DOCSLIB.ORG

Vox in the Mirror of the Spanish Radical Right the Consolidation of the Far-Right

Total Page：16

File Type：pdf, Size：1020Kb

Download full-text PDF Read full-text
Vox in the Mirror of the Spanish Radical Right the Consolidation of the Far-Right Vox in the Mirror of the Spanish Radical Right The Consolidation of the Far-Right Victoria Bech Herrero (6861032) Supervisor: Daniel Brett Master Thesis 2019/20 International Relations in Historical Perspective Words: 15.091 Table of Content Introduction ................................................................................................................................... 6 Academic Debates .................................................................................................................... 8 Theoretical Framework ........................................................................................................ 10 Methodology and Sources ..................................................................................................... 12 Election Data ....................................................................................................................... 12 Archival Research ............................................................................................................... 12 The Evolution of the Extreme Right .......................................................................................... 14 The Spanish Political System: A Small Overview .............................................................. 14 The End of Franco’s Regime ................................................................................................ 15 The Electoral Failure: Internal and External Reasons ......................................................... 16 The Growth of the Extreme Right in 1979 .......................................................................... 18 The Decline of the Extreme Right ........................................................................................ 19 The Transformation of the Radical Right .................................................................................. 22 The Popular Party ................................................................................................................. 22 From Alianza Popular to the Popular Party ........................................................................ 22 The Establishment of the Popular Party .............................................................................. 24 Antisystem Groups ................................................................................................................ 25 The Radical Right in Western Europe ................................................................................ 26 The Radical Right Parties in Spain ...................................................................................... 27 The Roots of the Radical Right Parties ............................................................................... 27 Rise and Fall of the Radical Right Parties .......................................................................... 28 The Ideology of the Radical Right Parties .......................................................................... 29 The Foundation of Vox .............................................................................................................. 34 The Origins of Vox ................................................................................................................ 35 The 2014 European Election ............................................................................................... 36 The Consolidation of Vox ................................................................................................... 37 The Leaders of Vox: Opportunistic and True Believers .................................................... 39 Santiago Abascal Conde ..................................................................................................... 39 Javier Ortega Smith ............................................................................................................. 40 The Ideology of Vox: A Populistic Radical Right Party? .................................................. 41 Nationalism ......................................................................................................................... 41 Nativism .............................................................................................................................. 43 Populism .............................................................................................................................. 44 Authoritarianism ................................................................................................................. 48 Other Features ..................................................................................................................... 49 Summary of the Results ...................................................................................................... 51 Conclusion ................................................................................................................................... 53 Appendix: Election Data ............................................................................................................. 56 Bibliography ................................................................................................................................ 66 Primary Sources .................................................................................................................. 66 Secondary Sources .............................................................................................................. 67 2 Abstract Spain had been considered the exception to the rise of the far-right ideology. Despite the Great Recession of 2008, the political mistrust between citizens, and the increase in immigration, there was no significant populist radical right force comparable to the European populist radical right parties. Notwithstanding, after the 2019 Spanish general elections, Vox has become the third political force in the Congress of Deputies. Due to its recent political victory, a topic of debate revolves around Vox’s ideology. Through the analysis of Vox’s electoral programs, and the study of its linguist and rhetoric, this paper will establish if Vox is the new representative of the populist radical right in Spain. Although Franco’s dictatorship was established over 30 years, neither extreme nor radical right parties have obtained more than one percent of the vote since 1979. What factors have influenced the decline of the far-right? Moreover, how this decline has affected the development of Vox’s ideology? These questions will be answered throughout the thesis, finally linking the overuse of Francoist’s dogmas by the extreme right forces, and the lack of modernization by the radical right parties, with the downfall of Spanish far-right. Finally, the thesis will establish how this situation has shaped the development of Vox’s identity. 3 Acknowledgement I would like to express the most profound appreciation to my supervisor, Dr. Daniel Brett, whose aid has been crucial for the realization of this project. His constant and constructive feedback over the course of searching and understanding the different sources, as well as his advice, for the writing of the thesis, were invaluable. Without his help, this research would not have been possible. I would like to thank Dr. Marloes Beers since she was the first person that I approached with the idea to do my thesis about Vox, and who taught me how to make a research proposal. In addition, Lecturer Stefanie Massink who restored my appreciation for the study of Spanish politics. 4 Those who cannot remember the past are condemned to repeat it. George Santayana 5 I Introduction For many years, Spain seemed to be the exception to Europe’s new normality: the rise and consolidation of populist radical right parties. Since the end of the Francoist regime in 1975, far-right parties were almost non-existent or irrelevant in the country’s political framework. Despite the Great Recession of 2008, the political mistrust between citizens, and the increase in immigration, academics such as Carmen Gónzalez-Enríquez and Xavier Casals believed that Spain was an exception to the European rise of populist radical right ideology. Neither extreme nor radical right parties have obtained more than one percent of the vote in national elections since 19791. Moreover, there was no significant populist radical right force comparable to the French Rassemblement National, the Italian Lega Nord or the German Alternative für Deutschland2. The bubble exploded when Vox succeeded in the regional election of Andalusia in 2018. In two years, the political party led by Santiago Abascal has become the third largest political force in the country, governs in the southern providence of Murcia, and was critical in the formation of Madrid’s municipal administration and the Andalusian government. This research will examine the ideology of Vox and classify the organization according to an ideology. Therefore, I will focus on the analyses of Vox’s ideology and political rhetoric between 2013 to 2020. The motivation behind this investigation is based on one reason. There is a riddle in the way that the radical right ideology has evolved in Spain. On the one hand, the strong rejection of the extremist right ideology led to the marginalization of extreme and radical right parties at the national level for many years, with only a few minor exceptions. On the other hand, Vox shares many features of other 1 González-Enríquez, Carmen. “The Spanish Exception: Unemployment, Inequality and Immigration, but
Load more

Recommended publications
  • Vox: ¿Una Nueva Extrema Derecha En España?
    VOX: ¿UNA NUEVA EXTREMA DERECHA EN ESPAÑA? Por Vicente Rubio-Pueyo Tabla de contenidos Frente a la extrema derecha............................................................................................................1 VOX: ¿Una nueva extrema derecha en España? Por Vicente Rubio-Pueyo..................................................................................................................2 Una genealogía político-cultural................................................................................................4 El giro neocon y el patriotismo constitucional (español)........................................................5 Nuevos métodos, nuevos medios.............................................................................................6 La crisis catalana..........................................................................................................................6 Trayectorias organizativas: dentro del PP y más allá del PP.................................................7 Conexiones internacionales.......................................................................................................9 Efectos de VOX dentro del campo político de la derecha...................................................10 ¿Extrema derecha populista o neoliberal? El programa de VOX......................................10 “La España viva”: el discurso de VOX y sus enemigos........................................................12 “Make Spain Great Again”: la visión histórica de VOX..........................................................14
    [Show full text]
  • Asylum-Seekers Become the Nation's Scapegoat
    NYLS Journal of International and Comparative Law Volume 14 Number 2 Volume 14, Numbers 2 & 3, 1993 Article 7 1993 TURMOIL IN UNIFIED GERMANY: ASYLUM-SEEKERS BECOME THE NATION'S SCAPEGOAT Patricia A. Mollica Follow this and additional works at: https://digitalcommons.nyls.edu/ journal_of_international_and_comparative_law Part of the Law Commons Recommended Citation Mollica, Patricia A. (1993) "TURMOIL IN UNIFIED GERMANY: ASYLUM-SEEKERS BECOME THE NATION'S SCAPEGOAT," NYLS Journal of International and Comparative Law: Vol. 14 : No. 2 , Article 7. Available at: https://digitalcommons.nyls.edu/journal_of_international_and_comparative_law/vol14/iss2/ 7 This Notes and Comments is brought to you for free and open access by DigitalCommons@NYLS. It has been accepted for inclusion in NYLS Journal of International and Comparative Law by an authorized editor of DigitalCommons@NYLS. TURMOIL IN UNIFIED GERMANY: ASYLUM-SEEKERS BECOME THE NATION'S SCAPEGOAT I. INTRODUCTION On November 9, 1989, the Berlin Wall fell, symbolizing the end of a divided German state. The long dreamed-of unification finally came to its fruition. However, the euphoria experienced in 1989 proved ephemeral. In the past four years, Germans have faced the bitter ramifications of unity. The affluent, capitalist West was called on to assimilate and re-educate the repressed communist East. Since unification, Easterners have been plagued by unemployment and a lack of security and identity, while Westerners have sacrificed the many luxuries to which they have grown accustomed. A more sinister consequence of unity, however, is the emergence of a violent right-wing nationalist movement. Asylum- seekers and foreigners have become the target of brutal attacks by extremists who advocate a homogenous Germany.
    [Show full text]
  • German Divergence in the Construction of the European Banking Union
    The End of Bilateralism in Europe? An Interest-Based Account of Franco- German Divergence in the Construction of the European Banking Union Honorable Mention, 2019 John Dunlop Thesis Prize Christina Neckermann May 2019 M-RCBG Associate Working Paper Series | No. 119 The views expressed in the M-RCBG Associate Working Paper Series are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect those of the Mossavar-Rahmani Center for Business & Government or of Harvard University. The papers in this series have not undergone formal review and approval; they are presented to elicit feedback and to encourage debate on important public policy challenges. Copyright belongs to the author(s). Papers may be downloaded for personal use only. Mossavar-Rahmani Center for Business & Government Weil Hall | Harvard Kennedy School | www.hks.harvard.edu/mrcbg The End of Bilateralism in Europe?: An Interest-Based Account of Franco-German Divergence in the Construction of the European Banking Union A thesis presented by Christina Neckermann Presented to the Department of Government in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree with honors Harvard College March 2019 Table of Contents Chapter I: Introduction 3 Statement of question and motivation - 3 Banking Union in the era of postcrisis financial reforms - 6 Outline of content and argument - 11 Chapter II: Theoretical Approach 13 Review of related literature - 13 Proposed theoretical framework - 19 Implications in the present case - 21 Methodology - 26 Chapter III: Overview of National Banking Sectors
    [Show full text]
  • 0714685003.Pdf
    CONTENTS Foreword xi Acknowledgements xiv Acronyms xviii Introduction 1 1 A terrorist attack in Italy 3 2 A scandal shocks Western Europe 15 3 The silence of NATO, CIA and MI6 25 4 The secret war in Great Britain 38 5 The secret war in the United States 51 6 The secret war in Italy 63 7 The secret war in France 84 8 The secret war in Spain 103 9 The secret war in Portugal 114 10 The secret war in Belgium 125 11 The secret war in the Netherlands 148 12 The secret war in Luxemburg 165 ix 13 The secret war in Denmark 168 14 The secret war in Norway 176 15 The secret war in Germany 189 16 The secret war in Greece 212 17 The secret war in Turkey 224 Conclusion 245 Chronology 250 Notes 259 Select bibliography 301 Index 303 x FOREWORD At the height of the Cold War there was effectively a front line in Europe. Winston Churchill once called it the Iron Curtain and said it ran from Szczecin on the Baltic Sea to Trieste on the Adriatic Sea. Both sides deployed military power along this line in the expectation of a major combat. The Western European powers created the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) precisely to fight that expected war but the strength they could marshal remained limited. The Soviet Union, and after the mid-1950s the Soviet Bloc, consistently had greater numbers of troops, tanks, planes, guns, and other equipment. This is not the place to pull apart analyses of the military balance, to dissect issues of quantitative versus qualitative, or rigid versus flexible tactics.
    [Show full text]
  • Comparative Political Reactions in Spain from the 1930S to the Present
    Comparative Political Reactions in Spain from the 1930s to the Present Undergraduate Research Thesis Presented in partial fulfillment of the requirements for graduation with honors research distinction in Spanish in the undergraduate colleges of The Ohio State University by Benjamin Chiappone The Ohio State University April 2020 Project Advisor: Professor Eugenia Romero, Department of Spanish and Portuguese Co-Advisor: Professor Ignasi Gozalo-Salellas, Department of Spanish and Portuguese Table of Contents Introduction……………………………………………………………………3 1. The Franco Regime • Francoism & Fascist European Counterparts…………………………………………6 • Franco & the Coup d’état……………………………………………………10 • Memory of the Dictatorship…………………………………………………...12 2. Left-Wing Reactions • CNT & Anarchist Traditions…………………………………………14 • ETA’s Terrorism………………………………………………………………21 • The Catatonia Crisis…………………………………………………………31 • Catalonia & Protest Through the 1992 Olympic Games…………………..35 3. VOX: a Right-Wing Reaction • VOX’s Success & Politics……………………………..…………………...41 Conclusion……………………………………………………..……………..50 2 Introduction George Santayana, a 20th century philosopher once said, “Those who cannot remember the past are condemned to repeat it.” In Spain’s Pacto de Olvido, the goal was just that, to forget. The pact was initially a political decision, but was given legal legitimacy in the Ley De Amnistía. The decree prevented any accountability for the people who were killed, tortured, and exiled during the civil war. It pardoned those (even far-right military commanders) who were involved in the regime, allowed those who were exiled to return to Spain, and has prevented the nation from investigating human rights violations under the dictatorship. Further, the pact prevented any observation of the war or any commission to look into who bore responsibility for the war (Encarnación). Regardless, memory is crucial in order to understand the past of a nation and its trajectory moving forward.
    [Show full text]
  • Madrid Viernes, 20 De Septiembre De 2019
    El jurado declara culpable a Quezada de asesinar «con alevosía» al niño Gabriel SENTENCIA Lanzó al niño «contra el suelo o pared» de «forma intencionada, súbita y repentina» FISCALÍA Solicita la pena de prisión permanente revisable. La decisión, en manos del juez MADRID VIERNES, 20 DE SEPTIEMBRE DE 2019. AÑO XX, Nº 4473 LA MADRE DEL PEQUEÑO www.20minutos.es «Hemos logrado que esa bruja no vuelva a pisar la calle» PÁGINA 7 Sánchez: «Podría ser presidente hoy... ESPECIAL MÁSTERES: TODAS LAS IDEAS PARA INVERTIR EN TU FORMACIÓN pero no dormiría por las noches» En su primera entrevista tras el anuncio de una nueva convocatoria electoral, el presidente del Go- bierno justificó su decisión de no aceptar un go- bierno de coalición con Unidas Podemos: «Ni yo ni el 95% de los españoles dormiría tranquilo con Pode- mos en el Gobierno». PÁGINA 4 URDANGARIN ALMEIDA REPROCHA A VOX EL BOICOT AL HOMENAJE PRIMER DÍA DE DE LA MUJER ASESINADA VOLUNTARIADO CAPTURA TV CAPTURA El portavoz municipal de Vox, Javier Ortega Smith, se desmarcó ayer del homenaje preparado por el Con- sistorio a la asesinada Adaliz Villagra. Almeida se enfren- P 3 tó con él en público al ponerse tras otra pancarta. EFE Iñaki Urdangarin abandonó ayer por primera vez la cárcel de Brieva desde que fue El precio de la condenado. Lo hizo para cumplir su primer día de voluntariado en el Hogar Don vivienda frena Orione, donde ayudará a discapacitados a mejorar su psicomotricidad. PÁGINA 6 su subida pero llega a niveles de 2012 PÁGINA 8 FOGONAZOS La Policía blindará RAÚL RODRÍGUEZ «EL PERIODISMO las fiestas de la Elipa por miedo Y sube y sube.
    [Show full text]
  • Populism Research Unit
    Populism Research Unit YEAR IN REVIEW REPORT RESEARCH UNIT HEAD: DR JAMES F. DOWNES MEMBERS: DR CARMEN AGUILERA-CARNERERO DR HANS-GEORG BETZ NICOLAS BICHAY DR VALERIO ALFONSO BRUNO MICHAEL COLE DR MAUREEN EGER LYNDA GILBY JUSTIN GILMORE MONIKA HUEBSCHER DANIEL JONES DR ARISTOTLE KALLIS MAXIMILIAN KRETER BALŠA LUBARDA DR ICO MALY DR ANDREAS ÖNNERFORS SOPHIE SCHMALENBERGER ALESSIO SCOPELITTI K. E. SHROPSHIRE DR VASILIKI TSAGKRONI SABINE VOLK DR ALAN WARING DR METTE WIGGEN DR RUTH WODAK DECEMBER 2020 CARR POPULISM RESEARCH UNIT YEAR-IN-REVIEW 2020 About the Populism Research Unit The CARR Populism Research Unit (PRU) features international experts whose research examines the ‘rise’ of populist radical right parties in Western Europe (Switzerland, Germany, Austria, France, Italy, Germany and the United Kingdom) alongside Central-Eastern Europe (Hungary, Poland, Slovakia, Ukraine & Georgia), Northern Europe (Norway) and the Balkans region (Montenegro). The PRU is also available for media commentary alongside consultancy relating to topics that examine populism, the radical right and the ‘mainstreaming effect’ of radical right discourse in European and Global Politics. About the CARR Year in Review Reports The CARR Year in Review reports feature the latest research from CARR Fellows reflecting back on significant developments over the course of the year, specifically on topics pertaining to the individual Research Units. CARR Year in Review reports aim to provide a useful resource within a broader network of scholars, practitioners, and policymakers focusing on key dynamics of the radical right. Managing Editor: Dr Eviane Leidig About the Centre for Analysis of the Radical Right The Centre for Analysis of the Radical Right (CARR) is a UK-based research centre and pedagogical outreach initiative focused on the study and countering of radical right extremism and intersecting phenomena (e.g.
    [Show full text]
  • Building an Unwanted Nation: the Anglo-American Partnership and Austrian Proponents of a Separate Nationhood, 1918-1934
    View metadata, citation and similar papers at core.ac.uk brought to you by CORE provided by Carolina Digital Repository BUILDING AN UNWANTED NATION: THE ANGLO-AMERICAN PARTNERSHIP AND AUSTRIAN PROPONENTS OF A SEPARATE NATIONHOOD, 1918-1934 Kevin Mason A dissertation submitted to the faculty of the University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of PhD in the Department of History. Chapel Hill 2007 Approved by: Advisor: Dr. Christopher Browning Reader: Dr. Konrad Jarausch Reader: Dr. Lloyd Kramer Reader: Dr. Michael Hunt Reader: Dr. Terence McIntosh ©2007 Kevin Mason ALL RIGHTS RESERVED ii ABSTRACT Kevin Mason: Building an Unwanted Nation: The Anglo-American Partnership and Austrian Proponents of a Separate Nationhood, 1918-1934 (Under the direction of Dr. Christopher Browning) This project focuses on American and British economic, diplomatic, and cultural ties with Austria, and particularly with internal proponents of Austrian independence. Primarily through loans to build up the economy and diplomatic pressure, the United States and Great Britain helped to maintain an independent Austrian state and prevent an Anschluss or union with Germany from 1918 to 1934. In addition, this study examines the minority of Austrians who opposed an Anschluss . The three main groups of Austrians that supported independence were the Christian Social Party, monarchists, and some industries and industrialists. These Austrian nationalists cooperated with the Americans and British in sustaining an unwilling Austrian nation. Ultimately, the global depression weakened American and British capacity to practice dollar and pound diplomacy, and the popular appeal of Hitler combined with Nazi Germany’s aggression led to the realization of the Anschluss .
    [Show full text]
  • Vox España and Alternative Für Deutschland: Propagating the Crisis of National Identity
    genealogy Article Vox España and Alternative für Deutschland: Propagating the Crisis of National Identity Robert Gould Institute of European, Eurasian and Russian Studies, Carleton University, Ottawa, ON K1S 5B6, Canada; [email protected] Received: 19 August 2019; Accepted: 25 November 2019; Published: 29 November 2019 Abstract: This paper contains a comparative analysis of the presentation of the national identity of Spain and Germany by the far-right populist parties Vox España and Alternative für Deutschland. It shows how each party views national identity as being in a serious crisis arising from the betrayal by old-line parties which has led to the increased influence of the EU, the consequent reduction of national sovereignty, a deleterious impact on their own and on European culture, and a harmful influence on the family. The parties repudiate many of the provisions of the EU treaties. They are equally opposed to the presence of Islam in Christian Europe, viewing it as a menace to values shared by all European nations. These analyses lead to an examination of the performance of crisis by means of deliberate provocation and the use of electronic media. It shows how these parties from very different parts of Europe share remarkably close positions and use the technological achievements of the twenty-first century to attack the late-twentieth-century political and social achievements of the European Union in order to replace them with the nineteenth-century idea of the distinct ethno-cultural nation fully sovereign in its own nation-state. Keywords: Alternative für Deutschland; Vox España; national identity; nationalism; nativism; crisis; Islamophobia; European Union 1.
    [Show full text]
  • Mesures De Seguretat Per La Covid
    2,50 PERIÒDIC INDEPENDENT Any XLIV D’OSONA I euros Núm. 4034 EL 9 NOU EL RIPOLLÈS Amb ‘El 9 Magazín’ Divendres, 12 de febrer de 2021 646 079 023 (Pàgina 12) (Pàgines 2 a 7) Investiguen un professor del Voltreganès per recopilar fotos d’alumnes Tot a punt (Pàgina 13) u Més de 130.000 osonencs i ripollesos u JxCat i ERC s’han alternat la victòria Recullen 27.000 estan citats diumenge a les eleccions al a Osona i el Ripollès en les últimes euros per al ramader Parlament amb el dubte de la participació convocatòries electorals que va perdre el ramat per l’atac d’uns gossos a Tavèrnoles (Pàgina 17) El govern acusa Vox de provocar amb actes com el de dissabte a la plaça de Vic (Pàgina 30) Sodeca compra l’empresa Decaclima de Rubí i la trasllada a Torelló (Pàgina 31) Casa Tarradellas inverteix 15 milions en un magatzem i un edifici ALBERT LLIMÓS d’oficines a Gurb Mesures de seguretat per la Covid (Pàgines 41 a 43) La logística d’unes eleccions enmig membres de les meses, que s’han pogut davant una logística complicada, ajun- Exposició d’una pandèmia ha estat més complicada fer tests d’antígens aquests últims dies. taments com el de Roda han contractat que mai. Al costat de les urnes, les pape- S’han buscat espais alternatius als habi- una empresa especialitzada en el control retrospectiva del retes i els sobres, s’hi han afegit equips tuals punts de votació per garantir les d’accessos per a la jornada de diumenge.
    [Show full text]
  • Madrid Jueves, 4 De Abril De 2019
    Sánchez saca adelante sus seis decretos preelectorales con el apoyo de los socios de la moción SUBSIDIO a parados mayores de 52 y ampliación del permiso de paternidad, aprobados PNV Y BILDU dan su apoyo tras la promesa de «acciones concretas» para el País Vasco MADRID JUEVES, 4 DE ABRIL DE 2019. AÑO XX, Nº 4377 PÁGINA 4 www.20minutos.es OBAMA-SÁNCHEZ: MÁS PUENTES, MENOS MUROS El presidente del Gobierno viajó ayer a Sevilla para reunirse con Barack Obama, ponente en el Congreso de Turismo. Coincidieron en la necesidad de luchar contra el cambio climático y abogaron por tratar las migraciones tendiendo puentes y no levantando muros. PÁGINA 4 RITA MAESTRE «HEMOS INVERTIDO MÁS EN LOS BARRIOS DE MADRID» Fin del ‘efecto Zidane’ ENRIQUE CIDONCHA PÁGINA 2 El Real Madrid se estrella en El invierno llega Primer paso de la hoy a España en UE para definir Mestalla (2-1) PÁGINA 14 primavera: hasta a Gibraltar como 10 grados menos una colonia PÁGINA 12 PÁGINA 4 JUAN CARLOS CÁRDENAS / EFE CÁRDENAS CARLOS JUAN FOGONAZOS ISABEL SERRANO Decretos electorales. En tiempo de descuento y muy criticado, el Gobierno de Sánchez ha sacado los «decretos sociales». No discutiremos sobre la necesidad de medidas como ampliar el permiso de paternidad o la de regular el alquiler. Pero los tiempos no son acertados a una semana de la campaña electoral. Lo dice el dicho: la mujer del César no solo debe serlo, sino parecerlo. ● 2 Jueves, 4 de abril de 2019 — 20MINUTOS MADRID micas que están reguladas. Un espacio político para otras fuer- G hotel tiene que cumplir un de- zas progresistas en Madrid y Rita Maestre terminado número de normas, creo que lo que va a pasar es que 20MINUTOS CON..
    [Show full text]
  • MNI POLITICAL RISK ANALYSIS-Catalonia Election
    MNI POLITICAL RISK ANALYSIS-Catalonia Election Preview by Tom Lake The Spanish autonomous community of Catalonia goes to the polls on Sunday 14 February in a regional vote where the whole of Spain may feel the repercussions of the result. The election, held in controversial circumstances, is being bitterly fought between parties advocating Catalonia become an independent nation state and those that support it remaining part of a federal Spain. Main Takeaways: • Pro-independence parties seem likely to be in a situation where they win a majority of seats in the regional parliament, but do not win over 50% of the vote. This would complicate the pro-independence parties call for a legitimate referendum. • Even in the scenario the pro-independence parties win both a majority of seats and a majority of the vote, the prospect of the Spanish government in Madrid granting a legal referendum is vanishingly small. Catalonia remains an engine of Spanish growth, something Madrid cannot afford to lose any time soon. • Should the pro-independence parties win a majority there is no guarantee they go on to form a regional government. The leftist pro-independence ERC could end up in government with the pro-union PSC and the regionalist ECP in a broad coalition that crosses the independence divide but takes the region in a leftist policy direction. Background The previous regional election held in December 2017 took place two months after the illegal independence referendum, which saw a majority vote in favour of independence but turnout coming in at less than 50%. The vote also saw violent crackdowns on those participating in the polls from the security services, sparking mass protest and rioting.
    [Show full text]