EATING OUR WAY out of the CLIMATE CRISIS How Rethinking Our Food Systems Can Balance the Biosphere

EATING OUR WAY OUT OF THE CLIMATE CRISIS How Rethinking Our Food Systems Can Balance the Biosphere

INTRODUCTION...... 3 PAYING THE REAL PRICE OF FOOD ...... 4 Toward true cost accounting SIMULATING THE FOODSCAPE ...... 12 Toward modeled environments

AMPLIFYING FOOD INFLUENCERS ...... 21 Toward a new breed of plant-based tastemakers

DISCOVERING SOIL AS THE SECRET INGREDIENT ...... 29 Toward more delicious food from healthier dirt

CLIMATE-PROOFING CULINARY TRADITIONS ...... 37 Toward resilient food cultures

ENDNOTES ...... 45 z © 2019 Institute for the Future. All rights reserved. SR-2090 | www.iftf.org 2 “No matter how out-of- control the climate system seems—with its roiling typhoons, unprecedented famines and heat waves, INTRODUCTION refugee crises and climate

Our climate crisis poses an urgent and all-encompassing existential challenge to Agriculture's pressure on the critical conflicts—we are all its life as we know it. Food systems are at the fore of this global dilemma. We can limits of our biosphere are often authors. And still writing.” eat our way into climate catastrophe, or we can eat our way out of it. overlooked or underappreciated in the media and pushed to the backstage at 6 The food we grow, harvest, process, distribute, and eat is intimately linked with — David Wallace Wells global climate events. Of the 4,500+ our environment. On one hand, according to the Intergovernmental Panel on climate change articles published in Climate Change, nearly a quarter of global greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions 16 leading US newspapers from 2005 to 2008, only 2.4% mentioned food or agriculture as come from the agriculture sector and resulting land use.1 On the other hand, contributors to climate change and only 0.4% were substantially focused on the issue.4 droughts and floods severely impact farmers and their land. Temperature Recent analysis found that the global climate change conference COP24 served a meat- changes affect crop growth and reproduction cycles, and new research suggests heavy menu that could have produced over 4,000 metric tons of greenhouse gases.5 global warming causes key crops to produce more carbohydrates that can crowd out the production of nutrients. Meanwhile, many pests and weeds thrive in Given their impact on our individual and planetary health, food systems will take center hotter and wetter conditions, making agricultural production all the more stage of the global climate change discourse. Governments will begin adopting new challenging and potentially more resource intensive. subsidies and tax structures that build truly resilient agricultural industries, while advanced simulation software will enable anyone to model foodscapes for insights about what to And it’s getting worse. The World Resources Institute has looked at the grow, package, or consume. Individuals across the entire supply chain will be held projected population growth across the globe and the anticipated shift toward accountable for the true cost of their practices, diverse food influencers will reshape what is higher-meat diets to find that “agriculture alone could account for the majority considered edible, and new ingredients like soil will be in-demand. While climate disrupts of the emissions budget for limiting global warming below 2°C” in 2050.2 social and political communities, culinary traditions will evolve to maintain cultural identities Additionally, the FAO’s “Status of the World’s Soil Resources” sums up our across space and time. present soil situation: “Soils are fundamental to life on Earth but human pressures on soil resources are reaching critical limits.”3 Food will no longer be seen as a problem for our climate future, but instead, as a delicious and resilient solution ripe for harvest. z © 2019 Institute for the Future. All rights reserved. SR-2090 | www.iftf.org 3 PAYING THE REAL PRICE OF FOOD Toward true cost accounting

z © 2019 Institute for the Future. All rights reserved. SR-2090 | www.iftf.org 4 “Although food appears never to have been cheaper, when we look beneath the surface, we PAYING THE REAL are actually paying far more for it than we might PRICE OF FOOD possibly imagine.” —Sustainable Food Trust8 Toward true cost accounting The food on our plates costs the world a lot more than we paid for it at the grocery farmers, policy makers, food companies, and eaters with a deeper understanding of cash register or restaurant counter. As Food Tank points out, “Many consumers would the real costs and benefits that our food systems afford. not recognize the link between buying a cheap chicken for their roast dinner and the Our farm laborers, our healthcare system, and even our farmed animals have conditions of workers in chicken processing factories (which were recently highlighted historically absorbed the hidden cost of food production. True cost accounting in an Oxfam report), or the environmental impact of chicken feed production, or the metrics will push costs back onto producers and consumers, but its largest effect will increasing prevalence of antibiotic resistance, some of which is associated with the be felt by the environment. By leveraging datasets that measure the ecosystem high use of antibiotics in chicken sheds.”7 Trying to monetize those true costs and services of farmland, third-party sustainability metrics, and aggregated lifecycle incorporate them into decision making is currently impractical because the necessary analyses of food products, we will be able to materially measure the costs that our data simply isn’t available. production processes and consumption habits have on our biosphere. Over the coming decade, the true cost of food production, distribution, Through new taxation structures, product labels, and data visualization software, manufacturing, and shopping will become internalized into the operating costs of farmers, eaters, and everyone in between will be able to fully understand—and have business and the retail costs of food products. Advances in the digitization of supply to pay for—the true costs of the foods we know and love. Once true costs are chains from farms to stomachs will provide necessary data for life cycle analyses, apparent and internalized across our food system, our actions around food and our consumer-facing third-party certifications, and sustainability regulations, providing values around climate mitigation will finally align. z © 2019 Institute for the Future. All rights reserved. SR-2090 | www.iftf.org 5 SIGNAL

WHAT SO WHAT Research published in Nature Sustainability modeled Researchers are beginning to measure the footprints Accounting for the impact that corn production has on air pollution that food systems have not just on GHG emissions and its resulting human health impacts. Researchers but also on a long list of other environmental impacts entire systems found that “reduced air quality resulting from maize like air and water pollution to get an entire systems- production is associated with 4,300 premature deaths level view. annually in the United States, with estimated damages in monetary terms of US$39 billion.” Ammonia from fertilizer is the worst source of corn’s air pollution.9 Peters - Glenn Glenn Carstens z © 2019 Institute for the Future. All rights reserved. SR-2090 | www.iftf.org 6 SIGNAL

WHAT SO WHAT The Natural Capital Project is a global collaboration Publicly-available and easily-accessible databases Measuring that builds free and open-source tools to enable long- will create the necessary infrastructure for everyone term and strategic decisions to be made about and anyone to make systems-level decisions about ecosystem society that take into account the impact that the life-cycle impacts of food production, distribution, services ecosystem services provide.10 and consumption. David Clode Clode David z © 2019 Institute for the Future. All rights reserved. SR-2090 | www.iftf.org 7 SIGNAL

WHAT SO WHAT As part of its goal to be climate-neutral by 2050, The While the environmental impact of a food product is Labeling the Danish Ministry of Energy, Utilities, and Climate has often invisible, labels can help educate and nudge announced a plan to label all food products with their consumers toward more climate-friendly purchases. climate impact carbon footprints so that consumers can make more of food informed, climate-friendly purchasing decisions.11 Joseph Poore thein Joseph Guardian z © 2019 Institute for the Future. All rights reserved. SR-2090 | www.iftf.org 8 SIGNAL

WHAT SO WHAT Research from the Oxford Martin Programme on the If neither producers nor retailers internalize the Taxing food Future of Food found that a meat tax “would reduce environmental costs of their products, researchers global greenhouse gas emissions by over one and governments are actively exploring tax structures externalities hundred million tonnes, mainly due to lower beef that could reduce GHG emissions from food. consumption.”12 Lukas Budimaier Lukas Budimaier z © 2019 Institute for the Future. All rights reserved. SR-2090 | www.iftf.org 9 SIGNAL

WHAT SO WHAT HowGood is a platform that tracks over 125 Sustainable products create sustainable businesses. Sustaining sustainability metrics from over 350 independent HowGood has found that a subset of 5,000 of their sources for more than 1 million products so that most sustainable products sell 20-180% better than business through retailers can source better and consumers can the less sustainable counterparts. transparency purchase more sustainably.13 HowGood z © 2019 Institute for the Future. All rights reserved. SR-2090 | www.iftf.org 10 SIGNAL

WHAT SO WHAT The Sustainable Food Policy Alliance, comprised of Global Consumer Packaged Goods (CPG) companies Creating climate Danone North America; Mars, Incorporated; Nestlé are taking steps for their own companies and for USA, and Unilever United States, has released a policy makers in their markets to build a food system policy principles series of climate policy principles that include the that reflects and internalizes carbon footprints. establishment of a carbon pricing system that “sends a clear signal to the marketplace to reduce economy- wide GHG emissions.”14 Nico Meier z © 2019 Institute for the Future. All rights reserved. SR-2090 | www.iftf.org 11 SIMULATING THE FOODSCAPE Toward modeled environments

z © 2019 Institute for the Future. All rights reserved. SR-2090 | www.iftf.org 12 “Identifying and modeling the intrinsic properties of the food system [...] will help organizations and governmental SIMULATING THE institutions to track progress towards FOODSCAPE sustainability.” —Thomas Allen & Paolo Prosperi, agricultural researchers15 Toward modeled environments One of the biggest challenges in building truly resilient and regenerative imagery will combine to create a dynamic map of food production. Our ability to foodscapes is that we lack a systems-level model of the complex interactions that simulate whole plant growth and on-farm growing systems in computer models will occur from soil to stomachs, and every step in-between. Decisions that we make accelerate and be paired with advanced weather projections to inform what should about food consumption, farming practices, policy design, and product be grown where and when. We will test and learn with great precision before development are all made with limited information about their true impact on the implementing anything. food system as a whole. With such a limited perspective, we are forced to navigate With such holistic models, policy makers, food companies, and eaters will simulate unintended consequences from our actions after they emerge and we overlook possible decisions they are faced with making—about where to deploy an inspector, potential opportunities to mitigate climate impacts because we have no way of how to design more sustainable supply chains, or which climate-friendly ingredients seeing them. should be incorporated into a diet. The models will provide data-driven insights Over the next decade, computational modeling platforms that draw from distributed about climate-positive decisions. We will also see real-world spillover effects as and open databases will converge with ambient sensing technologies embedded in individuals change their own behavior by running these simulations themselves, homes, farms, manufacturing facilities, and retail to create the necessary conditions since the process of modeling itself can change how one acts. for modeling foodscapes. Machine learning systems and high-resolution satellite z 13 © 2019 Institute for the Future. All rights reserved. SR-2090 | www.iftf.org SIGNAL

WHAT SO WHAT The Foundation for Food and Agriculture Research Research and development to drive climate-smart Growing crops (FFAR) has given a $5 million grant to researchers at crops, which will have complex interactions with their the Institute for Sustainability, Energy, and changing ecosystems, can be accelerated by the in silico Environment at the University of Illinois at Urbana- computational ability to create digital twins of whole Champaign to continue their work building a plants rapidly “grown” in models as opposed to slow computational platform that provides a virtual model growth in soil. of whole plant growth. The simulation incorporates multiple models ranging in scale from cells to ecosystems.16 Crops in silicoCrops in Project z © 2019 Institute for the Future. All rights reserved. SR-2090 | www.iftf.org 14 SIGNAL

WHAT SO WHAT The MIT Open Ag Initiative has applied its machine As we gain deeper insights into the specific “climate Designing food learning model for indoor farming to a specific goal: recipes” of different crops, we will be able to control increase the concentration of flavor-producing conditions to maximize climate resilience and with flavor-cyber- molecules in basil. Through controlling numerous sustainability—reducing waste while maximizing yield growing variables in a contained environment—light, of delicious food with minimal inputs. agriculture water, nutrients, temperature, and other climate variables—these growing systems can optimize beyond yield for values like deliciousness.17 Tech Crunch z © 2019 Institute for the Future. All rights reserved. SR-2090 | www.iftf.org 15 SIGNAL

WHAT SO WHAT Hershey’s is using satellites to map 50,000 cocoa High-resolution satellite imagery of entire supply Mapping West farms that are part of its supply chain in West Africa in chains will enable large food companies to make order to gain insights into how it can best protect more data-informed decisions on how to achieve their Africa’s cocoa forests by increasing agroforestry and strategically sustainability goals. This imagery is also critical input distributing 2.5 million high-yield cocoa seedlings.18 for any model that simulates the upstream impacts of farms a company’s decisions. Satelligenceand Ghanian GIS experts z © 2019 Institute for the Future. All rights reserved. SR-2090 | www.iftf.org 16 SIGNAL

WHAT SO WHAT Ecosystems comprised of trees survive and thrive Ecosystem mapping will increasingly incorporate Building the with crucial help from microbial systems that deliver interactions at multiple scales, from the micro to the nutrients between the soil and plant roots. Such an macro, in order to understand and simulate potential “Wood Wide Web” interconnected and symbiotic web of organisms has changes in those models. Soil is critical for been mapped for the first time on a global scale using agricultural production, and the microbes in our soil over 28,000 species of trees in over 70 countries.19 will need to be included in our models as much as the crops those microbes support. Unsplash z © 2019 Institute for the Future. All rights reserved. SR-2090 | www.iftf.org 17 SIGNAL

WHAT SO WHAT Kroger and Walmart are installing cameras throughout Modeling impacts of food systems and climate will Spreading in-store select stores. Kroger has embedded discreet cameras involve not only agricultural production but also food with facial recognition software in price displays on retail environments. As retail outlets become digitized surveillance shelves to identify the age and gender of shoppers. and imbued with ambient monitoring systems, we’ll Walmart has high-resolution cameras to monitor their have larger and larger datasets about food systems produce before it becomes overly ripe or bruised.20 purchasing to use in our simulations. The Associated Press z © 2019 Institute for the Future. All rights reserved. SR-2090 | www.iftf.org 18 SIGNAL

WHAT SO WHAT Concentrated Animal Feeding Operations, as defined by An accurate and efficient map of industrial animal Teaching the US Department of Agriculture, are animal feeding feeding operations will help regulators assess each operations housing 1,000 or more animals for at least farm’s environmental risk. As climate-induced computers to 45 days per year. No one knows how many CAFOs exist. extreme weather events become more frequent, these We do know they place an extensive burden on the risk assessments will be essential in ensuring a safer find risky farms environment. Two Stanford University professors used and more environmentally-friendly future of food. machine learning to analyze USDA satellite imagery and identify CAFOs in North Carolina. They found 15% more poultry CAFOs than manual surveys had mapped.21

Swine Poultry Original Image Modeled Image Original Image Modeled Image National Agriculture Imagery Program/USDA z © 2019 Institute for the Future. All rights reserved. SR-2090 | www.iftf.org 19 SIGNAL

WHAT SO WHAT Researchers at Drexel University have created a brain Simulations and games can be used to impact Creating positive training game called DietDash during which players real-world behavior. As more of our foodscapes navigate a grocery store aisles and try to avoid sugary are modeled and advanced simulations are run by spillover effects food. Overweight players lose an average of 3.1% of companies, researchers, and eaters, we’ll have their body weight after eight weeks of game play.22 real-world spillover effects that help create our from simulations preferred futures. Evan Forman, Drexel UniversityDrexelEvan Forman, z © 2019 Institute for the Future. All rights reserved. SR-2090 | www.iftf.org 20 AMPLIFYING FOOD INFLUENCERS Toward a new breed of plant-based tastemakers

z © 2019 Institute for the Future. All rights reserved. SR-2090 | www.iftf.org 21 “Disagreements about the impacts of meat consumption on the environment and health are less likely to be ‘settled’ by science because they are becoming AMPLIFYING FOOD wrapped up in people’s cultural values INFLUENCERS and tribe identities.” —Jayson Lusk25

Toward a new breed of plant-based tastemakers Carnism—“the invisible belief system, or ideology, that conditions people to eat certain Although reducing meat consumption may be an effective form of climate action, those animals”—has long been challenged by eaters and activists for environmental, health, taking a market-based approach are staying away from talking about that, knowing that and ethical reasons.23 Now, the movement is gaining momentum thanks to support it’s a politically polarizing issue. Instead they may rely on health data, such as the World from some unlikely suspects. Pro-athletes, large incumbent meat companies, immigrant Health Organization’s (WHO) classification of processed meat as a type 1 carcinogen or chefs, and social media celebrities are all blurring traditional assumptions about who the finding that plants contain all 20 dietary amino acids, and thus can comprise a promotes plant-based diets. complete diet. And still, we know that science doesn’t ultimately sway behavior. Instead, the decision to eat meat or refrain will be driven by identity politics. As communities, The global alternative meat market is expected to grow by 1,000% over the next corporations, or even entire countries adopt meat-free identities, boycott businesses 24 decade, reaching $140 billion and taking 10% of the global meat industry. These that serve meat, or publicly shame people who choose to eat it, the political divides will market projections will turn out to only represent the tip of the iceberg for a massively become even more entrenched. disruptive alternative meat industry driven primarily by environmental concerns. The rapid, global transition away from carnism will be accelerated by recent improvements The social influencers who are able to cross party lines will hold the key to influencing in the taste, texture, and price of plant-based and cultured meat analogues, as well as food behavior change, and act as Trojan horses for introducing consideration of a expensive marketing campaigns from venture-funded companies seeking to cash in on climate-friendly diet to new audiences. The battle over whether or not we deem meat a new market. edible will focus on redefining traditional notions of masculinity, socioeconomic status, or liberal environmentalism. The winning ideologies are going to be the ones that understand how to communicate effectively in an extremely polarized environment. z © 2019 Institute for the Future. All rights reserved. SR-2090 | www.iftf.org 22 SIGNAL

WHAT SO WHAT Food and Agriculture economist Jayson Lusk’s Understanding the identity politics behind eating meat Growing political longitudinal Food Demand Survey has found that in is going to be the most essential component of America, beef demand is higher for conservative designing any behavior change campaign. Increased polarization Republicans than liberal Democrats and that polarization may force more companies into needing of meat polarization is increasing over time. 25 to take a stand on the issue. Jayson Lusk Jayson z © 2019 Institute for the Future. All rights reserved. SR-2090 | www.iftf.org 23 SIGNAL

WHAT SO WHAT Beyond Meat’s “Go Beyond” campaign features pro The campaign challenges the cultural assumption that Challenging athletes like Shaq, Kyrie Irving, Alex Honnold, and eating meat is a sign of masculinity and strength as well Shaun White promoting the plant-based burger as as debunks myths about protein consumption (the the masculinity fuel for their performance.26 average American eats almost twice the daily recommended amount)—with the hope that shifting this of meat perspective can spur sales of plant-based products. Beyond Meat z © 2019 Institute for the Future. All rights reserved. SR-2090 | www.iftf.org 24 SIGNAL

WHAT SO WHAT Erick Castro’s popular Instagram shares recipes and Cultural influencers like Castro help shift the perception How to be vegan restaurants for inexpensive, delicious vegan foods in of veganism away from an elitist, affluent, white trend New York City, especially for audiences whose and embrace and celebrate a deep history of plant- in the hood primary food choices are fast food restaurants and based eating in African American and Latino culture. convenience store bodegas.27 Instagram z © 2019 Institute for the Future. All rights reserved. SR-2090 | www.iftf.org 25 SIGNAL

WHAT SO WHAT Aileen Suzara, owner of Sariwa restaurant in San By tapping into ancestral knowledge of ingredients, Overturning Francisco, CA, serves plant-forward Filipino dishes to she is decolonizing definitions of Filipino food. challenge assumptions that fried, meat heavy dishes Discovering culturally appropriate ways to celebrate traditional diet are “traditional” and that giving them up would mean food stories that promote healthier eating will be a losing culture.28 key enabler that encourages people to shift away assumptions from once beloved foods (such as Spam, in Aileen’s case) that are contributing to chronic disease. Peter Prato z © 2019 Institute for the Future. All rights reserved. SR-2090 | www.iftf.org 26 SIGNAL

WHAT SO WHAT In 2017, the German Minister of the Environment The decision was met with great resistance in the German Barbara Hicks enacted a policy to ban meat and fish land of bratwurst, and points to the ongoing power from being served at official government functions. struggles over cultural norms for what’s on the menu government takes Hicks describes it as an important way to be credible and how that relates to climate concerns. meat off the table and exemplary in their climate actions.29 Sean Gallup/Getty Sean z © 2019 Institute for the Future. All rights reserved. SR-2090 | www.iftf.org 27 SIGNAL

WHAT SO WHAT None of the US military’s meals ready to eat (MREs) Rising rates of obesity are making it harder for the Soldiers fight for are fully plant-based. Growing numbers of soldiers military to find combat-ready soldiers, making a shift are putting pressure on the Defense Logistics Agency toward healthier diets a national security priority. vegan food to provide healthy, balanced, vegan meals, which are Some soldiers describe their switch to veganism as a less expensive and will keep them fit for combat.30 desire to reduce violence in their personal life because it’s so prevalent in their work. Sonny Ross for Guardian US US for Guardian Ross Sonny z © 2019 Institute for the Future. All rights reserved. SR-2090 | www.iftf.org 28 DISCOVERING SOIL AS THE SECRET INGREDIENT Toward more delicious food from healthier dirt

z © 2019 Institute for the Future. All rights reserved. SR-2090 | www.iftf.org 29 “Soil is key to all survival on planet earth— DISCOVERING SOIL AS 95 percent of food directly or indirectly THE SECRET INGREDIENT relies on it.” —Tina Owens31

Toward more delicious food from healthier dirt Earth’s soil supports all plant and animal life, absorbs carbon, and filters water. happening through a mix of market and regulatory approaches: making new Increasing soil microbiology can result in hundreds of tons of increased GHG products that support old soil health favorites (like crop rotation), breeding entirely capture per acre—and yet current agricultural and deforestation practices are new perennial varietals, and passing local legislation to finance implementing degrading it at alarming rates. Danielle Gould and Mike Lee, co-founders of these changes. Varietal and Alpha Food Labs, eloquently outline the problem: “CPG products that Farmers have long known that soil is their most important ingredient. By 2030, become wildly successful almost always create monocultures of some kind. A eaters will share that passion. Methods for tracking and communicating about soil reliance on trendy ingredients like yellow peas, almonds, and oats incentivizes health will proliferate, utilizing lightweight and distributed networks of sensors with farmers to only grow those crops, but creates no market for the variety of smart packaging that traces a product’s ingredients back to their soil impacts. additional crops farmers must grow to keep soil healthy and biodiverse.” Brands with good soil practices will add that information to an already crowded However, there’s hope. The convenient truth is that agricultural practices that label. Communities will take pride in their local soil health, and food tourism may nourish the soil also produce more flavorful and nutritious foods, as well as higher, increase in locations with the best practices. Just as “Blue Zones” mapped regions more profitable yields. Leading with a focus on deliciousness, food companies, of the world where people live longer, healthier lives, “Brown Zones” will emerge farmers, and chefs around the world are championing responsible land stewardship as a coveted label that qualifies regions for tax cuts or carbon credits to recognize and creating craveable foods to build a market to support these practices. This is the essential role of soil. z © 2019 Institute for the Future. All rights reserved. SR-2090 | www.iftf.org 30 SIGNAL

WHAT SO WHAT In 2018, Danone North America launched a soil health As America’s largest yogurt producer, and the world’s Private sector initiative that committed US$6 million over 18 months largest Certified B Corporation, Danone North towards promoting regenerative soil practices America recognized the potential for scaled impact support scales amongst farmers who grow feed for cows, and the across their supply chains. Shifting corporate dairy farms where they buy milk.32 incentives to focus on environmental impact can healthy soils break the cycle of short-termism that has led to so much soil degradation in the first place. Gabriel Jimenez z © 2019 Institute for the Future. All rights reserved. SR-2090 | www.iftf.org 31 SIGNAL

WHAT SO WHAT Jungle Project grows breadfruit, a “perennial If soil is the ingredient for which we’re optimizing, Growing for guilds, supercarb” in diverse agroforestry systems in Costa shifting agricultural systems to grow for soil first Rica. These systems grow breadfruit in a “guild”— a optimizes the use of soil nutrients. This requires that not individual permaculture concept of grouping plants together brands create demand for all of the guild’s that benefit each other and the soil—with moringa components in their supply chains, not just one ingredients and cacao.33 popular “superfood.” Jungle Project Jungle z © 2019 Institute for the Future. All rights reserved. SR-2090 | www.iftf.org 32 SIGNAL

WHAT SO WHAT Varietal Crop Crackers are designed around supporting Varietal is bringing superior flavor to well-established, Better soil makes crop rotation, an age-old technique for maintaining soil simple snack categories to get the mass market to health. For one of their cracker flavors, Dark Northern support regenerative agriculture. One of the ways better snacks spring wheat, Huntsman millet, and Bravo flax are used in they do this is by building a conversation around the the recipe to create demand for sets of crops that make up idea that food that promotes soil health not only a crop rotation. These crops work synergistically to benefits the planet, but benefits taste buds. Building promote healthy and productive soils while sequestering market demand can support farmers to transition atmospheric carbon.34 current monocropped acreage into more diverse mixes to promote soil health. Alpha Food Labs z © 2019 Institute for the Future. All rights reserved. SR-2090 | www.iftf.org 33 SIGNAL

WHAT SO WHAT General Mills’ Cascadian Farms was set to be the first Efforts to implement climate-friendly agriculture may Climate-resilient major brand to launch a product with the soil- be thwarted by climate change along the way. enhancing perennial grain, Kernza. However, bad Looking for innovative funding models can help de- food hampered by weather ruined most of this year’s crop. They instead risk the transition for CPG companies to establish an launched a very limited release of Honey Toasted adequate supply and scale up ingredients that climate disruptions Kernza along with a crowdfunding campaign to sequester carbon and improve soil health. support further research by The Land Institute.35 /Cascadian Farm Farm /Cascadian PRNewsFoto z © 2019 Institute for the Future. All rights reserved. SR-2090 | www.iftf.org 34 SIGNAL

WHAT SO WHAT Farmers Edge, a precision data agriculture company Funding for conservation efforts exists, but is often Automating based in Canada, launched a carbon credit program very laborious for farmers to access. Ag tech that enables producers on their platform to earn companies can help farmers easily quantify, measure, carbon credits carbon offset credits through an existing local and verify conservation results in order to create a Conservation Cropping Protocol.36 robust marketplace that rewards good land for soil health stewardship. Peter Kleinau z © 2019 Institute for the Future. All rights reserved. SR-2090 | www.iftf.org 35 SIGNAL

WHAT SO WHAT Restore California Renewable Restaurants program This partnership between the California Department California introduces allows participating restaurants to add 1% to the of Food and Ag, the California Air Resources Board, check that goes towards California’s Healthy Soil and The Perennial Farming Initiative enables eaters to climate surcharge Program, which funds farmers and ranchers to adopt directly support farmers who want to transition to practices that put more carbon back in the ground.37 methods like no-till or cover cropping, but don’t have at restaurants the capital to support it up front. They estimate that if just 1% of CA restaurants participate it will generate $10 million per year to fund farmers. Perennial Perennial Farming Initiative z © 2019 Institute for the Future. All rights reserved. SR-2090 | www.iftf.org 36 CLIMATE-PROOFING CULINARY TRADITIONS Toward resilient food cultures

z © 2019 Institute for the Future. All rights reserved. SR-2090 | www.iftf.org 37 “The food we eat is not only a quantity of proteins or vitamins, but CLIMATE-PROOFING it is a diversity of foods CULINARY TRADITIONS that forms the basis of our different civilizations." — José Graziano da Silva, FAO Director-General38 Toward resilient food cultures Climate change threatens not only our health and safety, but also our cultures. Some of these foods will be traditional ingredients or forgotten crops. Others will Extreme weather that forces people to flee their homeland, for example, poses a be the result of engineering and scientific breakthroughs, aimed at sequestering very real threat to the longevity of cultural practices. Destruction of architecture carbon or reducing footprints. As we move into an era of new foods and and landmarks wipes away the sense of identity that those things confer. ingredients on the plate in the name of climate action, we’ll see those same foods become gathering points for new cultures. These will be combinatorial cultures Cuisines—just as critical to cultural identity as landscapes or built environments— that arise out of a mix of displaced people seeking to retain their identities, the are similarly under threat. Iconic foods like maple syrup, wine, coffee, and more are need to accept low-footprint foods, and the constraints of resources. This might all at risk of extinction. As communities are uprooted, cultural touchstones are mean indoor vertical tea plantations to enable tea ceremonies in new contexts, or obliterated, and traditional foods disappear, there will be a scrambling of cultural cell cultured seafood for coastal communities that have been pushed inland. signifiers. The cultures of the post-climate-change world will crystalize as a combination of past cultures in new geographies and new foods brought into The companies, climate activists, and agronomists who seek to introduce climate- existence as an outcome of climate action. smart, novel foods will only succeed in doing so when they integrate those foods into this post-change food culture through co-creating recipes with chefs, serving the needs of home cooks, and catering to the palates of eaters. z © 2019 Institute for the Future. All rights reserved. SR-2090 | www.iftf.org 38 SIGNAL

WHAT SO WHAT In April 2019, The American Chestnut Foundation The success of climate action projects will depend in Engineering (TACF) held a kickoff brunch to announce that they part on how people accept them into their everyday had released a genetically-engineered blight-resistant life. Projects like the TACF that tie new cultural resilient cultural chestnut varietal. Of course, the brunch heavily practices (like chestnut brunches) into carbon featured traditional “lost” dishes made from chestnut. sequestration practices may be more successful than heritage Part of the foundation’s mission is to help reforest the practices that don’t incorporate a human element. Eastern US with this silvicultural crop that also happens to sequester carbon at a high rate.39 Cpl. Jessica Quezada Cpl. z © 2019 Institute for the Future. All rights reserved. SR-2090 | www.iftf.org 39 SIGNAL

WHAT SO WHAT While prickly pear cactus has been grown in Northern Markets that are coming under pressure from heat Improving markets Africa for some decades, a Food and Agriculture and drought—or other climate effects—may be able Organization of the United Nations (FAO) publication to be revitalized or even completely transformed by through cultural that drew on input from Mexican experts championed borrowing cultural knowledge and techniques from the culinary versatility of the crop, as well as its extreme places that have already grown accustomed to those heat and drought tolerance. In 2019, farmers in Africa stresses. The keepers of cultural knowledge, like knowledge sharing are able to remain in place growing prickly pear thanks Mexican chefs and farmers, will increasingly find to the increased demand due to the intentional and themselves in possession of extremely timely and directed dissemination of Mexican culinary tradition by relevant solutions, but will oftentimes need a catalyst the FAO report.40 to bring their solutions to scale. Alisa Golovinska z © 2019 Institute for the Future. All rights reserved. SR-2090 | www.iftf.org 40 SIGNAL

WHAT SO WHATSO WHAT Atomo is creating a drink molecularly Companies that create synthetic foods have to rest on the Inventing a new indistinguishable from coffee, but synthesized existing cultural framework in which familiar foods reside. from sustainable ingredients and processes When (and if) the real version of these foods becomes caffeine fix rather than the intensive traditional method of untenable, the mooring of the original cultural practices may farming coffee. 41 be cast away. For example, the obsession over origin that propelled third wave coffee into a global phenomenon simply wouldn’t be a consideration in a world of synthetic coffee. Instead, we’ll see new practices arise: perhaps in this case, a fascination with the molecular composition of coffee, or the ritual of choosing a cup based on its environmental impact. Atomo z © 2019 Institute for the Future. All rights reserved. SR-2090 | www.iftf.org 41 SIGNAL

WHAT SO WHAT In West Africa, Oumar Barou Togola is working with The shift away from environmentally-taxing Reconsidering a local women farmers to grow sustainable alternatives commodity crops will not simply be framed as a to rice, that also happen to be traditional plants that sustainability cost-benefit comparison. It will depend world-wide market by have been supplanted by the invisible hand of global on the acceptance of alternatives as delicious and agribusiness over the past decades. The pilot project interesting as well as sustainable. As the margin for promoting local values has grown rapidly, in large part because it growing crops in non-ideal climates for the sake of encourages a strong local market for rediscovered global commodity markets shrinks, the gap will be beloved foods.42 filled in part by the reintroduction of sustainable and culturally-relevant foods. Karel Gallas/Getty z © 2019 Institute for the Future. All rights reserved. SR-2090 | www.iftf.org 42 SIGNAL

WHAT SO WHAT Scientist Marissa McMahan and chef Ali Waks Adams This type of combinatorial cuisine-building will Borrowing Italian received a grant to develop a green crab-based fish become commonplace and will turn over rapidly in sauce after discovering that ocean environment the coming decades. As species rise and fall in expertise to reinvent change has lead to a dearth of traditional crab availability and sustainability, we will borrow expertise species in the US Northeast. They brought in from a pastiche of cultures to invent new foods that a Vietnamese product Venetian experts to teach local fishermen about the resonate with consumers. species, and won a grant to develop a riff on in the US Vietnamese fish sauce from the unfamiliar crab.43 News Center Maine z © 2019 Institute for the Future. All rights reserved. SR-2090 | www.iftf.org 43 SIGNAL

WHAT SO WHAT Turkey, the principal producer for hazelnuts, has been Crops that are deeply tied to certain geographies, like Transplanting a undergoing unfavorable climates for the crop since 2013. hazelnuts, will undergo rapid and significant Seizing the opportunity to supply the market, plant movements as people seek out the places best suited global crop breeders in the US engineered a type of hazelnut tree to produce them under new conditions. In places that thrives on the east coast, and is resilient to climate where these crops are quickly introduced, chefs, volatility. The breeder says that while most people in the sellers, and value-add businesses will create new US have never tasted fresh hazelnuts; the chefs that he cultural resources to integrate them: recipes, cuisines, has tested will “go crazy for [them].”44 and products. DL - JACLOU z © 2019 Institute for the Future. All rights reserved. SR-2090 | www.iftf.org 44 ENDNOTES

1. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, “Climate 6. David Wallace Wells, The Uninhabitable Earth, 2019, p. 30. 16. http://cropsinsilico.org/. Change 2014: Mitigation of Climate Change,” 2014, available at: https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar5/wg3/. 7. Megan Perry, “The real cost of food,” November 20, 2015, 17. Arielle J. Johnson et al., “Flavor-cyber-agriculture: https://sustainablefoodtrust.org/articles/the-real-cost-of- Optimization of plant metabolites in an open-source control 2. Richard Waite & Daniel Vennard, “Without Changing Diets, food/. environment through surrogate modeling,” PlosONE, April 3, Agriculture Alone Could Produce Enough Emissions to 2019, available at: 8. Sustainable Food Trust, “The true cost of food,” accessed Surpass 1.5°C of Global Warming,” World Resources https://journals.plos.org/plosone/article?id=10.1371/journal. May 24, 2019, https://sustainablefoodtrust.org/key- Institute, October 17, 2018, available at: pone.0213918. https://www.wri.org/blog/2018/10/we-cant-limit-global- issues/true-cost-accounting/. 18. Bowdeya Tweh, “Hershey Outlines New Sustainability Goals warming-15c-without-changing-diets. 9. Jason Hill, et al., 2019, “Air-quality-related health damages at West African Cocoa Farms,” Wall Street Journal, March of maize,” Nature Sustainability, 2, 397–403, 3. Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations and 13, 2019, available at: https://www.nature.com/articles/s41893-019-0261-y. Intergovernmental Technical Panel on Soils, “Status of the https://www.wsj.com/articles/hershey-outlines-new- World’s Soil Resources (SWSR) – Main Report,” 2015, 10. https://naturalcapitalproject.stanford.edu/. sustainability-goals-at-west-african-cocoa-farms- available at: http://www.fao.org/3/a-i5199e.pdf. 11552490045. 11. Danish Ministry of Energy, Utilities and Climate, “Together 4. Roni Neff, Iris Chan, & Katherine Clegg Smith, “Yesterday’s for a greener future,” October 9, 2018, 19. Gabriel Popkin, “‘Wood wide web’—the underground dinner, tomorrow’s weather, today’s news? US newspaper https://en.efkm.dk/news/news-archive/2018/oct/together- network of microbes that connects trees—mapped for first coverage of food system contributions to climate change,” for-a-greener-future/ time,” Science Magazine, May 15, 2019, available at: Public Health Nutrition, 12(7), July 2009, p. 1006-1014, https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2019/05/wood-wide- available at: 12. Marco Springmann et al., “Health-motivated taxes on red web-underground-network-microbes-connects-trees- https://www.cambridge.org/core/journals/public-health- and processed meat: A modelling study on optimal tax levels mapped-first-time. nutrition/article/yesterdays-dinner-tomorrows-weather- and associated health impacts,” PLOS One, November 6, 20. H. Claire Brown, “Walgreens and Kroger are testing cameras todays-news-us-newspaper-coverage-of-food-system- 2018, https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0204139. that can guess your age and gender,” The New Food contributions-to-climate- 13. www.howgood.com. change/26C982EDC3F7E81977F25A111462032A. Economy, April 25, 2019, available at: 14. www.foodpolicyalliance.org/app/uploads/2019/04/sfpa- https://newfoodeconomy.org/walgreens-kroger-testing- 5. Stephanie Feldstein, “Meat-heavy Menu at UN Climate climate-policy-principles-final.pdf. cameras-that-guess-shoppers-age-gender/. Conference Could Contribute 4,000 Metric Tons of Greenhouse Gases,” Center for Biological Diversity, 15. Thomas Allen & Paolo Prosperi, “Modeling Sustainable Food December 2, 2018, available at: Systems,” Environmental Management, 57(5), March 2016, https://www.biologicaldiversity.org/news/press_releases/20 available at: 18/climate-conference-menu-12-02-2018.php. https://www.researchgate.net/publication/296636077_Model ing_Sustainable_Food_Systems. z © 2019 Institute for the Future. All rights reserved. SR-2090 | www.iftf.org 45 ENDNOTES

21. Cassandra Handan-Nader & Daniel E. Ho, “Deep learning to 30. Rachel Krantz, “Green zone: the US soldiers fighting for 38. FAO, “Food diversity expresses cultural heritage and is key map concentrated animal feeding operations,” Nature vegan food,” The Guardian, February 26, 2019, available at: for healthy diets,” November 24, 2018, available at: Sustainability, 2, p. 298–306, 2019, available at: https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2019/feb/26/us- http://www.fao.org/news/story/en/item/1171702/icode/. https://www.nature.com/articles/s41893-019-0246-x. military-vegan-plant-based-food-mres. 39. William Powell, “New genetically engineered American 22. https://drexel.edu/coas/academics/departments- 31. Danielle Gould, “How Danone North America Aims to chestnut will help restore the decimated, iconic tree,” The centers/well-center/research/current-research- Improve Soil Health,” Food+Tech Connect, February 25, American Chestnut Foundation, February 27, 2017, availble projects/dash/. 2019, available at: at: https://www.acf.org/our-community/news/new- https://foodtechconnect.com/2019/02/25/how-danone- genetically-engineered-american-chestnut-will-help-restore- 23. http://www.carnism.org/carnism. north-america-aims-to-improve-soil-health/. decimated-iconic-tree/. 24. Kate Taylor, “3 factors are driving the plant-based 'meat' 32. “Danone North America Puts a Stake in the Ground with 40. Agence France-Presse, “Prickly pears: ‘Humble’ cactus revolution as analysts predict companies like Beyond Meat Commitment to Regenerative Agriculture and Soil Health brings hope to Algeria,” Inquirer.net, February 18, 2019, and Impossible Foods could explode into a $140 billion Research Collaboration with Renowned Research Partners,” available at: https://technology.inquirer.net/83563/prickly- industry,” Business Insider, available at: March 7, 2018, available at: pears-humble-cactus-brings-hope-to-algeria. https://www.businessinsider.com/meat-substitutes- http://www.danonenorthamerica.com/news/regenerative- impossible-foods-beyond-meat-sales-skyrocket-2019-5. 41. Zoe Sayler, “You’ve tried ‘meatless’ sausage, but would you agriculture/. go for ‘beanless’ coffee?,” Grist, February 7, 2019, available 25. Jayson Lusk, “The political polarization of meat demand,” 33. https://www.jungleproject.com/ at: https://grist.org/article/youve-tried-meatless-sausage- April 23, 2019, available at: but-would-you-go-for-beanless-coffee/. http://jaysonlusk.com/blog/2019/4/23/the-political- 34. https://eatvarietal.com polarization-of-meat-demand. 42. Natalie Parletta, “The little-known bush foods about to 35. Eric Schroeder, “Cascadian Farm pulls back on Kernza change the world,” Cosmos, April 17, 2019, available at: 26. https://www.beyondmeat.com/whats-new/3735/. cereal launch,” Food Business News, April 10, 2019, https://cosmosmagazine.com/biology/the-little-known-bush- available at: 27. www.instagram.com/howtobeveganinthehood. foods-about-to-change-the-world. https://www.foodbusinessnews.net/articles/13604- 28. Melissa Pandika, “Aileen Suzara Is Flipping the Script About cascadian-farm-pulls-back-on-kernza-cereal-launch. 43. Danielle Smaha, “Getting Green Crabs On The Plate: Meet Chef Ali Waks Adams,” Manomet, January 29, 2019, 'Unhealthy' Filipino Food,” Healthyish, March 8, 2018, 36. https://www.farmersedge.ca/carbon-credits/. available here: https://www.bonappetit.com/story/aileen- available at: https://www.manomet.org/publication/getting- suzara. 37. Janelle Bitker, “What’s behind a new climate surcharge green-crabs-on-the-plate-meet-chef-ali-waks-adams/. coming to your restaurant bill in California,” San Francisco 29. “Ministry of the Environment only serves vegetarian food,” 44. Nathanael Johnson, “How to protect our food from a crazy Chronicle, April 24, 2019, available at: Spiegel Online, February 18, 2017, available at: climate? Consider the hazelnut.” Grist, April 15, 2019, https://www.sfchronicle.com/restaurants/article/What-s- available at: https://grist.org/article/how-to-protect-our- https://www.spiegel.de/politik/deutschland/umweltministeriu behind-a-new-surcharge-coming-to-your-13792350.php. m-serviert-bei-veranstaltungen-nur-noch-vegetarische-kost- food-from-a-crazy-climate-consider-the-hazelnut/. a-1135231.html. z © 2019 Institute for the Future. All rights reserved. SR-2090 | www.iftf.org 46 ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS

Research Team: Quinault Childs, Max Elder, Sarah Smith Peer Review: Rod Falcon, David Pescovitz Editor: Mark Frauenfelder Copy Editor: Lenore Weiss Communications: Maureen Kirchner Executive Producer: Jean Hagan Production and Design: Robin Bogott, Kelsey Kamm

Institute for the Future (IFTF) is an independent, nonprofit 501(c)(3) strategic research and educational organization celebrating 50 years of forecasting experience. The core of our work is identifying emerging trends and discontinuities that will transform global society and the global marketplace. We provide insights into business strategy, design process, innovation, and social dilemmas. Our research generates the foresight needed to create insights that lead to action and spans a broad territory of deeply transformative futures, from health and health care to technology, the workplace, learning, and human identity. Institute for the Future is based in Palo Alto, California. www.iftf.org

z © 2019 Institute for the Future. All rights reserved. SR-2090 | www.iftf.org 48 About … THE FUTURE 50 This research is supported by IFTF's Future 50 partnership, which offers research-based perspectives, global expertise, signals of change, and specialized data to help organizations transform urgent foresight into actionable insight. Our Future 50 partners invest in critical research, enlightened facilitation, and strategic experimentation to shape the future of a world in flux. To learn more about the partnership, visit: www.iftf.org/future50.

THE FOOD FUTURES LAB IFTF’s Food Futures Lab identifies and catalyzes innovations with the potential to reinvent food systems, drawing connections across global disruptive shifts to challenge assumptions and reveal emerging strategies for resilience in a rapidly changing world.