bioRxiv preprint first posted online Nov. 14, 2017; doi: http://dx.doi.org/10.1101/219428. The copyright holder for this preprint (which was not peer-reviewed) is the author/funder, who has granted bioRxiv a license to display the preprint in perpetuity. All rights reserved. No reuse allowed without permission. Title A Bayesian approach to mediation analysis predicts 206 causal target genes in Alzheimer’s disease Authors Yongjin Park+;1;2, Abhishek K Sarkar+;3, Liang He+;1;2, Jose Davila-Velderrain1;2, Philip L De Jager2;4, Manolis Kellis1;2 +: equal contribution. 1: Computer Science and Artificial Intelligence Laboratory, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge, MA, USA 2: Broad Institute of MIT and Harvard, Cambridge, MA, USA 3: Department of Human Genetics, University of Chicago, Chicago, IL, USA 4: Department of Neurology, Columbia University Medical Center, New York, NY, USA MK:
[email protected] Abstract Characterizing the intermediate phenotypes, such as gene expression, that mediate genetic effects on complex dis- eases is a fundamental problem in human genetics. Existing methods utilize genotypic data and summary statistics to identify putative disease genes, but cannot distinguish pleiotropy from causal mediation and are limited by overly strong assumptions about the data. To overcome these limitations, we develop Causal Multivariate Mediation within Extended Linkage disequilibrium (CaMMEL), a novel Bayesian inference framework to jointly model multiple medi- ated and unmediated effects relying only on summary statistics. We show in simulation that CaMMEL accurately distinguishes between mediating and pleiotropic genes unlike existing methods. We applied CaMMEL to Alzheimer’s disease (AD) and found 206 causal genes in sub-threshold loci (p < 10−4).