Right after the Chip Kelly “error” was over, ex-GM Howie Roseman was put back in charge. In two short years he made several shrewd moves, with the end result being a Super Bowl trophy. Fly, Eagles, Fly, was the response I gave my friends who were asking who would win the big game. With a relatively deep and young roster the Eagles may continue to spread their wings.
What went right: Carsen Wentz was leading the NFL in several categories before his unfortunate injury. Assuming he’s back healthy, Philly is in great shape at QB, and the scheme is a good one. The mid- season trade for RB Jay Ajayi (5.8 per carry) gave the Eagles variety and production in the run game, which was 3rd in the NFL in yardage, with a solid 4.5 yards-per-carry. Time of possession was a healthy +5:23. Turnovers were +11. WR Alshon Jeffrey was a master at the 50-50 contested ball, and Nelson Agholor outdid all projections. Philly’s run D was #1, allowing just 79 yards per game. Some of that was a strange reluctance to test their DL, but the 3.8 allowed per carry was still stout. The 3rd down defense was excellent. The pass D% was top ten at 60.4%. The punt return defense was solid. Here are two additional tidbits: 1st, Philly was the #1 NFL team in the red zone. 2nd: Philly is now 20-4 in the regular season in their last 24 games when OT Lane Johnson starts.
What went wrong: Good question! The OL was average at protecting the QB on passing downs. The secondary is still a work in progress and there are times when the Eagles still give up big plays. Finally, the return game needs a spark.
FREE AGENCY ANALYSIS AND STAFF NOTES (Short Version): Philly loses TE Brent Celek to retirement, but just recently added a decent replacement in former Packer Richard Rodgers. They switch out WR Torrey Smith for very similar WR Mike Wallace. Vinny Curry is gone form the DL, replaced by DT Haloti Ngata and perhaps Michael Bennett if he survives possible legal action against him. LB Paul Worrilow signed. CB Patrick Robinson and DB Jaylen Watkins left. Mike Groh was here one year as the WR coach. He’s now the offensive coordinator after Frank Reich was named the Head Coach of the Colts.
2018 draft recap: Philly desperately wanted out of the 1st round and moved way out, before their quick move up (three spots) to get TE Dallas Goebert ahead of Dallas. All I really wanted to see is these Eagles draft a safety. Why that didn’t happen is a mystery to me. Goedert adds another offensive weapon, and if healthy, DL Josh Sweat adds another DL to their large rotational stable. Did they do anything else? Throughout my long career analyzing the draft I’ve always found things teams should have done to better their roster. My track record in diagnosing differences and areas of concern is strong. Philly misused their draft board, but at least they have enough depth to conceal most of their issues. BEST PICK: TE Goedert. SLEEPER PICK: Edge rusher Sweat. MADE NO SENSE: Ignoring safety needs and later, taking two NR (not NFL draft worthy) graded OL.
ROSTER ANALYSIS AS OF SEPTEMBER 3rd: QB: Carson Wentz was having a spectacular season before his injury. Nick Foles looked mediocre until shining in the Super Bowl. He’s quite comfortable in this offense and should be fine while Wentz rehabs. RB: Adding Jay Ajayi was the icing on the cake for this very deep unit. WR: Alshon Jeffrey makes the contested catch look easy. He is not 100% and will miss at least two games to start ’18. Nelson Agholor surprised me with his ’17 performance. He’s needed now. Mike Wallace is the new deep threat. He’ll work better with Wentz as opposed to Foles. The two ’17 rookies are progressing nicely, adding depth. TE: Zach Ertz and promising rookie Dallas Goedert looks solid. Richard Rodgers adds veteran depth. OL: Jason Peters is back from a torn ACL. The unit has experience and has meshed together well. DL: The unit is deep as usual, a decade long tradition. They really attack opposing QB’s even though sack numbers are just average. Derek Barnett is poised to have a solid 2nd season. LB: If Jordan Hicks gets healthy then the unit should perform as well as it did last year. It’s not close to being top ten but despite the no names at OLB they are not a liability. Depth however is lacking this season. CB: Jalen Mills and Ronald Darby have a year under their belts playing together. ’17 rookie Rasul Douglas is decent but all eyes will be on Sidney Jones, who was a top 15 draft talent before his college injury. Rookie Avonte Maddox adds additional depth. Safety: Malcolm Jenkins remains the leader in the secondary. Rodney McLeod is replaceable but the Eagles have not sought to draft or add anyone to challenge him. There is no safety depth.. Special Teams: Both kickers seem fine. The return game missed Darren Sproles last year. I’m not sure who will return punts and kickoffs this year. Coaching: Doug Peterson learned on the job in ’16. He’s a risk taker, and his risks really paid off last year. I still strongly feel that he needs to do a better job in situational game planning. He showed modest improvement in ‘17. Mike Groh was on the staff last year but still has big shoes to fill as the new offensive coordinator. Jim Schwartz is a very good defensive coordinator.
TEAM KEYS AS OF SEPTEMBER 1st: How well will Wentz play off his serious injury? Will the lack of a #1 WR (in Jeffrey’s absence) be detrimental? Why aren’t sack totals higher? Will safety play still be a liability? Can the return game play above (my) expectations? Finally, will there be any Super Bowl hangover? Why was their Head Coach already writing a book?
DID THE PRESEASON MEAN ANYTHING? Last year in this spot I noted how Philly looked ready to roll! Like many teams this August, the Eagles were content to play some veterans very sparingly. Nick Foles was 16-26 with no TD’s, two interceptions and a very high six sacks taken. The run game is ready. TE play was exceptional! Shelton Gibson was the only WR with decent production, but he showed his readiness to contribute. The OL allowed 20 sacks. Subs or not, that seems high. I like it when players are tested in August after returning from injury. LB Jordan Hicks looks really good. The defense did produce 12 sacks and I take that as a good sign. Fletcher Cox had two of those sacks. Douglas (7 tackles) and Jones (9 tackles) had solid camps, and Jones is certainly one to watch. Everything else went about as expected. STRATEGY AND BOTTOM LINE ANALYSIS: Philly opens ’18 with the traditional Thursday Night game hosting Atlanta. They’ll do it with Nick Foles under center which may be good karma considering he’s the one who ultimately got them the Super Bowl ring. Playing early gives the Eagles ten days to prepare for a road trip to Tampa. With a host of Indy next this team has a legit chance to start the season 3-0. Will there be any Super Bowl hangover? Any loss could hasten the return of QB Wentz but otherwise the Eagles could rest him until 9/30 at Tennessee or 10/7 hosting a rested Viking team with playoff revenge. Philly has always been a strong road underdog. That means the game at Tennessee also presents at least a 50-50 win shot. I understand that WR Jeffrey will be missed early (as might Wentz), and I also understand that not all of Coach Peterson’s moves will work out, since he still has issues with situational game planning. Still, I like the early schedule and the team has more talent and depth than most of its opponents. Philly has won often at the NYG but this game will be on Thursday Night. That gives them ten days before hosting Carolina (4-1 at home last five meetings). An interesting game is 10/28 in London vs. Jacksonville. I’m giving the edge to the defensively sound Jags due to familiarity with the site. I expect a split vs. Dallas due to some strange scheduling tidbits. Philly hosts Dallas with rest while the Cowboys will have played on MNF. Dallas hosts Philly off rest, while the Eagles will have played on MNF. Another interesting game on the schedule is 11/18 at New Orleans. Philly has won at their site plenty of times and I expect a shootout. Games 14-16 are at the LA Rams (Rams with revenge, Wentz hurt in that game a year ago), home to Houston and at Washington (check Washington’s morale before this one). BOTTOM LINE: There could be a letdown after winning the Super Bowl but the team is talented, roster deep, and faces a schedule that is not all that tricky. 13 games are in the Eastern time zone. Safety play worries me and I’d like to see more sack production but as long as the defense limits splash plays then Philly will be the clear favorite to repeat in the NFC East. 10-6 sounds about right, and if all goes well, a playoff bye will be the result. KEY GAMES: 9/6 vs. Atlanta and 10/7 vs. Minnesota. A split is fine, but if the team goes 0-2 then we’ll know that the Eagles will be in for a battle all season long. Handicapping Tip: Philly is 24-12 vs. the spread in their 1st road game. They have ten days to prepare for home challenged Tampa. I also expect a high scoring game at New Orleans and a solid win on MNF hosting Washington. 2018 POWER # SET: Coming Saturday.