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Understanding Demographics and Politics in Kenya

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Understanding Demographics and Politics in Kenya Understanding Demographics and Politics in Kenya Copyright © Konrad Adenauer Stiftung 2020. Oscar Otele. Elijah Ambasa. Jan Cernicky. Edwin Adoga Ottichilo. Understanding Demographics and Politics in Kenya Understanding Demographics and Politics in Kenya A publication of the Konrad Adenauer Stiftung, 2020. Referencing: Otele, O., Ambasa, E., Cernicky, J., and Adoga, E. (2020). Understanding Demographics and Politics in Kenya. Konrad Adenauer Stiftung. Disclaimer This document has been produced with the supervision and financial assistance of the Konrad Adenauer Stiftung. The views expressed herein should however not be taken, in any way, to reflect the official opinion of the organization. A catalogue record for this book is available from the Kenya National Library Services. ISBN: Layouted, Printed and Bound in Nairobi, Kenya by Colour House Limited. IV TABLE OF CONTENTS LIST OF TABLES VI LIST OF FIGURES VII FORWARD IX ACKNOWLEDGEMENT X EXECUTIVE SUMMARY XI CHAPTER ONE: INTRODUCTION 1 1.1 Background of the Study 1 1.2 Objectives of the Study 3 1.3 Definitions of Key Concepts 4 1.4 Literature Review 4 1.4.1 Population Projections 5 1.4.2 Implication of Demographic Changes on Political Process 6 1.4.3 Implication of Demographic Changes on Economic Growth 8 1.4.4 Demographic changes, social policies and Inequalities 9 1.4.5 Gaps in the Literature 10 1.5 Methodology 10 CHAPTER TWO: KENYANS PERCEPTION OF DEMOGRAPHIC CHANGES 13 2.1 Introduction 13 2.2 Perception of National Population Projections 13 2.3 Perception of Population Projections in Counties 16 2.3.1 Population Projections in Rift Valley Region 16 2.3.2 Population Projections in Coastal Region 18 2.3.3 Population Projections in the North Eastern Region 18 2.3.4 Population Projections in Eastern Region 20 2.3.5 Population Projections in Central Region 22 2.3.6 Population Projections in Western Region 24 2.3.7 Population Projection in Nyanza Region 25 2.3.8 Population Projection of Nairobi Region 25 2.4 Perceptions on Implications of Demographic Changes 27 2.4.1 Perceptions of Demographic Changes on Economics 27 2.4.2 Perceptions of Demographic Changes on Politics 28 2.4.3 Perceptions of Demographic Changes on Social Policies 30 CHAPTER THREE: SOCIAL GROUPS AND THEIR DIFFERENCES ON POPULATION GROWTH 31 3.1 Introduction 31 3.2 Social Groups in Urban Areas 31 3.2.1 Population’s Level of Education and Population Growth 32 3.2.2 Income Sources and Population Growth 35 3.2.3 Ethnic Affiliations and Population Growth 38 3.3 Social Groups in Rural Areas 40 V 3.3.2 Income Sources and Population Growth 45 3.3.3 Ethnic Affiliations and Population Growth 49 3.4 Differences in Urban and Rural Areas 51 3.5 Population and Poverty Distribution 53 CHAPTER FOUR: REGIONAL DIFFERENCES AND THEIR PERCEPTION ON POPULATION GROWTH 55 4.1 Introduction 55 4.2 Regional Differences in Urban Areas 56 4.2.1 Population’s Level of Education and Population Growth 56 4.2.2 Income Sources and Population Growth 59 4.2.3 Ethnic Affiliations and Population Growth 63 4.3 Regional Differences in Rural Areas 65 4.3.1 Population’s Level of Education and Population Growth 65 4.3.2 Income Sources and Population Growth 69 4.3.3 Ethnic Affiliations and Population Growth 73 CHAPTER FIVE: POLITICAL INTERVENTIONS AND POPULATION GROWTH 75 5.1 Introduction 75 5.1.1 Political Intervention(s) by the National Government and their Impact on Population Growth 75 5.1.2 Political Intervention by County Governments and their Impact on Population Growth 79 5.1.3 Political Intervention by Political Parties in Kenya and their Impact on Population Growth 80 5.1.4 Political Intervention by Individual Members of Parliament, Members of County Assemblies and their Impact on Population Growth 80 CHAPTER SIX: SUMMARY AND RECOMMENDATIONS 83 6.1 Summary 83 6.2 Recommendations 86 REFERENCES 89 LIST OF TABLES Table 1: 2019 Population and Housing Census and Projected Population (2020-2030) ............. 13 Table 2: 2019 Population and Housing Census and Projected Populations for Northern Eastern Region, 2020-2030 ................................................................................................. 19 Table 3.1: Population Projections and Population Growth in 2020 ............................................... 31 Table 3.2.1: Population’s Level of Education and Population Growth ........................................... 32 Table 3.3: Distribution of Population by Economic Status in Urban Areas ................................... 35 Table 3.4: Ethnic Groups in Sampled Urban Counties .................................................................... 38 Table 3.5: Distribution of Population by Highest Level of Education Completed in Rural Areas ............................................................................................................................................ 41 Table 3.6: Distribution of Population by Economic Status in Rural Areas .................................... 46 VI Table 3.7: Ethnic Groups in Sampled Rural Counties ...................................................................... 49 Table 3.8: Food poverty Estimates (Individuals) ............................................................................... 53 Table 3.9: Overall poverty Estimates (Individuals) ........................................................................... 54 Table 3.10: Extreme poverty Estimates (Individuals) ....................................................................... 54 Table 4.1: Distribution of Population by Highest Level of Education Completed in Urban Areas ........................................................................................................................................... 57 Table 4.2: Distribution of Population by Activity Status in Urban Areas ....................................... 60 Table 4.3: Ethnic Groups in Sampled Regions in Urban Counties ................................................. 64 Table 4.4: Distribution of Population by Highest Level of Education Completed in Rural Areas ............................................................................................................................................ 66 Table 4.5: Distribution of Population by Economic Status in Rural Areas .................................... 70 Table 5.1: Overall Allocation and Actual Expenditure from 2003/04—2006/07 (Ks. Millions) ........................................................................................................................................... 76 Table 5.2: Policy documents that provides for policy intervention in the area of demography ................................................................................................................................................................. 77 LIST OF FIGURES Figure 2.1: Projected population in Counties in Rift Valley Region ................................................ 17 Figure 2.2: Projected 10-year population growth (2020-2030) in Counties in Rift Valley Region..................................................................................................................................................... 17 Figure 2.3: Projected population in Counties in Coastal Region .................................................... 18 Figure 2.4: Projected 10-year population growth (2020-2030) in Counties in Coastal Region ... 19 Figure 2.5: Projected population in Counties in North Eastern Region ........................................ 20 Figure 2.6: Projected 10-year population growth (2020-2030) in Counties in North Eastern Region..................................................................................................................................................... 20 Figure 2.7: Projected population in Counties in Eastern Region .................................................... 21 Figure 2.8: Projected 10-year population growth (2020-2030) in Counties in Eastern Region... 22 Figure 2.9: Projected population in Counties in Central Region .................................................... 23 Figure 2.10: Projected 10-year population growth (2020-2030) in Counties in Central Region . 23 Figure 2.11: Projected population in Counties in Western Region ................................................ 24 Figure 2.12: Projected 10-year population growth (2020-2030) in Counties in Western Region ..................................................................................................................................... 25 Figure 2.13: Projected population in Counties in Nyanza Region .................................................. 26 Figure 2.14: Projected 10-year population growth (2020-2030) in Nyanza Region ..................... 26 Figure 3.1: Distribution of Population’s Level of Education in Nairobi .......................................... 33 Figure 3.2: Distribution of Population’s Level of Education in Mombasa ..................................... 33 Figure 3.3: Distribution of Population’s Level of Education in Kisumu ......................................... 34 Figure 3.4: Distribution of Population’s Level of Education in Nakuru .......................................... 34 Figure 3.5: Distribution of Employed Population versus Unemployed Population in Nairobi ... 36 Figure 3.6: Distribution of Employed Population versus Unemployed Population in Mombasa ............................................................................................................................................... 36 Figure 3.7: Distribution of Employed Population versus Unemployed
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