DOCSLIB.ORG

Europe Without the EU? by Filippo L

Total Page：16

File Type：pdf, Size：1020Kb

Download full-text PDF Read full-text
Europe Without the EU? by Filippo L Europe without the EU? by Filippo L. Calciano1, Paolo Paesani2 and Gustavo Piga3 Policy Brief 1 Introduction The aim of this paper is to conduct a simple albeit daring exercise in counterfactual history: we discuss what the consequences for European countries would be, in the midst of the current economic crisis, if the European Union did not exist. The EU is both a monetary union and a political and institutional union, and in this study we consider both aspects. As a monetary union, the EU manages the common currency, the euro, through the actions of the European Central Bank (ECB). As a political union the EU serves many purposes, the most important of which, with respect to the current economic crisis, is to provide a privileged forum to coordinate Member States’ anti-crisis policies. As a matter of fact, since the beginning of the cr isis, European leaders have held numerous European Council meetings as well as preparatory G-8 and G-20 meetings, confirming the urgent need for policy coordination and cooperation both at EU and international level. In this study we pose and answer the following two questions: 1. What would the consequences of the current crisis be for European countries if the euro had not been introduced ten years ago; that is, if European Monetary Union (EMU) had failed? 1 CORE, Université Catholique de Louvain-la-Neuve, and Department of Economics, University of Rome 3, email: fi[email protected]. 2 Department of Economics, University of Rome 2, email: [email protected]. 3 Department of Economics, University of Rome 2, corresponding author, email: [email protected]. Policy Brief 2. What would the consequences of the current crisis be if the EU were not acting as the instrument of coordination for Member States’ responses to the crisis? We are fully aware that the political coordination within the EU is far from perfect. Unlike the United States, where the Federal Government can implement policies that are applied systematically across all 50 states, EU-wide actions reflect compromise among national authorities and Member States keep some freedom not to abide—at least partially—by the directions of the EU. We take this feature of the European integration process fully into account, and many of our findings are based on this reality. We find that if the EU as such had failed to exist, Member States would have needed to deal with the following problems, in addition to the economic situation which they are currently experiencing: The consequences of the lack of a common currency (the euro) • More macroeconomic instability in terms of internal prices and exchange rates. • Substantial ‘flight to quality’ (investors abandoning high yield/high risk assets in favour of safer ones) leading to appreciation of traditionally strong currencies (German mark) and to depreciation of weaker ones (Italian lira, Spanish peseta, Portuguese escudo). With the following consequences: • for strong-currency countries, a larger drop in exports, internal demand, income and employment; • for weak-currency countries, inflation, increases in nominal and real interest rates and more than likely a larger drop in internal demand, income and employment. • No shield effect against the crisis for weaker/smaller countries, thus exacerbating all of their current economic problems. The consequences of the lack of coordination at the EU level of Member States’ anti-crisis policies • The risk of running into the ‘national champion’ dilemma: without EU coordination, Member States would have incentives not to help troubled banks and firms; otherwise they would reveal to the market that the bank/firm is in 2 trouble, thus exacerbating its problems. As a consequence, Member States would not intervene as much as they should to support the economy and above all would not intervene in the right way: only the less efficient banks and firms would be supported. • The risk of ‘negative contagion’: without EU coordination, because of the problem of ‘free riding’, the Member States would not intervene in a timely enough manner to support the economy, and in extreme cases would not Policy Brief intervene at all or would intervene in a protectionist way (i.e., the ‘beggar thy neighbour’ phenomenon). • The risk of diminishing ‘positive contagion’ effects. Positive contagion consists in the EU adopting good policies that have been implemented by some of its Member States to prevent EU-wide competition, and is a consequence of EU integration and policy coordination. • The risk of a possibly total reversal of positive contagion, leading to classic protectionism in the form of barriers to trade and to free movement of production factors. • The risk of failing to set up a new regulatory framework for financial markets. The structure of the paper is as follows. Section 2 briefly discusses the advantages and disadvantages of having a common currency, the euro. This excursus is necessary for us to assess, in Section 3, the possible consequences of the current crisis if the euro had not been introduced. Section 4 studies the consequences of the current crisis in the case of a lack of coordination at the EU level of the anti-crisis policies of Member States. Section 5 concludes with some final remarks. 2. Europe and the Euro This section is devoted to reviewing briefly some of the general advantages and disadvantages of EMU with respect to inflation levels, macroeconomic stability, pan- European trade, financial integration and the fostering of structural reforms in Member States, thereby supplying the necessary background analysis for assessing, in the next section, what would be happening today in times of financial and economic crisis in the absence of the single currency. Mongelli and Vega (2006) and Buti and Gaspar (2008) offer compact overviews of the main advantages of EMU. From an aggregate point of view, Buti and Gaspar (2008) recall that during the first decade under EMU, inflation in the euro area was on average close to but not below 2%, which is the definition of price stability prescribed by the ECB Governing Council. Excluding energy and the price of unprocessed food, the average inflation rate would have been 1.8%. The ECB has maintained wellanchored inflation expectations. The degree of credibility of the ECB is particularly remarkable given that it was at the beginning a new institution without a track record. 3 At the same time, the volatility of real variables like output has also moderated, thus increasing macroeconomic stability. Although average real GDP growth has remained virtually unchanged at slightly more than 2%, during the period since 1999 more than 18 million jobs have been created (much more than in the previous decade). While it would be incorrect to attribute job creation mainly to the euro, the environment of Policy Brief macroeconomic stability and the ensuing labour market reforms in the run-up to EMU contributed to making the labour markets more flexible, supporting competitiveness and ultimately growth. 4 As for the effects on trade, there is broad agreement that the euro has had a positive effect on the euro area, in terms of an increased level of trade integration without trade diversion. As pointed out in a recent ECB report (ECB 2008), estimates of the size of the effect have provided very heterogeneous results, largely due to the adoption of different methodologies for analysis. Economists now seem to have reached consensus that the single currency has boosted the growth of trade among euro area countries by 2 to 3 percentage points on average (Bun and Klassen 2007). Had the single currency not been introduced, this extra growth, largely the consequence of diminishing transaction costs, 5 would not have materialised. 6 Another major advantage of EMU is the acceleration in the process of European financial integration. On the supply side, banks and investors in fixed income markets have become more focused on the characteristics of individual borrowers rather than the nationality of the issuer and have built up expertise to evaluate credit risk (Galati and Tsatsaronis 2003). European equity markets have also been affected by the enhanced ability of investors to build strategies with a pan-European perspective, as prices increasingly reflect risk factors specific to industrial sectors rather than individual countries. Between 1997 and 2005 euro area residents doubled their holdings of equity issued in another euro area country—as a share of their total portfolio of shares issued in their own country and elsewhere in the euro area—to reach 29%. On the other hand, the 4 According to Bernanke (2004), one of the most striking features of the economic landscape over the past twenty years or so has been a substantial decline in macroeconomic volatility. The variability of quarterly growth in real output (as measured by its standard deviation) has declined by half since the mid-1980s, while the variability of quarterly inflation has declined by about two-thirds. Several writers on the topic have dubbed this remarkable decline in the variability of both output and inflation ‘the Great Moderation’. Similar declines in the volatility of output and inflation occurred at about the same time in other major industrial countries, with the recent exception of Japan, a country that has faced a distinctive set of economic problems in the past decade. 5 ‘Transaction cost’ refers to the cost of providing for some good or service through the market rather than having it provided from within the firm. In order to carry out a market transaction it is necessary to discover who it is that one wishes to deal with, to conduct negotiations leading up to an agreement, to draw up the contract, to undertake the inspection needed to make sure that the terms of the contract are being observed and so on.
Load more

Recommended publications
  • The Lira: Back in the Zone Panel Was Frequently Below the Lower Edge of the Band
    February 1997 I,Trends MA~Y It: were frequently realigned. The forward rate in the top The Lira: Back in the Zone panel was frequently below the lower edge of the band. Thus, these narrow target zones were not seen After more than four years, the Italian lira returned as credible by the market. Since reentry, however, the to the Exchange Rate Mechanism (ERM) of the forward rate, as shown in the lower panel, is well European Union (EU) on November 25, 1996. A within the target zone, indicating that market partici- speculative attack had forced the withdrawal of the pants expect the lira to remain within the target lira from the ERM on September 17, 1992. The zones. Thus, the current wide bands appear to be ERM commits member countries to maintain their more credible than the narrower bands of the earlier exchange rates within bilateral bands or target zones period. against all the other currencies. The lira is allowed to Christopher J. Neely fluctuate within margins of 15 percent on both sides of the mid-point of the target zone, known as the central parity, which is 1.0101 DM per 1000 lire for Target Zone, Spot and 1-year Forward Rate the bilateral band with Germany. Although target zones are said to offer the advantages of more stable DM per 1000 Lira exchange rates and greater inflation credibility, the 2.4 primary motivation of the Italian government for rejoining the ERM is the requirement that the lira Target Zone 2.0 remain within the target zone for at least two years before Italy can join the European Monetary Union Spot Rate (EMU).
    [Show full text]
  • Interview with Director of the Italian State Mint November 14, 2011 by Michael Alexander 2 Comments
    Interview with Director of the Italian State Mint November 14, 2011 By Michael Alexander 2 Comments Classic numismatic design has its roots in the ancient states of Athens and Rome. Today, this unparalleled tradition continues in the modern city of Rome at the Instituto Poligrafico Zecca dello Stato (IZPS), the Italian State Mint. As Italy celebrates 150 years of Unification in 2011, Michael Alexander of the London Banknote and Monetary Research Centre speaks to Angelo Rossi, Director of the IPZS about its past present and what’s in store for this prime producer of classical European coinage. For many world coin collectors, the coinage of the many Italian states before unification and those of Italy are considered among some of the most beautifully designed with classic renditions of historic persons, legendary and allegorical figures. Italy’s longest serving head of state, king, Victor Emanuel III (reigned 1900 – 1946) took a particular interest in the coinage of a unified Italy as he was a keen life-long coin collector. The former king’s collection was world renowned for including some of the most extraordinary rarities, (including some of the coins issued under his reign with his portrait) and much of it is on display in the Roman Museum to delight dedicated numismatists. Italian coinage has continued to carry on the long established tradition of classically designed small works of art which can be seen throughout their designs. Should you find yourself in Europe’s Eternal City, I can heartily recommend a visit to the Roman Museum as well as the Temple where the first Mint is said to have existed, a veritable plethora of homage to our beloved activity.
    [Show full text]
  • Development of a Knowledge Based Decision Support System for Private Sector Participation in Water and Sanitation Utilities
    FORSCHUNGS- UND ENTWICKLUNGSINSTITUT FÜR INDUSTRIE- UND SIEDLUNGSWASSERWIRTSCHAFT SOWIE ABFALLWIRTSCHAFT E.V. STUTTGART Carla Gonçalves Pinheiro Böhl Development of a Knowledge Based Decision Support System for Private Sector Participation in Water and Sanitation Utilities KOMISSIONSVERLAG OLDENBOURG INDUSTRIEVERLAG GMBH, MÜNCHEN 2007 D93 Bibliographische Information Der Deutschen Bibliothek Die Deutsche Bibliothek verzeichnet die Publikation in der Deutschen Nationalbibliographie; detaillierte bibliographische Daten sind im Internet über http://dnb.ddb.de abrufbar Carla Gonçalves Pinheiro Böhl Development of a Knowledge Based Decision Support System for Private Sector Participation in Water and Sanitation Utilities Forschungs- und Entwicklungsinstitut für Industrie- und Siedlungswasserwirtschaft sowie Abfallwirtschaft e.V. Stuttgart (FEI). München: Oldenbourg Industrieverlag GmbH, 2007. (Stuttgarter Berichte zur Siedlungswasserwirtschaft; Bd. 189) Zugl.: Stuttgart, Univ., Diss., 2007 ISBN 978-3-8356-3137-3 ISBN 978-3-8356-3137-3 © 2007 Alle Rechte vorbehalten Satz: Institut für Siedlungswasserbau, Wassergüte- und Abfallwirtschaft der Universität Stuttgart Bandtäle 2, 70569 Stuttgart (Büsnau) Druck: medien-fischer.de GmbH, Benzstr. 3, 70736 Fellbach Printed in Germany ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS As a Doctoral Candidate of the Faculty of Engineering of the University of Stuttgart (Germany) enrolled in the International Doctoral Program Environment Water (ENWAT) and the person authoring this dissertation, I wish to express my grateful thanks to Prof. Rott (University of Stuttgart) for his guidance and assistance during the research. Prof. Vermeer (University of Stuttgart) helped the research get started. Very special thanks are due to Prof. Marx (University of Stuttgart) and Prof. Bárdossy (University of Stuttgart): their explanations on how to model using composite programming have been most useful. Prof. David Stephenson (University of Botswana) for his invaluable inputs.
    [Show full text]
  • Interest Rate Spreads Implicit in Options: Spain and Italy Against Germany*
    Interest Rate Spreads Implicit in Options: Spain and Italy against Germany* Bernardino Adão Banco de Portugal Universidade Católica Portuguesa and Jorge Barros Luís Banco de Portugal University of York Abstract The options premiums are frequently used to obtain probability density functions (pdfs) for the prices of the underlying assets. When these assets are bank deposits or notional Government bonds it is possible to compute probability measures of future interest rates. Recently, in the literature there have been many papers presenting methods of how to estimate pdfs from options premiums. Nevertheless, the estimation of probabilities of forward interest rate functions is an issue that has never been analysed before. In this paper, we propose such a method, that can be used to study the evolution of the expectations about interest rate convergence. We look at the cases of Spain and Italy against Germany, before the adoption of a single currency, and conclude that the expectations on the short-term interest rates convergence of Spain and Italy vis-à-vis Germany have had a somewhat different trajectory, with higher expectations of convergence for Spain. * Please address any correspondence to Bernardino Adão, Banco de Portugal, Av. Almirante Reis, n.71, 1150 Lisboa, Portugal. I. Introduction Derivative prices supply important information about market expectations. They can be used to obtain probability measures about future values of many relevant economic variables, such as interest rates, currency exchange rates and stock and commodity prices (see, for instance, Bahra (1996) and SCderlind and Svensson (1997)). However, many times market practitioners and central bankers want to know the probability measure of a combination of economic variables, which is not directly associated with a traded financial instrument.
    [Show full text]
  • The Greek Anomaly: Three Bailouts and a Continuing Crisis
    THE GREEK ANOMALY: THREE BAILOUTS AND A CONTINUING CRISIS by MARKOS BEYS PAPACHRISTOU Submitted in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of Master of Arts Thesis Adviser: Professor Elliot Posner Department of Political Science CASE WESTERN RESERVE UNIVERSITY January, 2017 CASE WESTERN RESERVE UNIVERSITY SCHOOL OF GRADUATE STUDIES We hereby approve the thesis/dissertation of Markos Beys Papachristou candidate for the degree of Master of Arts * Committee Chair: Elliot Posner Committee Member: Peter Moore Committee Member: Joseph White Date of Defense: December 9, 2016 * We also certify that written approval has been obtained for any proprietary material contained therein. To my Parents Christos and Patricia Papachristou Table of Contents 1. Introduction.......................................................................................................................1 2. Origins and Causes of the Greek Crisis.............................................................................7 2.1 Issues with the Greek Politics and Economics...........................................................7 2.2 Economics of the Greek Debt...................................................................................14 3. EU – ECB – IMF Bailouts of Greece..............................................................................20 3.1 Bailouts and Austerity Measures..............................................................................20 3.2 Cost of Austerity.......................................................................................................28
    [Show full text]
  • The Economic and Monetary Union: Past, Present and Future
    CASE Reports The Economic and Monetary Union: Past, Present and Future Marek Dabrowski No. 497 (2019) This article is based on a policy contribution prepared for the Committee on Economic and Monetary Affairs of the European Parliament (ECON) as an input for the Monetary Dialogue of 28 January 2019 between ECON and the President of the ECB (http://www.europarl.europa.eu/committees/en/econ/monetary-dialogue.html). Copyright remains with the European Parliament at all times. “CASE Reports” is a continuation of “CASE Network Studies & Analyses” series. Keywords: European Union, Economic and Monetary Union, common currency area, monetary policy, fiscal policy JEL codes: E58, E62, E63, F33, F45, H62, H63 © CASE – Center for Social and Economic Research, Warsaw, 2019 DTP: Tandem Studio EAN: 9788371786808 Publisher: CASE – Center for Social and Economic Research al. Jana Pawła II 61, office 212, 01-031 Warsaw, Poland tel.: (+48) 22 206 29 00, fax: (+48) 22 206 29 01 e-mail: [email protected] http://www.case-researc.eu Contents List of Figures 4 List of Tables 5 List of Abbreviations 6 Author 7 Abstract 8 Executive Summary 9 1. Introduction 11 2. History of the common currency project and its implementation 13 2.1. Historical and theoretic background 13 2.2. From the Werner Report to the Maastricht Treaty (1969–1992) 15 2.3. Preparation phase (1993–1998) 16 2.4. The first decade (1999–2008) 17 2.5. The second decade (2009–2018) 19 3. EA performance in its first twenty years 22 3.1. Inflation, exchange rate and the share in global official reserves 22 3.2.
    [Show full text]
  • Dissemination of Historical Time Series for The
    | Statistical Press Release | Lisboa, 20th October 2010 | Dissemination of historical time‐series for the Portuguese Escudo1 Banco de Portugal was created by a royal decree on 19 November 1846, as an issuing bank, entrusted with the “exclusive power to issue banknotes or bearer bonds in mainland Portugal”. After more than 160 years, during which three distinct monetary currencies have been adopted (real, escudo and euro), Banco de Portugal continues to guarantee the issue and putting into circulation of the national economy’s legal tender currency. It currently holds this function under the framework and operating regulations set out for the national central banks of the Eurosystem and the European System of Central Banks (ESCB), under the provisions of the Article 6 (1) of the Organic Law of the Banco de Portugal: “Under the provisions of Article 106 of the Treaty which institutes the European Community, Banco de Portugal issues banknotes, which are legal tender and have discharging power”. Under the provisions of Article 20 of the Organic Law “Banco de Portugal is the exchange rate authority of the Portuguese Republic” and, pursuant to the Article 13, “It is incumbent on Banco de Portugal the collection and compilation of monetary, financial, foreign exchange and balance of payments statistics, in particular within the scope of its co‐operation with the ECB”. In this framework, the Banco de Portugal has decided to collect all the information about the Escudo, available in various media, mostly on paper, and to make available to the public historical time‐series of the Escudo accompanied by metadata that contributes to a better understanding of its evolution since the late nineteenth century until the adoption of the euro by Portugal on 1 January 1999.
    [Show full text]
  • 'The Birth of the Euro' from <I>EUROPE</I> (December 2001
    'The birth of the euro' from EUROPE (December 2001-January 2002) Caption: On the eve of the entry into circulation of euro notes and coins on January 1, 2002, the author of the article relates the history of the single currency's birth. Source: EUROPE. Magazine of the European Union. Dir. of publ. Hélin, Willy ; REditor Guttman, Robert J. December 2001/January 2002, No 412. Washington DC: Delegation of the European Commission to the United States. ISSN 0191- 4545. Copyright: (c) EUROPE Magazine, all rights reserved The magazine encourages reproduction of its contents, but any such reproduction without permission is prohibited. URL: http://www.cvce.eu/obj/the_birth_of_the_euro_from_europe_december_2001_january_2002-en-fe85d070-dd8b- 4985-bb6f-d64a39f653ba.html Publication date: 01/10/2012 1 / 5 01/10/2012 The birth of the euro By Lionel Barber On January 1, 2002, more than 300 million European citizens will see the euro turn from a virtual currency into reality. The entry into circulation of euro notes and coins means that European Monetary Union (EMU), a project devised by Europe’s political elite over more than a generation, has finally come down to the street. The psychological and economic consequences of the launch of Europe’s single currency will be far- reaching. It will mark the final break from national currencies, promising a cultural revolution built on stable prices, enduring fiscal discipline, and lower interest rates. The origins of the euro go back to the late 1960s, when the Europeans were searching for a response to the upheaval in the Bretton Woods system, in which the US dollar was the dominant currency.
    [Show full text]
  • Problems the Adoption of the EURO in Lithuania
    Problems the adoption of the EURO in Lithuania Rima AUGULYT ö – Václav DUFALA Introduction The Euro zone (also called Euro Area , Euro system or Euro land ) is the subset of European Union member states which have adopted the euro, creating a currency union. The euro has replaced the former national currencies. The single currency was introduced on 1 January 1999, but existed in the first three years only as electronic money. On 1 January 2002 euro banknotes and coins were put into circulation in the euro area member states, and the central banks began to withdraw the national banknotes and coins. As from 1 March 2002 the euro is the only legal tender in the euro area member states. Thirteen euro area member states have a single currency, a common interest rate and a common central bank. The European Central Bank is responsible for monetary policy within the zone. 1. Official members In 1998 eleven EU member-states had met the convergence criteria, and the Euro zone came into existence with the official launch of the euro on 1 January 1999. Greece qualified in 2000 and was admitted on 1 January 2001. Physical coins and banknotes were introduced on 1 January 2002. Slovenia qualified in 2006 and was admitted on 1 January 2007 bringing total Euro zone membership to its current level of over 316 million people and thirteen member states. 1.1. Non-member states with formal euro agreements Monaco, San Marino and Vatican City also use the euro, although they are officially neither euro members nor members of the EU.
    [Show full text]
  • Exchange Rate Policy and Disinflation: the Spanish Experience in the ERM
    Exchange Rate Policy and Disinflation: The Spanish Experience in the ERM Philippe Bacchetta 1. INTRODUCTION PAIN is certainly one of the Western European countries that has experienced the most dramatic changes in the past 20 years. In addition to a political shift from dictatorship to democracy in the mid-1970s, the economic structure has been deeply reformed. These changes, including the process of European integration, have been generally beneficial to the nation. However, they have also posed important policy challenges. This has been particularly the case for monetary policy. The Spanish central bank, the Banco de Espan˜a, has been concerned with two major objectives associated with European monetary integration. The first and most important goal is nominal convergence, i.e. a reduction of inflation to reach German standards. The second objective is exchange rate stabilisation with respect to other currencies in the European Union (EU). The challenge has been to reconcile these aims with a rapidly changing economy affected in particular by trade, financial and capital account liberalisations. A specific problem has been the presence of significant capital inflows in the late 1980s. These inflows were caused by two main factors: first, the various reforms and especially EU membership in 1986; second, a tight monetary policy with high interest rates. Overall, the monetary policy challenge has been met only with mixed results. A strategy of exchange rate stabilisation was followed between 1987 and 1992, including membership in the Exchange Rate Mechanism (ERM) of the European Monetary System (EMS) after June 1989. This strategy appeared successful in the PHILIPPE BACCHETTA is from Studienzentrum Gerzensee, Switzerland, the Institut d’Ana´lisi Econo`mica (CSIC), Barcelona and CEPR, London.
    [Show full text]
  • Trade Invoicing in Major Currencies in the 1970S-1990S: Lessons for Renminbi Internationalization
    Trade Invoicing in Major Currencies in the 1970s-1990s: Lessons for Renminbi Internationalization Hiro Ito* Portland State University Masahiro Kawai** University of Tokyo December 15, 2015 Abstract: In this paper, we investigate how much a major national currency is used for trade invoicing by focusing primarily on the experiences of the U.S. dollar, the Japanese yen, and the Deutsche mark (DM) in the 1970s through the 1990s. We then attempt to draw lessons for China’s renminbi (RMB) internationalization. Our data on the shares of the three major currencies in export invoicing show that the dollar has unequivocally been a global invoicing currency, the DM was a major regional currency in Europe, while the yen has never been a global nor regional currency. DM invoicing was driven by European countries’ trade ties with Germany. In contrast, the yen was not and is still not widely used for trade invoicing by Asia-Oceania countries, even including Japan itself, despite the region’s strong trade ties with Japan. Our regression analysis on the determinants of the major currency share for trade invoicing (also including U.K. pound, the French franc, the Italian lira and the Swiss franc) in the 1970-1998 period suggests that the invoicing share of a major currency tends to be positively affected by the degree of other economies’ trade ties with the major currency country and negatively affected by the degree of their financial development or openness. Also, the major currency share for trade invoicing is affected by both the weight of the major currencies in the implicit currency baskets of other economies or these economies’ trade shares with major-currency zone countries.
    [Show full text]
  • ANNEXURE I (Para 1.8)
    69 ANNEXURE I (para 1.8) Summary of detailed events in the run up to the EMU and EURO 1988 EMU Committee established (Delors Committee) 1989 Stage I of EMU begins with the publication of the EMU Report. 1992 The Treaty of European Union is signed at Maastricht. Inter-alia the treaty lays down the convergence criteria for EU members to join the EMU 1993 Treaty on European Union (Maastricht Treaty) ratified by member states. 1994 Stage II of EMU begins with the establishment of the EMI in Frankfurt. End of 1996 The Council reports that the convergence criteria have still not been achieved for January 1, 1997 to be the first possible date for launch of Stage III. March 25, 1998 The European Commission and the EMI recommend an 11-member EMU launch at Stage III in view of the high degree of sustainable convergence achieved by these countries. May 2, 1998 The council adopts recommendation for the 11-member EMU; appoints the ECB Executive Board and decides to adopt current central parities for fixing irrevocably, parities for the currencies of the EMU participants. January 1, 1999 Stage III A of the EMU. Euro will become a legal currency of EMU countries. The exchange rates of the currencies of participating states will be irrevocably locked; the value of ECU will be determined and converted to euros at the rate of 1:1. The ECB and ESCB will take control of the monetary policy. Open market operations, new public debt issues and foreign exchange payments will be in euros. Stock exchange quotes will be in euros.
    [Show full text]