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Drought Bulletin of Pakistan

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Drought Bulletin of Pakistan Pakistan Meteorological Department Drought Bulletin Of Pakistan May2021 Highlights • Rainfall for the month of May 2021 was less thannormal in the northern parts of the country while isolated areas in Punjab, Sindh and Balochistan receive above normal rainfall and rest of the areas received below normal rainfall. The Chief amounts of monthly rainfall recorded are shown in Table:1. • During the month of June2021, Near Normal precipitation is expected over the country. Rise in temperatures in high altitudes are likely to cause snowmelt in the Northern Areas subsequently the chances of increase in water availability in the Upper Indus basin and some GLOF events over the Glaciers. Heat wave conditions may arise in major cities of Sindh and south Punjab during June, 202 1. • Precipitation during the month of May 2021 was not good enough for drought prone areas of Balochistanand Sindh. • Moderate to severe Drought Conditions are prevailing over NW areas of Balochistan and S.E Sindh. The disaster management authorities may continue surveillance in these areas and plan DRM activities plan accordingly. National Drought Monitoring Centre (NDMC) Headquarters Office, Sector H-8/2, Islamabad Tel : + (92-51) 9250598, Fax: + (92-51) 9250368, URL: http://www.pmd.gov.pk 1 Table of Contents S.No. Contents 1 Weather Summary of the period 2 Drought Situation Analysis I. Normal and Actual Monthly Rainfall Comparison II. Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) III. Land Surface Temperature (LST) IV. Temperature Vegetation Index (TVDI) V. Length of Consecutive Dry Days Spell 3 Water availability/ Dams flow data 4 Weather outlook for June, 2021 5 Drought Outlook for June, 2021 6 Crop Condition 7 Advice for Farmers This Bulletin is regularly being published on monthly basis under the guidance of Dr.Azmat Hayat Khan, Chief Meteorologist, Pakistan Meteorological Department. Chief Editor: Dr.Shahzada Adnan Meteorologist National Drought Monitoring Center (NDMC), Islamabad Editor: Nasir Yaseen, Assist. Meteorologist, NDMC, Islamabad 2 1. Weather Summary for the month of May, 2021 During the month of May2021, rainfall received across Pakistan is shown in Fig.1. Light to Moderate rainfall events were reported at most places in Azad Jammu and Kashmir, Khyber Paktunkhawa and few parts in upper Punjabwhile rest of the country received light to no rainfall comprising Gilgit Baltistan and isolated areas in Punjab, Sindh and Blochistan. The Chief amounts of monthly rainfall recorded across Pakistan during May, 2021 is shown in Table:1 Figure 1: Rainfall distribution for the month of Figure 2: Percentage Departure of Rainfall for the May-2021 month of May-2021 The Fig. 2 depicts the Percentage Departure of Rainfall from the normal. Above Normal rainfall was received in most areas of KP and few in Punjab, Sindh and Balochistan as well while below normal at Giglt Baltistan and areas of Sindh and Balochistan. Table:1 Sr.No. Station Rainfall(mm) Sr.No. Station Rainfall(mm) 1 Rawalakot 157.4 11 Garhi Dupatta 72.8 2 Bandi Abbaspur 146.6 12 Chattar Kalas 70.3 3 Malam Jabba 141.0 13 Mianwali Airbase 70.0 4 Chakothi 133.5 14 Kohat Airbase 70.0 5 Saidu Sharif 110.0 15 Panjera 69.8 6 Buner 104.0 16 Kakul 62.7 7 Murree 97.0 17 Brarkot 60.8 8 Tandali 88.5 18 Balakot 60.0 9 Dir 85.6 19 Fort Munro 60.0 10 Hajira 82.2 20 Kotli 58.6 3 2. Drought Situation Analysis Spatial drought analysis results using different indices are represented in Fig. 3. In Balochistan, District Chagi, Kharan, Panjgor, Awaran, Washuk and Kech are facing Moderate while Gawadar Severe Drought Conditions. In Sindh Province , District Tharparkar, Umerkot, Mirpurkhas and Sangar are facing Moderate Drought while Badin, Thatta, Sajawal, Hyderabad, Khairpur,Larkana, facing Moderate and Dadu, Nawabshah, Jamshoro are facing Mild Drought Conditions. Figure 3: Analysis for Drought conditions of Pakistan 4 I. Monthly Actual to Normal Rainfall Comparison for May-2021 5 II. Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) Normalized Difference Vegetation Index values for the month of May2021 are shown in Fig.4. NDVI conditions in Khyber Pakhtunkhawa, Punjab and along the Indus belt are good, depicting the impacts of well distributed rainfall during the month. Vegetation index is minimum over easternSindh and most parts of Figure 4: NDVI during 12-27 May, 2021 Balochistan. III. Land Surface Temperature (LST) Land Surface Temperatures (LST) for the period 12– 19 May, 2021 are represented by Fig. 5. In the central parts of the country, average daytime temperatures remained between 25oC to 35oC while atlower parts of the country,the temperature reaches above 40oC. Figure 5: LST (°C) during 12-19May, 2021 LandSurface Temperatures during the period 20 – 27, May2021 are shown in Fig. 6. A slightincreasing trend in temperatures has been observed in most parts of the country as compared to the previous week. Figure 6: LST (°C) during 20-27May, 2021 6 IV. Temperature Vegetation Dryness Index (TVDI) Temperature Vegetation Dryness Index (TVDI) derived from MODIS product MOD13A2 (NDVI) and MOD11A2 (LST) is shown in Fig. 7, which indicates mild to moderate wet conditions in Gilgit Baltistan and adjoining areas of Khyber Pakhtunkhawa & Kashmir, while western parts of Balochistan are under moisture stress. Figure 7: TVDI for period 12 - 27May -2021 V.Length of Consecutive Dry Days Spell 7 3. Water availability/ Dams flow data: During the month of May2021, water inflow, outflow and level of Rawal, Khanpur, Tarbela and Mangla dams are shown in Fig.8& 9. An increasing& decreasing trends in inflow and water level has been observed in Terbela and Mangla dams. Figure 8: Water inflow, outflow and level of Rawal and Khanpur Dams Figure 9: Water inflow, outflow and level of Tarbela and Mangla Dams 4. Weather outlook forJune2021 Generally, June is the hottest and driest month except some pre-monsoon showers during the month. Usually northern parts of the country first experience the onset of monsoon and hence the probability of occurrence of rain over northern parts of Punjab is greater than other parts of the country.Due to the intense heating and relatively clearer skies, the evaporative demand of atmosphere will increase 8 sharply. Mean maximum temperature may remain above 40 °C over most of the agricultural plains of the country.Gusty wind and dust storms will be the normal phenomena during the month. 5. Drought Outlook for May 2021 The month of May was not good for drought prone areas of Balochistan and Sindh. In Balochistan, District Chagi, Kharan, Panjgor, Awaran, Washuk and Kech are facing Moderate while Gawadar facing Severe Drought Conditions. In Sindh Province , District Tharparkar, Umerkot, Mirpurkhas and Sangar are facing Moderate Drought while Badin, Thatta, Sajawal, Hyderabad, Khairpur,Larkana, facing Moderate and Dadu, Nawabshah, Jamshoro are facing Mild Drought Conditions. Fig-10: Conditions across Balochistan Fig:11 Drought Conditions across Sindh Normalized Vegetation Index (NDVI) Comparison: 9 All stakeholders are requested to make all efforts to watch water availability situation across rain-fed areas of Sindh and Balochistan especially in drought affected areas and plan DRM activities accordingly. 5. Crop Condition: The Kharif Crops season varies by region, starting at the earliest May-June. Kharif crops are usually sown at the beginning of the first rains during the advent of the south-west monsoon season, and they are harvested at the end of monsoon season (October). Depending on the region,Sunflower is at the Maturity stage in Sindh. Sugercane is at Tillering stage. Threshing of rape Mustard is completed. No serious pest/insect attack has been reported so far. 7. Advice for Farmers: i) Farmers of upper & central parts of the country are advised to complete the harvesting process at earliest possible and save the crop and fodder to avoid any weather induced loss from rains and strong winds during the month 10 iiI) Farmers of the lower half of the country are advised to irrigate the fields for the Kharif crops as per requirement keeping in view the forecast in those areas. ii) During the harvesting, farmers are advised to keep themselves abreast ofthe weather conditions and keep listening & watching carefully the weather advisories issued through radio and televisions on a regular basis. Pakistan Meteorological Department, Sector H-8/2, IslamabadPh: 051-9250598, Fax: 051-9250368 11 .
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