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The Electric Vehicle Landscape Southeast Regional Transportation Electrification Workshop March 11 – 12, 2019 National Governors Association Center for Best Practices WIFI: Network: Hutton Meetings Password: nga19 #WeTheStates Welcome & Opening Remarks Sue Gander, Division Director, Environment, Energy & Transportation, National Governors Association #WeTheStates Energy, Environment & Transportation Division Focus Power Sector Modernization Resiliency Smarter States, State Energy Risk Assessment & Planning Smarter Communities Energy Policy Institute Tool and State Resilience Retreats Learning Lab Grid Emergency Exercises Grid Modernization Retreats Roadmap State/Utility Coordination Workshop Global Energy Solutions Summit Housing Resiliency Experts Roundtable Policy Academy Kick Off OUR TOP SKILLS Support Workingfor New for you Governors Technical Assistance Transportation Modernization Boot Camps and Webinars on Demand Traffic Safety Learning Labs Energy Advisors Research Electric Vehicle (EV) Regional Workshops Transportation Advisors Innovation Workshops Water Advisors Policy Memos Transportation Policy Institute Governors Guide to Energy Policy Consultations Energy Efficiency Nuclear Weapons Waste Water Policy Learning Network Lead By Example Workshop Federal Facilities Task Force Meeting Water Policy Institute Webinar Series Energy Efficiency Experts Roundtable Intergovernmental Meeting Governors Guide to Nuclear Weapons Delaware River Basin Retreats Energy Efficiency Roadmap for Governors Waste Cleanup The Electric Vehicle Landscape Patricio Portillo National Governors Association #WeTheStates Why are you here? 1.8% 1.6% 1.4% 1.2% 1.0% 0.8% 0.6% 0.4% 0.2% 0.0% 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 PHEV BEV Alliance of Automobile Manufacturers (2018). Advanced Technology Vehicles Sales Dashboard. Data compiled by the Alliance of Automobile Manufacturers using information provided by HIS Markit. Data last updated 11/5/2018. Retrieved 3/7/2018 from alliance.org/energy-environment/advanced-technology-vehicle-sales-dashboard/ Why are you here? 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 PHEV BEV All Other Cars Alliance of Automobile Manufacturers (2018). Advanced Technology Vehicles Sales Dashboard. Data compiled by the Alliance of Automobile Manufacturers using information provided by HIS Markit. Data last updated 11/5/2018. Retrieved 3/7/2018 from alliance.org/energy-environment/advanced-technology-vehicle-sales-dashboard/ Why are you here? U.S. Plug-in Electric Vehicle Sales by Model VW e-Golf 200 Volvo XC90 Volvo XC60 Volvo S90 Plug In 180 Toyota RAV4 EV Toyota Prius Prime Tesla Model X 160 Tesla Model S Tesla Model 3 Smart for Two EV 140 Smart ED Porsche Panamera S E-Hybrid Porsche Cayenne S E-Hybrid 120 Nissan LEAF Mitsubishi i-MiEV Mini Cooper Countryman Plug In 100 Mercedes S550 Plug In Mercedes GLE 550e Hybrid ThousandVehicles Chrysler Pacifica 80 Chevrolet Volt Chevrolet Spark Chevrolet Bolt Cadillac ELR 60 Cadillac CT6 BMW 7 Series Plug In BMW 5 Series Plug In 40 BMW 3 Series Plug In BMW X5 BMW i8 20 BMW i3 BMW Active E Audi A3 Plug In - 2017 Why are you here? 2017: $61,372 Why are you here? Technology adoption: • Static snapshot • Trend analysis! Monthly Sales of BEV + PHEV Alliance of Automobile Manufacturers (2018). Advanced Technology Vehicles Sales Dashboard. Data compiled by the Alliance of Automobile Manufacturers using information provided by HIS Markit. Data last updated 11/5/2018. Retrieved 3/7/2018 from alliance.org/energy-environment/advanced-technology-vehicle-sales-dashboard/ BEV + PHEV Light Duty Model Offerings 2008-2018 60 50 40 30 20 10 NUMBER OF MODELS NUMBER OF MODELS OFFERED 0 Electric Fueling Station Count 70 60 50 40 30 THOUSAND STATIONS THOUSAND 20 10 - Median BEV Range Breadth of AEV Ranges, MY 2011 and 2018 Median = 73 MY 2011 63 94 Median = 125 335 MY 2018 58 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 All-Electric Vehicle Ranges (Miles) Range Comparison with ICE Vehicles FOTW #1010, January 1, 2018: All-Electric Light Vehicle Ranges Can Exceed Those of Some Gasoline Light Vehicles (JANUARY 1, 2018). Retrieved 3/7/2018 from https://www.energy.gov/eere/vehicles/articles/fotw-1010-january-1-2018-all-electric-light-vehicle-ranges-can-exceed-those Vehicle Trips by Length (miles) 4.9% 4.9% 5.0% < 6 8.4% 6 - 10 11 - 15 16 - 20 17.3% 59.5% 21 - 30 > 30 U.S. Average Retail Fuel Prices $5.00 $4.50 $4.00 $3.50 $3.00 Gasoline $2.50 Diesel $2.00 CNG Cost per GGE Cost Electricity* $1.50 $1.00 $0.50 $0.00 Fuel Cost Savings FOTW #1033, June 11, 2018: Washington State Has the Greatest Fuel Cost Savings for an Electric Vehicle Versus a Gasoline Vehicle (JUNE 11, 2018). Retrieved 3/7/2018 from https://www.energy.gov/eere/vehicles/articles/fotw-1033-june-11-2018-washington-state-has-greatest-fuel-cost-savings Total Cost of Ownership by Drivetrain and Fuel Alternative Fuel Toolkit (2017). AFV Cost Calculator. An initiative by the Federal Highway Administration and Oregon Department of Transportation (2015-2018). Retrieved 3/7/2018 from http://altfueltoolkit.org/materials/afv-cost-calculator/ Battery Cost ($/kWh) Electrified Transportation Key Trends U.S EV SALES GROWTH VEHICLES SOLD IN 2017 OEM PLANS 40-70 million EVs by 2025 VEHICLE COSTS CUSTOMER CHOICE “RANGE ANXIETY” Record investment; VW Electrified Transportation Benefits Concerns Challenges • Lowering & shifting • Obsolescence risk • System stress emissions • Equity issues • Affordability • Electricity market • Impact on oil • Infrastructure benefits markets deployment • Minimizing • Revenue depletion • Cost considerations household • Resource constraints • Range anxiety expenditures • State & federal • Reducing petroleum incentives dependence Questions? Patricio Portillo Environment, Energy & Transportation Division National Governors Association @NatlGovsAssoc #WeTheStates.
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