Yellow River Shows Signs of Life – The Future of Northern China As Region of Extreme Water Scarcity m a t s r e t u G rn ö j B : o t o Ph

The water predicament of the Yellow Chinese water polices from project-based to Implications of severe River, including Hai and Huai, its two resource-oriented water management. water-stress in Northern China water-starved neighbouring basins, has In China, the most arable land is in the problems on a massive scale. It also has Water-rich country with north, where agriculture depends on ir- degrees of freedom which are limited water-poor areas rigation. With most of the grain produc- in several senses: rural development China is the third largest country in the tion coming from irrigated agriculture, has to be secured to avoid unwanted world, with only Russia and Canada being water plays a major role for food security urban migration, irrigation water has larger. It has 21% of the world population and poverty alleviation. Agriculture is the to be secured to raise the income level and will be increasing by 200 million dominant sector and is thus responsible for of the rural population and avoid social people over the next half century. Most of 80% of the water demand. To support the confl icts, and food self-suffi ciency on the huge country is unproductive deserts growing population, irrigation will have to an improved nutritional level has to be and inaccessible mountains, and most of expand by some 50% by 2030. In spite of secured for the rising population. At the population live in the eastern parts, this, average water withdrawals are in most 3 the same time, large scale sedimentation where the climate is mostly temperate basins at or below 500 m /p yr – only 20 % has to be avoided, otherwise fl ood risks and subtropical, controlled by monsoon of the withdrawal levels compared to the to the densely populated neighbouring winds, and with moist winds blowing in USA and Central Asia, for example! plains will be exacerbated. from the southeast in the summertime and A dramatic water crisis is looming in the cold dry winds from the northwest during grain producing regions in the north. In the “No China without the Yellow River,” says the winter. Hai River basin, farmers depend on shallow the Chinese Minister of Water Resources, Overall, China is a water-rich country groundwater, and the water table has been Mr. Wang Shucheng, meaning that the when seen in relation to t he overa ll popu la - dropping steadily for almost 30 years. Natu- North China Plateau was the result of Yellow tion and its per-capita water availability of ral streamfl ow has almost completely ceased 3 3 River sedimentation. Minister Wang, who some 2,200 m per person per year (m /p in response to high consumptive use, land will speak during this year’s Stockholm Water yr). This constitutes a water-crowding begins to subside and salt water intrudes into Symposium, personifi es the important shift in level of 450 people per fl ow unit of 1 mil- freshwater aquifers. Upstream/downstream lion cubic meter per year (p/fl ow unit). The allocation problems in the Yellow River are population continues to grow, however, so serious. Excessive upstream withdrawals that by 2030 the per-capita availability will have caused the river to dry up more and 3 have declined to some 1,700 m /p yr (600 more for part of the year, culminating in p/fl ow unit) – a level where a multitude 1997 with 7 months when downstream of countries tend to start relying partly people could walk across the river bed. on a water-defi ciency driven food import The fl ow interruption, explained by urban (virtual water). There are, however, huge growth, expanding industrial use, and new regional differences in terms of water irrigation projects in a number of upstream crowding in China (see table and map). provinces, left users in the two downstream The most water stressed regions are provinces Shandung and Henan without the Hai-Luan basin, hosting the cities of surface water sources, forcing them to Beijing and Tientsin, and the Huai basin switch to groundwater. south of the Yellow River. Also, the Yellow m a t s

r River is in the chronic scarcity interval Mastering the nexus of streamfl ow de- e t u with 1400 p/fl ow unit. The use-to-avail- pletion, massive silting and fl ood risk G rn

ö ability ratio in these three rivers is already The four key problems in the Yellow River j B : quite high, between 50-98. basin are closely interconnected: fl oods, o t o sedimentation, streamfl ow depletion and Ph

10 pollution. The floods are particularly ecosystems and poor water quality) have to which will include three main transfers, was diffi cult to master since the river bed has be addressed and managed in order to be offi cially started in December 2002 with the over time been raised over the surrounding solved. The newly empowered river basin eastern transfer from Jiangsu province to landscape and is now 6-10 meters higher. commission recently restricted access to Shandong and neighbouring provinces. The fl ood threat is closely linked to the water in upstream provinces to increase the The question is if China will be able to problem of a spectacular sediment fl ow col- downstream fl ow. Pricing, and wise use of move from a present very critical water situ- ouring the river yellow. Ensuring the stabil- a set of reservoirs, contributed to the effort. ation to a re-established sustainable relation ity of the dikes along the lower river is a key Measures have also been taken to return to its water resources. The holistic approach security issue because of the high popula- cultivated land to recover forest and grass- of IWRM involving all stakeholders in that tion density in the surrounding landscapes. land. Water demanding crops like rice have process is the best guarantee for success. The The 100 -year fl ood, even with the existing been replaced by dry tolerant wheat. At the policies of today with modernised water reservoirs operating, is an almost incredible same time it is now reported that the Yellow governance give hope that China will suc- 3 16,000 m /second. In winter time, ice jams River has again reached the sea throughout ceed and that the Yellow River will remain. add to the fl ood risk problem. the year during the last three years. Streamfl ow depletion adds to the prob- In order to meet increasing demands of This article was co-written by Professor Malin lem: when water fl ow declines, sediments water in the dry north of China, the south Falkenmark of SIWI and Mr. Björn Guterstam of deposit in the main channel. Securing to north transfer of water from the Yangtze the Global Water Partnership. the river bed from rising is a matter of large River is being realised. The 50 -year project, ■ scale soil conservation in the Loess plateau in the middle part of the river, silt retention in a well functioning system of reservoirs, and fl ood season silt fl ushing along the lower part of the river.

Complex water management challenge Water resources management has been key to sustaining China for 5,000 years and is key to the new challenges when moving into an open, market-oriented society. Last year the National People’s Congress approved a new water law. The water law is the foundation for a holistic approach to manage water for the demands of agricul- ture, cities, industry and nature. The new policy even puts ecosystem functions as a priority. Integrated water resources man- agement (iwrm) is the prescribed way to secure water for all sectors in China. The challenge ahead is how to implement new Regional differences in terms of water crowding (population pressure on available water resourc- policy through rules and regulations. es, expressed as people per fl ow unit of one million cubic meters of annual recharge). Increasing The present population of 1.3 billion water crowding means an increasing dispute proneness and an increasing number of people is sustained with domestic grain, and polluting each fl ow unit of water. Each cube shows one fl ow unit, each dot equals 100 persons. 2030 1.6 Basins: I) rivers in Northern China, II) Hai river, III) Huai river, IV) Yellow river, V) Yangtze river, by some billion are to be sup- VI) rivers in South China, VII) rivers in Southeastern China, VIII) inland river. plied without increased water withdrawal. This progress will be achieved through TABLE. Water scarcity in China improved water use effi ciency from the present 0.45 to a future 0.55. According to Basin Per capita Water crowding Similar to Use to the Chinese Ministry of Water Resources, availability p/mill m3/yr availability the future increase in water demand will m3/p yr ratio happen in the urban areas as people move percent to the cities looking for employment in the Hai Luan 330 3030 Israel 98 growing industries. Today, some 400 mil- lion live in urban areas. In the next three decades this may increase to 800 million. Yellow 770 1300 Egypt 54 Social and economic reasons are behind this change and will give the remaining Huai 500 2000 Tunisia, 57 farmers a better economic situation, while Algeria urban economic growth will sustain about Yangtze 2400 420 Spain, UK 17 half the population in the future. The many problems of the Yellow River Total China 2200 450 (drying up, siltation, floods, destroyed

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