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CMEMS MED-MFC and the Downscaling MONGOOS Effort Mediterranean Forecasting System MFS CMEMS MED-MFC and the downscaling MONGOOS effort Giovanni Coppini1, M. Drudi2, G. Korres3, C. Fratianni2, S. Salon4, G. Cossarini4, Emanuela Clementi2, A. Zacharioudaki3, A. Grandi2, D. Delrosso2, J. Pistoia2, P. Di Pietro2, C. Solidoro4, N. Pinardi2,3,5, R. Lecci1, P. Agostini1, S. Cretì1, G. Turrisi1, F. Palermo1, A. Konstantinidou3, A. Storto1, S. Simoncelli2, S. Masina1, S.A. Ciliberti1, M. Ravdas3, M. Mancini1, G. Aloisio1, S. Fiore1, G.Bolzon4, M. Buonocore1 and M. Ravdas3 And MONGOOS modelling working group: Georg Umgiesser, Pierre Garreau, Agustín S. Arcilla, Emanuela Clementi, Stefano Salon, Michalis Ravdas, Ivan Federico, George Zodiatis, Christian Ferrarin, Giorgia Verri, Gianpiero Cossarini, Marcos Garcia Sotillo, Andrea Cucco, Roberto Sorgente, Baptiste Mourre, Ivica Vilibić, Simone Sammartino, Giovanni Coppini, Enrique Alvarez Fanjul CMEMS - MFCs The CMEMS is Arctic centrally Baltic coordinated by North West Mercator Ocean. It is Shelves build on a network of integrated sub- components that are either thematic (TACs) or Global geographically Ocean defined (MFCs), all contributing to the Black Sea monitoring and forecasting of the Mediterranean Essential Ocean Variables accessible Eastern North for the users by a Atlantic - IBI Web Portal: marine.copernicus.eu/ CMEMS Med-MFC organization & Service timing The CMEMS Med-MFC is a consortium of 4 research institutes: CMCC (Leader of the consortium) INGV (Responsible for the Physical product) OGS (Responsible for the Biogeochemical product) HCMR (Responsible for the Wave product) The CMEMS Med-MFC operational service started in May 2015 and is continuously improved following users requests and suggestions (user forum): a new upgraded release is delivered every year. The V1 system in operation since the beginning of the service has just been replaced, the 13th April 2016, by an improved new version, namely V2. May 2015 April 2016 April 2017 April 2018 Med-Currents products in CMEMS Catalogue Hourly mean – Daily mean Analyses and Forecast (1/24° 141 Vertical levels) • 2D Sea Surface Height • 3D Salinity • 3D Potential Temperature • 3D Zonal/Meridional currents • 2D MLD • 2D Bottom Temperature • 2D Stokes Drift & Wavenumber Daily mean – Monthly mean MEDITERRANEAN SEA PHYSICS REANALYSIS (1987- 2014) PHY Reanalysis (1987-2015) (1/16° 72 Vertical levels) • 2D Sea Surface Height • 3D Salinity • 3D Potential Temperature • 3D Zonal/Meridional currents Monthly mean MEDITERRANEAN SEA PHYSICS REANALYSIS (1955- 2014) PHY Reanalysis (1955-2015) (1/16° 72 Vertical levels) • 2D Sea Surface Height • 3D Salinity • 3D Potential Temperature • 3D Zonal/Meridional currents Med-Currents: analysis and forecast numerical model Atmo/Land forcings/OBC ECMWF 1/8o atmospheric fields: - mean sea level pressure (MSLP) Temporal resolution: - cloud cover For forecasts: 3hr time resolution for the first 3 - 2m relative humidity days and 6 hours time resolution fields for the - 2m air temperature remaining 7 days - 10m zonal and meridional winds For analysis: 6 hours time resolution components - Precipitations The land river runoff: vertical boundary condition for major rivers: green dots represent the 7 river sources included in both V2 and V3.2 systems, red dots represent the 32 additional rivers implemented in V3.2 (climatological monthly mean seasonal cycle values) The Dardanelles inflow is also parameterized also as a river Boundary conditions in the Atlantic daily real time analyses and forecasts from Global Ocean Forecasting System (GLO-MFC)` @ 1/12° horizontal resolution, 50 vertical levels Impact of the improved river input Surface Salinity measured at ODAS coastal mooring (green line) in the Ligurian Sea and compared to V3.2 (blue line) and V2 (red line) systems during year 2015 Time series of daily volume averaged salinity evaluated for systems V2 (red line), V3.2 (blue line) and compared to monthly climatological values from WOA2013 V2 datasets (black line). Med-Currents Analysis and Forecast system: In-situ observations used in the Data Assimilation scheme ATMOSPHERIC FORCINGS ECMWF 1/8o forecast/analysis fields OBSERVATIONS time resolution: 3/6 hrs: OGCM model Along track satellite SLA ➢mean sea level pressure (MSLP) NEMO v3.6 ➢cloud cover from CMEMS SL-TAC, for ➢2m relative humidity all available satellites ➢2m air temperature RESOLUTION: ➢10m wind velocity o ➢Precipitation 1/24 hor. res 141 vert. levels Vertical profiles of T and S LAND RIVER RUNOFF: 39 rivers from CMEMS InSitu TAC: sources aligned with Med-BIO Argo XBT Gliders BOUNDARY CONDITIONS in the Atlantic: daily analyses/forecasts Data Assimilation: from Global Ocean MFC @ 1/12° hor. 3D variational scheme res., 50 vert. lev. implemented in the Med-Sea following Storto et al. (2015) Satellite SST (L4) from CMEMS OSI TAC Data assimilated: SLA satellite data from SL-TAC + PRODUCTS In-situ observations from InSitu-TAC 3D daily/hourly fields of: T, S, UV; INITIAL CONDITIONS from WOA V2 climatologies 2D daily/hourly fields of: SSH, MLD, Tb 7 Med-Currents Analysis and Forecast system: In-situ observations used in the Validation assessment Temperature (degC) In-situ moorings used for CLASS2 independent validation: for T, S, SL, UV Validation with Gliders in the Balearic Sea Med-Currents: analysis and forecast Product Quality Annual (2016) mean EAN (BIAS and RMSD) for V3.2 T, S, SST, SSH, U, V (indep. data system for temperature (left) and salinity (right) from moorings: calval.bo.ingv.it/) T, S, SLA (misfits of quasi- indep. data) medforecast.bo.ing v.it/mfs-copernicus-evaluation/ Every Every Every Every year, Day Week 3 months New version Opening of Messina Strait Messina Strait transport and currents. Left: Net transport during year 2016 [Sv]; Center: Surface currents in Med-Currents V2 system (the strait is closed); Right: Surface currents in Med-Currents V3.2 system (the strait is open) Med-Currents products in CMEMS Catalogue Hourly mean – Daily mean Analyses and Forecast • 2D Sea Surface Height • 3D Salinity • 3D Potential Temperature • 3D Zonal/Meridional currents • 2D MLD • 2D Bottom Temperature • 2D Stokes Drift & Wavenumber Daily mean – Monthly mean MEDITERRANEAN SEA PHYSICS REANALYSIS (1987- 2014) PHY Reanalysis (1987-2015) • 2D Sea Surface Height • 3D Salinity • 3D Potential Temperature • 3D Zonal/Meridional currents Monthly mean MEDITERRANEAN SEA PHYSICS REANALYSIS (1955- 2014) PHY Reanalysis (1955-2015) • 2D Sea Surface Height • 3D Salinity • 3D Potential Temperature • 3D Zonal/Meridional currents Med-Currents: Reanalysis Product 006_009 (1955-2015) Parameter BIAS RMSE SST 0.2±0.3 0.59±0.16 SST RMSE and BIAS computed from Med- MFC REA and satellite reference SST on a monthly basis The largest RMSE are located along: Northern Adriatic coast Negative BIAS and large positive RMS values appear in the upwelling areas of the Mediterranean Sea, such as Eastern Adriatic Sea and Southern Sicily, and in the Northern Adriatic Sea and Aegean Sea Med-MFC Physical-Biogeochemical components 1/16o (~6km) hor. res 72 vert. levels Med-Currents NEMO-WW3 2-way Circulation-Wave model Data Assimilation: OceanVar Med-Biogeochemistry OGSTM-BFM Transport-biogeochem model Data Assimilation: 3DVAR Med-Biogeochemistry: Analysis and Forecast system: In-situ observations used in the validation of products BIOGEOCHEMICAL Observations: Physical forcing MODEL (resolution: 1/24°, Multisensor and ESA-CCI U, V, T, S, SSH from Chlorophyll Satellite from Med-MFC Physical 124z levels) CMEMS OC TAC component OGSTM - transport model Daily 2D fields at 4km res. vvl formulation (non-linear free surface) NEMO 3.6 daily 3D fields at 1/24° and 130z levels Assimilation Biogeochemical Flux Model – 3DVAR-BIO 51 variables; cycle ofBFM C, N, P, Si, O; carbonate variational scheme; weekly Land & Atm. system; Plankton Functional Types formulation assimilation cycle Forcings yearly and monthly climatological data PRODUCTS for rivers; seasonal estimates for atm. 8 variables: chlorophyll, nitrate, phosphate, primary production, Boundary phytopl. biomass, oxygen, pCO2, Conditions Seasonal pH profiles in the Atlantic buffer VALIDATION with climatology zone from MEDAR/MEDATLAS and (WOA2013) and in situ data CarbSys climatologies from NODC-OGS dataset, CARB-SYS-OGS dataset and Initial Conditions BGC-Argo floats MEDAR/MEDATLAS and 5- y hindcast spin-up + 17-y reanalysis Med-biogeochemistry Analysis and Forecast system: In-situ observations used in the Validation NODC-OGS dataset for nitrate, phosphate, oxygen (~6000 data, 2000-2011) CARB SYS OGS dataset for pH, DIC, alkalintiy (~4000 data, 2001-2013: ) Validation with in-situ data provides an estimate of the model accuracy in reproducing basin-wide gradients and vertical profiles, and a reference uncertainty number for each sub- CMEMS Marine Week: 25- basin and layer.15 29/09/2017 V3 : to be released V4 : to be released April 2017 March 2018 Phase I Phase I ✓The Med-waves forecasting system has been implemented in a nested configuration : Atlantic V3 April 2017 V4 March 2018 V3.1: Mediterranean Sea wave V4.1: Mediterranean Sea wave (coarse grid model) -> Mediterranean Sea (fine grid model (WAM Cycle 4.5.4) 1/24 deg, model (WAM Cycle 4.5.4) 1/24 32 frequency and 24 directional bins deg, 32 frequency and 24 model). directional bins V3.2: Atlantic ocean wave model V4.2: Atlantic ocean wave model (WAM Cycle 4.5.4) 1/6 deg, 32 (WAM Cycle 4.5.4) 1/6 deg, 32 frequency and 24 directional bins, frequency and 24 directional nested with the Mediterranean bins)nested with the Cliquez et modifiez wave
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