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100% RENEWABLE ENERGY for TANZANIA Access to Renewable Energy for All Within One Generation Prepared For: Bread for the World

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100% RENEWABLE ENERGY for TANZANIA Access to Renewable Energy for All Within One Generation Prepared For: Bread for the World 100% RENEWABLE ENERGY FOR TANZANIA Access to renewable energy for all within one generation Prepared for: Bread for the World 2017 100% RENEWABLE ENERGY FOR TANZANIA ABOUT THE AUTHORS The Institute for Sustainable Futures (ISF) was established by the University of Technology Sydney in 1996 to work with industry, government and the community to develop sustainable futures through research and consultancy. Our mission is to create change toward sustainable futures that protect and enhance the environment, human well-being and social equity. We seek to adopt an inter-disciplinary approach to our work and engage our partner organisations in a collaborative process that emphasises strategic decision-making. For further information visit: www.isf.uts.edu.au Research team: Dr. Sven Teske, Tom Morris, Kritih Nagrath COOPERATION PARTNER This project has been conducted in cooperation with Dr. Joachim Fuenfgelt of Bread for the World (BftW) Caroline-Michaelis-Str. 1, 10115 Berlin, Germany, Anna Leidreiter of World Future Council (WFC), Lilienstr. 5-9, 20095 Hamburg, Germany and Climate Action Network (CAN) Tanzania, Sixbert Mwanga. The energy scenario software for the long-term projections and economic parameters has been developed by the German Aerospace Centre (DLR), Institute for Technical Thermodynamics, Pfaffenwaldring 38-40, 70569 Stuttgart/Germany and applied to over 100 energy scenario simulations for global, regional and national energy analysis. CITATION Teske, S., Morris, T., Nagrath, Kriti (2017) 100% Renewable Energy for Tanzania – Access to renewable and affordable energy for all within one generation. Report prepared by ISF for Bread for the World, October 2017. ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS The authors gratefully acknowledge data and advice contributed by September 2017. All conclusions and any errors that remain are the authors own. DISCLAIMER The authors have used all due care and skill to ensure the material is accurate as at the date of this report. UTS and the authors do not accept any responsibility for any loss that may arise by anyone relying upon its contents. INSTITUTE FOR SUSTAINABLE FUTURES University of Technology Sydney PO Box 123 Broadway NSW 2007 AUSTRALIA www.isf.edu.au © UTS October 2017 2 100% RENEWABLE ENERGY FOR TANZANIA TABLE OF CONTENTS 1 INTRODUCTION and scope of Work ............................................................................................................................................................. 6 2 Key Results ..................................................................................................................................................................................................... 7 3 Global energy context .................................................................................................................................................................................. 12 3.1 Access to energy – 7th Sustainable Development Goal............................................................................................................... 12 3.2 Energy access planning for developing countries ....................................................................................................................... 13 3.3 The role of scenarios in energy policies....................................................................................................................................... 16 4 Methodology and Assumptions .................................................................................................................................................................. 17 4.1 Modelling overview ....................................................................................................................................................................... 17 4.2 [R]E 24/7 - GIS mapping tool ....................................................................................................................................................... 18 4.3 [R]E 24/7 – energy access model ................................................................................................................................................ 20 4.3.1 Energy demand projection and load curve calculation ................................................................................................................ 20 4.3.2 Energy cluster concept ................................................................................................................................................................. 23 4.3.3 Load distrubtion by energy cluster ............................................................................................................................................... 24 4.3.4 The [R]E24/7 dispatch module ..................................................................................................................................................... 24 4.4 Long-term scenario modelling ...................................................................................................................................................... 26 5 Scenario assumptions ................................................................................................................................................................................. 27 5.1 Tanzania ccountry overview ......................................................................................................................................................... 27 5.1.1 Political context ............................................................................................................................................................................ 27 5.1.2 Population development ............................................................................................................................................................... 29 5.1.3 Economic context ......................................................................................................................................................................... 29 5.1.4 Social context ............................................................................................................................................................................... 30 5.1.5 Energy context ............................................................................................................................................................................. 31 5.1.6 ENERGY ACCESS SCENARIO .................................................................................................................................................. 34 5.1.7 Fuel price projections ................................................................................................................................................................... 37 5.1.8 Cost projections for investment, operation and maintenance costs ............................................................................................ 38 5.1.9 Assumptions for hydrogen and synfuel production ...................................................................................................................... 39 5.1.10 Renewable energy potential ......................................................................................................................................................... 39 5.2 Tanzania – assumptions by region .............................................................................................................................................. 42 5.3. Overview – long term scenario ...................................................................................................................................................... 47 5.3.1 The REFERENCE scenario ......................................................................................................................................................... 48 5.3.2 Assumptions for both renewable scenarios ................................................................................................................................. 48 5.3.3 The RENEWABLES scenario ...................................................................................................................................................... 49 5.3.4 The ADVANCED RENEWABLES scenario ................................................................................................................................. 49 6 Results ........................................................................................................................................................................................................... 51 6.1 Long-term scenario ...................................................................................................................................................................... 51 6.1.1 Tanzania final energy demand ..................................................................................................................................................... 51 6.1.2 Electricity generation .................................................................................................................................................................... 54 6.1.3 Energy supply for heating ............................................................................................................................................................ 58 6.1.4 Transport .....................................................................................................................................................................................
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