DIRECTORATE-GENERAL FOR EXTERNAL POLICIES OF THE UNION DIRECTORATE B - POLICY DEPARTMENT -

NOTE ON

THE SITUATION IN

Abstract:

Ethiopia is the oldest independent country in Africa and one of the oldest in the world - at least 2000 years. The country has a tensed political life since the May 2005 elections. The ruling EPRDF of Prime Minister Meles firmly holds the power and does not seem ready to give it up. A new proposal of law on civil society organisations does not give much room for hope.

Any opinions expressed in this document are the sole responsibility of the author and do not necessarily represent the official position of the European Parliament.

DGExPo/B/PolDep/Note/2008_183 October 2008

[PE N°] EN This note was requested by the European Parliament's Development Committee

This paper is published in the following languages: English

Author: Armelle Douaud

Manuscript completed in October 2008.

Copies can be obtained through: E-mail: [email protected]

Brussels, European Parliament, 13 October 2008

Main sources:  European Commission  UNDP  The Economist Intelligence Unit  Human Rights Watch  Amnesty International  EUEOM Ethiopia 2005 - Final report on the General Elections  BBC World  L’état de l’Afrique 2008 – Jeune Afrique  Bilan du Monde 2008 – Le Monde  Atlaséco 2009 – Le nouvel Observateur  Sudan Tribune

2 BASIC STATISTICS

Area: 1,127,127 sq km Population: 81,21 million Ethnic group's estimation: Oromo (40%), Amhara and Tigrean (32%), Sidamo (9%, Shankella (6%), Somali (6%), Afar (4%), Gurage (2%), other (1%) Religions: Muslim (45-50%), Ethiopian Orthodox (35-40%), animist (12%), other (3-8%) Languages: Amharic (official), Tigrinya, Orominga, Guaraginga, Somali, Arabic, English Life Expectancy at birth: 50 years Human Development Index: 169/177 (UNDP 2007-2008) Government type: Federal Republic Constitution: Approved by referendum in May 2003 Head of state: President Girma Woldegiorgis (since 2001, re-elected in October 2007) Head of Government: Prime Minister (in power since 1991) Legislature: House of Peoples' Representatives and the House of the Federation Capital: Federal system: 9 ethnically-based regions, divided into zones themselves divided in woredas2, then divided in kebeles

HISTORICAL OVERVIEW Ethiopia pre-dates Christianity with the kingdom of Axum in the northern part of the present state. In the 16th century, conflict with the Muslim sultanate of Adal cleared the way for the Oromos, a pastoral people expanding from the south, to take power. In the latter part of the 18th century, the monarchy weakened and central government broke down, though the position of the emperor and the Ethiopian Orthodox Church provided an element of continuity. Real power was in the hands of provincial nobles who fought for control of the throne until 1855. Tewodros from Gondar and then Yohannes IV from the northern Tigrai region tried to restore imperial power but spent much time fending off external enemies. Menelik II of Showa reunited and expanded the empire to the east, south and west of Showa. As Menelik's successes grew, European colonial powers grew greedy. Menelik II defeated the Italians at the Battle of Adwa in 1896 but under a treaty Italy retained control of Eritrea, which it formally colonised in 1890. Haile Selassie, a cousin of Menelik II, assumed the throne in 1930 and tried to open up Ethiopia to the world, but was deposed by Marxist military officers in 1974, after a severe famine. Lieutenant-Colonel seized power in 1977 and executed more than 60 of the emperor's officials. Haile Selassie was killed, allegedly on Mengistu's orders, before the "Red Terror" campaign in which tens of thousands were killed or tortured. In 1977, Somalia invaded eastern Ethiopia's Ogaden region but was driven out by the Ethiopian army with Soviet and Cuban aid. Famine in 1984-85 killed up to 1.2 million people. Mengistu became president of the People's Democratic Republic of Ethiopia under a new socialist constitution in 1987, but Eritrean rebels in the north, who had fought for 30 years, succeeded in over-running key towns, including Massawa port. By 1988, the defeat in Eritrea was followed by the loss of the Tigrai region to the Tigrai People's Liberation Front (TPLF).

1 UNFPA : State of World Population 2007, Unleashing the Potential of Urban Growth. 2 Both woreda and wereda are used. Woreda is used in the documents by the National Election Board of Ethiopia. Other documents, from Human Rights Watch for example, use wereda. 3 Mengistu fled to Zimbabwe in 1991, and a week later the EPRDF (a strong political alliance formed with the help of the TPLF as it attempted to transform itself from an ethnic-based regional party to an all-inclusive national organisation) entered the capital. In July 1991, the EPRDF set up an 87-seat council to govern during a transition period. EPRDF chairman Meles Zenawi was elected president and his deputy, Tamirat Layne, prime minister. After a UN- sponsored referendum, Eritrea became independent in May 1993. An elected Ethiopian Constituent Assembly ratified a new constitution in 1994, giving nine new regions the right to vote for self-determination. In May 1995, the EPRDF and its allies won elections, boycotted by most of the opposition, for a 548-member federal assembly and regional state councils. Meles became prime minister with full executive powers and was chosen as a largely figurehead president. A presidential election was held in October 2001. Lieutenant Woldegiorgis Girma was elected.

DIVISION OF POWER The political scene in Ethiopia is dominated by the ruling Ethiopian Peoples' Democratic Republic Front (EPRDF), a loose alliance of political parties that in turn is dominated by the minority Tigrai People's Liberation Front (TPLF). Although the one-party system officially ended in 1991 when the ruling coalition assumed power following an armed rebellion, there is very little organised political opposition to the EPRDF on a national level at present. This is a result of the country's lack of democratic tradition, which continues to leave millions of Ethiopians underrepresented and disenfranchised. In the decade or so since coming to power, the ruling power has taken some steps to improve this situation, but continues to come under fire for its political intolerance and the heavy-handed tactics used to quell political dissent. The constitution, which came into effect in August 1995, established the Federal Democratic Republic of Ethiopia (FDRE). The federal government is responsible for national defence, foreign relations and the general policy of common interest and benefits. The federal states comprise nine autonomous states vested with powers of self-administration. The regions are distinguished primarily along linguistic lines, with five ethnic groups having designated regional states. Each state is governed by two federal assemblies: the legislator, known as the House of Peoples' Representatives (HPR), which consists of 527 members elected for a five-year term and a smaller, supervisory senate called the House of the Federation, with 117 members, designated by regional councils. In a joint session, both chambers elect the president to serve a six-year term, which can only be renewed once. He plays a largely ceremonial role since the Prime Minister is the chief executive, chairman of the Council of Ministers and commander-in-chief of the armed forces. Therefore it is the Prime Minister who holds real power in Ethiopia. Under the constitution, the judiciary is proclaimed to be independent. In practice the executive branch is virtually all-powerful and the prime minister can interfere in the appointment of judges. To date, there is still no proper functioning judiciary in Ethiopia.

THE MAY 2005 ELECTIONS The general elections for the federal parliament and its nine regional equivalents were held on 15 May 2005. The one-party system officially ended in August 1991. These elections were only the third democratic ballot in the country's history. 55 political parties registered for the elections, while 27 regional and national parties fielded candidates. The ruling Ethiopian Peoples Revolutionary Democratic Front (EPRDF) coalition of Prime Minister Meles Zenawi used to control 479 seats in parliament since the 2000 elections.

4 Most of recognised political parties active in Ethiopia represented nothing more than a quiet, dissenting voice. The political scene is dominated by the Ethiopian People's Revolutionary Democratic Front (EPRDF) which is a loose alliance of political parties3, dominated by the Tigrai People's Liberation Front (TPLF). The TPLF helped to form the EPRDF alliance in an attempt to transform itself from an ethnic-based regional party to become an all-inclusive national organisation keen to embrace all Ethiopians. The campaign In an attempt to challenge the ruling EPRDF coalition's political dominance, some of the country's leading opposition parties formed alliances with other opposition movements. In August 2003, 15 opposition parties announced the formation of the United Ethiopian Democratic Forces (UEDF)4, the largest opposition force. However, in November 2004, four of the parties that co-founded the UEDF, i.e. All Ethiopian Unity Party (AEUP), Ethiopian Democratic Union Party-Medhin (EDUP-Medhin), the Ethiopian Democratic League (EDL) and the Movement for Democracy and Social Justice (Rainbow Ethiopia), announced the formation of another alliance, the Coalition for Unity and Democracy (CUD). There was also a sizeable political opposition force operating from outside of Ethiopia. The Ethiopian National Congress (ENC) has its headquarters in the US and offices throughout the world. Despite some violence Ethiopia had been relatively calm during the campaign. The political agenda before the elections was dominated by the build-up to general elections for the federal parliament and its nine regional equivalents. The ruling EPRDF, which held an overwhelming majority in the lower house of parliament, appeared committed to holding a free and fair ballot, having agreed in October 2004 to meet most of the demands put forward by the UEDF. These included allowing foreign election monitors, ending the harassment of opposition officials, providing fair access to the state-run broadcast media and setting up a joint election committee. However, the government did not replace the National Election Board of Ethiopia (NEBE), which is appointed by parliament, although it did appoint more members, and it did not switch the voting system from 'first past the post' to proportional representation. In January 20055, for the first time since the EPDRF came to power, the Ethiopian parliament reformed the country's electoral law. However, the ruling stopped short of the hopes of the opposition parties. The main concern was over the impartiality of the country's electoral commission. Among the most significant amendments was scrapping the number of signatures required for a candidate to stand in an election; allowing opposition groups to call meetings and stage demonstrations, while access to state-controlled airtime was also been agreed upon. Election outcome Early results showed the opposition with a big, sweeping all of the contested seats in the capital Addis Ababa both in the race for parliamentary as well as local government. By the afternoon of the 16 May, the opposition was halfway towards winning a majority in the national parliament with only about a third of the constituencies reporting complete results. Late on 16 May, though trailing badly in the preliminary report covering just under 200 seats released by the National Election Board, the ruling EPRDF announced that it had won more than 300 seats, while conceding that opposition parties won all 23 seats in Addis Ababa. The two major opposition

3 The Afar Democratic Association; Afar Democratic Union; Amhara National Democratic Movement (ANDM); 's Democratic Organisation (OPDO); and the TPLF. 4 The founding parties include: the Afar Revolutionary Democratic Unity Front (ARDUF); the All Ethiopian Unity Party (AEUP); the Council of Alternative Forces for Peace and Democracy (CAFPDE); the Ethiopian Democratic Unity Party (EDUP); the Oromo National Council (ONC) and the Tigrean Alliance for Democracy (TAND). 5 www.irinnews.org, 20/1/2005 5 parties, CUD and UEDF, claimed on that same day that they had won 185 of the approximately 200 seats for which the NEBE had released preliminary results. The vote tallying process was jeopardized when during the evening of 16 May, the Prime Minister declared a state of emergency, outlawed any public gathering, assumed direct command of the security forces, and replaced the capital city policy with federal police and special forces drawn from elite army units. The NEBE simultaneously ordered the vote tallying process to stop, an order which was not receded for nearly a week, yet another action against which the opposition and the independent election monitors strongly objected. Some repeat elections were scheduled in areas where either irregularities were reported or results were challenged. Opposition parties decided to boycott these elections in the Somali Region. On 5 September, the NEBE released its final results, in which the EPRDF retained its control of the government with 327 seats, or 59 % of the vote. Opposition parties won 174 seats (109 for CUD and 52 for UEDF), or 32 % of the vote. The CUD alone won 20 %. The CUD also won all but three of the 138 seats on the Addis Ababa "regional parliament". was elected mayor. Post electoral tensions The new parliament convened in early October 2005, and elected Meles for a third five-year term as Prime minister, but most CUD MPs, including the entire party leadership, declined to take their seats in protest of election irregularities and the government's refusal to meet their demands, such as an overhaul of the NEBE. The CUD also refused to take over the running of the Addis city administration and, at the same time, the government stated that the CUD would not be allowed to run the city unless the CUD MPs took up their seats in the federal parliament. The UEDF took a different stance from the CUD, and agreed to join parliament, although this caused disagreement within the coalition. The CUD called for a new round of public protests. The government reacted in using the armed force to suppress protests, killing at least 46 people and arresting thousands of opposition supporters. As a result, the entire CUD leadership – including the party's president Hailu Shawel, and the mayor of Addis, Berhanu Nega – were imprisoned in November 2005. The CUD's refusal to take its seats in parliament infuriated the government which took this opportunity to adopt an even harder line approach. Despite a vote against this by the UEDF, all boycotting MPs were stripped of their immunity. The regime also changed parliament's rules to neutralise the opposition6. The new Cabinet Meles Zenawi carried out a sweeping cabinet reshuffle after the new parliament was convened in October. He increased his cabinet from 18 to 20 posts but kept only seven ministers from the previous team: Addisu Legesse, the deputy Prime minister, Sufian Ahmed, the Finance minister, Seyoum Mesfin, the Foreign Affairs minister, and Tefera Waliwa as Capacity building minister are some of them. Many economic posts were unchanged. In naming his new appointees - including Kuma Demekesa at Defence, Berhanu Hailu at Information and Asefa Kesito at Justice - Meles has sought to keep a rough ethnic balance between the Oromos, the Amharas, his fellow and various smaller groups while whilst cementing his own personal authority. He particularly rewarded the Oromos with some important portfolios (such as Defence). Indeed the Ethiopia's largest ethnic group has traditionally been denied significant power. The opposition UEDF derives considerable support from , as does the outlawed Oromo

6 They were later "softened" but remain in the advantage of the majority. 6 Liberation Front. The region is a key political battleground, most of the time to the detriment of its inhabitants. 2005 European Union election observation mission International election observers were invited to the country in which more than 25 million of Ethiopia's 70 million people had registered to vote in 35,000 polling stations. A 159 strong EU Election Observation Mission was sent by the EU. The group was headed by MEP Ana Gomes (PSE). The European Parliament also sent a delegation chaired by Anders Wijkman (EPP). The EU pledged over €500,000 to help ensure democratic and fair elections. The EUEOM was the only observer mission to declare that the Ethiopian elections did not meet the international standards. The Final Report noted that the pre-election process went smoothly, and that the campaign was freer than for previous elections. Nonetheless "the counting and aggregation processes were marred by irregular practices, confusion and a lack of transparency". The report also highlighted the massive human rights violation which occurred after the elections. Yet the EU EOM concluded that the high participation of the Ethiopian people and the opening of the debate prior to the elections "marked a significant development towards democracy in Ethiopia". The opposition in prison After the elections human rights violations such as killings, arbitrary and incommunicado detentions, beatings, torture, harassment and disappearances by security forces were committed in Addis Ababa and other towns. Members and supporters of opposition groups, journalists and human rights defenders were the main victims. The repression started on 8 June when the main opposition parties accused authorities of rigging the polls. In the following weeks, dozens of people died during protests, many of them killed by security forces. The main opposition leaders and Mr Mesfin Woldemariam, former president of the Ethiopian Human Rights Council (EHRCO) were arrested. They were formally charged with crimes including, conspiracy and armed uprising, trying to subvert the Constitution, high treason and genocide (specifically against the interest of the Tigrayans). In total, 131 individuals and organisations were charged. Among them 10 newly-elected members of parliament, three prominent human rights defenders (Professor Mesfin Woldemariam, Daniel Bekele and Netsanet Demissie), 15 independent journalists, 30 people of Ethiopian origin who have been long resident abroad, including five journalists with the Voice of America radio station, and many members of the CUD. Five independent news organizations have also been charged, and all four political parties belonging to the CUD coalition. In addition, there were more cases of detention without charge of civil society activists. Behane Mogese, lawyer of the CUD leaders was arrested some days after meeting Commissioner Michel in Addis Ababa. Wasihun Melese and Anteneh Getnet, both members of the Ethiopian Teachers' Association (ETA), were arrested in Addis and held without charge. Amnesty International reported that these arrests may be a response by the authorities to a complaint lodged by the ETA and the global union federation Education International with the International Labour Organisation Committee on Freedom of Association, citing government interference with ETA activities and intimidation of ETA members, including the arrest of numerous teachers since May 2005. In December 2005, they were charged by the High Court in Addis Ababa with a range of criminal offences, most of which could carry the death penalty. The Trial Their trial started on 2 May 2006. The trial was monitored by a range of observers, including Michael Ellman, a retired British judge, on behalf of the EU. 7 The main evidence provided by the prosecution was a series of video and audio cassette recordings made during a number of meetings and interviews after the election. They featured CUD leaders, including Hailu Shawel. For the prosecution they incited unrest and challenged the constitution. But it seemed that the tapes were recorded during public events and simply showed the CUD leaders reiterating their positions following the election: the election was unfair, they would not take their seats in Parliament, and they backed public protests (but not necessarily violent ones). The CUD leaders declared that the charges presented as legal offences did not legally constitute a criminal offence, because they did not demonstrate the established cause and effect relationship of the crime. In June 2007, they were found guilty and sentenced to life imprisonment. In July and August, 60 of them were granted pardon by Prime Minister Meles under certain conditions. They had to admit having made "errors" in the post-election period. Their political rights were restored which meant that they would be able to run for future elections. The Parliament declared the empty seats officially vacant and by-elections were held in April 2008, along with the local elections, for the House of Representatives and for the city council of Addis Ababa. The division of the opposition However, the attempts of the regime to destabilise the opposition gave some results: some 90 CUD MPs (out of the possible 109) rapidly drifted back to parliament, even though their leaders were in prison. The divisions were rather easy to provoke as both the CUD and the UEDF are coalitions of small parties. For the authorities, the CUD does not exist as such but only as its four components. The NEBE also plays a vital role in accepting the registration of parties or any change in their leadership. For instance, the NEBE refused to recognise the merger proposal put forward by the CUD in October 2005 but accepted a change of leadership in the Oromo National Congress, a vital component of the UEDF, which may have been dictated by the authorities to encourage leadership squabbles within opposition parties. The rump CUD formed a new political entity in April 2006, called the Coalition of Unity and Democracy Party (CUDP), which has been registered by the electoral authorities. The "parliamentary" CUD did not consult the imprisoned leaders before the forming of the party and the signing of the deal with the EPRDF. Another element of the CUD, not represented in parliament, has formed a new opposition grouping, the Alliance for Freedom and Democracy (AFD) with outlawed opposition groups (the and the Ogaden National Liberation Front). Once again, it seems that the CUD leadership was not consulted on this matter. As a result, parliamentary opposition groups represented only a portion of opposition opinion, so that extra-parliamentary developments, including those within and between the diaspora and outlawed groups were equally important. Recent developments show that the opposition is trying to re-organise itself around the former CUD leadership in an attempt to go united to the 2010 elections.

CURRENT POLITICAL SITUATION The April 2008 local elections The EPRDF won a landslide victory in the April 2008 local elections, including in Addis- Ababa. Opposition parties and Human Rights Watch denounced violence and intimidation cases. HRW wrote about "widespread acts of violence, arbitrary detention and intimidation".

8 HRW has documented "systematic patterns of repression and abuse that have rendered the elections meaningless in many areas"7. On 13 and on 20 April 2008 Ethiopians were to designate their representatives in the kebele (villages), and woreda (districts made of several kebeles). The EPRDF had about 4 million candidates (for 4 million open seats) running for the local elections when the main opposition party able to present candidates - the UEDF - had around 20,000 people. Intimidation and procedural irregularities limited registration to only 6,000 candidates when they wanted to have 14,000 more registered, the UEDF said. The UEDF thus decided to pull out of the electoral process altogether on 10 April. The OFDM pulled out its candidates a few days before the second round. Beyene Petros, the UEDF Chair declared that his party's candidates were beaten, arrested, and had their property confiscated. Local authorities are also said to have prevented the registration of opposition candidates in many constituencies where the opposition had achieved good results in 2005. NEBE officials at the local level were accused of not being neutral and of blocking opposition registration. The Afar Liberation Front complained to suffer from the same irregularities and harassment in the Afar region. As a result, the EPRDF won 559 seats out of the 623 districts in the country and all but one of the 39 Parliament seats in by-elections8. The official turnout was above 90%. The opposition also contested that figure and estimated the participation to be under 50%. The domination of the EPRDF in the countryside will probably have consequences for the 2010 general elections. The opposition fears that it might be very difficult for them to campaign throughout the country as the EPRDF holds the whole rural Ethiopia. The control of local administration is also important for the ruling party as since 2001 the provision of basic services such as health and education has been decentralised. Consequently woreda administrators have gained greater discretion in the allocation of budget expenditures9. The reunification of the opposition After almost three years of division there are now signs that the opposition is trying to reunite around a newly created party: the Unity for Democracy and Justice Party. The party was created in June 2008 by some of the CUD leaders who were imprisoned between 2005 and 2007. Ms Birtukan Midekssa is the chairwoman. A lawyer and a former judge, she used to be the CUD Vice President and was among the 100 leaders of the opposition and human rights defenders imprisoned after the May 2005 elections. The Unity for Democracy and Justice Party wants to run for the 2010 general elections. The party is indeed the heir of the CUD. Its creation is a - so far successful - attempt to reunite the once divided CUD. Indeed the new party gathers former prisoners and CUD MPs who took their seat in the House of Representatives. Besides the UEDF, the Oromo Federalist Democratic Movement (ODFM)10, the Somali Democratic Alliance Forces (SDAF), Arena11, Dr. Negasso Gidada (former Ethiopian President and independent MP) and (former Defence Minister) created the "Forum for Democratic Dialogue in Ethiopia" in July 2008. They declared to be willing to expand the political space at a time where laws could limit the actions of political parties but also of civil

7 Human Rights Watch, Ethiopia: Repression sets stage for non-competitive elections, 11 April 2008. 8 The Gambella Peoples' Unity Democratic Movement, one of the EPRDF allies won the remaining seat. 9 Human Rights Watch. 10 The OFDM is chaired by Bulcha Demekesa, MP. 11 Arena's official name is Union of Tigrians for Democracy and Sovereignty. Ato is its leader. 9 society and the press. They also took strong stance against the government's supposed inability to uphold the country's territorial integrity. Tensions in Somali region (Ogaden)12 There is actually more than a situation of tension there; the situation could be described as a silent war. Civil population are hostages of both the Ethiopian army and the rebels of the Ogaden National Liberation Front (ONLF). Human Rights Watch documented severe abuses qualifying as war crimes and crimes against humanity13. The peak of the conflict was in mid- 2007 after the ONLF attacked a Chinese oil installation and killed 65 Ethiopian workers and 9 Chinese technicians. The repression by the Ethiopian army then intensified. HRW reported that the Ethiopian army displaced many rural communities and burned villages. The army also confiscated livestock, restricted the access to water or to food. Torture in custody, arbitrary detention and extrajudicial killings are also reported. The conflict occurs (almost) behind closed doors as the press, humanitarian agencies and any independent observer is prevented from entering the region14. HRW has reported that only a few humanitarian organisations still have a very limited access to the Somali State, and food distribution is politically manipulated. The government is also accused of forced recruitment to set pro- government militias. Of course the main rebel group, the ONLF is also responsible of war crimes, one of the most serious being the use of landmines. The origins of the conflict are old and deeply-rooted. Most of the people living in the region are of Somali ethnicity. Indeed, the Somali territory was divided and allocated to four different countries at colonial times. The then Ogaden was attached to Ethiopia in 1948. Nationalist tensions quickly emerged. This cumulated into a war between Somalia and Ethiopia in 1977-78. Yet most of the repression was conducted by the Mengistu's regime after the war. A solution was expected to be found with the "ethnic federalism" established in 1991, once the EPRDF came to power. The ONLF won the regional elections and formed the regional government. Soon enough it appeared that the Ethiopian central government was not willing to abandon any of its powers to a party which was not part of the EPRDF coalition. Tensions also came out inside the "Somali camp" between the Ogaadeeni and other clans. The federal government continued to send to the Somali region powerful federal officials and reinforced the presence of federal security forces. On the other hand, the ONLF is strongly clan-based and does not offer a strategic vision of the future of the region, not even clear policy objectives. The region is semi-arid and inhabited by pastoralists. This is one of the poorest regions in one the poorest countries in the world. The access to Somalia, especially to Somaliland, is vital for the Somali's economy. The Ethiopian authorities decided to impose a trade embargo to the Somali region which caused huge damages to the civil population. All commercial truck movement in the region and across the border into Somalia is prohibited, as well as the free movement of livestock by foot. Most of livestock in the region is exported to Somalia, or beyond through its coastal ports. HRW estimated that this policy was deliberately chosen to terrorise the population. The responsibility to protect civilians must be urgently addressed HRW concluded.

12 Ogaden is the historic name of the region, based on one of the Somali clans, the Ogaadeeni. The ONLF is the organisation of the Ogaadeeni and does not represent the entire Somali clans, even less all ethnic groups living in the region. 13 Human Rights Watch, Collective punishment: War crimes and crimes against humanity in the Ogaden area of Ethiopia’s Somali Regional State, June 2008. 14 The International Committee of the Red Cross (ICRC) was expelled from the region in July 2007. 10 The conflict has a clear regional dimension. Eritrea is accused of supporting the ONLF. There is also a link with the situation in Somalia although not as obvious as some years ago.

HUMAN RIGHTS Human rights organisations report an alarming deterioration in Ethiopia's human rights record in the past few years. However, Prime Minister Meles Zenawi had pledged to push human rights to the top of the political agenda. In 2004 he appointed a human rights commissioner to investigate abuses. Nevertheless, the situation has clearly deteriorated after the 2005 elections. Despite all violations of human rights it has committed or supported, the Ethiopian regime seems to be rather well protected from donors' criticism. The reason of this "complaisance" should be found in the constant support of Ethiopia to the war on terror. Ethiopia is a close and faithful ally of the US. Ethiopian authorities then seem to feel that they can act in all impunity. The extreme example is the US silence on what is going on in the Somali region. Violence and intimidation Even before the elections, there were frequent reports of human rights violations in the country, notably detention without charge or trial, arrests of critics of the government and even extra- judicial executions. Many dissidents, members of the former regime or opponents to the present government, are in detention. The draft law on Civil Society Organisations In October a new bill should be passed in Parliament. The version put to Members' vote should be sensibly less restrictive than the first draft but many concerns remain on the future ability of NGOs to work freely in Ethiopia. Human Rights Watch15 underline several points of concerns posed by the draft law: obstacles erected to human rights and governance-related work; government control and interference with domestic CSOs; bureaucratic hurdles; harsh criminal and administrative penalties. The draft plans to create a new body called the Charities and Societies Agency (CSA), chaired by and composed of government-appointed people, which will be in charge of authorising, disband, and monitor the activities of civil society organisations. Any CSO potentially prejudicial to "public peace, welfare or good order in Ethiopia", a rather vague list of offenses, could be barred from registration. The CSA will be in charge of that assessment. Besides any foreign organisation or any CSO receiving more than 10% of its financing from abroad, the threshold being very low for such a poor country, will be prevented to work in the field of "human and democratic rights; the promotion of the equality of nations, nationalities, peoples, gender and religion; the promotion and protection of the rights of children and the disabled; the advancement of conflict resolution or reconciliation; and the promotion of the efficiency of the justice and law enforcement services."16 Anyone infringing the regulation could be severely punished with high fines and long imprisonment sentences, up to 15 years. HRW also makes a parallel with the similar Zimbabwean law, which was "softer" but unanimously condemned by the (Western) international community. Passed in 2004, that law was never implemented though.

15 Human Rights Watch's analysis of Ethiopia's Draft CSO Law, 11 September 2008. 16 Draft Law, sections 14.2, 14.5. 11 If adopted, the draft could prevent international NGOs, especially those active in human rights, to conduct any activity in Ethiopia. But the problem could go beyond; they could also be prevented to work with the African Union institutions whose seat is in Addis Ababa. The renditions: a close ally in the war on terror Human Rights Watch recently reported the case of people arrested in Kenya, transferred to Somalia then to Ethiopia to be questioned by US officials17. The HRW report was rejected by the Ethiopian government which strongly denied the charges, though eight Kenyan nationals who were imprisoned in Ethiopia were released two days after the publication of the report. After the Ethiopian army entered Somalia to support the Transitional Federal Government against the Union of Islamic Courts, many people, some of them suspected of links with terrorist activities, flew to Kenya where many were arrested. HRW said that once in Ethiopia they were interrogated by CIA and FBI officials. Most of the cases occurred in 2007 and those who were retained were later sent back. The eight Kenyans already mentioned were the last ones to remain in custody.

18 RELATIONS WITH SOMALIA Ethiopia and its southern neighbour, Somalia, have always had a difficult relationship due to the latter's territorial claims over Ethiopia's south-eastern Ogaden region. The two countries even went to war over the disputed region in 1977-78, with Ethiopia managing to repel a Somalian invasion overseen by the then president Mohamed Siad Barre. Ethiopia has been reluctant to recognise the transitional national government, established in August 2000, accusing it of hosting pro-Islamic terrorist groups like Al Ittihad al-Islam. Ethiopia tried by all means to pre-empt the threat emanating from Somalia. The transitional government had repeatedly accused Ethiopia of undermining its authority by backing powerful Somali faction leaders who had set up a Somali Reconciliation and Restoration Council (SRRC) and who refused to recognise the interim administration's authority. The president of Somalia, Abdullahi Yusuf Ahmed (the former president of Puntland), who was elected by the Nairobi-based parliament in exile in October 2004, has a close relationship with Meles. In December 2006, following the success of the Union of Islamic Courts (UIC) militia gaining control over Mogadishu and its surrounding areas, Ethiopian intervened militarily, with the support of the United States. After a first military victory of Ethiopian troops, the Islamic Courts gained some renewed power and the situation is again very instable in Mogadishu and in the country. An African Union Force (Amisom) made of 1,600 Ugandan troops is present in Somalia and should have been augmented. Due to the extremely bad situation on the field other contributing countries such as Burundi or Ghana did not send any troops. As a result the Ethiopian army is still in Somalia with dozens of thousands of troops while the military intervention was supposed to last a few weeks when the army entered the country. In fact Eritrea and Ethiopia are indirectly fighting in Somalia as Eritrea is backing the UIC.

ECONOMIC AND SOCIAL SITUATION The country has poor social and economic development records and a high demographic growth. Indeed the population should increase from 81.2 in 2007 to 170.2 in 2050.

17 Human Rights Watch, "Why am I still here?": The Horn of Africa renditions and the fate of the missing. 1 October 2008. 18 Relations with Eritrea are dealt with in a separate note. 12 National growth is nevertheless currently very high - around 8% annually (it was even 10% the past years). An important part is due to higher exports of coffee, tea, horticulture and oilseeds. In June 2007 Ethiopia signed an important agreement with Starbucks. From now on the producers should get higher benefits from the coffees of Ethiopian origins sold to the multinational (Sidamo, Yirgacheffe and Harar)19. The soaring food prices hit Ethiopia's population, especially the poorest in rural and urban areas. The country faced between 66% and 97% price increase over the major food items. As a result 4.5 million of Ethiopians, including 75,000 children, need food assistance, according to official sources. For Prime Minister Meles the higher prices are the result of the high economic growth. 80% of the population works in the agricultural sector. Nevertheless the country remains highly sensitive to food insecurity20. Explanations may lie in the annual population growth rate, the lack of road infrastructure to link productive regions to those of scarcity and an inadequate distribution of land. Furthermore the different military interventions (or at least strong presence) conducted by the government internally – in Ogaden, in Oromia and at the Eritrean border – and internationally – in Somalia – cost a lot to the national budget. The defence budget increased of 16% in 2008 (which supposed some additional € 36.5 million). Meanwhile the share of the population living under the poverty line in the country is 44.2%, one of the highest in Sub Saharan Africa. About 23% of the population lives on less than US$ 1 per day and 77.8% with less than US$ 2 per day. Ethiopia also suffers from brain drain in the health sector – most of its doctors leave the country - and is ranked 180 out of 190 in a WHO study on quality of health system. The Government has adopted a national poverty reduction strategy, the Plan for Accelerated and Sustainable Development to End Poverty (PASDEP) which is supported by the EU development aid under the 10th EFD.

RELATIONS WITH THE EU

The 10th EDF Most of Ethiopian revenues come for international aid. An important part was channelled through budget support. When the political situation deteriorated after the 2005 elections, donors decided to suspend general budget support. The indicative financial allocation for Ethiopia totals € 644 million in programmable funds plus € 30 million for unforeseen needs. The EC’s contribution to the Response Strategy is built around three focal sectors:  Transport and Regional Integration (€ 250 million)  Rural Development and Food Security (€ 130 million)  Macro-Economic Support and Governance (€ 244 million) It is also proposed to include in the non-focal sector a pioneering programme for the restoration and conservation of Ethiopia’s cultural, biological and environmental heritage (€ 10 million); a de-mining action (€ 5 million); and a Technical Cooperation Facility (€ 5 million).

19 Jeune Afrique, L’état de l’Afrique 2008, Hors série n°18. 20 3 million people need food aid every year. 13 Humanitarian aid Ethiopia is a regular recipient of humanitarian aid21. In 2008 ECHO allocated € 4 million to provide humanitarian assistance to over 500,000 persons. The main action is meant to relieve human suffering caused by natural and man-made disasters through the provision of humanitarian assistance in different sectors, including health, water and sanitation, protection, support to refugees and Internally Displaced Persons (IDP). Some € 200,000 are dedicated to maintain technical assistance in the field and to monitor the implementation of operations. Ethiopia will also benefit from further aid under the Food Aid Decision (a total allocation of € 10 million) and the Regional Drought Decision (€ 30 million for the Horn of Africa). ECHO estimates that endemic food insecurity problems in the country are mainly due to recurrent droughts, floods, rapidly growing population, poor technology and lack of or, at best, poor quality infrastructure.

THE 2006 ACP-EU JPA MISSION TO ETHIOPIA

In October 2006, an ACP-EU JPA Delegation visited Ethiopia. Due to the social, political and economic situation of the country and its relationships to its neighbours, the Delegation gave the following recommendations, among others:

1. Human rights: whether true or not, the reports in the international media of cases of alleged human rights violations in Ethiopia do not augur well for the international image of the country. To this end, the delegation would like to encourage the continuation of regular and focussed political dialogue between the European Union and Ethiopia in the framework of Article 8 of the Cotonou Agreement. 2. Prisoners and prisons: the delegation is hopeful that the on-going trials of opposition political leaders arrested just after the 2005 elections will be conducted in a free, fair and transparent manner. It would request the Government to seriously examine the possibility of granting an amnesty or pardon to all of those charged with politically-related offences. The Government of Ethiopia should take immediate steps to improve prison conditions, with significantly greater rights for visits to prisoners. 3. Parliament: the Delegation commends the Parliament of Ethiopia for revising its Rules of Procedure. The Delegation hopes that this will provide for the full participation of all Members of Parliament in the procedures of Parliament and contribute to strengthening of a culture of democracy.

21 The country received € 25 million from ECHO in 2006-2007. 14