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Energy Trust of Oregon Smart Thermostat Pilot Evaluation

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Energy Trust of Oregon Smart Thermostat Pilot Evaluation Energy Trust of Oregon Smart Thermostat Pilot Evaluation Prepared for Energy Trust of Oregon Prepared by Apex Analytics, LLC 1525 Spruce Street, Suite 200 Boulder, CO 80302 (303)590-9888 www.apexanalyticsllc.com March 1, 2016 Acknowledgements The Evaluation Team would like to acknowledge the review, support, and advice given by two third- party quality assurance reviewers, Scott Pigg (Seventh Wave) and Ken Agnew (DNV-GL). APEX ANALYTICS, LLC Energy Trust of Oregon Smart Thermostat Pilot Evaluation Table of Contents 1. Executive Summary ............................................................................................................................ 1-1 2. Introduction ....................................................................................................................................... 2-1 2.1 Evaluation Goals and Objectives ............................................................................................ 2-2 3. Background ........................................................................................................................................ 3-1 3.1 Participant Selection and Recruitment .................................................................................. 3-4 3.1.1 Participation Requirements ............................................................................................ 3-4 3.1.2 Recruitment .................................................................................................................... 3-7 3.1.3 Application ...................................................................................................................... 3-8 3.1.4 Quality Assurance ........................................................................................................... 3-8 4. Evaluation Methodology .................................................................................................................... 4-9 4.1 Staff Interviews ....................................................................................................................... 4-9 4.2 Participant Surveys ................................................................................................................. 4-9 4.3 Billing Analysis ...................................................................................................................... 4-10 4.3.1 Data Sources ................................................................................................................. 4-10 4.3.2 Gas Utility Data ............................................................................................................. 4-11 4.3.3 Study Groups ................................................................................................................ 4-11 4.3.4 Attrition 4-13 4.3.5 Billing Analysis Methodology ........................................................................................ 4-14 5. Findings .............................................................................................................................................. 5-1 5.1 Recruitment, Participation, and Implementation .................................................................. 5-1 5.1.1 Characteristics of Participants and their Homes ............................................................ 5-6 5.2 Participant Installation ........................................................................................................... 5-8 5.3 User Experience .................................................................................................................... 5-12 5.3.1 Features, Settings, and Participant Usage .................................................................... 5-12 5.3.2 Participant Behavior ..................................................................................................... 5-14 5.3.3 Customer Satisfaction ................................................................................................... 5-16 5.3.4 Comfort of Participant Homes ...................................................................................... 5-20 5.3.5 User experience related to implementation staff QA site visits .................................. 5-23 5.3.6 Participant commitment to energy savings.................................................................. 5-24 5.4 Energy Savings ...................................................................................................................... 5-27 5.4.1 Sample Characteristics ................................................................................................. 5-28 5.4.2 Energy Savings .............................................................................................................. 5-33 5.4.3 Sensitivity Analysis ........................................................................................................ 5-38 5.4.4 Subgroup Analysis......................................................................................................... 5-39 6. Conclusions and Recommendations .................................................................................................. 6-1 7. Appendices ......................................................................................................................................... 7-1 i Table of Contents Energy Trust of Oregon Smart Thermostat Pilot Evaluation List of Figures Figure 1. Satisfaction rating with smart thermostat 1-4 Figure 2. Nest and Lyric thermostats 3-1 Figure 3. Smart Thermostat Pilot recruitment process 3-6 Figure 4. Two-stage Sample Randomization Design 3-8 Figure 5. Pilot Two-Stage Randomization Results 4-13 Figure 6. Smart thermostat installation duration 5-8 Figure 7. Ease of smart thermostat installation 5-9 Figure 8. Satisfaction related to installation of the smart thermostat 5-10 Figure 9. Participants that experienced installation issues 5-11 Figure 10. Source of support for participants that experienced installation issues 5-11 Figure 11. Percentage of survey respondents finding specific features somewhat or very useful 5-13 Figure 12. Participants enabling occupancy-based settings (Auto-Away/Nest; Geofencing/Lyric) 5-14 Figure 13. Frequency of adjusting smart thermostat settings or using thermostat features 5-15 Figure 14. Additional non-installation issues with smart thermostat 5-16 Figure 15. Percent of all participants experiencing specific non-installation issues 5-17 Figure 16. Source of support for participants with smart thermostat non-installation issues 5-17 Figure 17. Satisfaction rating with smart thermostat 5-18 Figure 18. Satisfaction rating of participation in Smart Thermostat Pilot 5-19 Figure 19. Likelihood to recommend smart thermostat 5-19 Figure 20. If not involved in the Pilot, would you have returned the smart thermostat by now? 5-20 Figure 21. Comfort of home temperature compared to pre-smart thermostat period 5-21 Figure 22. Favorite aspect of the smart thermostats 5-22 Figure 23. Ease of smart thermostat operation – schedule and temperature adjustment 5-22 Figure 24. Ease of smart thermostat operation – overall user interface 5-23 Figure 25. Reasons for Smart Thermostat Pilot participation 5-25 Figure 26. Energy savings expectations 5-26 Figure 27. Does the $250 smart thermostat price tag make sense? 5-27 Figure 28. Distribution of pre-Pilot mean annual gas usage in therms by study group, for each treatment and comparison group pair 5-29 Figure 29. Box plots of monthly distribution of gas usage by study group, for each treatment and comparison group pair, January-April 2014 and 2015 5-32 Figure 30. Estimated pre- and post-installation mean annual gas usage for Nest recipients and randomized comparison homes 5-34 Figure 31. Estimated pre- and post-installation mean annual gas usage for Lyric recipients and randomized comparison homes 5-34 ii Table of Contents Energy Trust of Oregon Smart Thermostat Pilot Evaluation Figure 32. Estimated pre- and post-installation mean annual gas usage for Nest intention-to-treat and randomized comparison homes 5-36 Figure 33. Estimated pre- and post-installation mean annual gas usage for Lyric intention-to-treat and randomized comparison homes 5-36 Figure 34. Estimated pre- and post-installation mean annual gas usage for Nest recipients and matched comparison homes 5-37 Figure 35. Estimated pre- and post-installation mean annual gas usage for Lyric recipients and matched comparison homes 5-38 Figure 36. Comparison of average annual gas savings between the final participant sample, employees and contractors removed, homes with thermostats reportedly still installed, and homes with no major changes reported 5-41 Figure 37. Comparison of average annual gas savings by pre-Pilot annual gas use 5-42 Figure 38. Comparison of average annual gas savings by number of occupants 5-43 Figure 39. Comparison of average annual gas savings by geographic region 5-44 Figure 40. Comparison of average annual gas savings by furnace type 5-45 Figure 41. Comparison of average annual gas savings by secondary heating system 5-46 Figure 42. Comparison of average annual gas savings by prior thermostat type 5-47 Figure 43. Comparison of average annual gas savings by occupancy detection status 5-48 List of Tables Table 1. Comparison between Nest Heat Pump Control Pilot and Smart Thermostat Pilot ..................... 2-1 Table 2. Primary researchable questions and the associated tasks .......................................................... 2-3 Table 3. Features and naming conventions between the smart thermostats
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