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Deciphering Chinese Deterrence Signalling in the New Era an Analytic Framework and Seven Case Studies

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Deciphering Chinese Deterrence Signalling in the New Era an Analytic Framework and Seven Case Studies AUSTRALIA C O R P O R A T I O N NATHAN BEAUCHAMP-MUSTAFAGA, DEREK GROSSMAN, KRISTEN GUNNESS, MICHAEL S. CHASE, MARIGOLD BLACK, NATALIA SIMMONS-THOMAS Deciphering Chinese Deterrence Signalling in the New Era An Analytic Framework and Seven Case Studies RR-A1074-1 A4 Cover text only.indd 1,3 5/14/21 1:33 AM The research described in this RAND Australia report was prepared for Australian Department of Defence and was conducted within RAND Australia under Contract HQ0034-16-D-0001. About RAND Australia RAND Australia’s mission is to help improve policy and decisionmaking through research and analysis. RAND’s publications do not necessarily reflect the opinions of its research clients and sponsors. To learn more about RAND Australia, visit www.rand.org/australia Published by the RAND Corporation, Santa Monica, Calif. © 2021 RAND Australia R® is a registered trademark. For more information on this publication, visit www.rand.org/t/RRA1074-1 Preface The purpose of this report is to examine how China’s approach to deterrence signalling is evolving along with its expanding objectives, growing military capabilities, and the availability of new communication channels, such as Chinese- and English-language social media. As China’s pursuit of its goals becomes more assertive, one critically important question for analysts and policymakers in Australia, the United States, and other regional countries is how to interpret China’s changing approach to deterrence signalling. This report is intended to contribute to a better understanding of deterrence and countercoercion across domains in the Indo-Pacific region at a time of increased friction and strategic competition with China. In particular, it presents a framework to evaluate China’s changing approach, one that is intended to enable analysts and policymakers in Australia, the United States, and other countries to appropriately characterise, interpret, and respond to Chinese deterrence signalling. This research received funding under the Australian Department of Defence Strategic Policy Grants Program. All views expressed in this report are those of the authors and do not necessarily represent the views of the Australian Department of Defence. The research was conducted within the International Security and Defense Policy Center of the RAND National Security Research Division (NSRD). NSRD conducts research and analysis for the Office of the Secretary of Defense, the U.S. Intelligence Community, U.S. State Department, allied foreign governments, and foundations. For more information on RAND Australia, or to contact the director, please visit www.rand.org/australia. iii Table of Contents Preface ............................................................................................................................................ iii Figures............................................................................................................................................ vi Tables ............................................................................................................................................ vii Summary ...................................................................................................................................... viii Acknowledgements ........................................................................................................................ xi Abbreviations ................................................................................................................................ xii 1. Introduction ................................................................................................................................. 1 Purpose of the Report ................................................................................................................. 3 A New Era of Ambition: China’s Growing Objectives .............................................................. 4 A New Era of Power: China’s Growing Military Capabilities ................................................... 7 A New Era of Signalling: China’s Growing Range of Communication Channels ................... 14 Research Approach ................................................................................................................... 16 Organisation of the Report ........................................................................................................ 17 2. Overview of Chinese Thinking on Deterrence ......................................................................... 18 Chinese Conception of Deterrence ........................................................................................... 18 Core Components: Capability, Resolve, and Communication ................................................. 20 Deterrence Phases: Peacetime, Crisis, and Wartime ................................................................ 22 Surveying Deterrence Actions .................................................................................................. 25 Psychological Emphasis and Deception ................................................................................... 35 Deterrence Communication ...................................................................................................... 39 Conclusion ................................................................................................................................ 43 3. A Framework for Deciphering Chinese Deterrence Signals ..................................................... 44 Past Research ............................................................................................................................ 44 Keeping Pace with Evolving Trends ........................................................................................ 45 Factor 1: Strategic Context ....................................................................................................... 46 Factor 2: Content ...................................................................................................................... 48 Factor 3: Intended Audience ..................................................................................................... 54 Factor 4: Authoritativeness ....................................................................................................... 56 Factor 5: Scope ......................................................................................................................... 61 A Six-Point Scale for Understanding China’s Resolve ............................................................ 62 Enduring Principles, Evolving Details ...................................................................................... 63 4. Recent Chinese Deterrence Signalling: Peacetime Case Studies ............................................. 64 Peacetime Case Study No. 1: Military Parades ........................................................................ 64 Peacetime Case Study No. 2: PLAAF Bomber Flights ............................................................ 78 Peacetime Case Study No. 3: Cross-Strait Tensions Since the 2016 Taiwanese Presidential Election ........................................................................................................... 90 Common Themes and Lessons for Australia ............................................................................ 97 iv 5. Recent Chinese Deterrence Signalling: Crisis Case Studies .................................................. 99 Emergency Case Study No. 1: 1995–1996 Taiwan Strait Crisis .............................................. 99 Emergency Case Study No. 2: 2017 Doklam Crisis with India .............................................. 104 Emergency Case Study No. 3: 2019 Hong Kong Democracy Protests .................................. 111 Emergency Case Study No. 4: Korean Peninsula Tensions ................................................... 117 Common Themes and Lessons for Australia .......................................................................... 130 6. Implications for Australia ....................................................................................................... 131 Changing Australia-China Relationship ................................................................................. 131 Australia’s More Active Regional Role Means More Divergence with China ...................... 132 Australia Moving Towards Centre of Strategic Competition with Closer U.S. Ties ............. 136 Greater Interaction with Chinese Military .............................................................................. 138 Deciphering Chinese Deterrence Signalling for Australia ..................................................... 140 Policy Recommendations ....................................................................................................... 143 References ................................................................................................................................... 147 v Figures Figure 2.1. Core Components of Chinese Deterrence ............................................................. 20 Figure 2.2. A List of Chinese Deterrence Actions ................................................................... 27 vi Tables Table 2.1. People’s Liberation Army Breakdown of Tailored Psychological Warfare ........... 39 Table 3.1. Hierarchy of Authoritativeness for Chinese Deterrence Messaging ...................... 57 Table 3.2. Summary of Analytic Framework for Deciphering Chinese Deterrence
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