3-1 3-1 Introduction the Aviation Forecasts Provide Estimates For
Total Page:16
File Type:pdf, Size:1020Kb
CHAPTER 2 - INVENTORY CHAPTER 3 – AVIATION FORECASTS CHAPTER 3. AVIATION FORECASTS 3-1 CHAPTER 3. AVIATION FORECASTS 3-1 Introduction Formatted: Font: Bold Formatted: Body Text Indent, Outline The aviation forecasts provide estimates for future aviation demand at the airport. numbered + Level: 2 + Numbering Style: 1, 2, 3, … + Start at: 1 + Alignment: Left + Aligned Projections of aviation demand are important in the planning process as they at: 0" + Tab after: 0.5" + Indent at: 0.5", provide the basis for the following: Widow/Orphan control, Adjust space between Latin and Asian text, Adjust space between Asian text and numbers • Documentation of the role of the airport and determination of the type Formatted: Body Text Indent, Line spacing: aircraft to be accommodated in the future. single, Widow/Orphan control, Adjust space between Latin and Asian text, Adjust space between Asian text and numbers Formatted: Body Text Indent, Left, Indent: • Evaluation of the capacity of existing airport facilities and their ability to Left: 0", Widow/Orphan control, Allow hanging accommodate designsproposed expansion. punctuation, Adjust space between Latin and Asian text, Adjust space between Asian text and numbers Formatted: Body Text Indent, Left, Indent: • Estimation of extent of airside and landside facilities required for future Left: 0.69", Space Before: 6 pt, Bulleted + Level: 1 + Aligned at: 0.5" + Tab after: 0.75" years. + Indent at: 0.75", Tab stops: 0.94", List tab 3-2 Airport Role + Not at 0.75" Mammoth Yosemite Airport Formatted: Body Text Indent, Left, Indent: The Airport Layout Plan’s twenty-year aviation forecast projects markets, Left: 0.69", Space Before: 6 pt, Bulleted + enplanements, and aircraft types. The Airport Layout Plan forecast (“MMH / Level: 1 + Aligned at: 0.5" + Tab after: 0.75" + Indent at: 0.75", Tab stops: 0.94", List tab Brandley forecast”) was developed by Reinard W. Brandley. Brandley considered + Not at 0.75" various information during the development of this forecast, including forecasts prepared by Mammoth Mountain Ski Area’s airline consultant in collaboration with airport staff and Mammoth Lakes Tourism. The MMH / Brandley forecast includes an analysis of peer resort airport enplanements and airline operations that include Yampa Valley, Eagle County, Aspen-Pitkin, Glacier Park, Montrose Regional, and Friedman Memorial (Sun Valley) airports. It is reasonable to expect that MMH will have a growth rate similar to that of its peer review airports. These resorts were chosen because they are similar in nature to MMH and have successful air service programs. This growth is based on the continued support of the Town, Mammoth Lakes Tourism, the Eastern Sierra Air Alliance, Mono County, and Mammoth Mountain Ski Area (MMSA). As mentioned above, MMSA had aviation forecasts prepared by an airline consultant in collaboration with airport staff and Mammoth Lakes Tourism, which were considered in the development of the MMH / Brandley forecast. A draft MMSA forecast was presented to the community in a series of six workshops in the spring of 2011. The Town’s Airport Commission also held a workshop focused on the draft MMSA forecast in December 2011, at which the MMSA Formatted: Justified, Don't hyphenate, Tab airline consultant presented his assumptions and methodology. Subsequently, in stops: 3.25", Centered Mammoth Yosemite Airport Layout Plan May 2012 2-1 CHAPTER 2 - INVENTORY March 2012, the draft MMSA forecast was revised and is contained in Table No. 3-1. The revised MMSA forecast shows enplanements increasing from 26,200 in 2011 to approximately 130,500 in 2028, using a 60 percent load factor. The MMSA forecasts were evaluated and considered by Brandley in the development of the MMH / Brandley forecast of airline enplaned passengers and operations. The MMH / Brandley forecast of enplanements projects enplanements to increase from 26,200 in 2011 to 140,000 in 2030 (see Table No. 3-4), which equates to roughly 1,000 passengers arriving daily in the winter of 2030. 3-2 Airport Role MMH has previously served and will continue to serve as a general aviation an Formatted: Body Text Indent, Left, Indent: airport that provides service for aircraft from the Central and Western United Left: 0" States to bringbringing visitors to the recreation facilities available in the area, including skiing, fishing, and hiking, and access to Yosemite National Park. Recently, airline service has been instituted and is growing rapidly, which serves airports in the western. MMH is currently classified by F.A.A. as a Primary Commercial Service Airport. The new air service to the region is subsidized by the MMSA in the winter to maintain a competitive position with other ski resorts in the Western United States. Summer air service has been subsidized by a partnership of the Town, Mono County, and MMSA. MMSA and the Town are committed to maintaining and expanding airline service to MMH; MMSA has provided a letter of commitment to the Town to formalize the partnership (see Appendix A). The nearest commercial airport to Mammoth Lakes is Reno, Nevada, which is 170 miles to the north. A series of 90 hangars were constructed by the fixed base operator and sold to individual pilots and aircraft owners for aircraft storage at the airport while they are off enjoying the recreation facilities.. These hangars are in a pool, which is controlled and operated by the fixed base operator, providing covered storage space for visiting aircraft. Mammoth Yosemite AirportMMH only has eight based aircraft –- six single engine and two small twin-engine. The based aircraft population is not expected to change appreciably in the forecast period. The local operations at the airport are minimal. because of the visitor-based recreational resort nature of MMH. While locally based operations at the airport are minimal, there are a significant number of itinerant operations at the airport. MMH serves GA aircraft ranging from the small single-engine propeller aircraft to large business jets on a year round basis. MMH also serves a growing airline operation. It is expected that these operations will continue at MMH and that there will be significant growth in the airline and business aircraft operations. There are three other general aviation airports within 50 miles of Mammoth Formatted: Body Text Indent, Left, Indent: Left: 0", Widow/Orphan control, Adjust space Yosemite Airport.MMH. According to F.A.A. Airport Master Records, Eastern between Latin and Asian text, Adjust space Sierra Regional Airport in Bishop has 64 based aircraft, Lee Vining Airport has 1 between Asian text and numbers based aircraft, and Bryant Field in Bridgeport has 1 based aircraft. Formatted: Justified, Don't hyphenate, Tab stops: 3.25", Centered Mammoth Yosemite Airport Layout Plan May 2012 2-2 CHAPTER 2 - INVENTORY Formatted: Body Text Indent, Widow/Orphan control, Adjust space between Latin and Asian 3-3 3-3 Projections text, Adjust space between Asian text and numbers Mammoth Yosemite Airport is a commercialMMH airport servingserves the Town of Formatted: Font: Bold, Underline Mammoth Lakes and surrounding recreational areas. Aviation activities generally result from demand for Formatted: Body Text Indent, Outline access to the Mammoth Mountain Ski AreaMMSA and numbered + Level: 2 + Numbering Style: 1, 2, 3, … + Start at: 1 + Alignment: Left + Aligned at: 0" + Tab after: 0.5" + Indent at: 0.5", Widow/Orphan control, Adjust space between Latin and Asian text, Adjust space between Asian text and numbers Mammoth Yosemite Airport Layout Plan July 2011 3-1 Formatted: Body Text Indent, Line spacing: single, Widow/Orphan control, Adjust space between Latin and Asian text, Adjust space between Asian text and numbers Formatted: Font: Times New Roman, 10 pt Formatted: Font: Times New Roman, 10 pt Formatted: Font: Times New Roman, 10 pt Formatted: Justified, Don't hyphenate, Tab stops: 3.25", Centered Mammoth Yosemite Airport Layout Plan May 2012 2-3 CHAPTER 2 - INVENTORY CHAPTER 3 – AVIATION FORECASTS Formatted: Font: 11 pt Formatted: Body Text Indent, Left, Indent: Left: 0", Widow/Orphan control, Allow hanging the summer recreation facilities including hiking, fishing, and access to Yosemite punctuation, Adjust space between Latin and Asian text, Adjust space between Asian text and National Park. Previously theseThese demands wereare satisfied by general numbers aviation aircraft ranging in size from light single-engine propeller aircraft to large Formatted: Body Text Indent, Widow/Orphan jets ofup to the Gulfstream G V class. Airline and automobiles and buses. MMH control, Adjust space between Latin and Asian began commercial airline operations began in 2008 during the winter months and text, Adjust space between Asian text and havehas expanded rapidly since then. numbers Formatted: Body Text Indent, Left, Indent: Left: 0", Widow/Orphan control, Allow hanging Aviation activity levels result from interaction of demand and supply factors. The punctuation, Adjust space between Latin and demand for aviation is generally a function of demographic and economic Asian text, Adjust space between Asian text and numbers activities, but at this airport recreation activities are the main attraction. Supply Formatted: Body Text Indent, Line spacing: factors that influence activity levels include cost, competition, and regulations. single, Widow/Orphan control, Adjust space There While there are very few aircraft based at this airport, but currently there is between Latin and Asian text, Adjust space significant