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TO Doug Jones for Senate Campaign Team FROM Paul Maslin and Rick Sklarz FM3 Research RE: State of the Alabama U.S. Senate Race DATE June 16, 2020 A survey1 conducted among 601 likely November general election voters shows a highly competitive race between incumbent Democratic U.S. Senator Doug Jones and the likely Republican nominee and former Auburn University football coach, Tommy Tuberville. As Figure 1 shows, Tuberville’s three-point lead (47%-44%) is within the survey’s margin of error. Doug Jones received 96 percent of the African-American vote in 2017. If he receives just 92 support in November, the race is dead-even at 46-46. Figure 1: Vote for U.S. Senator Doug Jones Tommy Tuberville Undecided May 2020 Survey Vote 44% 47% 9% Adjusted African American 46% 46% 8% Support for Doug Jones It should be noted that this survey was conducted in mid-May, prior to the killing of George Floyd by Minneapolis police and subsequent protests around the nation calling for reforms to policing and an end to systemic racism. Since then, Joe Biden’s polling has improved 4-6 points nationally, and if that would have happened in Alabama, Trump’s margin would have shrunk from 53%-39% in mid-May down to about 10-points, which is consistent with our previous polling in Alabama. The narrowing of the Presidential vote may also benefit Doug Jones, easily putting him tied or even slightly ahead of Tuberville before making any adjustment or projection of the African American vote. Tuberville continues to hold a wide lead over Sessions among Republicans most likely to vote in the runoff. Tuberville’s advantage is more than 20-points (54%-32%), which is almost precisely what it was in the poll conducted after the March 2020 primary. (See Figure 2) With Donald Trump actively supporting Tuberville, absent some significant mistake or new development, it seems likely that he will defeat Jeff Sessions in the July runoff. Figure 2: Republican U.S. Senate Runoff Election U.S. Senate Republican Runoff Election May 2020 March 2020 Tommy Tuberville 54% 54% Jeff Sessions 32% 36% Undecided 14% 10% 1 Survey Methodology: From May 14-18, FM3 conducted a survey of 601 Alabama registered voters likely to cast a ballot in the November 2020 Election. The survey also includes an oversample of Republicans who are likely to vote in the July U.S. Senate runoff election. Interviews were conducted via landline and cell/mobile telephone by live interviewers. The sample margin of error for the November general election results is +/-4.0% at the 95% confidence level; the margin of error for population subgroups will be higher. Due to rounding, some percentages may not sum to 100%. 12100 Wilshire Boulevard, Suite 350 | Los Angeles, CA 90025 1999 Harrison St., Suite 2020 | Oakland, CA 94612 Phone: (310) 828-1183 | Fax: (310) 453-6562 Phone: (510) 451-9521 | Fax: (510) 451-0384 .

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