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Socio-Economic Assessment of Haida Gwaii / Queen Charlotte Islands Land Use Viewpoints

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Socio-Economic Assessment of Haida Gwaii / Queen Charlotte Islands Land Use Viewpoints Socio-Economic Assessment of Haida Gwaii / Queen Charlotte Islands Land Use Viewpoints Final Report – March 31st, 2006 Commissioned by the Integrated Land Management Bureau, Coast Region Ministry of Agriculture and Lands Prepared by: Pierce Lefebvre Consulting 3705 West 18th Ave. Vancouver, BC V6S 1B3 Tel: (604) 224-0648 Fax: (604) 224-5722 [email protected] Acknowledgements and Disclaimer This study was commissioned solely by the Province of BC (Integrated Land Management Bureau, BC Ministry of Agriculture and Lands) to inform government decision-making and the public at large. Ministry staff provided management, data and report editing support for the project, as well as introductions to other provincial government agencies for data and advice. It should be understood that this assessment is not endorsed by the Council of the Haida Nation and was initiated by the Province after the final working meeting of the Haida Gwaii / Queen Charlotte Islands Community Planning Forum in February of 2005. The analysis of impacts on potential timber harvesting activity relies substantially on timber supply forecasting models developed for HG/QCI by Gowlland Technologies Ltd. and Cortex Consultants Inc. In developing the socio-economic estimates prepared for this study, the consultants have made several forecasts and assumptions utilizing information gathered under the time and resource constraints imposed on this study. Socio-economic impact assessments are subject to a high degree of uncertainty, particularly as forecasts extend over periods of several decades. The forecasts and assumptions utilized herein are thought to be reasonable and suitable for the purposes of this analysis, but should not be relied upon for other purposes. The analysis was carried out in general accordance with the methods and requirements presented in the Ministry of Agriculture and Lands document titled Guidelines for Socio-Economic and Environmental Assessment (SEEA) (draft, 2006, available on request from ILMB). Pierce Lefebvre Consulting Pierce Lefebvre Consulting (PLC) specializes in providing economic and management consulting services to a wide variety of private and public sector clients. Claude Pierce is an economist with over 20 years experience, including twelve years as principal of PLC, four years as an independent consultant, and eight years with Colliers Macaulay Nicolls. Sylvie Lefebvre is a professional economist and a Certified Management Consultant. She has over 20 years of consulting experience including twelve years as a principal of PLC, and ten years at Price Waterhouse. Sylvie Lefebvre and Claude Pierce have conducted over 40 socio-economic impact assessment (SEA) studies and cost/benefit analyses related to resource analysis in all major industrial sectors in BC, including forestry, mining, energy, aquaculture, tourism, recreation, transportation, and the commercial fishing industry. Recent work by PLC includes an SEA of the Morice Land and Resource Management Plan (2004), an SEA of the Southern Rocky Mountain Management Plan (2003), an SEA of the Recovery Plan for Grizzly Bears in the North Cascades of BC (2003), and a broad SEA of the cumulative impacts of the Provincial Government’s Strategic Land Use Plans on Key Sectors in BC (2001). Pierce Lefebvre Consulting Socio-Economic Assessment of Haida Gwaii / Queen Charlotte Islands Land Use Viewpoints TABLE OF CONTENTS EXECUTIVE SUMMARY ...............................................................................................................i 1 INTRODUCTION ..................................................................................................................... 1 1.1 PROJECT METHODOLOGY................................................................................................... 1 1.2 BRIEF OVERVIEW OF RECENT LAND USE CONFLICTS ON HG/QCI........................................ 3 1.3 BASE CASE PERSPECTIVES AND LUP VIEWPOINTS.............................................................. 4 2 ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT AND WELL BEING ................................................................. 8 2.1 ECONOMIC STRUCTURE...................................................................................................... 8 2.2 FORESTRY ....................................................................................................................... 10 2.2.1 Overview of Current Conditions .............................................................................. 10 2.2.2 Overview of HG/QCI Forest Industry Potential........................................................ 14 2.2.3 Assessment of HG/QCI LUP Impacts...................................................................... 21 2.3 MINING AND MINERAL EXPLORATION................................................................................. 37 2.3.1 Overview of Mining Sector on HG/QCI.................................................................... 37 2.3.2 Potential for Mineral Development on HG/QCI........................................................ 39 2.3.3 Impacts of the HG/QCI Land Use Plan Viewpoints on the Mineral Sector.............. 40 2.4 ENERGY........................................................................................................................... 47 2.4.1 Overview of Sector .................................................................................................. 47 2.4.2 Impact of Land Use Plan on Energy Sector ............................................................ 48 2.5 NON-TIMBER FOREST PRODUCTS, AGRICULTURE, TRAPPING AND COMMERCIAL FISHING ... 49 2.5.1 Non-Timber Forest Products ................................................................................... 49 2.5.2 Agriculture ............................................................................................................... 51 2.5.3 Trapping Sector....................................................................................................... 51 2.5.4 Commercial Fishing and Fish Processing ............................................................... 52 2.6 TOURISM AND OUTDOOR RECREATION.............................................................................. 53 2.6.1 Overview of HG/QCI Tourism Sector ...................................................................... 53 2.6.2 Tourism Potential and Issues .................................................................................. 55 2.6.3 Overview of Outdoor Public Recreation on HG/QCI................................................ 63 2.6.4 Overall Socio-Economic Impacts from Tourism and Recreation Sector.................. 65 2.6.5 Impact of HG/QCI Land Use Plan on the Tourism and Recreation Sectors............ 66 3 HAIDA LAND USE VISION.................................................................................................... 71 4 COMMUNITY SUSTAINABILITY........................................................................................... 74 4.1 OVERVIEW OF HG/QCI COMMUNITIES............................................................................... 74 4.2 IMPACTS OF LUP VIEWPOINTS ON COMMUNITIES .............................................................. 76 5 CONCLUSIONS TO SOCIO-ECONOMIC ASSESSMENT.................................................... 81 5.1 ECONOMIC WELL BEING ................................................................................................... 81 5.2 NET ECONOMIC VALUE AND GOVERNMENT REVENUES ...................................................... 82 5.3 COMMUNITY SUSTAINABILITY ............................................................................................ 84 5.4 HAIDA LAND USE VISION AND SPECIFIC HAIDA INTERESTS ................................................. 84 Pierce Lefebvre Consulting LIST OF TABLES Table 1 Key Elements of the SEA Scenarios ......................................................................... 6 Table 2 HG/QCI Harvest by Management Unit .................................................................... 11 Table 3 Impacts on Harvest Volume Potential for Each Management Scenario.................. 21 Table 4 Summary of Harvest Level Projections for Scenarios ............................................. 24 Table 5 Impacts of LUP Viewpoints on Forested Area Currently Accessible for Harvest .... 25 Table 6 Summary of Estimated Employment Impacts for Various HG/QCI Harvest Levels. 32 Table 7 Annual Impacts on Net Economic Value for Various HG/QCI Harvest Levels ........ 33 Table 8 Estimated Long Term Employment Impacts for Various HG/QCI Harvest Levels... 34 Table 9 Mineral ARIS Exploration Expenditures in HG/QCI, 1980 – 2004........................... 38 Table 10 Impacts of HG/QCI Land Use Plan Proposed Protected Areas on Mining Values.. 41 Table 11 Impacts of No-Mining Watersheds on HG/QCI Mining Values................................ 43 Table 12 Combined Impacts of LUP Viewpoints and Perspectives on the Mining Sector...... 45 Table 13 Summary of Impacts on Mining Sector.................................................................... 46 Table 14 Estimated Net Economic Value from Mushroom Harvest in Average Year............. 50 Table 15 HG/QCI Mushroom and Agricultural Land Reserve ................................................ 50 Table 16 Number of HG/QCI Tourism Activities/Services...................................................... 55 Table 17 Socio-Economic Impacts of HG/QCI Sportfishing Lodges and Charters................. 59 Table 18 Socio-Economic Impacts from Adventure Operators and Gwaii Haanas...............
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