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108288 Master Thesis Online Copenhagen Business School Master Thesis 17.05.2016 Do Indian advanced market acquisitions from service and manufacturing firms create shareholder value? Author: Tim Niklas Palm MSc. Economics and Business Administration in International Business Copenhagen Business School STU incl. tables & figures: 170.827, pages 75 Supervisor: Aradhna Aggarwal Department of International Economics and Management Copenhagen Business School Abstract The liberalization in the 1990s and the resulting increased FDI activity allowed India to become the world’s fastest growing major economy in 2016. However, India’s emergence as a source of foreign direct investment outflows is impressive for its level of development. The sources are Indian firms that increasingly acquire firms in OECD countries and therefore leapfrog the conventional growth cycle. In this context, the understanding whether or why this inorganic mode of expansion creates value for the acquiring firms and the country as a whole is limited. This thesis argues that advanced market acquisitions allow to internalize resources that are time consuming in developing and also difficult to trade through transactions. Thus, they constitute a strategic path to value creation for the acquiring firm. Advanced product and factor markets and a developed institutional environment ensure a high quality of the resource and therefore allow for high synergies for firms from resource poor developing countries. In essence, service and manufacturing firms are driving these outward flows from India. I argue that domestically demand serving manufacturing firms create more value than export oriented service firms as they entered the global market on a later stage and have a larger potential to upgrade their capabilities. Subsequently, I suggest that firm motivations have an effect on these performance outcomes. Asset-seeking firms that acquire advanced market firms allow for stronger complementariness to the existing capabilities than market expanding or diversifying firms which are more mature in terms of technology. Additionally, vertical integrating firms may allow for higher synergies due to the creation of a global value chain network. An event study of 72 advanced market acquisitions by listed Indian service and manufacturing firms during the period of 2010 to 2015 support these predictions. The event study is carried out using cumulative abnormal returns from different event windows surrounding the day of announcement (0), (-3,+3), and (-5,+5). The results draw conclusive inference about the efficiency of the Indian stock market but also indicate that the event window needs to be lengthened in order to capture the whole momentum of an acquisition announcement in the market. This thesis contributes to the growing stream of research on the determinants of successful acquisitions by emerging economy firms and proofs as a side note that resource dependent explanations are also applicable to the emerging market context. 1 Preface This thesis finishes my Master’s degree in International Business at Copenhagen Business School. An exchange at the Indian Institute of Management Calcutta raised my interest for the researched topic. CBS deserves my gratitude for allowing me to tackle this challenging area of research. The process has been both challenging and educational. Collecting the necessary data from Zephyr, Bloomberg, Yahoo finance and ThompsonOne Banker and applying the statistical programs Excel and STATA turned out to be a very time consuming and demanding process. However, the process has above all been rewarding and highly educational. It has been performed with great devotion throughout the semester. It is with great gratitude that I acknowledge my supervisor Professor Aradhna Aggarwal for her guidance, good feedback and support throughout this study. 2 ABSTRACT ................................................................................................................................................ 1 PREFACE ................................................................................................................................................... 2 LIST OF ABBREVIATIONS .................................................................................................................... 5 LIST OF FIGURES .................................................................................................................................... 5 LIST OF TABLES ...................................................................................................................................... 5 1. INTRODUCTION ............................................................................................................................. 6 1.1 OVERALL CONTEXT ..................................................................................................................... 6 1.2 PROBLEM SPECIFICATION ............................................................................................................ 8 1.3 PURPOSE .................................................................................................................................... 10 1.4 DELIMITATION OF THE RESEARCH AREA .................................................................................... 11 1.5 STRUCTURE ............................................................................................................................... 12 2. INDIAN OFDI BACKGROUND ................................................................................................... 13 2.1 IDP AND THE INDIAN FDI FLOWS .............................................................................................. 13 2.2 INDIAN OVERSEA ACQUISITIONS AND THE INSTITUTIONAL CONTEXT ......................................... 17 3. LITERATURE REVIEW AND HYPOTHESIS DEVELOPMENT ........................................... 19 3.1 LITERATURE REVIEW ................................................................................................................. 19 3.2 ADVANCED MARKET HYPOTHESIS.............................................................................................. 21 3.3 INDUSTRY SECTOR HYPOTHESES ................................................................................................ 23 3.4 M&A FIRM MOTIVES HYPOTHESES ............................................................................................ 27 3.4.1 Non-Value creating strategies .......................................................................................... 28 3.4.2 Value creating strategies .................................................................................................. 29 3.4.3 Acquisition motives in the Indian context ......................................................................... 30 3.4.4 Motivation classification .................................................................................................. 31 3.4.5 Hypotheses about firm motivation .................................................................................... 36 3.5 EFFICIENT MARKET HYPOTHESIS................................................................................................ 40 3.5.1 Introduction to the efficient market hypothesis ................................................................ 40 3.5.2 Efficient market hypothesis and event studies .................................................................. 42 4 METHODOLOGY .......................................................................................................................... 44 4.1 RESEARCH DESIGN .................................................................................................................... 44 4.2 DATA COLLECTION .................................................................................................................... 48 4.3 EVENT STUDY METHODOLOGY................................................................................................... 50 4.4 FORMULAS OF THE EVENT STUDY .............................................................................................. 52 4.5 STATISTICAL TESTS .................................................................................................................... 54 5 EMPIRICAL FINDINGS ............................................................................................................... 56 5.1 ADVANCED MARKET HYPOTHESIS.............................................................................................. 56 5.2 INDUSTRY TYPE HYPOTHESES .................................................................................................... 60 5.3 MOTIVATION OF FIRMS HYPOTHESES ......................................................................................... 62 6 CONCLUDING REMARKS .......................................................................................................... 67 6.1 DISCUSSION AND THEORETICAL IMPLICATIONS ......................................................................... 67 6.2 LIMITATIONS AND FUTURE RESEARCH ...................................................................................... 73 6.3 CONCLUSION ............................................................................................................................. 75 REFERENCE LIST ................................................................................................................................. 78 APPENDIX I ............................................................................................................................................
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