First Draft Not To Be Quoted Exchange Rate Return Co-movements and Volatility Spillover: The Case of Emerging Market Economies Suman Das1 and Saikat Sinha Roy2 Abstract The paper examines the return co-movements and volatility spillover among four major foreign exchange markets and four emerging markets. In particular the return co-movement and the volatility spillover between the foreign exchange markets of India, China, Brazil and South Africa and several other currencies namely the Euro, Japanese Yen, Australian Dollar and Swiss Franc for the period 1995-2015 is the main objective of the study. Based on daily data, the paper estimates a flexible MGARCH-Dynamic Conditional Correlation model and VAR-based spillover index. The econometric estimation suggests the presence of significant return co- movement and volatility spillover between the foreign exchange markets with emerging markets as the net receiver of volatility and developed markets as the net transmitter of volatility. JEL Classification: C32, C58, E44, F31, F41, G15 Key Words: Exchange Rate, Emerging Market, Volatility, MGARCH-DCC Model, Return Co- movement, VAR based Spillover Index. 1 Ph.D Scholar, Department of Economics, Jadavpur University, Kolkata, India. 2 Professor, Department of Economics, Jadavpur University, Kolkata, India. Correspondence: Suman Das, Department of Economics, Jadavpur University, 188, Raja S. C. Mallick Road, Kolkata 700 032, West Bengal, India. Tel: 09836583154. Email:
[email protected] 1. INTRODUCTION The appearance that immediately importunes in the mind with the word „volatile‟ is that of unstable stock market, balance of payments crisis of the late 1990s or the unpredictable capital flows in the emerging market economies.