QUARTERLY PERFORMANCE REPORT YEAR 3 Q1 (October– December 2016) AID-492-G-15-00002
30 January 2017 Table of Contents
TABLE OF CONTENTS ...... 2 ACRONYMS ...... 3 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY ...... 4 I. PROGRAM DESCRIPTION AND OBJECTIVES ...... 5 II. SNAPSHOT OF ACTIVITIES ...... 6 III. PROGRAM COMPONENTS ...... 8 1. RESEARCH ...... 8 2. POLICY DEVELOPMENT ...... 11 3. CAPACITY BUILDING ...... 15 4. COMMUNICATIONS ...... 16 5. CROSS-CUTTING ...... 20 IV. PROGRAM MANAGEMENT ...... 22 1. PROGRAM STEERING COMMITTEE MEETING ...... 22 2. REVISED FY3 WORK PLAN AND INTERNAL EPDP TEAM PLANNING ...... 22 3. PERFORMANCE REPORTS ...... 23 4. HUMAN RESOURCE ...... 23 ANNEXES ...... 28 Annex 1 Performance Indicator Tracking Table (as of 31 December 2016) Annex 2 Photo Documentation of EPDP FY3 Quarter 1 Activities Annex 3 Technical Advisory Note on Forecasting Aggregate Electricity Consumption in the Philippines Annex 4 Albert del Rosario Research Institute Roundtable Discussion Program Annex 5 Senate Bill 1290 - An Act Establishing the Philippine Energy Research and Policy Development Institute, Defining its Objectives, Powers and Functions, Providing Funds Therefor, and for Other Purposes Annex 6 EPDP Newsletter vol. 2 no.2 Annex 7 The Manila Times news article “New energy policy anchors on nation’s needs” Annex 8 Draft Highlights of the 16 November 2016 Program Steering Committee Meeting
2 Acronyms
ADRi Alberto Del Rosario Research Institute AGMO Autonomous Group Market Operator DOE Department of Energy EPDP Energy Policy and Development Program EPIRA Electric Power Industry Reform Act ERC Energy Regulatory Commission GPH Government of the Philippines IFPRI International Food Policy Research Institute IMO Independent Market Operator ManCom Management Committee NEDA National Economic and Development Authority NEA National Electrification Administration NPC National Power Corporation PEMC Philippine Electricity Market Corporation PITT Performance Indicator Tracking Table PEP Philippine Energy Plan PES Philippine Economic Society PIRS Performance Indicator Reference Sheet PMEP Performance Monitoring and Evaluation Plan PNOC-EC Philippine National Oil Company Exploration Corporation PSA Philippine Statistics Authority PSALM Power Sector Assets and Liabilities Management Corporation PSC Program Steering Committee TAN Technical Advisory Note Transco National Transmission Corporation UPSE University of the Philippines - School of Economics USAID United States Agency for International Development VAT Value added tax WESM Wholesale Electricity Spot Market
3 Executive Summary
The start of the new fiscal year was an opportunity to reconfirm the consistency of EPDP’s FY3 work plan with the policy directions of the new Philippine Administration in the energy sector. EPDP convened the Program Steering Committee meeting, the first for the new set of senior officials from the National Economic and Development Authority (NEDA) and the Department of Energy (DOE). It was a timely follow-through after EPDP’s courtesy calls on the two Secretaries of NEDA and DOE.
In keeping with its thrust of supporting the government with evidence-based policy studies, EPDP has continued connecting with policy-makers and other stakeholders by presenting the completed research studies. In response to requests, EPDP organized a roundtable discussion with Senator Sherwin Gatchalian, Chairperson of the Senate Committees on Energy and Economic Affairs, and his staff on two completed studies – (i) Filipino 2040 Energy: Power Security and Competitiveness and (ii) The Value-added Tax and Red Tape: What Contributes More to Electricity Tariffs in the Philippines. EPDP also held a policy briefing for senior management of DOE and its attached agencies. In addition, some of the EPDP fellows served as resource persons in the Albert Del Rosario Institute roundtable discussion on “Affordable Electricity: A Requisite for Competitiveness”.
EPDP also presented select studies in two conferences – the Philippine Economic Society 54th Annual Meeting and the Philippine Electricity Summit. The conferences allowed further dissemination of EPDP’s research and provided opportunities to engage and gather feedback from various energy stakeholders in attendance.
To seize the opportunity of cementing its gains in building and sustaining a cadre of energy professionals and practitioners, EPDP supported the curriculum review of the University of the Philippines - School of Economics (UPSE). The faculty of UPSE will conduct the review, whose outcome will be submitted to university authorities for approval. While the outcome is beyond the control of the Program, the effort is geared to formally integrate energy-related topics and courses in UPSE’s undergraduate and graduate curricula. This is hoped to contribute in further establishing UPSE’s reputation as a premier institution in energy policy research. In the same light, EPDP also started providing thesis and dissertation grants to UPSE graduate students who are pursuing energy-related topics for their thesis and dissertation.
EPDP continued to gain media exposure this quarter. An article by The Manila Times cited EPDP as one of DOE’s partners in finding the right energy mix for the country. Its Program Director, Dr. Majah-Leah Ravago, was also featured in DOSTv’s Weather Channel, where she shared the research of EPDP with the public.
In compliance with the grant agreement, EPDP delivered the FY2-Quarter 4 and FY2 Annual Performance Reports. An updated FY3 Work Plan was also submitted, incorporating comments from USAID. This submission contained the revised Performance Monitoring and Evaluation Plan and the Performance Indicator Reference Sheet that capture the new USAID standard indicators.
4 I. Program Description and Objectives
The Energy Policy and Development Program (EPDP) is a project launched in November 2014 that aims to strengthen the capacity of the Philippine government to formulate coherent and evidence-based policies and strategies for sustainable, reliable, and efficient use of energy resources and technologies. It supports the national government, in particular the National Economic and Development Authority (NEDA) and the Department of Energy (DOE), in policy analysis and formulation for the energy sector. EPDP is being implemented by the UPecon Foundation and is funded by the United States Agency for International Development (USAID).
EPDP’s approach to attaining its objective involves the following key initiatives (as depicted in Figure 1) that also represent EPDP’s four components: • provide the technical foundation for policy development, capacity building, and communications interventions through an energy research program. This entails setting up (i) an energy research program unit to support a mix of policy and operational research on energy and (ii) a data management and analysis unit to lay the groundwork for analysis of energy issues, as well as monitoring and evaluating the impact of energy policies. EPDP’s energy research program acts as the foundational pillar for the other components – i.e., the technical basis for policy development, capacity building, and communication interventions; • provide policy development advisory, initially to NEDA and DOE–EPDP’s core clients–including their attached agencies1 but can be expanded to include legislators, if there is demand; • support capacity building activities for NEDA and DOE and their attached agencies, as well as other stakeholders, such as national government agencies, legislators, and private sector – including support for a pool of energy specialists and practitioners; • support communications activities to share energy-related research and activities with stakeholders in the energy sector.
1 Energy Regulatory Commission (ERC), National Power Corporation (NPC), National Electrification Administration (NEA), and Philippine Statistical Authority (PSA) 5 This report covers EPDP’s performance in Quarter 1 (October – December 2016) of Fiscal Year 3 (FY 3). Section II is a snapshot of key activities in quarter one (Q1). Section III details program component and other cross-cutting activities and achievements. Section IV tackles program management activities and finances. The Annexes provide the supporting documents for this report, including the updated Performance Indicator Tracking Table (PITT) as Annex 1.
II. Snapshot of Activities
Table 1 chronologically lists the activities of EPDP in Q1 with elaborations in the succeeding sections. Annex 2 contains the photo-documentation of these activities.
Table 1. EPDP Activities in FY3-Q1 (October – December 2016) Dates Activities 5 October USAID Implementing Partners Meeting 14 October Core Management Committee (ManCom) Meeting 21 October Expanded ManCom Meeting 26 October Albert Del Rosario Institute (ADRi) Roundtable Discussion on Affordable Electricity: A Requisite for Competitiveness EPDP’s presentation of the working paper “Filipino 2040 Energy: Power Security and Competitiveness” Submission of FY2-Q4 Performance Report
6 Dates Activities 27 October EPDP Lecture Series Session 9 – Energy Efficiency and the Cheapest, Fastest and Most Untapped Resource in the Philippines' Energy Mix by Mr. Alexander Ablaza, President of the Philippine Energy Efficiency Alliance, Inc. 3 November Roundtable discussion with Senator Sherwin Gatchalian and his staff EPDP’s presentations of (i) “Filipino 2040 Energy: Power Security and Competitiveness” and (ii) “The Value Added Tax and Cost of Doing Business: What Contributes More to Electricity Tariffs in the Philippines” 4 November Participation in DOE’s Philippine Energy Plan (PEP) Public Consultation Core ManCom Meeting 7 November First Gen meeting with EPDP on insights of the economics of natural gas 8 November Participation in the Philippine Economic Society Annual Conference EPDP Session: Policy and Practice in the Power Sector: VAT, Bureaucracy, and Carbon Footprint 10 November EPDP Lecture Series Session 10 – An Error Correction Model for Forecasting Philippine Aggregate Electricity Consumption by Dr. Rolando Danao and Dr. Geoffrey Ducanes, EPDP Fellows 11 November Submission of the FY2 Annual Performance Report 16 November 5th EPDP Program Steering Committee Meeting 18 November Submission of the revised FY3 Work Plan 25 November Meeting with USAID and GIZ on “Filipino 2040 Energy: Power Security and Competitiveness” 28 November Expanded ManCom Meeting 1-2 December Participation in the Philippine Electricity Market Corporation’s Electricity Summit 2016 EPDP Session: Energy Policy: Fuel Mix, Bureaucracy, and Forecasting Consumption 9 December Internal Team Planning Meeting and Year-end Meeting 19 December Policy Briefing for senior officials of DOE and its attached agencies
7 III. Program Components
1. Research
Continuous efforts in evidence generation and research dissemination were the highlights of the research component’s first quarter. From the first round of research studies, one more study was completed while one working paper and three policy briefs were released. Two new studies were also added to the second round of research studies. EPDP participated in two national conferences during the quarter to further disseminate its research findings and to provide additional rigor in reviewing the studies through feedback gathered from the conference participants.
A. Research Studies
i. First Round of Research Studies Delivered outputs: technical papers and policy briefs
Q1 of FY3 saw the release of the working paper and policy brief of the study “An Economic and Environmental Analysis of the Impact of Higher-Blended Biodiesel on the Philippine Coconut Industry” by Professor Ruperto Alonzo, and the policy briefs on forecasting electricity consumption by Dr. Rolando Danao and Dr. Geoffrey Ducanes and on the value-added tax (VAT) and cost of doing business in the energy sector by Dr. Ramon Clarete. The research entitled “Energy Choice and Energy Consumption, Weather Variability and Gender: The Philippines’ Case” by Dr. Connie Dacuycuy was also completed this quarter. This study tackles energy issues with a gender perspective.
The peer review process, which has been put in place to further raise the quality of EPDP studies, was undertaken for all completed research studies and policy papers. This involves circulating the technical papers to EPDP fellows and select energy scholars to solicit comments and recommendations for improvement. These papers are progressively being released as working papers in the EPDP website to also elicit comments from the public. The link to the working papers is http://www.upecon.org.ph/epdp/resource- center/library/epdp-products/working-papers/
Table 2 shows the status of the first round of research studies.
Table 2. Status of First Round of EPDP Research Studies Research Study Author Working Paper/ Policy Brief Number Completed FY1 EPDP Studies 1. The Market Testing of Power Supply Raul Fabella WP 2016-03/ Agreements: Rationale and Design Evolution in PB 2016-03 the Philippines 2. An Error Correction Model for Forecasting Rolando Danao WP 2016-05/ Philippine Aggregate Electricity Consumption Geoffrey Ducanes PB 2016-04
8 Research Study Author Working Paper/ Policy Brief Number 3. Lighting up the Last Mile: The Costs and Ujjayant Chakravorty WP 2016-04 Benefits of Extending Electricity to the Rural Kyle Emerick Poor Majah-Leah Ravago 4. Assessment of the Philippine Power Sector Ruperto Alonzo WP and PB are Policy Landscape being revised. 5. The Value Added Tax and Cost of Doing Ramon Clarete WP 2016-06/ Business: What Contributes More to Electricity PB 2016-05 Tariffs in the Philippines 6. The Role of Power Prices in Structural Majah-Leah Ravago WP and PB are Transformation: Evidence from the Philippines Arlan Brucal being revised. JC Punongbayan James Roumasset 7. The Public Economics of Electricity Policy with Majah-Leah Ravago WP and PB are Philippine Applications James Roumasset being revised. 8. Energy Choice and Energy Consumption, Connie Bayudan- WP and PB are Weather Variability and Gender: The Dacuycuy being revised. Philippines’ Case Completed NEDA-Requested Research 9. Filipino 2040 Energy: Power Security and Majah-Leah Ravago WP 2016-01/ Competitiveness* Raul Fabella PB 2016-01 Ruperto Alonzo Rolando Danao Dennis Mapa 10. Filipino 2040: Environmental Resources, James Roumasset WP 2016-02/ Shocks, and National Well-Being* Majah-Leah Ravago PB 2016-02 Karl Jandoc Clarissa Arellano 11. An Economic and Environmental Analysis of Ruperto Alonzo WP2016-07/ the Impact of Higher-blended Biodiesel on PB 2016-06 the Philippine Economy 12. Impact Study of Higher-Blended Biodiesel on Roehlano Briones the Coconut Industry** Rex Demafelis Ongoing 13. Macro-Micro Level Linkage of Energy and Dennis Mapa Poverty: Evidence of Benefits for the Poor Majah-Leah Ravago Manuel Albis Michael del Mundo 14. The Economics and Politics of Power Plant Laarni Escresa Approvals in the Philippines *A study requested by NEDA that was subsequently included in EPDP’s first round of research studies. ** WP and PB were incorporated in WP2016-07 and PB2016-06.
ii. Second Round of Research Studies Delivered outputs: concept notes
During the quarter, one new research study was added in the second round of research namely: “The Links between Gender, Renewable Energy, and Household Welfare: Evidence from the Philippines” by Dr. Marjorie Pajaron.
9 This study again highlights gender elements in the data gathering and analysis of energy-related studies consistent with EPDP’s gender action plan.
Table 3 lists the studies for the second round of research study.
Table 3. List of Studies in the Second Round of Research RESEARCH TOPIC RESEARCH FELLOWS 1. Towards an Economic Model of an Karl Jandoc Integrated Power System Majah-Leah Ravago James Roumasset 2. Power Rates in the Philippines: Causes Majah-Leah Ravago and Implications Arlan Brucal James Roumasset 3. Optimal Energy Mix for Power Romeo Balanquit, Generation in the Philippines Sarah Daway 4. Evaluative Study on the Services of Raul Fabella Electric Cooperatives 5. Forecasting Philippine Sectoral Rolando Danao Electricity Demand Geoffrey Ducanes 6. Impacts of Electricity Prices on Ujjayant Chakravorty Philippine Economy/ Labor Market Kyle Emerick Majah-Leah Ravago 7. The Impact of Energy Prices on Renato Reside Consumption in the Philippines 8. Missionary Electrification Ruperto Alonzo 9. Energy Conservation “Nudges”: Evidence Majah-Leah Ravago, from a Randomized Residential Field Arlan Brucal Experiment in the Philippines* 10. The Links Between Gender, Renewable Marjorie Pajaron Energy, and Household Welfare: Evidence from the Philippines* * Concept notes were approved. Awaiting signed agreements to formalize the engagements.
Meanwhile, the anticipated study entitled “Interconnection of Energy-Water- Food Sectors” initially discussed with the International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI), as reported in FY2 Q4, has been put in abeyance pending further discussion with the new NEDA management.
B. National Conferences: (i) Philippine Economic Society (PES) 54th Annual Meeting, 08 November 2016; and (ii) Philippine Electricity Market Corporation (PEMC) Philippine Electricity Summit, 02 December 2016 Delivered outputs: research dissemination/presentations of select EPDP research studies
EPDP organized and led the session on energy in two national conferences during the quarter. First, it sponsored a session at the PES 54th Annual Meeting with the theme: “Ramping Up Towards Philippines 2040.” It was held at Novotel Manila, Quezon City on 8 November 2016. Second, EPDP partnered 10 with PEMC and organized the session “POWERing Economic Development” in the latter’s Philippine Electricity Summit 2016, which was held at the Marco Polo Hotel in Davao City on 2 December 2016. The conferences allowed further dissemination of EPDP’s research and provided opportunities to engage and gather feedback from various energy stakeholders in attendance. The papers presented in the two conferences are listed in Table 4.
Table 4. National Conferences and Papers Presented CONFERENCE SESSION CHAIR PAPERS PRESENTED PES 54th Annual Dr. Geoffrey 1. Filipino 2040 Energy: Power Meeting: Ramping Ducanes Security and Competitiveness Up Towards – Dr. Majah-Leah Ravago Philippines 2040 2. The Value Added Tax and Red Tape: What Contributes More to EPDP Session: Electricity Tariffs in the Philippines Policy and Practice – Dr. Ramon Clarete in the Power Sector: 3. An Analysis of Time to Regulatory VAT, Bureaucracy, Permit Approval in Philippine and Carbon Electricity Generation Footprint – Dr. Laarni Escresa 4. Blameless in Stratosphere: Carbon Footprint, Manufacturing Growth and the Fuel Mix Debate in the Philippines – Dr. Sarah Daway PEMC Philippine Dr. Sarah 1. Filipino 2040 Energy: Power Electricity Summit Daway Security and Competitiveness 2016: POWERing – Dr. Majah-Leah Ravago Economic 2. An Analysis of Time to Regulatory Development Permit Approval in Philippine Electricity Generation EPDP Session: – Dr. Laarni Escresa Energy Policy: Fuel 3. Forecasting Aggregate Electricity Mix, Bureaucracy, Consumption as Input to the and Forecasting Philippine Energy Plan (PEP) Consumption – Dr. Geoffrey Ducanes
2. Policy Development
For this quarter, EPDP’s sphere of influence continued to expand as an offshoot of its previous engagements with the officials of GPH and stakeholders from the private sector. Requests for briefings and roundtable discussions continue to come in through the policy development component, which provided EPDP opportunities to share substantial inputs for policy makers and implementers.
11 A. Technical Assistance to NEDA and DOE
i. Technical Advisory Note (TAN) “Forecasting Aggregate Electricity Consumption in the Philippines” in line with the Ambisyon Natin 2040, and TAN on Executive Course on Competition and Regulation in the Philippine Power Sector Ongoing Delivered output: TAN
EPDP issued and circulated the TAN “Forecasting Aggregate Electricity Consumption in the Philippines” to the members of the Program Steering Committee (PSC). The TAN proposed a forecasting model for aggregate electricity consumption that DOE and NEDA can use in preparation for the Philippine Development Plan and Power Development Plan. It presented the econometric model developed by EPDP Fellows, Dr. Rolando Danao and Dr. Geoffrey Ducanes of EPDP. The model is based on the relationship between electricity consumption and its drivers – gross domestic product, electricity price, and temperature.
The authors are available to further discuss the TAN with DOE and NEDA.
Annex 3 is the TAN “Forecasting Aggregate Electricity Consumption in the Philippines.”
Meanwhile, EPDP management also decided to defer the release of the TAN that contains recommendations on issues and concerns in the transmission sector that were discussed during the Executive Course in September 2016. The recommendations raise some legal issues that would require thorough legal review of a lawyer.
ii. Policy Briefing for Senior Officials of the Department of Energy and its Attached Agencies Delivered outputs: policy briefing; presentations
The PSC meeting on 16 November 2016 paved the way for the new GPH officials to gain a firmer grasp of EPDP’s efforts in helping GPH develop coherent and evidence-based policies and strategies for a more cost-effective use of energy resources. Secretary Cusi requested EPDP to conduct a separate briefing of its completed studies to DOE senior officials and heads of its attached agencies.
In response, EPDP organized the “Policy Briefing for the Department of Energy” on 19 December 2016 at the University of the Philippines Bonifacio Global City in Taguig City. It served as a venue to present and discuss with DOE senior officials the findings and recommendations of selected EPDP completed studies. The analyses provided DOE a wider perspective to effectively develop policies and implement energy programs and projects. Table 5 shows the studies presented during the briefing.
12 DOE chose these studies to be presented in the policy briefing. It was agreed that the other completed studies can be presented in the next policy briefing to be organized in 2017.
Table 5. Research Studies Presented During the Policy Briefing for DOE Research Study Presenter/s 1. Filipino 2040 Energy: Power Security and Dr. Majah-Leah V. Ravago Competitiveness 2. The Market Testing of Power Supply Dr. Raul Fabella Agreements: Rationale and Design Evolution in the Philippines 3. The Value-Added Tax and Red Tape: What Dr. Ramon Clarete Contributes More to Electricity Tariffs in the Philippines 4. An Analysis of Time to Regulatory Permit Dr. Laarni Escresa Approval in Philippine Electricity Generation 5. Assessment of the Philippine Power Sector Prof. Ruperto Alonzo Policy Landscape 6. An Economic and Environmental Analysis of Prof. Ruperto Alonzo the Impact of Higher-Blended Biodiesel on the Philippine Coconut Industry 7. Forecasting Aggregate Electricity Dr. Rolando Danao and Dr. Consumption as Input to the Philippine Geoffrey Ducanes Energy Plan 8. Blameless in Stratosphere: The Philippines Dr. Sarah Lynne Daway CO2 Emission Reduction and Inclusive Growth* * Not an EPDP research study
Present in the Policy Briefing were 54 senior officials and staff – 28 male, 26 female – from DOE and their attached agencies: National Transmission Corporation (TransCo), NPC, Power Sector Assets and Liabilities Management Corporation (PSALM), Philippine National Oil Company Exploration Corporation (PNOC-EC), and PEMC. Four representatives from NEDA – 3 male, 1 female – were also in attendance to foster close coordination with DOE. iii. DOE’s Survey on the Governance Structure of Wholesale Electricity Markets Delivered outputs: accomplished questionnaire on wholesale electricity markets in US, Europe, Asia, and South America; analysis of advantages and disadvantages of different kinds of governance structures in wholesale electricity markets; TAN
To determine the suitable governance structure of an Independent Market Operator (IMO) in accordance with the Electric Power Industry Reform Act (EPIRA), DOE sent request letters to foreign embassies in the Philippines to secure responses from relevant entities in their respective countries to a questionnaire about the structure of wholesale electricity markets.
To offer DOE an analysis on the governance structure of an IMO for the wholesale electricity spot market (WESM), EPDP complemented this with
13 online research on various governance structures of wholesale electricity markets in the United States, Europe, Asia and South America. In addition, a TAN has also been prepared offering analyses of the advantages and disadvantages of different types of governance structures.
EPDP contemplated presenting this information and analyses during the Policy Briefing. But given the time constraint, EPDP will just explore arranging another meeting with DOE officials.
Under the EPIRA, WESM operations must be turned over to an IMO 12 months after its operations began. Since WESM started operations in 2006, it is still being operated by PEMC, the designated Autonomous Group Market Operator (AGMO).
B. Strengthening Institutional Linkages with the Private Sector Delivered outputs: presentations, meeting minutes
Strengthening institutional linkages with the government and private sector remains at the core of EPDP’s strategies to enhance GPH’s capacity to formulate coherent and evidence-based energy policies, programs, and projects. Hence, EPDP continues to respond promptly to invitations and requests for presentations from interested government officials and the private sector.
i. Albert del Rosario Institute (ADRi) Roundtable Discussion, 26 October 2016, Oakwood Premier Joy-Nostalg Center, Ortigas Center, Pasig City
Q1 kicked off with an invitation to serve as resource persons at the ADRi roundtable discussion on "Affordable Electricity: A Requisite for Competitiveness." ADRi is an independent international and strategic research organization aiming to address the issues affecting the Philippines and East Asia through, among other things, fostering ideas and creating a venue for collaboration and cooperation. EPDP responded by sending Dr. Majah-Leah Ravago to present the Filipino 2040 energy paper on power security and competitiveness. The roundtable discussion was attended by a select multi- sectoral group interested in various energy issues. Annex 4 is the program of ADRi’s roundtable discussion.
ii. Roundtable discussion with Senator Sherwin Gatchalian, 3 November 2016, One Corporate Center, Ortigas Center, Pasig City
EPDP also organized another roundtable discussion upon the request of Senator Sherwin Gatchalian, Chairperson of the Senate Committees on Energy and Economic Affairs. During the meeting, EPDP presented two of its studies to the Senator and his technical consultants and staff – (a) “Filipino 2040 Energy: Power Security and Competitiveness” and (b) “The Value-Added Tax and Red Tape: What Contributes More to Electricity Tariffs in the Philippines.”
Recognizing the importance of policy research, Senator Gatchalian signified his support for an academic institution to generate evidence and analyses that will
14 inform policy development and implementation. To this end, he disclosed his plan to propose the establishment of an energy policy institute within a university. Annex 5 is a copy of Senate Bill No. 1290, “An Act Establishing the Philippine Energy Research and Policy Development Institute, Defining its Objectives, Powers and Functions, Providing Funds Therefor, and for Other Purposes,” filed by Senator Gatchalian in December 2016.
Senator Gatchalian’s invitation came after meeting some EPDP fellows in an earlier ADRi roundtable discussion where the Senator was one of the resource persons.
iii. First Gen Meeting with EPDP 7 November 2016, EPDP Meeting Room, UP- Diliman, Quezon City
First Gen met with EPDP on 7 November 2016 to discuss and explore possible areas for collaboration. As agreed, First Gen will be included in the mailing list of EPDP for updates on upcoming lectures, conferences, forum, and other EPDP activities. Moreover, First Gen expressed its willingness to be tapped as one of the lecturers in the EPDP lecture series.
3. Capacity Building
In line with EPDP’s mandate to assist academic activities in tertiary institutions with the aim to produce a constant stream of energy policy specialists and practitioners, the capacity building component augmented its long-term support to the University of the Philippines – School of Economics (UPSE) in Q1. EPDP has confirmed that its support for the curriculum review of UPSE has been approved, while the call for grant applications for energy-related theses and dissertations will be issued for the graduate students of UPSE.
A. Long Term Capacity Building: Curriculum Review Outputs: contracts with curriculum reviewers (completed); recommendations on the revision of the undergraduate and graduate curricula (ongoing)
EPDP saw UPSE’s curriculum review as an opportunity to sustain the gains in building and maintaining a constant stream of energy professionals and practitioners. This could also boost efforts to establish UPSE’s reputation as a premier institution in energy policy research.
The UPSE faculty will conduct the review. The adoption of a revised curriculum will be based on the University’s approval protocols. While the outcome is beyond EPDP’s control, this effort is geared to formally embed energy-related topics and courses in UPSE’s undergraduate and graduate curricula, which will enhance the sustainability of EPDP’s capacity-building program.
15 B. Long Term Capacity Building: Thesis and Dissertation Grants Outputs: call for proposal (completed); research contracts with the grantees (forthcoming); expertise in the field of energy research (continuous)
EPDP opened slots for thesis and dissertation grants for UPSE graduate students starting in Academic Year 2016-2017. This grant is among EPDP’s support to UPSE to establish the latter’s reputation as a “premier institution in energy policy research,” building on its existing technical and institutional foundations. Specifically, it aims to encourage graduate students to undertake theses or dissertations that are related to energy economics. The number of grants will depend on the qualified applicants.
A call for submission of proposal will be released through the Graduate Admission and Fellowship Office of UPSE.
C. Long-Term Capacity Building: Faculty Research Grant Outputs: research grant contract as instrument (completed); research paper, policy brief, and lecture/brown-bag session (forthcoming)
In line with its objective of producing a pool of energy experts that the GPH may tap in the future, EPDP provides research grants to encourage other members of the academe, outside of the core EPDP team, to undertake energy-related research and other significant output that will be of the highest standards and with excellent socio-economic potential.
Currently, EPDP has one ongoing research grant. A new research proposal, “The Links between Gender, Renewable Energy, and Household Welfare: Evidence from the Philippines,” submitted by Dr. Marjorie Pajaron of UPSE was approved by EPDP. A research grant is being prepared to formalize the engagement. This will also form part of EPDP’s second round of research studies.
4. Communications
In supporting the program’s continued and increasing engagement with policy makers and energy stakeholders, the Communications Component improved existing communications platforms, methods and internal operating processes. All of these helps in refining overall performance and offer stronger support to the other components, especially given the dip in resources available this fiscal year.
This quarter, the Communications Component focused on copyediting and finishing the layout of the FY2 Annual Report, completing and launching the databank, and installing a tracker to monitor the number of products being downloaded from the EPDP website.
16 B. EPDP Website and Resource Center Ongoing outputs: enhanced website and EPDP resource center
After website enhancement in the previous quarter, the team regularly updated the website and troubleshoot, when needed. The download monitor, completed in late September, was put into use this quarter. A total of 215 downloads between October to December 2016 was recorded. The EPDP products downloaded include working papers, policy briefs, newsletters, presentations, activity syntheses and speeches. This number already constitutes about 35% of the 600 downloads target for FY3.
Figure 2 is the Google Analytics data showing that, as of 31 December 2016, the EPDP website has had 2,234 users (over a thousand users more since the 1,227 total from last quarter) and 20,413 page views since 11 May 2016, when Analytics was installed. 2,234 users correspond to around 90% of the 2500 target for this fiscal year.
Figure 2. Google Analytics data covering 11 May 2016 – 31 December 2016
The databank was completed and launched this quarter, and will also be updated regularly.
C. Communications-specific products and activities Delivered outputs: newsletter, social media updates/posts
Newsletter vol. 2 no. 2 was released in October 2016 through the program’s website and Facebook page. It was also emailed to about 800 recipients in EPDP’s mailing list. Annex 6 is EPDP Newsletter vol. 2 no. 2. The newsletter can also be found at http://www.upecon.org.ph/epdp/communications/.
In addition to the website, the Component continuously maintains and manages the social media accounts of EPDP, expanding the potential reach of EPDP to include those that are not captured by the mailing list or are more accustomed to social media. Through these platforms, more stakeholders are informed about products and activities across the various EPDP components.
17 As of 31 December 2016, EPDP directly reached at least 1,235 followers on Facebook, Twitter, LinkedIn, and Instagram combined. Likes on EPDP’s Facebook page increased from 638 to 797 this quarter, a total of 159 likes more. In comparison, the previous quarter saw an increase of only 44 likes. Even with only this number of likes on Facebook, posts can reach up to four times that number of individuals because of tags and shares. For example, on 3 October 2016 post engagement reached 3,235. Figures 3 and 4 present EPDP’s Facebook likes and Facebook reach.
Energy-related content in local news is still monitored regularly by the Component. Relevant content is sent via email to EPDP fellows, researchers, research assistants, and USAID partners weekly.
Figure 3. EPDP Facebook Likes on 1 October 2016 and on 31 December 2016
18 Figure 4. EPDP’s Reach in FY3-Q1
D. Communications support Delivered outputs: photo documentations, collaterals, copy edited materials
The Communications Component continually supports other components through the photo documentation of activities; composition, design, and production of collaterals such as posters, banners, certificates, and invitations; social media and online promotion of activities and products; post-activity updates on social media; and writing, proofreading, and/or copy editing of products and report contents.
For Q1, the Component documented about six EPDP activities, including lecture series sessions, participation in a national conference, a policy briefing, and meetings; copy edited papers, internal documents, letters, and proposals; and packaged the FY2 Annual Report.
E. EPDP in the News
i. DOSTv (10 October 2016)
EPDP Program Director Dr. Majah-Leah Ravago was featured in DOSTv's Weather Channel. In the interview, Dr. Ravago talked about her career in economics, explained the objectives of EPDP, and expounded on how the synergy of economics and science in the field of energy can help spur development and growth in the Philippines. (The interview starts at
19 35 min: 00sec.) The video can be viewed at: https://www.facebook.com/DOSTvPH/videos/1105203849526761/
ii. The Manila Times | “New energy policy anchors on nation’s needs” by Aberon Voltaire Palaña (10 October 2016)
This piece talks about the new administration’s accomplishments and plans with regard to energy and mentions EPDP as one of DOE’s partners in finding the right energy mix for the country. Annex 7 is the news article, which can also be accessed at: http://www.manilatimes.net/new-energy-policy- anchors-nations-needs/290527/
5. Cross-Cutting
This section captures the activities that are being carried out across various components, contributing to multiple Program objectives or having across-the- board implications. These include high-level meetings, monitoring and evaluation, gender initiative, and the lecture series.
In Q1, the Program continued the lecture series with the intention to build capacities, offer venues for multi-stakeholder interaction, and disseminate research. EPDP also submitted the FY2-Q4 and the FY2 Annual performance reports and the updated FY3 work plan in a timely manner. The work plan included the revised Performance Monitoring and Evaluation Plan (PMEP) and Performance Indicator Reference Sheet (PIRS), which captured the new USAID standard indicators. In addition, EPDP provided inputs for USAID’s data quality assessment process and portfolio review.
C. EPDP Lecture Series Outputs: lectures (delivered), expertise in the field of energy research (continuous)
Launched in March 2016, the Lecture Series offers a mechanism to support various program objectives. It contributes in (i) building short- and long-term capacities by providing holistic understanding of the country’s electric power industry; (ii) engaging with the government, practitioners, professionals and other energy stakeholders on EPDP research studies; and (iii) disseminating the research studies to the public and raising their awareness on various energy- related issues.
EPDP organized the Lecture Series to gather energy experts and practitioners from government, the academe, and the private sector, and provide them with a neutral platform to exchange ideas and insights on the sector.
The Lecture Series also contributes towards the establishment of academic and policy programs specific to the energy sector in institutions of tertiary education. By bringing in energy experts and professionals, EPDP aims to integrate energy concepts into regular graduate and undergraduate courses in economics, and encourage more policy research. 20 In Q1, EPDP organized two lectures, as follows: i. Energy Efficiency and the Cheapest, Fastest and Most Untapped Resource in the Philippines’ Energy Mix, 27 October 2016
This lecture emphasized the need for the country to have integrated resource planning that regard energy efficiency as a real resource. It was underscored in the lecture that energy efficiency is the cheapest energy resource and incentives should be put in place to encourage the private sector to invest in it. The crucial role of evidence and economic research in supporting the 2016- 2017 Energy Efficiency Policy Reform Agenda was also stressed during the presentation. This lecture was delivered by Mr. Alexander Ablaza, President of the Philippine Energy Efficiency Alliance, Inc.
27 participants – 17 male and 10 female – from government, the academe, and the private sector attended the lecture. ii. An Error Correction Model for Forecasting Philippine Aggregate Electricity Consumption, 10 November 2016
The lecture discussed forecasting Philippine aggregate electricity consumption using an error correction model. The model is based on the relationship between electricity consumption and its drivers – gross domestic product, electricity price, and temperature. The lecture was delivered by EPDP Fellows, Dr. Rolando Danao and Dr. Geoffrey Ducanes.
19 participants – 10 male and 9 female – from government, the academe, and the private sector attended the lecture.
Table 6 below summarizes the four-part evaluation accomplished by the participants for the two lectures, on a scale of 1 (Poor) to 5 (Excellent).
Table 6. Summary Ratings of the EPDP Lectures Average Rating Key Areas Forecasting Electricity Energy Efficiency Consumption Overall Rating 4.31 out of 5 4.52 out of 5 (Very Good) (Very Good to Excellent) Achievement of 4.35 out of 5 4.41 out of 5 Objectives Relevance and 4.07 out of 5 4.47 out of 5 Usefulness Content and 4.38 out of 5 4.39 out of 5 Delivery Administrative 4.09 out of 5 4.65 out of 5 and Logistical Arrangements
21 D. Performance Monitoring and Evaluation Plan Delivered outputs: updated PMEP and PIRS
To capture the new USAID standard indicators, EPDP revised the recently updated PMEP and the PIRS. These were attached to the revised FY3 work plan, which incorporated USAID comments.
The Program also provided inputs for USAID’s data quality assessment and the portfolio review. This involved identifying indicators and respective out-year targets that will be regularly reported to Washington.
IV. Program Management
1. Program Steering Committee Meeting
The Program convened the EPDP PSC meeting on 16 November 2016 at the NEDA Board Room. This was the first for the new set of NEDA and DOE senior officials and for the fiscal year. It was a timely follow-through from EPDP’s courtesy calls on the new set of NEDA and DOE officials in the last quarter of FY2. It was also an opportunity to discuss the priorities and updates from the government partners and secure reconfirmation of the FY3 planned activities, including the second round of research studies, from the new set of PSC members.
Annex 8 is the draft of the PSC meeting highlights.
2. Revised FY3 Work Plan and Internal EPDP Team Planning
USAID’s comments on the FY3 Work Plan were incorporated in an updated FY3 Work Plan. The submission also included the revised PMEP and PITT.
Following PSC reconfirmation of the FY3 Work Plan, EPDP held an internal team planning on 9 December 2016 at Hive Hotel and Convention Place, Quezon City. The team discussed the revised work plan, fleshed out the details of the programmed activities and identified the contributions of each activity vis-à-vis the performance indicators. This session prepared the program team to do more even with lesser resources. Among the key activities for the remaining period of the year include two policy fora, one additional policy briefing for senior officials in DOE and NEDA, two mid-level training courses for GPH partners, an executive course for senior GPH officials, a joint policy-research workshop, educational visits, and the Lecture Series.
22 3. Performance Reports
This quarter was also spent preparing for the timely submission of the FY2-Q4 and the FY2 Annual performance reports. Overall, EPDP reported an impressive performance in FY2. It exceeded its second fiscal year’s targets (October 2015 – September 2016). Beyond expectations, EPDP has already made direct and tangible contributions to improve decision- and policy-making that supports cost-effective and environmentally-sound energy development. Ambisyon Natin 2040, an articulation of the long-term vision and aspirations of Filipinos for themselves and for the country by 2040, includes two thematic papers by EPDP – (i) Energy: Power Security and Competitiveness and (ii) Environmental Resources, Shocks and National Well-being. Executive Order 5, issued on 11 October 2016, formally adopted Ambisyon Natin 2040 to guide the development planning of the next four Philippine government administrations. EPDP also managed to implement most of the planned activities and made notable progress vis-à-vis its three intermediate result areas.
4. Human Resource
EPDP successfully recruited a new Policy and Capacity Building Associate in Q1. Ms. Jennylene Layaoen joined the team in late October 2016. However, one part-time personnel left to take on a full-time position in a government agency. The vacated position was dissolved.
In addition, two EPDP personnel – Deputy Program Director (DPD) and Program Administrative Assistant – also tendered their resignations this quarter. Both will be ending their engagements by January 2017. The recruitment process for the DPD position has been initiated. The EPDP management has also considered offering full-time engagements to the remaining part-time EPDP personnel to address the immediate gaps and the additional manpower requirement when the activities will start to pick up in Q2.
As of end December 2016, EPDP positions (excluding the Advisors and Data Management Unit Manager) were further brought down from 14 to 13, nine of whom are full-time and four are part-time. The program team has 11 females and 2 males. Figure 5 captures EPDP’s organizational chart and the existing positions and personnel as of end December 2016.
23 Figure 5: EPDP Team in FY3-Q1 (as of 31 December 2016)
24 Annexes
Annex 1 Performance Indicator Tracking Table (as of 31 December 2016) Annex 2 Photo documentation of EPDP FY3 Quarter 1 Activities Annex 3 Technical Advisory Note on Forecasting Aggregate Electricity Consumption in the Philippines
Annex 4 Albert del Rosario Research Institute Roundtable Discussion Program
Annex 5 Senate Bill 1290 - An Act Establishing the Philippine Energy Research and Policy Development Institute, Defining its Objectives, Powers and Functions, Providing Funds Therefor, and for Other Purposes
Annex 6 EPDP Newsletter vol. 2 no.2
Annex 7 The Manila Times news article “New Energy Policy Anchors on Nation’s Needs”
Annex 8 Draft Highlights of the 16 November 2016 Program Steering Committee Meeting
28 Annex 1. Performance Indicator Tracking Table (PITT) for FY3 Indicators in red fonts are new standard USAID indicators Logical Framework Narrative Summary and USAID Standard Unit of Baseline FY3 Indicators Indicator? Y=Yes/ Measure N=No Year Value Target Rationale Planned Actual (With Budget Cut)* (W/ Budget (Q1) Cut)*
Goal: Decision-making environment to support cost-effective and clean energy development improved Indicator G: Number of laws, policies, regulations, or Y: EG.7.3-1 Number FY2 2 new adiministration may need more time to 0 0 standards to enhance energy sector governance formally (2015- assess the issues and decide on policies to adopt; proposed, adopted or implemented as supported by USG 2016) EPDP still to build relationships with the new assistance heads of agencies; Project Purpose: GPH capacity to formulate coherent and evidence-based policies and strategies for cost-effective and environmentally-sound energy development strengthened
Indicator PP: Number of EPDP-supported research N: Custom Number FY2 2 new adiministration may need more time to 1 0 outputs that served as inputs to draft government (2015- assess the issues and decide on policies to adopt; plans/policy frameworks/implementation 2016) EPDP still to build relationships with the new guidelines/administrative procedures heads of agencies
Sub-Purpose 1: Improved GPH capacity to guide and inform energy-related policy and practice through enhanced research Indicator SP1: Number of EPDP-supported research N: Custom Number FY2 4 completed EPDP studies are already available 3 0 outputs with NEDA, DOE and other relevant GPH agencies (2015- but commitment to utilize in the formulation, implementation 2016) EPDP still to build relationships with the new and monitoring & evaluation of energy-related policies, heads of agencies breakdown by: a) Demand-driven outputs - Research N: Custom b) Demand-driven outputs - Just in-time N: Custom c) Supply-driven outputs N: Custom Sub-Purpose 1 Output 1: Institutional platform to provide evidence-based advice and inputs to energy policy and strategies is established Indicator SP1-O1.1 Number of government requests N: Custom Number FY2 51 limited ability to seek out technical assistance 30 6 received for EPDP policy research support or technical (2015- needs of GPH due to budget cut; EPDP still to assistance 2016) build relationship with the new heads of agencies; GPH already previously conveyed requests Indicator SP1-O1.2 Number of key priority areas (KPAs) N: Custom Number FY2 3 maintain KPAs so as not to spread limited 3 3 cumulative coverage out of 5 identified KPA in the (2015- resources too thinly approved research agenda 2016) Indicator SP1-O1.3: Number of research studies on N: Custom Number FY2 15 programmed research based on budget for FY3 9 9 energy fields or climate change supported by EPDP (2015- 2016) Logical Framework Narrative Summary and USAID Standard Unit of Baseline FY3 Indicators Indicator? Y=Yes/ Measure N=No Year Value Target Rationale Planned Actual (With Budget Cut)* (W/ Budget (Q1) Cut)*
Sub-Purpose 2: Increased capacity of GPH to undertake and sustain coherent and evidence-based energy policy & decision-making Indicator SP2.1: Number of institutions with improved Y EG.11-2 Number FY2 11 limited resources to accommodate all interested 5 0 capacity to assess or address climate change risks (2015- agencies in training courses supported by USG assistance 2016) a. national governmental Y EG.11-2a FY2 0 5 b. subnational governmental Y EG.11-2b (2015-FY2 0 0 c. others Y EG.11-2c (2015- 0 Indicator SP2.2 Number of institutions with improved N: Custom Number FY2 20 limited resources to accommodate all interested 5 0 capacity to address other energy issues as a result of USG (2015- agencies in training courses assistance 2016) Sub-Purpose 2 Output 1: Increased training of GPH officials and staff in the use of research/analytical tools for energy policy planning & decision-making Indicator SP2-01.1: Number of people trained in clean Y EG.12-1 Number FY2 37 based on 2 programmed capacity-building 50 0 energy supported by USG assistance (2015- activities with 25 participants each 2016) a. male Y EG.12-1a FY2 17 25 b. female Y EG.12-1b FY2 20 25 Indicator SP2-01.2: Number of people trained in Y EG.7.3-2 Number FY2 123 based on 2 programmed capacity-building 50 technical energy fields supported by USG assistance (2015- activities with 25 participants each 2016) a. male Y EG.7.3-2a FY2 64 25 b. female Y EG.7.3-2b (2015-FY2 59 25 Indicator SP2-O1.3: Percentage of capacity building N: Custom Percentage(2015- FY2 82.41% 85% participants that find the training/workshop “relevant” (2015- (relevant and/or “satisfactory” 2016) ); 100% (satisfact ory) Logical Framework Narrative Summary and USAID Standard Unit of Baseline FY3 Indicators Indicator? Y=Yes/ Measure N=No Year Value Target Rationale Planned Actual (With Budget Cut)* (W/ Budget (Q1) Cut)*
Sub Purpose 2 Output 2: Partnership with other institutions in place Indicator SP2-O2.1: Number of faculty or teaching staff N: Custom Number FY2 74 based on a scaled down FY3 work plan due to 40 18 whose qualifications are strengthened through (2015- budget cut; no conference programmed EPDP/USG-supported tertiary education program, 2016) breakdown by: a. Male N: Custom FY2 47 24 12 (2015- 2016) b. Female N: Custom FY2 27 16 6 (2015- 2016) Indicator SP2-O2.2: Number of students or energy N: Custom, a variant Number FY2 446 based on a scaled down FY3 work plan due to 105 47 practitioners whose qualifications are strengthened of the above (2015- budget cut through EPDP/USG-supported program, breakdown by: indicator to capture 2016) students and energy a. Male N: Custom FY2 209 42 27 (2015- 2016) b. Female N: Custom FY2 237 63 20 (2015- 2016) c. Sector: private sector N: Custom FY2 88 20 16 (2015- 2016) d. Sector: academe N: Custom FY2 268 60 18 (2015- 2016) e. Sector: government N: Custom FY2 90 25 13 (2015- 2016) f. Specialization: clean energy N: Custom FY2 67 10 0 (2015- 2016) g. Specialization: climate change N: Custom FY2 11 5 0 (2015- 2016) h. Specialization: other energy N: Custom FY2 372 90 47 (2015- 2016) Logical Framework Narrative Summary and USAID Standard Unit of Baseline FY3 Indicators Indicator? Y=Yes/ Measure N=No Year Value Target Rationale Planned Actual (With Budget Cut)* (W/ Budget (Q1) Cut)*
Indicator SP2-O2.3: Number of energy-related N: Custom Number FY2 16 based on a scaled down FY3 work plan due to 17 3 educational activities supported by EPDP, breakdown by: (2015- budget cut 2016) a. clean energy N: Custom 2 0 b. climate change N: Custom 1 0 c. other energy N: Custom 14 3 Indicator SP2-O2.4: Number of education N: Custom Number FY2 5 5 0 program/subjects/modules that incorporated energy- (2015- related topics as a result of USG assistance 2016) Sub-purpose 3: Increased capacity to share results of energy-related and complementary economic research
Indicator SP3:Number of presentations in national & N: Custom Number FY2 41 based on a scaled down FY3 work plan due to 17 9 international conferences/seminars or citations in media, (2015- budget cut public and legislative discussions of EPDP-supported 2016) research outputs. Subpurpose 3 Output 1: Increased exposure of researchers to scientific community; researchers are increasingly informed regarding developments in the energy sector
Indicator SP3-O1.1: Number of research outputs N: Custom Number FY2 0 not priority 0 0 developed with EPDP assistance published in peer- (2015- reviewed journals 2016) Indicator SP3-O1.2: Number of EPDP-supported N: Custom Number FY2 66 selected participation in local and international 20 23 researchers and staff participating in local and (2015- conferences, training, fora international energy-related conferences, training or 2016) fora, breakdown by a. Male N: Custom 34 12 7 b. Female N: Custom 32 8 16 Subpurpose 3 Output 2 Increased engagement with stakeholders for raising awareness and building understanding
Indicator SP3-O2.1: Number of EPDP-led N: Custom Number FY2 8 based on a scaled down FY3 work plan due to 2 2 conferences/stakeholder fora/roundtable discussions (2015- budget cut held, breakdown by specific stakeholders targeted, 2016) a. government decision makers N: Custom 1 2 b. private sector N: Custom c. others - multi-sector N: Custom 1 Logical Framework Narrative Summary and USAID Standard Unit of Baseline FY3 Indicators Indicator? Y=Yes/ Measure N=No Year Value Target Rationale Planned Actual (With Budget Cut)* (W/ Budget (Q1) Cut)*
Indicator SP3-O2.2: Number of stakeholders that N: Custom Number FY2 249 based on a scaled down FY3 work plan due to 80 65 participated in conferences/stakeholder fora/roundtable (2015- budget cut discussions, breakdown by: 2016) a. Male N: Custom 48 36 b. Female N: Custom 32 29 c. Sector: Government N: Custom 40 65 d. Sector: Private N: Custom 30 0 e. Sector: Others N: Custom 10 0 Indicator SP3-02.3: Number of EPDP products N: Custom Number 2016 10 newly installed application captures the 600 215 downloaded or requested downloads of products in the website Indicator SP3-02.4: Number of private stakeholders that N: Custom Number FY2 24 based on a scaled down FY3 work plan due to 5 1 served as a technical resource to EPDP-supported (2015- budget cut activities 2016) Indicator SP3-02.5: Number of cumulative website N: Custom Number FY2 1318 newly installed google analytics can capture 2500 2,234 visitors (2015- unique visitors 2016) Indicator SP3-02.6: Number of platforms for distribution N: Custom Number FY2 5 No more mass media 4 4 of EPDP products (2015- 2016) * Budget for FY3 at $385K Notes: Indicators are for the entire program period. For the definitions/details, please refer to the Performance Monitoring and Evaluation Plan (PMEP) and Performance Indicator Reference Sheet (PIRS) as of November 2016. Annex 2. Photo Documentation of EPDP FY3 Quarter 1 Activities
Roundtable discussion "Affordable Electricity: A Requisite for Competitiveness" held by the Stratbase Albert Del Rosario Institute
26 October 2016 at Oakwood Premier Joy-Nostalg Center, Ortigas Center, Pasig City
Lecture Series Session 9: Energy Efficiency and the Cheapest, Fastest, and Most Untapped Resource in the Philippines’ Energy Mix by Mr. Alexander Ablaza
27 October 2016 at University of the Philippines - School of Economics, Diliman, Quezon City
Meeting with Sen. Sherwin Gatchalian
3 November 2016 at One Corporate Center, Ortigas Center, Pasig City Meeting with First Gen
7 November 2016 at EPDP Meeting Room, Concordia Albarracin Hall, UP Diliman, Quezon City
54th P S
hilippine Economics ociety 54th Annual Meeting EPDP Session: Policy and Practice in the Power Sector: VAT, Bureaucracy, and Carbon Footprint 8 November 2016 at Novotel, Quezon City
Lecture Series Session 10: An Error Correction Model for Forecasting Philippine Aggregate Electricity Consumption by Dr. Rolando Danao and Dr. Geoffrey Ducanes
10 November 2016 at University of the Philippine - School of Economics, Diliman, Quezon City Program Steering Committee Meeting
16 November 2016 at NEDA sa Pasig Building, Ortigas Center, Pasig City
Philippine Electricity Summit 2016
EPDP Session: Energy Policy: Fuel Mix, Bureaucracy, and Forecasting Consumption 2 December 2016 at Marco Polo Hotel, Davao City Internal Planning Team Meeting
EPDP 9 December 2016 at Hive Hotel and Convention Place, Quezon City Policy Briefing for the Department of Energy
19 December 2016 at University of the Philippine - Bonifacio Global City, Taguig City Annex 3. Technical Advisory Note on Forecasting Aggregate Electricity Consumption in the Philippines
Reference No. 2016-TAN-111501
15 November 2016
HON. ERNESTO M. PERNIA Socio-Economic Planning Secretary and Director General National Economic and Development Authority
HON. ALFONSO G. CUSI Secretary Department of Energy
DR. SUSAN K. BREMS Mission Director United States Agency for International Development/Philippines
PROF. ORVILLE JOSE C. SOLON Chair UPecon Foundation, Inc.
MR. ROMEO L. BERNARDO Managing Director Lazaro Bernardo Tiu and Associates
Dear Members of the Program Steering Committee:
The Energy Policy and Development Program (EPDP) transmits, for your information and reference, the enclosed technical advisory note on Forecasting Aggregate Electricity Consumption in the Philippines in line with Ambisyon Natin 2040.
Primarily, the technical advisory would like to propose a forecasting model for aggregate electricity consumption for use by the National Economic and Development Authority and the Department of Energy in the preparation of the Philippine Development Plan and the Power Development Plan.
To this end, we hope that the technical advisory note assists policy decisions of GPH officials. EPDP is willing to provide the necessary training to the technical staff who might be assigned to use this forecasting model for aggregate electricity consumption.
Thank you very much.
Sincerely yours,
MAJAH-LEAH V. RAVAGO, PhD Program Director Energy Policy and Development Program
PROF. RUPERTO P. ALONZO Policy Development Component Advisor Energy Policy and Development Program
CC : Undersecretary ADORACION M. NAVARO, NEDA Undersecretary ROLANDO G. TUNGPALAN, NEDA Undersecretary FELIX WILLIAM B. FUENTEBELLA, DOE Undersecretary JESUS CRISTINO P. POSADAS, DOE Director JESUS T. TAMANG, DOE Agreement Officer’s Representative GIL DY-LIACCO, USAID/Philippines Alternate AOR LEONILA GUTIERREZ, USAID/Philippines TAN-20161115-FY3-1
Technical Advisory on Forecasting Aggregate Electricity Consumption in the Philippines in line with Ambisyon Natin 2040 15 November 2016
This technical advisory is to propose a forecasting model for aggregate electricity consumption for use by the National Economic and Development Authority and the Department of Energy in the preparation of the Philippine Development Plan and the Power Development Plan. In 2015, the Energy Policy and Development Program (EPDP) commissioned Prof. Rolando Danao and Prof. Geoffrey Ducanes, UP Diliman Faculty and EPDP Fellows to develop an econometric model that can be used to forecast aggregate electricity consumption. EPDP deemed it important to develop a good forecasting model for aggregate electricity consumption because severely overestimating or underestimating future electricity consumption can be very costly to the economy –the former because it might lead the government and the private sector to over-invest in power (and possibly enter into onerous contracts) and thus take away resources from other more productive uses, and the latter because insufficient power will constrain the economy, especially given the long gestation period of power projects. Profs. Danao and Ducanes used annual data from the Department of Energy, the Philippine Statistical Authority, and other sources and completed their study in October 2016. The study has undergone peer review and has been presented in various forums, such as the Philippine Economic Society Annual Meeting held in Hotel Intercontinental in November 2015, the EPDP Conference held in New World Hotel in January 2016, the National Social Science Congress held in Lyceum of the Philippines – Batangas City in June 2016, and an EPDP seminar among energy sector stakeholders held at the UP School of Economics in November 2016. The forecasting model that Profs. Danao and Ducanes developed is an Error Correction Model (EC Model) that relates aggregate electricity consumption with real GDP, electricity price, and average temperature. EC models are popularly used in forecasting electricity consumption because of several attractive features, such as linking short-run dynamics and long-run equilibrium relationships, allowing for a richer dynamic structure, and avoiding spurious regressions. EC models are especially very useful for answering ‘what if’ type questions, such as ‘What happens to aggregate electricity consumption if GDP grows by 6% per year for the next 20 years?’ or ‘What happens to aggregate electricity consumption if real price of electricity declines by 1% over the next 5 years?’ and similar other questions. For example, current simulations undertaken using the model shows that if GDP grows by 6% per year up to 2030, and price and temperature remain at their historical trends, then aggregate electricity consumption will grow by 3.4% per year and be at 133 thousand GWh by 2030. On the other hand, if GDP grows by 7% per year, aggregate electricity consumption will grow by 4% per year and be at 147 thousand GWh by 2030. If GDP grows by only 5% per year, aggregate electricity consumption will grow by only 2.8% per year and be at 120 thousand GWh by 2030. The model is useful not just for forecasting but also for analyzing, through simulations, the impact on electricity consumption of changes in income, price, and temperature. A copy of the study is attached to this Technical Advisory. EPDP is willing to provide the necessary training to the technical staff who might be assigned to use this forecasting model for aggregate electricity consumption. 1 ENERGY POLICY AND UPecon Foundation DEVELOPMENT PROGRAM (EPDP)
Working Paper 2016-05 August 2016
An Error Correction Model for Forecasting Philippine Aggregate Electricity Consumption
By
Rolando A. Danao and Geoffrey M. Ducanes
University of the Philippines (UP) and Energy Policy and Development Program (EPDP)
http://www.upecon.org.ph/epdp/working-paper-forecasting-05/
EPDP Working Papers are preliminary versions disseminated to elicit critical comments. They are protected by Republic Act No. 8293 and are not for quotation or reprinting without prior approval. This study is made possible by the generous support of the American People through the United States Agency for International Development (USAID) under the Energy Policy and Development Program (EPDP). EPDP is a four-year program implemented by the UPecon Foundation, Inc. The contents or opinions expressed in this paper are the authors’ sole responsibility and do not necessarily reflect the views of USAID or the United States Government or the UPecon Foundation, Inc. Any errors of commission or omission are the authors’ and should not be attributed to any of the above. ENERGY POLICY AND UPecon Foundation DEVELOPMENT PROGRAM (EPDP)
EPDP POLICY BRIEF 2016 - 04 Forecasting Aggregate Electricity Consumption in the Philippines
Rolando A. Danao and Geoffrey M. Ducanes
This note provides some guidance on the use of an econometric model for performing scenario-based analysis of the impacts on electricity consumption of projected changes in the factors that drive this consumption. The model is an error correction model (ECM) developed for forecasting aggregate Philippine electricity consumption based on gross domestic product, electricity price, and temperature. The ECM was chosen from among a variety of models because (a) it links the short-run dynamics and long-run equilibrium relationships, (b) it allows for a richer dynamic structure, (c) it provides immunity from spurious regression, and (d) it might even enhance forecasting accuracy. The focus is on determining electricity consumption under alternative futures.
We stipulate a baseline forecast where the drivers of electricity consumption (GDP, electricity price, and temperature) follow their historical trends. Several alternative scenarios examine how changes in these drivers will affect electricity consumption over the next 15 years as compared to the baseline forecast.
The simulations confirm that electricity consumption is mainly driven by economic growth. Increasing real GDP Photo from www.radyo.inquirer.net growth from 6% per year to 7% – while assuming that price and temperature follow their historical trends – could increase electricity consumption at the end of 15 years by 10% above the baseline case (refer to Figure 1).
The model indicates that, in the short run, electricity price has a significant negative effect on electricity consumption but the effect is not substantial because of the low price elasticity of demand in absolute terms. This means that electricity price is not a suitable instrument for influencing electricity consumption.F or example, if electricity price decreases by 1% per year – while assuming that real GDP and temperature follow their historical trends – electricity consumption at the end of 15 years increases by only 0.6% above the baseline case.
To see the effect of climate change, we assume that GDP grows at the rate of 6% per year (the base case), electricity price follows its historical trend, and EPDP POLICY BRIEF 2016 - 04 Figure 1 Figure 2 Electricity Consumption Forecasts Corresponding to Low, Baseline, and High GDP Growth Rates Result of Simulation with Combined Changes in All Explanatory Variables
temperature increases at the uniform annual increment of 0.05°C from 26.2°C in 2014 to 27.0°C in 2030. Although the temperature elasticity of demand is greater than 1, the increase in consumption is not large because the projected temperature increase by 2030 is only 0.8°C. Electricity consumption by 2030 will be about 1.4% higher than under the baseline scenario.
Lastly, we also look at the impact when all the explanatory The full study entitled “An Error Correction variables are changed simultaneously. Specifically, we Model for Forecasting Philippine Aggregate combine the assumptions of the previous simulations: Electricity Consumption” is available as EPDP (a) strong GDP growth of 7%, (b) a 1% per year decline in Working Paper 2016-05 at electricity price, and (c) a uniform increase in temperature www.upecon.org.ph/epdp/resource-center/ of 0.05°C per year up to 2030 (refer to Figure 2). Under library/ this scenario, electricity consumption by 2030 will be 12% higher than the baseline scenario. Thus, the effect of including price and temperature changes to changes in GDP is the increase in electricity consumption by about 2%. About the Authors It is, therefore, important for planners to know the likely directions that the driver variables will take in order to Rolando A. Danao is the Capacity Building Advisor of account for their combined effects. This will provide a more EPDP and a professor emeritus at the UP School of accurate forecast of electricity demand and, consequently, Economics. a more accurate determination of the generation capacity needed to meet the demand. Geoffrey M. Ducanes is a research fellow of EPDP and an assistant professor at the UP School of Economics.
This study is made possible by the generous support of the American People through the United States Agency for International Development (USAID) under the Energy Policy and Development Program (EPDP). EPDP is a four-year program implemented by the UPecon Foundation, Inc. The contents or opinions expressed in this paper are the authors’ sole responsibility and do not necessarily reflect the views of USAID or the United States Government or the UPecon Foundation, Inc. Any errors of commission or omission are the authors’ and should not be attributed to any of the above.
CONTACT US Suite B2-003 Centennial Building, Concordia Albarracin Hall, E.Jacinto St. corner C.P. Garcia Avenue, University of the Philippines, UPecon Foundation Diliman, 1101 Quezon City, Philippines Email: [email protected] Annex 4. Albert del Rosario Research Institute Roundtable Discussion Program
"Affordable Electricity: A Requisite for Competitiveness" Joy 3 Function Room of the Oakwood Premier Joy-Nostalg Center, in Ortigas Center Pasig City October 26, 2016 from 1:30 pm to 4:30 pm
1:00 – 1:30 pm Registration
1:30 – 1:35 pm Welcoming Remarks Atty. Kaye Clemente Lua Executive Director, ADR Institute
Introduction of Speakers
1:35 – 2:10 pm Dr. Majah-Leah Ravago Assistant Professor, UP School of Economics Energy Policy and Development Program
2:10 – 2:40 pm Rosemarie Edillon Undersecretary for Policy and Planning National Economic and Development Authority
Introduction of Discussants
2:40 – 3:00 pm George Chua President Federation of Philippine Industries
3:00 – 3:20 pm Atty. Jay Layug OIC Chairman National Renewable Energy Board (NREB) (to be confirmed)
3:20 – 4:20 pm Open Forum
Moderator: Francesco Javier A. Pangalangan Secretary General CitizenWatch
4:20 – 4:30 pm Synthesis and Closing Remarks r Annex 5. Senate Bill 1290 An Act Establishing the Philippine Energy Research and Policy Development Institute, Defining its Objectives, tRte Powers and Functions, Providing Funds Therefor, and for Other Purposff ersof !/Jr t·crtt;ir1
SEVENTEENTH CONGRESS OF THE ·16 REPUBLIC OF THE PHILIPPINES O£C 15 p 4 :52 FIRST REGULAR SESSION
RECEIVED SENATE
Senate Bill No. 1290
Introduced by SEN. WIN GATCHALIAN
AN ACT ESTABLISHING THE PHILIPPINE ENERGY RESEARCH AND POLICY DEVELOPMENT INSTITUTE, DEFINING ITS OBJECTIVES, POWERS AND FUNCTIONS, PROVIDING FUNDS THEREFOR, AND FOR OTHER PURPOSES
Explanatory Note
The energy ector i naturally characterized by rapidly changing technologies which most of the country's policy instruments cannot keep up with due to given limitations in local research and technical capacity. Thi deficiency can be seen in the sparse academic and policy programs in univer ities and research centers focusing on energy. A a result, the government has sought a i tance from private foreign funded institutions for the needed a sis ance for energy policy and regulation.
This bill seeks to bridge the re earch and policy gap in the energy sector by creating a Philippine Energy Re earch and Policy Development Institute. It recognizes the importance of rigorous multidi ciplinary research in making sound energy policies and legislation and thus charges the Institute to und rtake collaborative energy research and policy development among th academe and stakeholders; provide timely technical assi tance to the government on energy i ues needing policy direction and advise; create and administer programs intended to build the capacity of government agencies, energy stakeholders, and the academe; and ensure that the results of energy research and policy development activities are utilized to improve the energy sector, the economy, and the lives of the people.
Given all the foregoing, the immediate pass; his measure is sought. V'.s>^ 1 S e n a te ^ ■J'''(Ot!!tP ot tijf »pirrtarj»
'16 DEC 15 P4 52 SEVENTEENTH CONGRESS OF THE ]
REPUBLIC OF THE PHILIPPINES RECEIVED BY:
First Regular Session
SENATE
S.B. No. 1 2 9 0
Introduced by SEN. WIN GATCHALIAN
AN ACT ESTABLISHING THE PHILIPPINE ENERGY RESEARCH AND POLICY DEVELOPMENT INSTITUTE, DEFINING ITS OBJECTIVES, POWERS AND FUNCTIONS, PROVIDING FUNDS THEREFOR, AND FOR OTHER PURPOSES
Be it enacted by the Senate and the House of Representatives of the Philippines in Congress assembled:
1 SECTION 1. Title. - This Act shall be known as the “Philippine Energy 2 Research and Policy Development Institute Act of 2016”.
4 SECTION 2. Declaration of Policy. - It is hereby declared the policy of the 5 State to ensure energy security, equity, and sustainability. Towards this end, 6 it is also the policy of the State to enhance knowledge in recent developments 7 and scientific breakthroughs in the field of energy; identify key policy areas, 1 issues, and challenges in the country’s energy sector; and formulate 2 multidisciplinary research-based policies and strategies for the cost-effective 3 use of energy resources towards environmentally-sound energy development.
5 SECTION 3. Establishment of the Philippine Energy Research and Policy 6 Institute. - Pursuant to the national policy of enhancing the country’s 7 capability for energy research and policy development, there is hereby 8 established in the School of Economics of the University of the Philippines (UP) 9 Diliman, a Philippine Energy Research and Policy Development Institute, 10 hereinafter referred to as the Institute.
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12 SECTION 4. Objectives of the Institute. - The objectives of the Institute are:
13 a) To promote collaborative and multidisciplinary energy research and 14 policy development among the academe, and public and private 15 stakeholders; 16 b) To provide timely technical assistance to the government on energy 17 issues needing policy direction and advise; 18 c) To create and administer programs intended to build the capacity of 19 government agencies, public and private energy stakeholders, and the 20 academe including graduate, and post-graduate students; 21 d) To establish mechanisms for the dissemination and utilization of 22 research and policy development outputs; 23 e) To ensure that the results of energy research and policy development 24 activities are utilized to improve the energy sector, the economy, and the 25 lives of the people. 26
27 SECTION 5. Functions of the Institute. - The powers and functions of the 28 Institute shall include but shall not be limited to: 1 who shall serve for a term of three (3) years which can be renewed for another 2 three (3) years.
4 SECTION 8. Advisory Council of the Institute. - There shall be an Advisory 5 Council of the Institute to be composed of the following:
6 a) Chancellor of UP Diliman as the Chairperson; 7 b) Dean of the UP College of Engineering; 8 c) Dean of the UP College of Law; 9 d) Dean of the UP College of Science; 10 e) Dean of the UP School of Statistics; 11 f) Dean of the UP School of Economics; and 12 g) One (1) other member who is a recognized scholar in energy research and 13 policy development to be appointed by the Board of Regents upon 14 recommendation of the UP President.
15 The Executive Director shall concurrently serve as a Member-Secretary 16 of the Board. The Chancellor of UP Diliman, and the Deans of the College of 17 Engineering, College of Law, College of Science, School of Statistics, and School 18 of Economics shall serve in an ex-officio capacity. The one other member shall 19 serve for a term of two (2) years.
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21 SECTION 9. Functions of the Advisory Council. - The Advisory Council shall 22 have the following powers and functions:
23 1. To recommend the general directions and determine the priorities of the 24 Institute; 25 2. To recommend research and policy areas for study and investigation by 26 the Institute based on its evaluation of the energy policy landscape 27 including the needs and demands of the country and the people; 1 3. To recommend to the Board of Regents the establishment of the 2 component units of the Institute; 3 4. To generate resources and obtain logistical and financial support for the 4 programs and component units of the Institute; 5 5. To provide advice to the Institute on any matter relating to the 6 development of a research and/or policy area and the administration of 7 research and policy programs; and 8 6. To monitor and review all the activities and operations of the Institute as 9 implemented by the Executive Director.
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11 SECTION 10. Appointment of Faculty and Staff. - The human resource 12 complement of the Institute shall be organized and set-up by the Executive 13 Director in accordance with the existing rules and regulations of UP and upon 14 approval by the Board of Regents.
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16 SECTION 11. Public Access. - The public and other energy institutions shall 17 have access to the research findings, facilities, and other resources of the 18 Institute, as provided in the implementing rules and regulations of this Act.
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20 SECTION 12. Trust Fund. - A trust fund, which is designated as the Energy 21 Research Fund, is hereby established for the support of the Institute, including 22 the purchase of research equipment and facilities, compensation and honoraria 23 to researchers, whether in government service or otherwise, and such other 24 necessary expenses to cany out the purpose of this Act. The Energy Research 25 Fund shall consist of the amounts appropriated by the Government under this 26 Act, and such sums as may be derived from private endowments, donations, 27 and other sources. 2 SECTION 13. Implementing Rules and Regulations. - Within fifteen (15) 3 days from the effectivity of this Act, the UP Board of Regents, in coordination 4 with the Department of Energy, shall formulate the rules and regulations 5 necessary to implement the provisions of this Act.
7 SECTION 14. Separability Clause. - If, for any reason, any provision of this 8 Act is declared to be unconstitutional or invalid, the other provisions hereof 9 which are not affected thereby shall continue to be in full force or effect.
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11 SECTION 15. Repealing Clause. - All laws, decrees, orders, rules and 12 regulations or parts thereof which are inconsistent with or contraiy to the 13 provisions of this Act are hereby repealed, amended or modified accordingly.
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15 SECTION 16. Effectivity. - This Act shall take effect fifteen (15) days after its 16 publication in at least two (2) national newspapers of general circulation.
Approved. Annex 6. EPDP Newsletter vol. 2 no.2
EPDPThe official newsletter of the Energy Policy and Developmentnews Program (EPDP) Volume II • Issue 2 October 2016 PH top energy officials discuss ways to achieve competitive electricity market
The Energy Policy and Development Program (EPDP) gathered the country’s top energy officials for the Executive Course on Competition and Regulation in the Philippine Power Sector last 16 September 2016 at Oakwood Premier Joy Nostalg Center.
The course highlighted the roles the government must assume in the development of the energy sector. Representatives of the different energy agencies agreed that there is a need for an inter-agency committee, to be led by the Department of Energy, which will oversee and streamline the planning and investment process in the sector. In addition, the discussions also focused on how the government could optimize regulation, as well as the implementation of the competition policy in enabling the industry to National Scientist Dr. Raul V. Fabella become a well-functioning market.
Speakers for the course were Dr. Raul V. Fabella, National Scientist and Professor Emeritus at the UP School of Economics; Commissioner Gloria Victoria C. Yap-Taruc of the Energy Regulatory Commission; and Commissioner Johannes Benjamin R. Bernabe of the Philippine Competition Commission.
Joining the course were 40 officials from the Department of Energy (DOE); National Economic and Development Authority (NEDA); Energy Regulatory Commission (ERC); Philippine Competition Commission (PCC); Department of Trade and Industry (DTI); Philippine Statistics Authority (PSA); National ERC Commissioner Gloria Victoria C. Yap-Taruc Electrification Administration (NEA); National Power Corporation (NPC); and Philippine Electricity Market Corporation (PEMC). Guests from the Philippine Senate and House of Representatives were also in attendance.
Some of the participants were DOE Undersecretary Mylene Capongcol; ERC Commissioners Josefina Patricia Asirit and Geronimo Sta. Ana; PCC Chairman Arsenio Balisacan and Commissioner Stella Luz Quimbo; former DOE Secretary Raphael Perpetuo Lotilla; and former NEDA Socioeconomic Planning Secretary and Director-General Emmanuel Esguerra.
EPDP is funded by the United States Agency for International Development (USAID) and implemented by the UPecon Foundation. For more information, PCC Commissioner Johannes Benjamin R. Bernabe visit the EPDP website. EPDP Partners with IFPRI for Research on Energy-Water-Food Sectors in the PH
Back (L-R): Y. Kuwayama (Resources for the Future), R. Alonzo (EPDP), H. Xie (IFPRI), J. Roumasset EPDP and IFPRI meeting with USAID SDAA Gloria Steele (EPDP), M. Rosegrant (IFPRI), C. Ringler, B. Simmons (US State Department) Front (L-R): D. Mekonnen, R. Valmonte-Santos (IFPRI), S. de Guia, J. Magadia (EPDP), J. Somers, G. Steele (USAID), A. Balisacan (PCC), M. Ravago, G. Ducanes (EPDP), A. Pradesha, N. Perez, P. Al-Riffai, A. Mondal (IFPRI) research collaboration aims to develop an integrated modelling framework to assess trade-offs across the energy- Together with the International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI), EPDP water-food sectors in the Philippines. The initial objective conducted a joint workshop on “Energy, Water, Food, and Competition is to integrate this in the economy-wide model of NEDA. Policies” last 19-20 July at IFPRI’s headquarters in Washington D.C., U.S.A. The workshop brought together a group of research scholars During the Washington visit, the EPDP team also organized from the U.S. and the Philippines to identify possible research endeavors a meeting with USAID Senior Deputy Assistant Administrator relating to the interrelationship of the energy-water-food sectors. Ms. Gloria Steele. Together with EPDP Program Advisor Dr. James Roumasset, Philippine Competition Commission The workshop is intended to be the first step towards an expanded Chairperson Arsenio Balisacan, and IFPRI Division Director research collaboration where government agencies—including Dr. Mark Rosegrant, EPDP Program Director Dr. Majah- the NEDA, DOE, and the Philippine Competition Commission Leah Ravago shared EPDP’s accomplishments and (PCC)—are envisioned to take part as primary partners. The plans as well as discussed the collaboration with IFPRI. EPDP Concludes Training on Research Tools for PH Energy Practitioners
Last 11-13 July 2016, the final leg of EPDP’s training courses John Carlo P. Daquis of the UP School of Statistics. on the use of research and analytical tools was conducted at Microtel, UP TechnoHub. The training course was attended Prior to this, EPDP conducted the course Introduction to Statistical by 33 representatives from the Department of Energy (DOE), Principles and Survey Data Analysis on 25-27 November 2015, Department of Trade and Industry (DTI), National Economic and which covered statistical concepts, the structure of economic Development Authority (NEDA), Philippine Statistics Authority data, sampling process and design, and concepts in summary (PSA), National Electrification Administration (NEA), Energy statistics. Meanwhile, the Training Course on Econometrics on 11- Regulatory Commission (ERC), National Power Corporation 13 April 2016 covered modern econometrics and their application (NPC), and Philippine Electricity Market Corporation (PEMC). to energy issues and development.
This training course focused on the fundamentals of forecasting The training courses are in support of EPDP’s objective to methods, processes, and E-Views, an econometric software for strengthen the capacity of the Philippine government to formulate forecasting. coherent and evidence-based policies and strategies towards sustainable and efficient energy use. The resource persons and panel evaluators for the course were Dr. Rolando A. Danao and Dr. Geoffrey M. Ducanes of the UP Presentations from the abovementioned courses can be found in School of Economics; and Dr. Dennis S. Mapa and Messrs. the EPDP website. Manuel Leonard F. Albis, Michael Dominic C. del Mundo, and EPDP Lecture Series Continues to Inform on PH Energy Issues
Dr. Ricardo G. Barcelona, Barcino Capitas Limited Mr. Rodel S. Limbaga, DOE Engr. Redi Allan B. Remoroza, NGCP
Dr. Ramon L. Clarete, UP and EPDP Mr. Jan Carlo Punongbayan, UP and EPDP Dr. Arlan Brucal, University of Hawaii and EPDP As part of the constant effort to enhance the knowledge of Development Plan (TDP) and the Distribution Development the academe, the government, and the general public about Plan (DDP) were conceptualized. energy-related issues, EPDP continues to bring in energy scholars and practitioners to share their expertise through On 8 September, EPDP Fellow Dr. Ramon L. Clarete the Lecture Series. presented the findings of his research study titled “The Value Added Tax and Red Tape: What Contributes More to Since its launch in March 2016, EPDP has been engaging Electricity Tariffs in the Philippines.” In his lecture, Dr. Clarete an increasing number of faculty members, students, presented two possible scenarios that may help alleviate the representatives from the government, individuals from the nationwide dilemma of high electricity rates. While lifting VAT private sector, and other stakeholders in energy-related can greatly lower the price of electricity, it would also cause discourse. a considerable decline in the GDP. Therefore, eliminating red tape in the industry will be more effective in addressing the Last 2 June 2016, Dr. Ricardo Barcelona led an engaging issue. dialogue during his lecture titled “Energy Investment Uncertainties: Why Managerial Flexibility Means Profits and EPDP Research Fellow Dr. Arlan Brucal and EPDP Supply Security.” Utilizing his background as an investment Researcher Mr. Jan Carlo Punongbayan led the lecture series banker and equity analyst, Barcelona confronted the existing session last 21 September at the University of the Philippines ideas on investment by discussing the benefit of flexibility in Diliman. The lecture “The Role of Power Prices in Structural the power market, where uncertainty is prevalent. Transformation: Evidence from the Philippines,” covered the causes of deindustrialization and the impacts of premature Engr. Redi Allan B. Remoroza, OIC Department Head of deindustrialization on the Philippine economy. In view of the the Transmission Planning Department of the National Grid government’s plan to revive the manufacturing industry, the Corporation of the Philippines (NGCP), and Mr. Rodel S. presenters underscored the influence of power prices on the Limbaga, Senior Science Research Specialist of the Electric growth and composition of manufacturing in the Philippines. Power Industry Management Bureau of the Department of Energy (DOE), presided over the last of a two-part lecture on More information and presentations from the lecture can be Philippine Energy Planning last 25 August. They discussed found in the EPDP website. Please refer to the schedule on the planning processes by which the Transmission the back page for future lectures.
Editorial Staff Dr. Majah-Leah Ravago EPDP Program Director
Contributors: Layout: Jean Marie Isabelle Lau Wang Nedheline Barquin Nedheline Barquin Layout and Editorial Coordinator: EPDP NEWS is published by the Energy J. Kathleen Magadia Policy and Development Program (EPDP). Jean Marie Isabelle Lau Wang Roppe Jenice Jubilado The information in this newsletter are Charmaine Yalong Suite B2-003 Centennial Bldg., Concordia provided by EPDP’s research, capacity Albarracin Hall, E. Jacinto St. corner C.P. Garcia building, policy, and communications Ave., University of the Philippines, Diliman components. Quezon City, Philippines 1101 http://www.upecon.org.ph/epdp/ EPDP Visits MakBan Geothermal Power Plant
In support of EPDP’s objective to help produce a pool of energy policy specialists that the Government of the Philippines may tap in the future, the program arranges educational tours that could hopefully provide a more holistic appreciation of the country’s electric power industry. EPDP has arranged two educational visits in the past year—the first on 15 February 2016 at the Masinloc Coal-Fired Thermal Power Plant in Zambales and the second on 19 September 2016 at the Makiling Banahaw (MakBan) Geothermal Power Plant in Bay, Laguna.
On 19 September, representatives from the UP School of Economics, National Economic and Development Authority, and United States Agency for International Development (USAID) joined the tour to MakBan to learn more about power plant operations and maintenance. Select EPDP fellows, staff, and researchers also participated in the educational visit.
The Corporate Social Responsibility Team of AP Renewables, Inc. welcomed the group to the power plant. Engr. Iñigo Cooling tower, MakBan Power Plant Escopete, Reliability Supervisor, apprised the group of the displays, and interactive exhibits. The educational visit plant’s different areas and their respective functions; elements concluded with a tour of the plant and the control room, of the geothermal energy system; and processes involved where an in-depth discussion with plant supervisor Manny in operating a geothermal plant. The group also visited the Pagayunan on the power plant’s history and the country’s Cleanergy Center, which houses various audiovisual shows, power sector ensued.
With the recent changes in the Philippine government administration, the Management The EPDP team met the newly-appointed Department of Energy (DOE) Secretary Committee of the Energy Policy and Development Program (EPDP) had the opportunity Alfonso Cusi on 12 August 2016. The team shared with the Secretary and his to introduce the program to the newly-appointed National Economic and Development staff the objectives of EPDP and highlighted the research studies and activities it Authority (NEDA) Socio-Economic Planning Secretary, Dr. Ernesto M. Pernia, and his staff has done to date. Secretary Cusi enthusiastically asked about EPDP’s research on 8 August 2016. During the meeting, the Secretary was apprised of the ongoing and findings on various pressing energy issues, such as electricity rates, subsidies, load upcoming projects of EPDP, for which the Secretary underscored his continuous support. capacity, and fuel mix, among others. Secretary Cusi expressed DOE’s full support.
EPDP Program Director Dr. Majah- Leah Ravago was given the Outstanding Young Scientist (OYS) EPDP Lecture Series award in the field of economics by the National Academy of Science and Technology, Philippines (NAST) last 14 July 2016 at the 38th Annual Scientific Meeting at the Manila 27 October 2016 Hotel. The OYS award is presented Energy Efficiency to young Filipino scientists who have made significant contributions to science and technology. Dr. 10 November 2016 Ravago was recognized by NAST— the Philippine government’s highest Power Demand recognition and advisory body on science and technology— for her scholarly contributions to energy and 24 November 2016 resource economics, particularly through her research that provides Power Supply evidence-based analyses towards a more secure growth-enhancing energy future for the country.
This newsletter (UP Energy Policy and Development Program) is made possible by the generous support of the American People through the United States Agency for International Development (USAID). EPDP is a four-year Program implemented by the UPecon Foundation, Inc. The contents of this newsletter are the sole responsibility of the EPDP Team and do not necessarily reflect the views UPecon Foundation of USAID, the United States Government, or the UPecon Foundation, Inc. Annex 7. The Manila Times news article “New energy policy anchors on nation’s needs”
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New energy policy anchors on nation’s 0 needs BY ABERON VOLTAIRE PALAÑA, TMT ON OCTOBER 10, 2016 SPECIAL FEATURES Like 11 Share Tweet
FOUR months after taking charge of the nation, the administration of President Rodrigo Duterte is still seeking to strike a balance in defining an energy policy that will meet specific requirements of the country and comply with carbon emission regulations.
In October 2015, the Philippines submitted to the Social Connect United Nations its Intended Nationally Determined Manila Times Contribution (INDC). It stated the country’s role in the global efforts to fight and adapt to climate change and its commitment to reduce its carbon emissions by 70 percent by the year 2030. Nuclear Power Plant The roadmap also took into consideration the tour in Morong, Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) and the 1.5 Bataan. PHOTOS BY degrees Celsius goal for the global temperature of the RENE H. DILAN The Manila Times 2015 Paris Agreement. Take note that reduction of @TheManilaTimes carbon emissions is to come not only from the energy Today’s Front Page December 20, sector; other sectors like transportation, waste disposal, 11 h forestry, and industry also have a role to play.
Meanwhile, President Duterte said on July 18 that his administration would not honor the December 2015 Paris agreement on climate change, although the Philippines had adaptedit along with 200 other countries.
The Paris agreement on climate change, the president thinks is “blocking the progress of developing countries like the Philippines.” According to him, the industrialized nations are “dictating the destiny” of the developing countries by requiring them to cut carbon emissions.
Alfonso Cusi, the secretary of the Department of Energy (DOE), told The Manila Times that the department’s new strategy is to review first the energy sector’s contribution as indicated in the intended nationally determined contributions (INDC).
“This will be done in order to rightfully determine the energy sector’s possible contribution while taking into account the Philippines’ baseload capacity profile. http://www.manilatimes.net/new-energy-policy-anchors-nations-needs/290527/ 1/3 12/20/2016 New energy policy anchors on nation’s needs - The Manila Times Online
Revisiting the energy sector’s The Manila Times contributions whilst assessing the 364,990 likes baseload capacity is essential in order to render supply security and stability, and recognize that this will not be affected Like Page Share whatever the sector’s final commitment 24 friends like this will be,” Cusi said.
At present, the DOE in partnership with USAID is conducting a study on the appropriate energy mix under the Energy Policy and Development Program (EPDP) of the University of the Philippines School of Economics and Building Low Emission Alternatives to Develop Economic Resiliency and Sustainability (BLEADERS). SUPPLEMENT PDF
“Likewise, the Climate Change Commission (CCC) in coordination with other concerned agencies agreed to start anew estimations for the appropriate greenhouse gas reduction goals, which will consider the country’s development goal and economic growth,” Cusi said.
Before the Duterte administration came into office, CCC had started its task of comprehensively reviewing the government’s energy policy that is expected to reshape the country’s power development plans and replace coal with renewable sources of energy.
A comprehensive review of the government’s energy policy involves a whole-of- nation approach to achieve low-carbon development pathway and national goals and targets for climate change mitigation and adaptation, disaster risk reduction and sustainable development.
The previous administration of President Benigno Aquino 3rd had defined a scheme to reduce the country’s dependence on coal. It targeted a fuel mix of 30 percent coal, 30 percent renewable energy, 30 percent natural gas, and 10 percent oil-based power plants.
The previous initiatives for the development of INDC such as Cost Benefit Analysis study among others, however, will still be useful in the formulation of new targets. It will only be enhanced by updating the data and assumptions to carry over the energy sector’s main thrust and mandate – to ensure energy security towards the economic development,” Cusi said.
The DOE, meanwhile, ordered the technical audit of the power generating plants to ensure that they comply with carbon emission regulations. Energy Department also signed Memorandum of Agreements (MOAs) with the Institute of Integrated Electrical Engineers of the Philippines (IIEE) and the Philippine Society of Mechanical Engineers (PSME). These professional associations, known for their technical knowledge, expertise, and competence in the power sector will assist the DOE in addressing the current energy situation.
Secretary Cusi said that the new energy mix policy wouldbe released by the first quarter of 2017 if not by the end of this year.
“The country’s energy mix presents the energy resources that are sourced domestically and internationally. The study concerning the updating of energy mix policy is expected to be completedby the end of 2016 or first quarter of 207,” Cusi said.“Apart from an energy mix, it is also relevant to have the right technology mix for power generation in order to ensure greater stability and reliability in the grid. Having the appropriate technology mix ensures that the country has sufficient and stable baseload capacity or simply having various/diverse types of baseload power plants providing ample supply 24/7,”
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http://www.manilatimes.net/new-energy-policy-anchors-nations-needs/290527/ 3/3 Annex 8. Draft Highlights of the 16 November 2016 Program Steering Committee Meeting
ENERGY POLICY AND DEVELOPMENT PROGRAM PROGRAM STEERING COMMITTEE (PSC)
Meeting Highlights 16 November 2016, 9:15 –11:20am, Wednesday NEDA Board Room, NEDA sa Pasig Building, Pasig City
ATTENDANCE Program Steering Committee USAID Secretary Alfonso Cusi, DOE Ms. Lily Gutierrez, Alternate EPDP AOR Undersecretary Adoracion Navarro, NEDA Dr. Jennifer Leisch, Climate Change Mitigation (for Socioeconomic and Planning Specialist Secretary Ernesto Pernia) Mr. Jeremy Gustafson, Director, USAID EPDP Management Committee (for USAID Mission Director Susan Brems) Dr. Majah-Leah Ravago, Program Director Dr. Aleli Kraft, Board Secretary, UPecon Foundation Dr. Rolando Danao, Capacity Building Advisor (for UPecon Foundation Chairperson Dr. Orville Solon) Prof. Ruperto Alonzo, Policy Advisor
NEDA Ms. Joji Abot-Camelon, Deputy Program Director Ms. Anna Arsa, Senior Economic Development Ms. Maribel Testa, Finance and Administrative Specialist Unit Head Mr. Bernie Magtalas, Economic Development Specialist EPDP Team DOE Ms. Alca Laborte Director Jesus Tamang, DOE Ms. Jennylene Layaoen Director Irma Exconde, DOE Ms. Jean Lau Wang Ms. Marietta Quejada, DOE Ms. J. Kat Magadia Ms. Grey-An Pascual AGENDA 1. Approval of the agenda 2. Reading of the minutes of the previous meeting 3. Business arising/updates to previous meeting agreements (a) NEDA and DOE to include EPDP in transition reports (b) EPDP to identify priority studies with the highest impact to leverage for additional funding (c) EPDP to explore other interested donor agencies for possible funding support in light of FY3 (Oct 2016 – Sept 2017) budget cut 4. Updates from Philippine Government partners (a) NEDA and DOE focal persons (b) Presentation of reform priorities in the energy sector (c/o NEDA and DOE) 5. EPDP achievements and FY3 work plan (a) Key achievements (b) FY3 work plan 6. Financial updates (a) Status (b) Budget for FY3 7. Schedule of next PSC meeting ACTION ITEMS (i) EPDP to provide DOE copies of the first round of studies and set a schedule to discuss them with DOE
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(ii) EPDP to match its priority research studies and activities to government key priorities and the technical assistance requested by key government partners (iii) NEDA to internally discuss the possibility of assisting EPDP in obtaining additional funding support (iv) PSC members to confirm in writing the work plan and suggested topics for the policy forum and executive course (v) EPDP to explore an earlier date for the next PSC meeting HIGHLIGHTS 1. Approval of the agenda The PSC approved the agenda. 2. Reading of the minutes of the previous meeting The minutes will be deemed approved by the current set of PSC members if no comments are forwarded to EPDP by 23 November 2016. The Committee also noted that the document was transmitted to the previous PSC members in June 2016. EPDP did not receive comments. 3. Business arising/updates on previous meeting agreements (a) NEDA and DOE both confirmed the inclusion of EPDP in their respective transition reports.
(b) Given the significant budget reduction in FY3, EPDP re-prioritized its studies for its second round of research. DOE requested copies of the first round of studies and to discuss these at the appropriate time.
(c) The European Union (EU) and the Australian Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade (DFAT) manifested interest in partnering with EPDP. Dr. Rebecca Carter, former EPDP USAID Agreement Officer’s Representative, linked EPDP to both EU and DFAT. EPDP is preparing a proposal for submission to DFAT through NEDA. ACTION ITEM: EPDP to provide DOE with copies of the first round of studies and set a schedule to discuss them with DOE. 4. Updates from Philippine Government partners (a) Secretary Ernesto Pernia designated Undersecretary Rolando Tungpalan and Undersecretary Adoracion Navarro as his PSC alternates. Secretary Alfonso Cusi designated Undersecretary Jesus Posadas as his PSC alternate. Director Jesus Tamang is the alternate of Undersecretary Posadas.
(b) DOE and NEDA gave their presentations on reform priorities in the energy sector. The top three reform areas of DOE are (i) declaration of energy projects as projects of national significance; (ii) land use classification for energy; and (iii) nuclear energy.
Based on the ongoing discussion on the Philippine Development Plan (PDP) 2017-2022, NEDA presented the tentative strategic focus (including government investment in transmission highways) and the strategies in the energy sector. Attachments A and B are the DOE and NEDA presentations. Discussion: DOE confirmed that an Executive Order is being drafted to carry out the declaration of energy projects as projects of national significance. Secretary Cusi manifested interest in EPDP’s assistance in determining the selection criteria in identifying projects to be considered as of national significance. For the land use classification for energy, DOE will be supporting the Department of Agriculture’s initiatives to make sure that energy is not competing with food production. DOE will pursue a policy where a government master plan drives the location of energy facility investments instead of letting investors decide where to locate their investments. DOE recognized the need to further discuss how to achieve climate change adaptation and mitigation in the energy sector, taking off from the Philippine perspective. DOE will pursue the natural gas bill, which promotes natural gas infrastructure development. DOE is looking at natural gas to improve electricity services in the island provinces. The logistics remains a problem.
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As a comment on the strategies presented by NEDA, Secretary Cusi indicated his desire for these strategies to address urgent needs, especially for those who still do not have access to electricity. He also noted that these strategies give emphasis on renewable energy (RE) without specifying the type of RE. He raised the concern on how RE, which is expensive, could bring down the cost of electricity. NEDA assured the Secretary of further consultation with DOE on the process of developing the PDP. In relation to government investment in transmission highways, EPDP mentioned differing opinions on this issue. Some are of the opinion that, based on the Electric Power Industry Reform Act, the government can actually invest in the transmission facility but operations will be turned over to the National Grid Corporation of the Philippines (NGCP), the private concessionaire in charge of operating, maintaining and developing the country’s state-owned power grid. DOE invited NEDA to join their ongoing discussions with NGCP in improving electricity services in island provinces. Secretary Cusi mentioned an unsolicited proposal to connect Semirara Island to Mindoro with coal as the main supply. This could bring down the cost of electricity in Mindoro and increase the quality and quantity of its electric supply. From Mindoro, Marinduque and Romblon can be connected to the main grid. The Secretary requested EPDP’s technical assistance for its priority projects. In light of government priorities, UPecon Foundation suggested identifying the priorities that are immediate and those that are long-term in nature. EPDP should provide inputs to both. The Committee then agreed that EPDP should match their topics and activities to the government’s key priorities. ACTION ITEM: EPDP to match its priority research studies and activities to government key priorities and the technical assistance requested by key government partners 5. EPDP achievements and FY3 work plan For the benefit of the new PSC members, Dr. Ravago briefly introduced EPDP and presented its achievements and work plan for FY3. She emphasized that the program’s research studies are meant to provide evidence for policy making. In addition to the research studies, which could take a year to complete, EPDP provides policy inputs or advisories in response to NEDA and DOE’s urgent requests. In relation to this, she mentioned the newly submitted TAN on forecasting electricity consumption that could inform the development of the Philippine Energy Plan and the PDP. EPDP could offer a training course to NEDA and DOE in forecasting. EPDP’s FY3 Work Plan includes the second round of research studies. These studies are generally aligned with the government’s priority areas, as discussed in the DOE and NEDA presentations, and take into account EPDP’s comparative advantage, limited resources and mandate to help reduce electricity prices. The Work Plan also includes the policy forum and executive course. EPDP requested the PSC members to suggest topics for both activities. 6. Financial EPDP reported its total actual expenses of Php23.7 million (US$528,000) in fiscal year (FY) 1 (October 2014 – September 2015) and Php42.9 million (US$913,000) in fiscal year 2 (October 2015 – September 2016). FY2 expenses accounted for the scaled down activities during its second half to realize more savings that can be used to cushion the steep budget cut in FY3. With more savings realized in FY2, EPDP projects a total expense of Php35.6 million (US$791,000) in FY3. This assumes an obligation of US$385,000 from USAID for FY3. Discussion:
EPDP has limited flexibility to accommodate new activities or studies given the substantial budget cut in FY3. It was agreed that EPDP will accommodate priorities and requests for research work within the scope of the second round of research studies.
DOE informed the body that a study on interconnection will already be implemented. The only issue is shortening the timeline to completion. DOE also manifested interest in looking into the role of electric cooperatives in the current energy sector.
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USAID inquired about the prospect of NEDA and DOE providing funding support to EPDP given the former’s research requirements. NEDA will discuss this internally. On the other hand, DOE informed USAID that they are relying on official development assistance (ODA), given that its budget has already been fully programmed. The Committee confirmed the broad elements of EPDP’s work plan. It was agreed that the PSC members will subsequently confirm the work plan as well as suggested topics for the policy forum and executive course. ACTION ITEMS: (i) NEDA to internally discuss the possibility of assisting EPDP in obtaining additional funding support (ii) PSC members to confirm in writing the work plan and suggested topics for the policy forum and executive course 7. Schedule of next PSC meeting The Committee agreed to set the next PSC meeting not later than 31 July 2017. ACTION ITEM: EPDP to explore an earlier date for the next PSC meeting
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