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Eb068b Maldon District Economic Prosperity Strategy Evidence Base

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Eb068b Maldon District Economic Prosperity Strategy Evidence Base EB068b Economic Prosperity Strategy 2013-2029 Introduction Evidence Base This document sets out evidence behind the Maldon District Council District Economic Profile Economic Prosperity Strategy 2013- 2029. Maldon is a rural district situated along the Essex Coast. It has a diverse Unless stated otherwise, the economic profile; there are strengths in knowledge based production information set out in this document and professional/business services, and a resilient retail sector is based on independent reports. particularly in Maldon town. The leisure sector has expanded, and parts of the District are able to benefit from tourism. There are 23,900 jobs within the District, with predominant employment sectors being; manufacturing, public administration, retail, professional and business services, construction, and, accommodation and food services. Geography and Infrastructure Located close to the A12, 45miles from London and near the city of Chelmsford many parts of the Maldon District are particularly prosperous. A branch train line runs through the south of the District connecting the economy to London via Liverpool Street Station. Other parts of the District are rural in character, with restricted road access and more limited transport options. Demographics Maldon District has an aging population demographic. This will create opportunities in the healthcare and care sectors, but may reduce the size of the working population. Economic Governance Maldon District Council shares responsibility for economic development with Essex County Council and the South East Local Enterprise Partnership. The Council sits in a range of other partnerships pertinent to economic growth including; sub-regional partnerships (Haven Gateway and Heart of Essex) and collaborates with business organisations such as the Essex Chamber of Commerce, Federation of Small Businesses (FSB), Think Local (Maldon District) Ltd, Maldon Business Association, Burnham Chamber of Trade and Commerce and others. Given this varied landscape it is essential that partners coordinate closely to maximise the impact on the local economy. 1 EB068b 1. Introduction i. In 2012 Maldon District Council undertook to review its support for the local economy and committed to developing an Economic Prosperity Strategy to map a route to future economic growth. ii. The Maldon District Economic Prosperity Strategy is a suite of three documents; 1. The Economic Prosperity Strategy is a public facing document that sets out the high level vision for supporting economic growth in the District and aligns with the objectives of the Local Development Plan 2. The Implementation Plan, runs for three years before being reviewed and replaced. These plans will contain greater detail regarding the timescales, costs, risks etc for the delivery of projects and interventions set out in the Strategy. 3. This Evidence Base Report summarises the independent evidence upon which the Economic Prosperity Strategy is based, and makes a detailed assessment of the local economy. In addition, this Evidence Base Report contains a detailed evaluation of economic growth forecasts which are used to establish a jobs growth target and provide a guideline for future employment land requirements. iii. The report is divided into the following sections: 1) Introduction 2) Policy and Evidence Base; Literature Review 3) Drivers of Change in a Global Economy 4) Maldon District Local Economic Overview: • Key Facts and Figures • Key Sector; Employment • Key Sectors; Output (GVA) • New Business Growth • Skills • Economic Geography • Strategic Transport Infrastructure Development • Demographics and Change • Land Supply 5) Comparing the District: • Heart of Essex; Authorities Compared • Conditions for Growth; Assessing Maldon District As a Location for Economic Development 6) Future Growth Scenarios: • Assessing Future Employment Growth Scenarios • Establishing an employment growth target • Adapting sector forecasts to reflect the jobs target • Translating sector targets into employment land requirements 7) Conclusions and Recommendations 8) Appendices 2 EB068b 2. Policy and Evidence Base; Literature Review 2.1 A number of policy documents and independent reports were examined to support the development of the Economic Prosperity Strategy. The key documents are summarised below: 2.2 Heart of Essex Economic Futures (2012) 2.3 This report assesses the past and projected future economic performance of local authority areas within the Heart of Essex sub-region. 2.4 The study uses data extracted from the ‘Experian Megafile’, which expands upon ONS data by modelling additional data for non-VAT registered businesses. As such, this data suggests there are 4,300 businesses in the Maldon District, a figure significantly higher than the ONS data which records 2,900 VAT registered firms. 2.5 The Heart of Essex report provides an analysis of the relationship between demographic forecasts, projected housing growth, and the corresponding outcomes of workforce size and economic growth. For Maldon District, the report analyses two possible future scenarios; Dwelling Constrained and Sector Derived. Using the same model an additional scenario was commissioned at a later date. The assumptions and outcomes of the scenarios are summarised below; 2.6 Dwelling Constrained Scenario – which takes Experian’s baseline projection for economic growth in the Maldon District and assumes that the number of future new dwellings constructed a year (200) falls short of the number needed to maintain a workforce (i.e. working age population) which is the same size as in 2012. This scenario forecasts a long-term decline in employment levels (-400) from 2012-2031, with a modest gain in economic output. 2.7 Sector Derived New Nuclear Scenario – treats the dwelling constrained scenario as the baseline, but assumes that significant interventions and investment to support key sectors, and the construction of a new nuclear power station at Bradwell will result in 2,600 net additional jobs being created by 2029. 2.8 Additional Sector Derived No New Nuclear Scenario – using the dwelling constrained scenario as the baseline, Maldon District Council commissioned Experian to run a further growth scenario. This scenario assumes the same level of interventions in key sectors as the Sector Derived Scenario, but removes the assumption that a new nuclear power station will be built at Bradwell and withdraws the corresponding multiplier effects. This assumes a growth of 1,200 net additional jobs by 2029. 2.9 Essex Economic Growth Strategy (2012) 2.10 The Essex Economic Growth Strategy (EGS) outlines Essex County Council’s vision for supporting economic growth in Essex. Formally adopted by Essex County Council and being implemented from the 2013-2014 financial year, the EGS indicates that the County Council will concentrate on developing economic productivity, prosperity, innovation and employment growth. 2.11 The EGS provides an appraisal of Essex’s role within the changing global economy and sets out an ambition “to make Essex the location of choice for business”, based on its proximity to London and transport links. The EGS will prioritise support for 4 key sectors projected to have significant potential for growth; ports and logistics, advanced manufacturing, renewable energy and health/care. 2.12 The EGS proposes four themes upon which interventions will concentrate. These are: 1) enterprise and innovation, 2) education, skills and employability, 3) infrastructure and 4) locations for growth. 3 EB068b 2.13 Of particular note is the ‘locations for growth’ theme. This theme suggests that Essex County Council will prioritise support for infrastructure development in major urban locations. As a rural District, Maldon is not considered a location for growth in the EGS. 2.14 Greater Essex Integrated County Strategy (2010) 2.15 This policy document underpins an initiative to coordinate and articulate infrastructure priorities across the local authorities in Greater Essex. As with the Essex Growth Strategy, the Integrated County Strategy (ICS) supports the policy of concentrating resources on economic growth in those parts of Essex which it would deliver the greatest economic impact. 2.16 Supporting the ICS is an Essex wide economic infrastructure delivery plan. Through this plan authorities prioritise and agree which infrastructure projects they will pursue. It is vital that projects within the Economic Prosperity Strategy (as well as applicable infrastructure priorities in the LDP) are aligned with those listed on the ICS infrastructure delivery plan, as this plan is increasingly viewed as the gateway to funding and finance to support infrastructure delivery. 2.17 Maldon District Rural Gap Analysis (2010) 2.18 This report examines the local rural economy, identifying weaknesses and future opportunities for the Maldon District. It argues that many agricultural businesses in the District are at risk from fluctuating food prices and climate change, and related problems such as disease outbreak. The report notes that many agricultural businesses are suffering from restricted access to finance and may face significant challenges relating to changes to the Common Agricultural Policy (CAP). The study goes on to note that small, tenant farmers are particularly vulnerable. 2.19 The study recognises that many agri-businesses are looking to diversify their operations. Indeed, some 70 per cent of the farms in Essex have already diversified. Some existing diversification projects in Maldon District
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