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Impacts of Current and Future Demographic Change on Transportation Planning in Texas

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Impacts of Current and Future Demographic Change on Transportation Planning in Texas Impacts of Current and Future Demographic Change on Transportation Planning in Texas by Steve Murdock, Michael Cline, Jolanda Prozzi, Rick Ramirez, Alan Meers, John McCray, and Robert Harrison Research Report 0-5392-3 IMPACTS OF CURRENT AND FUTURE DEMOGRAPHIC CHANGE ON TRANSPORTATION PLANNING IN TEXAS Second Year Interim Technical Report 0-5392-3 Conducted for the Texas Department of Transportation In cooperation with the U.S. Department of Transportation Federal Highway Administration By the INSTITUTE FOR DEMOGRAPHIC AND SOCIOECONOMIC RESEARCH THE UNIVERSITY OF TEXAS AT SAN ANTONIO AND THE CENTER FOR TRANSPORTATION RESEARCH THE UNIVERSITY OF TEXAS AT AUSTIN May 2008 Form DOT F 1700.7 (8-72) 1. Report No. 2. Government 3. Recipient's Catalog No. FHWA/TX-06/ Accession No. 0-5392-3 4. Title and Subtitle 5. Report Date 05/2008 Impacts of Current and Future Demographic Change 6. Performing Organization Code: on Transportation Planning in Texas: Second Year Interim Report 7. Author(s): Murdock, Steve H., Michael Cline, 8. Performing Organization Report No. Jolanda Prozzi, John McCray, and Robert Harrison 0-5392-3 9. Performing Organization Name and Address 10. Work Unit No. The Institute for Demographic & 11. Contract or Grant No. Socioeconomic Research The University of Texas at San Antonio, 1 UTSA Circle 0-5392 San Antonio, TX 78249-0704 12. Sponsoring Agency Name and Address 13. Type of Report and Period Covered Texas Department of Transportation Technical Report – 09/2005-08/2007 Research and Technology Implementation Office 14. Sponsoring Agency Code PO Box 5080 Austin, TX 78763-5080 15. Supplementary Notes Project performed in cooperation with the Texas Department of Transportation and the Federal Highway Administration. This report is part of an expanded study: Impacts of Current and Future Demographic Change on Transportation Planning in Texas 16. Abstract: As Texas population continues to grow and as the complexities of that growth change the fundamental demographic structure of the state, transportation planners will need a better understanding of demographic data and its implications. This report provides an overview of demographic change shaping the State of Texas and analyses of how these impacts may shape transportation. 17. Key Words 18. Distribution Statement No restrictions. This document is available to the public through the National Technical demographic data, statistics, transportation Information Service, Springfield, Virginia 22161, planning, population www.ntis.gov 19. Security Classif. (of this report) 20. 21. No. of Pages 22. Price unclassified Security 165 Classif. (of this page) unclassified Project No. 0-5392 ii Impacts of Current and Future Demographic Change on Transportation Planning in Texas by Steve Murdock, Michael Cline, Jolanda Prozzi, Rick Ramirez, Alan Meers, John McCray, and Robert Harrison Research Report 0-5392-3 IMPACTS OF FUTURE DEMOGRAPHIC CHANGE ON TRANSPORTATION PLANNING IN TEXAS Second Year Interim Technical Report 0-5392-3 Conducted for the Texas Department of Transportation In cooperation with the U.S. Department of Transportation Federal Highway Administration By the INSTITUTE FOR DEMOGRAPHIC AND SOCIOECONOMIC RESEARCH THE UNIVERSITY OF TEXAS AT SAN ANTONIO AND THE CENTER FOR TRANSPORTATION RESEARCH THE UNIVERSITY OF TEXAS AT AUSTIN May 2008 Project No. 0-5392 iii Institute for Demographic and Socioeconomic Research The University of Texas at San Antonio One UTSA Circle San Antonio, TX 78249-0704 http://idser.utsa.edu Copyright (c) 2007 Institute for Demographic and Socioeconomic Research The University of Texas at San Antonio All rights reserved Printed in the United States of America Project No. 0-5392 iv Disclaimers Authors’ Disclaimer: The contents of this report reflect the view of the authors, who are responsible for the facts and the accuracy of the data presented herein. The contents do not necessarily reflect the official view or policies of the Federal Highway Administration (FHWA) or the Texas Department of Transportation (TxDOT). This report does not constitute a standard, specification, or regulation. Patent Disclaimer: There was no invention or discovery conceived or first actually reduced to practice in the course of or under this contract, including any art, method, process, machine manufacture, design or composition of matter, or any new useful improvement thereof, or any variety of plant, which is or may be patentable under the patent laws of the United States of America or any foreign country. Notice: The United States Government and the State of Texas do not endorse products or manufacturers. Trade or manufacturers’ names appear herein solely because they are considered essential to the object of this report. Project No. 0-5392 v Acknowledgments The authors recognize the assistance of the following individuals who served on the project monitoring committee for FY 2007, including: The Texas Department of Transportation Project Coordinator: Charles H. Berry, Jr. P.E., District Engineer, El Paso District Project Director: Gregory O. Lancaster, Transportation Programming and Planning Division Project Advisors: Gilbert Sanchez (San Antonio District) and Sarah Stroman (Environmental Affairs Division) The research team includes: Institute for Demographic and Socioeconomic Research, The University of Texas at San Antonio Dr. Steve Murdock, Research Supervisor Mr. Michael Cline Mr. Rick Ramirez Mr. Alan Meers Dr. John McCray (UTSA College of Business) Center for Transportation Research, The University of Texas at Austin, Mr. Rob Harrison Ms. Jolanda Prozzi Project No. 0-5392 vi Executive Summary On a daily basis, drivers come face to face with some of the demographic changes occurring in Texas. In urban areas, drivers experience roadway congestion as a result of rapid population growth and suburban expansion. In other areas of the state, declining populations can be seen through fewer passing drivers. At the same time, the people we pass along the road are more racially and ethnically diverse, and many are older than what we may have seen 40 years ago. What do these changes mean for transportation in Texas and for the Texas Department of Transportation (TxDOT)? The goal of this report was to examine some of the implications of population and demographic changes. In general, these implications were examined by applying historic rates of transportation related factors onto two sets of population projections – one that assumes that the rapid population growth experienced by Texas during the 1990s continues through 2040 (Scenario 1.0), and another which assumes that a more moderate pace of growth experienced during the post-2000 period continues through 2040 (Scenario 2000-2004). In sum, in regards to demographic change, the State of Texas and the Texas Department of Transportation is faced with several major challenges that have different implications for transportation policy. These findings, conclusions, and implications are summarized here and expanded in the following chapters. A more detailed summary of findings, conclusions, and implications can be found in Chapter 8. Among the major findings in this report are the following: Relative to General Patterns of Population Growth and Distribution • The State of Texas will continue to experience rapid population growth, increasing in size from 20.9 million people in 2000 to between 43.6 million and 51.7 million. This is an increase of between 109 and 148 percent between 2000 and 2040. • Despite continued population growth overall, some areas will grow more rapidly than others while some may even experience population decline. As a result, over 70 percent of the population will live within the 5 largest TxDOT districts of Houston, Dallas, San Antonio, Austin, and Fort Worth by 2040 (up from 64 percent in 2006). During the same period, from 2 to 6 districts will experience population declines under the two population projection scenarios examined in this report. • By 2040, the population will become even more metropolitan oriented than it is today with an estimated 91 percent of the population living in metropolitan areas by 2040. • If recent trends of suburban population growth continue, the proportion of the population living in suburban counties will increase to 36 percent in 2040 from 18 percent in 2000. • The magnitude of the changes projected will substantially increase transportation demand especially in suburban areas of the State where growth is already challenging the transportation infrastructure. In rural areas, more stagnant patterns of growth, and in some cases decline, are likely to lead to challenges in maintaining roadway systems with reduced populations, and related resources. Relative to Changing Population and Household Characteristics • The population 65 years of age and older will increase markedly compared to the population as a whole from 9.9 percent of the total population in 2000 to about 16 percent of the population by 2040. Whereas the total population will increase from between 109 to 148 percent, the population 65 years of old will increase from between 220 and 273 percent from 2005 to 2040. Thus, the total population 65 and older will grow from 2.2 million in 2005 to between 7.1 and 8.2 million in 2040. Project No. 0-5392 vii • During the same time, Texas population will become more racially and ethnically diverse than it is today. By 2040, the Texas population is projected to be between 24 and 25 percent Anglo, about 8 percent African-American, 58-59 percent Hispanic, and about 9 percent
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