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Sea!Level!Rise!In!The!Pacific!Northwest!And! Northern!California! ! 2018! !

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Sea!Level!Rise!In!The!Pacific!Northwest!And! Northern!California! ! 2018! ! ! ! ! ! Available!Science!Assessment!Process!(ASAP):!! Sea!Level!Rise!in!the!Pacific!Northwest!and! Northern!California! ! 2018! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! !! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! Cover!photos!(LBR)! Edmonds,(Washington((KJRSeattle(via(Wikimedia(Commons)( Whidbey(Island,(Puget(Sound((Hugh(Shipman,(Washington(Department(of(Ecology)( Nestucca(Bay(National(Wildlife(Refuge,(Oregon((Roy(W.(Lowe,(U.S.(Fish(and(Wildlife(Service)( Lanphere(Dunes,(Humboldt(Bay((Andrea(Pickart,(U.S.(Fish(and(Wildlife(Service)( !! ! ! Available!Science!Assessment!Process!(ASAP):!! Sea!Level!Rise!in!the!Pacific!Northwest!and! Northern!California! ! ! 2018! ! Final!Report! ! ! ! EcoAdapt!! ! ! ! ! ! ! Institute!for!Natural!Resources! PO!Box!11195!! ! ! ! ! ! 234!Strand!Hall! Bainbridge!Island,!WA!98110!! ! ! ! Corvallis,!OR!97331! ! ( For(more(information(about(this(report,(please(contact(Rachel(M.(Gregg(([email protected])( or(Lisa(Gaines(([email protected]).(( ( ! ! Recommended!Citation! Gregg(RM,(Reynier(W,(Gaines(LJ,(Behan(J((editors).(2018.(Available(Science(Assessment(Process( (ASAP):(Sea(Level(Rise(in(the(Pacific(Northwest(and(Northern(California.(Report(to(the(Northwest( Climate(Adaptation(Science(Center.(EcoAdapt((Bainbridge(Island,(WA)(and(the(Institute(for( Natural(Resources((Corvallis,(OR).( ( ( ! Project!Team! Rachel(M.(Gregg( CoVPI,(EcoAdapt( Lisa(Gaines( ( CoVPI,(Institute(for(Natural(Resources( Whitney(Reynier( EcoAdapt( Jeff(Behan( ( Institute(for(Natural(Resources( ( Scientific!Expert!Panel! Karen(Thorne( ( USGS(Western(Ecological(Research(Station( Hugh(Shipman(( Washington(Department(of(Ecology( Laura(Brophy( ( Oregon(State(University(Institute(of(Applied(Ecology( Eric(Grossman(( USGS(Pacific(Coastal(and(Marine(Science(Center( Peter(Ruggiero( Oregon(State(University(College(of(Earth,(Ocean,(and(Atmospheric(Sciences( Nate(Wood( ( USGS(Western(Geographic(Science(Center( ! Acknowledgements! This(work(would(not(have(been(possible(without(the(active(participation(of(the(Scientific(EXpert( Panel,(and(the(managers(and(scientists(who(participated(in(and(shared(their(eXpertise(through( interviews(and(workshops.(Thank(you(to(Gustavo(Bisbal((Northwest(Climate(Adaptation(Science( Center)(and(Mary(Mahaffy((North(Pacific(Landscape(Conservation(Cooperative)(for(providing( financial(support(and(project(guidance.(We(are(also(grateful(to(Nicole(DeCrappeo((U.S.(Geological( Survey)(and(Laura(Hilberg((EcoAdapt)(for(providing(writing(and(editing(support.( ( ( ! Table!of!Contents! Executive!Summary!....................................................................................................................!8( Introduction!.............................................................................................................................!11( Project(Approach(........................................................................................................................................(11( Purpose(and(Organization(of(Report(..........................................................................................................(12( 1.!Project!Context!.....................................................................................................................!13( Regional(Shoreline(Descriptions(.....................................................................................................................(13( Puget(Sound((includes(San(Juan(Islands)(....................................................................................................(13( Strait(of(Juan(de(Fuca(.................................................................................................................................(13( Outer(Coast(of(Washington(........................................................................................................................(14( Oregon(Coast(.............................................................................................................................................(15( Northern(California(Coast(..........................................................................................................................(15( Climate(Change(and(Sea(Level(Rise(................................................................................................................(16( Sea(Level(Rise(Trends(and(Projections(........................................................................................................(17( Sea(Level(Rise(Impacts(...............................................................................................................................(19( 2.!Sea!Level!Rise!Adaptation!.....................................................................................................!22( Identifying(Sea(Level(Rise(Adaptation(Actions(...............................................................................................(22( Sea(Level(Rise(Adaptation(Approaches(..........................................................................................................(29( Protection(Strategies(..................................................................................................................................(30( Accommodation(Strategies(........................................................................................................................(36( Retreat(Strategies(......................................................................................................................................(39( Avoidance(Strategies(..................................................................................................................................(40( Other(Strategies(.........................................................................................................................................(42( Gray(Literature(Content(Analysis(...................................................................................................................(42( Coastal(Managers’(Interviews(........................................................................................................................(45( Comparison:(Gray(Literature(and(Interview(Findings(.....................................................................................(48( Discussion(.......................................................................................................................................................(49( Conclusion(......................................................................................................................................................(50( 3.!Systematic!Mapping!.............................................................................................................!51( Systematic(Literature(Search(Protocol(...........................................................................................................(51( Scientific(Expert(Panel(Workshop(..................................................................................................................(53( Supplementary(Searching(..............................................................................................................................(55( Responses(to(Review(Questions(.....................................................................................................................(58( Overarching(Observations(..........................................................................................................................(58( Specific(Responses(......................................................................................................................................(59( Conclusion(......................................................................................................................................................(69( 4.!Collaborative!ScientistsBManagers’!Workshops!.....................................................................!70( Goals(and(Objectives(......................................................................................................................................(70( Discussion(1.(Sea(Level(Rise(Adaptation(Scientific(Consensus(.......................................................................(70( Discussion(2.(Sea(Level(Rise(Planning(and(Management(...............................................................................(72( Discussion(3.(Critical(Research(and(Management(Questions(.........................................................................(77( 5.!Concluding!Thoughts!............................................................................................................!78( Literature!Cited!........................................................................................................................!80( Appendix!A.!Catalog!of!Gray!Literature!from!Phase!2!...............................................................!92( ! Appendix!B.!Systematic!Review!Methods!and!Search!Protocol!.................................................!93( Systematic(Review(..........................................................................................................................................(93( Literature(Search(Protocol(.............................................................................................................................(94( Appendix!C.!Catalog!of!Literature!Reviewed!in!Systematic!Mapping!.........................................!98( Appendix!D.!ScientistsBManagers’!Workshop!Participant!Lists!..................................................!99( Seattle,(Washington(.......................................................................................................................................(99(
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