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World Solar Energy Review: Technology, Markets and Policies

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World Solar Energy Review: Technology, Markets and Policies The Center for Energy and Environmental Policy conducts interdisciplinary and collaborative research and supports graduate instruction in energy, environmental, and sustainable development policy. The Center serves as a University-wide forum for the discussion and dissemination of faculty, staff, and graduate student research in these areas. In addition to its research and instructional activities, the Center also provides technical assistance to community, state, federal and international agencies and nonprofit organizations. The Center is composed of an internationally diverse faculty, professional staff, and graduate student body with backgrounds in a variety of disciplines including political science, economics, sociology, geography, philosophy, urban planning, environmental studies, history, and engineering. Research programs currently organized in the Center include comparative energy and environmental policy, sustainable development, political economy of energy, environment and development, environmental justice, conservation and renewable energy options, integrated resource planning, and technology environment and society. Graduate areas of specialization in energy and environmental policy are supported at the master‘s and doctoral levels. Mailing Address: John Byrne Director Center for Energy and Environmental Policy University of Delaware Newark, DE 19716-7381 Email: [email protected] Telephone: (302) 831-8405 Telefax: (302) 831-3098 Website: http://ceep.udel.edu ii WORLD SOLAR ENERGY REVIEW: TECHNOLOGY, MARKETS AND POLICIES John Byrne, Lado Kurdgelashvili, Manu V. Mathai, Ashok Kumar, Jung-Min Yu, Xilin Zhang, Jun Tian, and Wilson Rickerson Center for Energy and Environmental Policy University of Delaware Govinda R. Timilsina Environment and Energy Unit, Development Research Group The World Bank May 2010 iii Table of Contents 1. Status of Solar Energy Technology ........................................................................................ 1 1.1 Global Solar Energy Potential .......................................................................................... 1 1.2 Regional Solar Energy Potential ....................................................................................... 2 1.3 A Characterization of Solar Energy Technologies ........................................................... 5 1.4 Photovoltaics ................................................................................................................... 10 1.4.1 Grid-connected PV................................................................................................... 11 1.4.2 Off-grid PV Systems ................................................................................................ 14 1.4.3 Production of PV Cells ............................................................................................ 15 1.5 Solar Thermal .................................................................................................................. 18 1.5.1 Solar Thermal Electric ............................................................................................. 19 1.5.2 Solar Thermal Non-Electric ..................................................................................... 20 2. A Comparative Analysis of Solar and Non-Solar Energy Costs .......................................... 23 2.1 Introduction ..................................................................................................................... 23 2.2 Cost Comparison for Centralized Power Generation Technologies ............................... 26 2.2.1 Coal .......................................................................................................................... 26 2.2.2 Natural Gas .............................................................................................................. 28 2.2.3 Nuclear Power .......................................................................................................... 29 2.2.4 Wind ......................................................................................................................... 30 2.2.5 Concentrating Solar Power (CSP) ........................................................................... 31 2.3 Cost Comparison for Distributed Power Generation Technologies ............................... 32 2.3.1 PV ............................................................................................................................ 33 2.3.2 Fuel Cells ................................................................................................................. 35 iv 2.3.3 Geothermal Heat Pumps .......................................................................................... 35 2.4 Comparison of the LCOEs for Distributed and Central Station Renewable Energy Technologies ......................................................................................................................... 36 2.5 Experience Curves .......................................................................................................... 37 2.5.1 Experience Curves of Renewable Electric Technologies ........................................ 39 2.5.2. Insights into Short-Term Cost Trends in Solar PV ................................................. 40 2.5.2.1. Trends in Module Costs ....................................................................................... 41 2.5.2.2. Trends in Other System Costs.............................................................................. 42 2.5.3 Aggregate Impacts ................................................................................................... 43 2.6 Conclusion ...................................................................................................................... 43 3. Development of Solar Energy Technologies and Existing Barriers .................................... 45 3.1 History of Development of Solar Energy Technologies ................................................. 45 3.2 Diffusion Trends of Photovoltaics Compared to other Semiconductor and Electronics Technologies ......................................................................................................................... 46 3.3 Barriers to the Development and Utilization of Solar Energy Technologies ................. 49 3.3.1Technical Barriers (PV) ............................................................................................ 49 3.3.2 Technical Barrier (Solar thermal) ............................................................................ 50 3.3.3 Economic Barriers (PV) ........................................................................................... 51 3.3.4 Economic Barriers (Solar Thermal) ......................................................................... 52 3.3.5 Institutional Barriers ................................................................................................ 52 4. A Review of Policy Frameworks to Support Solar Energy Development ........................... 55 4.1 Introduction ..................................................................................................................... 55 4.2 Germany .......................................................................................................................... 56 4.2.1 Photovoltaics ............................................................................................................ 56 4.3 United States ................................................................................................................... 59 v 4.3.1 Photovoltaics ............................................................................................................ 59 4.3.2 Solar Thermal Electric ............................................................................................. 64 4.4 Spain ............................................................................................................................... 66 4.4.1 Solar Thermal Heating ............................................................................................. 66 4.4.2 Solar Thermal Electric ............................................................................................. 68 4.5 Lessons Learned .............................................................................................................. 69 4.5.1 Photovoltaics ............................................................................................................ 70 4.5.2 Solar Thermal Heating ............................................................................................. 70 4.5.3 Solar Thermal Electric ............................................................................................. 71 4.6 India ................................................................................................................................ 71 4.6.1 Photovoltaics ............................................................................................................ 71 4.6.2 Solar Thermal Heating ............................................................................................. 75 4.6.3 Solar Thermal Electric ............................................................................................. 77 4.7 China ............................................................................................................................... 79 4.7.1 Photovoltaics ............................................................................................................ 79 4.7.2 Solar
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