Israel and the Middle East News Update

Wednesday, February 22

Headlines:  Poll: 56% of Israelis Think Azaria’s Sentence Too Harsh  Egypt, Jordan: Solution Other Than Two States Dangerous for Middle East  Netanyahu Praises Trump for 'Strong Stand' on Anti-Semitism  Attorney General to Arab-MKs: I'm Against Muezzin Bill  Police Chief Urges Patience Over Umm al-Hiram Investigation  IDF Allegedly Attack Hezbollah Targets in Syria Overnight  Islamic State Affiliate in Sinai Claims Rocket Fire on Israel  Iran’s Supreme Leader Calls for Palestinian Intifada Against Cancerous Israel

Commentary:  Ma’ariv: “Eisenkot is Blocking the Ill Winds”  By Yossi Melman, Israeli Journalist Specializing in Security, Intelligence Affairs  Al-Monitor: “3 Alternatives to Two-state or One-state Solution for Peace”  By Ben Caspit, Israel Pulse Columnist, Al-Monitor

S. Daniel Abraham Center for Middle East Peace 633 Pennsylvania Ave. NW, 5th Floor, Washington, DC 20004 www.centerpeace.org ● Yoni Komorov, Editor ● David Abreu, Associate Editor

News Excerpts February 22, 2017

Ma’ariv Poll: 56% of Israelis Think Azaria’s Sentence Too Harsh More than half the Israelis believe that the sentence that was handed down to Sgt. Elor Azaria by the military court yesterday was excessively harsh, and more than two-thirds of the public support granting a pardon to the soldier who was convicted of manslaughter, according to a poll that was commissioned by Ma’ariv from Panels Politics, which is run by Menachem Lazar. Question: Elor Azaria was sentenced to a year and a half in prison. What is your opinion about that? Too severe: 56%; Appropriate: 29%; Too light: 11%; No opinion: 4%. See also, “Israel's Military Chief to Lawmakers: Don't Pressure Army on Pardoning Hebron Shooter” (Ha'aretz) See also, “Israeli Ministers Call for Elor Azaria to Be Pardoned” (Jerusalem Post)

Ha’aretz Egypt, Jordan: Solution Besides 2 States Dangerous for Region Egyptian President Abdel Fattah al-Sissi and Jordan's King Abdullah said in a Cairo meeting on Tuesday that a solution to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict not based on a two-state solution will have dangerous consequences for the region. In a joint statement, the two leaders said that establishing a Palestinian state was a national and a pan-Arab interest and that any effort to restart the Israeli- Palestinian peace process must be based on the two-state solution, which they said was the only solution to the conflict. See also, “Egypt, Jordan: Two State Non-Negotiable” (Times of Israel)

Times of Israel Netanyahu Praises Trump for 'Strong Stand' on Anti-Semitism Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu praised US President Donald Trump for condemning a recent spate of anti-Semitic incidents in the US, saying that “it is very important that President Trump took a strong stand against anti-Semitism.” Trump’s condemnation of denunciation of anti-Semitism as “horrible,” “painful” and a “sad reminder” of evil on Tuesday came after the US president faced mounting criticism from US Jewish groups for failing to explicitly denounce anti-Semitism. The US president’s comments came a day after bomb threats were issued against Jewish community centers across the United States for the fourth time in just over a month, and after gravestones were toppled at a Jewish cemetery in St. Louis. See also, “Trump: Anti-Semitism Is Horrible and It’s Going to Stop After Wave of Bomb Threats” (The Independent)

Jerusalem Post Attorney General to Arab-MKs: I'm Against Muezzin Bill Attorney-General Avichai Mandelblit opposes the “muezzin bill,” a proposal to ban religious institutions from using outdoor loudspeakers at night, he told a group of lawmakers from the Joint List on Sunday, saying he is against moving the bill forward in the Knesset. Last week, the Ministerial Committee for Legislation voted in favor of a new version of the “muezzin bill” that was submitted by MK Moti Yogev (Bayit Yehudi) and MK David Bitan (Likud). 2

Ynet News Police Chief Urges Patience Over Umm al-Hiram Investigation Police Commissioner Roni Alsheikh addressed reports Wednesday which indicate that the incident in Umm al-Hiran last month—in which a Bedouin man who police say tried to run over soldiers with his car was shot dead—will not be classified as a terror attack. "I can't be responsible for any unofficial publications. I do know with certainty, from the head of the Police Investigations Unit, that conclusions have yet to be reached," he told Ynet. He also said that rather than immediately resorting to the word "terrorist," some suspected terrorists should be described as "civilian." See also, “Bedouin Driver Shot by Israeli Police Was Not Carrying Out Attack, Probe Set to Show” (Ha'aretz)

Jerusalem Post IDF Allegedly Attack Hezbollah Targets in Syria Overnight Israeli jets allegedly struck targets near the Syrian capital overnight on Wednesday, reportedly a weapons shipment to Hezbollah. Syrian media reported witnesses hearing "loud explosion sounds" in the early morning hours. According to Lebanese media, the targets that were hit around 3.00 a.m. were affiliated with the Assad regime and were the regime army's 3rd Division in the al-Katif suburbs of the capital. The report also claimed that the IDF struck from within Lebanon, circling the Beqaa Valley and Baalbek, so as not to be blocked by the Russian defense systems operating in the area. See also, “Nasrallah Warns ‘No Red Lines’ in Next War with Israel” (Times of Israel)

Times of Israel Islamic State Affiliate in Sinai Claims Rocket Fire on Israel The Islamic State affiliate in the Sinai Peninsula took responsibility on Tuesday night for firing two rockets into Israel a day earlier. The terror group posted photos on Twitter showing jihadists preparing the projectiles for launch. The two rockets, which struck an open field in southern Israel and did not cause any damage or injuries, were fired shortly after the group accused Israel of killing five of its operatives in an airstrike Saturday. In a statement on social media, the group said it had fired two Katyusha rockets at “southern Palestine,” according to the Walla news site.

BICOM Khamenei Calls for Palestinian Intifada Against Cancerous Israel Iran’s Supreme Leader yesterday urged the Palestinians to pursue a violent uprising against Israel, which he termed a “cancerous tumour”. Speaking at a conference in support of the Palestinians, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei said: “This cancerous tumour [Israel], since its start, has grown incrementally and its treatment must be incremental too.” He added that “by Allah’s permission, we will see that this intifada will begin a very important chapter in the history of fighting and that it will inflict another defeat on that usurping regime”. Khamenei went on to explain that “multiple intifadas and continuous resistance have succeeded in achieving very important incremental goals… It continues to advance towards its other objectives, ultimately the complete liberation of Palestine”.

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Ma’ariv – February 22, 2017 Eisenkot is Blocking the Ill Winds By Yossi Melman  The most important thing in the unending saga of Elor Azaria is that after nearly a year, the sentence has been handed down at long last. Perhaps—and this is just a hope—this affair is already behind us. Although, given the statements made by the soldier’s attorneys, this may be a false hope, and the affair will yet be continued in the form of an appeal.  This began as a severe incident, albeit a small and local incident, which became for us—a bleeding and divided nation—a cosmic event. This occurred with the aid of cynical right wing politicians—Avigdor Lieberman, Oren Hazan, Miri Regev, Naftali Bennett and others—who were and are only interested in garnering more supporters in the political hunting grounds and continuing to cling to their hold on power.  This also happened because of a family whose ideology is rooted in the extreme and racist right wing of Meir Kahane and Beitar Jerusalem’s La Familia fan club. The family became a tool of the politicians and fell in love with the role of the victim, which also afforded it unprecedented attention.  The incident was amplified also, and perhaps primarily, because of ratings-hungry media outlets that asked us to hold our breath for the sentencing.  A former officer told me that he had faced a similar, though not identical, situation forty years ago, when he was charged with murdering an injured terrorist in enemy territory. “My parents didn’t whine, and didn’t even sit in the courtroom. My friends from the company were not given a chance to praise me.” After he was acquitted in court, due to the testimony of a high- ranking officer who attested to the fact that he had followed the combat doctrine, he relates that “I was acquitted without victory celebrations and applause in the courtroom and without politicians speaking.” This is how people used to behave. But Israel is no longer the country it once was.  Values and behavioral norms that are so clear cut—are being eroded. What should be evident to anyone with common sense, is becoming less clear to an increasing number of people.  Elor Azaria deserved to be punished. It was true that he was unlucky and the execution he carried out in cold blood—or more to the point, hot-bloodedly—was documented on camera. Otherwise, it is doubtful whether he would have been prosecuted. We can presume that in the reality of the occupation, in which IDF soldiers are used as police officers, and are assisted by their collaborators (there are some who might call them their masters) the settlers, there have been similar cases in the past, which received no attention from the IDF and the authorities. The sentence imposed on [Azaria] by the military court, eighteen months, is reasonable. In fact, it wouldn’t really matter had he been given a stricter or more lenient sentence. What is important is the very fact of the punishment and the message that the sentence sends.  The message is that the IDF high command believes that soldiers should act with composure, according to orders and the rules of engagement, and in the spirit of the values and combat ethics.

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 This approach is inspired by the courageous chief of staff, Lt. Gen. Gadi Eisenkot, who is trying to shield the IDF against the ill winds that are blowing throughout the country, and seeking to gain a deep foothold in the army. If not for the unequivocal and moral behavior of Eisenkot and the IDF General Staff, the IDF is liable to turn into a gang of militias. Yossi Melman is an Israeli journalist and writer who specializes in security and intelligence affairs. He is a recipient of the Sokolov Prize, Israel's highest award for journalist and Nieman Fellow at Harvard. His latest book which he co-authored with CBS News Reporter Dan Raviv is "Spies Against Armageddon: inside Israel's Secret Wars.

Summary: Elor Azaria deserved to be punished. It was true that he was unlucky and the execution he carried out in cold blood—or more to the point, hot-bloodedly—was documented on camera. Otherwise, it is doubtful whether he would have been prosecuted. We can presume that in the reality of the occupation, in which IDF soldiers are used as police officers, and are assisted by their collaborators (there are some who might call them their masters) the settlers, there have been similar cases in the past, which received no attention from the IDF and the authorities. The sentence imposed on [Azaria] by the military court, eighteen months, is reasonable. In fact, it wouldn’t really matter had he been given a stricter or more lenient sentence. What is important is the very fact of the punishment and the message that the sentence sends.

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Al-Monitor – February 20, 2017 3 Alternatives to Two-state or One-state Solution for Peace By Ben Caspit  “I'm looking at two states and one state, and I like the one both parties like. I can live with either one.” US President Donald Trump’s statement at a joint press conference with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu Feb. 15 in the White House is still making waves in the Middle East and Israel.  True, two high-level American officials (UN Ambassador Nikki Haley and David Friedman, the designated ambassador to Israel) have made it clear that the United States continues to support the two-state solution. However, what was said cannot be taken back and the Israeli political system is in an uproar. Very few on the Israeli right support one state in which all citizens, Israeli and Palestinian (both from Gaza and the West Bank), can vote and have equal rights. Among them, only President Reuven Rivlin believes that all Palestinians should get equality and full voting rights. Others feel that the Palestinians should instead have the right to vote in elections to the Jordanian parliament. One way or another, most of the Israeli population does not support the one-state idea.  Is there any other option aside from two states or one? Israel has been wrestling with this issue ferociously this past week. Everyone is talking about new, “out of the box” ideas. There are currently three main ways to square the circle and bypass the quagmire of negotiations between Israel and the Palestinians. o A “regional peace process” instead of bilateral Israeli-Palestinian negotiations. o The confederation with Jordan idea, newly resuscitated. o Trilateral land swaps involving Israel, Egypt and Palestine or even a four-way exchange including Jordan.  Many swear by the so-called regional process, the term used by those who are afraid of negotiations with the Palestinians. Defense Minister Avigdor Liberman has been preaching about it for years, Yesh Atid Chair Yair Lapid supports it, Netanyahu talks about it and Zionist Camp leader Isaac Herzog dreamed about it in the period when he was negotiating with Netanyahu over joining the government.  To illustrate how fallacious this idea is under the current circumstances, I present the following vignette that — according to a high-ranking Israeli politician speaking on condition of anonymity — was told by former Prime Minister Ehud Olmert: “In the middle of May 2008 I hammered out the basic principles on which I was prepared to conduct negotiations with the Palestinians. These were a Palestinian state on the basis of the 1967 lines with land swaps, two capitals in Jerusalem including international trusteeship over the Holy Basin and Israeli sovereignty over the Western Wall, the refugee problem would be resolved in the framework of the 2002 Arab Peace Initiative recommendation and the Palestinian state would be fully demilitarized. Then-British Prime Minister Gordon Brown heard about this plan and was enthusiastic. He told me that he talked about it with Saudi Arabia's king, and the king told him that if Olmert would publicly make a statement about this plan, he would pressure the Palestinians into saying yes. 6

 I told Brown that I was definitely taking him up on the offer and I delivered a speech with the basic principles of my plan. But then it turned out that the Saudi king got cold feet. Suddenly, after I’d carried out my part of the deal, he backed out.”  The lesson from this story is clear: There is no way to bypass negotiations with the Palestinians, whether the talks with them are direct or indirect. And not the Arab League nor any other Arab forum would agree to sit with Israel in the same room before this issue is resolved or a formula is found that would placate the Palestinians and include the 1967 lines.  And now, the Israeli right is disputing this principle, pinning its hope on the terror that Iran is sowing in the Sunni Arab countries. Those close to Netanyahu, Liberman and other right- wingers say that if Trump meets the Saudis and Persian Gulf states halfway on the Iranian issue, those countries will do their part on the regional issue. But this hope took a battering when Michael Flynn was removed from the position of national security adviser. The chances of Trump successfully reopening the nuclear agreement with Iran are slim, and the chances of carrying out the grandiose regional peace plan without the Palestinians are even slimmer.  The confederation idea was first raised by President Shimon Peres in the London Agreement he made with King Hussein in 1987. According to this plan, Hussein agreed to take responsibility over the territories and associated population and sign a peace agreement with Israel. But the prime minister at the time, Yitzhak Shamir, torpedoed the agreement. Now there are those in Israel who would like to convince Jordan’s King Abdullah II to create a type of confederation with the West Bank: Israel would continue to have security control over the territory while Abdullah would receive full civil control over Area A (now under full Palestinian control) and parts of Area B (under Israeli security control and Palestinian civil control), while the Palestinian residents would vote in Jordan's parliamentary elections. The odds of this happening are similar to the odds of Trump agreeing to help Europe by absorbing all the refugees from Syria and from the Middle East.  We are left with the land exchange plan, a term that usually refers to Liberman’s famous political program. However, there are a number of alternate plans, some of which are fascinating and even rational (which, sadly, ensures that they will never come to fruition in the Middle East). The most well-defined and cohesive is the one developed by well-known Israeli geographer Yehoshua Ben-Arieh. His plan became a pet project of Maj. Gen. (Res.) Giora Eiland, who had served as head of the National Security Council.  Under this plan, Israel would move the border between it and Egypt by a few hundred meters northward, along a strip of land of hundreds of kilometers long. In exchange, Egypt would give the Palestinians a long strip of land as an extension of Gaza, greatly enlarging the living space of the densely crowded Strip. In exchange for this territory, the Palestinians would allow Israel to annex the Jewish settlement blocs in the West Bank. Jordan could also be included in the deal: Israel would contribute some land in the northern border triangle to Jordan, and Jordan would transfer land directly to the Palestinians. Then the Palestinians would waive additional settlement bloc territories to Israel.  At the time that this plan was presented to Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak, he almost threw the Israeli representatives out of his office. Egypt will not forfeit one grain of sand from the Sinai Peninsula, he said. However, much has changed since then.

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 Now Sinai is inundated with Islamic State fighters, Mubarak is no longer president and the Middle East is in the midst of an upheaval.  Will it be possible to think outside the box about a territorial exchange plan? First, someone had better explain the principles of this plan to Trump. Ben Caspit is a columnist for Al-Monitor's Israel Pulse. He is also a senior columnist and political analyst for Israeli newspapers and has a daily radio show and regular TV shows on politics and Israel.

Summary: The lesson from this story is clear: There is no way to bypass negotiations with the Palestinians, whether the talks with them are direct or indirect. And not the Arab League nor any other Arab forum would agree to sit with Israel in the same room before this issue is resolved or a formula is found that would placate the Palestinians and include the 1967 lines.

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