Data Assimilative Hindcast for the Gulf of Mexico
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OCS Study BOEM 2015-035 Data Assimilative Hindcast for the Gulf of Mexico US Department of the Interior Bureau of Ocean Energy Management Headquarters, Sterling, VA OCS Study BOEM 2015-035 Data Assimilative Hindcast for the Gulf of Mexico Eric P. Chassignet Center for Ocean-Atmospheric Prediction Studies, Florida State University, Tallahassee, FL Ashwanth Srinivasan Tendral LLC, Miami, FL Prepared under BOEM Award M12AC00019 US Department of the Interior Bureau of Ocean Energy Management Headquarters i DISCLAIMER Study concept, oversight, and funding were provided by the US Department of the Interior, Bureau of Ocean Energy Management, Environmental Studies Program, Washington, DC, under Contract Number M12AC00019. This report has been technically reviewed by BOEM and it has been approved for publication. The views and conclusions contained in this document are those of the authors and should not be interpreted as representing the opinions or policies of the US Government, nor does mention of trade names or commercial products constitute endorsement or recommendation for use. REPORT AVAILABILITY To download a PDF file of this Environmental Studies Program report, go to the US Department of the Interior, Bureau of Ocean Energy Management, Environmental Studies Program Information System website and search on OCS Study BOEM 2015-035. This report can be viewed at select Federal Depository Libraries. It can also be obtained from the National Technical Information Service; the contact information is below. US Department of Commerce National Technical Information Service 5301 Shawnee Rd. Springfield, VA 22312 Phone: (703) 605-6000, 1(800)553-6847 Fax: (703) 605-6900 Website: http://www.ntis.gov/ CITATION Chassignet E.P., and A. Srinivasan, 2015. Data Assimilative Hindcast for the Gulf of Mexico. US Dept. of the Interior, Bureau of Ocean Energy Management, Headquarters, Sterling, VA. OCS Study BOEM 2015-035. 46 pp. Cover Page Image Information: A sample snapshot of the surface temperature (oC) from the hindcast for January 2, 2003. ACKNOWLEDGMENT This study was funded by the US Department of the Interior, Bureau of Ocean Energy Management under the cooperative agreement M12AC00019. Zhen Li is the Project Officer of this study. ii Data Assimilative Hindcast for the Gulf of Mexico Contents Contents iii List of Figures iv List of Tables iv List of Acronyms v Executive Summary vi 1. Introduction 1 2. Methodology 2 2.1 The Ocean Model and its Configuration for the Gulf of Mexico. 2 2.2 Observations for Providing Data Constraints 2 2.3 The Ocean Data Assimilation System 3 3. Initial Conditions for the Hindcast 5 4. Qualitative Evaluation of the 2003-2012 Hindcast 6 5. Quantitative Comparisons 9 5.1 Comparisons with the Along Track Altimeter Data 9 5.2 Comparison with SST Data 11 5.3 Comparison with In-Situ Profiles 12 5.4 Comparison with Surface Drifting Buoys 15 5.5 Verification with Oil Spill Trajectories 17 6. Discussion and Conclusions 17 7. Project Deliverables 18 References 20 Appendix A. Optimizing the Atmospheric Forcing 22 A-1. Radiation Flux Corrections for Thermal Forcing 22 A-2. Wind Speed Correction Based on Linear Regression to QuickSCAT Winds 23 Appendix B. Observation Error Specification and processing 25 Appendix C: Tendral-Statistical Interpolation system (T-SIS) implementation details for HYCOM 27 Appendix D: System Documentation 29 D-1. Overview 29 D-2. Contents of the Package 29 D-3. Compiling the package 29 D-3.1 Required Compilers and Libraries 29 iii D-3.2 Compiling the HYCOM ocean model 30 D-3.3 Compiling the T-SIS Assimilation Codes 31 D-4. Setting up the 2010 Hindcast 31 D-5. Reference Model Inputs Parameters 33 D-5.1 HYCOM Reference blkdat.input 33 D-5.2 T-SIS Reference Namelist 36 List of Figures Figure 1. The multiscale assimilation methodology. 5 Figure 2.Initial model state on January 1, 2003 derived from the Global HYCOM Reanalysis. 6 Figure 3. Loop current state on July 9, 2003 (sea surface height). 7 Figure 4. Loop current state on July 9, 2003 (ocean color and ocean current speed). 8 Figure 5. Time series of rms errors between model hindcast and assimilated sla observations. 10 Figure 6. Altimetry and model based estimates of the mean and variance of the sea surface elevation. 11 Figure 7. Sea surface tempreature (°C ) for july 9, 2003. 12 Figure 8.Conductivity temperature depth (CTD) stations from the wod 2009 for the 2003-2012 time frame. 13 Figure 9. Mean bias and rmsd profiles for temperature and salinity. 14 Figure 10. Location of the P3 airborne expendable bathythermograph (AXBT) observations collected during the DwH incident. 14 Figure 11. Temperature bias (°C ) and RMSD at AXBTS’ location. 15 Figure 12. Location of velocity estimates from the drifters. 16 Figure 13. Velocity RMSD and observed standard deviation; model drifter velocity correlation. 16 Figure 14. Location of the particles one month after release at the wellhead. 18 Figure 15. Scatter plot between monthly mean QSCAT winds and the NARR winds. 24 Figure 16. Schematic of the statistical interpolation algorithm used in the T-SIS assimilation scheme. 28 List of Tables Table 1. Overview of the available observations in the Gulf of Mexico 3 Table 2. Timing of separation/reattachment and shedding events as reproduced by the hindcast and CCAR altimetry 8 Table 3. Total number of profiles available in the World Ocean Database for the 2003-2012 hindcast 13 Table 4. Summary of the assumed standard deviations of instruments errors. 25 iv List of Acronyms AOML Atlantic Oceanographic and Meteorological Laboratory AVHRR Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer CCAR Colorado Center for Astrodynamics Research CTD Conductivity, Temperature, and Depth DwH Deepwater Horizon ECMWF European Center For Medium Range Weather Forecasting ERM Exact Repeat Mission ERS European Remote Sensing GDEM Global Digital Elevation Map GHRSST Group for High Resolution Sea Surface Temperature GoM Gulf of Mexico GFO Geosat Follow-on HYCOM HYbrid Coordinate Ocean Model MODIS Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer NARR North American Regional Reanalysis NCEP National Centers For Environmental Prediction NAVOCEANO Naval Oceanographic Office NOAA National Oceanic & Atmospheric Administration NODC National Oceanographic Data Center OSTM Ocean Surface Topography Mission QuickSCAT Quick Scatterometer RMS Root Mean Square RMSD Root Mean Square Deviation SLA Sea Level Anomaly SSH Sea-surface height SST Sea Surface Temperature T/P Topex/Poseidon T-SIS Tendral–Statistical Interpolation System T/S Temperature/Salinity v Executive Summary Accurate estimates of ocean currents are critical for oil spill risk analysis. As the government agency responsible for oil spill risk analysis, the Bureau of Ocean Energy Management (BOEM) requires estimates of ocean currents for oil spill risk analysis in the Gulf of Mexico. The cooperative agreement, M12AC00019, was initiated to produce a validated 2003-2012 Gulf of Mexico ocean state hindcast. Toward this end, we have used the latest version of the HYbrid Coordinate Ocean Model (HYCOM) and an ensemble based data assimilative framework to estimate the ocean state variables necessary for oil spill risk analysis. Along-track sea level anomalies, gridded sea surface temperature, in-situ and climatological profiles of salinity and temperature were assimilated to provide data constraints to the ocean model. An assessment of the hindcast shows robust model skill in reproducing the various features of the circulation in the Gulf of Mexico. As expected for a model assimilating sea level anomalies, there is a good agreement between the hindcast and independent estimates of Loop Current behavior inferred from altimetry and ocean color both in terms of temporal and spatial characteristics. Furthermore, the assimilation of a limited number of in-situ and climatological profiles of temperature and salinity is effective in controlling bias and reduces errors in the vertical density structure in the model. Comparison with both assimilated and unassimilated in-situ observations indicate that the upper ocean temperature and salinity errors are within 1.5°C and 0.3 psu for the hindcast time period. Comparisons with independent drifter derived velocity data indicate significant correlation (>0.5) between the drifter data and model velocities. Simplified oil spill simulations of the Deep Water Horizon event captures the main features of surface plume indirectly verifying the underlying model circulation fields. Overall, the hindcast dataset is consistent with what is observed during the 2003-2012 time frame and is appropriate for a range of applications including oil spill risk analysis. This report details the methodology and data used for the hindcast and includes an assessment of the 2003-2012 hindcast. The complete model hindcast dataset, model code, documentation, and a test case for the year 2010 is provided to BOEM along with this report. vi 1. Introduction The Gulf of Mexico (GoM) region accounts for 30% of the total oil production in the US. At present, there are more than 3,500 oil platforms generating more than 1.7 million barrels of oil per day. Oil production in the GoM is expected to continue at these levels into the next decade and thus carries the risk of potential oil spills into the future. Oil spill risk analysis is critical for evaluating the potential environmental impacts associated with the oil and gas development in the Gulf and underpins all preparations for spill response. In these analyses, ocean currents and their statistics are used for simulating trajectories to infer potential pathways and rates of contamination in case of a spill. A necessary requirement for a robust and scientifically rigorous risk assessment is an accurate knowledge of the statistics of powerful, complex and highly variable ocean currents. One way of obtaining such estimates is by means of data assimilative hindcasts. Such an hindcast blends observations with a dynamical circulation model to provide regular three dimensional estimates of ocean currents taking into account the errors in both observations and models.