Climate Change and Renewable Resources in Labrador: Looking Toward 2050 Workshop Report

Climate Change and Renewable Resources in Labrador: Looking toward 2050 Workshop Report

Hosted by Labrador Highlands Research Group and Labrador Institute of Memorial University North West River, Labrador, March 11–13, 2008

Recommended citation:

Bell, T., Jacobs, J.D., Munier, A., Leblanc, P., and Trant, A. 2008. Climate Change and Renewable Resources in Labrador: Looking toward 2050. Proceedings and Report of a Conference held in North West River, Labrador, 11–13 March. St. John’s: Labrador Highlands Research Group, Memorial University of Newfoundland, 95 p and CD‐Rom.

2 Climate Change and Renewable Resources in Labrador: Looking toward 2050

TABLE OF CONTENTS

Executive Summary...... 5

Acknowledgements and Sponsors ...... 8

Conference Rationale and Overview...... 9

Conference Structure ...... 10

Conference Hosts ...... 11 Labrador Highlands Research Group...... 11 Labrador Institute ...... 11

Day 1: Setting the Stage ...... 12 Introduction to the Conference...... 12 Labrador’s Changing Climate ...... 13 Labrador’s renewable resources: past and present ...... 17

Open dialogue- Observations of changes to Labrador’s wildlife and resources ...... 22

Day 2: Looking to the Future ...... 24 Climate Change Projections for Newfoundland and Labrador- A Closer Look ...... 24 Climate Change and Forests in Labrador...... 30 Can Trees Climb Mountains? From Tundra to Trees – a Tale of Changing Treeline in the Highlands of Labrador ...... 31 Sustaining Nitassinan: Facing Climate Change – An Innu Perspective ...... 37 Status of Caribou Herds in Labrador and Potential Effects of Climate Change ...... 39 Climate Change and Seals: A Labrador Perspective with a Focus on the Importance of Sea Ice...... 45 Planet Ocean - Using Seabirds to Assay Climate Change – Implications for Labrador ...... 56 Ecology and Population Dynamics of North Labrador Arctic Charr: A Model Species for Evaluating Impacts of Exploitation and Climate Influences on Population Characteristics ...... 62 Historical Significance and Future Availability of Atlantic Salmon in Labrador...... 68

Public Session: Climate and Environmental Change in the Labrador Highlands...... 76

Day 3: Making our Knowledge Relevant...... 77 Challenges: ...... 77 Priority Actions:...... 79

3 Climate Change and Renewable Resources in Labrador: Looking toward 2050

Closing Remarks...... 82

Appendix 1: Conference Agenda...... 83

Appendix II: Conference Participants...... 84

Appendix III: More detailed participant responses on Day 3...... 86

Appendix IV: Conference Media Exposure ...... 95

4 Climate Change and Renewable Resources in Labrador: Looking toward 2050

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

The Labrador Climate Change Conference was held in North West River from March 11 to 13, 2008. The theme of the conference was reflected in its title: Climate Change and Renewable Resources in Labrador: Looking toward 2050. The conference aimed to examine the relationship of past, present and future climate and climate change to the terrestrial and marine ecosystems of Labrador. These ecosystems support the renewable resource‐based economies and way of life of Labrador communities. The conference was hosted by the Labrador Highlands Research Group and the Labrador Institute, both of Memorial University.

The conference was intended to be both an exchange of information and ideas among scientists and resource managers and a dialogue between scientists, policy makers, local experts and representatives of the communities that are being affected by the changing climate. Our commitment to information sharing and dialogue shaped the structure of the conference. There were three main sessions: (i) an open dialogue on personal and traditional perspectives of resources and environmental change in Labrador; (ii) scientific presentations on past, present, and potential future interactions of climate and renewable resources in Labrador; and (iii) a facilitated public workshop in which conference participants and members of the public were challenged to set priorities for the development of adaptive strategies for climate change impacts. A special session on climate change in Labrador was delivered to Environmental Technology and Adult Education students from Sheshatshiu, North West River and Natuashish.

The response of the Labrador community to the conference far exceeded our expectations. All of the sessions were overflowing and a rich dialogue of traditional, local and scientific perspectives occurred in response to expert presentations, local observations, and future scenarios. Over 30 agencies were represented at the conference. Sessions involved up to 135 participants including members of the local public (25%) and Aboriginal governments (17%), and representatives from 10 communities across Labrador.

The conference report summarizes these discussions while digital MP3 recordings and PowerPoint presentations provide audio and visual documentation, respectively. These resources will soon be available on the conference web site (http://www.mun.ca/geog/lhrg/) and publicized to conference registrants.

5 Climate Change and Renewable Resources in Labrador: Looking toward 2050

‐ Timing and extent of traditional animal migrations (e.g., caribou, polar bears, seal, fish) ‐ New range extensions of southern species (e.g., insects, terrestrial and marine mammals, tree and plant species) ‐ Increased variability in snowfall, snowmelt, sea‐ice formation, extent and thickness, storminess, wind strength and direction ‐ Country food availability (e.g. berries)

There was broad agreement that a wealth of knowledge about the environment exists in Labrador communities, and that a coordinated effort is needed to collect, assess, and disseminate this information. If a network were established it would give everyone access to a broader perspective on the changes that are occurring throughout Labrador, and protocols could be established to standardize the way that observations are collected so that they can be more effectively compared across the region. It was noted that such monitoring must be community based and allow for focused observation on aspects of the environment that are most relevant to each community.

Day 2 presentations on past, present, and potential future interactions of climate and renewable resources in Labrador generated interesting debate among local experts, resource managers and scientists. Some notable or recurring points included:

‐ The importance of singular events in tipping the natural system – one example illustrated the resource shifts that occurred following a cold event in the marine system off Newfoundland and Labrador in the early 1990s;

‐ The value of long term records in understanding climate and resource trends ‐ The need to recognize that natural systems are complex and are being influence not only by climate but other natural and anthropogenic drivers ‐ The importance of cumulative events or drivers in perturbing the natural ecosystem ‐ The value of recording local observations of climate and resource change

The facilitated workshop identified key challenges presented by climate change to renewable resources in Labrador. They are briefly summarized here in order of consensus: 6 Climate Change and Renewable Resources in Labrador: Looking toward 2050

• Communicating knowledge • Understanding changes to harvested species • Collecting long‐term environmental data • Uncertainty about climate change impacts • Travel and infrastructure safety • Making climate change a regional, national and international priority • Maintaining cultural identity • Sustainable development • Maintaining biodiversity • Understanding the cumulative impacts of issues beyond climate change

The workshop participants also identified the top priorities for developing adaptive strategies to climate change in Labrador. These actions included:

• Improve collaboration amongst communities, researchers, and governments • Establish monitoring programs • Educate and engage communities • Adapt infrastructure for coming changes • Garner support for climate change action • Ensure support for health and safety • Make communities more sustainable • Maintain ecosystem conservation • Prioritize actions

The knowledge gained from this conference will be communicated to Labrador communities and organizations through a series of measures, including posting of a report and poster in each community, a web‐accessible presentation, and a one‐page brief for circulation in local newsletters. In the near future, the Labrador Highlands Research Group in collaboration with the Labrador Institute will meet with government agencies, provincial and local organizations and communities to discuss how conference priority actions may be initiated under new and existing climate change adaptation and northern development strategies for Labrador. The suggestion that regional climate adaptation workshops be held around Labrador in partnership with local organizations was strongly endorsed by conference participants and should facilitate focused discussion on climate and resource themes of local concern and interest. These workshops will build on the dialogue and partnerships established in March 2008 at the Labrador Climate Change conference in North West River.

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ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS AND SPONSORS

This conference would not have been possible without the hard work and dedication of many people. We offer heartfelt thanks and appreciation for the ideas, efforts, and grunt work of organizers Leander Baikie, Mina Campbell‐Hibbs, Sean Handregan, Phillipe LeBlanc, and Martha MacDonald.

We thank speakers and facilitators Trevor Bell, Chantelle Burke, Keith Chaulk, Valerie Courtois, Brian Dempson, Larry Felt, Luise Hermanutz, John Jacobs, Rebecca Jeffery, Gary Lines, Martin Moroni, David Natcher (unable to attend), Rob Greenwood, and Becky Sjare.

We were honoured to have the participation of elders Perry Michelin, Caroline Edwards, Louie Montague and Lloyd Montague.

For adding their musical spirit we thank Gary and Jennifer Mitchell and Louie and Tom Montague.

Caterers Leanne Michelin and Tinlaw Martin kept us well fed and cheerfully adapted to the changing participant numbers. The traditional donuts provided by Mary Anne Montague were the highlight of the conference for many and appreciated by everyone!

For financial and in‐kind support we are grateful to:

• Aboriginal and Northern Community Action Plan, Indian and Northern Affairs Canada • Northern Ecosystem Initiative, Environment Canada • Environment and Conservation, Government of Newfoundland and Labrador • Government of Canada Program for International Polar Year • Labrador Highlands Research Group , Labrador Institute of Memorial University • Leslie Harris Centre of Regional Policy and Development, Memorial University

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CONFERENCE RATIONALE AND OVERVIEW

This conference aimed to examine the relationship of past, present and future climate and climate change to the terrestrial and marine ecosystems of Labrador. These ecosystems support the renewable resource‐based economies and way of life of Labrador communities. The conference has been organized in response to community concerns about the impacts climate change may have on these ecosystems. It is also part of the Labrador Highlands Research Group program to communicate climate change science results to policy and decision makers at community and governments levels.

Upland pond in the Red Wine Mountains where evidence was found that points to forest at higher elevations 4000 years ago.

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CONFERENCE STRUCTURE

Setting the Stage: This first day of the conference was intended to set the stage on past and present climate and renewable resource changes in Labrador for conference registrants and the general public. Following lunch there was an open dialogue on personal and traditional perspectives on resources and environmental change in Labrador.

Looking to the Future: The focus of the second day was information sharing on past, present, and potential future interactions of climate and renewable resources in Labrador. Featured talks were given by researchers at the Labrador Interpretation Centre while a hands‐on, public information session and poster presentations by conference participants were on display for public viewing at the Community Hall.

Public Drop‐in: On the afternoon of the second day, members of the Labrador Highlands Research Group, Memorial University, presented a workshop on climate change in Labrador for members of the public. They were also available to receive comments and observations from local community members who dropped in to the community hall.

Making our Knowledge Relevant: The conference culminated on the third day with a public session about adapting to the realities of a changing climate. The session was facilitated by Rob Greenwood, The Leslie Harris Centre of Regional Policy and Development, Memorial University. In this exercise, conference participants and members of the public were challenged to set priorities for developing adaptive strategies and to help direct the way forward for future dialogue and action.

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CONFERENCE HOSTS

Labrador Highlands Research Group

The Labrador Highlands Research Group is composed of researchers in the departments of Biology and Geography at Memorial University. Since 2001 the LHRG has been researching the sensitivity of tundra and treeline ecosystems to climate change in highland areas of Newfoundland and Labrador. Research has been based in the Mealy Mountains and Red Wine Mountains of Labrador, the Long Range Mountains in Newfoundland, and, more recently, the Torngat Mountains in Labrador.

Aims are to:

‐ Better understand these ecosystems in relation to their local climates ‐ Determine how they evolved in the past ‐ Predict what will happen to them under a future, perhaps very different, climate.

Labrador Institute

The Labrador Institute of Memorial University was established by the University to stimulate, coordinate, and support major University projects and programs designed to promote the well‐being of the people of Labrador and to expand the Labrador knowledge base. Its location in Happy Valley‐Goose Bay, the geographic centre of Labrador, gives it a perspective on regional and aboriginal issues that direct the operations of the Institute. The Institute identifies opportunities in research where the capabilities of the University may enhance our knowledge of Labrador and address concerns of the community, and puts forward educational needs for continuing human resource and cultural development. The Institute: ‐ Is the main contact point for the University in Labrador ‐ Maintains communications with aboriginal and community groups ‐ Sponsors many cultural activities including the Labrador Creative Arts Festival ‐ Facilitates and coordinates the activity of personnel at the University as they undertake cultural, research and educational activities

11 Climate Change and Renewable Resources in Labrador: Looking toward 2050

DAY 1: SETTING THE STAGE

Introduction to the Conference

The conference was opened by Mina Campbell‐ Hibbs from the Labrador Interpretation Centre. Elder Caroline Edwards offered an opening prayer, and Perry Michelin welcomed participants to North West River.

Trevor Bell and John Jacobs, co‐chairs of the conference and members of the Labrador Highlands Research Group, welcomed everyone on behalf of Memorial University and introduced the aims and structure of the conference. Trevor Bell explained that there were three main conference goals. First, the conference represented an opportunity for researchers and Labradoreans to share their knowledge of changes in the natural environment. As a member of the Labrador Highlands Research Group, he stressed the importance of communicating research results to communities and noted that this conference builds on community consultations by members of the research group in previous years.

A second goal of the conference was to build awareness of climate change and variability and their potential impacts on the environment, resources and communities of Labrador. Labradoreans are well aware of past and present changes in climate and environment and we plan to record this traditional and local information through information sharing sessions. Perhaps less well known are the anticipated future changes in climate and renewable resources and we have invited specialists on these issues to present up‐to‐date syntheses of future scenarios and impacts. This is the focus of Day 2 of the conference.

The third goal of the conference was to initiate a discussion on how Labrador communities can understand and be better prepared for climate change and its associated impacts. This includes both taking advantage of new opportunities and coping with negative effects.. An important contribution to this discussion is how Labradoreans have lived with and responded to past changes in climate, resources and environment. This will be an ongoing dialogue during the conference but is the specific focus of Day 3 during the facilitated workshop on climate change adaptation in Labrador.

To help set the stage for the conference theme – Climate Change and Renewable Resources in Labrador: Looking toward 2050 – two public presentations opened the conference. One by John Jacobs and Trevor Bell, Geography Department, Memorial University, described Labrador’s changing climate, while the other by Keith Chaulk, Director, Labrador Institute of Memorial University, outlined Labrador’s renewable resources, past and present.

12 Climate Change and Renewable Resources in Labrador: Looking toward 2050

Labrador’s Changing Climate

John Jacobs ([email protected]) and Trevor Bell ([email protected]), Labrador Highlands Research Group, Memorial University

To set the stage for this conference, we begin by summarizing what we know about the climate of Labrador in the recent and distant past, as well as the present. This leads us to the point where we can consider possible future climates.

What determines the character of Labrador’s climate?

Labrador’s LATITUDE, comfortably between 50 and 60 degrees north of the Equator is the main factor that determines the cool character and strong seasonality of our climate.

GEOGRAPHIC LOCATION ‐ Labrador lies next to the cold, seasonally ice‐infested Labrador Sea, and on the ‘downwind’ side of the Canadian land mass.

PREVAILING WINDS ‐ Prevailing winds are from the northwest to southwest. Storm tracks converge into the Labrador Sea from the west to southwest, giving this region an abundance and variety of weather systems.

ELEVATION AND RELIEF ‐ Extensive plateaus over 500 metres above sea level and mountains reaching above 1000 metres affect temperature, precipitation, and wind regimes. The varied topography, countless ponds and lakes, and extensive wetlands enrich the complexity of the weather through multiple feedbacks.

What causes variability in our climate between years and over a few decades?

El Niño and La Niña are part of a multiyear ocean‐ atmosphere variation in the equatorial Pacific Ocean region that connects with climate in many parts of the world, including western and central Canada, but not so clearly our region. In fact, short‐term variations in the climate in northeastern Canada are linked most closely to events in the North Atlantic.

The North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) is a decadal‐scale variation in the pressure and wind patterns over the North Atlantic. These changes affect the climates of all mid‐latitude regions that border the North Atlantic, but in different ways.

When the NAO is in the POSITIVE mode, northeastern Canada and western Greenland experience COLDER and usually DRIER winters. When the NAO is in the NEGATIVE mode, northeastern Canada and western Greenland experience WARMER and usually WETTER winters. For most of the past 15 years, the

13 Climate Change and Renewable Resources in Labrador: Looking toward 2050

NAO has been in a negative (warmer) mode. However, in the winter of 2007‐08, the NAO index was positive.

How has the climate changed in the past?

For over 100,000 years, the Earth (and Labrador) was much colder than now. The main glaciers cleared from Labrador less than 10,000 years ago. The last glacial era was marked by large, sometimes abrupt swings in climate. The climate of the postglacial (Holocene) era has been relatively steady.

With deglaciation, Labrador warmed significantly, with the highest temperatures occurring between 4000 and 7000 years ago. Logs in ponds and bogs above the present tree line are evidence of a warmer climate in the past.

Tree ring samples are used by researchers to track climate in the Mealy Mountains over the last 300 years. These reflect the main regional climatic events of the past 300 years, including the last stages of the “Little Ice Age” that ended in the early 1800s.

To summarize:

‐ Labrador was mainly ice‐covered for over 100,000 years, ending between 10,000 to 8,000 years ago. ‐ Warming peaked from 6000 to 4000 years ago, with summer temperatures similar to present. ‐ A cool, wet period followed with some warmer and colder episodes, including the “Little Ice Age” that ended in the early 1800s. ‐ A warming trend was under way by the 1940s.

What about recent variations and trends?

While there are scattered written records of weather observations going well back into the 1800s, the period of continuous instrumental record in Labrador begins in the 1930s and 40s. These records provide the basis for analysis to detect any trends. We have reviewed the records for central Labrador with the following results.

Summary of recent climate trends in Labrador

Following a period of strong regional cooling through the 80s, a warming trend has become apparent in all seasons since the early – mid 1990s. The warming is seen not only at surface stations, but extends several kilometers upward, as shown by upper air soundings.

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Warming in Labrador at the start of the 21st Century appears to be proceeding in phase with global trends.

Annual precipitation shows no significant trend but regional stream flow has decreased since the 1970s and 80s as a consequence of increased evaporation and transpiration.

No trend in regional precipitation

Goose A and Cartwright Annual Precipitation Relative to 1971-2000 1.60

1.40

1.20

1.00

depYYR 0.80 depWCA PRECIP ANOMALY ANOMALY PRECIP 0.60

1971-2000 averages 0.40 Goose A 1094 mm Cartwright 1172 mm 0.20

0.00 1938 1941 1944 1947 1950 1953 1956 1959 1962 1965 1968 1971 1974 1977 1980 1983 1986 1989 1992 1995 1998 2001 2004 YEAR (1938-2005)

Winter of 2007‐08 saw a return to regionally cold and dry conditions related to a new positive NAO phase.

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Warming recently in all seasons

Cartwright Seasonal Departures of Daily Temperatures from 1971-2000 Averages 7.0

6.0

5.0

4.0

3.0

2.0

1.0 DJF T(C) MAM 0.0 JJA

1935 1938 1941 1944 1947 1950 1953 1956 1959 1962 1965 1968 1971 1974 1977 1980 1983 1986 1989 1992 1995 1998 2001 2004 SON -1.0

-2.0

-3.0

-4.0

-5.0 YEAR (1935 - 2006)

What will the climate of Labrador be like in the future?

The results of recent Canadian climate modeling exercises are the subject of another presentation in this conference by Gary Lines of the Meteorological Service of Canada.

Our own initial review of these scenarios suggests the following conditions for Labrador by 2050:

• Winters warmer by 3 to 4oC. Spring, summer, and fall warmer by 2 to 3oC. • Slightly more precipitation (10 to 20%), with more fall and winter rain events. • Reduced stream flow, due to increased evaporation and transpiration. • Continued inter‐annual and decadal scale variability.

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Labrador’s renewable resources: past and present

Keith Chaulk ([email protected]), Labrador Institute

All change is relative. This is especially important to remember when conducting investigations of climate and its impacts on the natural environment. Over time all ecosystems undergo change. However, in order to understand the processes behind change or to develop mitigation plans for rapidly induced anthropogenic environmental variation, it may require a basic understanding of the natural rate of change for a given area. This is not easy. In most cases ecosystems and biomes are not well described, and if they are the scientific descriptions tend to be static in nature, with limited temporal scope. This makes establishing a baseline for what may be considered a “normal” rate of change difficult, although not impossible.

In northern areas that have received limited research attention, some of the best long‐term knowledge of the environment resides with local residents in the form of traditional knowledge. However, this form of knowledge also has its limits. As such one approach to establishing longer temporal baselines with respect to environmental change, especially in relation to species with major cultural, commercial or subsistence value is to blend both scientific research and traditional knowledge, into a larger knowledge system.

I was asked to give a talk that blended both traditional knowledge and science. Anyone who has worked with these two subject areas will know that there is quite a lot of controversy as to whether these two knowledge systems can be combined. The way I have chosen to navigate this problem is to rely on what I consider to be traditional knowledge handed down to me by my family, who have lived in this area for many generations and who have made their living by hunting, trapping, fishing and living off the land and sea. Using the traditional knowledge of my family as a starting point, I then contacted some people who work on natural resources in Labrador and asked them what they knew about those animal species I was interested in. Finally I consulted published reports to help fill in the blanks, while attempting to give equal weight to all information sources. The result is likely to be a talk that does not contain enough science for the scientists and not enough traditional knowledge for the rest.

The talk I was asked to give was on Labrador’s renewable resources: past and present. This topic is quite vast it covers everything from water, air, plants and animals to most everything in between. The topic is also difficult because as indicated above natural resources are usually in a state of flux, whether this flux is seasonal, follows semi regular patterns, or is chaotic in nature. The important concept here is that natural systems, regardless of the boundaries we use to define them change with time, and therefore measures of change are relative depending on what we call the past. If we go back in time 1 million years bp, the plants and animals in Labrador were quite different than they are today. With this said my talk focuses on some known and suspected changes that have occurred in Labrador’s fauna over the last 100 years.

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When talking about recent changes in Labrador we need look no further than this small town. About 35 years ago North West River extended not much further than Lake Melville School, just down the road. Since that time the size of NWR has almost doubled, at the same time the population has shrunk. This presentation will focus on changes in Labrador’s renewable resources, with emphasis on some animal populations and how they have changed in the last 100 years. In some cases these population like this town have either shrunk or grown. My hope is that this talk will get each of you thinking about our renewable resources, and what changes are in store for us in the future especially in light of some of the predictions around climate change and global warming. Before I proceed I should mention those people who assisted me with this talk.

Acknowledgements

Special Thanks to: Tony Chubbs, Frank Phillips, Douglas Blake, Judy Rowell, Angus Simpson, Bernard Chaulk, George Chaulk, Ron Webb, Bill Montevecchi.

Common Black Headed Gull

A few years back, my uncle and I were coming back from our cabin. It was a really hot Canada Day in 2002, probably the hottest day I can ever remember being out in boat. We decided to stop ashore and see how the Common and Arctic Terns were doing with their nesting. Next thing I know my uncle calls out and asks if I saw that funny bird fly over‐head. I managed to snap off a few pictures. Turns out it was a common black headed gull. The black headed gull is actually a European species, the first known breeding occurrence in North America was documented in 1977 in Newfoundland, near Stephenville crossing (Montevecchi et al 1987). The record I discuss here is the first known nest records for the common black headed gull in Labrador (Chaulk et al. 2004). As I said before the black headed gull is a European species and it has only recently arrived in North America. The general route across the Atlantic seems to be from Great Britain to Iceland around 1910. The next jump seems to have been from Iceland to Newfoundland by 1977 (Montevecchi et al. 1987), and then on to Labrador by 2002.

Caspian Tern

The next species I will discuss is the Caspian Tern. Some of the older people in my family use to do a lot of goose hunting on the eastern end of Lake Melville. In 2002 I took my father and uncle out with me in boat to show them the Caspian tern. Upon seeing and hearing the Caspian tern they confirmed the first time they recall encountering this bird was in the mid 1980’s. They mainly knew it thru its call which is loud and harsh and fairly distinct, although they did confirm having seen it as well. My father and Uncle have told me that the call of this bird would sometime scare away the geese they were hunting in an area known as Valleys Bight. The observations by elders in my family in the mid 1980’s correspond closely with the first nest record in Labrador collected by Tony Lock in 1979 (Lock 1980).

It appears that Caspian Terns may becoming more abundant, since my initial encounters with them in 2001 and 2002 (Chaulk et al. 2004). Since that time I have seen Caspians near my cabin about 50 miles north of Goose Bay in the fall, I have also seen them on the south side of Groswater Bay during the summer. 18 Climate Change and Renewable Resources in Labrador: Looking toward 2050

Double Crested Cormorants

I now move onto discuss the Double Crested Cormorant which are becoming more and more common throughout Labrador. It seems likely cormorants have been in Labrador for a long time. But they must have under went a major decline, because up until 5‐10 years ago they were quite rare. An old English name for the cormorant is Shag, and if we look at old maps of the Labrador coast you will se a number of islands called Shag Rocks, or some version thereof, suggesting they were present in Labrador at one time (Chaulk et al. 2004). I believe that Todd (1963) in his book the Birds of Labrador references a local man by the name of John Goudie living near Groswater Bay who reported the annual reoccurrence of flocks of cormorants in the late 1800’s. Personally I also remember as a child different people around North West River talking about Shags. So people knew of them even in recent times, but again they were quite rare. Its unclear how many cormorants currently breed in Labrador, but I would not be surprised if the number is now approaching or has exceeded 1000 birds.

Moose

Some of the first reports of moose in Labrador are from the late 1940’s, most likely a natural expansion from Quebec, with an active introduction onto the south coast of Labrador from Newfoundland in early 1950’s (F. Phillips pers. comm.). This corresponds closely with traditional stories by elders in central Labrador. It appears that within living memory that there were no moose in Labrador until the middle of the 20th century. It seems the first moose from around the Nain area were reported in the early 1980’s. So their range in Labrador has been steadily increasing ever since .

Muskox

It appears that several Muskox are currently residing in Labrador, although the size of the population and extent of their distribution is not well known. At least one Muskox is currently living on an island south of 20‐30 km south of Nain. It seems that Muskox in Labrador can be traced to a release of Muskox in Quebec in 1973 and 1983. The first written records of Muskox in Labrador come from 7 islands bay several 100 kilometers north of Nain, these observation were made by Joe Brazil in 1988.

Miscellaneous Range Expansions

In addition to the species discussed in more detail above, I have attached a table outlining some other known or suspected range expansions in Labrador in the last 100 years. This list is not meant to be comprehensive.

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Species Description Source Porcupine Once common, declined throughout most of Anecdotal various Lab in 1960’s‐ 1970’s. Population rebounding sources Marten Possible decline in late 19th century or early Anecdotal various part of 20th century, re‐emergence in 1950’s, sources fairly common today Coyote First documented in 1995, most recent 2005. Chubbs and Phillips No records from northern Labrador 2005 Starling Originally introduced into north America in Harrison Lewis 1890 (Auk 1935) Records from Natashquan in 1933. Now fairly common in Goose bay, may occasionally be found further North. Mourning Dove? Becoming common in North West river by various sources mid‐late 1980’s. Over wintering now. Possibly surviving off bird feeders. One record from Nain in1928.

Species Extinctions

The reader may note that most of the information up to this point has represented either increases or additions to Labrador animal populations and biodiversity. Given that in the long term global warming and climate change is expected to have negative impacts on plant and animal populations I thought it was important to mention some animal populations that have disappeared. As in the previous table this is not meant to be a comprehensive list, and its quite likely that some species that are missing or even argue about the inclusion of some of these species on this list.

20 Climate Change and Renewable Resources in Labrador: Looking toward 2050

Species Description Labrador Duck Last record from 1875, New York. Now extinct!! Great Auk No documented breeding colonies in Labrador but colonies in Greenland and in Newfoundland. Bones have been found in northern Labrador. Thought that GA’s moved along the Labrador coast between NF and Greenland. Last specimen collected in 1844 from Iceland. Eskimo Curlew Last nest record 1866. Last wintering record in 1939 (SA),

Last confirmed photograph 1961, last confirmed specimen 1963

Estimated between 0‐20 individuals left alive. Grizzly Bear Recently re‐evaluated by Stephen Loring and Arthur Speiss (2006). Concluded evidence from multiple sources substantiate the idea that grizzly bears were in Ungava/Labrador region in late 19th and early 20th century. Walrus Northwest Atlantic population (which includes Labrador) is listed as extirpated. One killed in late 1980’s in okak bay. Possible sighting in February 2008 east of Nain. East of skull island.

Conclusion

Most of the species I have discussed are fairly large and easy to see, which makes me wonder what is happening with those organisms we know less about and pay less attention to and are more difficult to observe. We should also acknowledge that some of the changes I have discussed could be the result of incomplete records, or maybe related to recent increases in research effort in Labrador. As a result people may simply be documenting animals that have been here all along. In other cases animals may have undergone range contractions and expansions, and over the time period I discuss. For example, animals like moose may have been present in Labrador 500 hundred years ago, then underwent a range contraction only to have reappeared I the last 50‐60 years. Because of these complications we may never fully understand that natural rate of change in Labrador, however it may be possible to estimate a rate of turn over that includes both the introduction of new species and the extinction of others.

Over the next few days you are going to hear a variety of researchers and scientists talk about climate change. However I think it will be very important for local people that live in Labrador be part of these discussions. As such our conference organizers have made time available for scientists and non scientists to talk in more informal settings. I hope that during these break out sessions people will discuss their concerns over what climate change may mean for Labrador in terms of the lifestyles that people lead, the cultures they embrace and also what it will mean for our economic future.

In closing I would like to leave you with a question: If Labrador is changing, and if global warming speeds these changes up, what will it mean for our renewable resources like the plants and animals that live here. If our resources change by the 2050 what will these changes mean for the way we live, what will it mean for our economy, our infrastructure and our future in general?

21 Climate Change and Renewable Resources in Labrador: Looking toward 2050

OPEN DIALOGUE‐ OBSERVATIONS OF CHANGES TO LABRADOR’S WILDLIFE AND RESOURCES

Following a community lunch Dr. Keith Chaulk (Labrador Institute) and Mr. Leander Baikie (Central Labrador Development Board) facilitated an open discussion to share ideas and perspectives about what changes have been observed in the environment, wildlife, and natural resources in Labrador in recent years, and why this may be.

Discussions were prompted on:

‐ Harp seals: There are far fewer harp seals being observed in Lake Melville during recent years, though they were once so plentiful that they were used to feed dogs. It was also noted that it has been more common to see harp seals frozen out on the ice in some coastal areas. Two years ago about 300 seals were trapped on the ice near Makkovik. A scientist from the Department of Fisheries and Oceans suggested that these strandings may have occurred because of unusual freeze‐up patterns in coastal bays. In many areas it has been windier in the fall and ice has been taking longer to form; however, once conditions improve freezing occurs quite rapidly‐ trapping the seals. These events have occurred historically, but are not common. Harp seals are a pack ice seal and do not maintain holes in solid bay or coastal ice whereas ringed seals maintain holes all winter and therefore are less affected by rapid freeze‐up.

‐ Polar bears: There have been increasing numbers of polar bear sightings in communities in recent springs, including Forteau on the South Coast and Nain in the north. It was suggested that this could be related to changing sea ice conditions. Some polar bears move into the harp seal whelping ground to hunt, and if the ice breaks‐up and melts more quickly than usual in the spring, then the bears enter the water and swim to the nearest piece of land, which often takes them through communities

‐ Berries: Very few blackberries (crowberries) have been observed fruiting around North West River in recent years, though the plants are still present and the berries were abundant in previous decades. Many are still being collected on the South Coast and no differences in their numbers were noted in other parts of Labrador

‐ Insects: The question was raised about whether changes in insects, and particularly pollinators, had been noted. o There were once more bumblebees than are presently observed and they used to be used for fishing. Now only wasps are common. 22 Climate Change and Renewable Resources in Labrador: Looking toward 2050

o The hemlock looper is “exploding” in central Labrador, leaving dead red trees all along the Mishtashipu / Churchill / Grand River. This has never occurred in local memory. o The spruce budworm has also become common. o A hard‐shelled insect (beetle) was observed swarming in a Goose Bay shed in August that had never been seen before.

‐ Fish: o The number and size of salmon in Lake Melville have increased with the end of the commercial fishery (they were once 8‐10 lbs., and now weigh in at 15 lbs) o Capelin have been rolling again for the first time in recent decades around the South Coast of Labrador, and they are now present for longer periods of time than they had been decades ago. It was pointed out that capelin are a good species to keep an eye on, as they play a large role in the food chain; therefore changes to their populations will affect many other species

Other notable wildlife observations included:

‐ Mourning doves are increasing in North West River ‐ Grizzly bears were sighted in Postville (though it was noted that brown‐ phased black bears can be easily confused with grizzlies) ‐ A fisher was sighted in 2006 in North West River ‐ A wolverine observed east of Kamistasin ‐ Coyote first sighted in mid‐1980s ‐ Frog populations appear to be decreasing ‐ Ruby throated hummingbird noted near Cartwright ‐ Northern shovellers are being sighted more frequently ‐ A bobcat or lynx was seen in recent years not far from Northwest River ‐ Kestrel observed near Goose Bay ‐ Cattel egrets observed ‐ Great blue herons are becoming more common, and have been observed as far north as Nain

Several participants pointed out that a wealth of knowledge about the environment exists in Labrador communities, and a coordinated body to collect, assess, and disseminate this information is needed. A network could be established to give everyone access to a broader perspective on the changes that are occurring throughout Labrador. Protocols could be established to standardize the way that observations are collected so that they can be more effectively compared across regions. The Ecological Monitoring and Assessment Network (EMAN) once had such a mandate. Though its funding has now been cut, their monitoring protocols are still available on their website (www.rese.ca/eman). It was noted that such initiatives must be community based and allow for focused observation on aspects of the environment that are most relevant to each community.

23 Climate Change and Renewable Resources in Labrador: Looking toward 2050

DAY 2: LOOKING TO THE FUTURE

The following extended abstracts provide an overview of featured presentations on Day 2. They may be read while viewing the related PowerPoint presentations which are available on the attached CD‐Rom. Please seek permission from authors to reproduce any material from their abstracts or presentations.

Climate Change Projections for Newfoundland and Labrador‐ A Closer Look

Gary Lines ([email protected]), Meteorological Society of Canada

1. INTRODUCTION

In order to best assess the expected climate change impacts on a species, ecosystem or natural resource in a region, climate variables and climate change scenarios must be developed on a regional or even site‐specific scale (Wilby et al, 2001). To provide these values, projections of climate variables must be ‘downscaled’ from the GCM results, utilizing either dynamical or statistical methods (IPCC, 2001)

Downscaling can be accomplished by using either a Regional Climate Model (RCM), or a statistical technique. Statistical approaches are preferred when time and computer power are limited.

This study utilized the Statistical Downscaling Model (SDSM), developed by Wilby, Dawson and Barrow (2001), which was downloaded from the SDSM UK website (http://www‐ staff.lboro.ac.uk/~cocwd/sdsm.html).

Observed data sets of daily maximum temperature (Tmax), daily minimum temperature (Tmin), and total daily precipitation (Pcpn) were used as predictands. SDSM was calibrated using physically related ‘predictor’ variables, i.e. meteorological variables capable of being accurately simulated into the future by a GCM, fully realizing that some variables (temperature or atmospheric circulation) are more confidently projected than humidity (Gachon, 2005).

Calibrated models were tested and fine tuned against known data. These validated models were then used to construct suites of downscaled climate variable projections at selected sites in Newfoundland and Labrador.

24 Climate Change and Renewable Resources in Labrador: Looking toward 2050

Predictor values from the Canadian Coupled General Circulation Model version 2 (CGCM2) (Boer et al., 2000; Flato et al., 2000) and the Hadley Research Center’s Hadley Climate Model version 3 (HadCM3) running the SRES emission scenario experiment B2 were obtained from the Climate Change Scenarios Network website (http://www.cccsn.ca).

2. BACKGROUND

Newfoundland and Labrador are considered part of Atlantic Canada which is situated along the east coast of Canada covering nearly 20 degrees of latitude and 20 degrees of longitude. The climate of the region is varied, including Atlantic, Boreal, and Sub‐Arctic climates and is strongly influenced by both the warm Gulf Stream and the cold Labrador Current.

Utilizing GCM output alone over this region limits the researcher to a small number of grid‐boxes to cover all sites of interest (see Fig1).

Fig 1 CGCM2 Grid Boxes in Atlantic Canada.

Five were used in this study, spanning 300 x 400km each according to the horizontal resolution of the CGCM2 and the HadCM3. Some of these boxes are defined as ‘ocean’ boxes’ (e.g. box 33x10y, which is closest to Cartwright), and where the climate variables respond as if the surface boundary is North Atlantic Ocean water.

3. DATA

Daily maximum temperature (Tmax), daily minimum temperature (Tmin), and total daily wet day precipitation >0.25mm/day (Pcpn) for the 30 year period 1961‐90 at five sites in Newfoundland and Labrador were used in this study, as shown in Fig 1.

3.1 Observed temperature and precipitation data sets

The observed temperature and precipitation data sets were extracted from the Adjusted Historical Canadian Climate Database (AHCCD). The AHCCD consists of daily minimum, maximum, and mean temperatures for 210 stations across Canada (Vincent, 1998).

25 Climate Change and Renewable Resources in Labrador: Looking toward 2050

The data have been adjusted for inhomogeneities caused by non‐climatic factors, such as station relocation and changes in observing practices, using a regression model technique. Monthly adjustment factors from previous work were interpolated to generate daily factors. These factors were used to obtain the adjusted daily temperature and precipitation values resulting in the reliable long‐term daily data set used in this analysis.

3.2 Reanalysis predictor sets used for the calibration process

To provide gridded reanalysis data sets used in the calibration process of SDSM, the National Centre for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) products were interpolated to the CGCM2 grid over the Atlantic Region. Both the GCM variables and the NCEP data sets were made available for the grid‐boxes illustrated in Fig 1.

3.3 Forecast predictor sets

The projected GCM output over Newfoundland and Labrador, for both the CGCM2 and HadCM3 were taken from the Climate Change Scenarios Network website (CCSN). Predictors ranged from basic variables such as mean surface temperature, mean sea level pressure, and specific humidity, to geopotential heights and geostrophic winds reconstructed from pressure gradients, all at three different levels in the troposphere (i.e. at 1000, 850 and 500 hPa). The predictor sets are available for three future tri‐decadal periods; the 2020s (2010‐2039), the 2050s (2040‐2069), and the 2080s (2070‐2099). They are in the form of daily data from the SRES B2 emission experiment normalized with respect to 1961‐1990.

4. METHODOLOGY

The methodology used in this study followed the procedure previously outlined by Lines et al. (2005). The methodology is also fully described in the SDSM ‘Users Manual’, by Wilby Dawson and Barrow (2001), which can be downloaded from the SDSM web site.

This study used Stardex (Statistical and Regional dynamical Downscaling of Extremes) version 3.2.6 which produced 250 analyses of 52 indices. The software calculated all indices seasonally as well as annually (except degree days, growing season length, and frost season length). Results of one of those indices are noted in Table 4.

The return periods of an extreme value such as 24‐hour precipitation (Table 3) were analyzed, using the method of moments developed by Gumbel (1941) and adapted to precipitation extremes by Bruce (1966). A template developed by Morris at Environment Canada (2001), containing an Excel macro, was used to determine the return period of any size storm. It is recommended that when climate change scenarios are utilized that more than one GCM results be used to frame the future properly. All GCMs provide a version of the future, based on which emission scenario (SRES) and time frame the researcher is interested in. In this study, the SRES B2 emission scenario was used for the 2 models noted.

5. RESULTS & COMMENTS

The following Tables 1 & 2 provide values of temperature and precipitation change projected at five sites in Newfoundland and Labrador. In Table 1, downscaled values are compared to those taken directly from the GCM grid box for that specific site. As is clearly illustrated, some downscaled values are fairly 26 Climate Change and Renewable Resources in Labrador: Looking toward 2050

similar to the GCM output while some values (especially in the precipitation change projections) are quite different. This is interpreted to mean that the local climatology used to generate the downscale values has a dominating effect on those projections, which is expected when using this form of statistical technique.

One specific example is the precipitation projections for St. John’s, downscaled (SDSM) vs. HadCM3 (Table 2). It is possible that the relatively high change values (~28%) are related to the existence of significant precipitation amounts in the site climatology (probably due to tropical features). This would elevate the values, especially during late summer and autumn, over those projected by the GCM alone.

Table 1 (CGCM2) Annual Projected Change in Downscaled Variables Tmax (°C) Tmin (°C) Pcpn (%) SDSM CGCM2 SDSM CGCM2 SDSM CGCM2 Tri‐decade 20 50 80 20 50 80 20 50 80 20 50 80 20 50 8 20 50 8 0 0 Gander 1.97 2.7 3.9 1.31 1.85 2.6 1.49 2.14 3. 1.97 2.82 3. 3 4 7 2 3 3 7 4 7 09 96 St Johns 0.43 1.3 3.0 0.44 0.86 1.6 1.16 2.0 3. 0.49 0.92 1. 18 22 2 2 ‐3 1 6 2 4 45 72 6 Cartwright 2.25 2.9 4.3 0.84 1.29 2.0 2.04 2.90 4. 1.77 2.62 3. ‐ ‐8 ‐ 1 4 2 2 4 5 16 79 12 5 Goose Bay 2.25 2.9 4.0 1.96 2.73 3.8 1.95 2.78 3. 2.31 3.34 4. 3 6 1 1 3 5 5 1 7 87 83 0 Stephenvill 0.67 1.6 2.8 1.14 1.84 2.7 1.84 2.58 3. 1.93 2.67 3. 12 16 2 ‐1 5 1 e 7 3 5 63 62 0

Table 2 (HadCM3) Annual Projected Change in Downscaled Variables Tmax (°C) Tmin (°C) Pcpn (%) SDSM HadCM3 SDSM HadCM3 SDSM HadCM3 Tri‐ 20 50 80 20 50 80 20 50 80 20 50 80 2 5 8 2 5 8 decade 0 0 0 0 0 0 Gande 1.70 2.4 3.5 1.7 2.4 3.54 1.5 2.1 3.0 1.9 2.7 3.8 8 8 6 4 2 7 r 7 7 1 6 4 2 6 6

St 2.50 3.1 4.8 1.2 1.7 2.51 2.4 3.0 4.5 1.3 1.9 2.7 2 2 2 1 2 5 Johns 6 8 8 3 7 4 5 9 1 1 8 7 8 Cartwr 1.69 2.2 3.2 1.9 2.7 3.7 2.0 2.5 3.5 2.2 2.9 4.0 6 6 6 4 5 1 ight 6 8 0 0 9 3 3 0 4 7 1 Goose 2.18 3.0 4.3 1.6 2.4 3.46 2.1 2.8 4.1 1.8 2.6 3.8 6 5 7 7 7 1 Bay 6 2 3 6 7 6 5 7 9 2 3 Stephe 1.7 2.0 3.6 0.9 0.9 2.06 1.7 2.0 3.6 1.0 1.1 2.2 1 8 9 2 ‐3 3 nville 2 5 0 8 6 1 9 4 9 7 0

27 Climate Change and Renewable Resources in Labrador: Looking toward 2050

In Table 3, values of extreme precipitation amounts (annually for that tridecade) and their return periods are provided. In general, all sites are projected to have heavier 24‐hour extreme amounts by 2050.

By the end of the century most sites are projected to have amounts higher than historical but may not be as high as 2050. Two points need to be made concerning these results; one, these are extreme values for an entire year over a tridecade projected out 100 years and there may be some feature of the downscaling process that weakens at that point and second, these are potential scenarios and not specific forecasts. When comparing the 2 models there are some results that look intuitively more reasonable than others. While there is no objective way to discern which one to favour or choose, if heavy precipitation amounts are a concern then the higher projections may be the better choice.

In Table 4, values for growing season length are provided as examples of what could be available beyond simply temperature and precipitation change values. The trend in temperature is reflected in the upward trend in the number of growing days for most sites.

Table 3 Return Period Projections for Extreme 24‐hour Precipitation Amounts (mm) Return Period 10 Years 50 Years 100 Years

Hist 2020s 2050s 2080s Hist 2020s 2050s 2080s Hist 2020s 2050s 2080s Gander 59.4 65.8 65.5 62.1 72.8 82.8 82.9 76.4 78.5 89.9 90.3 82.5 CGCM2 Gander 59.4 61.7 70.7 81.3 72.8 77.5 89.7 108.8 78.5 84.2 97.7 120.5 HadCM3 St Johns 75.9 113.2 118.5 107.2 92.2 149.2 160.3 134.5 99.1 164.4 178 146 CGCM2 St. Johns 75.9 103.5 139.1 110.8 92.2 128.6 199 147.1 99.1 139.1 224.3 162.4 HadCM3 Cartwright 62.7 44.7 50.5 56.5 80.2 54.6 64.8 74.6 87.6 58.8 70.8 82.3 CGCM2 Cartwright 62.7 56.8 61.6 62.2 80.2 69 78.7 77 87.6 74.9 85.9 83.2 HAdCM3 Goose Bay 59.6 75.1 73 68.1 76.5 98.6 96.7 83.7 83.7 108.6 106.7 90.6 CGCM2 Goose Bay 59.6 46.5 50.8 43.7 76.5 58 64 62.1 83.7 62.8 69.6 67.1 HadCM3 Stephenville 69.8 83.7 86.3 93.8 89.2 106.9 109 121.5 97.3 116.7 118.6 133.2 CGCM2 Stephenville 69.8 73.2 95.6 78.5 89.2 94 132.7 101.8 97.3 102.7 148.2 111.6 HadCM3

28 Climate Change and Renewable Resources in Labrador: Looking toward 2050

Table 4 Growing Season Length (days) Period Hist 2020s 2050s 2080s Gander 170 181.7 192 196.9 CGCM2 Gander 170 170.7 178.3 185.3 HadCM3 St Johns 182 187.6 194.4 218.9 CGCM2 St. Johns 182 210.4 214.2 228.4 HadCM3 Cartwright 135 168.8 167.6 180.9 CGCM2 Cartwright 135 139.3 147.3 159.4 HAdCM3 Goose Bay 138 150.5 157.1 161.3 CGCM2 Goose Bay 138 147.7 168.8 166.8 HadCM3

6. References

Bruce, J.P.,Clark, R.H.,1966. Introduction to Hydrometeorology. Pergamon Press, 146‐149.

Flato, G. M., G. J. Boer, W. G. Lee, N. A. McFarlane, D. Ramsden, M. C. Reader, and A. J. Weaver, (2000): The Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis Global Coupled model and its Climate. Climate Dyn., 16, 451–467.

Goldstein, Jeanna., Parishkura, Dimitri., Gachon, Philippe., and Milton, Jennifer., 2004. Development of Climate Scenarios from Statistical Downscaling Methods. http://www.criacc.qc.ca/projet/ACFAS_May2004.pdf

Gumbel, E.J., 1941. The return period of Flood Flows. Ann. Math. Stat. 12, 163‐90

Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, 2001. Climate Change 2001; The Scientific Basis. IPCC Third Assessment Report. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge UK.

Lines, Gary., Pancura, Mike., Lander Chris, 2005. Building Climate Change Scenarios of Temperature and Precipitation in Atlantic Canada Using the Statistical Downscaling Model (SDSM). Technical Report 2005‐9. Environment Canada Atlantic Region.

29 Climate Change and Renewable Resources in Labrador: Looking toward 2050

Pancura, Mike., Lines, Gary, 2005. Variability and Extremes in Statistically Downscaled Climate Change Projections at Greenwood NS. Technical Report 2005‐10. Environment Canada, Atlantic Region.

Stardex (Statistical and Regional dynamical Downscaling of Extremes for European Regions), 2002. http://www.cru.uea.ac.uk/cru/projects/stardex/

Wilby, R.L., Dawson, C.W. and Barrow, E.M., 2001. SDSM User Manual‐ A Decision Support Tool for the Assessment of Regional Climate Change Impacts. http://www‐ staff.lboro.ac.uk/~cocwd/sdsm.html

Vincent, L.A., 1998. A Technique for the Identification of Inhomogeneities in Canadian Temperature Series. Journal of Climate 11, p1094‐1104.

Climate Change and Forests in Labrador

Martin Moroni ([email protected]), Canadian Forest Service

The effect of expected climate change on disturbance history (fire and insect) and tree species distributions on the forests of Labrador will be discussed. Forest carbon stocks in old growth forests in the vicinity of Goose Bay was presented (distribution of carbon in soil, organic layer, fallen dead wood, dead trees and live trees) and the impact of disturbance history on forest carbon stocks discussed.

30 Climate Change and Renewable Resources in Labrador: Looking toward 2050

Can Trees Climb Mountains? From Tundra to Trees – a Tale of Changing Treeline in the Highlands of Labrador

Luise Hermanutz ([email protected]), Labrador Highlands Research Group, Memorial University

Co‐ Investigators: Paul Marino, John Jacobs, Trevor Bell, Alvin Simms

Post‐doctoral fellow: Keith Lewis

Student Researchers: Marilyn Anions, Zack Bartlett, Sarah Chan, Brittany Cranston, Ryan Jameson, Anne Munier, Jolene Sutton, Liz Sutton, Andrew Trant, Mariana Trindade, Michael Upshall, Julia Wheeler, Chad Yurich, Ngaire Yurich [all are affiliated with Departments of Biology or Geography, or Environmental Science at MUN]

The Labrador Highlands Research Group (LHRG) has been conducting research in Labrador since 2001 on present and past climate, rare plants, disturbance, and the survival and establishment of conifers near the tundra‐forest ecotone. The goal is to understand how climate in Labrador has changed over time, and how this will influence treeline and tundra vegetation dynamics in the Labrador highlands (Mealy Mountains, Red Wine Mountains, and Torngat Mountains). Currently our research is funded by two federal IPY grants (PPSA Canada and CiCAT), with the support of provincial and federal agencies (NL Dept. Environment & Conservation; NL Dept of Natural Resources; Parks Canada Agency; Natural Resources Canada). Ultimately our group will develop models that will predict how the vegetation will change at the treeline and how that will impact the arctic‐alpine tundra regions across Labrador.

Specifically, we seek to 1) correlate environmental and microclimatic data with treeline and tundra change, including vegetation, bird and insect biodiversity; 2) assess the role of ecological processes such as herbivory and disturbance in treeline dynamics, and 3) develop conceptual models for the assessment of environmental change on the forest‐arctic‐alpine ecotone landscape, processes, and resource availability.

In this talk I will focus on the ecological aspects of our research that will form the inputs into the model that will predict the changes to vegetation based on present and future climate change scenarios. Each study is being undertaken by individual students under the supervision of one of the Principal Investigators. Their study objectives and preliminary findings will be reported, and the model will be briefly outlined.

31 Climate Change and Renewable Resources in Labrador: Looking toward 2050

We chose to work in the highland (higher altitude) regions of Labrador rather than the northern (latitudinal) limit of trees because other mountain ranges around the world and in Canada have already recorded treeline change. Mountainous regions such as the Alps (Austria) and the Rockies, as well as Ruby Ranges in the Yukon have recorded the movement of trees upslope over the past 10‐20 years. Therefore we proposed that the highland areas of Labrador would act as “bellwethers” that would be the first areas to show the impacts of climate change because they are most sensitive to change. Studying vegetation change is key to understanding how the habitats of various animals will change into the future, which will allow sustainable long‐term management of our resources. Such knowledge is especially important to wide‐ranging and rare animals such as the Mealy Mountain Caribou. Caribou cows and calves use high elevation alpine areas in the summer to forage for sedges and lichens. Black bears also move up to the high elevations in the fall to forage for berries such as bearberry, blackberry (crowberry) and redberry (partridge berries), that are plentiful in open non‐treed highland habitats. Therefore how future vegetation change will affect these key foraging habitats is necessary to understand how such animals will respond to climate change. In this presentation I will present our research in the Mealy Mountains, and Torngat Mountains.

We know that some of the highland areas were covered with trees in the past (Figure 1). A subfossil tree collected by our group in a lake in the Red Wine Mountains above the present day treeline was dated as being over 4000 years old! But we don’t know anything about how the treeline changed as the climate changed.

Figure 1: Based on Lamb (1985, Ecol. Monographs 55: 241‐56) treeline extended upslope in the past, compared with the present treeline in North‐central Labrador. Mealy Mountains rise to 1000m.

The model (Figure 2) puts all of our ecological experiments in the Mealy Mountains into context; each input will help “inform” the model as to the current baseline. I will describe each in turn, with the exception of the “climate” inputs. The findings of our ecological research will provide knowledge about the Mealy Mountains that is presently unknown.

32 Climate Change and Renewable Resources in Labrador: Looking toward 2050

Preliminary Vegetation Change Model Preliminary Vegetation Change Model

2) Recruitment of Dispersal 1) Seed productivity, Dispersal 1) Seed productivity, 2) RecruitmentTrees & shrubs of Dispersal distance Trees & shrubs Climate Dispersal& Barriers distance Vegetation & Climate & Barriers Vegetation & VegetationHabitat & Habitat HabitatModel

Disturbance Model Disturbance Geographic inputs Geographic inputs Simulated Climate SimulatedChange ParametersClimate 3) Disturbance Type Changefrom climate Parameters models 3) DisturbanceSusceptibility Type from climate models from climate models SusceptibilityIntensity Intensity 4) Topographic Parameters 4) TopographicSoilsParameters SuccessionSoils States SuccessionPresent ClimateStates Present Climate

Figure 2: Vegetation model describing how the inputs from the ecological research will be used to “feed” the model that will predict future vegetation change (model and slide by A. Simms)

KrummholzKrummholz

TreeTree Islands Islands

OpenOpen Canopy Canopy

ClosedClosed Canopy Canopy

Figure 3: Sampling was conducted across the elevational gradient from Closed Canopy Forest to Krummholz (short trees with no upright trunk), and in some cases to the alpine tundra above the treeline.

All sampling was carried out across the elevational gradient described in Figure 3 in Moraine Valley, Mealy Mountains.

33 Climate Change and Renewable Resources in Labrador: Looking toward 2050

1) Seed productivity and dispersal (R. Jameson & K. Lewis):

The movement of the treeline in response to a warming climate may be limited by the availability of seeds from both trees and shrubs. Cone and seed production is tightly cued to heat units and so once we know the present level of seed production, it will be possible to model how seed availability will change as the climate warms. The number of seed produced in turn determines how far seeds can travel (seed shadow) and therefore determines the potential range expansion of trees and shrubs upslope.

Trees and shrubs were sampled across our study valley (Moraine Valley) and cones were sampled to determine if seed viability. Results to date indicate that seeds are being produced but whether they are viable is still under investigation. There is very limited cone production suggesting there is currently a “bottleneck” to the expansion of the treeline.

• 28% of surveyed conifers had at least one generation of ovulate cones present in the closed canopy site, compared to an average of 18% in the open canopy sites • The highest elevation at which cone production was encountered is 764 m • The occurrence of each potential seed sources (tree stands, krummholz, tree islands) was mapped and the cone/seed productivity will determine the strength of the potential seed sources across the landscape • Seed bank, seed rain will be determined

2) Recruitment of tree seedlings (B. Cranston, J. Wheeler, A. Munier)

Experimental plots were established in order to determine the influence of groundcover type (lichen, mosses), disturbance, herbivory, and nurse effects (positive affect of presence of nearby shrubs on seedling growth) on the growth of black spruce seedlings across the elevational gradient. Seeds and seedlings were planted into areas that were experimentally warmed and sheltered from herbivory (Figure 4) and the seedbed disturbed. Germination and growth were monitored. Black spruce can grow and survive over winter above the treeline. Results suggest that temperature and disturbance are important in the recruitment of black spruce and that predation of seeds and seedlings could limit treeline advance. Black spruce growth was the greatest across the elevational gradient compared with other tree species.

• Black spruce does best in the moss seedbed and worst in lichen seedbed • Black spruce seed and seedling herbivory is twice as large in experimentally disturbed sites as compared to plots where the moss/lichen groundcover is intact; groundcover vegetation may be providing a sheltering effect • Black spruce survives best under the canopy of dwarf birch nurse plants, but growth is the lowest compared with other more open treatments, indicating that light is limiting growth • Black spruce seeds germinate and seedlings grow better in the enhanced temperature treatment than without and do even better when planted on disturbed seedbeds • Black spruce germinates and grows better than other tree species (balsam fir and paper birch) in all treatments

34 Climate Change and Renewable Resources in Labrador: Looking toward 2050

Figure 4: Left panel – warming chambers that increased the temperature 1.5‐3 C into which seeds and seedlings were placed to determine affects of elevated temperature; Right panel: herbivore exclosure that kept out vertebrate herbivores to measure impact of herbivores.

3) Role of disturbance in treeline dynamics (A. Trant, M. Trindade)

To determine the role that natural disturbance plays in the dynamics of treeline forests, tree stand history and recruitment patterns are being reconstructed using tree ring data and by describing the scale, frequency, and intensity of different disturbance agents (including fire, insect herbivory, disease, and porcupine herbivory). Stand composition varies across the elevational gradient but black spruce is the most common, with larch, and white spruce being second common with balsam found in lesser amounts. Earlier studies indicate that trees can live well over 250 years, depending on the species. In 2007, over 900 tree cores were taken across the elevational gradient to determine age of recruitment to enable the stands to be reconstructed. Preliminary results suggest low/negligible levels of disturbance from fire and insect herbivory with potentially greater influence associated with climate and porcupine herbivory. In a 2005 study fire scars were found on 4 wide ranging trees, indicating that fire is not an important disturbance at this treeline. Insect disturbance was recorded in larch but again not over a wide area. Compared with other stand level disturbances it appears that disturbances are instead small scale in nature, agents being windthrow, porcupine, and probably disease. Over the years search effort for seedlings has been very high, but with the exception of a few larch seedlings, no other species have produced seedlings (probably due to the lack of viable seed – see section 1). It appears that the saplings within the stands may be generated by layering, enabling the stands to persist for long periods. This suggests that the forests at the treeline have very different dynamics than those at lower elevations and latitudes.

4) Geographical Inputs (imagery, soils) – (Z. Bartlett, L. Sutton, C. Yurich) a) Imagery: Currently students are using historical satellite imagery to compare to recent images to determine if and how vegetation (trees, shrubs) has changed over a 30 year period. This knowledge can be used to measure the degree of habitat and land use change evident.

35 Climate Change and Renewable Resources in Labrador: Looking toward 2050 b) Soils: Are soils above treeline receptive to the establishment of tree species? Studies of soil depth and nutrients undertaken in pilot study done in 2005 indicate that there is sufficient soil to act as appropriate seed beds for trees and shrubs and that there is relatively little change in the soil chemistry across the elevational gradient. In 2007 these soil studies have been expanded using multiple installations of soil nutrient probes (PRS) and soil temperature loggers.

In conclusion, cone and seed productivity appears to be limited at the treeline, suggesting a bottleneck to the expansion of the treeline upslope; however vegetative growth may enable the present forest stands to persist for long time periods. Seeds germinate and seedlings can grow and survive above the present treeline, and shrubs such as dwarf birch act as “nurse’ plants to facilitate growth, but at the same time seedling predation may limit survival in all treatments. Disturbance regimes appear to be small in scale, which is very different than lower elevation/latitudinal forests.

Tundra Studies – in addition to treeline studies our group has been researching the tundra zone in both the Mealy Mountains and in 2007 we started a climate change impacts project in the Torngat Mountains National Park Reserve. We have established experimental warming chambers using CANTTEX/ITEX protocols at both sites. Interestingly the distribution of plant life forms is very similar between the locations (Figure 5). These data are very important as they will enable us to monitor changes in the major plant types (lichen, mosses, herbs and shrubs) over time and the impacts of the warming chambers. As most of these smaller plant forms (lichen, mosses, herbs and small shrubs) are very sensitive to shading, once the taller shrubs and/or trees invade and block the light these shorter plants will die out quickly resulting in a complete change of vegetation. Such sharp changes in the vegetation will have impacts of the distribution and movement of animals.

Counts of plant classes on CANTTEX plots in the Counts of plant classes on CANTTEX plots in the Mealy (2004) and Torngat Mountains (2007), Mealy (2004) and Torngat Mountains (2007), Labrador Labrador 60.0 60.0 50.0 50.0 grass/herb 40.0 grass/herb 40.0 lichen lichen 30.0 moss 30.0 moss 20.0 shrub 20.0 shrub 10.0 10.0 0.0 0.0 t ly tga

Mean Count of plants Count per plotMean a ly ga Mean Count of plants Count per plotMean Mea orn T Me orn T

Figure 5: Comparison of the tundra plant types in the Mealy Mountains and the Torngat Mountains.

36 Climate Change and Renewable Resources in Labrador: Looking toward 2050

Sustaining Nitassinan: Facing Climate Change – An Innu Perspective

Valérie Courtois ([email protected]), Registered Professional Forester, Innu Nation

The cultural and economical foundations of the Innu are inherently tied to ecosystems of Nitassinan. Protecting these systems serves to protect Innu culture, and the uncertain impacts that climate change will have on the land is a concern that must be addressed. Climate change is one issue amongst many social and economic changes that the Innu have been facing, and this compels the question of whether lessons learnt in adapting to such social changes can be useful in developing strategies to adapt to climate change.

The ecosystem‐based management approach used by the Innu reflects the Innu’s connection to the land. It involves forest resource planning that prioritizes the protection of ecosystem values first, then of cultural values, and then of economic values. There is a Protected Area Network within Planning District 19 which further adds to the resilience to the forest base, enhancing the likelihood that ecological integrity can be maintained in the face of significant changes. Recent infestation of the hemlock looper and consequent tree death over large areas of District 19 is one example of a forest stressor that can be influenced by climate change.

The Innu vision for the development of Labrador’s forest industry includes a move away from low‐value commodities to production that meets local needs and is able to compete with imported products. The development of niche markets is a long term goal. Intensive fire and insect management and plantations on the other hand are goals that are ill‐fitted to the ecosystem‐based goals of the Innu. Carbon is not a traditional value in the forest, however given its importance to climate change mitigation, its role in forest management must be further investigated.

37 Climate Change and Renewable Resources in Labrador: Looking toward 2050

Climate change education and capacity building is underway with the Northern Ecosystem Initiative (Environment Canada) and the Labrador Highlands Research Group of Memorial University. This has included the visits by Environmental Guardians to research sites and a climate change module in Kamistasin. Next steps include the development of a climate monitoring protocol for District 19, which will include locally relevant indicators of environmental health.

38 Climate Change and Renewable Resources in Labrador: Looking toward 2050

Status of Caribou Herds in Labrador and Potential Effects of Climate Change

Rebecca Jeffery ([email protected]), Wildlife Division, NL Department of Environment and Conservation

Within Labrador, there are two ecotypes of caribou (Rangifer tarandus tarandus): sedentary and migratory ground. The ecotypes differ in their migratory patterns and in calving behaviour. The sedentary woodland herds remain in the forested southern regions of Labrador throughout the year while the migratory caribou travel thousand of kilometres a year between calving grounds in the north and wintering grounds in the south. Sedentary woodland caribou herds in Canada are considered ‘threatened’ by the Committee on the Status of Endangered Wildlife in Canada (COSEWIC) and are subsequently protected. There are three woodland caribou herds within Labrador: the Red Wine (RWCH), Lac Joseph (LJCH), and the Mealy Mountain (MMCH) caribou herds. Woodland caribou typically move very little, spreading out to calve singly in June. All three herds are found in the southern and central Labrador. Although managed as separate herds, small numbers of woodland have been found beyond the three herd ranges in southern Labrador. The George River herd (GRCH) is migratory, moving throughout Labrador and Quebec on the Ungava Peninsula. Their winter range frequently overlaps with the sedentary woodland herds in the southern winter range. Although similar in many respects, the differences between the life histories and movement patterns of the two ecotypes may mean they react to pressures differently.

The LJCH is the most westerly sedentary‐woodland caribou herd in Labrador. Its current range extends south from the Trans‐Labrador Highway to 50ºN and from 67ºW to 62ºW (Fig.1). The historical range was much larger with caribou extending as far north as the Smallwood Reservoir (Bergerud 1974). More recently however, the majority of activity has been limited to the southern portion of the range. The GRCH winter range has overlapped with the Lac Jo caribou range in the past but not in recent years. The LJCH exhibited a decline in the 1970s, however the most recent survey (2001) estimates the population is approximately 1 100 (Chubbs et al. 2001). Recruitment rates collected since 2000 (Schmelzer et al. 2004; unpublished data) indicate the population is stable and increasing (Bergerud 1980). A portion of the LJCH range is overlapped by the Low‐Level Training Area (LLTA), a Department of National Defence (DND) military jet aircraft training area.

The RWCH is found in central Labrador and is possibly the herd of greatest concern. Historically, the Red Wine mountains were the center of the RWCH range (Brown and Theberge 1985). More recently however, the herd seems to be utilizing the southern portion of the range. This change in use has occurred at the same time as a marked population decline between the 1990s to now. The herd was estimated at approximately 750 animals in 1989 (Veitch 1990) but is now thought to be less than 100 (Chubbs et al. 2001; Phillips pers. com.) 39 Climate Change and Renewable Resources in Labrador: Looking toward 2050

Although recruitment rates seem adequate to sustain the population (Schmelzer et al. 2004, Schaefer et al. 1999), the population has continued to decline. In recent years, the George River caribou winter ranges have overlapped substantially with Red Wine caribou. The majority of the RWCH range falls within the LLTA but there has bee minimal training activity since 2006.

The MMCH is the east most woodland caribou herd in Labrador. The herd is situated south of Groswater Bay extending east as far as the coast and as far south as the border with Quebec (Fig. 1). It has almost no overlap with the George River herd and does not fall within the LLTA. As phase III of the Trans‐ Labrador Highway is being constructed through the Mealy Mountain range, there has been increased research since 2002. The MMCH reached its historic peak of 1500‐2600 animals between the late 1950s and late 60s (Bergerud 1963). It reached its lowest levels in the mid 70s but has increased steadily since then. Recent Recent estimates indicate that the herd has retuned to historic animals, with approximately 2100‐2600 animals in the population (Otto 2002; Jeffery 2005). Recruitment rates are high (Bergerud 1980) indicating that this is a stable or increasing population. Recent work has provided more information about caribou living near the margins of the range. For instance, there is a group of caribou near the Joir River, south west of the Mealy Mountain caribou (Fig. 1). These Joir River caribou were first collared in 2002 but additional collars have been added as part of the ongoing research. The latest estimate for the Joir River caribou is approximately 120 animals (Jeffery 2007). The Joir River caribou range overlaps with the southern portion of the LLTA as well.

The migratory GRCH is the largest herd in Labrador. Its range covers the majority of the Ungava Peninsula, and historically exceeded 700 000 km2. The herd however is now using substantially less area (Couturier et al. 2004). The migration patterns of the GRCH are well known with caribou migrating north to the calving grounds at the end of April and south the wintering grounds in November‐December ((Bergman 1998). The GRCH has undergone dramatic fluctuations in size over the last century. The population was very low at the beginning of the 19th century causing starvation in native communities (Bergman 1998) but had grown to approximately 15 000 by the late 50s (Bergerud 1967). The herd subsequently increased to around 770 000 in the early 1990s (Couturier et al. 1996), making it one of the largest in the world. The population size has decreased since then, with the most recent GRCH estimate around 400 000 animals (Couturier et al. 2004; R. Otto pers. com.).

How all these herds will be impacted by climate change are unknown. We can predict however what the likely effect of a changing climate will be based on what we do know about caribou. Although continued warming trends are predicted in most of the north, Labrador is somewhat different as the Labrador sea is predicted to initially become cooler (J. Jacobs, pers. com.). The subsequent changes to temperature/moisture regimes, and snow/ice extent and condition will surely have great effects on herds in this region. Changes in climate will not only directly affect caribou, but may also cause changes in other populations, ie. parasites or predators, which will affect caribou as well.

40 Climate Change and Renewable Resources in Labrador: Looking toward 2050

Changes in temperatures and moisture could have effects on caribou condition. Increases in temperature and moisture have been found to affect size at birth and parturition date in Soay sheep in Scotland (Forchhammer et al. 2001) and higher temperatures were found to increase high‐energy activity and reduce feeding in Delta herd caribou (Moerschel and

Klein 1997). If insect populations increase with rising temperature and moisture, caribou will spend less time feeding and more time engaged in avoidance activities (Moerschel and Klein 1997; Toupin et al. 1996, Weladji et al. 2003). Warming temperatures in the arctic are already changing parasite life cycles with higher winter larval survival, and faster development in nematodes (Kutz et al. 2005). Populations of intermediate hosts, such as gastropods, may extend their range as temperatures and moisture increase, thereby increasing the current distribution of parasitic infections. Increased temperatures may also cause an increase in forest fires causing loss of terrestrial and arboreal lichens. The resulting reduction in forage availability could affect caribou habitat selection (Joly et al. 2003) particularly for the southern sedentary herds.

Snow depth, hardness, extent, and ice conditions are likely to change with changing climate. Slight increases in winter temperature could mean increased snowfall. Ice and snow depth have been shown to affect caribou movements, as well as forage accessibility in western Labrador (Brown and Theberge 1990). Also unstable and changing ice conditions could lead to unsafe leads or paths for migrating caribou resulting in increased injury or death. Snow depth limits food accessibility in other Rangifer populations as well (Leader‐Williams et al. 1981). Certain snow conditions are favorable for predation. For example, wolf predation on white‐tailed deer has been shown to increase in deep snow conditions (Nelson and Mech 1986). An increase in snow depth will likely affect predation rates on caribou as well.

As the climate changes, plant community distribution and composition will alter as well. Winter warming in the Arctic has been associated with reduced plant growth and reduced reindeer population growth (Aanes et al. 2002). This may be especially important for the GRCH which spends much of the year on the tundra. As arctic plants move farther north, migration patterns will likely change as well as animals move farther to seek out forage (Brotton and Wall 1997).

The effect of climate change on caribou is complex as it affects several aspects of their ecology. Certain effects may have a greater impact on certain portions of the range, meaning the ecotypes may be affected differently, and individual herds may be affected differently. Continued caribou monitoring paired with targeted climate change studies will become increasingly important for understanding how climate change will affect Labrador caribou populations.

41 Climate Change and Renewable Resources in Labrador: Looking toward 2050

Table 1: Possible effects of climate change in Labrador and its impact on sedentary and migratory caribou herds. Effect Direct/ Ecotype Affected Potential Impact of Effect Indirect Temperature/ Direct Both ‐ Earlier parturition Moisture ‐ Selection for cooler areas ‐ Less suitable habitat available →Insects Indirect Both ‐ Increased avoidance behaviour ‐ Decrease in body condition and productivity ‐ Changes in range use →Parasites Indirect Both ‐ Increased larval/egg survival ‐ Increased intermediate host abundance ‐ Decrease in body condition and health →Fire Indirect Both, especially ‐ Loss of habitat, food availability sedentary Snow/Ice Direct Both, especially ‐ Altered movement patterns/migration paths Conditions migratory within winter range ‐ Use of unsafe leads/paths ‐ Changes in forage availability ‐ Loss of suitable habitat ‐ Higher energy use →Predation Indirect Both ‐ Snow/ice conditions favourable for predation ‐ Change in distribution of predators Plant Direct Both ‐ Changes in suitable habitat Distribution/ ‐ Altered movement patters/migration paths Composition ‐ Reduced body condition

References

Aanes, R., Saether, B.‐E., Smith, F.M., Cooper, E.J., Wookey, P.A., Ørisland, N.A. 2002. the Arctic Ascillation predicts effects of climate change in two trophic levels in a high‐arctic ecosystem. Ecology Letters 5: 445‐453.

Bergerud,A.T. 1963. Preliminary report on the caribou herds of Northern and southern Labrador.

Bergerud,A.T. 1967. Management of Labrador caribou. Journal of Wildlife Management 31: 621‐642.

Bergerud,A.T. 1974. Decline of caribou in North America following settlement. The Journal of Wildlife Management 38: 757‐770.

Bergerud,A.T. 1980. A review of the population dynamics of caribou and wild reindeer in North America. In 2nd International Reindeer/Caribou Symposium, Edited by E.Reimers, E.Gaare, and S.Skjenneberg. pp. 556‐581.

42 Climate Change and Renewable Resources in Labrador: Looking toward 2050

Bergman,C. 1998. George River Caribou monitoring in Labrador: Knowledge as the basis of sustainable development. Final Progress Report ‐Year 2. Department of Forest Resources & Agrifoods, Inland Fish and Wildlife DIvision.

Brotton, J., and Wall, G. 1997. Climate change and the Bathurst Caribou Herd in the Northwest Territories, Canada. Climatic Change 35: 35‐52.

Brown,W.K. and Theberge,J.B. 1985. The calving distribution and calving fidelity of a woodland caribou herd in central Labrador. Proceedings of the 2nd North American Caribou Workshop, McGill Subarctic Research Paper 40: 57‐67, McGill University, Montreal.

Brown,W.K. and Theberge,J.B. 1990. The effect of extreme snowcover on feeding‐site selection by woodland caribou. Journal of Wildlife Management 54: 161‐168.

Brown,W.K. and Theberge,J.B. 1985. The calving distribution and calving fidelity of a woodland caribou herd in central Labrador. Center for Northern Studies & Research, 40.

Chubbs, T.C., Jung, T.S., Otto, R.P., Jones, C., and Phillips, F.R. 2001. Population status and distribution of two Woodland Caribou herds in Labrador. 9th North American Caribou Workshop, April 23‐27, Kuujjuaq, Québec. Canada.

Couturier,S., Courtois,R., Crepeau,H., Rivest,L.‐P., and Luttich,S. 1996. Calving photocensus of the Riviere George Caribou Herd and comparison with an independent census. Rangifer 283‐296.

Couturier, S., Jean, D., Otto, R. and Rivard, S. 2004. Demography of the migratory tundra caribou (Rangifer tarandus) of the Nord‐du‐Québec region and Labrador. Ministère des Ressources naturelles, de la Faune et des Parcs, Direction de l’aménagement de la faune du Nord‐du‐ Québec and Direction de la recherche sur la faune. Québec. 68 p.

Forchhammer, M.D., Clutton‐Brock, T.H., Lindström, J., and Albon, S.D. 2001 Climate and population density induce long‐term cohort variation in a northern ungulate Journal of Animal Ecology 70(5): 721–729.

Jeffery, R. 2005. Mealy Mountain Caribou Herd ‐ Collaring and Population Size, 2005. Wildlife Divison, Government of Newfoundland and Labrador, Internal Report.

Jeffery, R. 2007. Joir River Woodland Caribou Project Report, 2006‐2007. Wildlife Divison, Government of Newfoundland and Labrador, Internal Report.

Joly, K., Dale, B.W., Collins, W.B., and Adams, L.G. 2003. Winter habitat use by female caribou in relation to wildland fires in interior Alaska. Can. J. Zool. 81(7): 1192–1201.

Klein, D.R. 1982. Fire, lichens, and caribou. Journal of Range Management 35(3): 390‐395.

Kutz, S.J., Hoberg, E.P., Polley, L., and Jenkins, E.J. 2005. Global warming is changing the dynamics of Arctic host–parasite systems. Proc Biol Sci. 272(1581): 2571–2576.

Leader‐Williams, N., Scott, T.A., Pratt, R.M. 1981. Forage Selection by Introduced Reindeer on South Georgia, and Its Consequences for the Flora. The Journal of Applied Ecology 18(1): 83‐106.

43 Climate Change and Renewable Resources in Labrador: Looking toward 2050

Moerschel, F.M., and Klein, D.R. 1997. Effects of weather and parasitic insects on behavior and group dynamics of caribou of the Delta Herd, Alaska. Canadian Journal of Zoology 75(10): 1659‐1670.

Nelson, M.E., and Mech, D. 1986. Relationship between Snow Depth and Gray Wolf Predation on White‐ Tailed Deer. Journal of Wildlife Management 50(3): 471‐474.

Otto,R. 2002. Density distribution survey and population estimate: Mealy Mountain Caribou Herd, 2002. Department of Works, Services, and Transportation, Wildlife Science and Research Division, and Innu Nation.

Schaefer,J.A., Veitch,A.M., Harrington,F.H., Brown,W.K., Theberge,J.B., and Luttich,S.N. 1999. Demography of decline of the Red Wine Mountains caribou herd. Journal of Wildlife Management 63: 580‐587.

Schmelzer, I. & Brazil, J, Chubbs, T., French, S., Hearn, B., Jeffery, R., LeDrew, L., Martin, H., McNeill, A., Nuna, R., Otto, R., Phillips, F., Mitchell, G, Pittman, G., Simon, N., Yetman, G. 2004. Recovery strategy for three Woodland caribou herds (Rangifer tarandus caribou;Boreal population) in Labrador. Department of Environment and Conservation, Government of Newfoundland and Labrador, Corner Brook.

Toupin, B., Huot, J., and Manseau, M. 1996. Effect of Insect Harassment on the Behaviour of the Rivière George Caribou. Arctic 49(4): 375‐382.

Veitch,A.M. 1990. Populations dynamics of the Red Wine Mountains Caribou, Labrador. The University of Minnesota, pp. 1‐92.

Weladji, R.B., Holand, Ø, Almøy, T. 2003. Use of climatic data to assess the effect of insect harassment on the autumn weight of reindeer (Rangifer tarandus) calves. J. Zool., Lond. 260:79‐85.

44 Climate Change and Renewable Resources in Labrador: Looking toward 2050

Climate Change and Seals: A Labrador Perspective with a Focus on the Importance of Sea Ice

Becky Sjare (sjareb@dfo‐mpo.gc), Department of Fisheries and Oceans, Northwest Atlantic Fisheries Centre

There are numerous ecological predictions arising from recent climate change modeling research that will impact marine mammals in Arctic, sub‐Arctic and boreal marine environments. Some of the general predictions include increases in air and sea temperatures, an increase in sea level, a decrease in the extent, concentration and thickness of sea ice, changes in ocean circulation patterns, an increase in storm frequency and severity and changes in annual/decadal high atmospheric weather systems (Tynan and DeMaster 1997; ACIA 2005). The objectives of this presentation are to provide the following: 1) a brief summary of the direct and indirect affects these predictions will likely have on marine mammals, 2) an overview of the key life‐history characteristics that increase the vulnerability of marine mammals, particularly seals, to climate change, 3) an examination of the potential impacts on seals, particularly ringed seals, from a Labrador perspective, and 4) a discussion on the possible implications these impacts may have for resource users as we look towards 2050.

Direct impacts of climate change on marine mammals in seasonally ice covered marine environments are primarily related to the loss of ice‐associated habitat that could decrease pup/calf survival and foraging efficiency, disrupt mating, moulting and resting behavior, and increase the susceptibility of a species to predation (Tynan and DeMaster 1997; Ainley et al. 2003; Learmonth et al. 2006). Indirect effects on a species are often linked to changes in the distribution, abundance and availability of preferred prey and are usually mediated through large‐scale productivity changes in the marine environment (Tynan and DeMaster 1997; ACIA 2005). Changes in the nutritional status and condition of marine mammals, particularly in the case of seals, affects growth rate and productivity both at the level of the individual and the population and often triggers changes in the species distribution and timing of migration (Boyd 1991).

There are six species of seals plus the walrus inhabiting Labrador waters; some are residents while others are seasonal or occasional visitors. Each exhibits life‐history characteristics that determine their over‐all vulnerability to climate change as well as their ability to adapt to a changing marine environment. Those species that have specific ice‐associated habitat requirements for the birth and rearing of a pup, mating, moulting and for resting are thought to be the most vulnerable to climate related changes in sea ice conditions (Table 1). In addition, those seal species that prey extensively on key‐stone pelagic fish species and zooplankton that are linked to ice‐associated ocean productivity are also thought to be indirectly more vulnerable to changes in sea ice conditions (Table 1). Conversely, for those species where sea ice limits or restricts access to potentially suitable over‐wintering areas, foraging areas or other seasonally required habitats, less severe conditions could be a benefit and facilitate an expansion in range and/or change in migratory behaviour to take advantage of new habitat opportunities.

45 Climate Change and Renewable Resources in Labrador: Looking toward 2050

Table 1. Potential vulnerabilities of Labrador seal species to climate related changes in ice conditions based on key life‐history characteristics (adapted from Tynan & Demaster 1997; ACIA 2005)

Pupping Mating Moulting Diet and Potential Habitat Behavior Resting Ice/Ocean Impact (nursing Behaviour Productivity Evaluation period)

Ringed stable ice ice ice tight negative

(6 wks) required exclusively linkage (certainly)

Bearded pack ice ice ice moderate negative

(18 days) associated primarily linkage (very likely)

Harp pack ice ice ice tight negative

(13 days) associated exclusively linkage (likely)

Hood pack ice Ice ice weaker negative

(4 days) required primarily linkage (likely)

Grey pack ice ice or land ice or land moderate linkage Mostly positive

or land (likely)

(17 days)

Harbour Land open coastal land weaker linkage positive waters (primarily) (5 weeks) (likely)

Walrus pack ice ice ice and land moderate linkage negative (very (1.5 mo) likely) required

* provides an indication of the minimum length of time a stable ice platform is required, most species need at least an additional two weeks for the pup to learn to swim proficiently

46 Climate Change and Renewable Resources in Labrador: Looking toward 2050

Ringed seals are generally considered to be the species most vulnerable to climate related changes in sea ice because they require land‐fast ice or relatively stable pack ice with appropriate snow conditions to over‐winter, pup and mate and because their diet is strongly linked to ice‐enhanced ocean productivity. At the other end of the spectrum, some grey and harbour seal populations will likely increase and extend their range northward into sub‐Arctic regions as seasonal access to new habitat occurs. For the other seal species and the walrus, the impacts of climate change are likely to be negative but will depend on the size and structure of the population in question, the type of ice they require on an annual basis, and the geographic location where key activities such as pupping and feeding occur. In the case of the southern breeding component of the Northwest Atlantic harp seal population, the impacts are very likely to be negative as the frequency of poor ice years in the southern Gulf of St. Lawrence increases and leads to higher pup mortality and perhaps an eventual decline of pupping activity in the region. However, females are capable of giving birth in more northern areas, and at the same time, changing ice and oceanographic conditions in the harp seal’s Arctic feeding area during the summer and early fall may allow the northward expansion of capelin and other preferred, high energy prey species. Therefore, the over‐all level of impact for the population in the medium and longer‐term is difficult to predict with current data. The situation is similar for hooded seals given that they are also a highly migratory species that pups in the southern Gulf of St. Lawrence and in more northern areas off the coast of Labrador and in Davis Strait. The impact of change on bearded seals and walruses is likely to be negative because both species are shallow water benthic feeders that use ice floes as mobile feeding and resting platforms. Early, fast spring break‐up of pack‐ice habitats will likely limit access to feeding areas for these species and eventually limit the habitat available for pupping. Although these evaluations are based on a compilation of research findings on each species throughout their distribution, they are thought to reasonably reflect what will likely occur for those populations frequenting Newfoundland and Labrador waters. However, it is very important to emphasize that there is still uncertainty associated with the degree and rate of climate change on a regional basis and that these changes will be non‐uniform over large geographic areas (Tynan and DeMaster 1997). This is particularly true when considering the potential impacts on seals.

The ringed seal is a key‐stone species of ice‐covered Arctic marine ecosystems because it links the aquatic food web to higher level predators such as polar bears, Arctic fox, wolves and ravens. In addition, seals are an important country food for northern communities and they are also culturally significant. Although the species is well studied in some areas of its range, there are major data gaps in other geographic regions. Despite this problem there is growing evidence that climate change and/or variability is negatively impacting the species in some parts of its range. In the Beaufort Sea during the winter of 1973‐74, heavier than normal pack ice conditions coincided with subsequent declines of ringed seals and polar bears the following year (Stirling et al. 1977; Stirling and Lunn 1997). It was thought that a reduction in the availability of leads and open water areas along the landfast/pack ice interface contributed to the declines. This heavy ice scenario occurred again in the Beaufort Sea from 1982‐1985 with similar results except that seals present in the area were also in poor condition (Harwood and Stirling1992). The authors speculated that a regional reduction in marine productivity and lack of prey availability contributed to the decline in condition. Conversely, an early spring break‐up of Beaufort ice in 1998 enhanced general marine productivity and prey availability, but the event still had a significant negative affect on the growth, condition and survival of the pups that were not fully weaned at the time. These animals were forced into the water too early and experienced a truncated nursing period, resulting in slower growth and higher mortality (Smith and Harwood 2001). There is also mounting

47 Climate Change and Renewable Resources in Labrador: Looking toward 2050 evidence that early collapse of lairs from rain or warm temperatures can expose pups to high levels of predation by polar bears and foxes (Stirling and Derocher 1993; Figure 1).

A more recent study examining the impacts of climate change on ringed seals in western Hudson Bay showed that pup recruitment into the population varied from lower than average in the 1970s and 1990s to higher than average in the 1980s. Prior to 1990, this pattern of recruitment generally reflected snowfall but was most strongly correlated with spring break‐up times. However, during the 1990s, snowfall, snow depth and April/May air temperatures were more important factors. (Ferguson et al. 2005). Snow depths below 32 cm corresponded with a significant decrease in seal recruitment. The current trends of earlier spring break‐up of sea ice and declining snowfall and snow depth suggests continued low pup survival in the future for western Hudson Bay (Ferguson et al. 2005).

a) b)

Figure 1. a) Collapsed ringed seal pup lair near Nain that illustrates the effect of inadequate snowfall during March. b) Ringed seal pup in the breathing hole of a collapsed lair after a March rain event. In cases such as these, survival is unlikely due to cold temperatures and predation.

Ringed seals in Labrador have not been well studied and there are few specific data sets that can be used to quantitatively evaluate and predict the impact of climate change on the population. However, there is a wealth of traditional knowledge and several new studies are ongoing. Although a very limited number of small scale aerial surveys have been conducted in coastal Labrador over the last 20 years, there is no population estimate for ringed seals and therefore no data on long‐term trends. In the late 1970s a reconnaissance survey documented ringed seal densities in both land and pack ice in coastal Labrador (Boles et al. 1980). There were 2.44 seals/km observed along the north coast and 1.51 seals/km along the central coast; these data were comparable to densities reported for the Baffin Island area at the time. A long‐term perspective on the location of productive seasonal habitats, migration patterns and resource use by communities has been documented based on traditional knowledge by Brice‐Bennett (1977) in ‘Our Footprints are Everywhere’. More recent information provided by hunters (n=12) from Nain, Hopedale and Makkovik who have been long‐time participants in a DFO biological seal sampling program in Labrador suggested that between 1980 ‐1996 there was little noticeable change in the relative abundance of ringed seals, that they had remained in generally good condition and that they were observed in almost all months of the year (it is noteworthy that these findings were not the same

48 Climate Change and Renewable Resources in Labrador: Looking toward 2050 for harp and bearded seals). Some felt that there may have been an increase in numbers after the ban on harp seal pelts in the early 1980s, but changes were though to be relatively local and not related to climate or ice. Information on overwintering areas, the importance of the flow‐edge habitat and key pupping areas during this time period was consistent with Brice‐Bennett (1977). However, since that time there have been reports of declines in the abundance/availability of pups as well as decreased access to pups during the spring hunt due to poor ice conditions. There are also fewer observations of older seals in coastal waters at other times of the year. Hunters from the Lake Melville area have also experienced increased difficulty hunting pups due to poor ice conditions; however, unlike the coast of Labrador, there have been no reports of declining seal numbers in recent years.

In 2001, the Department of Fisheries and Oceans initiated a study to examine changing landfast ice conditions on the availability of pupping habitat along the central and north coast of Labrador and eastern Lake Melville. Hunters (and other interested community members) from Rigolet, Hopedale and Nain collected and assisted in the analysis and interpretation of sea ice habitat data as well as provided observations and biological samples to determine whether the diet, reproductive status and general body condition of ringed seals has varied with changing ice conditions. Information on landfast ice and snow conditions was be obtained by ‘on ice’ teams of hunters from each community and from RADARSAT satellite imagery. The two sources of data complimented each other and ensured that both traditional knowledge and western science were integrated into the project so that the team could begin developing a new sea ice monitoring approach. The major objective of this study was to document the ecological linkages between ringed seal productivity and changing landfast ice conditions in coastal Labrador. Then, based on this knowledge, evaluate the adaptive capacity of the species to both climate variability/change and anthropogenic changes in the ice‐covered marine environment. The project compliments ongoing DFO research on long‐term changes in ringed seal diets and reproductive status, ongoing research supported by Voisey’s Bay Nickel on the ecological effects of shipping during winter months, and the new phase of the Nunatisavut Nuluak project. Presently, data analyses and manuscript preparation are ongoing; however, some preliminary results and insights are important for this conference to consider.

The availability of good quality overwintering and pupping habitat in the landfast ice environment of coastal Labrador from 2001 ‐ 2007 was determined by the following ecological factors: 1) lack of snow accumulation and adequate drift development on the ice, 2) unsuitable ice roughness (both the lack of rough ice and intrusions of continuous rubble fields were a problem), 3) thin, soft ice contributing to an early spring break up, 5) unseasonably warm temperatures in late March and April causing lairs to collapse, 6) spring rain events, and 7) intense spring storm surges that loosen and disperse the pack ice allowing an early break‐up of the land fast ice. In most years of the study one of these factors, or a combination of the several, likely contributed to the decreases in the abundance of pups and younger seals reported by hunters along the central and north coasts of Labrador (Table 2).

49 Climate Change and Renewable Resources in Labrador: Looking toward 2050

The ice conditions from 2004 – 2006 in the Nain area provide a good example of the annual extremes observed during the study and how the amount of suitable pupping habitat varied (Table 3; Figure 2). In 2004, the study area was characterized by a significant intrusion of first year pack ice near Humby and Sandy Island as well as large consolidated rubble fields of landfast ice pushed into the inner coastal islands. Large areas were designated marginal habitat because of only moderate snow fall and evidence of an extremely active ice platform late into the freeze‐up period. In 2005, the pack ice edge was to the west of the study site and there was also a marked reduction in the area covered by rubble fields. Higher snow fall accumulation along with good drift size and some defined pressure ridge development contributed to an increase in the availability of quality habitat. However, April storms caused an early break‐up resulting in the loss of large areas of suitable habitat along the central and north coast before some pups were weaned. In 2006, pack‐ice was pushed well into the study site and a thin, almost continuous, sheet of landfast ice with little snow cover extended to the edge of the pack ice (Figure 2). There did not appear to be any primary or secondary pupping habitat anywhere; marginal habitat may have existed along the landfast/pack ice edge and along the shorelines of some islands. As yet, it is uncertain where ringed seals pup in years when there is very little suitable habitat. There has been no evidence of a large movement of breeding seals deeper into the bays in recent years. This suggests that they move into areas of relatively stable pack ice in more off shore areas (when that habitat exists). Both possibilities require further research. The criteria used to define suitable habitat will be further refined based on available satellite data and traditional knowledge.

Table 2. Summary of ecological factors affecting the suitability of landfast ice conditions for pupping from 2001‐2007. A preliminary evaluation of the relative abundance (i.e. availability) of pups and whether they were accessible due to ice conditions during the spring hunt is also provided.

Evaluation of Availability and Year Key Ecological Access of Pups to Comments Factor(s) Affecting Ice Hunters Suitability

2001 inadequate snow cover Limited availability numerous reports of dead pups on the but good access ice; evidence of predation

2002 generally suitable ice good availability but higher than average snow fall so pups conditions; excellent limited access not visible until late May – too late for snow conditions travel in warm temps; limited availability after spring break‐up

2003 unseasonably warm limited availability limited availability after spring break‐ spring; early melt and access difficult up as well

50 Climate Change and Renewable Resources in Labrador: Looking toward 2050

2004 excessive amount of limited availability no evidence that seals pupped deeper rough, rafted ice and access difficult in bays; suggests use of pack ice

2205 early break‐up due to limited availability ice conditions were suitable for intense spring storms and access in areas pupping and winter temperatures along coast affected by storm seasonal but lack of protective band of pack ice during high seas appeared to be important in spring

2006 inadequate amount of limited availability evidence of collapsed lairs and high pup rough ice; early spring and access mortality along coast; evidence of lair break‐up linked with collapses in March on Lake Melville; warm winter temp. and pups born on the ice; evidence of high rain in March predation along coast and on the Lake

2007 inadequate amount of limited availability of thin ice hampered travel and data rough ice; pups and restricted collection in some areas of the study access

51 Climate Change and Renewable Resources in Labrador: Looking toward 2050

Table 3. Summary of available pupping habitat in the Nain area from 2004‐2006

Habitat Type 2004 (% area ) 2005 (%area) 2006 (% area)

Primary &

Secondary 14km2 (2.3) 80km2 (13.1)

Marginal 367km2 (60.3) 397km2 (65.2)

Not Suitable 301km2 (49.4)

Western Bays 136km2 (22.3) 132km2 (21.7) 130km2 (21.3)

Pack Ice 92km2 (15.1) 178km2 (29.3)

Total Area 609km2 609km2 609km2

None of the hunters participating in the ice monitoring and biological sampling program (~12 experienced hunters) could recall such an extended period of poor spring ice conditions accompanied by such unpredictable and unusual weather patterns. Nor could they recall a period when travel for spring seal hunting had been so restricted and difficult. Until all the ice/snow data and satellite imagery have be fully analyzed and quantitatively compared to the available historic data bases on spring temperatures, snowfall, ice conditions and transition season storm frequencies, it is difficult to evaluate how anomalous the last 7 years have been compared to annual and decadal trends. However, based on the observations and data collected during this study and on the traditional knowledge of experienced hunters, it appeared that late winter and spring landfast ice conditions negatively impacted the availability of seals along the central and north Labrador coast and that the access of seals to hunters in these areas and on Lake Melville had also been also been negatively impacted. If the climate related ecological factors contributing to these changes are indicative of future conditions, then it is likely there will be further changes in the distribution, abundance and habitat use as well as continued problems for hunters to gain access to seals during the spring ice hunt.

Changing patterns of abundance/availability or large‐scale changes in distribution of ringed seals have several important ramifications for resource users (note that some of the following comments can also apply to other species).

52 Climate Change and Renewable Resources in Labrador: Looking toward 2050

There may be an increased need for monitoring the status of the harvest population (including habitat use, reproduction, body condition and predation) as well as a need to modify hunting practices and improve community resource sharing during bad ice years when seal availability is low. It might be possible to build some of these requirements into the ongoing Nunatsiavut Harvest Study. There also needs to be some recognition that species of marine mammals that are now considered ‘occasional visitors’ may increase their presence and create the need for new or revised hunting practices, research and monitoring requirements, co‐management initiatives and conservation guidelines. For example, as winter and spring ice conditions become less severe and higher numbers of harbour and grey seals move into river and estuarine habitats, there may be an increase in seal/salmonid fisheries interactions. Similarly, significant changes (either positive or negative) in the abundance and distribution of polar bears, beluga whales and walruses in coastal Labrador would trigger a broad range of species specific resource use issues requiring attention. During extreme ice years there will be an increasing need to modify hunting practices and develop safe travel plans that can be activated as required. Coupled with changing sea ice conditions there will likely be an increase in the frequency of ship traffic, increased coastal industry and improved tourism opportunities. All will have varying degrees of direct and indirect impacts on the status of marine mammal populations and their availability for resource users.

The changes observed in the distribution, availability and access of ringed seals to hunters and communities in this project had an immediate effect on the time, safety and cost of travel to hunt. These data corroborate some of the general findings noted by Furgal et al. (2002) as well as provide an operational example that could be used to quantify the degree of impact and rate of change facing resource users in the future. Resource users from Beaufort Sea communities like Sachs Harbour on Banks Island have been facing a similar suite of problems and have developed a set of coping responses that will hopefully develop into longer‐term adaptation and mitigation strategies (e.g. Jolly et al. 2002). The generalized coping responses include the following considerations: 1) fine tune and adjust time of harvest, 2) change the location of harvest, 3) adjust how harvesting is conducted, 4) adjust the mix of species harvested, and 5) minimize the risk and uncertainty of harvest with the focus on safe travel, improved monitoring of hunted species and developing ‘new expertise’ and ‘new ways of knowing’ to keep pace with the changing marine environment.

53 Climate Change and Renewable Resources in Labrador: Looking toward 2050

Figure 2. RADARSAT image illustrating the severe landfast ice conditions for ringed seal in the Nain area during 2006. Smooth landfast ice with little snow cover (black/grey in color) stretches to the edge of the pack ice (white in color).

Acknowledgments

Much appreciated funding to study the impacts of changing landfast sea ice conditions on ringed seals in Labrador was provided by the Northern Ecosystem Initiative Program, Environment Canada and by the Earth Observation Program, Canadian Space Agency. I would also like to thank the community members participating in the project as well as the Nunatsiavut Government, Labrador Area DFO personnel, the Canadian Ice Centre and Memorial University, Department of Geography. D. Wakeham, D. McKinnon, W. Penney and B. Stockwood provided valuable expertise in the field and in the lab.

References

ACIA. 2005. Arctic Climate Impact Assessment. Cambridge University Press, 1042p.

54 Climate Change and Renewable Resources in Labrador: Looking toward 2050

AINLEY, D.G., TYNAN, C.T., and STIRLING, I. 2003. Sea ice: A critical habitat for polar marine mammals and birds. In: Thomas, D.N., and Dieckmann, G.S., ed. Sea Ice, An Introduction to its Physics, Chemistry, Biology, and Geology. Oxford: Blackwell Science. 240‐266.

BRICE‐BENNETT, C. 1977. Our Footprints are Everywhere: Inuit Land use and Occupancy in Labrador. Labrador Inuit Association. Dollco Printing Ltd. 381 p.

BOYD, I.L. 1991. Environmental and physiological factors controlling the reproductive cycles of pinnipeds. Canadian Journal of Zoology 69: 1135‐1148.

FERGUSON, S.H., STIRLING, I., and MCLOUGHLIN, P. 2005. Climate change and ringed seal (Phoca hispida) recruitment in western Hudson Bay. Marine Mammal Science 21: 121‐135.

FURGAL, C., MARTIN, D. and GOSSELIN, P. 2002. Climate Change and Health in Nunavik and Labrador: Lessons from Inuit Knowledge. In: Krupnik, I., and Jolly, D., ed. The Earth is Faster Now: Indigenous Observations of Arctic Environmental Change. 266‐299.

HARWOOD, L.A. and STIRLING, I. 1992. Distribution of ringed seals in the southeastern Beaufort Sea during late summer. Canadian Journal of Zoology 70: 891‐900.

JOLLY, D., BERKES, F., CASTLEDEN, J., NICHOLS, T., and the COMMUNITY OF SACHS HARBOUR. We can’t predict the weather like we used to: Inuvialuit Observations of Climate Change, Sachs Harbour, Western Canadian Arctic. In: Krupnik, I., and Jolly, D., ed. The Earth is Faster Now: Indigenous Observations of Arctic Environmental Change. 93 ‐125.

LEARMONTH, J.A., MACLEOD, C.D., SANTOS, M.B., PIERCE, G.J., CRICK, H.Q.P., and ROBINSON, R.A. 2006. Potential effects of climate change on marine mammals. Oceanography and Marine Biology: An Annual Review 44: 431‐464.

SMITH, T.G. and HARWOOD, L.A. 2001. Observations of neonate ringed seals, Phoca hispida, after early break‐up of the sea ice in Prince Albert Sound, Northwest Territories, Canada, spring 1998. Polar Biology 24: 215‐219.

STIRLING, I. ARCHIBALD, W.R., and DEMASTER, D. 1977. Distribution and abundance of seals in the eastern Beaufort Sea. Journal of the Fisheries Research Board of Canada 34: 976‐988.

STIRLING, I. and DEROCHER, A.E. 1993. Possible impacts of climatic warming on polar bears. Arctic 46: 240‐245.

STIRLING, I., and LUNN, N.J. 1997. Environmental fluctuations in arctic marine ecosystems as reflected by variability in reproduction of polar bears and ringed seals. In: Woodin, S.J. and Marquiss, M., ed. Ecology of Arctic Environments. Oxford: Blackwell Science. 167‐181.

TYNAN, C.T. and DEMASTER, D.P. 1997. Observations and predictions of Arctic climatic change: Potential effects on marine mammals. Arctic 50:308‐322.

55 Climate Change and Renewable Resources in Labrador: Looking toward 2050

Planet Ocean ‐ Using Seabirds to Assay Climate Change – Implications for Labrador

Chantelle Burke ([email protected]), Memorial University, Cognitive and Behavioural Ecology Program

The location and persistence of coastal settlements in Labrador are determined primarily by the availability, abundance and predictability of marine resources (McGhee and Tuck 1975). Climate change will precipitate major shifts in the availability and predictability of marine resources in polar regions that will affect the harvesting practices of northern and indigenous communities throughout Labrador. Model scenarios and empirical data suggest that climate change will be felt earliest and strongest at high‐latitude environments (Brown 1991; Boyd and Diamond 1994; Boyd and Madsen 1997) and consequently northern communities will be the first to experience the effects of climate change. These environmental transitions will present extreme challenges to northern communities but opportunities can also arise through proper planning for future adaptation using physical and biological indicators of ocean‐climate variability. International Polar Year science is making substantial efforts to understand and predict the necessary adaptation that will be required.

Our International Polar Year project uses seabirds to detect climate‐induced biological changes occurring at lower trophic levels and across a range of temporal and spatial scales. Biological data tend to fluctuate less over annual and decadal time scales than physical data that have a tendency to produce highly erratic signals that are confusing over shorter time scales (Montevecchi 2007). Seabirds that are relatively easy to study due to their conspicuousness and accessibility provide timely and accurate information on the ecological consequences of climate changes that are not as easily or rapidly observed with other marine organisms. The responses of these top predators integrate changes in the food webs that they exploit and hence reflect encompassing patterns of oceanographic variability and forcing that are relevant to the proper management of marine resources in Newfoundland and Labrador.

We are conducting simultaneous research in Nunavut and in the Low Arctic waters off Newfoundland and Labrador that is integrated through the Labrador Current thereby providing a ‘downstream’ link to evaluate influences of Arctic climate at lower latitudes (Figure 1). The Labrador Current is the dominating oceanographic feature of the Northwest Atlantic and has profound and far reaching effects on both the marine and terrestrial systems throughout its range (Figure 2).

56 Climate Change and Renewable Resources in Labrador: Looking toward 2050

Seabirds are studied at colonies in the eastern Canadian Arctic that experience extremes in Arctic summer temperatures (highest at Coats Island and lowest at Prince Leopold Island; Gaston et al 2003) and at colonies in Newfoundland and Labrador at the southern extremes of Arctic species’ ranges (e.g. Thick‐billed Murres). Studies of foraging behaviour and ranges around breeding colonies during summer are integrated with ocean‐basin scale studies during migration and throughout the winter. Ongoing studies of the movement ecology of murres, shearwaters and gannets directly link High and Low Arctic regions. For example, Thick‐billed Murres that breed in Hudsons Bay and in the High Arctic migrate with the southward flowing Labrador Current and spend the winter on the Labrador and Newfoundland coasts and on the Grand Bank.

57 Climate Change and Renewable Resources in Labrador: Looking toward 2050

Figure 2. The oceanography of the North Atlantic showing the Labrador Current as the lowest penetration of Arctic water.

Changes to ocean temperatures and currents influence the distribution and migration patterns of forage species that sustain large vertebrate marine food webs and influence growth rates and recruitment of important commercial species (e.g. cod and seals). Capelin is the major forage fish in the Northwest Atlantic, but since the early 1990s following an unprecedented cold‐water event, capelin have exhibited profound changes in their behaviour and biology (Carscadden and Nakashima 1997; Carscadden et al. 2002; Mowbray 2002) including a southward shift in distribution away from southern Labrador during the 1990s (Frank et al. 1996). This has been linked to drastic reductions of Atlantic cod Gadus morhua (Myers et al. 1997) that have continued to decline significantly and are showing few signs of recovery despite the closure of the eastern Canadian ground‐fishery in 1992 (Hutchings 2000) that resulted in socioeconomic upheaval in rural communities throughout Newfoundland and Labrador. This project explores the biological consequences of climate induced changes in horizontal and vertical distributions of capelin and other forage species on the behaviour and energetics of seabird predators. Common Murres in Newfoundland specialize on capelin during breeding (Burke and Montevecchi 2008) and information from dive depth recorders show that murre frequently dive into the CIL (at depths > 50 m; Figure 3) to access predictable patches of slow‐moving capelin (Hedd et al. 2008).

58 Climate Change and Renewable Resources in Labrador: Looking toward 2050

Figure 3: Diving by common murres at different times of day during chick‐rearing, July 2007: (A) all dives, n = 1,313, (B) deep (> 50 m) dives, n=272.

This project makes use of pre‐existing long‐term data on marine bird diets from colonies throughout the Eastern Arctic and the Labrador Current to that allows us to assess climate driven, biological effects on forage species over the scale of decades, rather than years. For example, earlier ice break up in Hudson Bay has led to dietary shifts for Thick‐billed Murres where ice‐ associated arctic cod has been replaced by capelin that have undergone a recent northward range expansion and now occur within Hudson Bay (Figure 4; Gaston et al 2003). A research vessel travelling to the Hudson Bay in 2008 will quantify distributional and density patterns of seabirds and forage species and throughout the Labrador Current.

59 Climate Change and Renewable Resources in Labrador: Looking toward 2050

70.0 Dominated by Arctic Cod Fluctuating phase Dominated by Capelin

60.0

50.0

40.0

30.0 of

20.0 oportion (%) diet nestling Pr 10.0

0.0 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005

%Arctic Cod %Capelin

Figure 4. Time series data for Thick‐billed Murres at Coats Island in Hudson Bay (1984 – 2007)

These studies are enabling us to evaluate influences of High Arctic climate variation and change on marine food webs and ecosystem processes in the Northwest Atlantic. Importantly, the Grand Banks of Newfoundland and Labrador provide wintering grounds for millions of Canadian and international Arctic and Antarctic breeding seabird species. Our research will provide insights into the influences of physical oceanography on seabirds and more generally on marine animals and dynamic ecosystem processes. Our goals are to promote comprehensive understanding, wise use and conservation of the ocean ecosystems that sustain us.

Literature Cited

Boyd, H. and A.W. Diamond (1994) Influence of climate on Arctic migratory birds. In: Riewe, R., and Oakes, J., eds. Biological implications of global change: Northern perspectives. Jasper, Alberta: Canadian Circumpolar Institute. 67–75.

Boyd, H. and J. Madsen (1997) Impacts of global change on Arctic‐breeding bird populations and migration. In: Oechel, W.C., Callaghan, T., Gilmanov, T., Holten, J.I., Maxwell, D., Molau, U., and Sveinbjornsson, S., eds. Global change and Arctic terrestrial ecosystems. New York: Springer. 201–217.

Brown, R.G.B. (1986) Revised Atlas of Eastern Canadian Seabirds. Canadian Wildlife Service, Bedford Institute of Oceanography, Dartmouth, Nova Scotia.

60 Climate Change and Renewable Resources in Labrador: Looking toward 2050

Burke, C. and W.A. Montevecchi (in press) Fish and Chicks: Forage Fish and Chick Success in Co‐existing Auks. Waterbirds

Carscadden, J.E. and B.S. Nakashima (1997) Abundance and changes in distribution, biology and behaviour of capelin in response to cooler waters of the 1900s. In Forage fishes in Marine Ecosystems. Proc. Internat Symp Forage Fishes in Alaska. Sea Grant Prog Rep 97‐01. p 457‐468

Carscadden, J. E., W. A. Montevecchi, G. K. Davoren and B. S. Nakashima. 2002. Trophic relationships among Capelin (Mallotus villosus) and marine birds in a changing ecosystem. ICES Journal of Marine Science 59: 1027‐1033.

Frank, K.T., J. E. Carscadden, and J. E. Simon. 1996. Recent excursions of Capelin (Mallotus villosus) to the Scotian Shelf and Flemish Cap during anomalous hydrographic conditions. Canadian Journal of Fisheries and Aquatic Sciences 53: 1473–1486.

Gaston, A.J., K. Woo and M. Hipfner. 2003. Trends in forage fish populations in northern Hudson Bay since 1981, as determined from the diet of nestling Thick‐Billed Murres Uria lomvia. Arctic. 56: 227–233

Hedd, A., P.M. Regular, W.A. Montevecchi, C.M. Burke, A. Buren and D.A. Fifield (2008) Going Deep: Murres dive into frigid water for aggregated, persistent and slow‐moving capelin. Pacific Seabird Group. Blaine Washington. February 2008.

Hutchings, J.A. 2000. Collapse and recovery of marine fishes. Nature. 406: 882‐885.

McGhee, R. and J.A. Tuck .1975. An Archaic Sequence from the Strait of Belle Isle, Labrador. Ottawa, National Museum of Canada.

Montevecchi, W.A. 2007 Binary responses of Northern Gannets (Sula bassana) to changing food web and oceanographic conditions. Marine Ecology Progress Series 352: 213‐220.

Montevecchi, W.A., H. Chaffey and C. Burke. 2007. Hunting for security: Changes in the exploitation of marine birds in Newfoundland and Labrador. Pages 99‐113 in: C. Parrish, S. Solberg and N. Turner (Editors). Resetting the Kitchen Table: Food Security in Canadian Coastal Communities. Nova Science Publishers, New York, New York.

Myers, R.A., G. Mertz, and P.S. Fowlow. 1997. The population growth rate of Atlantic cod (Gadus morhua) at low abundance. Fisheries Bulletin 95: 762–772.

61 Climate Change and Renewable Resources in Labrador: Looking toward 2050

Ecology and Population Dynamics of North Labrador Arctic Charr: A Model Species for Evaluating Impacts of Exploitation and Climate Influences on Population Characteristics

Brian Dempson (dempsonb@dfo‐mpo.gc.ca), Department of Fisheries and Oceans, Science Branch

Arctic charr, Salvelinus alpinus, are distributed throughout the circumpolar region of the northern hemisphere. They are the northernmost freshwater fish species in the world and occur as both anadromous and freshwater resident forms. They are often characterized as being phenotypically “plastic” displaying a suite of different life history tactics that have rendered the species capable of surviving in a variety of habitat types and climatic regimes. Climatic regimes include the high Arctic in areas such as northern Ellesmere Island (e.g. Lake Hazen, 81.5°N), Arctic, and sub‐Arctic areas such as northern Québec and north Labrador, with populations of charr also occurring in southern temperate environments in locations such as southeastern Québec, Newfoundland, and Maine, USA (e.g. Floods Pond, Maine at 44.4°N). In northern freshwater locations, Arctic charr is often the only fish species present, but this phenomenon has also been noted in some higher elevation lakes (500+ m) located in the Long Range mountains of western Newfoundland. In some areas where deeper lakes occur, charr may also differentiate into distinct morphs characterized by differences in morphology, age, size, colour, diet, habitat use and genetics. Examples where multiple morphs occur include Lake Hazen on Ellesmere Island, and Gander Lake, Newfoundland with recent evidence potentially supporting the existence of different morphs at Tessisoak Lake, on the Fraser River system in north Labrador. However, recent studies have also documented polymorphic charr in a relatively shallow lake (25 m) in northern Québec (Lac Aigneau).

More commonly it is the anadromous or sea‐run form that is associated with the Arctic charr species. This is because of the high cultural, subsistence (food) and commercial importance of the species to the Inuit of northern Canada. The anadromous form was commonly believed to be extremely vulnerable to over exploitation as stocks were unable to withstand periods of intense exploitation. Indeed, various reports have been published that have alluded to the ‘collapse’ of populations as a result of over fishing, and the north Labrador region was no exception.

Because charr occur across such a wide range of latitudes, encounter highly variable environments, and exhibit wide diversity in life history to cope with these environments, the species is ideal for investigating issues such as: a) establishing and quantifying linkages between environmental parameters suspected to affect life history and production; b) assessing potential responses to variability and change in climate; c) providing insight as a long‐ term monitor of the actual effects of climate change. Furthermore,

62 Climate Change and Renewable Resources in Labrador: Looking toward 2050 integration of potential effects and biological responses for a major ecosystem component such as charr contributes directly to better understanding of climate change impacts at an ecosystem level.

The following provides a general overview of various studies associated with the Arctic charr resource in north Labrador. Much of the past attention focused on elements associated with the commercial fishery and the effects of long term exploitation on local populations of charr. Recent initiatives have availed of the extensive data sets that have been complied over the past three decades, and used the data as a means by which impacts and influences of environmental variability and change may be investigated and contrasted with data from across the distribut ional range of charr, particularly in eastern Canada.

North Labrador charr fishery

Anadromous Arctic charr have been of significant cultural, subsistence, and commercial importance to the Inuit of northern Labrador for many generations. Commercial fisheries are believed to date from the 1860s and while information is sporadic, landings in excess of 50 tonnes per year are reported from the late 1880s. Detailed information pertaining to catch, effort and biological characteristics of charr captured along the coast from the Voisey’s Bay – Antons area and north, exist since 1974. The north coast area has been partitioned into stock complexes, for management purposes, with the majority of the commercial charr harvested from the Voisey, Nain, and Okak complex areas (Fig. 1).

In the past, the commercial charr fishery at Nain was among the largest single fisheries for charr in the world with annual landings in excess of 200 tonnes in some years. Owing largely to reduced effort, and possibly decreased abundance of the resource, catches have declined precipitously with annual landings during the past decade (1997 ‐ 2006) now averaging about 31 tonnes per year, equivalent to about 17 thousand fish. What is remarkable, is that for a species commonly believed to be unable to tolerate intense exploitation, more than 2800 tonnes (~ 6.2 million pounds) of charr have been caught over the period 1974 to 2006, with most (80%) originating from the Voisey, Nain, and Okak stock complexes (Fig. 2). This equates to more than 1.3 million charr having been harvested in commercial fisheries alone along a limited section of the north Labrador coast. Commercial harvests are in addition to any charr caught for sport, subsistence or food use.

Arctic charr are first recruited into the Labrador fishery at 6 years of age, with 80% of the catch composed of fish 7 to 10 years of age. While fish older than 20 years have been reported, few greater than age 14 are encountered such that the fishery has been, and continues to be supported on the basis of relatively few age classes. Similarly, 85 – 90% of the commercial catch is composed of fish from within the 44 to 56 cm length‐class intervals with relatively few fish greater than 64 cm recorded.

63 Climate Change and Renewable Resources in Labrador: Looking toward 2050

Despite high commercial harvest of charr along a limited section of the north Labrador coast, the age and length distributions of the commercial catches have remained remarkably stable, and indeed are somewhat similar to historical data from samples collected in 1953. Notwithstanding the stability in age and length distributions, what has been reported is a dramatic decline in the overall mean weight or mean‐weights‐at each age of the catch. Indeed, all three stock complexes have shown significant declines in overall weight during the period 1977 to 1997 (Fig. 3). Negative regression coefficients indicate that charr captured in the Nain and Okak areas were declining by about 30 grams per year while Voisey charr were losing about 40 grams annually.

While it is compelling to associate declines in weight with periods of intense exploitation during the 1980s, it is also possible that changes in weight have been affected directly or indirectly by environmental conditions as the weight decline coincided with a period of cooling temperatures in the northwest Atlantic.

Investigating impacts of environmental variability and climate change

Attempts to relate environmental variability and change with various life‐history characteristics of northern fish populations, such as Arctic charr, are often challenging owing to the lack of suitable data sets from which to draw meaningful inferences. To this end two specific approaches have been applied. The first approach addresses temporal investigations where long term data sets at a specific site characterized by environmental variability exist. The second approach considers latitude as a proxy for climate effects and examines variation in measured life‐history traits (growth, fecundity etc.) in a spatial context where populations are sampled from different climate regions.

Temporal studies

As an example of a temporal study, investigations have shown that fluctuations about trends in various metrics associated with the commercial catch of charr in the north Labrador fishery could not be explained solely on the basis of exploitation. Specifically, it was shown that that summer sea‐surface temperatures, and summer precipitation and temperature lagged 4 years to the time when many fish first migrate to sea can strongly influence patterns observed in trends in various metrics such as mean weight.

Changes in size (weight) of Nain charr have also been associated with diet shifts. During the 1990s environmental conditions in the northwest Atlantic fluctuated from among the coldest to warmest conditions recorded often with consequences linked to dramatic changes in abundance, distribution and biology of various marine species. Not only was there less food observed in the stomachs overall, but capelin, once a dominant component of the diet of anadromous charr from the Nain stock complex all but disappeared from the diet by 1991. In recent years, however, capelin has once again become the single most important prey item utilized by these charr. The contribution of capelin in the diet, and the changes that occurred over time have been shown to explain part of the variation in mean weight of charr caught at Nain (Fig. 4). 64 Climate Change and Renewable Resources in Labrador: Looking toward 2050

Spatial studies

Latitudinal studies are relevant for understanding potential effects of climate change because variation in key parameters, such as temperature, may serve as a proxy to understand or even predict climate‐ driven shifts in biological characteristics over time. Fecundity is one such important life‐history attribute that can directly affect population dynamics. Accordingly, information on fecundity of Arctic charr was assembled for 32 populations distributed across a north‐south latitudinal gradient of 37° (Maine to Ellesmere Island; Fig. 5). This covers most of the distributional range of Arctic charr in eastern North America, and includes population from the high Arctic, Arctic, sub‐Arctic and temperate climate environments. Charr populations were identified by different morphotypes that included anadromous, normal lacustrine‐sized charr, and dwarf charr where the latter populations are characterized by fish that did not exceed 22 cm in length.

Results of analyses indicate that fecundity varies significantly among individual sampling locations for all morphotypes of charr. Latitudinal variation in fecundity was also evident among morphotypes when the simultaneous effects of latitude and fish size were controlled (Fig. 6). For all morphotypes, the estimated latitudinal coefficients were negative implying a decrease in fecundity in more northern locations. In general, charr populations in Labrador had higher fecundity than anadromous populations elsewhere.

Continuing investigations

Oxygen isotopes extracted from fish otoliths can be used to reconstruct thermal (temperature) histories that are of potential interest to investigate climate variability and change effects on species such as Arctic charr. Archived historical and newly collected otoliths have now been analysed and used to develop genus‐specific (Salvelinus) fractionation equations. Equations are required to associate the otolith and water oxygen isotopes to the temperature history experienced by the fish. Subsequent analyses will investigate thermal histories of charr from across the distributional range of in eastern North America that may provide insight into location‐specific responses of charr to temperature variation and change.

Analyses carbon and nitrogen stable isotopes can be used to determine patterns of energy flow and trophic (feeding) level. Data collected in north Labrador, and elsewhere as part of the International Polar Year project (Climate Variability and Change Effects on Charr in the Arctic ‐ led by Dr. J. Reist, DFO Winnipeg), are being analysed to determine if patterns of trophic variation among populations are associated with local climate regimes and habitat use.

65 Climate Change and Renewable Resources in Labrador: Looking toward 2050

Selected References

Dempson, J. B. 1995. Trends in population characteristics of an exploited anadromous Arctic charr, Salvelinus alpinus, stock in northern Labrador. Nordic Journal Freshwater Research 71: 197‐216.

Dempson, J. B., and J. M. Green. 1985. Life history of anadromous Arctic charr, Salvelinus alpinus, in the Fraser River, northern Labrador. Canadian Journal of Zoology 63: 315‐324

Dempson, J. B., and A.H. Kristofferson. 1987. Spatial and temporal aspects of the ocean migration of anadromous Arctic char. American Fisheries Society Symposium 1:340‐357

Dempson, J. B., M. Shears, and M. Bloom. 2002. Spatial and temporal variability in the diet of anadromous Arctic charr, Salvelinus alpinus, in northern Labrador. Environmental Biology of Fishes 64: 49‐62.

Dempson, J. B., M. Shears, G. Furey and M. Bloom. 2008. Resilience and stability of north Labrador Arctic charr, Salvelinus alpinus, subject to exploitation and environmental variability. Environmental Biology of Fishes. In Press – Online version available at EBF journal site, August 2007.

Guiger, K. R. R. A., J. D. Reist, M. Power, and J. A. Babaluk. 2002. Using stable isotopes to confirm the trophic ecology of Arctic charr morphotypes from Lake Hazen, Nunavut, Canada. Journal of Fish Biology 60: 348‐362.

O'Connell, M. F., and J. B. Dempson. 2002. The biology of Arctic charr, Salvelinus alpinus, of Gander Lake, a large deep, oligotrophic lake in Newfoundland, Canada. Environmental Biology of Fishes 64: 115‐126

Power, M., J. B. Dempson, G. Power, and J. D. Reist. 2000. Climatic influence on an exploited Arctic char (Salvelinus alpinus) stock in Labrador. Journal of Fish Biology 57: 82‐98.

Power, M., J. B. Dempson, J. D. Reist, and G. Power. 2005. Latitudinal variation in fecundity among Arctic char populations in eastern North America. Journal of Fish Biology 67: 255‐273.

Reist, J. D., F. J. Wrona, T. D. Prowse, M. Power, J. B. Dempson, R. J. Beamish, J. R. King, T. J. Carmichael, and C. D. Sawatzky. 2006. General effects of climate change on Arctic fishes and fish populations. Ambio 35: 370‐380.

Reist, J. D., F. J. Wrona, T. D. Prowse, M. Power, J. B. Dempson, J. R. King, and R. J. Beamish. 2006. An overview of effects of climate change on selected Arctic freshwater and anadromous fishes. Ambio 35: 381‐387.

Reist, J. D., F,. J. Wrona, T. D. Prowse, J. B. Dempson, M. Power, G. Köck, T. J. Carmichael, C. D. Sawatzky, H. Lehtonen, and R. F. Tallman. 2006. Effects of climate change and UV radiation of fisheries for Arctic freshwater and anadromous species. Ambio 35: 402‐410.

66 Climate Change and Renewable Resources in Labrador: Looking toward 2050

Storm‐Suke, A., J. B. Dempson, F. Caron, and M. Power. 2007. A field‐derived oxygen isotope fractionation equation for Salvelinus species. Rapid Communications in Mass Spectrometry 21: 4109‐4116.

Wrona, F. J., T. D. Prowse, J. D. Reist. 2005. Freshwater ecosystems and fisheries. In: Arctic Climate Impact Assessment. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK. Chapter 8, pp. 353‐452.

Further information available from:

• J. B. Dempson, Fisheries & Oceans Canada, 80 East White Hills Rd., St. John’s, NL brian.dempson@dfo‐mpo.gc.ca • M. Power, University of Waterloo, Dept. of Biology, 200 University Ave. West [email protected] • J. D. Reist, Fisheries and Oceans Canada, 501 University Crescent, Winnipeg, MB R3T 2N6 jim.reist@dfo‐mpo.gc.ca

67 Climate Change and Renewable Resources in Labrador: Looking toward 2050

Historical Significance and Future Availability of Atlantic Salmon to Peoples of the Labrador Coast within Contexts of Climate Change

Larry Felt ([email protected]), Professor of Sociology, Memorial University

Atlantic salmon (Salmo salar L.) have been an important economic, cultural (spiritual) and nutritional resource for successive peoples of coastal Labrador for several thousand years. While relatively little detailed information is available before the 1200, oral tradition and limited archeological evidence strongly suggest Atlantic salmon, along with cod and arctic char were the most important fish species. Along with marine mammals and caribou, these three fish species provided the most important source of protein for a succession of aboriginal peoples dating back perhaps as early as 9,000 years (Tuck 1976; Samson and Tremblay 1986).

In relatively more recent times, the economic value of salmon quickly became recognized as European nations such as Spain, Portugal, France, and particularly Great Britian acquired the capacity to exploit marine resources in Eastern North America. As early as the fifteenth and sixteenth centuries, Atlantic salmon were harvested, processed in pickled form and sent back to Europe in barrels weighing approximately 420‐450 pounds called tierces (Taylor 1985). Some indication of the magnitude of this trade is suggested in this graph assembled from Taylor’s attempt to reconstruct harvest levels from the eighteenth century. While data is uneven, harvests up to 447 metric tonne were recorded in the nineteenth century. Until its closure in 1998, landings were typically above 500 tonne and reached as high as 828 tonne in 1981 (DFO 1987).

68 Climate Change and Renewable Resources in Labrador: Looking toward 2050

Estimated Landings, 1763-1909

500.0

447.8 450.0

400.0 377.7

350.0 337.8

300.0

250.0 230.9 Series1 217.1 Metric Tonne 200.0 185.3

149.7 150.0 113.3 98.0 94.9 99.5 100.0

43.1 50.0

0.0 1763 1775 1804 1812 1831 1863 1875 1880 1889 1895 1904 1909 Year

Since 1998, the importance of Atlantic salmon in Labrador has been linked to recreational ‘sport’ fisheries and allocations to the three aboriginal communities of Labrador (Inuit, Innu and Metis) under a Food, Social and Ceremonial (FSC) allotment pursuant to the recognition of their aboriginal rights to fish (Reddin et. al. 2004; 2006).

Current harvests are summarized in the graph below

Recent FSC and REC Harvests

60 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 Metric Tonne Metric 15 10 5 0 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 Year

FSC Rec Retained and Released

Since 1999 these harvests have varied between 22 and 54 metric tonne. It would be a mistake to simply conclude that the lower harvests of recent years indicate any decline in social, cultural or even 69 Climate Change and Renewable Resources in Labrador: Looking toward 2050 economic importance. Most of the reduction is a result of resource decline and corresponding reductions in harvesting flowing from various management restrictions. Unequivocally, the Atlantic salmon remains an important foundational element in Inuit, Innu and Metis culture. Moreover, should stocks recover, there would almost surely be requests for much expanded FSC fisheries as well as renewal of commercial harvests. As highways penetrate the Labrador wilderness, greater expansion in recreational fisheries are likewise inevitable given the coveted role Atlantic salmon play in such fisheries.

In summary then, Atlantic salmon continue to play an important part in the culture and lives of coastal Labrador aboriginal peoples as well as those anglers, most often from away, that come in pursuit of them. Lower harvests reflect more a decline in overall abundance for reasons still not well understood than a decline in overall significance in the lives of people who reside near the watersheds to which they return each year.

Atlantic salmon capacity to adapt to climate change:

The key to understanding Atlantic salmon capacity to adapt to climate change lies in their highly complex and adaptive life cycle. This life cycle is simultaneously iteroparous, anadromous and diadromous (Chaput et al. 2004; O’Connel et. al 2006). By this is meant, they can survive to reproduce multiple times, grow to maturity in saltwater yet return to fresh water to reproduce and spend parts of their life cycle in both fresh and saltwater respectively.

Within this complex life cycle, they also display high plasticity and variability in adaptation to a fairly wide range of temperate freshwater and saltwater environments (O’Connell et. al. 2006; Fleming and Jensen 2002). For example in freshwater, juveniles show highly variable timings in their migration to salt water even from the same river. Thus, while time spent in freshwater as juveniles varies between two and seven or more years depending upon latitude and temperature, in each watershed there is a fair amount of variation around this ‘typical’ age of migration. A limited number even achieve sexual maturity entirely in fresh water as ‘precocious parr’ and are capable of fertilizing eggs laid by mature female salmon despite being no more than 20 centimetre in size.

70 Climate Change and Renewable Resources in Labrador: Looking toward 2050

Similar variation occurs in marine environments. From the same cohort of juveniles, some fish will remain at sea for only one year, returning to ascend their natal river as ‘grilse’ while others will remain at sea for two or three years returning as multi sea winter (MSW) adults. If surviving an initial spawning and returning to the ocean, some will return the next year, others, even if originally one sea winter grilse, will remain for two years to become ‘alternate spawning’ grilse. Even salmon spending two or three initial years at sea may also demonstrate similar alternate spawning behavior (Cairns 2006).

Time spent at sea also greatly affects their spatial utilization of the North West Atlantic ocean. One sea winter maturing fish typically do not migrate beyond the Labrador sea while multiple sea winter fish migrate greater distances reaching Southwest Greenland in late summer.

71 Climate Change and Renewable Resources in Labrador: Looking toward 2050

Variability continues in its return to freshwater to start another life cycle. While Atlantic salmon are known for their seemingly uncanny capacity to locate their natal river and ascend it to a location extremely close to where their life began, upwards of 10% seemingly loose their way to colonize nearby watersheds (Reddin 2006).

This variation, along with a fairly‐wide temperature tolerance from 0 to 24 degrees Celsius make the fish highly robust and adaptable (Fleming and Jensen 2002; Reddin et. al. 2004). In fact, historical accounts indicate that early harvests often involved barring off entire rivers in which virtually an entire year class of returning fish was harvested save for the odd ‘freshet’ making water flows unsatisfactory for fishing. Several consecutive years of such practices were required to severely deplete a watershed’s population. When left fallow for several years, even such heavily exploited rivers usually recovered.

There is an important irony in highly flexible species such as Atlantic salmon. One the one hand, their complex life history and considerable variability within it, make them quite adaptable species, particularly where the rate as well as the magnitude of change is modest to moderate. On the other hand, their natural populations tend to be highly variable even without considering human exploitation.

General Effects of Climate Change on Atlantic salmon

As a cold‐blooded creature, the most important factor affecting Atlantic salmon is temperature (Berner et. al 2005; Potter et. al. 2006; Lilly and Cascadden 2002; Fleming and Jensen 2002)). Temperature can affect salmon both directly and indirectly at every life cycle stage WWF 2005). Adaptation at each life cycle stage has evolved over several thousand years to accommodate temperature ranges between 0 and 24 degrees with various life stages optimally suited to more narrow ranges. For example, optimal growth in freshwater occurs within a rough range of 8 to 18 degrees Celsius. Temperature‐related mortality begins to occur beyond 22 degrees with a upper lethal limit of 24 to 26 degrees depending upon length of exposure. Decisions to migrate seaward is also, at least in part, temperature driven along with phototropic factors.

In marine environments, temperature affects growth rate and marine fitness. There is some evidence that Atlantic salmon prefer a water temperature regime of 6 to 16 degrees to adapt optimally to the marine environment and initiate a growth spurt related to marine survival. In their migratory behavior, sea water temperature, particularly though not exclusively in the upper 10 metres, affects migratory patterns (Reddin 2006 ; Fleming 2002).

Temperature may also be linked indirectly to Atlantic salmon in both fresh and marine environments across all life cycle stages. Temperature effects precipitation that in turn affects freshwater hydrology, particularly water volume and its temporal variation. Extremely low water retards returns to natal rivers. Extremely high and low water levels may turn passable obstacles in freshwater migration into complete barriers. Seasonal shifts in volume may dislodge eggs from river nests and in a seasonal shift

72 Climate Change and Renewable Resources in Labrador: Looking toward 2050 to ice may gouge river substrate destroying substantial portions of any given year class and making spawning sites no longer productive.

In marine as well as terrestrial environments temperature affects barometric pressure and through this interaction weather ’fronts’ of high and low pressure. Such ‘weather effects’ in turn affect large marine systems such as the North Atlantic oscillation (NAO) that in turn affects marine currents, thermal water stratification, ice production and a host of other environmental factors each of which can affect some aspect of Atlantic salmon life history.

In addition, there is another level of consequence linked to any changes in trophic patterns. Speficially, how might any of these ‘environmental’ changes effects food supply and predation of Atlantic salmon? While salmon are reasonably opportunistic with regard to food, substantial shifts in pelagic fish species and or crustaceans may effect conditioning which in turn effects survival directly and indirectly. Similar effects are possible in relation to animals that prey upon salmon.

Such complex interactions combined with the more direct effects of temperature make predicting precise effects upon Atlantic salmon difficult. The lack of a single set of parameters to quantify the precise effects of climate change further complicates the problem. Despite such difficulties, several recent efforts have been undertaken to do so.

Climate effects of Atlantic salmon in Coastal Labrador

Of several species studied with regard to the effects of climate change, Atlantic salmon have been identified as a species that is likely to be significantly effected. Any effects, however, are not likely to be consistent across the entire range of the species. In fact, the best ‘guess’, and it is little more than that given the scarcity of information on Labrador stocks of Atlantic salmon, suggests there is likely to be a slight northward shift in range without any loss at lower Labrador latitudes. Overall population levels are likely to be generally unaffected though there is the possibility of somewhat greater annual variation.

With the exception of a separate stock in Ungava Bay of Northern Quebec, Labrador represents the northern limit of a temperate species such as Atlantic salmon. Direct and indirect effects of temperature are therefore most likely not lead to substantial species displacement in the region. Having said this, there may very well be some changes that do not easily provide estimates for population levels. These include possibly earlier ‘smoltification’ when juvenile salmon begin their migration to saltwater, differences in run timing of returns to rivers and some possible shifts in migratory routes.

The picture is not nearly as optimistic at more southerly limits. Studies in Europe and North America suggest populations of Atlantic salmon from the Southern Gulf of St. Lawrence to the Gulf of Maine may suffer substantial effects with lower latitude ones suffering most.

73 Climate Change and Renewable Resources in Labrador: Looking toward 2050

Beset by habitat damage, urban encroachment and unknown causes, Atlantic salmon, before any potential effects of climate change, are already listed as endangered. More recently, near total stock collapse has occurred in New Brunswick’s inner Bay of Fundy and stocks in the contiguous outer Bay of Fundy showing severe depopulation. Depending upon the specific climate model and associate temperature regimes, effects in North America may expand into the lower Gulf of St. Lawrence while much of Northern Europe will also suffer decline WWF 2005).

References

Berner, J. Symon, C, Arris, L and Heal, B. Eds. 2005. Arctic Climate Impact Assessment. Cambridge University Press:Cambridge. Overview at http://amap.no/acia/

Cairns, D. K. 2006. A review of predator‐prey and competitive inter‐specific interactions in Atlantic salmon (Salmo salar). Canadian Science Advisory Secretariat Research Document ‐ 2006/019. Fisheries and Oceans, Canada:

Ottawa. http://www.dfo‐mpo.gc.ca/csas/Csas/Publications/ResDocs‐DocRech/2006/2006_019_e.htm

Chaput, G., J.B. Dempson, F. Caron, R. Jones and J. Gibson 2006 A synthesis of life history characteristics and stock grouping of Atlantic salmon (Salmo salar L.) in eastern Canada. Canadian Science Advisory Secretariat Research Document ‐ 2006/015. Fisheries and Oceans, Canada:Ottawa. At http://www.dfo‐ mpo.gc.ca/csas/Csas/Publications/ResDocs‐DocRech/2006/2006_015_e.htm

Dempson, J.B., M.F. O’Connell, D.G. Reddin, and N.M. Cochrane. 2006. Stock status summary for Atlantic salmon from Newfoundland and Labrador. Canadian Science Advisory Secretariat Research Document ‐ 2006/028. Fisheries and Oceans, Canada:Ottawa. At http://www.dfo‐ mpo.gc.ca/csas/Csas/Publications/ResDocs‐DocRech/2006/2006_028_e.htm

Fleming, I. and Jensen, A. J. 2002. Fisheries: Effects of climate Change on the Life Cycles of Salmon. In Causes and Consequences of Global Environmental Change. Vol. 3. I. Douglas, Ed. John Wiley and Sons: Chichester. Pp. 309‐312.

Gregory, D.N. 2004. Climate: A Database of Temperature and Salinity Observations for the Northwest Atlantic Canadian Science Advisory Secretariat Research Document ‐ 2004/075. Fisheries and Oceans, Canada:Ottawa. At http://www.dfo‐mpo.gc.ca/csas/Csas/publications/ResDocs‐ DocRech/2004/2004_075_e.htm

O’Connell, M.F., J.B. Dempson, and G. Chaput. 2006. Aspects of the Life History, Biology, and Population Dynamics of Atlantic Salmon (Salmo salar L.) in Eastern Canada. Canadian Science Advisory Secretariat. Research Document ‐ 2006/014. Fisheries and Oceans, Canada: Ottawa. At http://www.dfo‐ mpo.gc.ca/csas/csas/publications/resdocs‐docrech/2006/2006_014_e.htm 74 Climate Change and Renewable Resources in Labrador: Looking toward 2050

Potter, E.C.E, O’Maoileideigh, N and Chaput, G. 2003. Marine Mortality of Atlantic salmon, Salmo salar L.: Methods and measures. Canadian Science Advisory Secretariat. Canadian Research Document ‐ 2003/101. Fisheries and Oceans, Canada: Ottawa. At http://www.dfo‐ mpo.gc.ca/csas/Csas/publications/ResDocs‐DocRech/2003/2003_101_e.htm.

Predicting the Future of Marine Fish off Labrador and Eastern Newfoundland under Scenarios of Climate Change; Information and Thoughts for the Climate Impact Assessment. 2002.

G. Lilly and J. Carscadden. Canadian Science Advisory Secretariat, Fisheries and Oceans, Canada, ResDoc 2002/111.

D.R. Reddin. 2006. Perspectives on the marine ecology of Atlantic salmon (Salmo salar) in the Northwest Atlantic. Canadian Science Advisory Secretariat, Research Document 2006/018. Fisheries and Oceans, Canada: Ottawa. At http://www.dfo‐mpo.gc.ca/csas/Csas/Publications/ResDocs‐DocRech/2006/2006_018_e.htm

Reddin, D.G., J.B. Dempson, and P.G. Amiro. 2006. Conservation Requirementsfor Atlantic salmon (Salmo salar L.) in Labrador rivers. Canadian Science Advisory Secretariat Research Document ‐ 2006/071. Fisheries and Oceans, Canada:Ottawa. At http://www.dfo‐ mpo.gc.ca/csas/Csas/Publications/ResDocs‐DocRech/2006/2006_071_e.htm

Reddin, D.G., Anthony, R., Watts, K., Nuna, R., Luther, R.J. 2004. Environmental conditions and harvests in various fisheries for salmonids in Labrador, 2002. Canadian Science Advisory Secretariat Research Document ‐ 2004/003. Fisheries and Oceans, Canada:Ottawa. At http://www.dfo‐ mpo.gc.ca/csas/Csas/publications/ResDocs‐DocRech/2004/2004_003_e.htm

Samson, G. and C. Tremblay. 1985. Archaeology of the Lower North Shore. Laval University: St. Foy, PQ.

Taylor, V.P. 1985. The Early Atlantic salmon Fishery in Newfoundland and Labrador. Canadian Special Publication of Fisheries and Aquatic Sciences 76. Fisheries and Oceans, Canada: Ottawa.

Tuck, J. 1976. Newfoundland and Labrador Prehistory. National Museum of Man: Ottawa.

Word Wildlife Fund. 2005. Implications for a 2o C Global Temperature Rise for Canadian Natural Resources. WWW Report. Gland, Switzerland. At http://panda.org/about_wwf/what_we_do/climate_change/publications/resistance_resilience.cfm?uNe ws|D=52100.

75 Climate Change and Renewable Resources in Labrador: Looking toward 2050

PUBLIC SESSION: CLIMATE AND ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE IN THE LABRADOR HIGHLANDS

Running parallel to the research lectures occurring at the Labrador Institute, a public drop‐in session was held at the Community Hall in North West River. This was an introductory discussion on what climate change is and on research that has been ongoing in the highlands of Labrador, and was facilitated by members of the Labrador Highlands Research Group from Memorial University‐ Andrew Trant and Anne Munier.

The Labrador Highlands Research Group has been studying climate change and its impact on tundra and treeline ecosystems in highlands of Newfoundland and Labrador. Research objectives include:

‐ Determining how the ecosystems evolved in the past ‐ Understanding the systems in relation to their current climate ‐ Predicting what may happen to them under a future climate

Projects investigate the past, present and future of climate, vegetation, and animals in the highlands. Specific studies were described in more depth in the presentation by Luise Hermanutz: Can Trees Climb Mountains? From tundra to trees – a tale of changing treeline in the highlands of Labrador (extended abstract in report p. 25).

The session was interactive and responsive to the interests of participants, who were largely local community members and students from the Environmental Field Assistant program based out of Sheshatshiu. Participant learnt the basics of dendrochronology (tree ring analysis), plant measurements, and some experimental procedures to investigate climate change impacts.

Discussion included questions about the level of understanding that humans have of climate change, what its local impacts may be and how we can study this, and observations about possible environmental and social elements being influenced by climate change were offered. The session also gave participants an opportunity to see the research posters brought by many of the conference speakers and to look at pictures from Labrador highlands research.

76 Climate Change and Renewable Resources in Labrador: Looking toward 2050

DAY 3: MAKING OUR KNOWLEDGE RELEVANT

Facilitator: Rob Greenwood, Leslie Harris Centre, Memorial University

Conference participants were divided into six groups with a diversity of geographical and sectoral areas represented in each one. The groups took approximately 1 ½ hours to discuss the following two questions:

• What are the key challenges presented by climate change to Labrador’s environment, renewable resources and communities? • What are the top 5 priority actions for adapting to climate change with respect to Labrador’s environment, renewable resources and communities, and who are best suited to carry these out?

Participants also had the opportunity to fill out individual forms with their personal responses to the above two questions.

Groups then shared their challenges and actions with the larger conference. Similar ideas were pooled and summarized and are presented below, in decreasing order of popularity. A more detailed description of the responses is presented in Appendix III.

Challenges:

1. Communicating Knowledge: All of the groups highlighted the need for better communication amongst communities and researchers; some specifically stating that researchers have the responsibility to relay information about research activities and findings back to local communities, and that the knowledge held in communities is valuable to other communities and to researchers. Challenges to effective communication can be cultural, technical, or related to the financial constraints of traveling to remote communities for meetings.

2. Understanding changes to harvested species: This was another challenge strongly articulated by all groups. Changes are being observed in the distribution and health of culturally and economically important species such as trees, fish, waterfowl, and mammals that are harvested. Many of these changes are novel, making it difficult to understand them well enough for effective future management.

3. Collecting long‐term environmental data: While communities in Labrador have a wealth of people who are knowledgeable about the environment and are observing changes to it, their information is haphazard and difficult to make sense of. The challenge will be for these

77 Climate Change and Renewable Resources in Labrador: Looking toward 2050

observations to be coordinated and standardized to the extent that they can be compared regionally yet still maintain local relevance, and for this knowledge to then be disseminated throughout Labrador and beyond.

4. Uncertainty about climate change impacts: The local‐level impacts of climate change are extremely complex. Our understanding of them must be improved in order to guide local planning and decision making. Wider community education and engagement concerning climate change is crucial to ensure the motivation and support necessary to undertake effective actions and good decisions.

5. Travel and infrastructure safety: As ice regimes, snow cover and ground stability change with the climate it will be challenging to adapt travel infrastructure and routes to ensure ongoing safe and efficient transportation over water, ice and land. The physical infrastructure of communities will be similarly affected, and the unpredictability of many of these changes makes adaptation even more challenging.

6. Making climate change a regional, national and international priority: Positive actions to mitigate climate change impacts require national and international support. The challenge will be to clearly and effectively communicate the urgency of the problem and ideas for mitigation to industry and government in order to ensure adequate long term support for relevant programs. The sparse population of Labrador makes this task more difficult.

7. Maintaining cultural identity: Climate change’s potential to force cultural change onto the people of Labrador is of concern to many. This could happen by altering the physical environment that is so tied to Labrador’s cultural identity, or by affecting social change through impacts on economic pursuits and human migration. Adapting to these changes in healthy ways and supporting residents through associated difficulties will be a challenge for communities.

78 Climate Change and Renewable Resources in Labrador: Looking toward 2050

8. Sustainable Development: Mitigating climate change by making communities more energy efficient was an identified goal, though challenges to this include the need for more education and capacity building within communities, and financial support to make these initiatives feasible.

9. Maintaining biodiversity: There is still much uncertainty about how climate change will affect whole ecosystems. The introduction of new species, species extinction and extirpation, and changes to the structure and function of systems were all identified possibilities. Effectively conserving biodiversity in this changing climate will be a challenge!

10. Understanding the cumulative impacts of issues beyond climate change: As in many parts of the world, Labrador is facing many issues including large‐scale development, political changes, and economic concerns. Responding to climate change will be even more complex due to the need to understand their cumulative impacts.

Priority Actions:

1. Improve collaboration amongst communities, researchers, and governments: This can be achieved by more effective relationship‐building and information‐sharing amongst researchers, community members and government representatives. It should involve collaborative meetings, synthesizing and sharing knowledge in accessible ways, and consolidating regional knowledge to build on what’s been done. This will then lead to the development of regionally relevant research efforts and policies.

Who should take this on: Communities, Aboriginal groups, Researchers, Labrador Institute, Government, Institute for Ecological Monitoring and Research (IEMR), Existing networks

79 Climate Change and Renewable Resources in Labrador: Looking toward 2050

2. Establish monitoring programs: The systematic collection of information on the changing physical and biological world will add to our knowledge of local climate change impacts and will inform mitigation, adaptation and research planning. These must be community‐based to ensure local relevance; long term; and information must be regionally accessible through a coordinated network.

Who should take this on: Labrador Institute, Universities and Colleges, Aboriginal governments, Arctic Net, Industry, Community groups, Environment Canada, Provincial Wildlife Department, Municipal governments

3. Educate and engage communities: Communities’ awareness of climate change and their capacity to respond effectively to it must be raised. This can be accomplished through formal and informal education, including the development of training programs, media‐based programs, and, as suggested by one table, an ecosystem analysis facility for Labrador. Funding for new job positions would be required.

Who should take this on: Central agency to deliver information (ex. Colleges, Institute for Ecological Monitoring and Research‐ IEMR, Labrador Institute), Community offices, Memorial University, Provincial government

4. Compile existing knowledge: The large but disjointed body of knowledge that exists in and about Labrador (local, traditional and scientific) must be compiled and made accessible throughout the province, in order to inform research and policy decision making.

Who should take this on: Communities, Colleges and Universities, Governments

5. Adapt infrastructure for coming changes: Increased pressure on infrastructure due to climate change must be planned for and will need to include modifying structures themselves, making decisions about where and how future building should proceed, and consideration of warning devices for travel in potentially dangerous sea and ice regimes.

Who should take this on: Communities, Provincial government, Natural Resources Canada

80 Climate Change and Renewable Resources in Labrador: Looking toward 2050

6. Garner support for climate change action: Education and action by Labrador communities can be used to raise the profile of regional climate change to national and international agencies, and strengthen applications for project support.

Who should take this on: Communities, Non‐governmental organizations, Educators, Governments, Industry

7. Ensure support for health and safety: Beyond infrastructure changes necessary for the physical safety of Labradorians, community health organizations must understand the impacts that climate change will have on the social health of residents and offer appropriate support.

Who should take this on: Community health networks

8. Make communities more sustainable: Raise the capacity of Labradorians to establish green technologies such as solar and wind power and value‐added timber production. In addition to climate change mitigation this will increase awareness of the issue, add valuable skills to these communities, and serve as an example to more southern centres.

Who should take this on: Communities (individuals and councils), Government, Universities, Companies, Regional economic development boards, Aboriginal organizations

9. Maintain ecosystem conservation: Widening the use of ecosystem‐based management (as exemplified by the Innu Nation), modifying environmental impact assessments, and creating a protected areas network are steps that should be taken to maintain the conservation of biodiversity despite the uncertainty of coming changes.

Who should take this on: Government (all levels), Community, Researchers

10. Prioritize actions: Given the range of potential impacts from climate change as well as the cumulative impacts from other issues affecting Labrador, institutions must collaboratively determine priorities and strategic approaches to planning for changes.

Who should take this on: New institute or consortium of institutes, Government (all levels) 81 Climate Change and Renewable Resources in Labrador: Looking toward 2050

CLOSING REMARKS

On behalf of the co‐chairs and hosts, Trevor Bell thanked the participants for making the conference such a success. The community involvement was fantastic and there was genuine dialogue established between scientists and local experts. The conference has raised awareness of climate change issues in Labrador and real progress was achieved in identifying challenges posed by climate change impacts on renewable resources. Of equal importance is the consensus achieved on priority actions to understand climate change impacts in local communities and develop adaptive strategies for living with future climate change and variability. The conference co‐chairs plan to meet with government agencies, provincial and local organizations and communities to discuss how these priority actions may be initiated under new and existing climate change adaptation and northern development strategies for Labrador.

The conference closed on a very positive note and participants voiced strong optimism for building on this success with regional workshops on climate change adaptation in Labrador. Suggestions were made for a North Coast workshop in fall 2008 and there is good reason to build on the momentum of the North West River conference at the first opportunity.

Participants were informed how conference reports and presentations would be made available in digital format through the Labrador Highlands Research Group web site (www.mun.ca/geog/lhrg/) and in paper format at strategic locations in communities. Finally, members of the local organizing committee were thanked for their generous support and enthusiasm in making the conference such a success.

82 Climate Change and Renewable Resources in Labrador: Looking toward 2050

APPENDIX 1: CONFERENCE AGENDA

Tuesday, March 11 Setting the Stage

Public Session ‐ 10:00am to 2:30pm ‐ NWR Community Hall Featured Speakers:

Past and present climate and renewable resource changes in John Jacobs, Trevor Bell: Labrador Labrador’s Changing Climate

Keith Chaulk: Labrador’s Renewable Dialogue with the community: Personal and traditional Resources: Past and Present perspectives on resources and environmental change. A moderated lunch and afternoon session involving Gary Lines: Climate Change Projections for researchers, local and traditional knowledge‐holders, and the Newfoundland and Labrador: A Closer Look public. Martin Moroni: Climate Change and Forests: Wednesday, March 12 Sharing What We Know Labrador

Luise Hermanutz: Can Trees Climb Mountains? Scientific Sessions ‐ 9:00am to 5:00pm ‐ Labrador From Tundra to Trees – a Tale of changing Interpretation Centre Treeline and Climate in Highland Labrador

Past, present and potential future interactions of climate and Valerie Courtois: Climate Change and Forestry renewable resources in Labrador Monitoring from an Innu Perspective

Featured speakers on climate change and renewable Rebecca Jeffery: Caribou Herds in Labrador resources. Becky Sjare: Labrador Seals: Understanding the Importance of Changing Sea Ice Conditions Public Workshop on Climate Change – 2:00pm to 4:30pm –

NWR Community Hall Chantelle Burke: Planet Ocean ‐ Using Seabirds to Assay Climate Change Members of the Labrador Highlands Research Group, Memorial University, will present an introductory workshop Brian Dempson: Ecology and Population on climate change in Labrador for members of the public. Dynamics of North Labrador Arctic Charr Posters by conference delegates will also be on display. Larry Felt: Historical Significance and Future Registered Delegates Evening Dinner ‐ 6:30pm to 8:30pm ‐ Availability of Atlantic Salmon in Labrador NWR Community Hall

Thursday, March 13 Making Our Knowledge Relevant

Public Session ‐ 9:00am to 12:30pm ‐ NWR Community Hall

What do climate change and its impacts on renewable resources mean for our communities? A facilitated workshop about adapting to the realities of a changing climate. Community members are encouraged to participate.

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APPENDIX II: CONFERENCE PARTICIPANTS

Conference Attendance

A total of 93 participants registered for the conference, a 20% increase above our planning estimate. More than 40 of these registrants represented aboriginal organizations or were from aboriginal communities. In addition, more than 40 local residents of Sheshatshiu and North West River “dropped in” to the various sessions. Table 2.1 shows a breakdown of attendance by session.

Many participants traveled from throughout the province and some from other parts of Canada to take part. Representatives from the following Labrador communities took part:

• Cartwright • Forteau • Happy Valley‐Goose Bay • Hopedale • Nain • Natuashish • North West River • Port Hope Simpson • Rigolet • Sheshatshiu

Table2.1: Total number of participants that attended conference sessions

Conference Session Number of attendees

Day One community forum and “Mug-up” 135

Day Two scientific sessions 94

Day Two public workshop 30

Day Three facilitated workshop 85

The conference welcomed students from the Environmental Field Assistant Program, Sheshatshiu, and from the Adult Basic Education Program, from the College of the North Atlantic in North West River, and benefited from their participation.

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A drop in session on the afternoon of Day 2 was developed for the students and any interested members of the public which was an interactive discussion on climate change and research in the highlands.

Many other organizations and agencies were represented at the conference, and these included:

• Canadian Forest Service • Central Labrador Economic Development Board Inc • College of the North Atlantic • Cornell University • Department of Environment and Conservation, Government of NL • Department of Labrador & Aboriginal Affairs, Government of NL • Department of Natural Resources, Government of NL • Environment Canada • Environmental Field Assistant Program, Sheshatshiu • Environmental Sciences Group, Royal Military College of Canada • Fisheries and Oceans Canada • Gorsebrook Research Institute • Innu Nation • Institute for Biodiversity, Ecosystem Science and Sustainability, Memorial University • Institute for Environmental Monitoring and Research • Inuit relations Secretariat, Indian and Northern Affairs • Katimavik • Labrador Institute • Labrador Lake Melville Tourism Association • Labrador Métis Nation • Memorial University • Minaskuat Limited Partnership • Model Forest of Newfoundland and Labrador • Nunatsiavut Government • Nunatsiavut Nuluak • Parks Canada Agency • Sivunivut Corporation Inc. • Southeastern Aurora Development Corporation • The Leslie Harris Centre, Memorial University • Town of Happy Valley‐Goose Bay • ULMES • Upper Lake Melville Environmental Society, Inc.

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APPENDIX III: MORE DETAILED PARTICIPANT RESPONSES ON DAY 3

Many interesting and unique perspectives came out of the discussions on the key challenges presented by climate change in Labrador, and the priority actions that are called for. The following are more detailed responses that came out of those discussions that were summarized in the Report Section Day 3: Making our Knowledge Relevant (p. 63). Similar ideas contributed by different groups and individuals have been synthesized, and the challenges and actions are listed in descending order of how commonly they were contributed.

CHALLENGES:

1. Communicating Knowledge o Communities need real access to information from research and data o Trust between communities and researchers must be rebuilt o Coordination amongst groups important o Need collaboration amongst groups that have been politically separate o Establish new channels and relationships among science / government / community o Need more cooperation and sharing of information among groups o Central location to access information for communities and scientists needed o More efficient and relevant communication of science to local communities o Compiling and making available previously documented information, i.e. last 50 years of research that’s taken place in Labrador o Identify central “clearing house” of knowledge o Difficult for researchers to communicate knowledge to communities, due to specialized knowledge, travel costs etc o Difficult for communities to come together to work for change (geographic and cultural distance between communities) o Research must be locally relevant o Have communities identify necessary areas of research o Conflict between academic model (collect data and publish) and community driven (management view of research on global warming) o Incorporating traditional knowledge and western scientific knowledge frameworks

2. Understanding changes to species that are harvested a. Observing many changes to fish, mammals and waterfowl that are harvested and to their habitat b. Need to prepare for habitat changes c. Changes in established patterns of animal behaviour d. Natural resource management and co‐management initiatives e. Planning for renewable resource management with changes from climate change

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3. Collecting long‐term environmental data a. Cataloguing and synthesizing local observations of climate and resource change and making information accessible b. Training and protocol development needed c. Communities must lead in planning and implementation d. Need broader spatial and temporal scale e. Have projects be simple and sustainable f. Long term monitoring across LB habitats g. Need standardized, coordinated monitoring programs to inform actions on climate change and improve our understanding of effects h. Developing methods / studies that can be community based

4. Uncertainty about climate change impacts a. Scientific uncertainty b. Environment no longer predictable c. How to distinguish anthropogenic from natural climate change? d. Concern about the forecast cooling of Labrador Sea e. Changes to funds available to communities for investment, due to changes in large‐scale developments (i.e. offshore oil) due to climate change f. Labrador’s place in larger climate change research projects and models, understanding what it all means locally g. Adaptation from regions to communities to individuals h. How to prioritize climate change issues? Issues beyond climate change? i. Understanding local patterns and variability in climate and resources and separating these from climate change

5. Maintaining cultural identity a. Beyond direct changes to Labrador’s culture, climate change could also lead to in‐ migration or out‐migration of population, either of which must lead to societal adaptations b. Dealing with forced cultural change superimposed over regular cultural change c. What will happen to access to traditional pursuits‐ berries, barrens d. Cultural changes due to loss of traditions e. Emotional turmoil trying to cope with loss of traditional jobs f. Loss of communities themselves (out‐migration and environmental degradation) g. Presence of new species (insects, plants) may impact traditional areas h. Loss of confidence in traditional knowledge and experience i. Knowledge gaps between elders and youth in communities‐ different ways of knowing

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6. Community education and engagement a. Identify the community needs and research groups b. Address where climate change fits within community priorities c. Memorial University should be more involved in the affairs of Labrador d. More educational facilities on Labrador soil needed e. Have northern research center in North West River with community nodes: LEAF (Labrador Ecosystem Analysis Facility) f. Lack of understanding of what impacts of climate change will be and how we can adapt g. Lack of capacity of regional governments to carry out appropriate research and understand impacts h. Expectations of the Labrador Institute are too high, given its lack of staff, but with adequate support from MUN, LHRG, Harris Centre, Aboriginal governments etc. the Institute may be able to develop relevant programming given enough time and support i. Address lack of community buy‐in to climate change action

7. Making climate change a priority regionally, nationally, and internationally a. Need to communicate the urgency of climate change to various government levels b. Need long term funding and partners c. Differing policies and penalties between countries complicate action (i.e. species management, oil dumping etc. between Canada and the US) d. Lack of provincial and federal government commitment to addressing this issue e. Challenge of costs associated with mitigation and adaptation f. Funds available to communities for investment may change due to the impacts of climate change on large‐scale development (i.e. offshore oil) g. Disproportionate effects of climate change felt by northerners, but these communities disadvantaged by small population size and political voice h. Need engagement of industry to fight climate change (acceptance of carbon tax etc) i. Must address lack of capacity of regional and municipal governments to carry out appropriate research and understand impacts j. Moving from problem identification to action

8. Travel a. Changes to sea ice, river ice, and lake ice for winter travel b. Sea ice changes will affect seal hunting as well c. More early warning detection marine devices needed d. Addressing effects of loss of snow on travel e. Waterways and extreme weather conditions‐ wind, high rivers, low rivers f. Establishment of more overland transportation routes 88 Climate Change and Renewable Resources in Labrador: Looking toward 2050

9. Health and safety a. Need relevant safety information that is timely‐ sea ice conditions, weather, travel routes b. Understanding health issues associated with climate change c. More early warning detection marine devices needed d. Addressing psychological health issues with changes and uncertainty

10. Sustainable Development a. Facilitating green technologies for communities b. Need education and people with the capacity to develop green initiatives c. More solar and wind installations needed in communities d. Getting industry to realize that climate change will influence how environmental assessments are conducted

11. Maintaining biodiversity a. Risk of species extinction and extirpation b. Need to conserve more wild places c. Changes expected in ecosystem structure and function d. Presence of new species (insects, plants) may impact traditional areas e. Invasive species will change habitats

12. Understanding cumulative impacts of issues including, and beyond, climate change a. Huge extent of the multiple issues to consider b. What are impacts of extreme events on development? c. Rivers are of particular interest d. Need to prioritize work and appropriate responses to change e. Changes happening at multiple levels

13. Changes to present and future infrastructure needs a. Adaptation of infrastructure to extreme events b. Isolated communities make it more challenging c. What are impacts on permafrost melt? d. Need to address water table changes e. Impacts of precipitation changes (i.e. less snow means severe frost)

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14. Forest health and forestry a. Impacts of new insects and disease on forests b. Tree loss

PRIORITY ACTIONS:

1. Improve collaboration amongst communities, researchers, and governments a. Establish network for streamlining and coordinating climate change priorities b. Must be driven by community initiatives c. Keep present momentum going (i.e. from this conference) d. Knowledge must be truly accessible‐ internet is not always sufficient e. Travel, consultations etc should be efficient and mindful of greenhouse gas emissions f. Formalize synthesis of information to help inform policies g. Have more collaborative meetings and research efforts h. More and improved communication i. Rebuild relationships among communities and researchers j. Study other areas for possible results k. Central data coordination l. Neutral platform

Who should take this on?

i. Communities ii. Government‐ all levels iii. Aboriginal groups iv. Labrador Institute could send representatives to communities to maintain communication and avoid some of the expense, pollution, and intensive consultation process (for both communities and researchers) of having all researchers make regular community visits to all appropriate communities v. Labrador Institute could also work to collect community thoughts‐ organized workshop for research presentation vi. IEMR (Institute for Environmental Monitoring and Research) vii. Researchers viii. Existing networks

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2. Establish monitoring programs a. Community based, long‐term b. Collect data on changing wildlife species c. Would need to involve training program d. Fill in data gaps e. Guided by community questions f. “Monitoring with direction” g. Combining data with other agencies h. Long term‐ ocean and land i. Monitor climate and ecosystem j. Increased monitoring‐ weather stations, environmental surveys k. Have small projects l. Develop protocol and database

Who should take this on?

i. Labrador Institute ii. Universities and Colleges iii. Government‐ all levels iv. Arctic Net v. Innu Nation‐ Forest guardians vi. Nunatsiavut government vii. Industry (funding support) viii. Community groups ix. Municipal governments x. Environment Canada xi. Provincial Wildlife department

3. Educate and engage communities a. Create awareness and education initiatives to demonstrate effects of climate change in Labrador b. Establish the LEAF‐ Labrador Ecosystem Analysis Facility c. Nature program for the province on television or radio d. Government needs to supply funding for paid positions e. Develop regional nature program on television or radio f. Education in new directions g. Educate local people regarding potential impacts h. Develop training / education program i. Inspire communities to care about issues 91 Climate Change and Renewable Resources in Labrador: Looking toward 2050

Who should take this on?

i. Central agency to deliver information‐ colleges, IEMR, Labrador Institute ii. Community offices iii. Memorial University iv. Provincial government

4. Prioritize our actions a. Investigate cumulative impacts b. Collect priorities from communities c. Develop strategic approaches and planning

Who should take this on?

i. New institute or consortium of institutes ii. Community governments iii. Federal and provincial government

5. Compile existing knowledge a. Collection of local and traditional knowledge b. Collect information on how communities have dealt with climate change in the past to guide future decision making c. Compile documented knowledge and collect undocumented knowledge d. Compile existing knowledge and research and bring this information back to communities e. Establish website that is community based, used by network of communities

Who should take this on?

i. Communities‐ individuals, elders, inter‐generational learning ii. Colleges and Universities iii. Governments

6. Adapt infrastructure for coming changes a. Plan for increased pressure on infrastructure b. Establish marine early warning devices for Labrador Sea and Lake Melville c. New methods of travel d. Storm walls 92 Climate Change and Renewable Resources in Labrador: Looking toward 2050

Who should take this on?

i. Community to spearhead ii. Government to fund iii. Natural Resources Canada (MEWD) iv. NL government

7. Garner funds and support for climate change action a. Direct action and education awareness campaigns, geared towards community but also geared to federal and international governments b. Attract and coordinate funds

Who should take this on?

i. Community ii. All levels of government iii. Non‐governmental organizations iv. Educators v. Industry vi. New institute?

8. Make communities more sustainable a. Make communities model for more southern, urban centres b. Increase understanding of green technologies c. Create long term, non‐funding driven vision d. Find the right people to be committed to a long term vision e. More wind and solar power research in Labrador communities f. Incorporate adaptations for climate change such as emergencies and extreme events g. Identify opportunities for green power generation h. Ensure future development in Labrador is environmentally sustainable i. Establish more energy efficient pilot projects for green energy j. Develop production of ‘value‐added’ products to reduce amount of harvesting that’s necessary for economic sustainability

Who should take this on?

i. Local communities‐ individuals and councils ii. Government programs at all levels 93 Climate Change and Renewable Resources in Labrador: Looking toward 2050

iii. Universities iv. Companies v. Regional economic development boards vi. Government representatives vii. Scientific analyzers viii. Innu government

9. Maintain conservation of ecosystems a. Spread ecosystem based management approach of Innu to protect the land b. Develop an impact assessment and implementation board or branch of government c. Revamp Canadian Environmental Assessment Agency guidelines in terms of evaluating critical effects in a changing environment d. Establish a Protected Areas Network that can support long term monitoring

Who should take this on? i. All levels of government ii. Community iii. Researchers

10. Ensure support for health and safety a. Address social and psychological effects of climate and other changes b. Establish marine early warning devises for LB Sea and Lake Melville

Who should take this on?

i. Communities ii. Local health networks

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APPENDIX IV: CONFERENCE MEDIA EXPOSURE

Much effort was put into public outreach about the conference both to encourage participation and to raise awareness of climate change issues and research in Labrador. Information was distributed to local media outlets by Memorial University’s marketing and communications departments, interested individuals and CLIMATE organizations were contacted, and invitations were sent to all CHANGE residents of North West River and Sheshatshiu in English and in Innu‐ What lies ahead aimun. for Labrador?

The following print media carried stories on the conference or the theme of the conference:

• The Labradorian • Labrador Life magazine • Northern Pen • Downhome Magazine • The Gazette‐ Memorial University Publication

Interviews with conference organizers and participants were aired on the following media programs:

• CHMR 93.5 FM ‐ Campus and Community Radio in St. John 's (March 06) • CBC Radio One 89.5 FM & 96.3 FM – Labrador (March 11, 12, 13) • OKalaKatiget Society Radio 610 AM (March 11) • CBC Radio One provincial news (March 13) • Newfoundland Television News (March 16) Climate change cover stories‐ Labrador Life (top) and Downhome, March 2008

Attached are examples of outreach and of response to the conference including a public notice and invitation, a media press release, the conference brochure, and stories from the CBC News, Memorial University, and Labrador Life magazine.

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