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Rental Market Analysis & Development Planning Study

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Rental Market Analysis & Development Planning Study RENTAL MARKET ANALYSIS & DEVELOPMENT PLANNING STUDY Park Forest, Illinois Prepared for the Village of Park Forest September 2019 2 INTRODUCTION In late May of 2019, the Village of Park Forest, Illinois engaged Development Planning Partners to investigate the Village rental housing market and to provide development planning guidance for several key Village-owned sites located in the DownTown, 211th Street Metra Station, and former Hidden Meadows Golf Club areas. The following report provides our findings and conclusions regarding area rental market trends and current conditions together with our assessment of rental housing development potentials within the three subject site areas. The timeframe analyzed for the purpose of our investigation was the near- to mid-term (generally speaking, one to five years). The report further provides guidance and recommendations for the development and pricing of new rental product deemed to have measurable levels of market support. The Village of Park Forest should be proud of its many accomplishments. Working together, the residents of Park Forest have adopted a series of visionary plans and policies that set the stage for new investment in their community. Our work on this assignment has aimed at providing a set of market- based “starting points” to guide future efforts to spur rental housing development – a logical next step for the Village on the path to accomplishing the goals of achieving housing balance and building a foundation for community growth. In providing this guidance, it is our hope that Park Forest can further capitalize on past efforts and look forward to a bright future. 3 TABLE OF CONTENTS INTRODUCTION ......................................................................................................................................................................................................................3 TABLE OF CONTENTS........................................................................................................................................................................................................... 4 LIST OF FIGURES......................................................................................................................................................................................................................5 RENTAL MARKET ANALYSIS & DEVELOPMENT PLANNING STUDY.....................................................................................................................6 Background to the Assignment.....................................................................................................................................................................................6 Summary of Findings ........................................................................................................................................................................................................9 Background to the Market ............................................................................................................................................................................................ 11 Rental Market Conditions..............................................................................................................................................................................................19 The DownTown Submarket: Findings & Strategy ...............................................................................................................................................24 211th Street Metra Station TOD Site: Findings & Strategy ................................................................................................................................ 27 Hidden Meadows Site: Findings & Strategy..........................................................................................................................................................30 Product Guidance & Market Support.......................................................................................................................................................................32 APPENDIX A: Analysis of Rental Housing Demand Potential..............................................................................................................................36 APPENDIX B: Data Tables ................................................................................................................................................................................................38 APPENDIX C: Assumptions & Limiting Conditions..................................................................................................................................................44 4 LIST OF FIGURES Figure 1: Subject Site Orientation.....................................................................................................................................................................................7 Figure 2: Park Forest Primary Market Area.................................................................................................................................................................12 Figure 3: Population by PMA place...............................................................................................................................................................................12 Figure 4: Population comparison, Park Forest and PMA .......................................................................................................................................12 Figure 5: Median age by place........................................................................................................................................................................................13 Figure 6: Population by age, Park Forest.....................................................................................................................................................................13 Figure 7: Median household income by housing tenure.......................................................................................................................................13 Figure 8: Workers in Park Forest by place of residence .........................................................................................................................................13 Figure 9: Change in workers flows, Park Forest.........................................................................................................................................................14 Figure 10: Occupancy characteristics ............................................................................................................................................................................14 Figure 11: Vacant units by status, Park Forest.............................................................................................................................................................14 Figure 12: Change in households by tenure...............................................................................................................................................................15 Figure 13: Household size by tenure.............................................................................................................................................................................15 Figure 14: Housing units by tenure and units in structure, Park Forest ............................................................................................................15 Figure 15: Renter occupied housing units by units in structure...........................................................................................................................16 Figure 16: Renter households by age of householder ............................................................................................................................................16 Figure 17: Renter households by household income ..............................................................................................................................................17 Figure 18: Incidence of housing cost burden among renter households.........................................................................................................17 Figure 19: Renter households by gross rent as a percent of household income, Park Forest..................................................................18 Figure 20: Conventional rental apartment developments, Park Forest ............................................................................................................19 Figure 21: Conventional rental apartment developments by place...................................................................................................................20 Figure 22: Current conventional rental apartment market characteristics .....................................................................................................20 Figure 23: Conventional apartment market rent growth......................................................................................................................................20 Figure 24: Conventional rental apartment market vacancy trend......................................................................................................................21 Figure 25: Profile of HUD-subsidized rental units...................................................................................................................................................23
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