CHAPTER 2 - INVENTORY
CHAPTER 3 – AVIATION FORECASTS
CHAPTER 3. AVIATION FORECASTS
3-1 CHAPTER 3. AVIATION FORECASTS
3-1 Introduction Formatted: Font: Bold Formatted: Body Text Indent, Outline The aviation forecasts provide estimates for future aviation demand at the airport. numbered + Level: 2 + Numbering Style: 1, 2, 3, … + Start at: 1 + Alignment: Left + Aligned Projections of aviation demand are important in the planning process as they at: 0" + Tab after: 0.5" + Indent at: 0.5", provide the basis for the following: Widow/Orphan control, Adjust space between Latin and Asian text, Adjust space between Asian text and numbers • Documentation of the role of the airport and determination of the type Formatted: Body Text Indent, Line spacing: aircraft to be accommodated in the future. single, Widow/Orphan control, Adjust space between Latin and Asian text, Adjust space between Asian text and numbers Formatted: Body Text Indent, Left, Indent: • Evaluation of the capacity of existing airport facilities and their ability to Left: 0", Widow/Orphan control, Allow hanging accommodate designsproposed expansion. punctuation, Adjust space between Latin and Asian text, Adjust space between Asian text and numbers Formatted: Body Text Indent, Left, Indent: • Estimation of extent of airside and landside facilities required for future Left: 0.69", Space Before: 6 pt, Bulleted + Level: 1 + Aligned at: 0.5" + Tab after: 0.75" years. + Indent at: 0.75", Tab stops: 0.94", List tab 3-2 Airport Role + Not at 0.75" Mammoth Yosemite Airport Formatted: Body Text Indent, Left, Indent: The Airport Layout Plan’s twenty-year aviation forecast projects markets, Left: 0.69", Space Before: 6 pt, Bulleted + enplanements, and aircraft types. The Airport Layout Plan forecast (“MMH / Level: 1 + Aligned at: 0.5" + Tab after: 0.75" + Indent at: 0.75", Tab stops: 0.94", List tab Brandley forecast”) was developed by Reinard W. Brandley. Brandley considered + Not at 0.75" various information during the development of this forecast, including forecasts prepared by Mammoth Mountain Ski Area’s airline consultant in collaboration with airport staff and Mammoth Lakes Tourism. The MMH / Brandley forecast includes an analysis of peer resort airport enplanements and airline operations that include Yampa Valley, Eagle County, Aspen-Pitkin, Glacier Park, Montrose Regional, and Friedman Memorial (Sun Valley) airports. It is reasonable to expect that MMH will have a growth rate similar to that of its peer review airports. These resorts were chosen because they are similar in nature to MMH and have successful air service programs. This growth is based on the continued support of the Town, Mammoth Lakes Tourism, the Eastern Sierra Air Alliance, Mono County, and Mammoth Mountain Ski Area (MMSA).
As mentioned above, MMSA had aviation forecasts prepared by an airline consultant in collaboration with airport staff and Mammoth Lakes Tourism, which were considered in the development of the MMH / Brandley forecast. A draft MMSA forecast was presented to the community in a series of six workshops in the spring of 2011. The Town’s Airport Commission also held a workshop focused on the draft MMSA forecast in December 2011, at which the MMSA Formatted: Justified, Don't hyphenate, Tab airline consultant presented his assumptions and methodology. Subsequently, in stops: 3.25", Centered
Mammoth Yosemite Airport Layout Plan May 2012 2-1 CHAPTER 2 - INVENTORY
March 2012, the draft MMSA forecast was revised and is contained in Table No. 3-1. The revised MMSA forecast shows enplanements increasing from 26,200 in 2011 to approximately 130,500 in 2028, using a 60 percent load factor. The MMSA forecasts were evaluated and considered by Brandley in the development of the MMH / Brandley forecast of airline enplaned passengers and operations.
The MMH / Brandley forecast of enplanements projects enplanements to increase from 26,200 in 2011 to 140,000 in 2030 (see Table No. 3-4), which equates to roughly 1,000 passengers arriving daily in the winter of 2030.
3-2 Airport Role
MMH has previously served and will continue to serve as a general aviation an Formatted: Body Text Indent, Left, Indent: airport that provides service for aircraft from the Central and Western United Left: 0" States to bringbringing visitors to the recreation facilities available in the area, including skiing, fishing, and hiking, and access to Yosemite National Park. Recently, airline service has been instituted and is growing rapidly, which serves airports in the western. MMH is currently classified by F.A.A. as a Primary Commercial Service Airport. The new air service to the region is subsidized by the MMSA in the winter to maintain a competitive position with other ski resorts in the Western United States. Summer air service has been subsidized by a partnership of the Town, Mono County, and MMSA. MMSA and the Town are committed to maintaining and expanding airline service to MMH; MMSA has provided a letter of commitment to the Town to formalize the partnership (see Appendix A). The nearest commercial airport to Mammoth Lakes is Reno, Nevada, which is 170 miles to the north.
A series of 90 hangars were constructed by the fixed base operator and sold to individual pilots and aircraft owners for aircraft storage at the airport while they are off enjoying the recreation facilities.. These hangars are in a pool, which is controlled and operated by the fixed base operator, providing covered storage space for visiting aircraft. Mammoth Yosemite AirportMMH only has eight based aircraft –- six single engine and two small twin-engine. The based aircraft population is not expected to change appreciably in the forecast period. The local operations at the airport are minimal. because of the visitor-based recreational resort nature of MMH.
While locally based operations at the airport are minimal, there are a significant number of itinerant operations at the airport. MMH serves GA aircraft ranging from the small single-engine propeller aircraft to large business jets on a year round basis. MMH also serves a growing airline operation. It is expected that these operations will continue at MMH and that there will be significant growth in the airline and business aircraft operations.
There are three other general aviation airports within 50 miles of Mammoth Formatted: Body Text Indent, Left, Indent: Left: 0", Widow/Orphan control, Adjust space Yosemite Airport.MMH. According to F.A.A. Airport Master Records, Eastern between Latin and Asian text, Adjust space Sierra Regional Airport in Bishop has 64 based aircraft, Lee Vining Airport has 1 between Asian text and numbers based aircraft, and Bryant Field in Bridgeport has 1 based aircraft. Formatted: Justified, Don't hyphenate, Tab stops: 3.25", Centered
Mammoth Yosemite Airport Layout Plan May 2012 2-2 CHAPTER 2 - INVENTORY
Formatted: Body Text Indent, Widow/Orphan control, Adjust space between Latin and Asian 3-3 3-3 Projections text, Adjust space between Asian text and numbers Mammoth Yosemite Airport is a commercialMMH airport servingserves the Town of Formatted: Font: Bold, Underline Mammoth Lakes and surrounding recreational areas. Aviation activities generally result from demand for Formatted: Body Text Indent, Outline access to the Mammoth Mountain Ski AreaMMSA and numbered + Level: 2 + Numbering Style: 1, 2, 3, … + Start at: 1 + Alignment: Left + Aligned at: 0" + Tab after: 0.5" + Indent at: 0.5", Widow/Orphan control, Adjust space between Latin and Asian text, Adjust space between Asian text and numbers Mammoth Yosemite Airport Layout Plan July 2011 3-1 Formatted: Body Text Indent, Line spacing: single, Widow/Orphan control, Adjust space between Latin and Asian text, Adjust space between Asian text and numbers Formatted: Font: Times New Roman, 10 pt Formatted: Font: Times New Roman, 10 pt Formatted: Font: Times New Roman, 10 pt
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Mammoth Yosemite Airport Layout Plan May 2012 2-3 CHAPTER 2 - INVENTORY
CHAPTER 3 – AVIATION FORECASTS Formatted: Font: 11 pt Formatted: Body Text Indent, Left, Indent: Left: 0", Widow/Orphan control, Allow hanging the summer recreation facilities including hiking, fishing, and access to Yosemite punctuation, Adjust space between Latin and Asian text, Adjust space between Asian text and National Park. Previously theseThese demands wereare satisfied by general numbers aviation aircraft ranging in size from light single-engine propeller aircraft to large Formatted: Body Text Indent, Widow/Orphan jets ofup to the Gulfstream G V class. Airline and automobiles and buses. MMH control, Adjust space between Latin and Asian began commercial airline operations began in 2008 during the winter months and text, Adjust space between Asian text and havehas expanded rapidly since then. numbers Formatted: Body Text Indent, Left, Indent: Left: 0", Widow/Orphan control, Allow hanging Aviation activity levels result from interaction of demand and supply factors. The punctuation, Adjust space between Latin and demand for aviation is generally a function of demographic and economic Asian text, Adjust space between Asian text and numbers activities, but at this airport recreation activities are the main attraction. Supply Formatted: Body Text Indent, Line spacing: factors that influence activity levels include cost, competition, and regulations. single, Widow/Orphan control, Adjust space There While there are very few aircraft based at this airport, but currently there is between Latin and Asian text, Adjust space significant activity by general aviation aircraft bringing visitors to the area, and between Asian text and numbers recently by commercial airlines bringing visitors to the area since 2008. The Formatted: Underline basic steps for forecasting aviation activity at this airport are presented herewith. Formatted: Body Text Indent, Outline numbered + Level: 3 + Numbering Style: 1, 2, 3, … + Start at: 1 + Alignment: Left + Aligned 3-3.1 3-3.1 Aviation Activity Parameters and Measures to be Forecast at: 0" + Tab after: 0.5" + Indent at: 0.5", Widow/Orphan control, Adjust space between Latin and Asian text, Adjust space between The major activities and measuredmeasures to be forecast include: Asian text and numbers Formatted: Body Text Indent, Line spacing: Based aircraft single, Widow/Orphan control, Adjust space Annual Operations – Itinerant, Local, and Total between Latin and Asian text, Adjust space between Asian text and numbers Fleet Mix – Number and Type of Operations Enplaned Passengers on Formatted: Body Text Indent, Indent: Left: Commercial Aircraft 0", Widow/Orphan control, Adjust space Fleet Mix – Number and Type of Operations between Latin and Asian text, Adjust space Peak Operations between Asian text and numbers Critical Aircraft Formatted: Body Text Indent, Line spacing: single, Widow/Orphan control, Adjust space Comparison of Airport Planning to TAF Forecast ForecastsPeak between Latin and Asian text, Adjust space Operations between Asian text and numbers Based aircraft Design Aircraft Formatted: Font: Times New Roman, 10 pt Formatted: Font: (Default) Arial, 12 pt 3-3.2 Formatted: Font: (Default) Arial, 12 pt
Formatted: Font: (Default) Arial, 12 pt 3-3.2 Collect and Review Previous Airport Forecasts Formatted: Font: (Default) Arial, 12 pt
Formatted: Font: (Default) Arial, 12 pt AirportThe most recent forecasts were prepared by Ricondo Associates in a report dated July 17, Formatted ... [26] 2000. This study was conducted to determine airport requirements for the Formatted: Font: Times New Roman, 10 pt proposed institution ofover 12 years ago and envisioned B757 non-stop flights Formatted ... [27] from Chicago and Dallas- Ft. Worth to Mammoth Yosemite Airport by American Formatted: Underline
Airlines. The American Airlines service was curtailed because of environmental Formatted ... [28] constraints and is replaced by shorter commercial flights, mainly from the Formatted: Font: Times New Roman, 10 pt Western United States. As a result, there is. Today a different market that is Formatted ... [29] being served and much of the forecast data presented in the Ricondo reportso Formatted historical forecasts will not be usefulused for this study. ... [30] Formatted: Justified, Don't hyphenate, Tab stops: 3.25", Centered
Mammoth Yosemite Airport Layout Plan May 2012 2-4 CHAPTER 2 - INVENTORY
3-3.3 3-3.3 Data Collection Formatted: Underline Formatted: Body Text Indent, Outline Pertinent data available for all demographics used in these forecasts were collected and used in this study. numbered + Level: 3 + Numbering Style: 1, 2, 3, … + Start at: 1 + Alignment: Left + Aligned The most recent F.A.A. Terminal Area Forecasts (TAF) were obtained fromfor historical and forecast at: 0" + Tab after: 0.5" + Indent at: 0.5", aviation activity for the entire United States, the F.A.A. Southwest Regional areaWestern Pacific Widow/Orphan control, Adjust space between Region, and the Mammoth Yosemite Latin and Asian text, Adjust space between Asian text and numbers Airport.MMH. Forecasts presented in the California Aviation System Plan Formatted: Body Text Indent, Widow/Orphan (CASP) were also obtained and reviewed. The data collected included the control, Adjust space between Latin and Asian following: text, Adjust space between Asian text and numbers Formatted: Font: Times New Roman, 10 pt Formatted: Font: Times New Roman, 10 pt Mammoth Yosemite Airport Layout Plan July 2011 Formatted: Font: Times New Roman, 10 pt 3-2 Formatted: Font: Times New Roman, 10 pt Formatted: Body Text Indent, Left, Indent: Left: 0", Widow/Orphan control, Allow hanging punctuation, Adjust space between Latin and Asian text, Adjust space between Asian text and numbers
Formatted: Justified, Don't hyphenate, Tab stops: 3.25", Centered
Mammoth Yosemite Airport Layout Plan May 2012 2-5 CHAPTER 2 - INVENTORY
CHAPTER 3 – AVIATION FORECASTS
• • Population – The population of the Town of Mammoth Lakes and all of Formatted: Font: Not Italic, No underline Mono County is very small and, as a result, the number of based aircraft Formatted: Body Text Indent, Left, Indent: at the airport is small and the influence of population on airport operations Left: 0.75", Bulleted + Level: 1 + Aligned at: 0.25" + Tab after: 0.5" + Indent at: 0.5", in this case is not significant. Widow/Orphan control, Allow hanging punctuation, Adjust space between Latin and Asian text, Adjust space between Asian text and numbers, Tab stops: 1", List tab + Not at 0.5" • • Employment – The major employment in the area is service and Formatted: Font: Not Italic, No underline government. As a result, employment in the area will not have a Formatted: Body Text Indent, Left, Indent: significant influence on aviation forecasts. Left: 0.75", Space Before: 12 pt, Bulleted + Level: 1 + Aligned at: 0.25" + Tab after: 0.5" + Indent at: 0.5", Widow/Orphan control, Allow hanging punctuation, Adjust space • • Enplaned Passengers – Mammoth Mountain MMSA is responsible for between Latin and Asian text, Adjust space all winter airline contracts for service to MMH. MMSA studies of skiing between Asian text and numbers, Tab stops: 1", List tab + Not at 0.5" activity at Mammoth Mountain as expressed in Annual Skier Days decreased significantly with the institution of airline service to the Colorado Formatted: Font: Not Italic, No underline Ski Resorts. Studies also show there is a direct relationship between Formatted: Font: Not Italic, No underline available airline service and the number of skier days recorded in an area. Formatted: Font: (Default) Arial, 12 pt To regain their competitive position, MMSA worked to obtain airline Formatted: Font: (Default) Arial, 12 pt, Not contracts and sought a partnership with the Town to provide service to Italic, No underline MMH. MMSA is committed to continue and expand this service. The Formatted: Font: (Default) Arial, 12 pt Town and Mammoth Yosemite Airport. Lakes Tourism have since added Formatted: Font: (Default) Arial, 12 pt additional partners: Mono County and The Eastern Sierra Air Alliance. Formatted: Font: (Default) Arial, 12 pt Formatted: Font: (Default) Arial, 12 pt, Not The Town, MMSA, and Mammoth Mountain hasLakes Tourism have Italic, No underline developed a plan for service by airlines for the period 2008 through Formatted: Font: (Default) Arial, 12 pt 2027.2028. This plan is included as Table No. 3-1. In this This table they Formatted: Font: (Default) Arial, 12 pt indicateindicates total number of seats available and diddoes not apply Formatted: Font: (Default) Arial, 12 pt load factors. Load factors of approximately 60 percent have been utilized Formatted: Body Text Indent, Left, Indent: to convert seats to enplaned passengers. This conversion is included in First line: 0", Space Before: 12 pt, Widow/Orphan control, Allow hanging Table No. 3-2.3. Table No. 3-1 lists the forecast number of airline punctuation, Adjust space between Latin and operations. One operation represents one aircraft departure, which Asian text, Adjust space between Asian text and represents two operations as used in this study. It will be noted that a numbers major part of the airline operations is expected to occur in the late fall and winter months, which is the ski season at Mammoth Mountain. The spring/summer passengers are forecast to be one-third to one-half those
in the winter. For comparative purposes, Table No. 3-23 also includes Formatted: Body Text Indent, Left, Indent: TAF historical and forecast enplaned passengers and aircraft operations Left: 0.75", Space Before: 12 pt, Bulleted + Level: 1 + Aligned at: 0.25" + Tab after: 0.5" for foursix other airports that serve similar needs as Mammoth Yosemite + Indent at: 0.5", Widow/Orphan control, AirportMMH. All of these data were used as input in developing the airport Allow hanging punctuation, Adjust space forecasts of enplaned passengers. between Latin and Asian text, Adjust space between Asian text and numbers, Tab stops: 1", List tab + Not at 0.5" Formatted: Font: Not Italic, No underline • • Based Aircraft – Historical and forecast based aircraft data were Formatted: Justified, Don't hyphenate, Tab collected from the F.A.A. TAF for the entire United States system, the stops: 3.25", Centered
Mammoth Yosemite Airport Layout Plan May 2012 2-6 CHAPTER 2 - INVENTORY
F.A.A. SouthwestWestern Pacific Region, and the Mammoth Yosemite Airport. MMH. Historical and forecast based aircraft data for Mammoth Yosemite AirportMMH were also collected from the California Aviation System Plan (CASP). ) and from the Airport. These data, converted to MMH based aircraft, are presented on Plate 3-1.
Formatted: Font: Not Italic, No underline • • Annual Aircraft Operations – Historical and forecast annual aircraft Formatted: Body Text Indent, Left, Indent: operation data were obtained from the F.A.A. TAF for the entire United Left: 0.75", Space Before: 12 pt, Bulleted + Level: 1 + Aligned at: 0.25" + Tab after: 0.5" States system, the F.A.A. SouthwestWestern Pacific Region, and the + Indent at: 0.5", Widow/Orphan control, Mammoth Yosemite Airport.MMH. Data werewas also collected from the Allow hanging punctuation, Adjust space between Latin and Asian text, Adjust space CASP reports. These data, converted to MMH operations, are included between Asian text and numbers, Tab stops: on Plate 3-2. 1", List tab + Not at 0.5" Formatted: Font: Not Italic, No underline Formatted: Body Text Indent, Left, Indent: • • Fleet Mix – Fleet mix data were acquired from the Airport and include Left: 0.75", Space Before: 12 pt, Bulleted + the fleet mix for the itinerant and local general aviation activities. The Level: 1 + Aligned at: 0.25" + Tab after: 0.5" + Indent at: 0.5", Widow/Orphan control, general aviation fleet mix ranges from light single-engine propeller aircraft Allow hanging punctuation, Adjust space to light twin-engine propeller aircraft to the small jet powered aircraft, between Latin and Asian text, Adjust space between Asian text and numbers, Tab stops: larger piston aircraft, and the large jet powered aircraft of the G V class. 1", List tab + Not at 0.5" The fleet mix for the airlines will be determined by the contracts between Formatted: Font: Not Italic, No underline the airline and Mammoth MountainMMSA and are indicated in Table No. Formatted: Font: Not Italic, No underline 3-1. It will beis noted that currently the airlines are using Q400 aircraft and RJ 700CRJ700 aircraft. Formatted: Strikethrough
Mammoth Yosemite Airport Layout Plan July 2011 3-3
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Mammoth Yosemite Airport Layout Plan May 2012 2-7 CHAPTER 2 - INVENTORY
CHAPTER 3 – AVIATION FORECASTS
They anticipate that in upcoming years they will add B 737 and A 319 aircraft.
Formatted: Font: Not Italic, No underline • • Helicopter Operations and Based Helicopters – There are no based Formatted: Body Text Indent, Indent: Left: helicopters at the airport. 0.75", Space Before: 12 pt, After: 12 pt, Bulleted + Level: 1 + Aligned at: 0.25" + Tab after: 0.5" + Indent at: 0.5", Widow/Orphan control, Allow hanging punctuation, Adjust 3-3.4 3-3.4 Forecast Methods space between Latin and Asian text, Adjust space between Asian text and numbers, Tab stops: 1", List tab + Not at 0.5" RegressionFor based aircraft and general aviation operations regression and Formatted: Body Text Indent, Outline trend analyses were conducted using population as the comparable feature. numbered + Level: 3 + Numbering Style: 1, 2, Share analyses were used with share of based aircraft and operations compared 3, … + Start at: 1 + Alignment: Left + Aligned at: 0" + Tab after: 0.5" + Indent at: 0.5", to the total National and Western Pacific Region numbers. In all evaluations Widow/Orphan control, Adjust space between historical data were used to develop a reasonable relationship between the Latin and Asian text, Adjust space between Asian text and numbers number of based aircraft or number of aircraft operations per unit of population. This ratio was applied to the forecast population data available from local Formatted: Underline agencies. Formatted: Body Text Indent, Widow/Orphan control, Adjust space between Latin and Asian text, Adjust space between Asian text and In the share analysis the historical share of total aircraft based at Mammoth numbers Yosemite AirportMMH compared to those based at either the total U.S. airports Formatted: Body Text Indent, Left, Indent: Left: 0", Widow/Orphan control, Allow hanging or the F.A.A. SouthernWestern Pacific Regional Airports was determined. This punctuation, Adjust space between Latin and ratio was applied to the TAF forecasts for the total U.S. based aircraft and Asian text, Adjust space between Asian text and operations and the total SouthwestWestern Pacific Region based aircraft and numbers operations. Formatted: Body Text Indent, Widow/Orphan control, Adjust space between Latin and Asian text, Adjust space between Asian text and For theForecasts for total itinerant operations were established by historical data numbers obtained from the Airport Management. In addition to the small single and twin Formatted: Body Text Indent, Left, Indent: engine propeller-driven aircraft that use the airport for skiing and other Left: 0", Widow/Orphan control, Adjust space between Latin and Asian text, Adjust space recreational activities, there are significant numbers of larger propeller-driven and between Asian text and numbers turbojet aircraft that utilize the airport. The use of this airport by the larger aircraft Formatted: Body Text Indent, Widow/Orphan has increased significantly over the past 10 years and this trend is expected to control, Adjust space between Latin and Asian continue. text, Adjust space between Asian text and numbers
For airline operations, both enplaned passengers and operations, the forecasts Formatted: Body Text Indent, Left, Indent: Left: 0", Widow/Orphan control, Allow hanging prepared by Mammoth Mountain were used and these were compared with punctuation, Adjust space between Latin and historical data from similar MMH / Brandley forecast was developed taking into Asian text, Adjust space between Asian text and account the MMSA forecast, the historical and forecast growth at airports numbers throughout the United States starting with the time that airline service began at each airport.serving similar markets, and local considerations including population and airport constraints. The airports included in this comparative study were Yampa Valley Airport, Eagle County Regional Airport and , Aspen- Pitkin County Airport, and Montrose Regional Airport located in Colorado, and Glacier Park International Airport located in Montana., and Friedman Memorial Airport located in Idaho. All of these airports serve major skiing facilities similar Formatted: Justified, Don't hyphenate, Tab stops: 3.25", Centered
Mammoth Yosemite Airport Layout Plan May 2012 2-8 CHAPTER 2 - INVENTORY
to Mammoth Mountain and many of them also serve summer recreation facilities and national parks similar to Mammoth. Formatted: Body Text Indent, Widow/Orphan control, Adjust space between Latin and Asian 3-3.5 A peer market comparison study has been completed for the six peer text, Adjust space between Asian text and airports studied and Mammoth Yosemite Airport. This study compares airline numbers enplanements, population, skier days, and other pertinent relationships of all studied peer airports. The results of this study are included in Table No. 3-2. The airports included in the peer market comparison, except for Glacier Park International Airport, are similar in many respects to MMH, and therefore, it can be expected that the growth pattern for airline activity at MMH will be similar to that at the peer airports provided MMSA continues the airline subsidy program. Below are some of the factors these markets have in common with MMH and were used to help develop the MMH / Brandley forecast:
Skiing is the Town’s major economic driving factor Long term revenue guarantee agreements with airlines Large number of “Annual Skier Days” Summer recreational facilities Small permanent population
These comparative studies show that Mammoth had lower enplanements and enplanements per population unit and significantly lower enplanements per skier day than the peer airports/markets (Table No. 3-2). This discrepancy is typical of a new service and shows a great opportunity for growth in enplanements at MMH. As a result, the number of enplanements can be expected to grow significantly as airline service to MMH matures.
MMSA has a major impact on airline activity and growth due to their revenue guarantee plan, which they have pledged to continue. With continued support from MMSA it is reasonable to expect the airline growth patterns for these peer airports to be applicable to MMH forecast growth. In the summer Mammoth Lakes Tourism, Mono County, and the Town also participate in the airline subsidy program, and the Town provides operational support year round.
Letters indicating commitment for continued support of the airline operation and growth are included in Appendix A from:
Mammoth Mountain Ski Area (MMSA) Mammoth Lakes Tourism Horizon Air Sky West Airlines
These are the major contributors to airline subsidies.
Funding for airline service at Alpine Resort Airports has been studied by Mr. Kent Meyers, Air Planners, and the results of this study are included in Appendix B. This study shows that all of the peer airports noted in this report provide subsidies to the airlines backed by the local ski resort. Formatted: Justified, Don't hyphenate, Tab stops: 3.25", Centered
Mammoth Yosemite Airport Layout Plan May 2012 2-9 CHAPTER 2 - INVENTORY
3-3.5 Evaluation of Forecasts Formatted: Underline Formatted: Body Text Indent, Outline The historical data and forecast data for based fixed wing aircraft and local numbered + Level: 3 + Numbering Style: 1, 2, 3, … + Start at: 1 + Alignment: Left + Aligned annual operations of fixed wing aircraft are presented graphically for each at: 0" + Tab after: 0.5" + Indent at: 0.5", analysis method used. These data are shown on Plate 3-1 for based aircraft and Widow/Orphan control, Adjust space between Latin and Asian text, Adjust space between Plate 3-2 for annual aircraft operations of fixed wing aircraft. Asian text and numbers
Formatted: Body Text Indent, Widow/Orphan 3-3.5.1 Based Aircraft – Fixed Wing control, Adjust space between Latin and Asian text, Adjust space between Asian text and On Plate 3-1 historic and forecast data for based fixed wing aircraft are shown as developed numbers from County population, percent of national market share, and percent of Western Pacific Formatted: Body Text Indent, Left, Indent: Regional market share. The California Aviation System Plan forecasts are also included. The Left: 0", Widow/Orphan control, Allow hanging TAF historical and forecast data are shown on this plate and indicate a significant number of punctuation, Adjust space between Latin and Asian text, Adjust space between Asian text and based aircraft up until 2003, at which time it numbers
Formatted: Body Text Indent, Widow/Orphan control, Adjust space between Latin and Asian text, Adjust space between Asian text and Mammoth Yosemite Airport Layout Plan July 2011 numbers 3-4 Formatted: Body Text Indent, Indent: Left: 0", Widow/Orphan control, Adjust space between Latin and Asian text, Adjust space between Asian text and numbers, Tab stops: 1.25", Left Formatted: Body Text Indent, Widow/Orphan control, Adjust space between Latin and Asian text, Adjust space between Asian text and numbers Formatted: Font: Times New Roman, 10 pt Formatted: Font: Times New Roman, 10 pt, Font color: Green Formatted: Font: Times New Roman, 10 pt
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Mammoth Yosemite Airport Layout Plan May 2012 2-10 CHAPTER 2 - INVENTORY
CHAPTER 3 – AVIATION FORECASTS
Formatted: Body Text Indent, Widow/Orphan dropped to eight and then by 2008 to four. TAF forecasts stay steady control, Allow hanging punctuation, Adjust space between Latin and Asian text, Adjust at four for the 20-year forecast period. space between Asian text and numbers Formatted: Body Text Indent, Widow/Orphan There are currently 8 aircraft based at the airport – 6 single engine control, Adjust space between Latin and Asian text, Adjust space between Asian text and propeller-driven aircraft and 2 small twin-engine propeller-drive aircraft. numbers The number of based aircraft over the past 10 years is reported to Formatted: Body Text Indent, Left, have ranged from 6 to 8. The population of Mono County is not Widow/Orphan control, Allow hanging expected to risegrow significantly and the. The type of work available punctuation, Adjust space between Latin and Asian text, Adjust space between Asian text and in Mono County is largely service and government, which does not numbers lead to the development of plane aircraft ownership. MMH Forecasts Formatted: Body Text Indent, Widow/Orphan (Brandley) have been presented on Plate 3-1 and showshows an control, Adjust space between Latin and Asian increase of 2 based aircraft over the next 20 years. It is difficult to text, Adjust space between Asian text and numbers forecast such small increases. Formatted: Body Text Indent, Indent: Left: 0", Widow/Orphan control, Adjust space 3-3.5.2 Annual Operations – Fixed Wing Aircraft between Latin and Asian text, Adjust space between Asian text and numbers, Tab stops: 1.25", Left On Plate 3-2 historical and forecast data for annual operations of fixed Formatted: Body Text Indent, Widow/Orphan wing aircraft are shown. On this graph the forecasts include those by control, Adjust space between Latin and Asian TAF, California Aviation System Plan, percent of national market text, Adjust space between Asian text and share, percent of Western Pacific Region market share, and the MMH numbers Forecasts –/ Brandley. Forecast. It will be noted that the TAF Formatted: Body Text Indent, Left, Widow/Orphan control, Allow hanging forecasts show 24,000 operations in the early 1990s dropping to punctuation, Adjust space between Latin and 16,000 to 17,000 from 1994 to 2006, and then dropping to 7,405 in Asian text, Adjust space between Asian text and numbers 2009 and continuing at that level through the forecast period to 2030. Formatted: Body Text Indent, Line spacing: The CASP shows a gradual increase from 14,000 in 1995 to 16,000 in single, Widow/Orphan control, Adjust space 2020. between Latin and Asian text, Adjust space between Asian text and numbers The Airport Forecast (MMH / Brandley Forcast) begins in 2010 with the Formatted: Body Text Indent, Left, Widow/Orphan control, Allow hanging same annual operations as the TAF forecasts but increases punctuation, Adjust space between Latin and significantly over the next 20 years to 15,000 in 2030. This increase is Asian text, Adjust space between Asian text and brought about by the introduction of the airline service and additional numbers itinerant aircraft operations from various areas in the Western United Formatted: Body Text Indent, Indent: Left: 1.25", Widow/Orphan control, Adjust space States. Based on past experience and proposed development at the between Latin and Asian text, Adjust space airport, theythese projections are conservative. between Asian text and numbers Formatted: Body Text Indent, Indent: Left: 0", Widow/Orphan control, Adjust space 3-3.5.3 Enplaned Passengers and Airline Operations between Latin and Asian text, Adjust space between Asian text and numbers, Tab stops: Annual enplaned passenger and annual airline operation forecasts for 1.25", Left Mammoth Yosemite Airport were prepared based on projections by Formatted: Body Text Indent, Widow/Orphan control, Adjust space between Latin and Asian Mammoth Mountain for proposed airline agreements.considering the text, Adjust space between Asian text and MMSA forecasts and the historical and forecast data obtained from numbers comparable airports. These forecasts are shown on Plate 3-3. On this Formatted: Body Text Indent, Left, plate the historical enplanements and forecast enplanements for Widow/Orphan control, Adjust space between Latin and Asian text, Adjust space between comparable airports including Yampa Valley, Eagle County Regional, Asian text and numbers Aspen-Pitkin County, and Glacier Park International, Montrose Formatted: Justified, Don't hyphenate, Tab stops: 3.25", Centered
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Regional, and Friedman Memorial Airports are also included. It will be noted that the rate of growth of airline passenger enplanements for each of these airports was essentiallysimilar and matches the same as for Mammoth Yosemite AirportMMH / Brandley forecast, showing a rapid growth in the first five years after start of airline operation and then leveling off to a steady growth thereafter. The similarity of growth patterns validates the forecasts for annual enplanements at MMH. Formatted: Body Text Indent, Left, Indent: Left: 1.25", Line spacing: single, Widow/Orphan control, Adjust space between Latin and Asian text, Adjust space between Asian text and numbers Mammoth Yosemite Airport Layout Plan July 2011 3-5
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patterns tends to validate the forecasts for annual enplanements at Mammoth Yosemite Airport.
The interim airline terminal at MMH is small (5,000 sq. ft.) and it is estimated that it will take five years to construct a new larger terminal. As a result, it is anticipated that the growth for the next five years will Formatted: Body Text Indent, Left, be small and limited to 60,000 annual enplanements. When the new Widow/Orphan control, Allow hanging larger terminal becomes operational, the growth rate of enplaned punctuation, Adjust space between Latin and Asian text, Adjust space between Asian text and passengers and airline operations is expected to increase rapidly and numbers reach the levels that would have occurred if the terminal building Formatted: Body Text Indent, Left, Indent: constraint had not existed. Both the MMSA and the MMH / Brandley Left: 1.25", Widow/Orphan control, Adjust forecasts reflect these constraints. space between Latin and Asian text, Adjust space between Asian text and numbers
Formatted: Body Text Indent, Left, On Plate 3-4 the annual airline operations, both historical and forecast, Widow/Orphan control, Allow hanging are presented for Mammoth Yosemite AirportMMH and for the same punctuation, Adjust space between Latin and Asian text, Adjust space between Asian text and comparable airports. It will again be noted that the growth curve for numbers Mammoth Yosemite AirportMMH parallels the growth curve for these Formatted: Body Text Indent, Widow/Orphan other airports, except for the early constraints caused by the control, Adjust space between Latin and Asian insufficient terminal capacity, thus validating the data for Mammoth text, Adjust space between Asian text and Yosemite AirportMMH. numbers Formatted: Body Text Indent, Indent: Left: 0", Widow/Orphan control, Adjust space On Plate 3-5 the total airport operations, both historical and forecast, between Latin and Asian text, Adjust space are presented for Mammoth Yosemite AirportMMH and for the same between Asian text and numbers, Tab stops: 1.25", Left comparable airports. It will be noted that the MMH growth curve is has Formatted: Body Text Indent, Widow/Orphan a similar to slope as that of the other airports. control, Adjust space between Latin and Asian text, Adjust space between Asian text and The passenger load factor as shown on Table No. 3-2 for the peer numbers airports in the first quarter of 2011 ranged from 64.6 percent to 71.9 Formatted: Body Text Indent, Widow/Orphan control, Allow hanging punctuation, Adjust percent for all peer airports except for Glacier Park, which was 84.5 space between Latin and Asian text, Adjust percent. During the same period the load factor at MMH was 61.5 space between Asian text and numbers percent and in 2009 and 2010 exceeded 60 percent. A 60 percent Formatted: Body Text Indent, Line spacing: load factor has been used for all forecasts at MMH, which is single, Widow/Orphan control, Adjust space between Latin and Asian text, Adjust space considered to be conservative. between Asian text and numbers Formatted: Body Text Indent, Indent: Left: 3-3.5.4 Helicopters – Based Helicopters and Helicopter Operations 0", Widow/Orphan control, Adjust space between Latin and Asian text, Adjust space between Asian text and numbers, Tab stops: There are currently no based helicopters at the airport and none are 1.25", Left forecast for this airport. Formatted: Body Text Indent, Line spacing: single, Widow/Orphan control, Adjust space between Latin and Asian text, Adjust space 3-3.5.5 Fleet Mix between Asian text and numbers
Formatted: Body Text Indent, Left, The fleet mix for the itinerant general aviation operations that exist Widow/Orphan control, Allow hanging today and are forecast to continue over the forecast period ranges punctuation, Adjust space between Latin and Asian text, Adjust space between Asian text and from the small single-engine propeller-driven aircraft to the small twin- numbers engine and larger twin-engine propeller driven aircraft. There are also Formatted: Justified, Don't hyphenate, Tab stops: 3.25", Centered
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significant numbers of jet-powered aircraft operating at the airport ranging from the small jet aircraft to the larger aircraft of the Falcon 50 and G V class. This fleet mix is expected to be maintained over the forecast period, but the number of larger aircraft with relation to the total fleet mix is expected to increase somewhat. Formatted: Body Text Indent, Left, Indent: Left: 1.25", Widow/Orphan control, Adjust The existing and anticipated fleet mix forecast by MMSA for the airline space between Latin and Asian text, Adjust operations are shown in Table No. 3-1. In 2010 Alaska Airlines space between Asian text and numbers werewas flying the Q400 aircraft and United/Skywest Airlines werewas Formatted: Body Text Indent, Left, flying the RJ 700CRJ700 aircraft. into MMH. In Table No. 3-1 the type Widow/Orphan control, Allow hanging punctuation, Adjust space between Latin and aircraft and city to be served as forecast by MMSA are shown for each Asian text, Adjust space between Asian text and year through the forecast period. It is anticipated that airlines willmay numbers add the Boeing 737 and the A 319 B737, A319, or similar class of aircraft to their fleet in later years. A graphical presentation showing the anticipated annual operations for each airline aircraft is shown in Plate 3-6. Formatted: Body Text Indent, Left, Widow/Orphan control, Adjust space between Mammoth Yosemite AirportMMH has kept records of the number of Latin and Asian text, Adjust space between turbine aircraft turbine visits between 1999 and 2010. These data are Asian text and numbers presented in Plate 3-2.6. It will be noted that there was a steady Formatted: Body Text Indent, Left, increase from 300 to over 1,400 visits between 1999 and 2006, then a Widow/Orphan control, Allow hanging punctuation, Adjust space between Latin and decrease through 2008 to 930, and then a continuing increase beyond Asian text, Adjust space between Asian text and that point. The growth over the forecast period is expected to be numbers similar to the average growth in the past 10 years with some peaks and dips depending on the economy. Formatted: Body Text Indent, Indent: Left: 1.31", Widow/Orphan control, Adjust space between Latin and Asian text, Adjust space between Asian text and numbers Mammoth Yosemite Airport Layout Plan July 2011 3-6
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average growth in the past 10 years with some peaks and dips depending on the economy.
MMH currently serves aircraft of both the general aviation fleet and the airline fleet classified by the F.A.A. as ARC C III and is expected to serve an increasing number of ARC C III aircraft in future years.
3-3.5.6 Comparison of Airport Planning Forecasts to TAF Forecasts Formatted: Body Text Indent, Left, Indent: Left: 0", Widow/Orphan control, Adjust space between Latin and Asian text, Adjust space The Federal Aviation Administration develops a Terminal Area between Asian text and numbers, Tab stops: Forecast (TAF) for each federally funded airport. These forecasts 1.31", Left provide historical data and F.A.A. 20-year forecast data for passenger enplanements, aircraft operations, and based aircraft. In all Airport Layout Plan Update Narrative Reports it is required that a comparison between Airport forecasts and TAF forecasts be made so that it can be used as a guide to the reasonableness of the Airport forecasts. If the Airport forecasts do not exceed the TAF forecasts by more than 10 percent in five years and 15 percent in 10 years, they can be approved by the F.A.A. Airport District Office. If larger deviations in forecasts are proposed, then an explanation for the larger deviation must be submitted and be approved by F.A.A. Regional and/or Headquarters office. A summarization and documentation of Airport planning forecasts has been prepared and is included in Table No. 3- 4. Formatted: Font color: Red Forecast levels for passenger enplanements, fixed wing operations, Formatted: Body Text Indent, Left, Indent: and based aircraft are shown in TableTables No. 3-7.5 and 3-6. A Left: 1.31", Widow/Orphan control, Adjust space between Latin and Asian text, Adjust comparison of Airport Forecasts and TAF Forecasts has been space between Asian text and numbers prepared for based aircraft and is included in Table No. 3-4.5. A Formatted: Font: (Default) Arial, 12 pt similar comparison has been made between Airport Forecasts and Formatted: Font: (Default) Arial, 12 pt TAF Forecasts for annual operations and is included in Table No. 3-5. Formatted: Font: (Default) Arial, 12 pt 6. Formatted: Font: (Default) Arial, 12 pt The based fixed wing aircraft forecast shows a 100 percent difference Formatted: Body Text Indent, Left, Indent: Left: 1.31", Widow/Orphan control, Allow between Airport Forecast and TAF at the base years and 150 percent hanging punctuation, Adjust space between increase at Base Year + 20 Years. The 100 percent difference Latin and Asian text, Adjust space between represents current conditions, and with the small number of aircraft a Asian text and numbers small change creates a large percentage difference between the two forecast methods.
The comparison for annual operation forecasts shows very large differences between the Airport Forecast and the TAF Forecast. This is largely brought about by the recent introduction of airline operations and forecast largethe forecasted growth in commercial airline operations and by the existing and forecast increase in itinerant general aviation operations. The forecast enplaned passenger Formatted: Justified, Don't hyphenate, Tab operations and total operations include the rapid growth in airline stops: 3.25", Centered
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operations and itinerant operations, which were not anticipated in the TAF Forecasts.
MMH enplanements and itinerant operations have already exceeded the TAF Forecast as shown in Table No. 3-3. In 2011, MMH achieved 26,196 enplanements, whereas the TAF showed only 23,770 enplanements. Also in 2011, MMH had 5,600 itinerant operations, whereas the TAF showed only 3,761 itinerant operations. This further validates the difference between the MMH / Brandley forecast and the TAF.
3-3.5.7 Peaking Characteristics Formatted: Font: Arial Formatted: Justified, Widow/Orphan control, Adjust space between Latin and Asian text, When planning future airport facilities and determining adequacy of Adjust space between Asian text and numbers, Tab stops: 1.31", Left existing facilities, it is important to identify and project peak period Formatted: Body Text Indent 2, Left, Indent: activity levels. Peaking characteristics are developed for aircraft Left: 1.31", Space Before: 9 pt, Widow/Orphan operations using the following methodologies: control, Allow hanging punctuation, Adjust space between Latin and Asian text, Adjust space between Asian text and numbers Annual operations are determined from previously described Formatted: Indent: Left: 1.5", Space Before: forecasts, and the peak month activity is typically considered to 9 pt, Bulleted + Level: 1 + Aligned at: 0.75" + be approximately 10 percent of the year’s total activity. Tab after: 1" + Indent at: 1", Widow/Orphan control, Allow hanging punctuation, Adjust space between Latin and Asian text, Adjust space between Asian text and numbers, Tab The average peak day is determined by dividing the peak stops: 1.75", List tab + Not at 1" month activity by 30. Formatted: Font: Arial
Formatted: Indent: Left: 1.5", Space Before: The peak hour percentages are applied to the projected 6 pt, Bulleted + Level: 1 + Aligned at: 0.75" + Tab after: 1" + Indent at: 1", Widow/Orphan average peak day operations. The peak hour operations control, Allow hanging punctuation, Adjust typically range from 12 to 20 percent of the peak day space between Latin and Asian text, Adjust space between Asian text and numbers, Tab operations. stops: 1.75", List tab + Not at 1"
The peak hour operations anticipated by this methodology range from 4 in 2010 to 7.5 in Formatted: Font: Arial 2030. Forecast peak hour and peak operations Formatted: Indent: Left: 1.5", Space Before: 6 pt, Bulleted + Level: 1 + Aligned at: 0.75" + Tab after: 1" + Indent at: 1", Widow/Orphan control, Allow hanging punctuation, Adjust space between Latin and Asian text, Adjust Mammoth Yosemite Airport Layout Plan July 2011 space between Asian text and numbers, Tab 3-7 stops: 1.75", List tab + Not at 1" Formatted: Font: Arial Formatted: Widow/Orphan control, Adjust space between Latin and Asian text, Adjust space between Asian text and numbers Formatted: Font: Times New Roman, 10 pt Formatted: Font: Times New Roman, 10 pt
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indicate that the existing runway will adequately serve the forecast Formatted: Body Text Indent 2, Left, Indent: Left: 0", Widow/Orphan control, Allow hanging aircraft during the forecast period without any significant delays. punctuation, Adjust space between Latin and Asian text, Adjust space between Asian text and 3-3.5.8 Design Critical Aircraft numbers Formatted: Font: Arial Formatted: Indent: Left: 0.5", Widow/Orphan F.A.A. defines the designcritical aircraft for planning purposes to be control, Adjust space between Latin and Asian the largest aircraft group that has more than 500 operations per year. text, Adjust space between Asian text and numbers The aircraft operated by the airlines will meet this requirement and be Formatted: Widow/Orphan control, Adjust the design aircraft. The design aircraft as of the base year 2010 will space between Latin and Asian text, Adjust be the RJ 700CRJ700 or Q400. The design aircraft after 2018 will be space between Asian text and numbers, Tab the B 737 or A 319. stops: 1.31", Left Formatted: Font: Arial Formatted: Body Text Indent, Left, Indent: Left: 1.31", Space Before: 9 pt, Widow/Orphan control, Allow hanging punctuation, Adjust space between Latin and Asian text, Adjust space between Asian text and numbers
Formatted: Strikethrough Formatted: Font: Arial
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TABLE NO. 3-1 MMH Growth Plan 2008 to 2027
Early Winter/Winter Scheduled Air Service 2008-09 2009-10 2010-11 2011-12 2012-13 Aircraft Total Seats Total Seats Total Seats Total Seats Total Seats City Type Seats Airline Operations Per Season Operations Per Season Operations Per Season Operations Per Season Operations Per Season LAX Q-400 76 QX 115 8740 115 8740 143 10868 143 10868 143 10868 LAX Q-400 76 QX 115 8740 115 8740 115 8740 115 8740 SNA RJ 66 TBD 0 0 SAN Q-400 76 QX 0 0 115 8740 115 8740 SFO RJ 66 UA 115 7590 115 7590 115 7590 SFO RJ 66 UA 115 7590 115 7590 SJC Q-400 76 QX 115 8740 115 8740 115 8740 115 8740 SEA 737 124 AS 0 0 PDX Q-400 76 QX 0 16 1216 RNO Q-400 76 QX 115 8740 LAS RJ 70 US 0 PHX RJ 70 US 0 0 115 8050 PHX RJ 70 US 0 Totals 115 8740 460 34960 488 35938 718 52268 849 61534 300% 3% 45% 18%
Spring/Summer/Fall Scheduled Air Service 2008-09 2009-10 2010-11 2011-12 2012-13 Aircraft Total Seats Total Seats Total Seats Total Seats Total Seats City Type Seats Airline Operations Per Season Operations Per Season Operations Per Season Operations Per Season Operations Per Season LAX Q-400 76 QX 173 13148 173 13148 173 13148 222 16872 LAX Q-400 76 QX 82 6232 82 6232 82 6232 SNA RJ 66 TBD SAN RJ 66 TBD SFO RJ 66 UA 82 5412 82 5412 SFO RJ 66 UA SJC Q-400 76 QX SEA 737 124 AS PDX Q-400 76 QX RNO Q-400 76 QX LAS RJ 70 US PHX RJ 70 US 0 0 PHX RJ 70 US Totals 0 0 173 13148 255 19380 337 24792 386 28516 47% 28% 15%
Total Year Round Scheduled Air Service 2008-09 2009-10 2010-11 2011-12 2012-13 Aircraft Total Seats Total Seats Total Seats Total Seats Total Seats City Type Seats Airline Operations Per Season Operations Per Season Operations Per Season Operations Per Season Operations Per Season LAX Q-400 76 QX 115 8740 288 21888 316 24016 316 24016 365 27740 LAX Q-400 76 QX 115 8740 197 14972 197 14972 197 14972 SNA RJ 66 TBD 0 0 SAN Q-400 76 QX 115 8740 115 8740 115 8740 SFO RJ 66 UA 115 7590 197 13002 197 13002 SFO RJ 66 UA 115 7590 115 7590 SJC Q-400 76 QX 115 8740 115 8740 115 8740 115 8740 SEA 737 124 AS 0 0 PDX Q-400 76 QX 0 0 16 1216 RNO Q-400 76 QX 115 8740 0 LAS RJ 70 US 0 0 PHX RJ 70 US 0 0 115 8050 PHX RJ 70 US 0 0 Totals 115 8740 633 48108 858 64058 1055 77060 1235 90050 450% 33% 20% 17% Season Days Dates Season Days Winter Season 115 Dec 17 to April 10 Winter Season 115 Spring/Summer Season 173 April 10 to Sept 30 Spring/Summer Season 173 Fall Season 49 Oct 1 to Nov 18 Fall Season 49 Early Winter Season 28 Nov 19 to Dec 16 Early Winter Season 28 Summer only 82 June 15 to Sept 4 Totals 365 Formatted: Justified, Don't hyphenate, Tab Seasonal day counts will vary some from year to year stops: 3.25", Centered
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Ops Seasons and Days Ops Seasons and Days Ops Seasons and Days 16 Winter - One Weekend Day only 115 Winter Daily 173 Spring Summer Daily 28 Early Winter 131 Winter Daily + One Weekend Day 197 Winter Daily +Summer only 32 Winter - Two Weekend Days 143 Early Winter + Winter Daily 222 Spring Summer and Fall Daily 82 Summer Daily 147 Winter Daily + Two Weekend Days 230 Winter 2X Daily
3-9
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TABLE NO. 3-1
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TABLE NO. 3-2 - PEER MARKET COMPARISONS
Yampa Sun Glacier Aspen Eagle Montrose Mammoth Valley Valley Park 2010 217,434 204,675 111,770 95,622 53,871 174,163 20,564 Enplanements
2010 Population 15,932 54,216 23,592 41,830 22,740 93,849 13,185
Enplanements per 13.6 3.8 4.7 2.3 2.4 1.9 1.6 Population unit
2010 Skier Days 1,400,000 1,620,000 1,000,000 430,000 362,317 360,000 1,460,000
Enplanements per 0.16 0.13 0.11 0.22 0.15 0.48 0.01 Skier Day
1Q 2011 Load 64.6% 68.1% 71.5% 71.9% 66.1% 84.5% 61.5% Factor
Percent of Traffic 47.1% 73.7% 77.2% 46.2% 35.1% 22.7% 57.8% in 1st Quarter
1Q 2011 Average $248$259$177$208$178 $215 $115 Fare Source: Mammoth Lakes Economic Forecast & Revitalization Strategies; Diio Mi; US Census ALP Narrative Report - Peer Review - Mead & Hunt (February 2012)
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Table No. 3-4 MMH / Brandley Forecasts
A. Forecast Levels Base Year: 2010
Annual Operations Base Yr. Level Base Yr. + 1 Yr. Base Yr. + 5 Yrs.Base Yr. + 10 Yrs.Base Yr. + 15 Yrs. Base Yr. to +20 Passenger Enplanements Air Carrier 19,798 26,196 56,000 85,000 118,000 140,000 Commuter 000000 TOTAL 19,798 26,196 56,000 85,000 118,000 140,000 Operations - Fixed Wing Itinerant Air carrier 1,300 1,600 2,500 3,700 4,900 5,400 Commuter/air taxi 000000 Total Commercial Operations 1,300 1,600 2,500 3,700 4,900 5,400 General aviation 5,600 5,700 6,000 6,430 6,900 7,400 Military 000000 Local General aviation 600 610 640 690 740 790 Military 000000 TOTAL OPERATIONS 7,500 7,910 9,140 10,820 12,540 13,590 Instrument Operations 2.9 3.0 3.5 6.4 6.9 7.5 Peak Hour Operations 000000 Cargo/mail (enplaned + deplaned tons) Based Aircraft - Fixed Wing Single Engine (Nonjet)666778 Multi Engine (Nonjet)222222 Jet Engine 000000 Other 000000 TOTAL 8 8 8 9 9 10 Helicopter* Based helicopters 000000 Helicopter operations000000 TAF Total Operations TAF Based Aircraft
*Note: Helicopter based and operations are not included in data for total operations.
B. Operational Factors
Average Annual Base Yr. Level Base Yr. + 1 Yr. Base Yr. + 5 Yrs.Base Yr. + 10 Yrs.Base Yr. + 15 Yrs. Base Yr. to +20 Base Yr. to +5 Average aircraft size (seats) Air carrier 76 76 70 72 83 81 73 Commuter 0000000 Air taxi 0000000 Average enplaning load factor 40 45 59 55 54 48 43 Air carrier 40 45 59 55 54 48 43 Commuter 0000000 Air taxi 0000000 GA operations per based aircraft NA NA NA NA NA NA NA
Sources: F.A.A. Terminal Area Forecasts (TAF) Mammoth Yosemite Airport Formatted: Justified, Don't hyphenate, Tab Prepared by: Reinard W. Brandley, Consulting Airport Engineer stops: 3.25", Centered
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Table No. 3-5 Mammoth Yosemite Airport (MMH) Comparison of Airport Planning and TAF Forecasts of Based Fixed Wing Aircraft
Airport AF/TAF (% Year Forecast TAF Difference) Total Based Aircraft - Fixed Wing Base yr. - 2010 2010 8 4 100.0 Base yr. + 5 yrs. 2015 8 4 100.0 Base yr. + 10 yrs. 2020 9 4 125.0 Base yr. + 15 yrs. 2025 9 4 125.0 Base yr. + 20 yrs. 2030 10 4 150.0
Note: TAF data is on a U.S. government fiscal year basis (October through September).
Reason for discrepancy: 1. TAF assumed no increase in forecast annual operations since 1995. 2. Normal growth of airport operations expected to relate to population and employment growth.
Sources: F.A.A. Terminal Area Forecasts (TAF) Mammoth Yosemite Airport (MMH) Prepared by: Reinard W. Brandley, Consulting Airport Engineer
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Table No. 3-6 Mammoth Yosemite Airport (MMH) Comparison of Airport Planning and TAF Forecasts of Annual Operations - Fixed Wing Aircraft
Airport AF/TAF (% Year Forecast TAF Difference) Passenger Enplanements Base yr. - 2010 2010 19,798 16,528 120 Base yr. + 5 yrs. 2015 56,000 16,528 339 Base yr. + 10 yrs. 2020 85,000 16,528 514 Base yr. + 15 yrs. 2025 118,000 16,528 714
Commercial Operations Base yr. - 2010 2010 1,300 120 1,083 Base yr. + 5 yrs. 2015 2,500 120 2,083 Base yr. + 10 yrs. 2020 3,700 120 3,083 Base yr. + 15 yrs. 2025 4,900 120 4,083
Total Operations Base yr. - 2010 2010 7,500 7,405 101 Base yr. + 5 yrs. 2015 9,140 7,405 123 Base yr. + 10 yrs. 2020 10,820 7,405 146 Base yr. + 15 yrs. 2025 12,540 7,405 169 Base yr. + 20 yrs. 2030 13,590 7,405 184
Note: TAF data is on a U.S. government fiscal year basis (October through September).
Reason for discrepancy: 1. TAF assumed no increase in forecast annual operations since 1995. 2. Normal growth of airport operations expected to relate to introduction of airline services, increased itinerant operations to provide access to recreational facilities, and population and employment growth.
Sources: F.A.A. Terminal Area Forecasts (TAF) Mammoth Yosemite Airport (MMH)
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CHAPTER 4. DEMAND CAPACITY ANALYSIS AND FACILITY REQUIREMENTS
Formatted: Font: Arial MMH Growth Plan 2008 to 2027 Formatted: Justified, Line spacing: single, Widow/Orphan control, Adjust space between Early Winter/Winter Scheduled Air Service Latin and Asian text, Adjust space between 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16 2016-17 2017-18 Asian text and numbers Aircraft Total Seats Total Seats Total Seats Total Seats Total Seats City Type Seats Airline Operations Per Season Operations Per Season Operations Per Season Operations Per Season Operations Per Season Formatted: Font: Times New Roman, Not Bold LAX Q-400 76 QX 143 10868 143 10868 143 10868 143 10868 143 10868 LAX Q-400 76 QX 115 8740 115 8740 115 8740 115 8740 115 8740 SNA RJ 66 TBD 115 7590 115 7590 115 7590 115 7590 115 7590 SAN Q-400 76 TBD 115 8740 115 8740 115 8740 115 8740 115 8740 SFO RJ 66 UA 115 7590 115 7590 115 7590 115 7590 115 7590 SFO A319 124 UA 0 0 32 3968 48 5952 48 5952 115 14260 DEN A319 124 UA 0 0 0 0 16 1984 32 3968 SJC Q-400 76 QX 143 10868 143 10868 143 10868 143 10868 143 10868 SEA 737 124 AS 16 1984 16 1984 32 3968 32 3968 32 3968 PDX Q-400 76 QX 32 2432 115 8740 115 8740 131 9956 131 9956 LAS RJ 70 US 0 0 0 0 0 115 8050 115 8050 PHX RJ 70 US 115 8050 115 8050 115 8050 115 8050 115 8050 PHX RJ 70 US 16 1120 32 2240 115 8050 131 9170 147 10290 Totals 61534 925 67982 1056 79378 1171 89156 1334 101526 1433 112938 10% 17% 12% 14% 11%
Spring/Summer/Fall Scheduled Air Service 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16 2016-17 2017-18 Aircraft Total Seats Total Seats Total Seats Total Seats Total Seats City Type Seats Airline Operations Per Season Operations Per Season Operations Per Season Operations Per Season Operations Per Season LAX Q-400 76 QX 222 16872 222 16872 222 16872 222 16872 222 16872 LAX Q-400 76 QX 82 6232 82 6232 82 6232 82 6232 82 6232 SNA RJ 66 TBD 0 0 0 0 0 0 82 5412 SAN RJ 66 TBD 0 0 82 5412 82 5412 SFO RJ 66 UA 82 5412 82 5412 82 5412 82 5412 82 5412 SFO RJ 66 UA 82 5412 82 5412 82 5412 82 5412 DEN A319 70 UA SJC Q-400 76 QX 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 SEA 737 124 AS PDX Q-400 76 QX LAS RJ 70 US 0 0 0 82 5740 82 5740 82 5740 PHX RJ 70 US 82 5740 82 5740 82 5740 82 5740 82 5740 PHX RJ 70 US Totals 28516 468 34256 550 39668 632 45408 714 50820 796 56232 20% 16% 14% 12% 11%
Total Year Round Scheduled Air Service 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16 2016-17 2017-18 Aircraft Total Seats Total Seats Total Seats Total Seats Total Seats City Type Seats Airline Operations Per Season Operations Per Season Operations Per Season Operations Per Season Operations Per Season LAX Q-400 76 QX 365 27740 365 27740 365 27740 365 27740 365 27740 LAX Q-400 76 QX 197 14972 197 14972 197 14972 197 14972 197 14972 SNA RJ 66 TBD 115 7590 115 7590 115 7590 115 7590 197 13002 SAN RJ 66 TBD 115 8740 115 8740 115 8740 197 14152 197 14152 SFO RJ 66 UA 197 13002 197 13002 197 13002 197 13002 197 13002 SFO MIX 66 UA 0 0 114 9380 130 11364 130 11364 197 19672 DEN A319 70 UA 0 0 0 0 0 0 16 1984 32 3968 SJC Q-400 76 QX 143 10868 143 10868 143 10868 143 10868 143 10868 SEA 737 124 AS 16 1984 16 1984 32 3968 32 3968 32 3968 PDX Q-400 76 QX 16 2432 32 8740 48 8740 131 9956 131 9956 LAS RJ 70 US 0 0 0 0 82 5740 197 13790 197 13790 PHX RJ 70 US 197 13790 197 13790 197 13790 197 13790 197 13790 PHX RJ 70 US 16 1120 32 2240 115 8050 131 9170 147 10290 Totals 90050 1377 102238 1523 119046 1736 134564 2048 152346 2229 169170 14% 16% 13% 13% 11% Season Days Dates Season Days Winter Season 115 Dec 17 to April 10 Winter Season 115 Spring/Summer Season 173 April 10 to Sept 30 Spring/Summer Season 173 Fall Season 49 Oct 1 to Nov 18 Fall Season 49 Formatted: Justified, Don't hyphenate, Tab Early Winter Season 28 Nov 19 to Dec 16 Early Winter Season 28 stops: 3.25", Centered
Mammoth Yosemite Airport Layout Plan May 2012 3-17 CHAPTER 3 – AVIATION FORECASTS
Summer only 82 June 15 to Sept 4 Totals 365 Seasonal day counts will vary some from year to year Ops Seasons and Days Ops Seasons and Days Ops Seasons and Days 16 Winter - One Weekend Day only 115 Winter Daily 173 Spring Summer Daily 28 Early Winter 131 Winter Daily + One Weekend Day 197 Winter Daily +Summer only 32 Winter - Two Weekend Days 143 Early Winter + Winter Daily 222 Spring Summer and Fall Daily 82 Summer Daily 147 Winter Daily + Two Weekend Days 230 Winter 2X Daily
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Mammoth Yosemite Airport Layout Plan May 2012 3-18 CHAPTER 3 – AVIATION FORECASTS
TABLE NO. 3-1 MMH Growth Plan 2008 to 2027
Early Winter/Winter Scheduled Air Service 2018-19 2019-20 2020-21 2021-22 2022-23 Aircraft Total Seats Total Seats Total Seats Total Seats Total Seats City Type Seats Airline Operations Per Season Operations Per Season Operations Per Season Operations Per Season Operations Per Season LAX Q-400 76 QX 143 10868 143 10868 143 10868 143 10868 143 10868 LAX Q-400 76 QX 115 8740 115 8740 115 8740 115 8740 115 8740 SNA RJ 66 TBD 115 7590 115 7590 115 7590 115 7590 115 7590 SAN Q-400 76 TBD 115 8740 115 8740 115 8740 115 8740 115 8740 SFO A319 124 UA 115 14260 115 14260 115 14260 115 14260 115 14260 SFO A319 124 UA 115 14260 115 14260 115 14260 115 14260 115 14260 DEN A319 124 UA 115 14260 115 14260 115 14260 115 14260 115 14260 SJC Q-400 76 QX 143 10868 143 10868 143 10868 143 10868 143 10868 SEA 737 124 AS 32 3968 32 3968 48 5952 64 7936 115 14260 PDX Q-400 76 QX 131 9956 115 8740 115 8740 131 9956 131 9956 LAS RJ 70 US 115 8050 115 8050 115 8050 115 8050 115 8050 PHX A319 124 US 115 14260 115 14260 115 14260 115 14260 115 14260 PHX RJ 70 US 115 8050 131 9170 115 8050 131 9170 147 10290 DFW 737 124 AA 16 1984 32 3968 48 5952 115 14260 IAH A319 124 UA 16 1984 32 3968 48 5952 BUR/SLO RJ 66 TBD 48 3168 115 7590 115 7590 115 7590 115 7590 Totals 112938 1484 137038 1615 143348 1647 148180 1727 156468 1877 174204 21% 5% 3% 6% 11%
Spring/Summer/Fall Scheduled Air Service 2018-19 2019-20 2020-21 2020-21 2021-22 Aircraft Total Seats Total Seats Total Seats Total Seats Total Seats City Type Seats Airline Operations Per Season Operations Per Season Operations Per Season Operations Per Season Operations Per Season LAX Q-400 76 QX 222 16872 222 16872 222 16872 222 16872 222 16872 LAX Q-400 76 QX 82 6232 82 6232 82 6232 82 6232 82 6232 SNA RJ 66 TBD 82 5412 82 5412 82 5412 82 5412 82 5412 SAN RJ 66 TBD 82 5412 82 5412 82 5412 82 5412 82 5412 SFO RJ 66 UA 82 5412 82 5412 82 5412 82 5412 82 5412 SFO RJ 66 UA 82 5412 82 5412 82 5412 82 5412 82 5412 DEN A319 70 UA SJC Q-400 76 QX 82 6232 82 6232 82 6232 82 6232 82 6232 SEA 737 124 AS PDX Q-400 76 QX LAS RJ 70 US 82 5740 82 5740 82 5740 82 5740 82 5740 PHX RJ 70 US 82 5740 82 5740 82 5740 82 5740 82 5740 PHX RJ 70 US 82 5740 82 5740 DFW 737 124 AA IAH A319 124 UA BUR/SLO RJ 66 TBD 0 0 0 0 82 5412 82 5412 82 5412 Totals 56232 878 62464 878 62464 960 67876 1042 73616 1042 73616 11% 0% 9% 8% 0%
Total Year Round Scheduled Air Service 2018-19 2019-20 2020-21 2020-21 2021-22 Aircraft Total Seats Total Seats Total Seats Total Seats Total Seats City Type Seats Airline Operations Per Season Operations Per Season Operations Per Season Operations Per Season Operations Per Season LAX Q-400 76 QX 365 27740 365 27740 365 27740 365 27740 365 27740 LAX Q-400 76 QX 197 14972 197 14972 197 14972 197 14972 197 14972 SNA RJ 66 TBD 197 13002 197 13002 197 13002 197 13002 197 13002 SAN RJ 66 TBD 197 14152 197 14152 197 14152 197 14152 197 14152 SFO RJ 66 UA 197 19672 197 19672 197 19672 197 19672 197 19672 SFO MIX 66 UA 197 19672 197 19672 197 19672 197 19672 197 19672 DEN A319 124 UA 115 14260 115 14260 115 14260 115 14260 115 14260 SJC Q-400 76 QX 225 17100 225 17100 225 17100 225 17100 225 17100 SEA 737 124 AS 32 3968 32 3968 48 5952 64 7936 115 14260 PDX Q-400 76 QX 131 9956 115 8740 115 8740 131 9956 131 9956 LAS RJ 70 US 197 13790 197 13790 197 13790 197 13790 197 13790 PHX RJ 70 US 197 20000 197 20000 197 20000 197 20000 197 20000 PHX RJ 70 US 115 8050 131 9170 115 8050 213 14910 229 16030 DFW 737 124 AA 0 0 16 1984 32 3968 48 5952 115 14260 Formatted: Justified, Don't hyphenate, Tab IAH A319 124 UA 0 0 0 0 16 1984 32 3968 48 5952 stops: 3.25", Centered
Mammoth Yosemite Airport Layout Plan May 2012 3-19 CHAPTER 3 – AVIATION FORECASTS
BUR/SLO RJ 66 TBD 48 3168 115 7590 197 13002 197 13002 197 13002 Totals 169170 2410 199502 2493 205812 2607 216056 2769 230084 2919 247820 18% 3% 5% 6% 8%
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Mammoth Yosemite Airport Layout Plan May 2012 3-20 CHAPTER 3 – AVIATION FORECASTS
TABLE NO. 3-1 MMH Growth Plan 2008 to 2027
Early Winter/Winter Scheduled Air Service 2023-24 2024-25 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 Aircraft Total Seats Total Seats Total Seats Total Seats Total Seats City Type Seats Airline Operations Per Season Operations Per Season Operations Per Season Operations Per Season Operations Per Season LAX Q-400 76 QX 143 10868 143 10868 143 10868 143 10868 143 10868 LAX Q-400 76 QX 115 8740 115 8740 115 8740 115 8740 115 8740 SNA RJ 66 TBD 115 7590 115 7590 115 7590 115 7590 115 7590 SAN Q-400 76 TBD 115 8740 115 8740 115 8740 115 8740 115 8740 SFO A319 124 UA 115 14260 115 14260 115 14260 115 14260 115 14260 SFO A319 124 UA 115 14260 115 14260 115 14260 115 14260 115 14260 DEN A319 124 UA 115 14260 115 14260 115 14260 115 14260 115 14260 SJC Q-400 76 QX 143 10868 143 10868 143 10868 143 10868 143 10868 SEA 737 124 AS 115 14260 115 14260 115 14260 115 14260 115 14260 PDX Q-400 76 QX 131 9956 131 9956 131 9956 131 9956 131 9956 LAS RJ 70 US 115 8050 115 8050 115 8050 115 8050 115 8050 PHX A319 124 US 115 14260 115 14260 115 14260 115 14260 115 14260 PHX RJ 70 US 147 10290 147 10290 147 10290 147 10290 147 10290 DFW 737 124 AA 115 14260 115 14260 115 14260 115 14260 115 14260 IAH A319 124 UA 48 5952 48 5952 48 5952 48 5952 48 5952 BUR/SLO RJ 66 TBD 115 7590 115 7590 115 7590 115 7590 115 7590 Totals 174204 1877 174204 1877 174204 1877 174204 1877 174204 1877 174204 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Spring/Summer/Fall Scheduled Air Service 2023-24 2024-25 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 Aircraft Total Seats Total Seats Total Seats Total Seats Total Seats City Type Seats Airline Operations Per Season Operations Per Season Operations Per Season Operations Per Season Operations Per Season LAX Q-400 76 QX 222 16872 222 16872 222 16872 222 16872 222 16872 LAX Q-400 76 QX 82 6232 82 6232 82 6232 82 6232 82 6232 SNA RJ 66 TBD 82 5412 82 5412 82 5412 82 5412 82 5412 SAN RJ 66 TBD 82 5412 82 5412 82 5412 82 5412 82 5412 SFO RJ 66 UA 82 5412 82 5412 82 5412 82 5412 82 5412 SFO RJ 66 UA 82 5412 82 5412 82 5412 82 5412 82 5412 DEN A319 70 UA 0 SJC Q-400 76 QX 82 6232 82 6232 82 6232 82 6232 82 6232 SEA 737 124 AS 0 PDX Q-400 76 QX 0 LAS RJ 70 US 82 5740 82 5740 82 5740 82 5740 82 5740 PHX RJ 70 US 82 5740 82 5740 82 5740 82 5740 82 5740 PHX RJ 70 US 82 5740 82 5740 82 5740 82 5740 82 5740 DFW 737 124 AA 0 IAH A319 124 UA 0 BUR/SLO RJ 66 TBD 82 5412 82 5412 82 5412 82 5412 82 5412 Totals 73616 1042 73616 1042 73616 1042 73616 1042 73616 1042 73616 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Total Year Round Scheduled Air Service 2023-24 2024-25 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 Aircraft Total Seats Total Seats Total Seats Total Seats Total Seats City Type Seats Airline Operations Per Season Operations Per Season Operations Per Season Operations Per Season Operations Per Season LAX Q-400 76 QX 365 27740 365 27740 365 27740 365 27740 365 27740 LAX Q-400 76 QX 197 14972 197 14972 197 14972 197 14972 197 14972 SNA RJ 66 TBD 197 13002 197 13002 197 13002 197 13002 197 13002 SAN RJ 66 TBD 197 14152 197 14152 197 14152 197 14152 197 14152 SFO RJ 66 UA 197 19672 197 19672 197 19672 197 19672 197 19672 SFO MIX 66 UA 197 19672 197 19672 197 19672 197 19672 197 19672 DEN A319 124 UA 115 14260 115 14260 115 14260 115 14260 115 14260 SJC Q-400 76 QX 225 17100 225 17100 225 17100 225 17100 225 17100 SEA 737 124 AS 115 14260 115 14260 115 14260 115 14260 115 14260 PDX Q-400 76 QX 131 9956 131 9956 131 9956 131 9956 131 9956 LAS RJ 70 US 197 13790 197 13790 197 13790 197 13790 197 13790 PHX RJ 70 US 197 20000 197 20000 197 20000 197 20000 197 20000 PHX RJ 70 US 229 16030 229 16030 229 16030 229 16030 229 16030 DFW 737 124 AA 115 14260 115 14260 115 14260 115 14260 115 14260 Formatted: Justified, Don't hyphenate, Tab IAH A319 124 UA 48 5952 48 5952 48 5952 48 5952 48 5952 stops: 3.25", Centered
Mammoth Yosemite Airport Layout Plan May 2012 3-21 CHAPTER 3 – AVIATION FORECASTS
BUR/SLO RJ 66 TBD 197 13002 197 13002 197 13002 197 13002 197 13002 Totals 247820 2919 247820 2919 247820 2919 247820 2919 247820 2919 247820 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
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Mammoth Yosemite Airport Layout Plan May 2012 3-22 CHAPTER 3 – AVIATION FORECASTS
MMH and Comparable Airports
Historical and Forecast Growth
Yampa Valley Eagle County Regional Aspen-Pitkin CO Glacier Park Internationa Mammoth Yosemite Airport
Enplaned Airline Total Enplaned Airline Total Enplaned Airline Total Enplaned Airline Total Enplaned Itinerent Passengers Operations Operations Passengers Operations Operations Passengers Operations Operations Passengers Operations Operations Passengers Airline Operations Operantions Local Operantions Total Operations Year TAF TAF TAF TAF TAF TAF TAF TAF TAF TAF TAF TAF TAF Brandley TAF Brandley TAF Brandley TAF Brandley TAF Brandley 1976 11,500 5,157 109,525 31,657 16,141 1977 8,109 4,604 93,369 38,082 9,836 1978 12,175 4,448 128,824 43,542 16,626 1979 15,070 2,947 137,632 51,372 16,230 1980 12,012 14 132,128 39,141 2,373 1981 9,801 0 112,149 36,690 5,161 1982 3,984 13,453 120,539 41,039 5,681 1983 1,296 0 127,674 53,158 3,950 1984 22 0 153,971 52,751 402 1985 132 0 173,189 53,743 2,183 1986 573 0 190,709 57,052 4,403 1987 24,495 0 257,311 47,044 3,053 1988 35,544 63 227,475 57,317 3,211 1989 45,419 300 214,841 67,473 6,986 1990 44,862 1,800 7,630 8,398 4,814 20,664 214,067 11,052 41,259 69,776 12,270 65,190 5,247 2,900 17,030 4,000 23,930 1991 59,355 3,932 8,256 29,749 1,484 21,234 204,137 12,935 47,662 79,069 12,465 64,715 5,897 3,000 17,030 4,000 24,030 1992 55,953 3,668 6,442 34,558 1,458 21,208 234,511 14,228 47,889 85,914 10,500 40,700 5,777 3,000 17,030 4,000 24,030 1993 63,866 3,668 6,442 53,200 2,048 21,798 250,981 14,102 47,315 88,937 10,500 40,700 9,328 3,000 17,030 4,000 24,030 1994 62,778 3,918 6,692 62,347 1,755 6,425 251,533 13,956 45,438 102,995 11,400 40,500 8,169 1,500 9,030 3,000 13,530 1995 81,549 8,982 11,806 77,167 6,699 27,399 204,907 8,894 43,934 114,845 10,670 62,050 7,518 1,500 9,030 3,000 13,530 1996 95,643 10,518 13,960 109,118 3,097 25,458 206,672 10,166 42,614 121,176 11,450 58,730 1,762 1,500 9,100 3,000 13,600 1997 105,906 7,138 10,602 164,415 4,364 29,511 217,343 14,396 44,612 133,275 8,660 55,460 0 1,200 9,050 3,000 13,250 1998 104,428 5,146 8,635 173,041 5,944 30,030 251,448 16,945 47,067 133,502 13,450 76,015 0 1,200 9,050 3,000 13,250 1999 109,066 5,436 8,950 172,429 7,847 33,307 219,909 11,036 44,510 142,698 13,730 64,610 0 800 9,050 3,000 12,850 2000 110,561 6,672 10,211 183,502 10,440 39,355 214,358 14,225 49,586 156,384 15,044 65,924 0 800 9,050 3,000 12,850 2001 102,290 5,670 11,278 173,478 10,327 39,267 363,654 15,843 46,042 159,376 15,044 65,924 0 800 9,050 3,000 12,850
2002 104,815 4,004 9,673 163,948 10,926 40,735 336,561 17,155 47,018 156,964 14,107 48,364 0 800 9,050 3,000 12,850 2003 100,475 4,098 9,828 166,416 11,270 43,341 192,251 16,629 43,780 169,265 15,914 50,761 0 800 9,050 3,000 12,850 2004 117,604 4,566 10,356 187,549 11,257 38,980 180,519 17,302 43,256 173,985 16,109 62,083 0 800 9,050 3,000 12,850
2005 125,563 4,762 10,614 209,764 11,316 41,041 191,579 17,834 44,778 195,385 19,250 65,602 0 700 9,100 3,000 12,800 2006 131,864 4,853 10,762 213,891 11,852 40,774 202,137 19,009 44,464 174,305 15,049 52,252 0 700 9,100 3,000 12,800 2007 140,765 4,947 10,914 228,421 13,053 42,033 180,951 19,022 42,947 185,390 16,459 55,017 0 700 9,100 3,000 12,800
2008 140,289 7,578 13,843 217,914 12,758 42,842 215,833 21,006 46,536 189,254 10,983 37,470 0 568 1,628 3,761 1,896 7,285 2009 122,076 6,862 12,399 180,272 8,994 31,302 207,171 18,444 40,924 162,826 9,116 28,502 5,021 31,278 1,748 3,761 1,896 7,405
2010 110,668 6,994 12,587 188,756 11,380 35,061 229,665 18,297 38,292 160,112 8,868 29,267 16,528 41,638 1,748 1,716 3,761 5,600 1,896 600 7,405 7,916
2011 113,703 7,127 12,775 192,719 11,609 34,667 235,154 18,511 37,986 162,785 8,950 26,167 16,528 52,510 1,748 2,208 3,761 5,678 1,896 7,405 2012 116,819 7,264 12,968 194,767 11,840 35,079 240,774 18,727 38,522 165,498 9,034 26,558 16,528 63,647 1,748 2,690 3,761 5,758 1,896 7,405
2013 120,022 7,402 13,163 200,902 12,076 35,498 246,528 18,946 39,066 168,280 9,118 26,955 16,528 75,724 1,748 3,036 3,761 5,838 1,896 7,405
2014 123,312 7,543 13,361 205,128 12,315 35,922 252,420 19,167 39,620 171,117 9,204 27,359 16,528 98,374 1,748 3,968 3,761 5,920 1,896 7,405 2015 126,693 7,698 13,563 209,447 12,562 36,358 258,453 19,393 40,185 174,009 9,290 27,770 16,528 106,958 1,748 4,330 3,761 6,003 1,896 643 7,405 10,976
2016 130,166 7,834 13,768 213,861 12,814 36,802 264,630 19,620 40,757 176,959 9,379 28,189 16,528 113,283 1,748 3,761 3,087 1,896 7,405
2017 133,734 7,985 13,976 218,371 13,071 37,252 270,954 19,850 41,338 179,969 9,468 28,614 16,528 120,701 1,748 4,788 3,761 6,172 1,896 7,405
2018 137,401 8,139 14,189 222,978 13,335 37,711 277,430 20,085 41,930 183,040 9,558 29,047 16,528 1,748 3,761 6,259 1,896 7,405
2019 141,168 8,296 14,405 227,687 13,605 38,179 284,060 20,322 42,530 186,173 9,651 29,489 16,528 1,748 3,761 1,896 7,405
2020 145,039 8,456 14,625 232,498 13,879 38,654 290,848 20,562 43,139 189,367 9,745 29,937 16,528 130,000 1,748 5,262 3,761 6,435 1,896 690 7,405 12,387
2021 149,015 8,620 14,849 237,415 14,159 39,138 297,798 20,806 43,759 192,624 9,840 30,394 16,528 1,748 3,761 6,525 1,896 7,405
2022 153,100 8,786 15,077 242,439 14,445 39,630 304,915 21,052 44,387 195,931 9,937 30,860 16,528 1,748 3,761 6,617 1,896 7,405
2023 157,297 8,954 15,307 247,576 14,736 40,130 312,200 21,303 45,027 199,321 10,035 31,335 16,528 1,748 3,761 6,710 1,896 7,405
2024 161,611 9,126 15,541 252,828 15,033 40,638 319,662 21,557 45,676 202,779 10,135 31,818 16,528 1,748 3,761 6,803 1,896 7,405
2025 166,044 9,300 15,777 258,195 15,336 41,154 327,302 21,816 46,337 206,305 10,236 32,310 16,528 150,000 1,748 6,052 3,761 6,897 1,896 740 7,405 13,689
2026 170,597 9,478 16,017 263,679 15,644 41,679 335,124 22,078 47,008 209,902 10,339 32,811 16,528 1,748 3,761 6,995 1,896 7,405
2027 175,275 9,659 16,262 269,285 15,961 42,215 343,133 22,343 47,689 213,571 10,443 33,320 16,528 1,748 3,761 7,093 1,896 7,405
2028 180,082 9,845 16,512 275,013 16,286 42,763 351,333 22,613 48,385 217,312 10,548 33,837 16,528 1,748 3,761 7,192 1,896 7,405
2029 185,019 10,034 16,766 280,868 16,617 43,318 359,730 22,887 49,092 221,129 10,654 34,363 16,528 1,748 3,761 7,293 1,896 7,405 Formatted: Justified, Don't hyphenate, Tab
stops: 3.25", Centered
Mammoth Yosemite Airport Layout Plan May 2012 3-23 CHAPTER 3 – AVIATION FORECASTS
2030 190,093 10,226 17,024 286,857 16,954 43,882 368,327 23,164 49,809 225,024 10,762 34,900 16,528 170,000 1,748 6,900 3,761 7,395 1,896 790 7,405 15,085
Bold = Future Projection
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Mammoth Yosemite Airport Layout Plan May 2012 3-24 CHAPTER 3 – AVIATION FORECASTS
CHAPTER 3 – AVIATION FORECASTS
Table No. 3-3 MMH Summarization and Documentation of Airport Planning Forecasts
A. Forecast Levels
Base Year: 2010
Annual Operations
Base Yr. Level Base Yr. + 1 Yr. Base Yr. + 5 Yrs. Base Yr. + 10 Yrs Base Yr. + 15 Yrs Base Yr. to +20
Passenger Enplanements
Air Carrier 35,000 45,000 107,000 130,000 160,000 180,000
Commuter 0 0 0 0 0 0
TOTAL 35,000 45,000 107,000 130,000 160,000 180,000
Operations - Fixed Wing
Itinerant
Air carrier 1,716 2,110 3,400 5,100 5,900 6,800
Commuter/air taxi 0 0 0 0 0 0
Total Commercial Operations 1,716 2,110 3,400 5,100 5,900 6,800
General aviation 5,880 5,990 7,080 7,300 7,540 7,900
Military 0 0 0 0 0 0
Local
General aviation 320 320 320 360 360 400
Military 0 0 0 0 0 0
TOTAL OPERATIONS 7,916 8,420 10,800 12,760 13,800 15,100
Instrument Operations 2.9 3.0 3.5 6.4 6.9 7.5
Peak Hour Operations 0 0 0 0 0 0
Cargo/mail (enplaned + deplaned tons)
Based Aircraft - Fixed Wing
Single Engine (Nonjet) 6 6 6 7 7 8
Multi Engine (Nonjet) 2 2 2 2 2 2
Jet Engine 0 0 0 0 0 0
Other 0 0 0 0 0 0
TOTAL 8 8 8 9 9 10
Helicopter*
Based helicopters 0 0 0 0 0 0
Helicopter operations 0 0 0 0 0 0
TAF Total Operations
TAF Based Aircraft
*Note: Helicopter based and operations are not included in data for total operations.
B. Operational Factors
Average Annual
Base Yr. Level Base Yr. + 1 Yr. Base Yr. + 5 Yrs. Base Yr. + 10 Yrs Base Yr. + 15 Yrs Base Yr. to +20 Base Yr. to +5
Average aircraft size (seats)
Air carrier 76 76 76 84 90 83 76
Commuter 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Air taxi 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Average enplaning load factor 54 56 61 61 61 57.5 57.5
Air carrier 54 56 61 61 61 57.5 57.5
Commuter 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Air taxi 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
GA operations per based aircraft
Sources: F.A.A. Terminal Area Forecasts (TAF)
Mammoth Yosemite Airport Formatted: Justified, Don't hyphenate, Tab
stops: 3.25", Centered
Mammoth Yosemite Airport Layout Plan May 2012 3-25 CHAPTER 3 – AVIATION FORECASTS
Prepared by: Reinard W. Brandley, Consulting Airport Engineer
Mammoth Yosemite Airport Layout Plan July 2011 3-14
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Mammoth Yosemite Airport Layout Plan May 2012 3-26 CHAPTER 3 – AVIATION FORECASTS
CHAPTER 3 – AVIATION FORECASTS
Table No. 3-4 Mammoth Yosemite Airport (MMH) Comparison of Airport Planning and TAF Forecasts of Based Fixed Wing Aircraft
Airport AF/TAF (% Year Forecast TAF Difference) Total Based Aircraft - Fixed Wing Base yr. - 2010 2010 8 4 100.0 Base yr. + 5 yrs. 2015 8 4 100.0 Base yr. + 10 yrs. 2020 9 4 125.0 Base yr. + 15 yrs. 2025 9 4 125.0 Base yr. + 20 yrs. 2030 10 4 150.0
Note: TAF data is on a U.S. government fiscal year basis (October through September).
Reason for discrepancy: 1. TAF assumed no increase in forecast annual operations since 1995. 2. Normal growth of airport operations expected to relate to population and employment growth.
Sources: F.A.A. Terminal Area Forecasts (TAF) Mammoth Yosemite Airport (MMH)
Prepared by: Reinard W. Brandley, Consulting Airport Engineer
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Mammoth Yosemite Airport Layout Plan May 2012 3-27 CHAPTER 3 – AVIATION FORECASTS
Mammoth Yosemite Airport Layout Plan July 2011 3-15
Formatted: Justified, Don't hyphenate, Tab stops: 3.25", Centered
Mammoth Yosemite Airport Layout Plan May 2012 3-28 CHAPTER 3 – AVIATION FORECASTS
CHAPTER 3 – AVIATION FORECASTS
Table No. 3-5
Mammoth Yosemite Airport (MMH)
Comparison of Airport Planning and TAF Forecasts
of Annual Operations - Fixed Wing Aircraft
Airport AF/TAF (%
Year Forecast TAF Difference)
Passenger Enplanements
Base yr. - 2010 2010 35,000 16,528 212
Base yr. + 5 yrs. 2015 107,000 16,528 647
Base yr. + 10 yrs. 2020 130,000 16,528 787
Base yr. + 15 yrs. 2025 160,000 16,528 968
Commercial Operations
Base yr. - 2010 2010 1,716 120 1,430
Base yr. + 5 yrs. 2015 3,400 120 2,833
Base yr. + 10 yrs. 2020 5,100 120 4,250
Base yr. + 15 yrs. 2025 5,900 120 4,917
Total Operations
Base yr. - 2010 2010 7,916 7,405 107
Base yr. + 5 yrs. 2015 10,800 7,405 146
Base yr. + 10 yrs. 2020 12,760 7,405 172
Base yr. + 15 yrs. 2025 13,800 7,405 186
Base yr. + 20 yrs. 2030 15,100 7,405 204
Note: TAF data is on a U.S. government fiscal year basis (October through September).
Reason for discrepancy:
1. TAF assumed no increase in forecast annual operations since 1995. 2. Normal growth of airport operations expected to relate to population and employment growth.
Sources: F.A.A. Terminal Area Forecasts (TAF) Mammoth Yosemite Airport (MMH)
Prepared by: Reinard W. Brandley, Consulting Airport Engineer Formatted: Justified, Don't hyphenate, Tab stops: 3.25", Centered
Mammoth Yosemite Airport Layout Plan May 2012 3-29 CHAPTER 3 – AVIATION FORECASTS
Mammoth Yosemite Airport Layout Plan July 2011 3-16
Formatted: Justified, Don't hyphenate, Tab stops: 3.25", Centered
Mammoth Yosemite Airport Layout Plan May 2012 3-30