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Assessing Risk for Recidivism in Individuals Convicted of Stalking Offenses

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Assessing Risk for Recidivism in Individuals Convicted of Stalking Offenses CJBXXX10.1177/0093854815610612Criminal Justice And BehaviorFoellmi et al. / Predictive Validity of The SAM 610612research-article2015 ASSESSING RISK FOR RECIDIVISM IN INDIVIDUALS CONVICTED OF STALKING OFFENSES Predictive Validity of the Guidelines for Stalking Assessment and Management MÉLODIE C. FOELLMI BARRY ROSENFELD Fordham University MICHELE Galietta John Jay College of Criminal Justice This study examined the internal validity and predictive accuracy of the Guidelines for Stalking Assessment and Management (SAM), a structured professional judgment risk assessment tool for stalking. Interviewers rated 89 stalking offenders on the Psychopathy Checklist: Screening Version (PCL:SV) and SAM Nature (N) and Perpetrator (P) subscales. Researchers obtained stalking and violence outcomes prospectively from several sources, for an average follow-up period of 2.5 years. Cox Proportional Hazard analyses including SAM and PCL:SV scores demonstrated a significant positive relationship between SAM total and subscale scores in predicting stalking recidivism, whereas PCL:SV scores were negatively associated with recidivism. However, the SAM clinical risk ratings did not significantly predict stalking reoffending. There were also no significant associations between SAM scores and violent outcomes. These findings provide mixed support for the use of the SAM as a risk assessment tool for stalking offenders. Keywords: offenders; risk; stalking; violence; violence risk assessment AUTHORs’ NOTE: This research was supported in part by Grant R34 MH71841 from the National Institute of Mental Health (Barry Rosenfeld, principal investigator). The authors wish to thank all of the clinicians, researchers, and volunteers who made this project possible: Sherif Abdelmessih, George Anderson, Trevor Barese, Katherine Byars, Joanna Cahall, Niki Colombino, Sarah Coupland, Ronald Curtis, Michael Davenport, David Early, Shana Einzig, Joanna Fava, Virginia Fineran, Alexandra Fontanetta, Jacomina Gerbrandij, Haleh Ghanidazeh, Jacqueline Howe, André Ivanoff, Martin Kassen, Sara Kopelovich, Jennifer Loveland, Melissa Miele, Samantha Morin, Christopher Ng, Justin Perry, Ashley Pierson, Brian Pilecki, Lauren Saunders, Rachel Small, Steve Smith, Marissa Stanziani, Stephanie Stern, Matthew Stimmel, Zoe-Turner-Corn, Kyle Ward, Erin Williams, and everybody else who contributed to the project. Correspondence concerning this article should be addressed to Mélodie Foellmi, Department of Psychology, Fordham University, Rose Hill, 226 Dealy, 441 East Fordham Road, Bronx NY 10458; e-mail: [email protected]. CRIMINAL JUSTICE AND BEHAVIOR, 2016, Vol. 43, No. 5, May 2016, 600 –616. DOI: 10.1177/0093854815610612 © 2016 International Association for Correctional and Forensic Psychology 600 Downloaded from cjb.sagepub.com by RON BLACK on May 18, 2016 Foellmi et al. / PREDICTIVE VALIDITY OF THE SAM 601 talking has gained considerable attention from mental health professionals, criminal Sjustice researchers, and lawmakers. A notoriously persistent behavior, stalking is associ- ated with rates of violence between 30% and 40% (McEwan, Mullen, MacKenzie, & Ogloff, 2009), and evokes considerable distress on the part of its victims (Thomas, Purcell, Pathé, & Mullen, 2008). Victims report high levels of psychopathology, such as anxiety, depres- sion, and posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD), as well as significant lifestyle changes (e.g., relocating, job changes) following stalking victimization (Abrams & Robinson, 2002; Pathé & Mullen, 1997; Purcell, Pathé, & Mullen, 2004). In response to these concerns, anti-stalk- ing laws have been established in each of the 50 United States and most developed countries (Dennison & Thomson, 2005). As a result, ever-increasing numbers of stalking offenders come into contact with the criminal justice system, which, in turn, is forced to make deci- sions about how to most effectively intervene to reduce stalking and stalking-related vio- lence. The purpose of this study is to evaluate the predictive validity of a stalking risk assessment instrument, the Guidelines for Stalking Assessment and Management (SAM; Kropp, Hart, & Lyon, 2008), which was designed to help clinicians assess and manage the risk of stalking recidivism. RISK FACTORS FOR STALKING AND STALKING-RELATED VIOLENCE Mental health and forensic researchers have spent the past two decades investigating the phenomenon of stalking. This research has refined our understanding of the real risks asso- ciated with stalking. For example, studies of recidivism have demonstrated that more than 25% of offenders persist in their stalking for more than 1 year (McEwan, Mullen, & MacKenzie, 2008), and 50% to 60% of offenders who receive criminal justice sanctions and restrictions reoffend within the first year (Mohandie, Meloy, Green-McGowan, & Williams, 2006; Rosenfeld, 2003). Likewise, estimates of violence in the context of stalking typically range from 30% to 40% (McEwan et al., 2009; Rosenfeld, 2004), although cases of life- threatening violence appear to be uncommon (James & Farnham, 2003). Researchers have identified a number of variables associated with stalking persistence and violence. For example, ex-intimate partners are at higher risk for both continued stalking (i.e., they usually stalk for longer periods of time than offenders who have never had an inti- mate relationship with the victim; Budd & Mattinson, 2000; Mohandie et al., 2006; Pathé & Mullen, 1997; Purcell, Pathé, & Mullen, 2002; Purcell et al., 2004; Rosenfeld, 2003; Tjaden & Thoennes, 1998), and are more often violent toward their victim (McEwan et al., 2009). Another robust risk factor for both renewed stalking and stalking-related violence is the pres- ence of a personality disorder, and in particular cluster B disorders (i.e., Borderline and Antisocial; McEwan et al., 2008; Rosenfeld, 2003, 2004; Whyte, Petch, Penny, & Reiss, 2008). Stalking offenders whose behaviors persist and escalate into physical approach tend to be seeking intimacy or have a psychotic illness. However, in ex-intimates, approach and escalation behaviors appear more difficult to predict (McEwan, MacKenzie, Mullen, & James, 2012; McEwan et al., 2008). Additional predictors of stalking-related violence have included the presence of threats, substance abuse, younger age, and low education, though the consistency of these predictors has at times been mixed (McEwan, Mullen, & Purcell, 2007; Rosenfeld, 2004). It should be noted, however, that the research on stalking-related violence has largely relied on retrospective or cross-sectional analyses, differentiating Downloaded from cjb.sagepub.com by RON BLACK on May 18, 2016 602 CRIMINAL JUSTICE AND BEHAVIOR offenders who were and were not violent. Only one study to date has evaluated stalking vio- lence prospectively (Eke, Hilton, Meloy, Mohandie, & Williams, 2011). One putative risk factor for stalking recidivism and violence that has not been clearly established in the existing literature is psychopathy. Psychopathy is widely accepted as an important risk factor for recidivism and violence, in general criminal justice and forensic mental health populations (Douglas, Vincent, & Edens, 2006; Hare, 1999; Walsh & Walsh, 2006). However, its relevance for stalking offenders is less clear. Although Reavis, Allen, and Meloy (2008) classified 15% of their sample of 78 stalking offenders as psychopathic, no data were provided regarding the relevance of this classification to stalking recidivism or violence. On the contrary, Storey, Hart, Meloy, and Reavis (2009) found extremely low rates of psychopathy among stalking offenders, with only 1 of 61 stalking offenders identi- fied as psychopathic. Despite the low rate of psychopathy, they found significant correla- tions between psychopathy and other problematic stalking behaviors (e.g., escalating frequency and severity of their stalking behavior). In a more recent study, Kropp, Hart, Lyon, and Storey (2011) found significant correlations, ranging from .20 to .46, between psychopathy and clinician risk ratings of future stalking and stalking-related violence (based on the SAM, Kropp et al., 2008, described below). No research to date has directly evalu- ated the link between psychopathy and actual stalking recidivism or violence. STALKING RISK ASSESSMENT As the criminal justice system pays growing attention to stalking, mental health clinicians are increasingly asked to evaluate the risks posed by stalking offenders. Although some clini- cians might simply assess for the presence of known predictors (e.g., those variables described above), two assessment tools have now been developed specifically for stalking risk assess- ment. Both of these instruments rely on the structured professional judgment (SPJ) approach to risk assessment, which operationally defines known risk and protective factors to facilitate risk judgments and the implementation of risk management strategies. This approach, exem- plified by the Historical-Clinical-Risk Management-20 (HCR-20; Webster, Douglas, Eaves, & Hart, 1997) and Short-Term Assessment of Risk and Treatability (START; Webster, Martin, Brink, Nicholls, & Desmarais, 2009), combines the advantages of strictly actuarial risk assessments (by relying on empirically supported predictors) with the flexibility of clini- cal judgment (to determine how risk factors should be weighted). The Stalking Risk Profile (SRP), developed by MacKenzie et al. (2009), is an SPJ instru- ment that takes into account five risk domains: (a) the nature of the relationship
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