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The Potential Impacts of Climate Change on Victorian Alpine Resorts A Report for the Alpine Resorts Co-ordinating Council The Potential Impacts of Climate Change on Victorian Alpine Resorts. A Report for the Alpine Resorts Co-ordinating Council R.M.B Harris1, T Remenyi1, N.L. Bindoff 1,2,3,4 1Antarctic Climate and Ecosystems Cooperative Research Centre (ACE CRC), Private Bag 80, University of Tasmania, Hobart TAS 7000 Australia [email protected], [email protected], [email protected] 2Centre for Australian Weather and Climate Research (CAWCR), CSIRO Marine and Atmospheric Research, Castray Esplanade Hobart TAS 7001 3Institute for Marine and Antarctic Studies (IMAS), University of Tasmania, Private Bag 129, Hobart TAS 7001 4ARC Centre of Excellence for Climate Systems Science, Private Bag 129, University of Tasmania, Hobart 7001, Australia © Copyright: The Antarctic Climate & Ecosystems Cooperative Research Centre 2016. This work is copyright. It may be reproduced in whole or in part for study or training purposes subject to the inclusion of an acknowledgement of the source, but not for commercial sale or use. Reproduction for purposes other than those listed above requires the written permission of the Antarctic Climate & Ecosystems Cooperative Research Centre. The ACE CRC is a unique collaboration between the Australian Antarctic Division, the Bureau of Meteorology, CSIRO, the University of Tasmania, the Australian Government’s Department of the Environment, the Alfred Wegener Institute for Polar and Marine Research (Germany), and the National Institute of Water and Atmospheric Research Ltd (New Zealand) and a consortium of supporting partners. It is funded by the Australian Government’s Cooperative Research Centres Programme. DISCLAIMER The material in this report is based on computer modelling projections for climate change scenarios and, as such, there are inherent uncertainties in the data. While every effort has been made to ensure the material in this report is accurate, Antarctic Climate & Ecosystems Cooperative Research Centre (ACE) provides no warranty, guarantee or representation that material is accurate, complete, up to date, non-infringing or fit for a particular purpose. The use of the material is entirely at the risk of a user. The user must independently verify the suitability of the material for its own use. To the maximum extent permitted by law, ACE, its participating organisations and their officers, employees, contractors and agents exclude liability for any loss, damage, costs or expenses whether direct, indirect, consequential including loss of profits, opportunity and third party claims that may be caused through the use of, reliance upon, or interpretation of the material in this report. CITATION Harris, R.M.B., Remenyi, T. and Bindoff, N.L. (2016) The Potential Impacts of Climate Change on Victorian Alpine Resorts. A Report to the Alpine Resorts Co-ordinating Council. Antarctic Climate and Ecosystems Cooperative Research Centre, Hobart, Australia. SCIENCE REVIEWERS The report was peer-reviewed by Dr James Risbey (CSIRO-CAWCR), Dr Michael Grose (CSIRO) and Dr Kevin Hennessy (CSIRO). The reviewers listed in this report have offered all comments and recommendations in good faith and in an unbiased and professional manner. At no time was the reviewer asked to verify or endorse the project conclusions and recommendations nor was the reviewer privy to the final draft of the report before its release. The reviewers’ role was solely advisory and should not be construed as an endorsement of the project findings by the reviewer or his /her employing organisation. Neither the reviewer nor his/her employing organisation provides any representation or warranty as to the accuracy or suitability of any project findings. Responsibility for all work done in connection with the project remains with the project team. DEFINITION OF TERMS AND ABBREVIATIONS USED IN THIS REPORT CCAM The Conformal Cubic Atmospheric Model (CCAM) is the regional climate model used to generate the Climate Futures for the Australian Alps projections. It was developed by the Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation (CSIRO). Climate projections A climate projection is a model-derived description of possible future climates under a given set of plausible scenarios of climate forcings (any influence on the climate that originates from outside the climate system itself). Climate projections differ from climate predictions because they depend on the emission/concentration/radiative forcing scenario used. Such scenarios are based on assumptions about future socio–economic and technological developments that are subject to substantial uncertainty. A projection is therefore a probabilistic statement of what could happen if certain assumed conditions prevail in the future. CMIP5 archive The Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 archive. The CMIP5 archive includes a standard set of model simulations that have been assessed as providing plausible projections of future climate change. Models admitted to the CMIP5 archive informed the IPCC’s Fifth Assessment Report. Emissions scenarios (RCP8.5) In the Fifth Assessment Report (AR5), the IPCC addressed the uncertainty about future rates of greenhouse gas and aerosol emissions using Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs). The four RCPs (2.6, 4.5, 6, and 8.5 W/m2) represent alternative greenhouse gas concentration trajectories resulting from different climate policies. Reported in this study is the high emissions scenario (RCP 8.5), which does not include any mitigation target, resulting in considerable increases in greenhouse gas emissions and concentrations over time, and a radiative forcing of 8.5W/m2 at the end of the century. RCP8.5 projects increases in global mean temperatures of 2.6–4.8°C for 2081-2100 (relative to 1986-2005). Over the past decade, global emissions have tracked the higher end of the RCP8.5 pathway. The RCPs replace the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) used in previous Assessment Reports. The emissions scenario used here, RCP 8.5, is fairly consistent with the highest SRES (A1FI), although median temperatures rise more slowly during 2035–2080, and faster during other periods in RCP8.5. RCP8.5 projects a similar acceleration in temperature to SRES A2, although median temperatures are consistently higher in the RCP8.5. Host models The Global Climate Models used in this study were ACCESS-1.0, CCSM4, CNRM-CM5, GFDL-CM3, MPI-ESM-LR and NorESM1-M. The range in projected changes across the six models is presented in Part II to indicate a range of plausible futures under climate change. IPCC The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change is the leading international body for the assessment of climate change. The IPCC releases Assessment Reports, which give an up-to-date overview of the current state of scientific knowledge about climate change. Baseline and Future time periods In Part I of this report the projected change in precipitation, snow cover and temperature are calculated between the means of the baseline period (1961-1990) and the end of century (2070- 2099). 30-year periods are used to incorporate the yearly and decadal variability that is natural in the climate system, for example, during droughts or cool seasons. In Part II we also present results for decadal periods relevant to management decisions. LaP The Landscapes and Policy Research Hub (http://www.nerplandscapes.edu.au/) was a multi- disciplinary research hub funded through the Australian Government’s National Environmental Research Program. The Climate Futures for the Australian Alps projections were carried out by the Climate Futures Group as part of the LaP research. Multi-model mean Some results are presented in this report as the average of six climate models. This approach is commonly used in climatology to provide a ‘central estimate’ of the projections. Since all climate models admitted to the CMIP5 archive are considered to represent plausible representations of possible futures, a range of climate models are used to incorporate the uncertainty due to the range in climate models. More information about climate models and climate change can be found in the Synthesis Report Summary for Policy Makers from the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, available from http://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar5/syr/ (IPCC 2014b) Contents Executive summary .................................................................................................................... 8 Summary of Part I: The Impact of Investing in Snowmaking ..................................................... 9 1.0 Review of literature relevant to assessing the economic viability of snow-making under climate change ............................................................................................................ 9 2.0 The relationship between visitor numbers and snow depth at Victorian alpine resorts .............................................................................................................................................. 10 Summary of Part II: Climate change in the Australian Alps region .......................................... 11 3.0 Changes in climate projected for the future in the Australian Alps region ................... 11 3.1 Changes projected to occur at the Victorian Alpine Resorts between current and future time periods .............................................................................................................
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