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Australian Equity Research EL&C Baillieu Research Top16 September Stock Picks 2019 – September 2019 Australian Equity Research September 2019 Top Stock Picks – Mid & Small Caps Overall: We select our preferred picks from our mid and small cap company universe, as well as provide an outlook for the economy and equity market. We also provide key insights from our listed investment company (LICs) coverage. Market commentary: In 2Q19, Australian real GDP growth slowed to just 1.4% YoY, around 28-year lows. This softness was reflected in the August 2019 reporting season, with companies reporting sluggish sales growth, some modest margin pressure, and flat profits. So far in 3Q19 the data is mixed, with soft vehicle sales, retail sales, business and consumer sentiment. Stock Research Analysts valuations remain at above-average levels, with the forward PE for the market above 16x; 12% above average. In the current environment, we remain Malcolm Wood cautious; preferring exposure to companies with growing earnings and low Chief Investment Officer levels of corporate debt. + 612 9250 8916 [email protected] Top stock picks: Post the FY19 reporting season, our list of top mid and small caps are as follows: Adairs (ADH), Ardent Leisure Group (ALG), Bapcor (BAP), James Casey EQT Holdings (EQT), Hansen Technologies (HSN), Monadelphous Group Head of Research (MND), MNF Group (MNF), Steadfast Group (SDF) and Village Roadshow (VRL). + 613 9602 9265 This includes an upgrade of MND to Buy due to valuation support and a robust [email protected] pipeline of near-term opportunities. Nicolas Burgess Listed investment companies (LICs): EL&C Baillieu provides performance Analyst - Industrials reporting and insights across a universe of 67 LICs. Based on our analysis, our + 613 9602 9379 top picks include AFIC (AFI) and Diversified United Investment (DUI) in [email protected] traditional LICS; WAM Leaders (WLE) and Ophir High Conviction Fund (OPH) in large caps; WAM Microcap (WMI) and Acorn Capital Investment Fund (ACQ) in Nick Caley the small caps; MFF Capital Investments (MFF) and PM Capital Global Analyst - Industrials Opportunities Fund (PGF) internationally; and Hearts and Minds (HM1) among + 613 9602 9283 specialists. [email protected] Summary of top picks Luke Macnab Analyst - Industrials Share Price + 612 9250 8930 [email protected] Stock Code Rating Risk Price Target Analyst Adairs ADH BUY High 1.74 2.24 James Casey Warren Edney Analyst - Resources Ardent Leisure Group ALG BUY High 1.06 1.55 Nick Caley + 613 9602 9384 [email protected] Bapcor BAP BUY Medium 6.96 7.40 James Casey EQT Holdings EQT BUY Medium 30.00 35.00 Nicolas Burgess Piers Flanagan Analyst - Industrials Hansen Technologies HSN BUY Low 3.24 4.50 Nicolas Burgess + 613 9282 8127 [email protected] Monadelphous Group MND BUY High 15.62 17.50 Piers Flanagan MNF Group MNF BUY High 5.04 5.86 Luke Macnab Supun Wijerathna Associate Analyst Steadfast Group SDF BUY Low 3.63 3.90 Nicolas Burgess + 613 9602 9325 [email protected] Village Roadshow VRL BUY Medium 2.84 3.70 Nick Caley baillieu.com.au E.L. & C. Baillieu Limited ABN 74 006 519 393 Please read the disclaimer at the end of this report 1 2 EL&C Baillieu Research Top Stock Picks – September 2019 Table of Contents Equity market outlook 4 Top Stock Picks: Adairs (ADH) 8 Ardent Leisure Group (ALG) 10 Bapcor (BAP) 12 EQT Holdings (EQT) 14 Hansen Technologies (HSN) 16 Monadelphous Group (MND) 18 MNF Group (MNF) 20 Steadfast Group (SDF) 22 Village Roadshow (VRL) 24 Listed Investment Companies (LICs) 26 Disclaimer 28 baillieu.com.au E.L. & C. Baillieu Limited ABN 74 006 519 393 Please read the disclaimer at the end of this report 3 EL&C Baillieu Research Top Stock Picks – September 2019 Market outlook • In 2Q19, Australian real GDP growth slowed to just 1.4% YoY, around 28-year lows, with private domestic demand falling 0.3% YoY. This softness was reflected in the August reporting season, with companies reporting sluggish sales growth, some modest margin pressure, and flat profits. • Looking ahead, the outlook will be driven by the balance between four headwinds and three tailwinds for growth. The headwinds, totalling ~1-2% pa of GDP over 2019-20, include the downturn in housing investment, pressure on squeezed households, emerging headwinds – as drivers like the LNG ramp-up and NBN and NDIS rollouts taper off. The tailwinds, totalling ~1.4% of GDP, include RBA rate cuts (we expect rates to fall to 0.5%), the low and middle income tax offset and the positive terms of trade effect, which if particularly successful could help moderate the headwinds. So far in 3Q19 the data is mixed, with soft vehicle sales, retail sales, job ads and business and consumer sentiment, but strong signs of a turnaround in the established housing market. In our view, Australia needs a much larger fiscal stimulus. In the absence of this, we expect a continuation of weak growth driving flat-to-modestly lower profits. • Valuation is at above-average levels, with the forward PE above 16x; 12% above average and, on a sector-adjusted basis, 7-23% more expensive than the US. From such valuation levels, the Australian market generally declines ~6-9% on a one-year view. As such, we expect the Australian market to decline modestly to around 6200. At the moment, the equity market is putting little weight on downside risks, expecting a ‘Goldilocks’ scenario where RBA rate cuts lift growth but leave low inflation. In our view, this is too optimistic, and we remain cautious on the local market. Fig.1: Australian equity market performance – various sectors (common base = 100) 120 115 110 105 100 95 90 85 80 Sep 18 Oct 18 Nov 18 Dec 18 Jan 19 Feb 19 Mar 19 Apr 19 May 19 Jun 19 Jul 19 Aug 19 Sep 19 S&P/ASX 100 Accum. Index S&P/ASX Small Ordinaries Accum. Index S&P/ASX 300 Industrials Accum. Index S&P/ASX Small Resources Accum. Index Source: Iress baillieu.com.au E.L. & C. Baillieu Limited ABN 74 006 519 393 Please read the disclaimer at the end of this report 4 EL&C Baillieu Research Top Stock Picks – September 2019 Small companies: Valuation multiples remain elevated • Australian share market indices have performed strongly over the past 12 months, particularly at the large capitalisation end of the market. The S&P/ASX 200 Accumulation Index is up 11.8% over the past 12 months, outperforming the Australian Small Companies Indices, represented by the Small Ordinaries Accumulation Index, which increased a more modest 4.7% over the past 12 months. • Within the Small Companies Index, the Small Industrials Index increased 6.5%, ahead of the Small Resources Index which declined 1.4% over the past 12 months. • Based on consensus estimates, the one-year forward price to earnings (P/E) ratio for the Small Ordinaries Index is currently trading on a multiple of 18.2x, a 26% premium to its long-term average of 14.5x. Similarly, the Small Industrials Index is currently trading on a one-year forward P/E ratio of 19.7x, a 39% premium to its long-term average of 14.2x. • Clearly valuations of smaller companies remain well above long-term averages. Furthermore, the Small Ordinaries PER is at a significant premium (19.2%) compared with the ASX 200 PER. We remain focussed on companies with a track record of growth, strong financial positions and low levels of corporate debt. Fig.2: Small Ordinaries index – one-year forward PER AUS Small vs Large Cap Valuation 22 20 18 16 14 12 10 8 Jan 2009 Jan 2010 Jan 2011 Jan 2012 Jan 2013 Jan 2014 Jan 2015 Jan 2016 Jan 2017 Jan 2018 Jan 2019 Small Industrials 12 MF PE ASX200 12MF PE Small Ordinaries 12MF PE Source: Bloomberg Consensus Fig.3: Small Ordinaries index – one-year forward PER Small Ordinaries Forward PER 20 19 18 17 16 15 14 13 12 11 10 Jan 2012 Jan 2013 Jan 2014 Jan 2015 Jan 2016 Jan 2017 Jan 2018 Jan 2019 Source: Bloomberg Consensus baillieu.com.au E.L. & C. Baillieu Limited ABN 74 006 519 393 Please read the disclaimer at the end of this report 5 EL&C Baillieu Research Top Stock Picks – September 2019 Reporting season highlights and earnings revisions • Reporting Season: Consistent with the soft economy, key themes from the August 2019 reporting season were: 1) sluggish top-line growth; 2) flat operating profit, with margin pressure in financials (NIM, compliance costs), global industrials (input cost pressure) and resources ex-iron ore (weak oil and metals prices); 3) scarcity of pricing power; 4) cost-cutting regaining prominence; and 5) capital management moderating. • In light of a challenging reporting period, company downgrades outweighed upgrades by a factor of over 2 to 1 amongst small companies. • Of the 144 companies in the Small Ords that reported during the period, 36 (25%) had positive EPS revisions, while 87 (60%) had negative EPS revisions. The average revision was -6.9%; however, the average price reaction was an increase of 2.2%. The median revision was -1.7%, while the median price reaction was 1.2%. Only 41 (47%) of the companies which had negative EPS revisions recorded a negative price reaction. Fig.4: Small Ords index – positive reporting season revisions Fig.5: Small Ords index – negative reporting season revisions Next Year Price Reaction - Next Year Price Reaction - Company Name Company Name Revisions 2d Revisions 2d Metals X Ltd 25.9% -12.5% NEXTDC Ltd -291.0% -8.5% Western Areas Ltd 22.3% 1.2% Superloop Ltd -83.7% 1.1% MACA Ltd 18.7% 0.6% Clinuvel Pharmaceuticals Ltd -64.7% -1.5% Baby Bunting Group Ltd 11.5% 16.5% Ardent Leisure Group Ltd -58.6% -4.2% Ingenia Communities Group 11.2% 4.0%
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