February 2019 This is the ninth update shedding light on what catches the eye in and around Westminster and its satellite community of advisers, think tanks and hangers on. Some of this may have been captured in the headlines and other stuff. Views my own but an acknowledgement that everyone is working hard in a challenging political environment and bad- tempered world….and one last thing, with literally weeks to go to the designated EU leaving date, this edition can’t possibly be a Brexit-free zone. Lisa Hayley-Jones Director, Political and Business Relations BVCA Key Political Dates Theresa May has overtaken Spencer Perceval (the only British Prime Minister in history to be assassinated) to become the 36th longest-serving Prime Minister. Theresa May needs to reach 28th May to surpass Gordon Brown’s record and the following day to outlast the Duke of Wellington. This week was meant to be a Westminster recess, a chance for MPs to take a breather before the final countdown to Brexit Day on 29 March. The failure of the Prime Minister to reach a deal on Brexit that is acceptable to MPs forced the government to cancel their scheduled February break. Instead, activity in the House of Commons has been dominated by Statutory Instruments (SIs). These give Ministers the power to change pre-existing laws before exit day. This week's SIs range from European Structural Funds to clinical medical trials. The Prime Minister has until next Wednesday 27 February to make progress before MPs get another shot at wresting control over the Brexit process away from the government. They would do this by voting through proposals that would force the Prime Minister to apply for an extension to Article 50 if she had failed to get a withdrawal agreement through the House of Commons by the middle of March. Many Tory MPs now expect a ‘technical extension’ to Article 50 to be agreed — signed off at the European Council on 21 March — which will give the UK more time, but still mean Brexit is implemented before the May 2 UK local elections. Spring Statement The date of the Spring Statement is confirmed for 13 March. The Statement will contain a Government response to the forecast from the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR). The Chancellor will publish the Statement two weeks before the current Brexit date. Should the UK leave the European Union in a no-deal scenario, the Chancellor could hold an emergency mini-budget in April. Commons Countdown The House of Commons has 20 sitting days until Brexit Latest Polling The latest mega-YouGov polling of 40,000 voters has forecast individual constituency results giving the Conservatives a five point lead over Labour, but only gaining four seats. Rumours have swirled around Westminster of another snap general election as part of plans to force through a Brexit deal. The latest YouGov MRP constituency modelling, the same method which delivered near-perfect projections of a hung parliament in the 2017 general election, reveals that, if an election were to be called, as it stands the Conservatives would be unlikely to gain enough seats to give Theresa May an effective majority. The polling was carried out between 2 and 7 February. The most likely outcome according to this model is that the Conservatives would win 321 seats – just four more than their current total. Because Sinn Fein MPs do not take their seats, this figure would probably give the Conservatives a working majority, but would not be enough to offset the scores of Conservative rebels the PM needs to overcome. Doesn’t sound like there is anything to be gained from another snap election to me… Vote Share In terms of vote share, both the Conservatives and Labour see sizeable slumps, with the Conservatives dropping 4%, falling from their 43% figure in 2017 to 39%m and Labour lose almost 7%, dropping from 41% to 34%. The smaller parties appear to be the main beneficiaries, although part of this increase is because the model allowed respondents to support UKIP and the Greens in all constituencies compared to the 2017 election when the parties only put up candidates in some seats. The Liberal Democrats would find themselves netting 11% of votes cast, compared to 8% at the last general election. Likewise UKIP would experience an increase from 2% to 5% and the Greens from 2% to 4%. The Scottish and Welsh nationalists meanwhile see their vote shares remain essentially static. Other Polling Pollsters Survation and YouGov were quick out of the traps with snap surveys on the new Independent Group of (so far) ex-Labour MPs (more on this below). According to Survation, the Conservatives are on 38%, 12 points clear of Labour who have fallen back to 26%, with ‘a new centrist party opposed to Brexit’ on 14%. The Lib Dems are on 7%. In the Times, YouGov finds a third of people who voted Labour at the last election backed the MPs’ decision to quit the Labour party. Seven points ahead of the Lib Dems for a ‘party’ that doesn’t exist yet is quite something… When it comes to who would make the best Prime Minister, the latest poll shows 40% of people prefer Theresa May while 19% favour Jeremy Corbyn. A further 39% answered ‘not sure.’ Government Appointments As outlined in the last Westminster Watch, the new Health Minister Baroness Blackwood, at 39, becomes the youngest member of the House of Lords, and the only member under 40. Nigel Huddleston MP has been appointed as Vice Chairman of the Conservative Party with responsibility for the Young Conservatives movement. He is 48 years old. Government Departments With the Brexit date looming ever closer, Government departments are busily preparing for our EU departure with SIs (statutory instruments). A recent SI from the Department for Business, Energy & Industrial Strategy (BEIS) is 636 pages long and weighs (apparently) two and half kilos and covers 11 subjects, which in normal times would be released separately. House of Commons Appointment Speaker John Bercow has announced the appointment of John Benger as the new House of Commons clerk. He replaces Sir David Natzler, who announced he was retiring in November, as the chief adviser to the Commons on constitutional and procedural matters. Joining the 21st Century Labour MP Tulip Siddiq become the first-ever MP to vote by proxy, after strict Commons rules were finally changed. Somewhat ironically — given the family-friendly subject matter — it was well after 10pm when the Commons agreed unanimously to trial a one-year scheme allowing MPs on maternity or paternity leave to give their vote to a colleague to cast in their stead. Conservative Splitters Along with 8 ex Labour MPs so far three ex Conservative MPs have joined the new Independent Group. Health Select Chairwoman Sarah Wollaston (MP for Totnes), Heidi Allen (MP for South Cambridgeshire), and former Business Minister Anna Souby (MP for Broxtowe) crossed the floor of the House on Wednesday to sit in the new group. Labour Land Magnificent 7 – Now 11 Seven Labour MPs quit the party earlier this week to form a new ‘Independent Group’. Chuka Umunna, Luciana Berger, Chris Leslie, Angela Smith, Mike Gapes, Gavin Shuker and Ann Coffey announced their decision to leave the Labour Party on Tuesday. Chuka Umunna called on other MPs to join the party in “building a new politics”. Umunna, the notional leader of the new Independent Group of MPs, said he hoped it would have evolved into a proper political party “by the end of the year”. Joan Ryan is the latest Labour MP to join the IG together with three ex Conservatives, Anna Souby (MP for Broxtowe), Sarah Wollaston (MP for Totnes) and Heidi Allen (MP for South Cambridgeshire) The defection of three Conservatives makes the Parliamentary arithmetic even tighter for Theresa May. With the DUP she would have the support of 324 MPs. 322 are needed to command a majority, excluding the Speaker and seven Sinn Fein MPs who don’t take their seats. Should the new Independent Group manage to get to 36 MPs it would become the third biggest grouping in the House of Commons and could take the SNP’s questions at Prime Minister’s Questions. Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn said he was “disappointed that these MPs have felt unable to continue to work together”. Shadow chancellor John McDonnell called on the seven MPs to do the “honourable thing” and stand down to fight by-elections, but later said Labour needs to carry out a "mammoth listening exercise" to address criticisms from its own MPs. Labour's deputy leader, Tom Watson, said it was "a moment for regret and reflection, not for a mood of anger or a tone of triumph", and time for the party to "broaden out so that all the members of our broad church feel welcome in our congregation". NEC Jeremy Corbyn has appointed his close ally Diane Abbott MP to Labour’s ruling National Executive Committee following the resignation of former Shadow Cabinet Minister Kate Osamor. Some shadow Cabinet ministers are unhappy at not being consulted on the decision. Living Wage Promise The lowest paid workers in the UK would get a pay rise of more than £2,600 annually under a Labour government. Jeremy Corbyn has set out policies which would see a raise in the living wage to £10 an hour by 2020. MP Reselection to Begin Jennie Formby, Labour's general secretary, is expected to start the process of the mandatory reselection for all the party's MPs in March. Labour Veteran Flynn dies Labour MP Paul Flynn has died at the age of 84.