DISSERTATION ASSESSMENT PROFORMA: Empirical 1

Cardiff School of Sport DISSERTATION ASSESSMENT PROFORMA: Empirical 1

Student name: Jake Fairhurst Student ID: St20034110

Programme: SPE

Dissertation title: An analysis and comparison of possessions between a top, middle and bottom placed team in the Barclays Premier League.

Supervisor: Adam Cullinane

Comments Section Title and Abstract (5%)

Title to include: A concise indication of the research question/problem. Abstract to include: A concise summary of the empirical study undertaken. Introduction and literature review (25%)

To include: outline of context (theoretical/conceptual/applied) for the question; analysis of findings of previous related research including gaps in the literature and relevant contributions; logical flow to, and clear presentation of the research problem/ question; an indication of any research expectations, (i.e., hypotheses if applicable). Methods and Research Design (15%)

To include: details of the research design and justification for the methods applied; participant details; comprehensive replicable protocol. Results and Analysis (15%) 2

To include: description and justification of data treatment/ data analysis procedures; appropriate presentation of analysed data within text and in tables or figures; description of critical findings. Discussion and Conclusions (30%) 2

To include: collation of information and ideas and evaluation of those ideas relative to the extant literature/concept/theory and research question/problem; adoption of a personal position on the study by linking and combining different elements of the data reported; discussion of the real-life impact of your research findings for coaches and/or practitioners (i.e. practical implications); discussion of the limitations and a critical reflection of the approach/process adopted; and indication of potential improvements and future developments building on the study; and a conclusion which summarises the relationship between the research question and the major findings.

1 This form should be used for both quantitative and qualitative dissertations. The descriptors associated with both quantitative and qualitative dissertations should be referred to by both students and markers. 2 There is scope within qualitative dissertations for the RESULTS and DISCUSSION sections to be presented as a combined section followed by an appropriate CONCLUSION. The mark distribution and criteria across these two sections should be aggregated in those circumstances.

Presentation (10%)

To include: academic writing style; depth, scope and accuracy of referencing in the text and final reference list; clarity in organisation, formatting and visual presentation

Cardiff Metropolitan University Prifysgol Fetropolitan Caerdydd

Certificate of student By submitting this document, I certify that the whole of this work is the result of my individual effort, that all quotations from books and journals have been acknowledged, and that the word count given below is a true and accurate record of the words contained (omitting contents pages, acknowledgements, indices, tables, figures, plates, reference list and appendices). I further certify that the work was either deemed to not need ethical approval or was entirely within the ethical approval granted under the code entered below.

Ethical approval code: ______exempt______(enter code or 'exempt') Word count: 8,885 Name: Jake Fairhurst Date: 19/03/2015

Certificate of Dissertation Supervisor responsible I am satisfied that this work is the result of the student’s own effort and was either deemed to not need ethical approval (as indicated by 'exempt' above) or was entirely within the ethical approval granted under the code entered above. I have received dissertation verification information from this student

Name: Jake Fairhurst Date: 19/03/2015

Notes: The University owns the right to reprint all or part of this document.

CARDIFF METROPOLITAN UNIVERSITY Prifysgol Fetropolitan Caerdydd

CARDIFF SCHOOL OF SPORT

DEGREE OF BACHELOR OF SCIENCE (HONOURS)

SPORT AND PHYSICAL EDUCATION

2014-5

An analysis and comparison of possessions between a top, middle and bottom placed team in the Barclays Premier League.

Performance Analysis

Jake Fairhurst

St20034110

Table of Contents Page No: Acknowledgments 1

Abstract 1

CHAPTER ONE: Introduction 2

1.1 Association Football 3

1.2 Principles of Play 3

1.3 Barclays Premier League 3

1.4 Hypotheses 3

CHAPTER TWO: Literature Review 4

2.1 Performance Analysis in Football 5

2.2 Match Analysis 6

2.3 Feedback 6

2.4 Hand Notation vs. Computerised Notation Analysis 7

2.5 Operational Definitions 8

2.6 Validity and Reliability 9

2.7 Performance Indicators 9

2.8 Attacking Styles of Play 10

2.9 Rational for the Study 11

2.10 Aim of the Study 13

CHAPTER THREE: Methods 14

3.1 Computerised Notation System 15

3.2 Equipment 15

3.3 Data Collection and Sample 16

3.4 Operational Definitions 17

3.5 System Design 22

3.6 Procedure 25

3.7 Pilot Study and Reliability Testing 25

3.8 Data Processing and Analysis 29

CHAPTER FOUR: Results 30

4.1 Breakdown of Possessions 31

4.2 Origins of Possessions (General) 32

4.3 Origins of Possessions (Specific) 35

4.4 Possession Types 36

4.5 Possession Ends 37

4.6 Breakdown of Outcomes and AoT Ratio 38

CHAPTER FIVE: Discussion 40

5.1 Introduction 41

5.2 Discussion of Findings 41

5.2.1 Breakdown of Possessions 41

5.2.2 Origins of Possessions (General) 42

5.2.3 Origins of Possessions (Specific) 43

5.2.4 Possession Types 44

5.2.5 Possession Ends 45

5.2.6 Breakdown of Outcomes and AoT Ratio 46

5.3 Implications of Findings 47

CHAPTER 6: Conclusion 48

6.1 Sample Issues 49

6.2 Conclusions of the Study 49

6.3 Recommendations for Future Research 50

REFERENCES 51

Page No:

Appendices 56

Appendix A: Reliability tests (Kappa Statistic).

List of Tables

Page No:

Table 1. Matches used for match analysis. 16

Table 2. Operational Definitions. 17

Table 3. Mean numbers of possessions and overall percentage breakdown of 35 possessions originating in each specific zone.

Table 4. Mean breakdown of outcomes per game for all three teams. 38

List of figures

Page No:

Figure 1. Stuidiocode coding template. 24

Figure 2. Chain of notation. 27

Figure 3. Reliability of recorded data. 28

Figure 4. Mean number of possessions (±sd) per game for each team. 31

Figure 5. Percentage breakdown of overall positive/negative outcomes. 31

Figure 6. Mean number of possessions (±sd) and percentage breakdown 32 of possession origins.

Figure 7. Positive and negative outcomes from Defensive Zone. 33

Figure 8. Positive and negative outcomes from Pre Attacking Zone. 33

Figure 9. Positive and negative outcomes from Attacking Zone. 34

Figure 10. Pitch illustration to support table. 35

Figure 11. Percentage breakdown of possession types per game for each 36 of the three teams.

Figure 12. Percentage breakdown of where possessions ended per game 37 for all three teams.

Figure 13. Mean attempts at goal per game and AoT ratio. 39

Acknowledgments

I would like to thank Adam Cullinane for his time and assistance throughout the dissertation process.

Abstract The aim of the study was to compare and analyse possessions between a top, middle and bottom placed team in the Barclays Premier League to assess any differences in style of play. Post-match analysis of 18 matches involving Manchester City, Newcastle United and Cardiff City was carried out on the 2013/14 Barclays Premier League season, using Studiocode to code every possession for each team within the 6 matches. Kappa reliability tests were conducted to the system which calculated a good strength of agreement. From the research study the following findings were found, Manchester City on average had the highest amount of possessions per game, they were the best at converting possessions they had from the defensive zone into positive outcomes, and Manchester City typically looked to play the ball in behind the most. Cardiff City on average looked to play the ball long the most, they scored the least goals and possessed the worst positive to negative ratio regarding outcomes. Finally regarding Newcastle United, looked to cross the ball and knock the ball long more frequently than Manchester City, had the greatest amount of possessions originate in the defensive zones and possessed the best AoT ratio. Implications of findings were identified relative to, informing team selections and coaching sessions and understanding differences in style of play between a top, middle and bottom placed team.

CHAPTER ONE Introduction

1.1 Association Football The most important date in relation to the game football we know and love today is the 26th of October 1863, which is widely understood to be the day that the Football Association was created and the modern game played today was born (Slade, 2013). Association football refers to a sport which has two teams with 11 players with the main aim of each team trying to score more goals than the other in order to win, in order to score a team needs possession of the ball, further highlighting that scoring is a direct result of attacking play (James, Jones & Mellalieu 2004).

1.2 Principles of Play Wade (1996) suggested principles of play in which he notes that in order to be successful in football in terms of attacking and defending these principles should be employed. Attacking principles include, width, improvisation, mobility, penetration and support. Defensive principles referred to, delay, concentration, balance and control, with depth sitting under both elements of play.

1.3 Barclays Premier League The Barclays Premier League is a professional football league containing the top 20 teams in England. It was formed in 1992, and is watched globally week in week out.

1.4 Hypotheses Prior to the research study being carried out, due to research being carried out around the surrounding literature, the following predictions have been made:  The top team will typically adopt a possession based style  The bottom team will look to employ a more direct approach  The top team will have the most number of possessions per game  The top team will score the most goals  The top team will typically get in behind the defence the most  The bottom team will have the most possessions break down in front of the defence  The bottom team will lose possession the most

CHAPTER TWO Literature Review

2.1 Performance Analysis in Football Over the years performance analysis has come to have a greater role to play within football, particularly, with the continuing development of technology enabling performance analysts to gather a greater amount of data more easily and efficiently within a 90 or 120 minute match. Specifically performance analysis allows a team to identify key strengths and weaknesses of a particular performance, it can be used to analyse previous games of an upcoming opponent to assess their style of play and their strengths and weaknesses and can also be used to analyse whether a training programme has been effective in improving performance within a match (Carling, 2005).

In order to gather a greater idea of what is required in order to be successful in sport, match analysis has found itself to have a very important role in sports games. Within football a performance can be defined by the various technical, tactical, mental and psychological interactions that can take place within a match (Sarmento, 2014).

Charles Reep is recognised as the first person to create a notational analysis system for football, he did so at a Swindon Town home match versus Bristol Rovers on the 18th March 1950 with just a pencil and a notebook (Pollard, 2002). Following this Reep recognised how the information he was collecting could be used to analyse performance and devised a strategy, he then became the first professional performance analyst compiling the first scientific paper to apply statistical analysis to football. With this developed interest in the analytical aspects of football and his meticulous attention to detail was the perfect combination to develop a hand notation system, which would look to code every on-the-ball action within a football match. This system which Reep had developed himself and put in place by the end of 1950, was to remain with no amendments for over half a century, in which he had recorded nearly 2500 games with (Pollard, 2002).

Olsen and Larsen (1997) conducted a study and found that nearly all premier league teams within Norway used some form of match notational analysis in one way or another and considering the position of Olsen as head coach of the Norwegian national team gives reason to believe that there is truth in what he said.

Blaze et al. (2004) more recently found that of 10 premier league who responded to a questionnaire, 9 of them used either hand or computerised notation analysis on all 36 games they played in the premier league. Reilly et al. (1993) noted that a vast majority of coaches and managers have created systems to garner important data on sports performance, moreover they he highlights many coaches and managers decided on developing hand notation systems because it is the most readily available method and produces instant but limited data.

2.2 Match Analysis Match analysis within the field of performance analysis is used to provide immediate feedback to either an individual on their performance or a team, and can also provide the coach of either the individual athlete or team greater detail of their performance. Hughes (1996) the four main purposes of match analysis. 1. Analysis of movement 2. Technical evaluation 3. Tactical evaluation 4. Statistical compilation

Analysis of movement refers to the measurement of velocities, the time spent of different activities of performance and finally individual work rates. Secondly, Technical evaluation is the quantification and assessment of technical skill. Next, tactical evaluation concerns itself with the assessment and the qualification of tactical skills within a match. Finally Statistical compilation is the combination of both tactical and technical information which is then to be the subject of quantitative evaluation.

2.3 Feedback Today performance analysis is widely recognised as a crucial part of the coaching process, and with this recognition there has been a vast increase in the amount of performance analysis research been conducted. Further, the introduction of video and computer technology into sport enabling video review sessions of performance, has meant many coaches, athletes and sports scientists hold the belief that performance analysis has a vital input in the feedback process (McKenzie & Cushion 2012).

In recent times with the ever growing technology becoming available to us, a significant amount of coaches of a range of sports have begun to turn to performance analysis to aid the feedback process. Specifically these coaches have turned to performance analysis to support decision making and coaching because performance analysis provides is an efficient way of providing reliable accurate information which coaches can use to assess an individual or team sports performance (Peters & O’Donoghue (2014). Further, Peters & O’Donoghue (2014) state that with the reliable accurate information performance analysis can provide if done correctly, coaches can not only use the information to assess an individual or team sports performance but can then use that relevant information and transcribe It into relevant feedback and devise specific technical and tactical training programs to improve negative elements of performance and to maintain positive elements of performance. James, Jones & Mellalieu (2004) noted that feedback provided directly from notational analysis is a key component for improving performance.

2.4 Hand Notation vs. Computerised Notation Analysis Initially Hughes & Franks (2004) imply that notational analysis primarily refers to the analysis of movement, technical and tactical evaluation and the compilation of different statistics, further, highlighting that notational analysis is a technique for analysing the vast aspects of play which may be present in sports performance through means of producing a permanent record of events.

Computerised systems have been used for performance analysis since PC’s (Personal computers) became available. Notational analysis has welcomed the vast advantages that computers have brought and as a rule has kept in touch with technological advances within the electrical industries, receiving benefit from developments in video and computing the ease the processes of data collection and data analysis within notational analysis (Hughes & Franks, 2007). Moreover, with the ever increasing availability of computer facilities overcame the problem of notational analysis having to be done by hand, as with advances in computer technology and the availability of these technologies, a sports performance could be digitally represented via data collection directly to a computer, removing the problem of numerous sheets of paper to code one match or performance (Hughes & Franks,

2007). Finally in particular team sports such as Rugby and Football have the potential to benefit greatly from the advances in computerised notation, in terms of acting as a support to a coach to improve performance. Furthermore Franks et al. (1983) suggests several purposes that the information gathered from a computerised system can be used for: 1. Immediate feedback 2. Development of a database 3. Indication of areas that require improvement 4. Evaluation 5. As a mechanism for selective searching through a video recording of the game

The development of computer and video aided analysis systems such as Studiocode, has enabled performance analysts to attain greater resources in order to analyse sports performance objectively, and as a result research regularly utilises these data systems. Following their development many of these video analysis systems have been used for a vast amount of research purposes in a variety of individual and team based sports (McKenzie & Cushion 2012).

2.5 Operational Definitions O’Donoghue (2004) provided the point that prior to a research study being conducted it is vital for the system operators and the eventual consumers of the study have a shared understanding of the variables and their meanings. Furthermore O’Donoghue (2004) highlights the fact that within structures research studies there are three types of variable which can be present and these are nominal, ordinal or numerical, in the case of a nominal variable referring to positional role within soccer O’Donoghue notates that unlike netball where positional roles are clearly visible by use of bibs, in soccer various teams use different types of formations and playing styles making positional role a complex factor to classify. As with the concept of ‘total football’ widely evident within the modern game today players can perform multiple roles meaning the variable positional role can be very fluid. He goes on to say that positional role can further change throughout a match depending on the situation, whereby a centre back may end up playing as a centre forward as his team may

8 require an equaliser in the last 5 minutes of a match. Therefore posing the question does the switch from centre back to centre forward part of the role of a centre back?

2.6 Validity and Reliability In reference to quantitative research the concept of reliability looks to determine to what extent a piece of data or a measurement is consistent throughout, however, in the case of qualitative research reliability would focus on the issues of credibility, transferability, dependability and conformability of the data produced, credibility would imply internal validity, transferability external validity, dependability or consistency is similar to replication and reliability of the data and conformability suggests objectivity of the observer (Hernan & Schwartz, 2009).

Following reliability validity would typically be understood as the extent to which the findings from a research study have a direct correlation to an objective population of people, or whether the instrument accurately measures what it was assumed to measure (Hernan & Schwartz, 2009).

As with anything errors can occur when conducting a research study, and in several pieces of academic literature these errors are classified into two category’s systematic and random. Systematic errors or as it’s otherwise known systematic bias is concerned with the possibility of an operator of a computerised notational system to record a higher value than another operator as perceptions between different individuals can fluctuate (O’Donoghue, 2007). Random errors are relatively self- explanatory they refer to individual perceptual errors, data entry errors or when the operator becomes fatigued.

2.7 Performance Indicators Following the development of performance analysis systems for sport a researcher would need to make decisions about performance indicators to be used. A performance indicator is an objectively measured performance variable or a combination of these performance variables (Hughes & Bartlett, 2002). O’Donghue (2008) stated that with every performance indicator chosen by the research author and operators, there are associated action variables which that need to be entered when the subsequent system is in action, In example he highlights, consider a

9 system for the analysis of a tennis performance, an indicator that might be of interest could be the percentage of points won where the first serve was in, therefore in order to code this performance indicator each point would need to be classified as originating from the first serve or requiring a second serve.

Research by Choi (2008) explained that the selection of key performance indicators is paramount in the development of real-time analysis systems. Furthermore, various methods have been suggested for the selection of appropriate key performance indicators (Choi, 2008), these include expert coach opinion, regression analysis, neural networks and inferential statistical tests which look to determine the performance indicators that distinguish most between winning and losing performances(O’Donoghue, 2008).

Alberti et al. (2013) conducted a study which selected goal scoring patterns as a performance indicator, The study looked to compare and examine these patterns in four major European leagues these been the English Premier League, French Football Ligue 1, Italian Serie A, And the Spanish Football La Liga, Over the seasons 08-09, 09-10 and 10-11. Following chi square tests conducted their study found that a significantly (p < 0.001) higher goal scoring frequency in the second half of a match (55.1%) than the first half (44.9%). Furthermore 15-min interval analysis showed that a significant (p < 0.001) upward trend in the amount of goals scored as time progressed (13.7, 15.1, 16.2, 17.7, 17.2 and 20.2 %, for 0-15, 15-30, 30-45, 45-60, 60-75 and 75-90 intervals respectively). In summary the main finding of this study is that within the four major European leagues investigated the amount of goals scored is greater in the second half, with the goals typically been scored in the last 15 minutes of the second half.

2.8 Attacking Styles of Play In a recent post by Riccardo Marchioli (2014), the author highlights that within the last 18 months there has been an evolutionary trend within football, possession based but with a high importance placed on verticality, the pioneer of this new trend described as being the ‘right’ way to play football was implemented by Marcelo Biesla in his time with the Chilean national team. Verticality is described as being a mix of direct and possession play, placing the focus on an attack minded style of

10 play unlike styles in recent years where the emphasis was on moving the ball in a controlled way, however with the style known as ‘Verticality’ passing the ball sideways is discouraged, and should only be passed sideways when the aim is to move the opposition out of their defensive shape and create space to make a pass forward. To simplify, if there is space to play a forward penetrative pass, then you play a forward penetrative pass.

Due to the huge success of Barcelona and Spain in particular there has been a notable shift toward possession based philosophies, however various enthusiastic coaches implemented these philosophies too heavily with some games with these coaches in charge turning into boring contests because although teams were happy to keep the ball for long periods of time, there was no intent looking to break the lines and showcase exciting offensive football, this style of play is actually what the widely known term tika-taka refers to with it actually been derogatory in Spain, with big names such as Pep Guardiola who is quoted as saying “I hate just passing the ball around the back for the sake of it, that kind of tiki-taka” (Marchioli, 2014).

There is an argument in favour of possession football which says that in implementing a possession based philosophy you are increasing the likelihood of selecting successful passing options within the final third, therefore further implying that if a team introduces a possession style they are more likely to create chances which can be converted into goals as a result of the possession football increasing the likelihood of selecting successful passing options. Moreover, it is said to be a quality over quantity approach, promoting the use of skilful players, as opposed to more athletic players which are typically associated with the overly direct style of play also known as ‘Route one’ (Marchioli, 2014).

2.9 Rationale for the Study A study by Jocelyn et al (2012) analysed all teams competing In the Australian W- League, specifically looking at their attacking play as a performance indicator and highlighting which methods of play (attacking strategies) lead towards the most goal- scoring opportunities, and from which area of the pitch. This article portrays some similarities to the research question as it analyses elements of attacking play such as long and short passing, corners and free kicks etc… However this research question

11 is not looking at the specific strategies which lead to the most goal-scoring opportunities, but is analysing the characteristics of possessions and the differences between a top, middle and bottom placed team in the Barclays Premier League. Secondly, the article by Jocelyn et al (2012) looked at top level Women’s soccer in Australia, whereas the research question for this dissertation will look at top levels men’s soccer in the Barclays Premier League. A final difference between the two study’s is that the purpose of the study by Jocelyn et al (2012) was to analyse attacking strategies and where the majority originated from between all teams in the respective league, whereas, the purpose of the research question for this dissertation is to analyse and compare the characteristics of possessions between a top, middle and bottom placed team, showing what sets the teams apart. Furthermore, in looking at successful attacks instead of goal-scoring opportunities, the data produced would provide a better reflection of how a team was performing as a team may of entered the oppositions penalty area a number of times in Jocelyn et al (2012)’s study but may not of been coded as a goal-scoring opportunity, whereas looking at successful attacks provides a broader range of indicators which would be deemed as a successful attack, such as winning a corner or free kick for example.

A study by Espitia-Escuer and Garcia-Cebrian (2004) involved all teams competing in the Spanish first division and conducted a research study to see if there was a direct correlation between converting attacking passages of play and success in terms of league position. Espitia-Escuer and Garcia-Cebrian (2004) conducted the study over a 3 year period between the years 1998-2001. Their study involved carrying out a data envelopment method which took input variables such as players used, attacking moves, duration of possession, number of shots and number of headers output then been the amount of points gained over a complete season. This study by has a same generic aim as the research question for this dissertation as the overall aim of both study’s is to look at success. However, the study by Espitia- Escuer and Garcia-Cebrian (2004) analyses attacking play and other indicators to see if there is a direct correlation between these and success within the respective league, which in this case was the Spanish first division. However the study that this dissertation is based around, looks to specifically analyse a ‘successful attack’ between a top middle and bottom placed team in the Barclays Premier League. The study will not only look to analyse the obvious, such as the amount of successful

12 attacks between the three differently place teams, but it will also compare, contrast and analyse selected performance indicators such as, short passes, long passes, shots and crosses etc.. which will then provide data to show how a top, middle and bottom placed team tends to attack, further highlighting generally the best way to play in attacking terms to be successful.

2.10 Aim of the Study Many research studies such as the ones noted in the preceding paragraph by Jocelyn et al (2005) and Espitia-Escuer and Garcia-Cebrian (2004) have looked to analyse styles of play in terms of attacking, however, there seems to be a lack of current literature on the top flight of English men’s football highlighting a need within the academic market for this research study. Not only does their seem to be a lack of literature regarding the top flight of English men’s football, there also seems to be a lack not only in current research but also of previous research, looking to compare a top, middle and bottom placed team’s attacking styles and whether from this data it can be determined that a particular style is likely to bring more success than another.

CHAPTER THREE Methods

3.1 Computerised Notation System initial design ideas were jotted onto a piece of paper whereby they were then dissected and assessed to see if they were appropriate in order to gather the required data, after this they were transferred into a coding template on Studiocode. The software’s flexibility allowed the creation of a bespoke template suitable for data collection. All footage was supplied by the Centre for Performance Analysis at Cardiff Met.

3.2 Equipment In order to gather the data required for the research study the following equipment was central to this process. The equipment included:  Apple iMac with StudioCode Version 5 Analysis Software  Microsoft Excel  SPSS Version 22  WD External Hard Drive 500GB  Optima USB Flash Drive 16GB

3.3 Data Collection and Sample All matches used were from the Barclays Premier League season 13/14, with the sample of matches’ selected around the research question, therefore three teams of perceived differing strength/quality were selected based on their final league position. The teams were Manchester City (Top – 1st), Newcastle United (Middle - 10th) and Cardiff City (Bottom - 20th). This was decided upon because this would provide the fairest and greatest range of data as each team which was selected for the sample would play a team at the top middle and bottom, therefore playing a various quality of oppositions.

Manchester City Newcastle United Cardiff City

Man City vs Liverpool 2-1 Newcastle vs Liverpool 2-2 Cardiff vs Liverpool 3-6

Liverpool vs Man city 3-2 Liverpool vs Newcastle 2-1 Liverpool vs Cardiff 3-1

Man City vs Newcastle 4-0 Newcastle vs Crystal Palace Cardiff vs Crystal Palace 0-2 3-0

Newcastle vs Man City 2-0 Crystal Palace vs Newcastle Crystal Palace vs Cardiff 3-0 1-0

Man City vs Cardiff 4-2 Newcastle vs Cardiff 3-0 Cardiff vs Fulham 3-1

Cardiff vs Man city 3-2 Cardiff vs Newcastle 1-2 Fulham vs Cardiff 1-2

12 points from a possible 18 13 points from a possible 18 6 points from a possible 18

Table 1. Matches which were used for the analysis

3.4 Operational Definitions Operational definitions Method of starting and in some cases restarting play in association football. A kick-off is used to start each half of play, each period of extra time if needed and Kick off after any goal is scored. Kick-off is always taken from the centre circle and the ball must be played forward for play to begin. A tackle in association football is a method of using physical contact to contest for the ball with the primary aim Tackle of dispossessing an opponent, or preventing an opponent gaining ground towards goal. To intercept in association football is the method of reading an opposing player’s pass and subsequently winning Interception possession for your own team by stopping the ball reaching its intended target. A goalkeeper in association football is the player who’s playing area generally consists of the penalty area, and key responsibilities involve preventing the Goalkeeper ball from crossing the defended goal line by blocking attempted shots with any part of their body, the goalkeeper is allowed to play the ball anywhere on the field but must not handle the ball outside the

penalty area. A set piece within association football is an instance where the ball is returned to Set piece open play following a stoppage, set pieces refer to corners and free kicks. A throw in is a method of restarting play when the ball has exited either side of the play, the subsequent throw in is taken from the point where the ball left the field of play. Finally in terms of Throw in delivering the ball, a thrower must face the field of play have both feet on the touch line or the ground proceeding it, and use both hands to deliver the ball from behind and over their head. A blocked shot is an action by a defender Blocked shot whereby they have used a part of their body to block a goal bound shot. A rebounded shot is a shot that was on target and has come back off the frame Rebounded shot of the goal, hitting either the post or the crossbar. An attempt on target within association football is a player that uses any part of their body lawfully allowed within football Attempt on target to try and score a goal, and the resulting attempt was on target meaning either the ball was saved by the goalkeeper or rebounded off the frame of the goal. An attempt off target within association football is a player that uses any part of Attempt off target their body lawfully allowed within football to try and score a goal, and in this case

the resulting attempt was off target meaning there was no threat to the goal. A blocked attempt within association football is a player using any part of their body lawfully allowed to try and score a Attempt blocked goal, however in this instance the attempt was stopped early in its flight toward goal. A goal in association football is the sole method of scoring and beating an Goal opponent and refers to the instance when the ball crosses the defending team’s goal line. A free kick is a method within association football of restarting play when a foul has been committed or when a player has been given offside, the resulting outcome Free kick is that a player has a ‘free kick’ of the ball with no pressure allowed on him apart from players that can be stood 10 yards away. Similarly to a free kick, a corner is also a method of restarting play in association football. A corner kick is awarded to an attacking team when the ball leaves play Corner crossing the defending teams goal line when a defending team player touched the ball last. The resulting kick is taken from the corners of the pitch in whichever half is being attacked. A penalty is a form of direct free kick Penalty taken from 12 yards out on the marked out penalty spot. A penalty is awarded to

the attacking team when foul is committed on them within the defending teams penalty area, also known as the 18 yard box. A loss of possession is an instance where the team in possession of the ball lose the ball and it is now in possession Lost possession of the other team. Typically when possession it is lost the general causes would be a misplaced pass, or losing the ball through been tackled. Build up play is as a style of play where Build up multiple short passes are completed before an eventual outcome. Long ball is also as a style of play, however this style doesn’t include multiple short passes, and the long ball Long ball style of play involves the ball being played long, generally from the defenders up to the strikers. A counter attack is an instance when a team wins the ball either high up the pitch or back in their own half when the opposing team has committed a high Counter attack amount of players, and involves the team who won the ball travelling up the pitch with speed, typically in less than 10 seconds before an outcome, with minimal passes. ‘In front’ refers an area where the play In front broke down or ended. So ‘in front of the defence’. In behind ‘In behind’ refers to an area where the

play broke down or ended. So ‘in behind the defence’. In association football a cross is a medium to long pass which originates from a wide area of the field towards the Cross centre of the field near the opponent’s goal, normally the defending teams penalty area. Ratio of attempts on target. Calculated AoT ratio using attempts on target and attempts off target. Table 2. Operational Definitions

3.5 System Design In creating, developing and using a coding template the collection and editing of the specific match footage based on selected performance indicators is possible. In order to conduct this a coding window must be completed, containing various buttons and links which are set up and programmed in multiple ways.

Code toggle buttons are identified by a red diamond identifier at the top right hand side of the button as seen in Fig 1. The possession button is a code button, however this button is only selected or turned on when an origin of possession is initially first determined, following this, the possession button is then only turned off when a possession type and possession type outcome is determined.

In contrast to code buttons, text label buttons can be identified by their blue circle identifier at the top right hand corner of the button again this can be seen in Fig 1. Differently to code buttons these buttons are used to code what action was performed and where and whether this was positive or negative. Instances of when the possession button is pressed were highlighted earlier. The mechanics of how this is done through the means of activation and deactivation links. These links are evident throughout the coding window and are used to gain a range of information from different buttons at one time. Within this specific code window there are various origins and outcomes of possession so therefore once an origin of possession is selected the possession button is activated, similarly once an outcome of a possession and type of possession is determined and selected the possession button would be deactivated. Another example within the coding window of activation and deactivations links, would be, when an outcome of possession is selected either the positive or negative button will be activated, depending on which outcome was selected.

Fig 1. Studiocode, coding template. 24

3.6 Procedure Each game acting as part of the analysis was loaded into Studiocode from the WD external hard drive ready to be analysed. The following process was followed in relation to each possession of the selected sample teams using the same created code window to ensure all data collected was the same. 1. Origin of possession 2. Area of pitch in which possession started 3. Outcome of possession 4. Area of pitch in which the outcome took place 5. Possession type 6. Possession type outcome

See fig 2.

Following on from a game being coded all data derived from the analysis is shown on a timeline, so then it is possible to view all the data gathered in the matrix. In order to extract the data required for the analysis a Matrix Organiser allowing the various variables to be selected. Finally once this is done the matrix can be copied into Microsoft Excel for initial analysis.

3.7 Pilot Study and Reliability Testing The notational system was piloted on a 20 minute clip of England versus Ukraine from Euro 2012. Following this various faults with the system became clear. Specifically changes needed to be made to some of the operational definitions and some buttons needed adding. Following the pilot buttons corresponding to shot on and off target were changed to attempt on target and off target because sometimes it may be a header which clearly is not a shot, also buttons in relation to outcomes of possession were added as instances of attempts or goals direct from set pieces were not catered for previously.

The reliability testing for the research study was conducted on 90 minutes of England versus Germany in the 2010 world cup, with coding taking place on the first half twice. The test chosen in order to assess reliability was Kappa. Kappa reliability testing determines the amount of cases which the independent agreed excluding the

25 possibility of agreement by chance, therefore which makes Kappa a useful reliability statistic which can be used within the notational analysis of sport (O’Donoghue and Robinson, 2007).

The range of Kappa values can be seen below in fig 3. In examining the scores they would indicate that the reliability of the notation system is fairly high as the majority of scores sit between (0.8-1.0), which in reference to this reliability test is considered a good strength of agreement.

3. Select outcome of possession, which activates 2. Select area of pitch either positive or negative possession began. button.

1. Select origin of possession.

4. Select area of pitch, in which 5. Select possession type. 6. Select possession type Fig 2. Chain of notation. the possession ended. outcome.

Possession end

Possession type

Outcome area

Positive/Negative

Outcome of possession Performance Indicators Performance

Zone outcome

Origin of possession

0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1 Kappa Score

Fig 3. Reliability of recorded data.

3.8 Data Processing and Analysis Once all coding is completed, the data gathered will be opened into a spreadsheet of raw data. Following this, all data will be selected a placed into a pivot table to allow the comparison of various different variables and performance indicators. Then, this specific data will be pasted into new spreadsheet, where means, standard deviation and percentages will be calculated where applicable, producing information which can then be arranged into graphical format formulating descriptive statistics, which will be placed into the results section of this dissertation and act as the basis for the discussion.

CHAPTER FOUR Results

In order to explore the hypotheses highlighted within the introduction, the results have been compiled in descriptive graphical and table format.

4.1 Breakdown of Possessions

160

140 120 100 80 60 121 115 109 40

Possessions of Number Mean 20 0 Manchester City Newcastle United Cardiff City Teams

Fig 4. Mean number of possessions (±sd) per game for each team. Figure 4 displays mean number of possessions (±sd) per team, Manchester City have both the highest mean value and ±sd.

Manchester City 74.7 25.3

Newcastle United 76.6 23.4

Teams

Cardiff City 77.0 23.0

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% Positive to Negative %

Positive Negative

Fig 5. Percentage breakdown of overall positive/negative outcomes. Figure 5 highlights the mean percentage breakdown of positive to negative outcomes for the top (Manchester City), Middle (Newcastle United) and Bottom (Cardiff City) placed teams, not much difference is seen in the overall breakdown.

4.2

Defensive Pre Att Att Zone Zone Zone

Mean Mean Mean 78.2 ±15.8 23.8 ±8.1 17.6 ±3.3

63.4% 17.8% 14.4%

Origin of Possessions (General)

Defensive Pre Att Att Zone Zone Zone

Mean Mean Mean 83.2 ±6.4 16.3 ±5.8 12.8 ±5.6 Defensive Pre Att Att 73.2%Zone 14.2%Zone 11.2%Zone

Mean Mean Mean 71.3 ±5.7 20.0±4.3 15.7 ±2.3

32 65.7% 18.4% 14.4%

Fig 6. Mean number of possessions (±sd) and percentage breakdown of possession origins.

Figure 6 shows the mean number of possessions (±sd) for each team originating in the Defensive, Pre Attacking and Attacking zone. The overall percentage breakdown of attacks is also included, this demonstrates that Newcastle United begun the greatest amount of attacks from the Defensive zone.

Manchester City 23 77

Newcastle United 21.1 78.9 Team

Cardiff City 17 83

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% Percentage %

Figure 7. Positive and negative outcomes from Defensive Zone

Manchester City 21.2 78.8

Newcastle United 34.1 65.9 Team

Cardiff City 26.7 73.3

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% Percentage %

Figure 8. Positive and negative outcomes from Pre Attacking Zone.

Manchester City 46.3 54

Newcastle United 31.9 71.7 Team

Cardiff City 46.3 54.7

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% Percentage %

Figure 9. Positive and negative outcomes from Attacking Zone.

Figure 7, 8 and 9 depicts information of a similar nature to figure 6 regarding the origins of possessions in respect to specific areas on the pitch, conversely figure 7, 8 and 9 provide the data as a mean percentage showing the percentage of positive and negative outcomes which originate in each zone for each team per game. From figure 7, 8 and 9 it is evident that on average Manchester City have the best positive to negative ratio regarding attacks originating in the defensive zone, Newcastle United have best ratio for possessions originating in the pre attacking zone, and finally Cardiff City marginally harness the greatest ratio for possessions originating in the attacking zone.

4.3 Origins of Possession (Specific)

Manchester City Newcastle United Cardiff City Mean Mean % Mean Mean % Mean Mean %

Def Deep 47.3±137 38.3% 59.2±10.4 51.9% 45.7±8.5 42.0%

Defensive 29.5±6.0 24.8% 24.7±5.3 21.6% 27.5±5.1 23.7%

Att Left 6.9±1.5 6.5% 4.5±2.3 3.7% 6.0+2.3 6.7%

Att Centre 5.5±5.7 1.0% 3.6±3.5 1.1% 4.8±4.7 1.1%

Att Right 7.3±3.5 7.4% 6.4±3.6 6.1% 7.5±1.8 6.6%

Table 3. Mean number of possessions and overall percentage breakdown of possessions originating in each specific zone.

Attacking Left

Defensive Defensive Attacking Centre Deep

Attacking Right

Figure 10 - To support the table above.

Table 3 identifies the mean number of possessions (±sd) for each team which originated in the Defensive Deep, Defensive, Attacking Left, Attacking Centre and Attacking Right zones. From the above data it can be seen that Newcastle united on average begin the highest amount of possessions in the Defensive Deep zone, Manchester City have the greatest amount of possessions originating in the Defensive, Attacking Centre, Attacking Left zones, and finally that Cardiff City’s greatest number of possessions come from the Attacking Right zone.

Manchester City 66.8 27.1 5.9

Newcastle United 58.5 37.2 3.4 Team

Cardiff City 56.1 41 2.6

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% Percentage %

Build up Long ball Cross 4.4 Possession Types Fig 11. Percentage breakdown of possession types per game for each of the three teams.

Figure 11 presents data in graphical format relative to the average number of possession types per game for each team. Figure 10 portrays the data as a percentage, which upon inspection it can be understood that Manchester City employ a build-up and counter attacking style more frequently, whereas Cardiff City and Newcastle united look to play the ball long more frequently.

Manchester City 67.2 16.1 16.6

Newcastle United 72.6 9.8 17.6 Team

Cardiff City 73.9 7.4 18.6

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% Percentage %

In front In behind Cross 4.5 Possession Ends Fig 12. Percentage breakdown of where possessions ended for all three teams.

Figures 12 displays data relative to the mean number of possessions per team per game. Figure 12 presents the data as a percentage concerning itself with where the possession broke down e.g. in front of the defence, in behind the defence or from a cross. From looking at figure 12 there is minimal difference between all three teams in terms of where possessions ended, but it can be seen that Manchester City on average did slightly get in behind the defence more regularly than the other 3 teams and Newcastle United crossed the ball into the box more frequently than the other three.

4.6 Breakdown of Outcomes and AoT Ratio

Manchester City Newcastle United Cardiff City Mean Mean Mean

Attempt on target 4.7±3.1 4.5±2.5 3.6±2.2

Attempt off target 5.7±1.8 5.3±2.0 7.0±2.7

Attempt blocked 3.7±1.4 3.0±2.2 2.8±2.1

Goal 2.7±1.0 1.6±1.0 2.0±1.2

Corner 6.7±1.9 5.3±2.6 4.0±1.3

Free kick 7.3±5.5 7.2±1.2 7.3±1.0

Penalty 0.0±0.0 0.2±0.4 0.0±0.0

Lost possession 90.5±14.8 87.7±5.9 83.7±10.4

Table 4. Mean breakdown of outcomes per game for all three teams.

Table 4 highlights the average number for each outcome per game for each of the three times, also highlighting the standard deviation figure for all of them. From the above graphs it can be understood that Manchester City on average have the most attempts on target and blocked, goals and corners but all lost possession the most. Newcastle United won the greatest amount of penalties, with Cardiff City topping the list for attempts off target, and finally, in reference to free kicks there is very little variation between all three teams.

15 50 44.7 42.4

14 40

13 27.6 30

Mean

Mean Attempts 12 14.00 20 AoT Ratio 12.83

11 10 11.83

10 0 Percentage % Manchester City Newcastle United Cardiff City

Figure 13. Mean attempts at goal per game and AoT ratio.

Figure 13 indicates differences in the number of attempts per game per team, and their relevant AoT ratio. From the above figure it is easily seen that Manchester City have the most amount of attempts per game with 14, followed by Newcastle United who typically have 12.8 attempts at goal per game, and finally Cardiff City who achieve 11.8 attempts usually.

CHAPTER FIVE Discussion

5.1 Introduction The current research study has made it possible to assess styles of play that the selected three teams typically employ, and various possession statistics such as the origins and outcomes of possessions. The ability to attain these results is largely down to the methodological design of the coding template, and the use of commercial match analysis computer package which provided a specific set of data which provided a variety of results to analyse. Finally the results gathered from the research study has enabled the initial aim of the study to be met, to compare and analyse possessions between a top, middle and bottom placed team in the Barclays Premier League.

5.2 Discussion of Findings

5.2.1 Breakdown of Possessions Figure 4 provides data relative to the mean number of possessions for each team, whereas figure 5 provides a percentage breakdown of positive to negative outcomes for each team. Comparing the three teams, differences in positive to negative ratio are evident. Cardiff City surprisingly having the best ratio (77% positive 23% negative) closely followed by Newcastle United (76.6% positive 23.4% negative), with Manchester City having the worst ratio (74.7% positive 25.3% negative). However, although it seems that Cardiff City withhold the best ratio, if figure 3 is taken into consideration figure 4 may read differently. Figure 4 highlights a large variation in the average number of possessions each team has per game, Manchester City typically having 121 possessions per game, Newcastle United 115 and Cardiff City a mere 109, therefore for Manchester City to only be 2.3% off Cardiff City in terms of positive to negative outcomes when having on average 12 more possessions per game, their ratio may be considered better.

Reasons as to why Manchester City have a similar positive to negative ratio but typically have more possessions per game could be related to what better teams of a league tend to do with the ball when they have possession. It is widely understood that the top teams from all professional football leagues generally look to dominate possession and keep the ball, placing high importance on not giving the ball away by playing the ball forward unnecessarily to force goal-scoring opportunities. Adams et al. (2013) highlighted that dominating ball possession within football matches is paramount to the success of the top teams in the Barclays Premier League. The study found that successful passes made by defenders were the biggest contributor to the final result of a game, and the successfulness of midfielders passes in the oppositions half being the second highest

42 contributor. This reinforces the belief that typically teams at the top have better players therefore are able to keep the ball better, which could explain the similarity in positive to negative outcomes between the three teams in this study as Manchester City would usually look to keep the ball and not force it forward, as, maintaining the ball via short passes would allow an attacking team to move opponents around the pitch and wait for attacking opportunities to emerge (Adams et al. 2013).

5.2.2 Origin of Possessions (General) Figure 6, 7, 8 and 9 illustrate for the origins of possessions in each general zone (Def, Pre Att, Att) for each of the three teams. Specifically figure 6 present’s data relative to the mean number of possessions which originate in each of the zones. From inspecting figure 6 it is identifiable that Newcastle United begun on average 83.8 possessions from the defensive zone, in comparison to Manchester City with 78.2 and Cardiff City 71.3. Additionally, with regard to the pre attacking zone Manchester City began on average the most amount of possessions from this zone with an average of 23.8 possessions typically starting in this zone, In contrast to Cardiff City who had 20.0 possessions in this zone and Newcastle United 16.3. In reference to the attacking zone, Manchester City again had on average the highest amount of attacks originate in the attacking zone with an average of 17.6 possessions, followed by Cardiff City with 15.7 Newcastle United with 12.8.

However, just because a team possesses the stat for the most amount of possessions beginning in that zone, it doesn’t directly correlate to a greater positive to negative ratio for that particular zone, as figure 7, 8 and 9 highlights. Initially from figure 7 it can be seen that Manchester City actually have the best positive to negative ratio (23% positive 77% negative) for the defensive zone despite having the second best mean number of possessions per game for that zone. This therefore highlighting the influence of high quality of players and the ability to pass in tight areas, as although Newcastle United begin the most amount of possessions in the defensive zone, the figures suggest that they may not have the player quality of Manchester City to turn those possessions into positive outcomes as well as Manchester City. Spain highlighted in the 2010 world cup the importance of high quality players and the ability to pass in tight areas, as it was made up mainly of Barcelona players who were considered the best at this time, and maintained a possession percentage of 64% up until the quarter finals, in which they subsequently brought the trophy home (Fontevecchia, 2014). Further, in terms of Manchester City beginning a greater amount of possessions in the pre attacking and attacking zones in comparison to Newcastle United and Cardiff City, this could be explained in terms of

43 playing style or a tactic employed by the manager, looking to press teams higher up the pitch to force a mistake or win the ball off the opposing team to turn the ball over. Again similar to the previous point, just because Manchester City are effective at winning the ball higher up the pitch, this doesn’t mean that they are effective at converting those possessions won high up into positive outcomes as figure 8 and 9 highlight. Newcastle United have the best positive to negative ratio for the pre attacking zone (34.1% positive 65.9% negative), and Cardiff City display the best for the attacking zone (46.3% positive 54% negative), which would therefore highlight that both Newcastle United and Cardiff City when they win the ball in zones higher up the pitch are more adept at counter attacking than Manchester City, this could be because of possibly possessing quicker more direct wide players who are able to utilise these opportunities more effectively than the typical creative midfielders than Manchester City are renown for having. Speed of players is crucial in counter attacking football, as without speed a defending team is able to regain position and prevent the subsequent counter attack (Luchessi, 2004).

5.2.3 Origin of Possessions (Specific) Table 3, with support of figure 10 displays information regarding, the mean number of possessions originating in each specific zone (Def Deep, Def, Att Left, Att Centre, Att Right. Table 3 similarly to figure 7 demonstrates that Newcastle United comfortably initiated the greatest amount of their possessions in the defensive deep zone with an average of 59.2, in comparison to Manchester City who had on average 47.3 possessions originating in this zone and Cardiff City who begun just 45.7 possessions in that zone. Correspondingly with Newcastle United starting the most amount of attacks in the (general) defensive zone, them beginning the most in the (specific) defensive deep zone, could also be explained in terms of specific players and their quality. Their dominance in these defensive zones could be because of them having Yohan Cabaye, largely considered by many as Newcastle’s best central midfield player, who was known for picking the ball up deep and beginning attacks. Although they did lose him in January of the season used for this research study, the data sample contains four out of six games, in which Cabaye played in.

Table 3 further highlights that Manchester City started the most number of possessions in the attacking zone with an average of 5.5 possessions, the attacking left zone averaging 6.9 possessions per game and the second best in the attacking right zone with an average of 7.3 possessions originating in this zone. High mean numbers in terms of the attacking zones would suggest an assertive pressing tactic is being employed looking to force

44 opponent’s back toward their own goal, attempting to turn the ball over. Lyons (2011) identifies that assertive pressing by the attacking team would lead to the regaining and retaining of possession which is an important source of goal scoring opportunities, further suggesting that a pressing tactic brings success as Manchester City display high means in attacking zones, and they were the subsequent league champions of the 2013/14 season which was used for this study.

5.2.4 Possession Types Figure 11 provides a percentage breakdown of possession types for each of the three teams. As earlier highlighted by Adams et al. (2013) dominating the ball and keeping possession is crucial to success in the premier league, therefore, as Manchester City are renown for being a successful team over the past few seasons it would be expected of them to employ a build-up style of play the majority of the time as this style of play places high importance on keeping the ball, in which they do as 66.8% of their possessions are of the build-up type. Whereas, Newcastle United looked to employ this style of play 55.8% of the time and Cardiff City only 56.1% of the time.

Unlike build-up play, stats regarding the long ball style are considerably different as Cardiff City and Newcastle United look to impose this style a lot more frequently as on average Cardiff played the ball long 41% of the time, and Newcastle United 37.2% of the time, in comparison to Manchester City who only looked long 27.1% of the time. Differences in possession types, can be explored in relation to particular player type and attributes. For a majority of their history Newcastle United have been known for having big strong number 9’s priding themselves on holding the ball up and strong centre forward play, this could be the reasons why they looked to play long more often than Manchester City as they have players with this particular skill set in their squad, whereas, in contrast Manchester City generally look to employ a build-up style as in recent seasons, they have been known to include various creative midfield players that can keep the ball well and pass in tight areas, highlighting a point of playing to your advantages and what players you have. In a recent article by Tweedale (2015), Manchester United were being criticised for hitting the ball long and playing unattractive football nothing like the Manchester United of old, sharing stats relevant to long balls with Burnley FC a bottom club in the Barclays Premier League, and Metz who are in the relegation places of Ligue 1. However, they are currently sitting in a top four spot vying for a place in the champions league, as in recent matches of the 2014/15 season they have being utilising the players such as Marouanne Fellaini who is known for his height and power.

5.2.5 Possession Ends Figure 12 demonstrates differences in respect to where or how the possession broke down between all three teams. Like many other of the figures present in this study figure 12 presents the data as a percentage for each possible outcome. From looking at the figure it can be learnt that 73.9% of Cardiff City’s possessions broke down in front of the defence, comparative to 72.6% of Newcastle United’s and 67.2% of Manchester City’s. Moreover, in terms of possessions breaking down in behind the defence Manchester City withhold the best percentage with 16.1% of their possessions breaking down in behind, comparative with 9.8% of Newcastle United’s and 7.4% of Cardiff City’s. These results provide further insight into how the three teams look to play. Cardiff City’s high percentage in terms of possessions breaking down in front of the defence, coupled with low percentage of possessions breaking down in behind the defence, may suggest that they don’t possess the players with passing ability to breakdown opposition defences and subsequently get in behind. The ability to pass and get in behind defences is the foundation to any team strategy, the ability of knowing when and where to pass is crucial to any team’s success (Hargreaves & Bate, 1990). In contrast Manchester City’s high percentage of possessions could be down to players with better passing ability than Cardiff City and Newcastle United or a striker that is willing to consistent runs in behind the oppositions defence. Wade (1996) highlights mobility and penetration as being two key principles in terms of attacking and looking to get in behind defensive lines, which would have been implemented by Manchester City successfully in order to have such a high percentage of possessions ending in behind the defence.

To conclude this section crosses accounted for 18.6% of Cardiff City’s possessions, 17.6% of Newcastle United’s possessions and 16.6% of Manchester City’s possessions, identifying that Manchester City looked to cross the ball the least, which may be because they are typically a team who doesn’t possess wingers who like to cross the ball, usually they play creative midfielders or wingers who like to dribble and play intricate one two’s in and around the opposition penalty area. Whereas, Newcastle United usually play a powerful striker which crosses would be ideal for perhaps explaining the reasoning for them crossing the ball more often.

5.2.6 Outcomes, Attempts at goal and AoT ratio Table 4 brings attention to the breakdown of each specific outcome for each team per game. With Figure 13 highlighting information relating to attempts at goal and AoT ratio. The data present in both table 4 and figure 13 is displayed as mean numbers. From table 4 it can be learnt that Manchester City possess the best averages for, attempts on target (4.7), attempts off target (5.7), attempts blocked (3.7), goals (2.7), corners (6.7) and free kicks (7.3). Manchester City’s domination in respect to the breakdown of outcomes, can be discussed again in relation to the style of play they typically look to implement in comparison to the other two teams. An article by Morgans et al. (2014) conducted a study examining eleven championship players who played the majority of the games for that season, to assess any differences in technical or tactical performance. They found that over the season possession statistics remained consistent throughout the season with distance covered calculated to be less when the team was in possession of the ball, therefore highlighting that maintaining possession during matches would reduce physical demands and help preserve players for performance throughout a season. As Manchester City typically do look to maintain possession in all of their games, this may explain why they typically have the most attempts at goal, goals, corners and free kicks, and subsequently are considered a successful team at the end of the season, because in maintaining possession of the ball they are able to produce a higher quality of performance more frequently.

Further examination of goals scored in table 4 provides interesting reading, as Cardiff City on average actually score more goals per game with a total of 2, comparative to Newcastle United who only average 1.6 despite finishing the season in a considerably worse league position. Concentration and stability are key principles of defence (Wade, 1996) without these principles implemented it makes it easier for teams to break the defensive structure down and ultimately leads to conceding more goals, this may be the case for Cardiff City as although they are averaging more goals than Newcastle United there league position is still considerably worse, this may be because of underlying problems with team shape when not in possession of the ball. Team shape, along with tactical knowledge of roles and responsibilities in terms of defending is vital in order to be successful in football (Wymer, 2004).

To finish the final figure, figure 13 displays information regarding attempts at goal and an AoT ratio (attempts on target ratio). The figure presents the information in chart format showing detail relevant to the mean number of attempts at goal and the percentage of those attempts which were attempts on target.

From looking at figure 13 as expected Manchester City have the most attempts at goal recorded (14), followed with Newcastle United (12.8) and finally Cardiff City (11.8). However, if the AoT ratio is examined for each of the teams it shows that Newcastle United attain the greatest AoT ratio with 44.7% of their total attempts being on target, closely followed by Manchester City where 42.4% of their total attempts were on target, and Cardiff City having the worst AoT ratio with a poor percentage of 27.6% of their attempts being on target. Newcastle United having the best AoT ratio could be relevant to having a particular striker in form, for the 6 games which were selected for this research study, as if this figure was repeatable over a whole season it could be expected than Newcastle United would be the top placed team and not Manchester City. In order to allow peak performance and to subsequently be in form, it is essential for coaches and managers to allow players or individual athletes to express themselves in their sporting field, instilling the belief that there is faith in their ability, thus giving confidence which is key in achieving peak performance (Hackfort & Tenenbaum, 2006).

As a concluding point in relevance to all of the above sections the quality of opposition, and influence of match location in terms of home and away fixtures could have had a determining effect upon all data gathered. Taylor et al. (2008) found that performance was generally improved when teams were playing at home and when teams were playing weaker opposition, whereas, when playing away from home or playing against stronger opposition teams typically performed worse, highlighting the importance of considering match location and quality of opposition when conducting a performance analysis study in football.

5.3 Implications of Findings In terms of implications, the research study would provide information to inform team selections and coaching sessions, relevant to how goals are typically scored in open play between a top, middle and bottom placed team, and therefore can be used to improve the goal-scoring ability of the less successful teams. In turn, coaches and players may therefore plan and practice scoring strategies more effectively (Tenga and Sigmundstad,

2011). Furthermore, the research study would highlight typically what a ‘successful’, ‘moderately successful’, and an ‘unsuccessful’ team typically play like.

CHAPTER SIX Conclusion

6.1 Sample Issues Issues that consistently occur in match analysis research are relevant to the size of the sample selected for the specific research study. Earlier comments in the methodology stated that the sample size selected for the study was deemed appropriate and acceptable. The study used 18 matches, 6 games for the top team (Manchester City), middle placed team (Newcastle United) and the bottom placed team (Cardiff City). However, Potter and Hughes (2000) note issues with sample size, they suggest in order to create an accurate model for comparison with future performance a big sample size is needed. It is evident within this research study as all data gathered and presented throughout the study there was little variation in terms of numbers between all three of the teams.

6.2 Conclusions of the Study In conclusion the aim of the study was to compare and analyse possessions between a top, middle and bottom placed team in the Barclays Premier League to assess any differences in the way these teams look to play.

The results derived from the study highlighted clear differences in the way a team placed at the top, middle and bottom in the Barclays Premier League typically like to play. Initial differences were identified in mean number of possessions, with Manchester City having the greatest amount per game, further differences were found relevant to origins of possessions, highlighting that although Manchester City didn’t start the greatest amount of possessions in the defensive areas of the pitch as expected, they were best at turning the possessions they did have in these area into positive outcomes. In contrast, from the results it became clear that Manchester City had a higher number of possessions originating in the attacking and pre attacking areas of the pitch suggesting a tactic looking to pressure opponents into mistakes, whereas in contrast Newcastle United had possessions originating in the defensive zones more frequently which could suggest they look to sit off teams as maybe they don’t possess the same quality of player as Manchester City.

Furthermore, Manchester City typically looked to play the ball in behind the most, this could be because typically they have creative players who are adept in passing the ball, and they have strikers who are willing to make runs in behind the defence. A point relating to player quality could further explain why Cardiff City, looked to play the ball long the most, had the least attempts at goal, scored the least goals and possessed

51 the worst positive to negative ratio regarding outcomes, as maybe they didn’t have midfielders with the ability to break defences down with intricate passing which would lead the goal-scoring opportunities to improve these figures.

Moreover, Newcastle United typically looked to cross the ball in more frequently, and knock the ball long in comparison to Manchester City, which may be because in their history they are known to have big powerful number 9’s, in which crosses and long balls would be more suited.

Finally other differences between the three teams, could be explained in relevance to key players who could have been missing in particular games, as they were sold in the January transfer window as the sample of games for this study contained games before and after the January transfer window.

6.3 Recommendations for Future Research Although the research study does provide clear information regarding the differences in possessions between a top, middle and bottom placed team in the Barclays Premier League, there are still areas in which could be improved for future research, these include:  Compare the data using statistical testing methods such as SPSS to highlight any differences between the teams statistically, as the current study only provides descriptive statistics.  Assess a greater amount of games for each team, perhaps a season to highlight clearer differences between the three teams.  Look to compare the data of the top middle and bottom teams in the Barclays Premier League, with the top, middle and bottom teams of other top footballing countries such as the French Ligue 1, German Bundesliga, Italian Serie A and Spanish La Liga, similar to the work of Alberti et al. (2013)

REFERENCES

Adams, D. Morgans, R. Sacramento, J. Morgan S. Williams, M. (2013). Successful short passing frequency of defenders differentiates between top and bottom four English Premier League teams. International Journal of Performance Analysis in Sport. 11 (16), 653-668.

Alberti, G. Iaia, M. Arcelli, E. Cavvagionni, L. Rampinini, E. (2013). Styles of play in major European soccer leagues. Sport Sciences for Health. 9 (3), 151-153.

Blaze, A., Atkinson, G., Harwood, C. and Cale, A. (2004). Prevalence and perceptions of performance analysis in the English Premier Association Football League. In: Performance Analysis of Sport V (Edited by Hughes, M), Centre for Performance Analysis, University of Wales Institute, Cardiff, pp. 79-83.

Choi, H. (2008), Definitions of performance indicators in real-time and lapse-time analysis in performance analysis of sports, PhD Thesis, UWIC, Cardiff, UK.

Carling, C. et al., 2005. Handbook of Soccer Match Analysis. Oxon: Routledge.

Espitia-Escuer, M. García-Cebrián, L. (2004). Measuring the Efficiency of Spanish First- Division Soccer teams. Journal of Sport Economics. 5 (4), 329-330.

Fontevecchia, A. (2014). The End Of The Beautiful Game: World Cup 2014 Is Killing Attacking Soccer. Available: http://www.forbes.com/sites/afontevecchia/2014/07/03/the- end-of-the-beautiful-game-world-cup-2014-is-killing-attacking-soccer/. Last accessed 16th Mar 2015.

Hackfort, D. Tenenbaum, G (2006). Essential Processes for Attaining Peak Performance. Aachen: Meyer & Meyer Verlag. 27-42.

Hargreaves, A. Bate, R. (1990). Passing. In: Skills & Strategies for Coaching Soccer. 2nd ed. London: Human Kinetics. 55-57.

Hernan, P. Schwartz, C. (2009). Reliability and validity. Library and information research. 31 (2), 73-74. Hughes, M.D. (1996). Notational Analysis. In T. Reilly (ed) Science and Soccer. London: E. & F.N. Spon, pp. 343-362.

Hughes, M. Bartlett, R. (2002). The use of performance indicators in performance analysis. The Journal of Sport Sciences, 20, 739-754

Hughes, M. Franks, I. (2007). An overview of the development of notational analysis. In: The Essentials of Performance Analysis: An Introduction. London: Routledge. 59-60.

Hughes, M. and Franks, I.M. (2004). Literature review. In: Notational analysis of sport second edition: Systems for better coaching and performance in sport. (Edited by Hughes, M. and Franks, I.M.), Routledge: London, pp. 59-106.

Jones, P.D. James, N. Mellalieu, S.D. (2004). Possession as a performance indicator in soccer. Internal Journal of Performance Analysis in Sport. 4 (1), 98-99.

Jocelyn, M. Wheeler, K and Lyons, K. (2012). Attacking Strategies That Lead to Goal Scoring Opportunities in High Level Women's Football. International Journal of Sports Science and Coaching. 7 (3), 565-567.

Lucchesi, M. (2004). Important tactical principles for counteracting your opponents' system. In: Transitio & Counter Attacking: A Tactical Analysis. Spring City: Reedswain. 1- 19.

Lyons, K. (2011). Goal Scoring in Association Football: Charles Reep.Available: http://keithlyons.me/blog/2011/02/28/goal-scoring-in-association-football-charles-reep/. Last accessed 15th Mar 2015.

Marchioli, R. (2014). Why verticality is the next revolution in football's tactical cycle. Available: http://leopoldmethod.com.au/why-verticality/. Last accessed 15th Jan 2015. McHugh, M. (2012). Interrater reliability: the kappa statistic. Biochemia Medica (Zagreb). 22 (3), 276-282.

McKenzie, R. Cushion, C. (2013). Performance analysis in football: A critical review and implications for future research. Journal of Sports Sciences. 31 (1), 639-642.

Morgans, R. Adams, D. Mullen, R. McLellan, Williams, M. (2014). Technical and physical performance over an English Championship League season. International Journal of Sport Science and Coaching. 9 (5), 1033-1042.

O'Donoghue, P. (2007). Reliability Issues in Performance Analysis. International Journal of Performance Analysis in Sport, 7, 35-48.

O'Donoghue, P. (2008). Principal Components Analysis in the selection of Key Performance Indicators in Sport. International Journal of Performance Analysis in Sport. 8 (3), 145-155.

O'Donoghue, P. (2009). Measurement issues in performance analysis. In: Research Methods for Sports Performance Analysis. London: Routledge. 173-174.

O'Donoghue, P. (2009). Specifying the research question. In: Research Methods for Sports Performance Analysis. London: Routledge. 89-90.

Olsen, E. and Larsen, O. (1997), Use of Match Analysis by Coaches, In Science and Football III (Eds: Reilly, Bangsbo and Hughes), London: E & FN Spon, pp. 209-220.

Pollard, R. (2002). Charles Reep (1904-2002): pioneer of notational and performance analysis in football. Journal of Sports Sciences. 20 (10), 853-854.

Potter, G. and Hughes. M. (1999). Modelling in competitive sports. In Hughes (ed) Notational Analysis of Sport III. Cardiff: UWIC. pp. 67-83.

Peters, D. O'Donoghue, P. (2014). Performance Analysis and Coaching. In: Performance Analysis of Sport IX. London: Routledge. 3-4.

Reilly, T. Hughes, M. and Lees, A. (eds). (1993). Science & Racket Sports I, London: E. & F. Spon

Sarmento, H. Marcelino, R. Anguera, T. Campanico, J. Matos, N. Leitao, J.C. (2014). Match analysis in football: A systematic review. Journal of Sports Sciences. 32 (20), 1831- 1843.

Slade, M. (2013). The Birth of the Football Association Cup. In: The History of the English Football League: Part one--1888-1930. London: Strategic Book Publishing. 3-4. Taylor, J. Mellalieu, S. James, N. Shearer, D. (2008). The influence of match location, quality of opposition, and match status on technical performance in professional association football. Journal of Sports Sciences. 26 (9), 885-895.

Tenga, A. Sigmundstad, E. (2011). Characteristics of goal-scoring possessions in open play: Comparing the top, in-between and bottom teams from professional soccer league. International Journal of Performance Analysis in Sport. 11 (8), 545-552.

Tweedale, A. (2015). Manchester United are a long-ball team. But they hit the most accurate long balls. Available: http://www.theguardian.com/football/blog/2015/feb/10/manchester-united-long-ball-team- west-ham-sam-allardyce. Last accessed 16th Mar 2015.

Wade, A. (1996) Principles of Team Play. Spring City: Reedsmain.

Wymer, P. (2004). Coaching Tactics. In: Coaching Soccer Tactics: An Essential Resource for Coaches, Teachers, Players and Spectators. London: Soccertactics.com. 17-19.

APPENDICES

APPENDIX A

Reliability test results (Kappa Statistic).

Origin of Possession

Zone Outcome

Outcome of Possession

Positive/Negative Outcome

Outcome Area

Possession Type

Possession End