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Australia and New Zealand 12 Australia and New Zealand BARRIE PITTOCK (AUSTRALIA) AND DAVID WRATT (NEW ZEALAND) Lead Authors: R. Basher (New Zealand), B. Bates (Australia), M. Finlayson (Australia), H. Gitay (Australia), A. Woodward (New Zealand) Contributing Authors: A. Ar thington (Australia), P. Beets (New Zealand), B. Biggs (New Zealand), H. Clark (New Zealand), I. Cole (Australia), B. Collyer (Australia), S. Crimp (Australia), K. Day (Australia), J. Ford-Robertson (New Zealand), F. Ghassemi (Australia), J. Grieve (New Zealand), D. Griffin (Australia), A. Hall (New Zealand), W. Hall (Australia), G. Horgan (New Zealand), P.D. Jamieson (New Zealand), R. Jones (Australia), G. Kenny (New Zealand), S. Lake (Australia), R. Leigh (Australia), V. Lyne (Australia), M. McGlone (New Zealand), K. McInnes (Australia), G. McKeon (Australia), J. McKoy (New Zealand), B. Mullan (New Zealand), P. Newton (New Zealand), J. Renwick (New Zealand), D. Smith (Australia), B. Sutherst (Australia), K. Walsh (Australia), B. Watson (Australia), D. White (Australia), T. Yonow (Australia) Review Editor: M. Howden (Australia) CONTENTS Executive Summary 59 3 12 . 6 . Settlements and Industry 61 5 12 . 6 . 1 . Infrastructure 61 5 12 . 1 . The Australasian Region 59 5 12 . 6 . 2 . Investment and Insurance 61 7 12 . 1 . 1 . Ov e r v i e w 59 5 12 . 6 . 3 . En e r gy and Minerals 61 7 12 . 1 . 2 . Previous Wor k 59 5 12 . 6 . 4 . Coastal Development 12 . 1 . 3 . Socioeconomic Tre n d s 59 6 and Management, Tou r i s m 61 7 12 . 1 . 4 . Climate Tre n d s 59 6 12 . 6 . 5 . Risk Management 61 8 12 . 1 . 5 . Climate Scenarios 59 7 12 . 1 . 5 . 1 . Spatial Patterns of 12 . 7 . Human Health 61 8 Temperature and Rainfall 59 7 12 . 7 . 1 . Diseases and Injuries 61 8 12 . 1 . 5 . 2 . Uncertainties and 12 . 7 . 2 . Vul n e r a b i l i t y 61 9 Probabilistic Scenarios 59 9 12 . 7 . 3 . Complexities of Forecasting Health Effe c t s 62 0 12 . 1 . 5 . 3 . Changes in Extreme Events 12 . 7 . 4 . Public Health Infrastructure 62 0 and Sea Level 59 9 12 . 7 . 5 . Design of Human Environments 62 0 12 . 1 . 5 . 4 . New SRES Scenarios 60 0 12 . 7 . 6 . Vulnerable Populations, Including Indigenous and Poor 62 0 12 . 2 . Key Regional Concerns 60 0 12 . 8 . Adaptation Potential and Vul n e r a b i l i t y 62 1 12 . 3 . Wat e r Supply and Hydrol o g y 60 1 12 . 8 . 1 . Adaptation and Possible Benefits 12 . 3 . 1 . Water Supply 60 1 of Climate Change 62 1 12 . 3 . 2 . Water Allocation and Policy 60 2 12 . 8 . 2 . Integrated Assessments and Th r e s h o l d s 62 2 12 . 3 . 3 . Inland and Coastal Salinization 60 2 12 . 8 . 3 . Natural Systems 62 3 12 . 3 . 4 . Water Quality 60 3 12 . 8 . 4 . Managed Systems 62 3 12 . 8 . 5 . Human Environments 62 4 12 . 4 . Ecosystems and Conservation 60 3 12 . 8 . 6 . Indigenous People 62 5 12 . 4 . 1 . Introduction 60 3 12 . 8 . 7 . Extra-Regional Factors 62 5 12 . 4 . 2 . Forests and Woo d l a n d s 60 3 12 . 4 . 3 . Ra n g e l a n d s 60 4 12 . 9 . Sy n t h e s i s 62 5 12 . 4 . 4 . Alpine Systems 60 5 12 . 9 . 1 . In t r o d u c t i o n 62 5 12 . 4 . 5 . Wet l a n d s 60 5 12 . 9 . 2 . Observed Consequences of Past and 12 . 4 . 6 . Riverine Environments 60 5 Current Climate Variability in the Region 62 6 12 . 4 . 7 . Coastal and Marine Systems 60 6 12 . 9 . 3 . Factors Influencing Vul n e r a b i l i t y 62 6 12 . 4 . 8 . Landscape Management as a Goal 12.9.3.1. Abrupt or Nonlinear Changes for Conservation and Ad a p t a t i o n 60 7 in Impacts 62 6 12.9.3.2. Interactions with Other 12 . 5 . Food and Fiber 60 8 Environmental and Social Factors 62 7 12 . 5 . 1 . In t r o d u c t i o n 60 8 12.9.3.3. Regional-Global Interactions 62 7 12 . 5 . 2 . Pastoral Farming 60 8 12 . 9 . 4 . Impacts for Differing Emissions 12 . 5 . 3 . Cropping and Horticulture 60 9 Scenarios and Stabilization Pathways 62 7 12 . 5 . 4 . Fo r e s t r y 61 0 12 . 9 . 5 . Uncertainties and Risk Management 62 7 12 . 5 . 5 . Fi s h e r i e s 61 1 12 . 9 . 6 . Vulnerability and Adaptability of 12 . 5 . 6 . Dr o u g h t 61 2 Australia and New Zealand 62 7 12 . 5 . 7 . Pests and Diseases 61 3 12 . 9 . 7 . Knowledge Gaps 62 9 12 . 5 . 8 . Su s t a i n a b i l i t y 61 4 12 . 5 . 9 . Global Markets 61 4 Re f e re n c e s 63 0 12 . 5 . 1 0 . Indigenous Resource Management 61 5 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY The Australia and New Zealand Region: This region spans the particularly threatened by climate change include coral reefs tropics to mid-latitudes and has varied climates and ecosystems, (Australia) and freshwater wetlands in the coastal zone and including deserts, rainforests, coral reefs, and alpine areas. The inland. climate is strongly influenced by the surrounding oceans. The El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon leads to Food and Fiber:Agricultural activities are particularly vulnerable floods and prolonged droughts, especially in eastern Australia to regional reductions in rainfall in southwest and inland and parts of New Zealand. The region therefore is sensitive to Australia (medium confidence) and eastern New Zealand. the possible changes toward a more El Niño-like mean state Drought frequency and consequent stresses on agriculture are suggested by Working Group I. Extreme events are a major likely to increase in parts of Australia and New Zealand as a source of current climate impacts, and changes in extreme result of higher temperatures and possibly more frequent events are expected to dominate impacts of climate change. El Niños (medium confidence). Enhanced plant growth and Return periods for heavy rains, floods, and storm surges of a water-use efficiency (WUE) resulting from carbon dioxide given magnitude at particular locations would be modified by (CO2) increases may provide initial benefits that offset any possible increases in intensity of tropical cyclones, mid-latitude negative impacts from climate change (medium confidence), storms, and heavy rain events (medium confidence) and changes although the balance is expected to become negative with in the location-specific frequency of tropical cyclones (low to warmings in excess of 2–4°C and associated rainfall decreases medium confidence). Scenarios of climate change based on (medium confidence). Reliance on exports of agricultural and recent coupled atmosphere-ocean climate models suggest that forest products makes the region sensitive to changes in large areas of mainland Australia will experience significant c o mmodity prices induced by changes in climate elsewhere. decreases in rainfall during the 21st century (low to medium confidence). Australian and New Zealand fisheries are influenced by the extent and location of nutrient upwellings governed by prevailing Before stabilization of greenhouse gas (GHG) concentrations, winds and boundary currents. In addition, ENSO influences the north-south temperature gradient in mid-southern latitudes recruitment of some fish species and the incidence of toxic is expected to increase (medium to high confidence), strengthening algal blooms. There is as yet insufficient knowledge about the westerlies and the associated west-to-east gradient of rainfall impacts of climate changes on regional ocean currents and about across Tasmania and New Zealand. Following stabilization of physical-biological linkages to enable confident predictions of GHG concentrations, these trends would be reversed (medium changes in fisheries productivity. confidence). Settlements, Industry, and Human Health: Marked trends to Water Supply and Hydrology: In some areas, water resources greater population and investment in exposed coastal regions already are stressed and are highly vulnerable, with intense are increasing vulnerability to tropical cyclones and storm surge s . competition for water supply. This is especially so with respect Thus, projected increases in tropical cyclone intensity and to salinization (parts of Australia) and competition for water p o ssible changes in their location-specific frequency, along between agriculture, power generation, urban areas, and with sea-level rise, would have major impacts—notably, increased e n v ironmental flows (high confidence). Increased evaporation storm-surge heights for a given return period (medium to high and possible decreases of rainfall in many areas would confidence). Increased frequency of high-intensity rainfall adversely affect water supply, agriculture, and the survival and would increase flood damages to settlements and infrastructure reproduction of key species in parts of Australia and New (medium confidence). There is high confidence that projected Zealand (medium confidence). climate changes will enhance the spread of some disease vectors, thereby increasing the potential for disease outbreaks, despite Ecosystems and Conserva t i o n : Warming of 1°C would threaten existing biosecurity and health services. the survival of species currently growing near the upper limit of their temperature range, notably in some Australian alpine Vulnerability and Adaptation: Climate change will add to regions that already are near these limits, as well as in the existing stresses on achievement of sustainable land use and southwest of western Australia. Other species that have conservation of terrestrial and aquatic biodiversity.
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