The Rising Tide of Conservatism in Turkey the Rising Tide of Conservatism in Turkey

The Rising Tide of Conservatism in Turkey The Rising Tide of Conservatism in Turkey Ali Çarkoğlu and Ersin Kalaycıoğlu the rising tide of conservatism in turkey Copyright © Ali Çarkoğlu and Ersin Kalaycıoğlu, 2009. Softcover reprint of the hardcover 1st edition 2009 978-0-230-60262-5 All rights reserved. First published in 2009 by PALGRAVE MACMILLAN® in the United States - a division of St. Martin’s Press LLC, 175 Fifth Avenue, New York, NY 10010. Where this book is distributed in the UK, Europe and the rest of the world, this is by Palgrave Macmillan, a division of Macmillan Publishers Limited, registered in England, company number 785998, of Houndmills, Basingstoke, Hampshire RG21 6XS. Palgrave Macmillan is the global academic imprint of the above companies and has companies and representatives throughout the world. Palgrave® and Macmillan® are registered trademarks in the United States, the United Kingdom, Europe and other countries. ISBN 978-1-349-37092-4 ISBN 978-0-230-62153-4 (eBook) DOI 10.1057/9780230621534 Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data Çarkoğlu, Ali, 1963– The rising tide of conservatism in Turkey / Ali Çarkoğlu and Ersin Kalaycioğlu. p.cm. 1. Conservatism—Turkey. 2. Turkey—Politics and government—1980– I. Kalaycioğlu, Ersin. II. Title. JC573.2.T9C37 2009 320.5209561—dc22 2008047726 A catalogue record of the book is available from the British Library. Design by Macmillan Publishing Solutions First edition: June 2009 10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 To Ayfer, Güres, Öykü, and Petek Contents List of Figures ix List of Tables xi Foreword and Acknowledgments xiii Introduction: Going Back to the Future 1 1 Shock, Awe, and Suspense 7 2 Change, Reform, and Fear 17 3 Socioeconomic Change and Accommodation 27 4 Coping with Uncertainty 65 5 Explaining the Character of Turkish Conservatism 75 6 Consequences of Conservatism for Turkey’s Domestic Politics 97 7 Consequences of Conservatism for Turkey’s Foreign Relations: Turkey, the EU, and the United States 121 Conclusion 141 Notes 151 Index 171 List of Figures 3.1 Religious conservatism vs. liberal-democratic variables 34 3.2 Authoritarianism and dogmatism scales 40 3.3 Old-fashioned values: Demographic variables 42 3.4 Old-fashioned values 43 3.5 Anomie/rulelessness and political inefficacy scales 45 3.6 Political-social intolerance, unwanted neighbors, and the total intolerance scale 52 3.7 Tolerance measures: Demographic variables 53 4.1 Attitudes toward uncertainty—1 66 4.2 Evaluations of uncertainty 67 4.3 Attitudes toward uncertainty—2 70 4.4 Net uncertainty attitudes at micro and macro levels 71 5.1 Self-evaluated conservatism 76 5.2.1 Conservatism and public policy preferences 77 5.2.2 Net responses in support of rendering policies easier 78 5.3 Factor plot for policy attitudes 81 5.4 Dimension of conservatism—1 84 5.5 Dimension of conservatism—2 84 7.1 Support for EU membership in a referendum setting, 1996–2007 122 List of Tables 3.1 An index of Alevi orientation 29 3.2 Worship practices of Muslim men in Turkey 31 4.1 Factor analysis: Attitudes toward uncertainty 69 5.1 Factor analysis of policy attitudes 80 5.2 Factor analysis: Dimensions of conservatism 82 5.3 Component correlation matrix 83 5.4 Explaining dimensions of conservatism and the status quo scale 86 6.1 The self-placement of the Turkish voting-age population on the left-right ideological spectrum in the national surveys (1990–2007) 98 6.2 Dimensions of conservatism: Shares of different clusters 103 6.3 Dimensions of the aggregate conservatism scale: Average cluster factor scores 104 6.4 Evaluations of the türban issue 106 6.5 Examples of pressure exerted on religion in Turkey (2006) 107 6.6.1 Conservatism and preferences concerning the türban ban 108 6.6.2 Conservatism and preferences concerning the türban ban 109 6.6.3 Conservatism and preferences concerning the türban ban 111 6.7.1 Attitudes toward change and reform 114 6.7.2 Attitudes toward change and reform 115 6.8 Protest potential in Turkey (2002, 2006, 2007) 117 6.9 Repression potential in Turkey (2002, 2006) 117 Foreword and Acknowledgments This book is the product of deliberations and arguments that originated from a series of surveys we conducted from the 1990s onward. More specifically, in chronological order, the research by Ali Çarkoğlu and Binnaz Toprak in 1999 gave clear indication of the strong influence of religion in Turkish sociopolitical behavior and attitudes. Later in 2003, a survey of attitudes toward women in business, politics, and society in Turkey conducted by Ersin Kalaycıoğlu and Binnaz Toprak unearthed some evidence that a staunch belief in traditional, parochial, and highly conservative norms about family life undermined the chances of girls and later women from getting an education, seek- ing employment in businesses away from home, and following interests and careers in politics. Research conducted by Ali Çarkoğlu, Fatos¸ Göks¸en and Murat Çizakça in 2004 on charitable foundations in Turkey similarly indicated that strong attachments to traditions and sensitivity exhibited toward their preservation played a critical role in social solidarity and charitable donations. It looked as if highly traditional and conservative standards, norms, and values were dominating Turkish society just as Turkey was transforming from an agricultural society into an industrial one and simultaneously becoming increasingly integrated into the global markets of the post–Cold War era. We further observed that while the new government policies of a liberal market economy and privatization were settling in, mounting criticisms of these practices as undermining national independence and bringing the country under Western domination were also developing. It was under the influence of these social, economic, and political events and research findings that we wanted to systematically examine the mind-set of the Turkish population in the early years of the twenty-first century. More specifically, we wanted to probe into why the Turkish population seemed to be becoming more conservative as the Turkish economy became more integrated with global markets and industrial develop- ment, urbanization, and overall socioeconomic change gained pace in the country. Was it change, the pace of rapid social mobilization, globalization, or democratization and freedom, which were setting roots in the country, that precipitated an interest in traditions, family, the state, the nation, and the like? Were the correlations between change and the increase in traditional, religious, and conservative values, beliefs, and practices that we thought we were observing in the previous studies of Turkish society in fact true? How then could we best account for the associations between rapid socioeconomic and cultural mutation and religiosity, traditionalism, family values, and conservatism? We shared our observations, preliminary findings, and speculations with our colleagues, university administrations, and organizations that fund social science research in Turkey. Our deliberations and debates generated interest among our colleagues and some potential xiv ● Foreword and Acknowledgments sponsors, who extended support to our research efforts, and we began to conduct focus group discussions in Istanbul, Kayseri, Trabzon, and Diyarbakir in late 2005. The focus group discussions—consisting of a voting-age (18 years and older) population of men and women around the country—not only further fueled our interest in our research matter but also provided us with valuable clues as to how we could ask various questions in and through a survey of mass beliefs, attitudes, values, and opinions. In late March through May of 2006 we were able to survey the socioeconomic and political attitudes, values, and opinions of about 1846 voting-age adults in Turkey. This book is a report of our findings from that field survey. Sabancı and Işık Universities and the Open Society Institute in Turkey thus sup- ported this book and the findings from the field survey on which it is based. We are very grateful for the financial support they extended to our survey project. We are also grateful for the efficient and kind service the Turkish Statistical Institute (TUIK) provided to us in drawing a nationally representative sample through a probability procedure we devised with it. Çağlayan Işık and Ebru Tetik of Frekans Fieldwork Company provided reliable research aid and coordinated the fieldwork organization. Ali Çarkoğlu is particularly grateful to the Netherlands Institute for Advanced Study in the Humanities and Social Sciences (NIAS) for providing a peaceful and comfortable working environment that helped him finalize the manuscript for publication in the fall of 2008. We would also like to extend our gratitude to our wives, Gül Çarkoğlu and Sema Kalaycıoğlu, for their understanding and encouragement during the field survey and the composition of this book. Our gratitude is also due to Anthony Wahl of Palgrave for his review and support of our initial proposal for this book and Emily Hue of Palgrave for keeping us on track and on schedule while composing this book. The secretarial help of İpek Dübüş, then at Işık University and now with the Istanbul Policy Center of Sabancı University, was invaluable to us, both in aiding coordination and maintaining our appointment schedules. Hasret Dikici Bilgin helped us prepare the index for our book. Our students at Sabancı University were the first to hear about our findings and as usual gave us their feedback and their healthy skeptical evaluations. The fact that some of them are using these findings as the basis of their own future research is our main source of academic reward..

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