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Dgexpo/B/Poldep/Note/2008 183 October 2008 DIRECTORATE-GENERAL FOR EXTERNAL POLICIES OF THE UNION DIRECTORATE B - POLICY DEPARTMENT - NOTE ON THE SITUATION IN ETHIOPIA Abstract: Ethiopia is the oldest independent country in Africa and one of the oldest in the world - at least 2000 years. The country has a tensed political life since the May 2005 elections. The ruling EPRDF of Prime Minister Meles firmly holds the power and does not seem ready to give it up. A new proposal of law on civil society organisations does not give much room for hope. Any opinions expressed in this document are the sole responsibility of the author and do not necessarily represent the official position of the European Parliament. DGExPo/B/PolDep/Note/2008_183 October 2008 [PE N°] EN This note was requested by the European Parliament's Development Committee This paper is published in the following languages: English Author: Armelle Douaud Manuscript completed in October 2008. Copies can be obtained through: E-mail: [email protected] Brussels, European Parliament, 13 October 2008 Main sources: European Commission UNDP The Economist Intelligence Unit Human Rights Watch Amnesty International EUEOM Ethiopia 2005 - Final report on the General Elections BBC World L’état de l’Afrique 2008 – Jeune Afrique Bilan du Monde 2008 – Le Monde Atlaséco 2009 – Le nouvel Observateur Sudan Tribune 2 BASIC STATISTICS Area: 1,127,127 sq km Population: 81,21 million Ethnic group's estimation: Oromo (40%), Amhara and Tigrean (32%), Sidamo (9%, Shankella (6%), Somali (6%), Afar (4%), Gurage (2%), other (1%) Religions: Muslim (45-50%), Ethiopian Orthodox (35-40%), animist (12%), other (3-8%) Languages: Amharic (official), Tigrinya, Orominga, Guaraginga, Somali, Arabic, English Life Expectancy at birth: 50 years Human Development Index: 169/177 (UNDP 2007-2008) Government type: Federal Republic Constitution: Approved by referendum in May 2003 Head of state: President Girma Woldegiorgis (since 2001, re-elected in October 2007) Head of Government: Prime Minister Meles Zenawi (in power since 1991) Legislature: House of Peoples' Representatives and the House of the Federation Capital: Addis Ababa Federal system: 9 ethnically-based regions, divided into zones themselves divided in woredas2, then divided in kebeles HISTORICAL OVERVIEW Ethiopia pre-dates Christianity with the kingdom of Axum in the northern part of the present state. In the 16th century, conflict with the Muslim sultanate of Adal cleared the way for the Oromos, a pastoral people expanding from the south, to take power. In the latter part of the 18th century, the monarchy weakened and central government broke down, though the position of the emperor and the Ethiopian Orthodox Church provided an element of continuity. Real power was in the hands of provincial nobles who fought for control of the throne until 1855. Tewodros from Gondar and then Yohannes IV from the northern Tigrai region tried to restore imperial power but spent much time fending off external enemies. Menelik II of Showa reunited and expanded the empire to the east, south and west of Showa. As Menelik's successes grew, European colonial powers grew greedy. Menelik II defeated the Italians at the Battle of Adwa in 1896 but under a treaty Italy retained control of Eritrea, which it formally colonised in 1890. Haile Selassie, a cousin of Menelik II, assumed the throne in 1930 and tried to open up Ethiopia to the world, but was deposed by Marxist military officers in 1974, after a severe famine. Lieutenant-Colonel Mengistu Haile Mariam seized power in 1977 and executed more than 60 of the emperor's officials. Haile Selassie was killed, allegedly on Mengistu's orders, before the "Red Terror" campaign in which tens of thousands were killed or tortured. In 1977, Somalia invaded eastern Ethiopia's Ogaden region but was driven out by the Ethiopian army with Soviet and Cuban aid. Famine in 1984-85 killed up to 1.2 million people. Mengistu became president of the People's Democratic Republic of Ethiopia under a new socialist constitution in 1987, but Eritrean rebels in the north, who had fought for 30 years, succeeded in over-running key towns, including Massawa port. By 1988, the defeat in Eritrea was followed by the loss of the Tigrai region to the Tigrai People's Liberation Front (TPLF). 1 UNFPA : State of World Population 2007, Unleashing the Potential of Urban Growth. 2 Both woreda and wereda are used. Woreda is used in the documents by the National Election Board of Ethiopia. Other documents, from Human Rights Watch for example, use wereda. 3 Mengistu fled to Zimbabwe in 1991, and a week later the EPRDF (a strong political alliance formed with the help of the TPLF as it attempted to transform itself from an ethnic-based regional party to an all-inclusive national organisation) entered the capital. In July 1991, the EPRDF set up an 87-seat council to govern during a transition period. EPRDF chairman Meles Zenawi was elected president and his deputy, Tamirat Layne, prime minister. After a UN- sponsored referendum, Eritrea became independent in May 1993. An elected Ethiopian Constituent Assembly ratified a new constitution in 1994, giving nine new regions the right to vote for self-determination. In May 1995, the EPRDF and its allies won elections, boycotted by most of the opposition, for a 548-member federal assembly and regional state councils. Meles became prime minister with full executive powers and Negasso Gidada was chosen as a largely figurehead president. A presidential election was held in October 2001. Lieutenant Woldegiorgis Girma was elected. DIVISION OF POWER The political scene in Ethiopia is dominated by the ruling Ethiopian Peoples' Democratic Republic Front (EPRDF), a loose alliance of political parties that in turn is dominated by the minority Tigrai People's Liberation Front (TPLF). Although the one-party system officially ended in 1991 when the ruling coalition assumed power following an armed rebellion, there is very little organised political opposition to the EPRDF on a national level at present. This is a result of the country's lack of democratic tradition, which continues to leave millions of Ethiopians underrepresented and disenfranchised. In the decade or so since coming to power, the ruling power has taken some steps to improve this situation, but continues to come under fire for its political intolerance and the heavy-handed tactics used to quell political dissent. The constitution, which came into effect in August 1995, established the Federal Democratic Republic of Ethiopia (FDRE). The federal government is responsible for national defence, foreign relations and the general policy of common interest and benefits. The federal states comprise nine autonomous states vested with powers of self-administration. The regions are distinguished primarily along linguistic lines, with five ethnic groups having designated regional states. Each state is governed by two federal assemblies: the legislator, known as the House of Peoples' Representatives (HPR), which consists of 527 members elected for a five-year term and a smaller, supervisory senate called the House of the Federation, with 117 members, designated by regional councils. In a joint session, both chambers elect the president to serve a six-year term, which can only be renewed once. He plays a largely ceremonial role since the Prime Minister is the chief executive, chairman of the Council of Ministers and commander-in-chief of the armed forces. Therefore it is the Prime Minister who holds real power in Ethiopia. Under the constitution, the judiciary is proclaimed to be independent. In practice the executive branch is virtually all-powerful and the prime minister can interfere in the appointment of judges. To date, there is still no proper functioning judiciary in Ethiopia. THE MAY 2005 ELECTIONS The general elections for the federal parliament and its nine regional equivalents were held on 15 May 2005. The one-party system officially ended in August 1991. These elections were only the third democratic ballot in the country's history. 55 political parties registered for the elections, while 27 regional and national parties fielded candidates. The ruling Ethiopian Peoples Revolutionary Democratic Front (EPRDF) coalition of Prime Minister Meles Zenawi used to control 479 seats in parliament since the 2000 elections. 4 Most of recognised political parties active in Ethiopia represented nothing more than a quiet, dissenting voice. The political scene is dominated by the Ethiopian People's Revolutionary Democratic Front (EPRDF) which is a loose alliance of political parties3, dominated by the Tigrai People's Liberation Front (TPLF). The TPLF helped to form the EPRDF alliance in an attempt to transform itself from an ethnic-based regional party to become an all-inclusive national organisation keen to embrace all Ethiopians. The campaign In an attempt to challenge the ruling EPRDF coalition's political dominance, some of the country's leading opposition parties formed alliances with other opposition movements. In August 2003, 15 opposition parties announced the formation of the United Ethiopian Democratic Forces (UEDF)4, the largest opposition force. However, in November 2004, four of the parties that co-founded the UEDF, i.e. All Ethiopian Unity Party (AEUP), Ethiopian Democratic Union Party-Medhin (EDUP-Medhin), the Ethiopian Democratic League (EDL) and the Movement for Democracy and Social Justice (Rainbow Ethiopia), announced the formation of another alliance, the Coalition for Unity and Democracy (CUD). There was also a sizeable political opposition force operating from outside of Ethiopia. The Ethiopian National Congress (ENC) has its headquarters in the US and offices throughout the world. Despite some violence Ethiopia had been relatively calm during the campaign. The political agenda before the elections was dominated by the build-up to general elections for the federal parliament and its nine regional equivalents. The ruling EPRDF, which held an overwhelming majority in the lower house of parliament, appeared committed to holding a free and fair ballot, having agreed in October 2004 to meet most of the demands put forward by the UEDF.
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