JOURNAL OF FINANCIAL AND QUANTITATIVE ANALYSIS Vol. 46, No. 5, Oct. 2011, pp. 1367–1405 COPYRIGHT 2011, MICHAEL G. FOSTER SCHOOL OF BUSINESS, UNIVERSITY OF WASHINGTON, SEATTLE, WA 98195 doi:10.1017/S0022109011000421 A Theory of Merger-Driven IPOs Jim Hsieh, Evgeny Lyandres, and Alexei Zhdanov∗ Abstract We propose a model that links a firm’s decision to go public with its subsequent takeover strategy. A private bidder does not know a firm’s true valuation, which affects its gain from a potential takeover. Consequently, a private bidder pursues a suboptimal restructur- ing policy. An alternative route is to complete an initial public offering (IPO) first. An IPO reduces valuation uncertainty, leading to a more efficient acquisition strategy, therefore enhancing firm value. We calibrate the model using data on IPOs and mergers and acqui- sitions (M&As). The resulting comparative statics generate several novel qualitative and quantitative predictions, which complement the predictions of other theories linking IPOs and M&As. For example, the time it takes a newly public firm to attempt an acquisition of another firm is expected to increase in the degree of valuation uncertainty prior to the firm’s IPO and in the cost of going public, and it is expected to decrease in the valuation surprise realized at the time of the IPO. We find strong empirical support for the model’s predictions. I. Introduction Recent empirical studies suggest that firms’ initial public offerings (IPOs) and mergers and acquisitions (M&As) are not unrelated. According to a survey of ∗Hsieh,
[email protected], School of Management, George Mason University, 4400 University Dr., Fairfax, VA 22030; Lyandres,
[email protected], School of Management, Boston University, 595 Commonwealth Ave., Boston, MA 02445; and Zhdanov,
[email protected], University of Lausanne, Extranef 237, Lausanne 1007, Switzerland and Swiss Finance Institute.