Migration Radar Asylum Summary September - December 2020
Migration Radar Summary T3 JanuaryDevelopments - Apriland expectations 2020 of asylum-related migration
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Migration Radar Asylum Summary September - December 2020
Publisher's Information Title Migration Radar Summary. Development and expectation of asylum- related migration September - December 2020.
Contents The Migration Radar Summary is an analysis product, centring on the monitoring of asylum-related migration to the Netherlands. For the purpose of comparison, the data from the relevant triannual period have been supplemented by data from previous months and from the same period a year ago. In addition, information is given on developments in countries of origin in the relevant triannual period and policy developments in the Netherlands and Europe. The Migration Radar provides the organisations cooperating in migration with an analysis to support policy and implementation.
Reporting period The Migration Radar Summary is based on data from various databases (IND METis, IOM, UNHCR), media reports, public Frontex data and public country information from IND/TOELT. The Migration Radar Summary is published once per triannual period.
Cooperation The Migration Radar is an analysis product of the Immigration and Naturalisation Service (IND) (Strategy and Implementation Advice (SUA)/Research & Analysis (O&A) and the IND service centre DV/Country and Language Research and Expertise Team TOELT), and has been written through cooperation with the Royal Netherlands Marechaussee (KMar), Ministry of Justice and Security (J&V/Directorate General for Migration (DGM)), Repatriation and Departure (DT&V), Central Agency for the Reception of Asylum Seekers (COA), Police and Ministry of Foreign Affairs (BZ).
IND Strategy and Implementation Advice (SUA) Implementation & Analysis (O&A) Ministry of van Justice and Security (J&V) Immigration and Naturalisation Service (IND) Rijnstraat 8 | 2515 XP | Den Haag Postbus 16275 | 2500 BG | Den Haag
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Migration Radar Asylum Summary September - December 2020
Contents
1 ASYLUM APPLICATIONS ...... 4
1.1 FIRST ASYLUM APPLICATIONS IN THE NETHERLANDS ...... 4 1.1.1 Asylum applications by persons coming from “safe countries of origin” ...... 6 1.1.2 Asylum applications by persons from visa-free countries ...... 6 1.1.3 Asylum applications by unaccompanied minors (UAMs) ...... 7 1.2 ANNUAL REVIEW 2020 ...... 9 2 SELECTED COUNTRIES OF ORIGIN ...... 10
2.1 AFGHANISTAN ...... 10 2.2 ERITREA ...... 10 2.3 MOROCCO ...... 10 2.4 NIGERIA ...... 10 2.5 RUSSIA ...... 11 3 OVERVIEW OF ROUTES AND DEVELOPMENTS ...... 11
3.1 ROUTES TO THE EU ...... 11 3.2 IMPORTANT SOCIO-POLITICAL DEVELOPMENTS IN THE REGIONS ...... 11 3.2.1 Middle East ...... 12 3.2.2 Africa ...... 17 3.2.3 Asia – Afghanistan ...... 20 3.2.4 Europe – Russia ...... 21 4 POLICY AND OTHER DEVELOPMENTS ...... 23
4.1 EUROPEAN AND INTERNATIONAL POLICY AND OTHER DEVELOPMENTS ...... 23 4.2 POLICY AND OTHER DEVELOPMENTS IN THE NETHERLANDS ...... 24
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Migration Radar Asylum Summary September - December 2020
1 Asylum applications 1.1 First asylum applications in the Netherlands In the third triannual period of 2020, 5,336 first asylum applications were submitted in the Netherlands. This is a decrease in comparison with the same period last year (-2,795, -34%), but an increase in comparison with the second triannual period (+1,736, +48%). Figure 1.1 shows the influx. It can be seen that the influx had increased again since June and stabilised in the autumn at round 1,300 per month. The fluctuations during the year had to do with the changing Corona measures.
Figure 1.1 Course of the number of first asylum applications in the Nederland’s 2.500
2.000
1.500
1.000
500
0
jul-20
jan-20
jun-20
okt-19 okt-20
feb-20
apr-20
sep-19 sep-20
dec-19 dec-20
aug-20
mrt-20
nov-19 nov-20 mei-20 Source: METiS Factboards, consulted on 5 January 20211.
Most asylum applications were submitted by Syrians (1,737). This is comparable to the same period in the preceding year (+0.4%), but an increase compared to the preceding triannual period (+55%). In second place are the Algerians (475). This group also shows a stable picture compared to the previous year (-2%) and an increase compared to the preceding triannual period (122%). The Turks are in third place (373), for whom the figures are comparable to those of the preceding year (-4%) and the preceding triannual period (+4%).
The number of applications by Moroccans in the third triannual period (335) is at the same level as the same period last year (+3%), but has increased in comparison to the preceding triannual period (+68%). The number of applications by Nigerians in the third triannual period (215) shows a sharp decrease compared to last year in the same period (-60%), but an increase compared to the preceding triannual period (+19%). The number of applications by Eritreans (160) also increased compared to the same period last year (-11%), but increased in comparison with the previous triannual period (+55%). The number of asylum seekers from Russia (84) decreased in comparison with the preceding year (-32%), but sharply increased in comparison with the preceding triannual period (+163%).
The four largest nationalities (Syrians, Algerians, Turks and Moroccans) show the same picture in the third triannual period as last year in the same period. The decrease can be ascribed mainly to the decrease in the number of first asylum applications by Nigerians, Iranians and Moldovans. To a
1 For a complete overview of the numbers of first asylum applications per nationality, see the monthly Asylum trends report: https://ind.nl/en/Documents/AT_december_2020_(Hoofdrapport).pdf
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Migration Radar Asylum Summary September - December 2020
lesser degree, the decrease can be ascribed to the reduced number of first asylum applications van Gambians, North Macedonians, Serbians, Ukrainians, Azerbaijani, Ugandans and Chinese.
Figure 1.2 Top 20 nationalities who made asylum applications in T3 2020
Source: METiS Factboards, consulted on 5 January 2021. The Top 20 are based on the top 20 in the third triannual period. Figure generated on datawrapper.de
Figure 1.3 Development of the number of first asylum applications by the top 5 nationalities 2.000 1.800 1.600 1.400 1.200 T3 2019 1.000 T1 2020 800 T2 2020 600 T3 2020 400 200 0 Syria Algeria Turkey Morocco Nigeria
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Migration Radar Asylum Summary September - December 2020
Source: METiS Factboards, consulted on 5 January 2021. The Top 5 are based on the top 5 in the third triannual period
Almost three fourths (73.2%) of the first asylum applicants are men. Most asylum applicants are between 20 and 40 years old. About 5% of the first asylum applicants were UAMs. The majority of them (82%) were boys. About one fifth of the first asylum applicants were accompanied minors, which means that they entered with their family who have custody of them.
1.1.1 Asylum applications by persons coming from “safe countries of origin” In total, 22% (1,172) of the first asylum applications came from countries placed on the list of safe countries of origin. This is an increase compared to the last triannual period (+88%), but a decrease compared to last year in the same period (-19%). In the third triannual period of 2020, two out of the five largest groups of asylum seekers came from countries placed on the list of safe countries of origin, namely Algerians and Moroccans. The number of applicants by Tunisians sharply increased compared to the preceding triannual period (+97, +226%) and compared to the preceding year in the same period (+36, +35%). The absolute number of Tunisians however was still relatively low.
Figure 1.4 Development of the number of first asylum applications by the top 5 nationalities coming from safe countries of origin2 600
500
400 T3 2019
300 T1 2020 T2 2020 200 T3 2020 100
0 Algeria Morocco Tunisia Albania Georgia
Source: METiS Factboards, consulted on 5 January 2021. The Top 5 are based on the top 5 in the third triannual period
1.1.2 Asylum applications by persons from visa-free countries In the third triannual period none of the top ten nationalities came from a visa-free country. The number of first asylum applications by citizens of a visa-free country decreased sharply in the third triannual period (190) compared to the preceding year in the same period (-1,046, -85%) and increased slightly compared to the preceding triannual period (+14, +8%). The fall in comparison with the preceding years can largely be ascribed to the fall in the number of Moldovans (-97%).3 The largest share of asylum applications by asylum seekers from visa-free countries came from Albanians (20%) and Georgians (19%).
2 See the complete list of “safe countries of origin”: https://www.rijksoverheid.nl/onderwerpen/asielbeleid/vraag-en-antwoord/lijst-van- veilige-landen-van-herkomst 3 See the last Migration Radar (T2 2020) about the measures taken at the time
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Migration Radar Asylum Summary September - December 2020
Figure 1.5 Development of the number of asylum applications by the top 5 nationalities from visa- free countries4 700
600
500 T3 2019 400 T1 2020 300 T2 2020 200 T3 2020 100
0 Albania Georgia Moldova Venezuela Ukraine
Source: METiS Factboards, consulted on 5 January 2021. The Top 5 are based on the top 5 in the third triannual period
1.1.3 Asylum applications by unaccompanied minors (UAMs) The number of applications by UAMs in the third triannual period (536) increased compared to the preceding year in the same period (+31%) and even more sharply compared to the preceding triannual period (+152%). The total number of first asylum applications by UAMs in 2020 is comparable to the number in 2019. At the beginning of 2020, however, there were many fewer asylum applications by UAMs, with a sharp increase in the autumn. This is shown in Figure 1.6. The share of UAMs in the total number of first asylum applications rose by about 5% in the preceding triannual periods to 10% in the third triannual period.
Figure 1.6 Course of the number of first asylum applications by UAMs 180 160 140 120 100 80 60 40 20
0
jul-20
jan-20
jun-20
okt-19 okt-20
feb-20
apr-20
sep-20 sep-19
dec-19 dec-20
aug-20
mrt-20
nov-19 nov-20 mei-20 Source: METiS Factboards, consulted on 5 January 2021.
Almost half (45%) of the UAM applications in the third triannual period came from Syrians (240). In second and third place are Moroccans (15%) and Eritreans (9%) with respectively 79 and 50 applications in the third triannual period.
4 See the complete list of visa-free countries: https://www.nederlandwereldwijd.nl/documenten/publicaties/2017/01/01/lijst- visumplichtige-en-niet-visumplichtige-nationaliteiten---kort-verblijf-nl
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Migration Radar Asylum Summary September - December 2020
Figure 1.7 Development of the number of first asylum applications by UAMs, the top 5 nationalities 300
250
200 T3 2019
150 T1 2020 T2 2020 100 T3 2020
50
0 Syria Morocco Eritrea Algeria Afghanistan
Source: METiS Factboards, consulted on 5 January 2021. The Top 5 are based on the top 5 in the third triannual period
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Migration Radar Asylum Summary September - December 2020
2 Annual Review 2020
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Migration Radar Asylum Summary September - December 2020
3 Selected countries of origin In this section several nationalities have been selected in order to provide insight into the background characteristics of certain groups of asylum seekers. The reasons for selecting a certain nationality have to do with an increased influx, developments in the country of origin, or with the country's increased importance as a transit country. Subsequently, in consultation with the focus group, the Migration Radar team made a selection of nationalities. The developments in these countries of origin are described in section 3.
3.1 Afghanistan The number of first asylum applications by Afghans in the third triannual period (156) increased in comparison with the preceding triannual period (+87, +126%), but decreased in comparison with last year in the same period (-42, -21%). Afghans (just as last year in the same period) took 8th place in the top 10 in T3 2020. One third (37%) of the Afghan asylum seekers were women, and two thirds (63%) were men. About a third of the Afghan asylum seekers (34%) were minors, two fifths of whom (40%) stated that they were UAMs.
In the third triannual period, 173 asylum applications by Afghans were processed. The majority of the cases (65%) were granted. The applications that were rejected were rejected because the application was declared unfounded or the person concerned, for example, went to an unknown destination.
3.2 Eritrea The number of first asylum applications by Eritreans in the third triannual period (160) increased in comparison with the preceding triannual period (+57, +55%), but slightly decreased in comparison with last year in the same period (-20, -11%). Eritrea took 7th place in the top 10 first asylum applications in T3 2020. One third of the Eritrean asylum seekers (31%) were women and two thirds (69%) were men. About half of the Eritrean asylum seekers (47%) were minors, two thirds of whom (67%) stated that they were UAMs.
In the third triannual period, 248 asylum applications by Eritreans were processed. The majority (73%) were granted. Of the cases that were rejected, this was done mainly because the persons concerned already had international protection status in the in the EU+/a safe third country, or there was a claim under the Dublin Convention.
3.3 Morocco The number of first asylum applications by Moroccans in the third triannual period (335) increased in comparison with the preceding triannual period (+136, +68%), but was comparable to the number of applications in the same period last year (+11, +3%). Moroccans took fourth place in the top 10 first asylum applications in T3 2020. Virtually all Moroccan asylum seekers (96%) are men, and only a small number (4%) are women. The majority of the applicants are young (between 10 and 30 years old). About a third of them (32%) are minors, and virtually all minors (94%) stated that they were UAMs.
In the third triannual period, 308 asylum applications by Moroccans were processed. The majority of the applications (94%) were rejected. The reasons for rejection were mainly Dublin, destination unknown and safe country of origin.
3.4 Nigeria The number of first asylum applications by Nigerians in the third triannual period (215) sharply decreased in comparison with last year in the same period (-316, -60%), but increased in comparison with the preceding triannual period (+34, +19%). Nigerians take 5th place in the top 10 first asylum applications of T3 2020. One fourth of the Nigerian asylum seekers (25%) were women and three fourths (75%) were men. Most of the asylum seekers were under the age of 40.
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Migration Radar Asylum Summary September - December 2020
About one fifth (18%) of the asylum seekers are minors, about 8% of whom stated that they were UAMs.
In the third triannual period, 231 asylum applications by Nigerians were processed. Virtually all applications (95%) were rejected. The majority of the rejected applications were rejected because of Dublin.
3.5 Russia The number of first asylum applications by Russians in the third triannual period (84) increased in comparison with the preceding triannual period (+52, +163%), but decreased in comparison with last year in the same period (-40, -32%). Russians take 16th place concerning first asylum applications in T3 2020. Almost one third (29%) of the Russian asylum seekers were women and 71% were men. Most asylum seekers were between 30 and 39 years old. Almost one fourth of the asylum seekers (23%) were minors, all of whom were part of a family.
In the third triannual period, 75 asylum applications by Russians were processed. Almost half of them (43%) were granted and 53% were rejected. The applications that were rejected were mainly rejected because of Dublin.
4 Overview of routes and developments
4.1 Routes to the EU
On four migratory routes from countries of origin to the EU, from September 2020, we see a rise in irregular border crossings in comparison with the three previous months. This rise can be ascribed mainly to the lifting of Covid-19 measures in countries or origin, transit and destination. Only on the Central Mediterranean Route can a decrease be seen in the number of irregular border crossings.
4.2 Important socio-political developments in the regions In this section, some important developments in the countries of origin and transit countries are described that could have influence on the number of asylum applications in Europe.
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Migration Radar Asylum Summary September - December 2020
Figure 8 Some important socio-political developments in countries of origin and transit countries
4.2.1 Middle East
4.2.1.1 Azerbaijan Nagorno Karabakh could be considered a 'frozen conflict' since the truce of 1994.5 This fairly stable situation came to an end in mid-2020 when Azerbaijan began attacking some places in the Republic of Armenia. Both parties attacked each other's territory until the end of July.6 On 27 September, Azerbaijan started a military offensive aimed at taking over both (part of) Nagorno Karabakh and taking over (part of) the surrounding territory occupied by Armenia. Azerbaijan succeeded in reconquering a lot of territory.7
On 9 November 2020, under the direction or Russia, Armenia and Azerbaijan reached a cease-fire. This largely confirmed the military gain of territory by Azerbaijan, Armenia promised to withdraw from certain regions where Azerbaijan did not yet have military presence and it was agreed that
5 Britannica.com, Nagorno-Karabakh 6 Washington Post, Clashes resume on Armenian- Azerbaijani border, July 16, 2020, l / Asia Times, Armenia-Azerbaijan escalation shakes the Caucasus, 23 July 2020, / RFE/RL, Azerbaijan Says Russia Has Provided Military Goods To Armenia Since Deadly Border Clashes, 13 August 2020, 7 BBC, Armenia, Azerbaijan and Russia sign Nagorno-Karabakh peace deal, 10 November 2020
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Migration Radar Asylum Summary September - December 2020
Russian soldiers would guard the border of the remaining part of Nagorno Karabakh for the next five years.8
It is not logical that the civil population would migrate further out of Nagorno Karabakh from Armenia. In the Republic of Armenia they can count on support from the government and the population with whom they often share ethnicity, religion and language. The events seem to have strengthened the position of power of the Azerbaijan President Aliyev. This could constitute a push factor for residents who have had enough of the regime.
In the past year increasingly more information has become available on organised fraud related to migration from Azerbaijan9. There are reports of visa fraud10, the illegal production and/or illegal issue of membership cards of a political party,11journalist cards,12 driving licences,13 diplomas14 and criminal documents.15
4.2.1.2 Iraq In mid-October 2020, the Iraqi authorities started closing refugee camps. At the end of November, 12 camps and 2 informal locations were closed. Various government authorities made contradictory statements about the future of the camps in the Kurdistan region, but the camps are expected to remain open in the near future. Many departing displaced persons have told the protecting partners that they could not return to the areas of origin and had no other options for adequate resettlement. There are serious concerns about the welfare of families that leave the camps and about the risks with which they are confronted.16
The number of registered Syrian refugees in Iraq stayed more or less the same at round 241,000 persons. After the border posts had closed for several month, the Peshkhabour Border Crossing Point (PKBCP) was opened with intervals, which facilitated the takeover of Syrian refugees who were already registered in the Kurdish Autonomous Region (KAR). 17
Since the beginning of December 2020, there have been protests in the Province of Sulaymaniya by staff of the public sector, the largest employer in Kurdistan. The protests mainly concern salaries that had not been paid out for months. On 6 December 2020 the protests escalated: officers of the governing parties were attacked and partly set on fire. At least 7 persons died. The Corona pandemic and the fall of oil prices have had serious consequences for the Iraqi economy, which depends on oil for 90% of its revenues.18 There were also demonstrations in the rest of the country.19
In December ISIS claimed responsibility for a rocket attack on the Siniya oil refinery in the northern province of Salaheddin in Iraq and for killing soldiers, police officers, local civil servants
8 BBC, Armenia, Azerbaijan and Russia sign Nagorno-Karabakh peace deal, 10 November 2020 9 See also: Ministry of Foreign Affairs (BZ), General Official Country Report on Azerbaijan, 30 June 2020, par. 2.1.8 10 Meydan TV, Running into a trap: The emigration mafia of Azerbaijan, 23 May 2017 11 Global Voices, Inside the party membership scandal rocking Azerbaijan's opposition, 21 December 2019 12 Trend, Azerbaijani Operational Headquarters: Severe measures to be taken towards quarantine regime violators, 6 April 2020 / Turan, People selling fake journalist IDs detained, 8 April 2020 13 ONA, Group, preparing fake driving licences of Georgia, neutralized in Baku, 30 October 2019 14 OECD, Anti-corruption reforms in Azerbaijan. 4th round of monitoring of the Istanbul Anti-Corruption Action Plan, 2016, p. 86 (15.10.2020). 15 France Blue, Un homme se présentant comme un journaliste d'Azerbaïdjan and exil cible d'une fusillade près de Toulouse, 31 March 2018, Open Democracy (Grigoryeva T. & Djalilov I.), Azerbaijani mafia in the heart of Europe? 5 April 2018 16 OCHA, Iraq: Camp Closure CCCM-OCHA - 06 December 2020, https://www.humanitarianresponse.info/en/operations/iraq/infographic/iraq-camp-closure-cccm-ocha-06-december-2020-en 17 UNHCR, Iraq factsheet, December 2020, https://reporting.unhcr.org/sites/default/files/UNHCR%20Iraq%20Factsheet%20December%20%202020.pdf 18 CNN, Seven dead in protests as Covid-19 hits Iraqi government worker salaries , 9-12-2020, https://edition.cnn.com/2020/12/08/middleeast/iraq-protests-covid-19-intl/index.html 19 Deutsche Welle, Protesters and police clash as thousands mark one year of Iraq demonstrations, 26-10-2020, https://www.dw.com/en/protesters-and-police-clash-as-thousands-mark-one-year-of-iraq-demonstrations/a-55394980
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Migration Radar Asylum Summary September - December 2020
and others in neighbouring Anbar.20 Several ISIS fighters were killed and taken prisoner.21 Attacks by ISIS also took place in the disputed areas.22
4.2.1.3 Iran The coronavirus is still far from under control in Iran. Strict lockdown measures seem to have brought about a reduction in the number of registered cases of infection. Iranians fear that the country will not be able to obtain vaccines because of the American sanctions. According to the authorities, permission was indeed obtained from the US to purchase vaccines.23
The American sanctions are also causing the Iranian economy to continue suffering. At the beginning of October, the US placed 18 Iranian banks on the black list, which made transactions from Iran with foreign countries difficult. Iran has been manufacturing more and more products itself that were imported before. An embargo on conventional arms imposed by the UN Security Council, which had already lasted thirteen years, was lifted in mid-October.24
In Iran there is a debate on the question whether the nuclear agreement from 2015 can be in force again under the same conditions after a new US government takes office, without new negotiations, as it was before the US unilaterally cancelled the agreement in 2018.25 The draft budget for the next Iranian year (March 2021-March 2022) seems to have been based on the assumption that sanctions will be lifted, oil revenues will increase and the exchange rate of the Iranian currency will be stronger.26
Until mid-December, 830,000 undocumented Afghans returned from Iran to Afghanistan. Almost 40% of them did not return voluntarily.27 A new legislative proposal in Iran sets a maximum of 25 years' imprisonment, high fines and/or seizure of possessions on undocumented residence or undocumented entry into Iran by migrants. Iranians who accommodate, transport or offer work to undocumented migrants can also be punished.28
4.2.1.4 Yemen In September 2020 fighting broke out in the oil-rich province of Marib. The Houthis want to gain control of this area because it is the only area in the north that is still in the hands of the internationally recognised government of President Hadi. Moreover, from Marib it is easier for the Houthis to gain control of the southern provinces, which still belong to the area controlled by the Southern Transitional Council.29
20 AlMonitor, Islamic State increases attacks in Iraq’s Sunni areas, 2-12-2020, https://www.al-monitor.com/pulse/originals/2020/12/iraq- syria-saudi-isis.html ; Middle East Monitor, FM: Daesh intensifying activities in Iraq, 27-11-2020, https://www.middleeastmonitor.com/20201127-fm-daesh-intensifying-activities-in-iraq/ 21 Basnews, Iraqi Forces Capture “Dangerous” Member of IS in Nineveh, 7-10-2020, https://www.basnews.com/en/babat/639580 ; Rudaw, Iraqi forces detain ISIS leader in Kirkuk airdrop operation: statement, 10- 10-2020, https://www.rudaw.net/english/middleeast/iraq/10102020 22 EPIC, ISHM: DECEMBER 17 – DECEMBER 24, 2020, https://enablingpeace.org/ishm285/ ; ISHM: SEPTEMBER 3 – SEPTEMBER 10, 2020, https://enablingpeace.org/ishm271/ 23 Reuters, 26-12-2020, Iran extends traffic curfew to lower-risk areas to sustain virus decline, 29-12-2020, https://www.reuters.com/article/idUSKBN2900B6 and RFE/RL, 24-12-2020, 'So Frustrated': Iranians' Fears Skyrocket That They Won't Get Access To COVID-19 Vaccines, 29-12-2020, https://www.rferl.org/a/iran-coronavirus-vaccine-sanctions/31016963.html 24 Al-Jazeera, 18-10-2020, Arms embargo on Iran expires despite US opposition, 29-12-2020, https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2020/10/18/arms-embargo-on-iran-expires-despite-us-opposition 25 The Guardian, 21-10-2020, Even if Biden wins US elections, time is running out to save Iran nuclear deal, 29-12-2020, https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2020/oct/21/even-if-biden-wins-us-election-time-is-running-out-to-save-iran-nuclear-deal 26 Iran International, 06-12-2020, Iran's Draft Budget Is Based On Assumption Of An End To US Sanctions, 29-12-2020, https://iranintl.com/en/iran-economy/irans-draft-budget-based-assumption-end-us-sanctions 27 IOM, 19-12-2020, Return of undocumented Afghans, 29-12-2020, https://afghanistan.iom.int/sites/default/files/Reports/iom_afghanistan-return_of_undocumented_afghans_situation_report_13- 19_dec_2020.pdf 28 RFE/RL, 01-12-2020, Afghan Migrants Could Face 'Shocking' Punishments In Iran Under Draft Law, 29-12-2020, https://www.rferl.org/a/afghanistan-migrants-shocking-punishments-iran-draft-law/30978559.html 29 The Jamestown Foundation, Houthi Offensive in Marib represents dual threat to Yemeni Government, Publication: Terrorism Monitor Volume:18 Issue: 17, By: Brian M. Perkins, 25 September 2020, https://jamestown.org/program/houthi-offensive-in-marib-represents- dual-threat-to-yemeni-government/
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Migration Radar Asylum Summary September - December 2020
The UN Security Council has insisted that a political solution of the conflict in Yemen is possible only if all parties and all groups in society are involved in the political process and in implementing the Riyadh Agreement. This Agreement, concluded in November 2019 between the internationally recognised government of Abd Rabu Mansour Hadi and the Southern Transitional Council, is for the purpose of dividing the power of the fighting parties fairly and striving for cooperation in the areas of politics, economics, military matters and security. The UN Security Council has also pushed for an immediate cease of all hostilities throughout all of Yemen.30
The still continuing conflict has caused the UN to express its concerns about the humanitarian situation and to called for stabilisation of the security situation, because the country is on the verge of famine.31 Between October and December 2020, 13.5 million people (45% of the population) were faced with acute food shortages.32
4.2.1.5 Syria The conflict in the Idlib region is continuing. The Syrian authorities are slowly reconquering more and more territory from the opposition. They are assisted in doing so by Russian air bombardments. This is viewed as a warning by Russia to Turkey.33 Turkey is abandoning several military positions in the Idlib region.34
The number of registered Syrian refugees in Lebanon has remained virtually stable at round 880,000 persons.35 The tensions between Lebanese and Syrian refugees are increasing, partly due to the economic crisis in Lebanon and the accusation that Syrians are grabbing jobs.36 The economic crisis in Lebanon, the Covid-19 measures and all this, aggravated by the explosion in the port of Beirut in the beginning of August, have worsened the economic position of the Syrian refugees even more. Almost 90% of them are now said to live under the extreme poverty limit of less than three dollars a day.37Both Syrians and Lebanese attempt to reach Cyprus by boat from Lebanon.38
The number of registered Syrian refugees in Jordan has also remained stable at somewhat more than 650,000 persons. Less than one fourth of them live in a camp.39 The number of Covid-19 cases in the refugee camps is increasing but is below the average in Jordan as a whole. Refugees will be included in the national vaccination plan in Jordan. In addition, some refugees with a medical background will be given a temporary permit to assist with the national Covid-19 action
30 UN Security Council, Security Council Press Statement on Yemen, SC/14329, 16 October 2020, https://www.un.org/press/en/2020/sc14329.doc.htm 31 United Nations, Most Urgent Task in Yemen Is to Prevent Widespread Famine, Humanitarian Affairs Chief Tells Security Council, as Speakers Push for Nationwide Ceasefire, 11 November 2020, https://www.un.org/press/en/2020/sc14352.doc.htm 32 Integrated Food Security Phase Classification (IPC), Yemen: Acute Food Insecurity Situation October - December 2020 and Projection for January - June 2021, http://www.ipcinfo.org/ipc-country-analysis/details-map/en/c/1152947/ 33 Voice of America, 13-12-2020, Government Troops Target Rebels, Jihadists in Syria's Idlib, 28-12-2020, https://www.voanews.com/extremism-watch/government-troops-target-rebels-jihadists-syrias-idlib and Al-Jazeera, 27-10-2020, Russian strike on Syria’s Idlib fighters a ‘message’ to Turkey, 28-12-2020, https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2020/10/27/russian-strike-in-syrias- idlib-a-message-to-ankara 34 Middle East Eye, 10-12-2020, Turkey to abandon more military positions in Syria's Idlib to 'eliminate risks', 28-12-2020, https://www.middleeasteye.net/news/turkey-syria-idlib-withdraw-more-military-positions 35 UNHCR, 30-09-2020, Syria Regional Refugee Response, 28-12-2020, http://data2.unhcr.org/en/situations/syria/location/71 36 The Guardian, 27-12-2020, Syrians refugees flee Lebanon camp after tents set on fire, 28-12-2020, https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/dec/27/syrians-refugees-flee-lebanon-camp-after-tents-set-on-fire and Al-Jazeera, 27-12- 2020, Lebanon arrests 8 as Syrian refugee camp set ablaze after fight, 28-12-2020, https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2020/12/27/syrian- refugee-camp-in-lebanon-set-ablaze-after-row 37 U.S. News, 03-12-2020, Lebanese Crisis Deepens Syrian Refugee Misery, 28-12-2020, https://www.usnews.com/news/world/articles/2020-12-03/lebanese-crisis-deepens-syrian-refugee-misery 38 France24, 07-10-2020, Being a refugee in Lebanon: Beirut blast makes life harder for Syrian refugees, 28-12-2020, https://www.france24.com/en/middle-east/20201007-being-a-refugee-in-lebanon-beirut-blast-makes-life-harder-for-syrian-refugees and Human Rights Watch, 29-09-2020, Cyprus: Asylum Seekers Summarily Returned, 28-12-2020, https://www.hrw.org/news/2020/09/29/cyprus-asylum-seekers-summarily-returned and The Independent, 18-12-2020, Dying for a better life: On board Lebanon’s ‘death caravans’ to Europe, 28-12-2020, https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/middle-east/lebanon- cyprus-migrants-sea-rescue-b1776170.html 39 UNHCR, 04-11-2020, Syria Regional Refugee Response Jordan, 28-12-2020, https://data2.unhcr.org/en/situations/syria/location/36
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Migration Radar Asylum Summary September - December 2020
plan.40 As a result of Covid-19 measures, many Syrian refugees have lost their jobs. Consequently, many of them have less income, which leads to more food insecurity.41
In the second half of 2020. Jordan deported several dozen Syrians to the Rukban camp in the no man's land between Jordan and Syria. The reason for this is not always clear. Jordan sometimes puts forward 'security reasons'. The alternative for residents of the camp to escape from the poor circumstances is to depart to the Syrian government area.42
4.2.1.6 Turkey On 26 November 2020, a court in Turkey sentenced 337 military officers and others to life imprisonment in one of the largest trials in connection with the attempted coup in 2016. Air force pilots and army commanders were among the almost 500 defendants who were accused of wanting to overthrow the government of President Erdoğan. They allegedly directed the plot from the Akinci air force base near Ankara.43
In various waves of arrests throughout Turkey, persons have been picked up in the past few months who are suspected of having ties with either the Gülen movement or with the PKK.4445 The Turkish police have also arrested about seventy people based on the accusation of terrorist activities. All arrestees are put in connection with the Democratic Society Congress (DTK), an organisation that strives for the introduction of basic democracy in the Kurdish region and is linked to the PKK.46 Eight judges and three prosecutors were dismissed by the Turkish Council of Judges and Prosecutors (CJP) on 14 October 2020 for alleged ties with the Gülen movement.47
The Turkish parliament has adopted an Act under which the Turkish Minister of Internal Affairs is henceforth able to suspend the management board of an NGO as soon as the Justice authorities open an investigation into terrorist activities of that organisation. According to the Erdoğan government, the Act ensues from counterterrorism agreements made in connection with the UN, but critics say that Turkey abuses those agreements to muzzle opponents.48
UNHCR support refugees with their Covid-19 Cash assistance programme in cooperation with the Turkish authorities.49
40 UNHCR, 10-12-2020, UNHCR Jordan COVID-19 response, 28-12-2020, https://reporting.unhcr.org/sites/default/files/UNHCR%20Jordan%20COVID-19%20update%20-%2010%20December%202020.pdf 41 SyriaDirect, 15-11-2020, COVID-19 pandemic disproportionately impacts Syrian refugees in Jordan, 28-12-2020, https://syriadirect.org/news/covid-19-pandemic-disproportionately-impacts-syrian-refugees-in-jordan/ 42 Foreign Policy, 26-10-2020, Stay and Starve, or Leave and Die, 28-12-2020, https://foreignpolicy.com/2020/10/26/al-tanf-rukban- refugee-syria-humanitarian/ 43 BBC, Turkey court jails hundreds for life for 2016 coup plot against Erdogan, 26-11-2020, https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe- 55083955 44 Anadolu Agency, Turkey arrests 155 FETO terror suspects, 1-12-2020, https://www.aa.com.tr/en/july-15-coup-bid/turkey-arrests-155- feto-terror-suspects/2061310 ; Deutsche Welle, Turkey arrests dozens over alleged links to Erdogan rival, 13-10-2020, https://www.dw.com/en/turkey-arrests-dozens-over-alleged-links-to-erdogan-rival/a-55251876 45 Human Rights Watch, Turkey: Lawyers Arrested in Terror Probe, 16-9-2020, https://www.hrw.org/news/2020/09/16/turkey-lawyers- arrested-terror-probe 46 Volkskrant, Arrestatiegolf onder Turkse Koerden , 20-11-2020, https://www.volkskrant.nl/nieuws-achtergrond/arrestatiegolf-onder- turkse-koerden~b1e8131b/ ; Anadolu Agency, Arrest warrants issued for 101 suspects in Diyarbakır, 20-11-2020, https://www.hurriyetdailynews.com/arrest-warrants-issued-for-101-suspects-in-diyarbakir-160203 47 ICJ, Turkey: dismissal of judges and prosecutors fundamentally unfair, 21-10-2020, https://www.icj.org/turkey-dismissal-of-judges-and- prosecutors-fundamentally-unfair/ 48 Human Rights Watch, Turkey: Draft Law Threatens Civil Society, 24-12-2020, https://www.hrw.org/news/2020/12/24/turkey-draft-law- threatens-civil-society 49 UNHCR, Operational update Turkey, November 2020, https://reporting.unhcr.org/sites/default/files/UNHCR%20Turkey%20Operational%20Update%20November%202020.pdf
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Migration Radar Asylum Summary September - December 2020
4.2.2 Africa
4.2.2.1 Algeria On 3 September 2020, an Algerian court sentenced two men to three years' imprisonment and a fine, and 42 others to a suspended sentence of one year after mass arrests at what was, according to the police, a 'homo marriage'. The court convicted the 44 persons of "homosexual relations", "public indecency" and "subjecting others to harm by violating Covid-19-related quarantine measures."50
On 1 November 2020, Algeria voted on a new constitution. President Abdelmadjid Tebboune called this "a vote for the new Algeria". The new constitution contains some of the changes that were demanded by the demonstrators, who had been taking to the streets since February 2019 (Hirak movement). The term in office of a president was for instance limited to twice five years. The turnout was only 23.7%. The people do not view the new constitution as a way to meet their demands, such as replacement of the entire old political elite by new politicians, the fight against corruption and withdrawal of the army from politics.51 On 26 November the European Parliament adopted a critical resolution in which attention was focused on the worsening human rights situation in Algeria.52
In recent months, the Algerian judiciary has intensified the prosecution and conviction of journalists, Hirak activists, political opponent and bloggers.535455 Early in October, there were again demonstrations by the Hirak in various cities, despite a ban. The demonstrators called for the release of members of the Hirak. According to the human rights organisation CNLD, more than 60 people are behind bars for acts connected with the protest movement.56
According to humanitarian organisations in Niger, since the beginning of September Algeria has driven more than 3,400 migrants to Niger, including 430 children and 240 women. Security staff separated children from their families during mass arrests, deprived migrants and asylum seekers of their possessions and did not allow them to challenge their removal or to be screened for refugee status. Dozens of asylum seekers who are registered with the United Nations refugee organisation, UNHCR, are among those who were arrested and a number of them have already been deported.57 In October the Algerian Minister of Internal Affairs announced a new operation to combat ‘illegal migration’. 58
50 Human Rights Watch, Algeria: Mass Convictions for Homosexuality, 15-10-2020https://www.hrw.org/news/2020/10/15/algeria-mass- convictions-homosexuality 51 Al Jazeera, Algerians back constitutional reforms amid low voter turnout, 2-11-2020, https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2020/11/2/low- voter-turnout-hits-algeria-referendum-amid-boycott-calls 52 Amnesty International, Algeria: European Parliament calls for action on human rights and expresses solidarity with demonstrators, 27- 11-2020, https://www.amnesty.org/en/latest/news/2020/11/algeria-european-parliament-calls-for-action-on-human-rights-and- expresses-solidarity-with-demonstrators/ 53 France24, Algérie : une peine de prison réduite pour un militant du Hirak accusé "d'offense à l'islam", 25-11-2020, https://www.france24.com/fr/afrique/20201125-alg%C3%A9rie-une-peine-de-prison-r%C3%A9duite-pour-un-militant-du-hirak- accus%C3%A9-d-offense-%C3%A0-l-islam 54 AI – Amnesty International (Author), ARTICLE 19 (Author), FIDH – International Federation for Human Rights (Author), IFJ – International Federation of Journalists (Author), IPI – International Press Institute (Author), RSF – Reporters Sans Frontières (Author), Adil Soz; et al. (Author): Subject: 31 human rights groups call for urgent response to the Algerian government’s intensifying crackdown on civil society and journalists amidst the COVID-19 pandemic [MDE 28/3115/2020], 24 September 2020 https://www.ecoi.net/en/file/local/2038051/MDE2831152020ENGLISH.pdf 55 AlSharq alAwsat, Algeria Prosecutors Seek Tougher Jail Term for Prominent Activist, 26-12-2020, https://english.aawsat.com/home/article/2704131/algeria-prosecutors-seek-tougher-jail-term-prominent-activist 56 Al Jazeera, Hundreds take to Algiers streets despite ban on protests, 5-10-2020, https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2020/10/5/hundreds- protest-in-algiers-despite-ban-on-gatherings 57 Human Rights Watch, Algeria: Migrants, Asylum Seekers Forced Out, 9-10-2020,https://www.hrw.org/news/2020/10/09/algeria- migrants-asylum-seekers-forced-out 58 El Watan, Le ministre de l’Intérieur annonce une intensification des contrôles et le démantèlement des réseaux d’accueil : Nouvelle opération de rapatriement des migrants subsahariens, 3-10-2020 https://www.elwatan.com/edition/actualite/nouvelle-operation-de- rapatriement-des-migrants-subsahariens-03-10-2020
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Migration Radar Asylum Summary September - December 2020
4.2.2.2 Ethiopia The Ethiopian President Abiy, an ethnic Oromo, formed his own political party in December 2019, the Prosperity Party. In his own words because the coalition party he originally chose and of which he was elected as leader, the EPRDF, was not sufficiently multi-ethnic but was dominated too much by ethnic Tigray and their party the TPLF, whereas they only form 7% of the Ethiopian population. Abiy also wanted to take a more liberal course and reduce the ethnic federalism within the Ethiopian state. Because the vast majority of the former EPRDF members of parliament followed Abiy, his Prosperity Party also immediately had a majority in the parliament. The TPLF, however, decided no longer to form part of the new Prosperity Party.59 Abiy's ambitious reform plans also gave rise to a lot of resistance among others.
In June 2020 Abiy announced that the elections foreseen for August would be postponed because of Covid19. This postponement was very unfavourably received by the TPLF, of which, in the meantime, increasingly more representatives were removed from the government by Abiy, and which had lost substantial political power.60 Against the will of Abiy and the federal government of Ethiopia, the TPLF, still reigning supreme in the federal state Tigray, decided to hold elections anyway in its own federal state.61 The TPLF won the elections declared illegal by the federal government. The federal government did not recognise the federal state government and, vice versa, the federal state government called the federal government illegal, because it had not gained power through elections. After TPLF troops had attacked a camp of federal military troops, the federal government declared a state of emergency in Tigray.62 After it had become clear that the TPLF was not planning to yield, the federal government also decided to conduct military intervention. In this way a regional war actually broke out early in November in the federal state Tigray. On 28 November, after retaking the capital of the federal state, Mekelle, Abiy declared victory. Perhaps a bit prematurely, because parts of the TPLF troops had retreated to remote areas in order to conduct a guerrilla war from there.63
As by far the most refugee camps for Eritrean refugees are located precisely in the federal state Tigray, the seriously worsened humanitarian situation there will also have consequences for the Eritrean refugees.64 At the end of November, the UNHCR announced that it no longer had access to the refugee camps in Tigray and was therefore unable to make statements about the humanitarian situation of the approximately 96,000 Eritrean refugees in Tigray.65 In the meantime, certainly 43,000 people, including many children, proved to have fled from Tigray to the neighbouring country Sudan. The UNHCR praised the Sudanese government for its hospitality and efforts that the country had demonstrated, but requested international assistance because, according to the organisation, it is possible that the numbers will increase.66 On 11 December the UNHCR reported a decreasing influx of refugees from Tigray to Sudan to fewer than 500 a day. The total was however meanwhile almost 50,000.67
4.2.2.3 Libya Military representatives of General Khalifa Haftar and Prime Minister Fayez al-Sarraj agreed a cease-fire in Libya during negotiations in Geneva on 23 October 2020. Both parties to the conflict announced that they would withdraw from the frontlines and demobilise armed groups. Foreign fighters had to leave the country before 23 January 2021.68
59 BBC, Ethiopia's Abiy Ahmed gets a new ruling party, 22-11-2019. 60 Deutsche Welle, Crisis looms in Ethiopia as elections are postponed, 16-06-2020. 61 Reuters, Ethiopia's Tigray holds regional election in defiance of federal government, 8-09-2020. 62 Aljazeera, Ethiopia declares state of emergency in opposition-ruled Tigray, 4-11-2020. 63 The Economist, Victory, defeat and confusion In Ethiopia, Abiy Ahmed has won the battle but not the war, 1-12-2020. 64 UN News, UNHCR asks Ethiopia for urgent access to 96,000 Eritreans cut off without food, 1-12-2020. 65 UNHCR, Tigray situation update, 27-11-2020. 66 UN News, UN refugee agency appeals for $147 million to support thousands of Ethiopians fleeing to Sudan, 30-11-2020. 67 UNHCR, Ethiopian refugees report obstacles to reach safety in Sudan as numbers approach 50,000, 11-12-2020. 68 European Council, Declaration by the High Representative on behalf of the EU on the announcement of a Ceasefire Agreement in Libya , 25-10-2020, https://www.consilium.europa.eu/en/press/press-releases/2020/10/25/declaration-by-the-high-representative-on-behalf-of- the-eu-on-the-announcement-of-a-ceasefire-agreement-in-libya/ ; ICG, Fleshing Out the Libya Ceasefire Agreement, 4-11-2020, https://www.crisisgroup.org/middle-east-north-africa/north-africa/libya/b80-fleshing-out-libya-ceasefire-agreement
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Migration Radar Asylum Summary September - December 2020
On 10 November 2020, the prominent dissident, activist and human rights advocate Hanan al- Barassi was shot to death in Benghazi by unknown gunmen. She was an outspoken critic of Khalifa Haftar.69 On 16 November 2020, the 75 participants in the Libyan Political Dialogue Forum (LPDF) meeting in Tunis agreed to hold national elections on 24 December 2021. In addition, a new transitional government will be formed to supervise the build-up to the elections. The new government was supposed to tackle the deteriorating public services and corruption quickly, two issues that were the reason for protests this summer on both sides of the frontlines.70 Furthermore, in November a shipwreck took the lives of at least 74 migrants in front of the coast of Khums in Libya - 120 kilometres east of Tripoli. According to the IOM, the boat transported more than 120 people. including women and children.71
In the city of Tarhuna, the authorities discovered four more mass graves after eight mass graves had already been discovered in mid-June 2020 in and round the city. The exact number of people in the graves is still unclear, but some of them showed signs of violence. Tarhuna was governed by the Kani militia, which was allied to General Khalifa Haftar until it was retaken at the beginning of June 2020 by troops of the Government of National Accord (GNA).72
The Libyan government announced in October that it would close the migrant centres on the coast and relocate the migrants to centres in the interior. By doing so, they aim to help to prevent human trafficking. Desert patrols are deployed to combat human trafficking further.73
4.2.2.4 Morocco In November 2020, the Moroccan authorities and the Polisario Front, that strives for independence of the Western Sahara, opened fire on each other in the buffer zone in the Western Sahara. This put an end to the cease-fire that had applied between these parties since 1991. The Moroccan authorities stated that they were willing to adhere to the cease-fire. The Polisario Front stated that the battle has resumed and that there are continuing battles. The negotiations between the two parties under the direction of the United Nations stopped completely in 2019.74
In December 2020, under the influence of the United Nations, Morocco recognised Israel's right to exist and restored diplomatic ties with Israel.75 In exchange for the deal with Israel, the United States promised to be the first country in the world to recognise the annexation of the Western Sahara by Morocco. This gave rise to the fear that the unilateral recognition by the US would further destabilise the region.76
Another important development in Morocco is the collapse of the tourism sector: in provincial Moroccan cities, the revenues from tourism have dried up because of the pandemic, the squid trade on the cost is partly lying idle and surfing tourists are staying away. Migrants to the Canary Islands now constitute a source of income for persons involved in human smuggling.
69 Human Rights Watch, Libya: Outspoken Benghazi Lawyer Murdered, 11-11-2020, https://www.hrw.org/news/2020/11/11/libya- outspoken-benghazi-lawyer-murdered 70 AlJazeera, UN hails Libya elections ‘breakthrough’ at Tunis political talks, 11-11-2020, https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2020/11/11/talks-over-libyas-future-reached-a-breakthrough-un 71 Middle East Eye, Bodies of four children wash up on Libyan coast: Red Crescent, 16-12-2020, https://www.middleeasteye.net/news/libya-bodies-four-children-wash-coast 72 Middle East Monitor, New mass grave found in Libya's Tarhuna, 15-11-2020, https://www.middleeastmonitor.com/20201115-new- mass-grave-found-in-libyas-tarhuna/ 73 Infomigrants (21 October 2020), Libya: Tripoli to move migrant centers to country interior 74 De Volkskrant, Marokko and Polisario raken na 29 jaar wapenstilstand toch weer slaags, dd. 16 November 2020, found on: https://www.volkskrant.nl/nieuws-achtergrond/marokko-en-polisario-raken-na-29-jaar-wapenstilstand-toch-weer-slaags~be872f37/ 75 De Volkskrant, Ook Marokko herstelt banden met Israël onder aanvoering VS, dd. 22 December 2020, found on: https://www.volkskrant.nl/nieuws-achtergrond/ook-marokko-herstelt-banden-met-israel-onder-aanvoering-vs~b6317fd4/ 76 idem
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Migration Radar Asylum Summary September - December 2020
4.2.2.5 Nigeria The last triannual period of 2020 was mainly characterised by the ´End SARS´ protests in various cities of Nigeria. SARS stands for the Special Anti-Robbery Squad, that has a notorious reputation. In June 2020, Amnesty International published a report in which 82 cases of torture, assault and extrajudicial executions by SARS were mentioned. The victims of the police unit are mainly men between 18 and 35 years of age from low income groups and other vulnerable groups.77
The violent reactions of the security troops to the aforementioned protests led to at least 69 deaths.78 At least 12 peaceful demonstrators were killed on 20 October during the Lekki Toll Gate Massacre in Lagos, while hundreds of others were arrested.79 On 22 October, President Muhammadu Buhari announced the dissolution of the SARS.80 This however was immediately replaced by a different police unit: Special Weapons and Tactics (SWAT), without an assessment having been made of the causes of the police violence.81
For the rest, the security situation, as mentioned also in other Migration Radars, remains worrisome especially in the northern federal states. At the end of November in Borno State more than 100 rice farmers were murdered by Boko Haram in a retribution action.82 The terrorist grouping is also held responsible for several abductions of boys and girls from schools.83 84 85
At economic level, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) has stated that the Nigerian economy will possibly recover in 2021.86 At present the Nigerian economy is being hit hard by the COVID-19 pandemic and the exchange rate fluctuations of the oil price on the international market.87 The World Bank estimates that 56% of the households in Nigeria have suffered loss of income as a result of COVID-19.88
4.2.3 Asia – Afghanistan On 29 February 2020, the US and the Taliban, without the knowledge of the Afghan government, concluded an agreement in which it was agreed that the US would withdraw all its troops from Afghanistan in phases within fourteen months at most, and the Taliban promised not to allow any activities on Afghan territory that would affect the security of the US. In mid-November 2020 there were still approx. 4,500 American troops in Afghanistan. President Trump would have liked all American troops to withdraw from Afghanistan before Christmas 2020, but after consulting with several top advisors from the army, among others, he agreed to a halving of the troops at the
77 Amnesty International, Nigeria: Horrific reign of impunity by SARS makes mockery of anti-torture law, 26 June 2020, https://www.amnesty.org/en/latest/news/2020/06/nigeria-horrific-reign-of-impunity-by-sars-makes-mockery-of-anti-torture-law/, consulted on 4 January 2021 78 Al Jazeera, Nigeria says 51 civilians, 18 security forces killed in unrest, 23 October 2020, https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2020/10/23/nigeria-says-51-civilians-18-security-forces-dead-in-unrest, consulted on 4 January 2021 79 CNN, 'They pointed their guns at us and started shooting', 19 November 2020, https://edition.cnn.com/2020/11/18/africa/lagos- nigeria-lekki-toll-gate-feature-intl/index.html, consulted on 4 January 2021 80 Vanguard, Full text of President Muhammadu Buhari’s speech, 22 October 2020, https://www.vanguardngr.com/2020/10/full-text-of- president-muhammadu-buharis-speech/, consulted on 4 January 2021 81 BBC, End Swat: Nigerians reject police unit replacing hated Sars, 14 October 2020, https://www.bbc.com/news/world-africa-54531449, consulted on 4 January 2021 82 Washington Post, Militants massacre at least 110 civilians on Nigerian rice farms, November 30, 2020, https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/africa/nigeria-massacre-farmers-borno/2020/11/30/f4437886-3317-11eb-9699- 00d311f13d2d_story.html, consulted on 16 December 2020 83 CNN, Boko Haram claims to have kidnapped Nigerian schoolboys, in unverified audio message, 15 December 2020, https://edition.cnn.com/2020/12/15/africa/boko-haram-nigerian-schoolboys-intl/index.html, consulted on 16 December 2020 84 Premium Times, Abducted Katsina schoolboys freed, 17 December 2020, https://www.premiumtimesng.com/news/headlines/431799- breaking-abducted-katsina-schoolboys-freed.html, consulted on 21 December 2020 85 Premium Times, In fresh Katsina attack, bandits kidnap 80 students; all ‘rescued’ later, 20 December 2020, https://www.premiumtimesng.com/regional/nwest/432212-in-fresh-katsina-attack-bandits-kidnap-80-students-all-rescued-later.html, consulted on 21 December 2020 86 Leadership, Recession: IMF Predicts Nigeria’s Early Exit Next Year, 12 December 2020, https://leadership.ng/recession-imf-predicts- nigerias-early-exit-next-year/, consulted on 16 December 2020 87 This Day, Moody’s: COVID-19, Oil Price Shocks to Curb Nigerian Economic Growth, 15 December 2020, https://www.thisdaylive.com/index.php/2020/12/15/moodys-covid-19-oil-price-shocks-to-curb-nigerian-economic-growth/, consulted on 16 December 2020 88 World Bank, Socioeconomic Impacts of COVID-19 in Four African Countries, November 2020, https://openknowledge.worldbank.org/handle/10986/34733, consulted on 4 January 2021
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Migration Radar Asylum Summary September - December 2020
beginning of January 2021.89 Early in December 2020 negotiators from the Afghan government and the Taliban reached agreement on the procedures to be followed during the peace discussions.90 Attacks by the Taliban against Afghan security troops continued throughout the year.
UNAMA recently reported 5939 civilian victims during the period from 1 January to 30 September of this year as a result of the conflict (2117 deaths and 3822 wounded), a decrease by 30% compared to the same period in 2019 and the lowest number in the first nine months of a year since 2012. UNAMA stated that in particular fewer civilian victims fell during suicide attacks by rebel groups such as the Taliban and ISKP and by a sharp decrease in air actions by international troops since March 2020.91
According to UNHCR and IOM, in 2020 about 800,000 undocumented Afghans returned from Iran and Pakistan (and about 2000 documented Afghans).9293
According to UNOCHA, in the period from 20 Augustus to 20 December, almost 140,000 people were displaced by the conflict in the country itself. During the entire period from 1 January to 20 December 2020, those were about 330,000. In T3 of 2020, therefore, more Afghans were displaced than in T1 and T2 of this year.94
4.2.4 Europe – Russia According to Human Rights Watch human rights are violated in Russia. This affects inter alia journalists, peaceful demonstrators, political opposition, political prisoners, human rights activists, LGBTIs, certain religious groups, ethnic minorities, prisoners, disabled persons and many others.95 As an illustration, on the Rainbow Europe Index of ILGA in 2020 Russia scored only 10 out of 100 points for the rights of LGBTIs, whereby 100 points stands for ‘respect of human rights, full equality’.96 As a result of the corona crisis, Russia is faced with a shrinking economy, which also caused unemployment to rise.97
Covid19 also had consequences in the area of human rights. In the course of the pandemic, various people were charged with spreading information about Covid-19, regarding which it was
89 NYT, November 16, 2020. Trump Is Said to Be Preparing to Withdraw Troops From Afghanistan, Iraq and Somalia. https://www.nytimes.com/2020/11/16/us/politics/trump-troop-withdrawal-afghanistan-somalia-iraq.html; The Guardian, 17 November 2020. Trump reportedly plans to withdraw nearly half of US troops in Afghanistan. https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/nov/16/trump-plans-us-troops-withdrawal-afghanistan 90 NYT, December 2, 2020. Afghan and Taliban Negotiators Agree on Peace Talks’ Procedures. https://www.nytimes.com/2020/12/02/world/asia/afghan-and-taliban-negotiators-agree-on-peace-talks-procedures.html; The Guardian, 3 December 2020. Afghan government and Taliban agree rules for peace talks. https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/dec/03/afghan-government-and-taliban-agree-rules-for-peace-talks 91 UNAMA, 13 December 2020. Afghanistan Protection Of Civilians In Armed Conflict. Third Quarter Report: 1 January To 30 September 2020. p. 1. https://unama.unmissions.org/sites/default/files/unama_protection_of_civilians_in_armed_conflict_- _3rd_quarter_report_2020_revised_13dec_.pdf 92 UNHCR, 17 December 2020. Afghanistan: Voluntary Repatriation Response Snapshot (02 January – 30 November 2020). https://reliefweb.int/report/afghanistan/unhcr-afghanistan-voluntary-repatriation-response-snapshot-02-january-30-november 93 IOM, December 2020. Return of undocumented Afghans, Weekly situation report (06-12 December 2020). https://afghanistan.iom.int/sites/default/files/Reports/iom_afghanistan-return_of_undocumented_afghans_situation_report_06- 12_dec_2020.pdf; IOM, August 2020. Return of undocumented Afghans, Weekly situation report (23-29 August 2020). https://afghanistan.iom.int/sites/default/files/Reports/iom_afghanistan-return_of_undocumented_afghans_situation_report_23- 29_aug_2020.pdf 94 UNOCHA, 20 December 2020. Afghanistan: Conflict induced Displacements (as of 20 December 2020) Actual displacement. https://www.humanitarianresponse.info/en/operations/afghanistan/idps 95 US State Department, 2019 Country Report on Human Rights Practices, March 2020, https://www.state.gov/reports/2019-country- reports-on-human-rights-practices/russia/; Human Rights Watch, Russia, https://www.hrw.org/europe/central-asia/russia 96 ILGA, Rainbow Europe map 2020, https://www.ilga-europe.org/rainboweurope/2020 97 The World Bank, Russia Economic Report, 16 December 2020, https://www.worldbank.org/en/country/russia/publication/rer
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asserted that this was false. This also concerns care workers who exposed the shortages of medical facilities to fight Covid-19. In addition, privacy rights were violated as well.
A referendum in which the Russian population were allowed to express their opinions on a number of constitutional amendments was held at the end of June/beginning of July. The amendments entail, inter alia, that President Putin can remain until 2036, that the Russian constitution is placed above international law and that marriage is laid down in the constitution as a bond between a man and a woman. The constitutional amendments were adopted. The independent organisation Golos, that monitors elections, called the referendum unfair. Golos asserts this for example because opponents of the amendments were not given the chance to explain their position.98
In August opposition leader Aleksei Navalny was poisoned, most likely by the Russian security service FSB.99 He was then treated in a hospital in Germany. After his recovery, on his return to Russia he was arrested on 17 January 2021 at an airfield in Moscow.100 Many people protested at the police station where Navalny was held in custody.101 Several European countries and the US condemned Navalny’s arrest and demanded his release.
98 The New York Times, The Theatrical Method in Putin’s Vote Madness, July 1, 2020, https://www.nytimes.com/2020/07/01/world/europe/putin-referendum-vote-russia.html 99 The Guardian, The men accused of poisoning Alexei Navalny, 14 December 2020, https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/dec/14/the-men-accused-of-poisoning-alexei-navalny 100 NRC, Kremlincriticus Navalny gearresteerd bij terugkeer in Rusland, 17 January 2021, https://www.nrc.nl/nieuws/2021/01/17/vliegtuig- kremlincriticus-navalny-omgeleid-geland-op-andere-luchthaven-a4027904 101 NRC, Navalny zit in de cel, maar is terug, 18 January 2021, https://www.nrc.nl/nieuws/2021/01/18/navalny-zit-in-de-cel-maar-is-terug- a4028074
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5 Policy and other developments
In this section national and international policy and other developments are described that were introduced in the first triannual period of 2020 and could have influence on the asylum flow to Europe or the Netherlands.
5.1 European and international policy and other developments
European Pact on Migration and Asylum On 23 September the European Commission presented a new pact on migration and asylum. In this pact, all different elements are set out that are considered necessary to arrive at a European approach to migration. A holistic approach is mentioned, in which possibilities for cooperation with countries of origin and transit countries, successful integration of refugees and return of persons who have no right to residence are discussed.102
Protection of Greek borders In October, on the northern border with Turkey, Greece started extending the wall. The wall will be extended by 26 kilometres, will be 5 metres high and will be finished in April 2021. In order to guard this border further and deter migrants, security cameras, sirens and patrols are used. 800 additional border guards will be engaged.103 The Hungarian Minister of Foreign Affairs stated at the end of October that Hungary is willing to help to patrol the Greek borders.104
Agreements ensuing from the increase of migrants to Cyprus In the autumn, various boats with irregular migrants from Lebanon arrived at Cyprus. The Cypriot local authorities stated that the island cannot deal with more asylum seekers. The local authorities were also under fire through accusations of pushbacks of boats to Lebanon. At the beginning of October, Cyprus and Lebanon again confirmed an agreement in which Lebanese authorities promised to take back migrants who attempted to reach Cyprus by boat.105
Agreements ensuing from the increase of migrants to the Canary Islands Because of the enormous increase of migrants to the Canary Islands, in November the Spanish Minister sent police to the airfield in the capital city Nouakchott of Mauritania to keep back departing migrants from the source.106 At the end of November a meeting took place between the Spanish and Moroccan Ministers of Internal Affairs in order to strengthen cooperation in relation to migration. The focus of this meeting was on the Moroccan migrants who travel from the Sahara to the Canary Islands and the criminal organisations that make this crossing possible.107
The Spanish government prefers not to transfer migrants to the mainland of Spain, because this could send a signal that the Canary Islands can serve as a springboard to Europe. The focus lies on the removal of persons who are not eligible for refugee status in Europe. Spain has made bilateral agreements with approximately 6 surrounding countries in Africa, but the number of
102 European Commission (23 September 2020), New Pact on Migration and Asylum, setting out a fairer, more European approach 103 The Guardian (20 October 2020), Greece extends wall on Turkish border as refugee row deepens; Joop, BNN Vara (20 October 2020), Griekenland trekt kilometersland ijzeren gordijn op aan Grens met Turkije 104 About Hungary (3 November 2020), FM: Hungary is prepared to assist Greece with the protection of its borders 105 AP News (6 October 2020), Lebanon affirms deal to take back migrants sailing to Cyprus 106 Baviation Business Aviation News (13 November 2020), A Civil Guard CN235 stationed in Mauritania in response to the Canary Island migration crisis, consulted on 10-02-21: https://baviation.cn/a-civil-guard-cn235-stationed-in-mauritania-in-response-to-the-canary- islands-migration-crisis-noticias/716/ 107 Atalayar (20 November 2020), Morocco and Spain strengthen their cooperation on migration
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repatriations has decreased sharply because of Covid-19.108 In December Spain did start repatriating about 60-80 Moroccan migrants a week.109
Closing of refugee camps in Bosnia and Herzegovina In Bosnia and Herzegovina the largest reception centre, Bira, was closed because a lot of nuisance by migrants was experienced. There is a conflict about this between the authorities because the circumstances for alternative reception are bad.110
Asylum policy in Hungary in conflict with EU asylum legislation On 10 December the European Court of Justice ruled that the restrictive asylum policy of Hungary was in conflict with European legislation. The migrant crisis of 2015 was no excuse not to comply with this legislation. The laws in Hungary made it practically impossible for people to apply for asylum at the Serbian-Hungarian border. People were only allowed to submit asylum applications in one of the two transit zones, but Hungary had drastically limited the number of people who were allowed to enter. In anticipation of their asylum application, people were held in transition camps. The Court of Justice ruled that this could be viewed as detention, whereas there was not enough reason to hold people in such camps.111
Policy and other developments in the Netherlands
More austere reception for Track 2 asylum seekers On 14 September it was announced that asylum seekers with not much chance of an asylum permit will be accommodated in a separate, more austere reception centre. Characteristics of the more austere reception are daily reporting, check on entering and leaving and no living allowance, but goods in kind. Vulnerable groups will not be accommodated in such a reception centre.112
Adjustment of country policy In September 2020 a reassessment took place of safe countries of origin. It emerged from this that the situation in India has deteriorated to such an extent that it will be suspended as a safe country. India will be examined further in the next reassessment. Togo was already suspended in the last reassessment as a safe country of origin and has been dropped this time as a safe country of origin. In the reassessment of safe countries some exceptions were also mentioned. Their asylum applications will be processed in Track 4 instead of Track 2.113
On 18 November a report was made of the country policy with respect to Azerbaijan. It can be gathered from the official country report of 2 July 2020 that little has changed in the safety/security situation compared to the official country report from November 2013.114 The country policy for certain groups does need to be adjusted or updated.115
Reassessment of Ugandan asylum applications It was announced on 4 November 2020 that an investigation by the IND has shown that residence permits were possible wrongly issued to Ugandan asylum seekers who presumably relied under false pretences on an LGBTI motive. As a result of this investigation, the IND has examined which possibilities there are to revoke a permit in the screened cases.116 It became clear in this examination which characteristics of an application give cause for alertness. In the decision-
108 ABC News (November 20, 2020)- Spain in diplomatic push over migrant flow to Canary Islands 109 Bladna (3 January 2021) – Canarische Eilanden: repatriering van honderden Marokkaanse migranten; Yabiladi (15 January 2021) – Morocco s RAM to deport migrants in Canary Islands 110 Ansamed (23 December 2020), Migrants: Bosnia, Bira camp in Bihac opens temporarily 111 Deutsche Welle (17 December 2020), Hungary asylum policies “failed” to fulfil EU obligations 112 Letter to the Dutch House of Representatives (14 September 2020), reference 3023881 113 Letter from the State Secretary for Justice and Security, 2020-2021, 19637, no. 2664 114 Letter to the Dutch House of Representatives (18 November 2020), reference 3019810 115 Letter to the Dutch House of Representatives (18 November 2020), reference 3019810 116 Letter to the Dutch House of Representatives (4 November 2020), Various subjects LGBTI in migration policy
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making practice of the IND, these insights are included in the assessment of the credibility of LGBTI applications by Ugandan asylum seekers117.
Cooperation between Greece and the Netherlands Further to the offer by the Netherlands to take over 100 vulnerable refugees after the fire on Moria, the first 25 refugees arrived from Greece on 18 December 2020. In the days afterwards, 24 more refugees arrived in the Netherlands. In addition, the second Greek-Dutch reception centre for UAMs was occupied in December.118
117 idem 118 Letter to the Dutch House of Representatives (18 December 2020), reference 3118300
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