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Home , Ann Coffey, Chuka Umunna, Derek Hatton, Gavin Shuker, Heidi Allen, Joan Ryan

February 2019

This is the ninth update shedding light on what catches the eye in and around Westminster and its satellite community of advisers, think tanks and hangers on.

Some of this may have been captured in the headlines and other stuff. Views my own but an acknowledgement that everyone is working hard in a challenging political environment and bad- tempered world….and one last thing, with literally weeks to go to the designated EU leaving date, this edition can’t possibly be a -free zone.

Lisa Hayley-Jones Director, Political and Business Relations BVCA

Key Political Dates

Theresa May has overtaken Spencer Perceval (the only British Prime Minister in history to be assassinated) to become the 36th longest-serving Prime Minister. needs to reach 28th May to surpass ’s record and the following day to outlast the Duke of Wellington.

This week was meant to be a Westminster recess, a chance for MPs to take a breather before the final countdown to Brexit Day on 29 March. The failure of the Prime Minister to reach a deal on Brexit that is acceptable to MPs forced the government to cancel their scheduled February break. Instead, activity in the House of Commons has been dominated by Statutory Instruments (SIs). These give Ministers the power to change pre-existing laws before exit day. This week's SIs range from European Structural Funds to clinical medical trials.

The Prime Minister has until next Wednesday 27 February to make progress before MPs get another shot at wresting control over the Brexit process away from the government. They would do this by voting through proposals that would force the Prime Minister to apply for an extension to Article 50 if she had failed to get a withdrawal agreement through the House of Commons by the middle of March. Many Tory MPs now expect a ‘technical extension’ to Article 50 to be agreed — signed off at the European Council on 21 March — which will give the UK more time, but still mean Brexit is implemented before the May 2 UK local elections.

Spring Statement

The date of the Spring Statement is confirmed for 13 March.

The Statement will contain a Government response to the forecast from the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR). The Chancellor will publish the Statement two weeks before the current Brexit date. Should the UK leave the in a no-deal scenario, the Chancellor could hold an emergency mini-budget in April.

Commons Countdown

The House of Commons has 20 sitting days until Brexit

Latest Polling

The latest mega-YouGov polling of 40,000 voters has forecast individual constituency results giving the Conservatives a five point lead over Labour, but only gaining four seats. Rumours have swirled around Westminster of another snap general election as part of plans to force through a Brexit deal.

The latest YouGov MRP constituency modelling, the same method which delivered near-perfect projections of a hung parliament in the 2017 general election, reveals that, if an election were to be called, as it stands the Conservatives would be unlikely to gain enough seats to give Theresa May an effective majority. The polling was carried out between 2 and 7 February.

The most likely outcome according to this model is that the Conservatives would win 321 seats – just four more than their current total. Because Sinn Fein MPs do not take their seats, this figure would probably give the Conservatives a working majority, but would not be enough to offset the scores of Conservative rebels the PM needs to overcome.

Doesn’t sound like there is anything to be gained from another snap election to me…

Vote Share In terms of vote share, both the Conservatives and Labour see sizeable slumps, with the Conservatives dropping 4%, falling from their 43% figure in 2017 to 39%m and Labour lose almost 7%, dropping from 41% to 34%.

The smaller parties appear to be the main beneficiaries, although part of this increase is because the model allowed respondents to support UKIP and the Greens in all constituencies compared to the 2017 election when the parties only put up candidates in some seats.

The Liberal Democrats would find themselves netting 11% of votes cast, compared to 8% at the last general election. Likewise UKIP would experience an increase from 2% to 5% and the Greens from 2% to 4%. The Scottish and Welsh nationalists meanwhile see their vote shares remain essentially static.

Other Polling

Pollsters Survation and YouGov were quick out of the traps with snap surveys on the new Independent Group of (so far) ex-Labour MPs (more on this below). According to Survation, the Conservatives are on 38%, 12 points clear of Labour who have fallen back to 26%, with ‘a new centrist party opposed to Brexit’ on 14%. The Lib Dems are on 7%.

In , YouGov finds a third of people who voted Labour at the last election backed the MPs’ decision to quit the Labour party.

Seven points ahead of the Lib Dems for a ‘party’ that doesn’t exist yet is quite something…

When it comes to who would make the best Prime Minister, the latest poll shows 40% of people prefer Theresa May while 19% favour . A further 39% answered ‘not sure.’

Government Appointments

As outlined in the last Westminster Watch, the new Health Minister Baroness Blackwood, at 39, becomes the youngest member of the , and the only member under 40.

Nigel Huddleston MP has been appointed as Vice Chairman of the Conservative Party with responsibility for the Young Conservatives movement. He is 48 years old.

Government Departments

With the Brexit date looming ever closer, Government departments are busily preparing for our EU departure with SIs (statutory instruments). A recent SI from the Department for Business, Energy & Industrial Strategy (BEIS) is 636 pages long and weighs (apparently) two and half kilos and covers 11 subjects, which in normal times would be released separately.

House of Commons Appointment

Speaker has announced the appointment of John Benger as the new House of Commons clerk. He replaces Sir David Natzler, who announced he was retiring in November, as the chief adviser to the Commons on constitutional and procedural matters.

Joining the 21st Century

Labour MP Tulip Siddiq become the first-ever MP to vote by proxy, after strict Commons rules were finally changed. Somewhat ironically — given the family-friendly subject matter — it was well after 10pm when the Commons agreed unanimously to trial a one-year scheme allowing MPs on maternity or paternity leave to give their vote to a colleague to cast in their stead.

Conservative Splitters

Along with 8 ex Labour MPs so far three ex Conservative MPs have joined the new Independent Group. Health Select Chairwoman (MP for ), (MP for South ), and former Business Minister Anna Souby (MP for Broxtowe) crossed the floor of the House on Wednesday to sit in the new group.

Labour Land

Magnificent 7 – Now 11 Seven Labour MPs quit the party earlier this week to form a new ‘Independent Group’. , , , Angela Smith, , and announced their decision to leave the Labour Party on Tuesday. Chuka Umunna called on other MPs to join the party in “building a new politics”. Umunna, the notional leader of the new Independent Group of MPs, said he hoped it would have evolved into a proper political party “by the end of the year”.

Joan Ryan is the latest Labour MP to join the IG together with three ex Conservatives, Anna Souby (MP for Broxtowe), Sarah Wollaston (MP for Totnes) and Heidi Allen (MP for South Cambridgeshire)

The defection of three Conservatives makes the Parliamentary arithmetic even tighter for Theresa May. With the DUP she would have the support of 324 MPs.

322 are needed to command a majority, excluding the Speaker and seven Sinn Fein MPs who don’t take their seats.

Should the new Independent Group manage to get to 36 MPs it would become the third biggest grouping in the House of Commons and could take the SNP’s questions at Prime Minister’s Questions.

Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn said he was “disappointed that these MPs have felt unable to continue to work together”. Shadow chancellor John McDonnell called on the seven MPs to do the “honourable thing” and stand down to fight by-elections, but later said Labour needs to carry out a "mammoth listening exercise" to address criticisms from its own MPs.

Labour's deputy leader, Tom Watson, said it was "a moment for regret and reflection, not for a mood of anger or a tone of triumph", and time for the party to "broaden out so that all the members of our broad church feel welcome in our congregation".

NEC

Jeremy Corbyn has appointed his close ally MP to Labour’s ruling National Executive Committee following the resignation of former Shadow Cabinet Minister . Some shadow Cabinet ministers are unhappy at not being consulted on the decision.

Living Wage Promise The lowest paid workers in the UK would get a pay rise of more than £2,600 annually under a Labour government. Jeremy Corbyn has set out policies which would see a raise in the living wage to £10 an hour by 2020.

MP Reselection to Begin

Jennie Formby, Labour's general secretary, is expected to start the process of the mandatory reselection for all the party's MPs in March.

Labour Veteran Flynn dies

Labour MP Paul Flynn has died at the age of 84. Flynn was MP for Newport West since 1987. There will now be a by-election.

With the death of Flynn and seven breakaway MPs, there are now 247 Labour MPs in the House of Commons.

Ex-Militant Back in the Fold – Or Not With the party reeling from its first split for a generation, news leaked out that Derek Hatton, the firebrand former deputy leader of Liverpool Council, has been readmitted to Labour three decades after being expelled for being part of the left-wing group. Latest news is, after two days, his Labour membership has been suspended.

Membership Downturn Current Labour Party membership stands at around 512,000, down from the 575,000 reported by LabourList after the 2017 general election.

Brexit Seat Loss A affiliated with the Labour party has claimed that Jeremy Corbyn’s party could lose an additional 45 seats in a snap election if it fails to take an anti-Brexit position. The report was drawn up by the transport union TSSA.

Another Labour Leaver Barrow MP John Woodcock has announced he will stand against a Labour candidate in the next election. Woodcock resigned from Labour in 2018.

Referendum Vote Backlash A recent YouGov poll shows that among Labour voters 73% think Britain was wrong to , with just 19% saying it was right. Among Conservative voters it is 68%/23% in favour. So while Theresa May has the backing of her voters in pushing ahead with Brexit, Jeremy Corbyn is swimming against the party tide.

Taking a closer look at the data and things aren't looking too good for the Labour leader. Since the 2017 election the percentage of Remain voters who think Corbyn would make the best PM has halved from 60% to about 30%. Among Leavers, Corbyn has also halved, down from 22% to just 11%.

Among people who voted Labour in 2017, just 46% say he is up to the job, down from 81% on the day of the general election. For comparison, Theresa May is down among Leavers from 62% to 60%, and up among Remainers from 22% to 28%.

SNP

Alex Salmond Trial Former SNP leader, Alex Salmond, has been charged with a string of criminal offences including sexual assault and attempted rape. Salmond has said that he was "innocent of any criminality" and vowed to defend himself "to the utmost". It sets the scene for the most extraordinary trial, perhaps the biggest political court case since that of Jeremy Thorpe, the former Liberal leader.

New Brexit Party

The new breakaway group of ex-Labour and Conservative MPs, Group, technically doesn’t exist as its party name has not yet been registered with the Electoral Commission. However, the new Brexit Party has and, apparently, it has attracted 100,000 supporters in nine days.

The new Brexit party, which HAS been formally recognised by the Electoral Commission, is now an official organisation which will allow it to field candidates at elections. Nigel Farage, the former UKIP leader who is supporting the party, said "the engine is running" and he stood "ready for battle" to fight the Tories and Labour if European Parliament elections are held on May 23.

Brexit Sweeps the Board

The January Populus round-up showed the extent to which Brexit is wiping out mentions of everything else. While other stories have made the front pages and top of the news bulletins, they were either squeezed out by Brexit, or people are switching off from news altogether.

Somehow think February might be a repeat of this…

Think Tank Publications

IPPR Publication on State Aid Rules and Brexit The EU’s policy of state aid control has become a focal point of debate since the UK’s 2016 referendum. Some proponents of leaving the EU have argued that, freed from the constraints of EU rules on state aid, the UK would have more flexibility to embark on an active industrial policy; opponents have countered that this overstates the stringency of the rules. This short briefing report from the IPPR seeks to assess these claims, exploring the role of state aid rules in the EU and how these might change under different Brexit scenarios.

Parliamentary Progress of Legislation Introduced to Implement Brexit With less than seven weeks to go, the Government needs to pass six bills to be ready for a no deal: Trade Bill, Agriculture Bill, Fisheries Bill, Immigration Bill, Healthcare Bill, Financial Services Bill (as outlined in previous editions of Westminster Watch). There is still some progress to be made…..

BVCA Engagement Across the Parties

I attended a Working Lunch at the European Parliament in Brussels hosted by Ashley Fox MEP, Leader of the Conservatives in the European Parliament, with Syed Kamall MEP and David Campbell Bannerman MEP. There was also a roundtable with UK representatives to the EU, Gian Marco Currado, Counsellor for Social Affairs and Environment, and Simon Argyle, Counsellor for Competitiveness and Markets, on the UK’s future relationship with the EU. In addition, there was a discussion with Stefaan De Rynck, Senior Advisor of Michel Barnier, the Chief EU Negotiator for Brexit for the European Commission.

I also attended a keynote speech given by Labour Shadow Secretary of State for the Foreign and Commonwealth Office, Rt Hon MP. Entitled ‘The Foreign Office under Labour’ she outlined how a Labour government would increase FCO resources, rebuild civil service moral, rebalance UK values and commercial interests, and seek to pursue objectives through multi- lateral goals and key alliances.

I attended the launch of a proposed comprehensive trade agreement between the EU and the UK. Speakers included former Brexit Secretary Rt Hon David Davis MP, former Trade Minister MP, Barnabas Reynolds, Head of Global Financial Institutions at Shearman & Streling, and Shanker Singham, former trade negotiator.

I attended a discussion with Shadow Chancellor Rt Hon John McDonnell MP, which explored Labour’s Brexit position, the party’s manifesto pledges and its relationship with business. And at a Brexit roundtable, Rt Hon MP outlined his views on extending Article 50, potential splits in the two major parties and how he is working with cross-party MPs to influence the direction of the Government's Brexit plans. I also attended a panel debate focusing on ‘A long-term NHS plan for stability and reform’ with Lord Prior of Brampton, Chair of NHS .

I also attended a dinner with Secretary of State for , Rt Hon MP, and Chairman of the Conservative Party, Rt Hon MP.

Political Trivia

Which cabinet post has had the most holders since 2010?

Culture secretary: holders have included , , , John Whittingdale, Karen Bradley, and latest incumbent, .

Fast Law

Bloomberg's Robert Hutton has found that if it really wants to, Parliament can pass laws very quickly: "On September 1st 1939, Parliament passed 18 bills into law, despite not beginning its work until 6pm. One bill completed all of its House of Commons stages in just two minutes. The sitting finished just before midnight."

Thanks for reading. It’s really going to hot up over the next few weeks! Back soon…

Lisa Hayley-Jones Director, Political and Business Relations BVCA