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Trends in International Mathematics and Science Study (TIMSS) 2019: National Report for England Research Report

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Trends in International Mathematics and Science Study (TIMSS) 2019: National report for England Research report December 2020 Authors: Mary Richardson, Tina Isaacs, Iain Barnes, Christina Swensson, David Wilkinson, Jennie Golding – UCL Institute of Education Contents Acknowledgements 3 About the research team 4 Executive summary 5 Chapter 1. Introduction 21 Chapter 2. TIMSS assessment approach and curriculum match 31 Chapter 3. Overall performance in mathematics 37 Chapter 4. Overall performance in science 61 Chapter 5. Mathematics and science performance in subject and cognitive domains 85 Chapter 6. Mathematics and science performance by pupil characteristics 101 Chapter 7. Pupil attitudes and aspirations in mathematics and science 123 Chapter 8. School environment and resources 153 Chapter 9. Teachers and teaching 177 Chapter 10. Home environment 209 Chapter 11. Conclusion 231 Appendix A: Background 235 Appendix B: Methodology 239 Appendix C: TIMSS 2019 international benchmarks 245 Appendix D: Interpreting benchmark charts 251 Appendix E: List of figures 254 Appendix F: List of tables 261 2 Acknowledgements This report represents a global team effort. Thank you to colleagues at the International Association for the Evaluation of Educational Achievement (IEA), the International Study Centre at Boston College, Statistics Canada and the Educational Testing Service for their support and guidance throughout the project. We are grateful to the team at the Department for Education (England) that oversaw the work, in particular Naomi Maguire, Ali Pareas, Sarah Cross and David Charlton. The team at Pearson managed the process of recruiting schools, collecting and checking the data as well as the production of reports for participating schools. We are therefore very grateful to Dr Grace Grima, Mish Mohan, Kate Miller and Dr Alistair Hooper for guiding all of these aspects of the work. We would also like to thank Jane McNeill and Dianne Goring who supervised and trained the teams of markers at Pearson. At UCL Institute of Education we are grateful to our colleagues Professor John Jerrim and Professor Michael Reiss for their expert feedback on the final report. Sincere thanks to Laura Morley of BulletPROOF Editorial for her outstanding proofreading and editing guidance in the final stages of report writing. The work in Chapter 6 of this report was produced using statistical data from ONS. The use of the ONS statistical data in this work does not imply the endorsement of the ONS in relation to the interpretation or analysis of the statistical data. This work uses research datasets which may not exactly reproduce National Statistics aggregates. Finally, we are especially grateful to the staff and students at the participating schools for their time and effort in administering and completing the assessments and questionnaires. 3 About the research team The Principal Investigators are based at UCL institute of Education in the Department of Curriculum Pedagogy and Assessment. Dr Mary Richardson, Associate Professor of Educational Assessment, and Dr Tina Isaacs, Honorary Associate Professor of Educational Assessment oversaw all aspects of the research analysis, reporting and dissemination. Dr Jennie Golding, Associate Professor of Mathematics provided invaluable guidance on mathematics curriculums and feedback during drafting of the report. David Wilkinson led the statistical analysis for the report. David is a Principal Research Fellow in the Social Research Institute at UCL. Dr Iain Barnes supported the report writing and analysis. Christina Swensson provided project management throughout and led on the report writing and dissemination of the project. Iain and Christina are both associates of the UCL Centre for Educational Leadership. 4 Executive summary What is TIMSS? The Trends in International Mathematics and Science Study (TIMSS) is an international comparison study of mathematics and science performance, organised by the International Association for the Evaluation of Educational Achievement (IEA). The study’s main purpose is to provide participating countries with internationally comparable data on the performance and attitudes of 9–10-year olds (year 5) and 13–14-year olds (year 9) in mathematics and science, together with comparisons of the curriculum and the teaching of these subjects in primary and secondary schools. Sixty-four countries and benchmarking systems participated in TIMSS 2019. England has participated in every TIMSS since the study was first carried out in 1995 and in each subsequent 4-yearly cycle1, and the results provide valuable information on trends in England’s absolute and relative performance over 24 years. In England, testing was conducted with pupils in years 5 and 9 between February and June 2019, with a sample of 9,595 pupils across 368 schools. England participated in the new eTIMSS format in which the majority of pupils took the tests on tablets, complemented by a paper-based bridging study2 where a smaller sample of pupils were recruited to sit a paper-based test that was used to link the eTIMSS assessment to the historic TIMSS assessment scale. Just over half of the participating countries took part in eTIMSS. England’s year 5 cohort started school in 2013 and had their key stage 1 assessments in the summer of 20163. The year 9 cohort started primary school in 2009 and secondary school in 2016, and will take their GCSEs in summer 2021. This Trends in International Mathematics and Science Study (TIMSS) 2019: National Report for England focuses on comparisons of England’s pupils’ performance and their experiences of mathematics and science teaching compared to the highest-performing countries, other English-speaking countries and a selection of other European countries. The TIMSS International Report 2019 offers comparisons across all participating countries4. 1 Only year 9 pupils participated in TIMSS assessments in 1999 internationally. 2 6,761 pupils in 275 schools participated in eTIMSS in England in 2019; 2,834 pupils in 93 schools participated in the bridging study. 3 See https://www.gov.uk/guidance/2016-key-stage-1-assessment-and-reporting-arrangements- ara/section-8-teacher-assessment 4 See http://timssandpirls.bc.edu/timss2019/international-results/ 5 How does the mathematics and science performance of pupils in England compare internationally? In 2019, pupils in England performed, on average, significantly5 above the TIMSS centrepoint (500) in mathematics and science in both years 5 and 9. Compared to 2015, England’s performance significantly improved in mathematics at year 5, decreased significantly in science at year 9, and remained stable in mathematics at year 9 and science at year 5. Between 1995 and 2019, the mathematics performance of year 5 and year 9 pupils in England has improved. The performance of year 5 pupils in science has been more varied, but has also seen some significant improvement over the 24-year period. In year 9, the science performance of pupils in England has remained broadly static over the same period until the decrease in 2019. England’s performance in 2019 placed it behind the highest-performing group of countries, but significantly above the TIMSS centrepoint in mathematics and science in both years 5 and 9. Overall, as in previous years, 5 East Asian countries that participated in TIMSS (Chinese Taipei, Hong Kong6, Japan, the Republic of Korea and Singapore), together with Russia, performed strongly across both subjects and year groups, although there were other countries that performed highly in 1 or more areas. 5 Where the term ‘significant’ is used this refers to statistical significance. 6 Hong Kong’s pupils’ scores in year 9 science decreased significantly in 2019. 6 Mathematics – year 5 The trend in England’s year 5 mathematics score is one of improvement over time, from significantly below the TIMSS centrepoint in 1995 to significantly above it in 20197. Figure 1 shows that the performance of pupils in England has increased in each consecutive TIMSS cycle. The increase in England’s average score (10 scale points) between 2015 and 2019 means year 5 pupils’ performance in 2019 was significantly above that scored in all previous TIMSS cycles. Figure 1: Trend in average year 5 mathematics score (England) Source: TIMSS 2019 Note 1: The 1999 cycle of TIMSS included only year 9 pupils, represented by the dashed line. Note 2: The 1995 score is an average across the performance of year 4 and year 5 pupils as the 1995 cycle assessed pupils across both year groups. Note 3: Response rates for TIMSS in England were relatively low in 1995 and 2003. Note 4: Mathematics scores that represent a significant increase on the previous TIMSS cycle are marked with an asterisk (*). Seven countries scored significantly higher than England in 2019, 1 country scored at broadly the same level and 49 countries scored significantly lower. The same 7 countries also performed significantly above England in 2015: the 5 East Asian countries (Chinese Taipei, Hong Kong, Japan, the Republic of Korea and Singapore), Northern Ireland and Russia. 7 The 1995 score was an average across the performance of year 4 and year 5 pupils. 7 Figure 2 shows that between 1995 and 2019 there has been a significant improvement in the proportion of year 5 pupils in England reaching the advanced international benchmark and the high and intermediate benchmarks or above8. The proportion of year 5 pupils reaching the low international benchmark or above remained the same in 2019 as 2015, having improved significantly between 2011 and 2015. Figure 2: Trend in the percentage of year 5 pupils reaching each of the TIMSS international benchmarks in mathematics (England) International median 7 34 71 92 2019 England 2019 21 53 83 96 England 2015 17 49 80 96 England 2011 18 49 78 93 England 2007 16 48 79 94 England 2003 14 43 75 93 England 1995 7 24 54 82 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% Percentage of pupils Advanced High Intermediate Low Source: TIMSS 2019. Note 1: The 1999 cycle of TIMSS included only year 9 pupils.
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