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Braun Completes His Coup Rokita, Messer Couldn’T Overcome Businessman’S Assault on Congress; Takes Aim at Donnelly by BRIAN A

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Braun Completes His Coup Rokita, Messer Couldn’T Overcome Businessman’S Assault on Congress; Takes Aim at Donnelly by BRIAN A V23, N36 Thursday, May 10, 2018 ‘Outsider’ Braun completes his coup Rokita, Messer couldn’t overcome businessman’s assault on Congress; takes aim at Donnelly By BRIAN A. HOWEY INDIANAPOLIS – More than a year ago, when U.S. Reps. Todd Rokita and Luke Messer began angling for the 2018 U.S. Senate nomination just as President Trump commenced a fitful start, there was the big question: Are you sure you want to give up safe House seats to run in a first Trump mid- term? MSNBC’s Steve Kornacke provided the grist: Since at an anemic to torpid sub-20% approval, this would be a 1998, incumbent senators in “hos- run through razor wire, minefields and shooting galleries. tile states” (which went for the Both Rokita and Messer let their ambitions rule, current White House occupant) were 21-3. The questions though credible sources say that the latter was conflicted increased by mid-summer when Jasper businessman Mike Continued on page 4 Braun began exploring a run. With congressional approval Trump wins primary By MARK SOUDER FORT WAYNE – In a contest in which two candi- dates were jockeying to prove who liked Trump best and a third who is actually like Trump, it is not surprising that Donald Trump again won an “Our administration has pro- Indiana primary. The battle of the three vided over a million documents, Wabash College grads was not pretty. On the Tuesday night, we’ve fully cooperated in it and I was watching the five o’clock in the interest of this country, I news on WANE-TV and some- thing dramatic seemed to be think it’s time to wrap it up.” missing. Then I realized what - Vice President Mike Pence when an ad for a colonoscopy came on and it seemed almost urging the end to the refreshing. Here are initial observations on the Tuesday Mueller investigation on results of the Republican Sen- the “Today Show” today. Page 2 ate primary. were alike and both part of Washing- ton. His early ads set it up by framing The Basics Mike Braun as a conservative and a 1. Having a geographical businessman. Then, while at times his home base still matters in a competi- campaign seemed to get distracted tive race, though not as much as it as opposed to hammering versions once did. Congressman Messer did of that clear theme, he did enough very well in his congressional district similar variations that anybody with a Howey Politics Indiana but fared poorly elsewhere. Con- television set, radio, phone, computer or any other device understood his WWHowey Media, LLC 405 gressman Rokita’s best areas were in his congressional district and Lake core message. Massachusetts Ave., Suite County, his county of birth. He didn’t 2. This defining ad is espe- 300 Indianapolis, IN 46204 do as well as Messer did in his home cially effective if the intended target www.howeypolitics.com base, but he competed closely with – in this case, two targets – behave Braun across northern Indiana (where precisely as portrayed. Congressmen Rokita and Messer looked the part, Brian A. Howey, Publisher Messer was swamped) and competed well in southwest Indiana. Braun acted the part and lived the roles Mark Schoeff Jr., Washington won by large margins in southwest since they were competitors in col- Cameron Carter, Editor Indiana, winning his home county lege. It is incredible that as 20-year- Joel Weyrauch, Editor of Dubois with Mary Lou Howey, Editor 84% of the Mark Curry, Daily Wire, photo vote. He showed more hometown Jack E. Howey, Editor strength than Emeritus either of the congressmen. Subscriptions He also won 2/3 of the counties HPI, HPI Daily Wire $599 in the state and HPI Weekly, $350 finished sec- HPI Mobile, $5.95 monthly ond where he Ray Volpe, Account Manager didn’t win. Most importantly, 317.602.3620 Braun won all of email: [email protected] the big counties except Lake. Contact HPI 2. Issues still matter, but not olds, both were even pulled over by like they once did. You can buy sup- police the same year (1990). During [email protected] port with well-funded claims. Rokita much of the evening, both had 29% Howey’s cell: 317.506.0883 and Messer had records on pro-life of the vote. Not even the best ad firm Washington: 202.256.5822 and pro-gun issues. It didn’t matter. available could have dreamed that Business Office: 317.602.3620 Braun bought proof by asserting it. the cardboard cutouts would become 3. The Indianapolis region that real during the campaign. Usually establishment is frayed if it even exists you don’t get to write your opponents’ © 2018, Howey Politics anymore. Party control is gone; the scripts. Indiana. All rights reserved. people choose. Messer, the presump- 3. A candidate needs to ex- Photocopying, Internet forward- tive establishment favorite, was plain – clearly – why they seek the job ing, faxing or reproducing in crushed by Braun in Hamilton and and what they offer. Braun did, the others didn’t. any form, whole or part, is a Marion counties. Rokita was even close to Messer in those areas. That 4. Messer is a competent, nice violation of federal law without was not supposed to happen. guy, but 70% of the voters weren’t permission from the publisher. looking for a competent nice guy. The Ads They wanted somebody who could 1. A single defining ad can set fight and defeat an incumbent senator. the entire tone for a race. The Braun 5. If you are too negative or cardboard cutouts ad captured the perceived as rude, it backfires except dual theme that the two congressmen maybe in Lake County. Rokita, who Page 3 started in the best position, struggled with this in the were part of the swamp, in order to raise funds? debates (i.e., don’t interrupt) and his ads offended many 5. Mike Braun is an impressive guy. He is not people. He still finished second, which showed the poten- inexperienced. He was on a local school board for over a tial he had to win and a reservoir of good will. He worked decade (probably key to understanding why he voted in incredibly hard and talked issues. But his pugnacious style Democrat primaries, combined with his focus on his Jasper was the most common complaint against him. So, fight, business) and he served as a state representative. No but be reasonably nice in the process of punching your op- allegations of his being a bomb thrower in those political ponent. 6. A single counterpoint charge, if presented clearly, can undermine a well-conceived campaign plan. In this campaign, as Braun seemed on the verge of obliterating his competition by 20 points or more, the charge that he was actually a Democrat became prominent. Braun was a lifelong Democrat in the only factual way to determine it. That fact caused a significant percentage of the people who backed him to have doubts. His response in advertising was not defensive; he claimed that he was actually a lifelong Republican. But his opponents, behaving precisely like the cutout twins they were charged with being, simply were too focused on besting each other to develop a creative or effective attack on Braun. Generally, they continued to attack each other, as if either was ever ahead, and then bashed Braun as a Democrat. Republican U.S. Senate nominee Mike Braun talks to the press after his victory speech in Whit- But their attacks on each other estown Tuesday night. (HPI Photos by Mark Curry) overshadowed assertions against Braun. It undoubtedly tightened the race, but many Republicans were so turned off or wanted experiences emerged. By all accounts, public and private, someone they perceived as a real change agent, that they he seemed like a serious person who tried to learn how decided to vote for Braun even if they believed he was a things work and fix them in practical, business-like ways. Democrat. They wanted to believe Braun and they did. In other words, a Harvard MBA who came back to Indiana It is an interesting insight into people’s minds and how and built a successful national business. advertising works. 6. Because Braun is not part of Washington, he starts with a huge advantage in opposing an incumbent – Mike Braun going forward Swamp Part Two. But Joe Donnelly has already begun de- 1. Mike Braun proved that he is the strongest fining who he is: A non-partisan guy, a typical Hoosier who candidate to defeat Sen. Joe Donnelly. wanders around Indiana in an RV and cares about you. He 2. The gas tax issue ran on empty, though it did will let the attack dogs of the Democrat National Commit- aggravate state legislators across the state. Quietly, that tee and independent groups try to rip Braun to shreds. made some difference – and Donnelly certainly can’t use it The Republican attack dogs will do the same to Donnelly. while wandering around on Indiana roads in an RV. Come election night in November, colonoscopy 3. Whether you live in Indiana still matters, ads might again seem refreshing. Unless, seeing how well though the issue was not fully exploited. Donnelly would negative ads work in Indiana, the colonoscopy companies have done so, had Messer been the nominee. His RV start savaging each other as well. (Don’t dwell on that approach was a mix of Mitch Daniels and preparing for analogy too long.)v Messer. Braun is what he says he is, a Hoosier. 4. Will Braun be prepared to invest at least an- Souder is a former Republican Member of Congress other $6 million, or make peace with the people he said from Indiana.
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