Editor's Welcome

It seems like only 5 minutes ago we were celebrating the New Year, but now Cheltenham has been and gone and the flat season is on the horizon.

I hope you enjoyed the free tips I sent you during Cheltenham. Standard members should have just scraped a profit by taking the prices but lost 0.6 of a point at SP.

For Gold members as well as the 9/1 winner on day 1 we also sent them a 33/1 winner on day 4 and a few placers along the way which returned 35.6 points profit at SP.

All of the selections came from Nick Hardman who had a huge Cheltenham and cleared over 100 points profit over the 4 days to the advised prices.

If you like a bet on the big races, you like making big profits and are patient enough to wait for big winners then I urge you to consider following Nick Hardman.

All his selections are posted in the Betting School Insiders Forum or if you like to only bet at the big festivals then his Festival Tips service provides selections just at the big events, like Cheltenham, Aintree etc.

In this month’s mag we have Nick Hardman looking at trainers that do well at the end of the National Hunt season and our Acorns column now taken over by John Burke looks at systems for the new flat season. By the way if you would like to receive all the selections for the systems we feature each month we will mail them out to you each day for just £5.

This is an introductory price to test the water and to see how many readers would prefer us to find the selections for them. We'll work out a proper price when we know what the demand is, of course if you sign up for a fiver we won’t put your price up unless you cancel and re-join.

You can sign up here http://www.oncourseprofits.com/selections-found-for-you/

We have an interview with a guy who was with the Winning Line during the glory years, Winning Line which was a huge tipping service in the 90's. I actually met Steve in a London pub a few weeks back and had a very interesting chat and reminisce.

We have a profile on a hero of the old days and the usual product reviews and tipster top ten.

And by the way the review team have made their first firm recommendation in a long time!

Aintree is next up and I'll try and send you some tips for that.

All the best.

Darren Power PS: If you've picked up this issue from a friend and would like to subscribe for free Click Here

Cover image credit: By Vegas Eddie [CC BY 2.0 (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/2.0)], via Wikimedia Commons

Click Here to Join Carl for this Weeks ITV Bets

National Hunt End of Season Trainers to Follow

Seasonal betting systems are something I am a big fan of. The early part of the National Hunt season is often seen as a difficult one for punters as we have the crossover between the end of the flat and the start of the jumps.

However, some trainers have their runners fit and raring to go from the offset and identifying these trainers and the type of runners that they fire from the get-go can be a profitable exercise. Nigel Twiston-Davies is an excellent example.

This applies to flat trainers too and the likes of Richard Fahey are usually fast starters. It is no secret that the likes of Nigel Twiston-Davies and Richard Fahey are quick off the mark in their respective codes. But what about the end of the season?

This angle is often overlooked and I am going to try and unearth some trainers to follow for the end of the jumps season. This usually coincides with the ground firming up but also coincides with some of the big festivals like Aintree, Punchestown and Cheltenham. I am particularly interested in the final two months of the season, March and April. I have crunched the numbers to try and uncover some potentially profitable angles. Without further ado, let’s take a look at those trainers and the race conditions where their runners excel at the backend of the jumps season. Willie Mullins

Surprise, surprise it’s Willie Mullins first up. All his runners are overbet these days but backing his March and April runners blind since 2005 would have actually turned a profit. In fact, the Betfair SP profit is spectacular. However, this is most likely due to one or two that went off at big odds on the exchanges and in order to create something with more substance to follow, we need to dig a little deeper.

First let’s take a look at the performance of all of his runners in the months of March and April since 2005.

Now let us look at those results if we break them down by race type:

As you can see, it is the bumper and hurdles runners that we need to focus on in the first instance.

These have a combined record of 259-1266 (20.45% strike rate) and realise a profit of £294.01 at Betfair SP. At this point it is the strike rate that interests me most and I am going to see how this can be increased. So, we will begin with the hurdles. The first thing to note is that his runners racing over 2m 5f and further do not do particularly well in terms of win rate and profit.

Eliminating these leaves us with the following results:

That’s a pretty impressive 38% return on investment at Betfair SP.

We could just leave it there, but I want to see if there are any other patterns lurking beneath those impressive stats. It is best to concentrate on those with small to moderate experience over the smaller obstacles and sticking to the runners with between 0 and 4 career wins over hurdles does mean we are looking at a small improvement in the overall figures. The juvenile 4yo hurdles have a decent 23% strike rate but they are not profitable and that probably means they are typically overbet.

By concentrating on those runners aged 5yo to 9yo we are left with the following figures:

As you can see, we sacrifice a fair few winners, but the ROI is now up at 58% at Betfair SP.

These runners are profitable in both handicap and non-handicap races. The non- handicappers have a 26% strike rate and the handicappers have a 17% strike rate, although the latter show a bigger profit, suggesting a fair few have gone in at decent prices.

We can sneak a bit more profit if we stick with those runners with less than 9 starts that season:

The table above shows that the strike rate is highest amongst those runners making a late seasonal debut or having run just 1 to 4 times that season.

Finally, I want to see which tracks, if any, Willie Mullins sends out most of his end of season winners. Several tracks are notably in terms of success and profit.

These include Cheltenham, specifically the festival, Punchestown, Gowran Park, Cork and Fairyhouse.

Combining the runners from these tracks gives the following results:

We are down to just 80 winners and the strike rate is pretty much the same as we have seen throughout this research on the Mullins hurdles in March and April, but this time we see an incredible 89% ROI at Betfair SP.

Now we can switch our attention back to the other runners who show a profit in the latter end of the jumps season and they are the bumper horses.

As a reminder, here is their performance since 2005:

We can improve on those figures if we concentrate on those having their first run in a bumper and those that have had a run in such races but finished in the first five last time out. In other words, we can eliminate those that did not run well.

Next, we can factor in the age of the runners and it is the 4yo and 5yo bumper runners that do best in terms of profit and return on investment. We lose a few winners along the way from the 6yo and older runners, but we end up with the following figures:

In terms of favoured tracks, the Mullins bumper horses that qualify do exceptionally well at Punchestown where they have a record of 16-56 (29% strike rate) for a level stakes profit of £50.82 at Betfair SP.

Jennie Candish

From the obvious of Willie Mullins to a shrewd trainer that may slip under the radar. Jennie Candish has proven to be a profitable trainer to follow in March and April in the last 5 consecutive seasons.

As you can see, she has a near 20% strike rate since 2005 and backing all her runners would have seen you make a tasty £200.45 to level £1 stakes at Betfair SP at an exceptional ROI of 77%.

Winners and profits alike have come in chases, hurdles and bumper races.

The chasers do particularly well and are operating at a near 30% strike rate. Winners and profits could also be found in both handicap and non-handicap races, with the handicappers having a better strike rate.

We can improve on those figures by sticking to the races run over 2m ½f to 3m 2f and sticking to fields of 5 to 18 runners.

That gives us the following figures:

We don’t really need to do much more with this as winners have come in all race classes from Class 1 down to Class 6, chases, hurdles, bumpers, handicaps and non- handicaps.

However, the final piece of the puzzle appears to lie with the Betfair SP of the winners. Jennie Candish has had 37 go off at odds of 23.0 or higher on the exchanges and they have all been beaten.

When we factor that in, the final results look like this:

When we look at the yearly breakdown we see a high level of consistency and this one has gone straight into my tracker:

Harry Fry

Harry Fry makes it onto our list of trainers to follow in March and April courtesy of the following results:

He is operating at a 21% strike rate since 2013 when he first held a full training licence and the best news is that last season saw him post his best figures to date with 20 winners from 69 runners, producing a profit of £48.00 on the exchanges.

I am quite keen just to follow him again this time around but, as ever, it is worth exploring those figures a little deeper.

The results can be improved upon if we stick to races up to a maximum of 3 miles in distance. He has had a winner over 3m 6f, but that is the only one that has won over a trip in excess of 3 miles and altogether those runners have a 1-17 record.

We should also concentrate on the lower grade racing as shown in the table below:

He has struggled at the highest level and his Class 1 runners have a win strike rate under 10%. The Class 2 runners’ fare better with a strike rate of around 16% but they have yet to turn a profit at industry and Betfair SP. However, those Harry Fry runners racing in Class 3, 4 and 5 events fare much better and I am inclined to focus on those with a watching brief on the other race classes.

So, sticking to Class 3, 4 and 5 races over trips up to and including 3 miles gives the following results for the Harry Fry runners in the months of March and April:

As you will see, these runners have a 26% strike rate, but more importantly, they have produced a profit at Betfair SP every year since 2013.

The table above shows us that the winners have come in chase, hurdles and bumper races so there is no real need to concentrate on any one particular race type.

One other thing worth noting is that his juvenile 4yo runners are just 1-12 so I would be inclined to remove these and go with the horses aged 5yo or older. I am inclined to leave it there seeing as the winners have flowed in all race types and in both handicap and non-handicap races. It is a decent set of results and gives you some decent coverage in lower grade races which can often be profitable with the bookies focussing on the big spring festivals such as Cheltenham, Aintree and Punchestown.

For our On Course Profits Gold members this month Nick takes a look at 3 additional trainers who perform during this "difficult" period. You can upgrade to On Course Profits Gold here... http://www.oncourseprofits.com/upgrade-to-gold/

If you'd like to bet alongside Dr Nick at all the big meetings this year, check out his Festival Tips service which made 552 points profit since January 2016 - Click Here.

A Q and A with Steve of Winning Online

1. Hi Steve and many thanks for joining us this month. Would you start by telling our readers a little about yourself and your background?

Hello.

It’s rare I’m ever asked to talk about myself so I hope On Course Profits readers find this Q&A interesting.

My introduction to the betting industry came straight out of university (a few days after I’d finished my final exams actually) when I landed a sort of admin/logistics/general- do-anything job at a company called The Winning Line. That was in the summer of 1995 and at the time The Winning Line was Britain’s biggest and most feared horse racing tipster business.

Back then, and for the next 10 years, I was on first name terms with many well-known racing professionals such as Mark Coton (Racing Post Pricewise founder), Nick Mordin (writer and systems whizz), Dave Nevison (author, broadcaster and professional gambler) and Patrick Veitch (someone who has relieved the bookmakers of millions of pounds as your readers will no doubt know).

I even used to call Lester Piggott early in the morning during the Flat season to discover which horses should be passed on to our members.

Needless to say it was a fantastic, real-world education for someone fresh out of university (with a geography degree!) and I stayed at The Winning Line for a very happy decade.

What have I been up to since I left?

Well, from 2005 until now, I’ve continued to try and help regular punters and extra income seekers generate more financial freedom from horse racing, sports betting, trading on the betting exchanges, as well as occasionally dipping my toes into other areas which personally interest me like financial betting and alternative investments such as Peer-To-Peer lending.

2. So, from The Winning Line to Winning Online, what led to the move and what does Winning Online offer its readers and subscribers?

The catalyst for me ultimately leaving The Winning Line was due to a takeover of the business by a stock market listed health and leisure company called Crown Sports plc. The upshot was it led to me getting an insight into the corporate world which I didn’t like at all.

I’d never previously felt I was employed at The Winning Line (we were a very small and tight-knit team), or considered what we were doing to be complicated or even hard work. Then all of a sudden I had senior management and bean counters from the plc wanting me to compile budget forecasts and go to countless meetings. It certainly wasn’t my cup of tea so I decided to branch out on my own.

In terms of Winning Online (www.winningonline.co.uk), my focus is to always offer professional, elite quality income-boosting opportunities which I spend a lot of time researching and developing.

Most of these winning opportunities revolve around betting-related advisory services covering greyhounds, horse racing, football and potentially other sports such as golf and tennis.

This leaning towards betting services is partly due to my years at The Winning Line, but also the fact that punters are no different from everyone else nowadays – they’re time poor. So I tend to stick to a very simple approach of tracking down specialists in a particular sport or betting niche who then supply me with bets which I then share with subscribers. Delivered by email and text message, all members have to do is place the bets and get on with their day.

As you can see, I’m basically a matchmaker between winning professionals and regular punters. I’m not a professional gambler and I’m never the person who advises bets or comes up with specific strategies for any advisory services, publications or software I create and offer within Winning Online.

3. Does Winning Online look to offer up possible solutions solely for those interested in horse racing or do you feel that you can offer other advice and opportunities for those interested in other sports too?

Winning Online doesn’t restrict itself to one particular sport or type of opportunity.

Yes, because horse racing is still a major betting sport, it’s always on my radar.

For example, for over a year now I’ve been in close contact with a couple of machine learning experts – one guy is a data scientist and the other runs his own risk analytics and sports data intelligence consultancy. My aim in 2018 is to launch a brand new advisory service called The Winning Machine where bets are generated by high-tech algorithms.

I actually find the whole area of artificial intelligence and machine learning really fascinating and human tipsters certainly need to be on their guard! I’ve written a piece called The Dinosaur Report about this very subject which your readers can access by visiting www.winningonline.co.uk.

Aside from horse racing, I’m constantly delving into lots of different sports and other money-making areas to see what opportunities I can potentially introduce to Winning Online.

Last autumn for instance I teamed up with two of Britain and Ireland’s leading greyhound professionals. With their help, insights and shortcuts to finding winners (and losers as well for successful lay bets), I wrote a guide in January called Greyhound Wealth Secrets – Your Ultimate Profit Blueprint for Generating Tax-Free Cash Backing, Laying, Dutching and Forecast Betting the Dogs.

Also, I persuaded “The Inside Man” and “The Dog Scientist” (I’ve been forced to use aliases to protect their identities) to pass on their best personal bets which they’ve been doing since mid-November. And after monitoring their performance and being extremely impressed, the Top Dogs specialist greyhound advisory service has recently gone live.

Just to say, if your readers are interested in how they can win money from greyhounds using either the blueprint or the Top Dogs selective bets, please get them to call me directly on my personal mobile – 07917 356942 – or email me to [email protected].

4. Do you regularly bet yourself? What style of approach do you take to your betting?

I’ll keep this answer very short and sweet as I don’t want to reveal too much about my own personal betting activities.

Suffice to say that if you had access to a lot of privileged information, some of which takes months of due diligence to release to the public, wouldn’t you take advantage of it yourself?

5. Would you tell us a little more about your Peer to Peer Business Lending Blueprint? How did this come about and what are your thoughts on Peer to Peer lending? How do you feel it can be mutually beneficial?

I’m an avid reader, especially of the financial press, so when Peer-To-Peer was getting some exposure during the credit crunch around 10 years ago, I did recruit a banker to help me write a publication about the online pioneer of P2P consumer loans called Zopa. I lost a few grand on this project because it wasn’t a commercial success (not by a long chalk!). By the way, as an information publisher I’m always looking to take low- risk bets with my ventures – some work well, others don’t.

Anyway, I’d always really liked the P2P concept, plus I had some spare time on my hands, so I revisited it again in August 2016, found a business banking expert and wrote The Peer-To-Peer Business Lending Blueprint. The blueprint was actually more about me wanting to learn about P2P business lending for my own personal investing. Obviously, with the way interest rates have been at rock bottom levels for so long, trying to find some sort of yield on any spare capital has been challenging.

If you look at my Winning Online logo it says ‘Extra Income Solutions’ underneath. And this sums up why my products and services are an eclectic mix. They don’t necessarily gel together perfectly, but they’re not really meant to. I’m my own boss so I decide what I’m going to do, and much of the time, this is based on propositions and opportunities I find interesting… and obviously, potentially lucrative!

6. Back to the horses, we are sure that you are aware that the gambling industry is regularly being criticised for its treatment of its customers with “restrictions” and “closed” accounts often in the headlines. What would you suggest to punters who find themselves in these situations with their gambling accounts?

I know first-hand what it’s like to suffer the same heavy-handed stake restrictions on racing bets. It’s unfair but there’s little point wasting one’s energy getting angry about it. Some business associates of mine are really pro-active in this area organising petitions to the Gambling Commission and making determined efforts to try and get UK bookmakers to adopt a different attitude. Whether any good will ever come of this, well, I’m not so sure.

How someone reacts to restrictions on racing bets depends upon how serious they are about their betting and how much money they’re potentially losing by not being able to capture value odds and get their bets placed with bookmakers.

I know professional backers who use betting shop teams to avoid undue detection. Another common tactic, although you have to be very well organised with your logistics and IT know-how, is to run multiple clone accounts in the names of friends, family and other third parties.

For most semi-serious punters who have got caught up with restrictions, the obvious alternative, and probably the simplest solution, is just to use Betfair and other betting exchanges.

7. A common gripe of many a punter is the number of races and poor quality meetings very often with low levels of prize money. Many race goers would rather see fewer better quality races. Is there anything that you would like to see changed within the horse racing industry and why?

Truthfully, I don’t really concern myself with the way horse racing is run, the internal politics or the future of the industry.

I’m only interested in supplying betting information to help punters win on horses.

8. New and old punters alike often struggle to make a success of their betting. If you could give them one piece of advice to improve their profitability what would it be?

I’ve been around regular punters for the last 23 years and if I’m brutally honest, the vast majority of them are far too emotional, ill-disciplined and they don’t take their betting anywhere near as seriously as the professionals who do make a profit.

My one piece of advice?

Well, it’s two actually - control your emotions and think long-term.

I’ve seen it so many times where members have signed up for one of the advisory services I’ve been involved with, and despite all the welcome information provided about patience, prudent risk management and maintaining a long-term commitment, they just quit after an early setback. So yes, if you’re using tipsters to help or improve your profits, don’t get too elated after winners, or too down in the dumps after losers, and more than anything else, don’t chop and change every few weeks.

We all know the phrase “patience pays dividends”, and in my experience, it’s absolutely true.

9. The Winning Line is obviously remembered by many from back in the day :) so, are there any anecdotes you would like to / can share with our readers?

I mentioned Lester Piggott earlier. He was an absolute gentleman from the moment I went down to his home in Newmarket when we first recruited him for The Winning Line.

The only slight problem I had was getting used to his voice.

My job was to call him very early in the morning during the Flat season to ask about bets. But because many times the names of horses weren’t straightforward to spell, and I was at home and didn’t have a newspaper in front of me, I’d often arrive in the office, the boss would say “what’s Lester given today?” and my reply would be “I’ve no idea. I only know the race and the number. Let me grab the Racing Post to find out”.

10. What do you consider to be the highlight of your experience to date? Do you have any personal racing / betting experiences which on reflection bring a smile, or for that matter any which bring a grimace; you can share with our readers?

The highlight for me over the last 23 years is the fact I’ve never felt like I’ve had a proper job. It’s been more of a lifestyle, a lot of fun and I’ve been incredibly lucky to have met so many interesting characters!

The brains behind The Winning Line was a guy called Stephen Winstanley who very sadly passed away in 2007. He taught me a lot about betting, business, marketing and punter psychology.

I mention him because I recall driving home from the office one time when we’d been going through a really rough patch of results. Members had been chewing our ears off with complaints. When the phone rang you didn’t want to pick it up! Anyway, Stephen went maximum bet on a horse – I think it might have been Arctic Kinsman – and as I was driving home my mobile rang and it was Stephen. The horse had won and all the recent losses had been recouped. That one bet meant a lot to us all.

Let me also mention the horses which The Winning Line used to own and syndicate because they probably gave us more grimaces than smiles. A classic example, and this is imprinted on my mind forever, was when a horse called Stretarez ran at Chester in the Ormonde Stakes in 1998. It was available at 50/1 and we didn’t advise our members to back it. You guessed right. It won. Talk about egg on our face!

Another downer was when Teeton Mill (who’d previously won the Hennessy and King George) slipped his hock when he was favourite for the Cheltenham Gold Cup and pulled up never to race again.

11. What do you do to relax and unwind? Do you any interests outside of the world of horse racing?

Doing what I do for a living certainly isn’t 9-to-5. And the way the sporting calendar and betting opportunities have exploded over the years, it’s very easy to fall into the trap of working all hours, 7 days a week, especially when you work from home.

I live in Buxton, Derbyshire (yes, where the water comes from) and I’m surrounded by the Peak District. So when I haven’t got my bum glued to my office chair, I try and stretch my legs, hit the hills and get some fresh air.

I watch a fair bit of sport, I’m a big reader and I’ve been known to do a bit of fishing.

Also, I hit 45 at the end of 2017 so staying fit (well relatively!) is important to me and I actually really enjoy it. Swimming, pilates and something called CrossFit are pretty much my weekly ritual.

Okay, thanks for inviting me to share a bit about me and my experiences. Your readers can contact me anytime about my current winning opportunities by calling me directly on my personal mobile – 07917 356942 – or sending me an email to [email protected].

Join Winning Online Today!

The Craven Meeting: The Flat Season Kicks into Gear!

The British Flat Season begins with a bang on Saturday March 24th with the two-day Lincoln Meeting at Doncaster but for the next couple of weeks its more of whimper than a bang, that is until the middle of April and the three-day Bet365 sponsored Craven Meeting, which this year start on Tuesday 17th April.

For many flat racing aficionado’s, the start of this meeting is the real start of the flat season and not Doncaster.

The meeting hosts the first of the big Guineas Trials with the Craven Stakes and Nell Gwyn Stakes as well as the Fielden Stakes which was won by Golden Horn in 2015 and which launched his three-year-old career which would see the colt go onto win the Derby & Arc later in the season.

The highlight on day one is the Listed Fielden Stakes. On Day two the feature races are The Earl of Sefton Stakes and the European Free Handicap. The final day features the Group 3, bet365 Craven Stakes. It has traditionally been seen as one of the key trials for the Qipco 2,000 Guineas given the race is run over the same C&D as the first colts classic of the season.

Craven Meeting Stats

This article looks at some of the key stats from recent Craven Meetings and will focus in on those trainers who have good records at the meeting in recent years. To keep the data as relevant as possible I have looked at the results from 2013 to 2017 which contain the following - 90 winners from 878 runners 244 placed.

As ever the excellent www.horseracebase.com with its mine of detailed information and stats is the starting point for this month’s investigation.

Before looking at some of trainer stats let’s look at a couple of general meeting stats. The fate of the favourites and experience of the course.

Clear & Joint Favourites - 34 winners 100 runners 34% +7.49 A/E 1.05 68 placed 68%.

Favourite backers have actually done reasonably well making a profit to industry SP and the A/E of 1.05 is actually very decent.

Runs at Track 3+

As the above figures show, those horses with plenty of experience of the Rowley Course are clearly worth more than a second look at this meeting.

A good win strike rate, a profit to both ISP & BSP and the A/E figure show they are being underestimated by the betting market and outperforming by 61%.

Trainer Stats

The top five trainers in terms of number are John Gosden. Richard Hannon, Saeed Bin Suroor, Charlie Hills & Kevin Ryan.

This group of trainers have won 46% of the races at the meeting from just 23% of the runners and combined they have produced:

41 winners from 201 runners 20% +55.1 A/E 1.31 81 placed 41%.

In particular it looks worth looking at runners trained by John Gosden, Kevin Ryan and Saeed Bin Suroor. Let’s look to see if we can find any profitable angles for the big five.

Starting with the stand out trainer on the numbers with almost double the number of winners to his nearest rival.

John Gosden

No difference in the figures between his runners in non-handicaps or handicaps. If there is angle it may pay once again to concentrate on his runners that finished in the first three in their last race as they have produced:

A 48%-win strike rate is excellent as is the ROI to both ISP and BSP.

Micro Angle

Trainer: John Gosden Last Time Out Placing: 1st, 2nd or 3rd

Richard Hannon

The trainer is next in terms of number of winners but what of his runners at the meeting should we be focusing on. Look at past years it may well pay to concentrate on his Class 1 & Class 2, non-handicap runner’s, that were having their first run for 90+days.

It looks like Richard Hannon does really target this meeting with his runners. In particular not those of his runners without a recent run.

Micro Angle

Trainer: Richard Hannon Race Type: Non-Handicap Race Class: 1 or 2 only Runs Last 90 Days: 0

Charlie Hills

Not many angles for Charlie Hills in all honesty. Although the market is usually decent guide to his runner’s chances.

Micro Angle

Trainer: Charlie Hills Age: 3 & 4-year-olds only Odds SP: 8/1 & under

Kevin Ryan

All the trainer’s runners at the meeting need respecting but just concentrating on his sprinters and 4-year-old + horses has produced the following:

Micro Angle

Trainer: Kevin Ryan Distance: 5F & 6F only Age: 4-year-old +

Saeed Bin Suroor

As the first set of figures show the Saeed Bin Suroor horses at the meeting all need serious consideration. Like Charlie Hills, the market is a good guide to his runner’s chances as those going off 8/1 & under are:

7 winners from 22 runners 32% +16.75 A/E 1,56 11 placed 50%.

Interestingly all seven winners were having their first run at the course:

Micro Angle

Trainer: Saeed Bin Suroor Odd SP: 9/1 & under Runs at Track: 0

Other Interesting Trainer Stats

A couple of trainers not covered above and whose runners are worth noting are John Quinn and Martyn Meade. They haven’t had many starters in the period under investigation but those that have gone to the meeting, have gone well.

Summary

There are micro angles for all the top five performing trainers. In particular it looks worth noting John Gosden angle and also any runners at the meeting from the Martyn Meade and John Quinn stables.

Like many of type of festival stat articles. The above figures are based on historic data and whilst history has a good habit of repeating itself, it often doesn’t.

Well I hope you found this informative and it with a bit of luck it will point you in the way of some nice priced winners at the Craven Meeting.

Until next month.

John

Jimmy Fitzgerald - A True Giant of the Turf

The end of the 2018 Cheltenham Festival and this year’s Gold Cup got me thinking back to 1985 when Forgive ‘N Forget, trained by adopted Yorkshireman Jimmy Fitzgerald, won jump racing’s ‘Blue Riband’ race. This month’s article is a short look back on the Irishman’s career and some of the great horses he trained.

It will be 14 years this October since Jimmy Fitzgerald sadly passed way after a long illness, at just 69. For me and many others who began their racing and betting journey in the mid to late 1980s. He was part of our life and we remember him fondly. But for those of the younger generation you may have not realised just how great a trainer he was.

Born in 1935, ironically in the Tipperary village of Horse and Jockey now officially known by its Irish name ‘An Marcach’, which literally means ‘the rider’. Jimmy Fitzgerald was somehow always destined to work in horse racing.

He left his native Ireland as a teenager, according to the late Tom O’Ryan, “on the back of a party dare”, and well dare or not, it certainly paid off for the Tipperary man who worked as a stable lad for Ripon trainer Bobby Renton and led up the 1956 Scottish Grand National Winner Bar Point. A race which would also provide him with his biggest win as a jockey a decade later. A relatively successful career in the saddle followed with 123 winners, including victory in the 1965 Scottish National on Brasher, which was the last Scottish National to be run at the now defunct Bogside racecourse in Ayrshire. Sadly, the ‘ups and downs’ of being a jumps jockey here exemplified the following year when Fitzgerald fractured his skull in terrible fall, which brought an end to his riding career at the age of 31.

Not long after he turned his hand to training and starting out from his Norton Grange stable, near Malton, in the late-summer of 1969, with just four horses. He had his first winner, with only his second ever runner, when the aptly named Archer hit the target at Market Rasen.

His journey to training greatness had begun as he would turn his Norton Grange yard into what Tom O’Ryan described as a “centre of excellence’.

Not just in equine terms but as great grounding for future jockeys and trainers.

The Trainer the Bookies Feared

The Fitzgerald yard was a notable gambling stable that’s for sure and in fact some of the best executed gambles of the 1980s were planned out of Norton Grange.

I will mention two of the biggest ones here: Forgive ‘N Forget when winning the Coral Golden Hurdle Final at the Cheltenham Festival in 1983 and Galway Blaze when landing an ante-post gamble to take the 1985 Hennessey Gold Cup at odds of 11/2. It’s with the latter that I will begin.

Galway Blaze has become a bit of forgotten horse but I doubt there has ever been an easier winner of the old Hennessey Gold Cup than the 9-year-old. Watch the video of the race,

with Mark Dwyer looking around and behind him coming to four out with his horse tanking along on the heels of the leaders before finally winning the race by an easy 10 lengths, still being hard held by his jockey Mark Dwyer. He was fairly lightly raced for his age and hadn’t been the easiest horse to keep sound. But Fitzgerald somehow managed to get him into the race off just 10st. Looking back in hindsight the horse was the biggest handicap certainty of all time.

Still it was a testimony to the brilliance of the trainer to be able to get him to win a race like the Hennessey Gold Cup on the back of such a long absence after just on prep run at Market Rasen. As soon as the bookies opened the ante-post betting on the race he was being backed down from 33/1 down to single figure odds on the day, I think I managed to get on at 16s, even though there was a doubt on the morning of the race as to whether he would actually run.

His jockey Mark Dwyer believed that Galway Blaze was as good as Gold Cup Winners Forgive ‘n Forget and Jodami and I have to say I was of the opinion that he would have won a Gold Cup if he had kept sound. Sadly, my theory would never get a chance to be tested as we never saw Galway Blaze on the racecourse again after his Newbury win.

Forgive ‘n Forget is of course rightly known as the winner of the 1985 Cheltenham Gold Cup who sadly lost his life in the same race when still in contention three years later. But slightly forgotten is the almighty gamble that he landed to win, what is now known as the Pertemps Handicap Hurdle, at the 1983 Cheltenham Festival. Watch the race here:

Fitzgerald and owner Tim Kilroe worked on a plan to land one of the most competitive handicaps at Cheltenham. Lest we forget but Forgive ‘n Forget had been bought from legendary gambler Barney Curley which plenty of bookmakers were not aware of.

The Forgive ‘N Forget purchase all came about after the death of Baby King at Kempton, a horse Fitzgerald always considered to be the best horse he had ever trained. After the sad loss of such an exciting young chaser. Curley rang to offer condolences to Fitzgerald and told him he had a horse that could fill the gap left by Baby King’s untimely demise. The rest, as they say is now racing history. As soon as the ante-post betting on the race opened the horse was backed off the boards and was sent off at odds of just 5/2 in a field of 23 runners with a 19-year-old jockey Mark Dwyer in the saddle. The coolness that the jockey would show that day in producing the horse to win at just the right time would be in evidence throughout the rest of his riding career.

It still rates as one of the biggest Cheltenham festival gambles of all time with connections reputed to have taken almost £1m out of the bookies satchels.

More Big Race Success

FitzGerald had six Cheltenham Festival winners, including Canny Danny in the Sun Alliance Chase, Danish Flight in the Arkle and Uncle Ernie in the Coral Cup in 1997. While other high-profile jumps racing winners include the likes of Sybillin, a high class two-mile chaser, with wins in the Tingle Creek Trophy and the Victor Chandler Chase in 1993 and Androma in winning the Scottish Grand National in 1984 & 1995. He remains the only trainer to have led up, rode and trained a Scottish Grand National winner.

Although rightly we acknowledge his expertise at training jump horses he was very much a dual-purpose trainer who trained 350 winners on the flat.

Here are just a few of the big handicap winners he had on the level:

 1985 - Kayudee – Cesarewitch Handicap – 7/1  1987 – Treasure Hunter – Northumberland Plate – 20/1  1989 – Sapience – Ebor Handicap – 15/2  1990 – Evichsta - Lincoln Handicap -33/1  1990 - Trainglot - Cesarewitch Handicap – 13/2

The latter gained the first of his notable wins in 1990, when he captured the Cesarewitch under an all action ride from Willie Carson off just 7-12 to land another big race gamble for the trainer in the process.

Trainglot would also go on to finish 4th in an Ascot Gold Cup and, like stablemate Uncle Ernie, also went onto land the Coral Cup at Cheltenham in 1996 to show his versatility as a dual-purpose trainer.

Not Just the Horses

Besides the long and successful partnership with jockey Mark Dwyer, FitzGerald was also instrumental in guiding the fledgling career of the mercurial Kieran Fallon. Other leading racing figures to have emerged from the Norton Grange Centre of Excellence included the likes of Ronnie O'Leary, Peter Niven. John Quinn and Richard Fahey.

Top flat trainer Ralph Beckett also spent some of his early career under Fitzgerald, as did Irish trainer Liz Doyle and French trainer Mikel Dezangles. The latter was also the godson of top owner the Marquesa de Moratalla. The Marquesa had a fair few horses with the trainer including Trainglot and Sybillin.

After 33 years with a licence and about 1,200 winners, he handed over the keys to his Norton Grand stables to his son Tim at the end of February 2003.

In Tom O’Ryan’s eulogy at the trainer’s funeral he described FitzGerald as "a giant of the turf, a training legend, a great friend to so many". It’s hard to disagree with those words or with trainer Kim Bailey’s view that Jimmy Fitzgerald was in the top three jumps trainers of all time.

April Acorns:

Whilst, all the talk has been about the Cheltenham Festival and rightly so it’s worth reminding ourselves that the turf flat season begins at Doncaster with the Lincoln Meeting on Saturday 24th of March.

April is a busy month with both codes in full flow on both sides of the Irish Sea. It can be tricky month for punting on the turf. It’s one of those transition months. A month that can see heavy ground one week and good to firm the next and the weather is just one of the conundrums that punters face in their quest to find winners and of course profits.

The other big problem that flat punters face is assessing a horse’s fitness. That’s where trainers come in. Some trainers have their horses ready to win in the month whilst others will have their horses ready to roll later in the spring.

This month I am going to look at three trainers whose runners have been worth noting in April. As ever the excellent www.horseracebase.com with its mine of detailed information and stats is the starting point for this month’s investigation.

To get a decent sample size and also to keep the stats as relevant as possible, I have concentrated on trainers who have had at least 50 runners during the period under research and also taken into consideration only the results from 2014.

So, who are these trainers that are worthy of consideration.

Let’s start with Michael Easterby:

Michael Easterby

Below are the figures for all the trainer’s flat runners in April since 2014.

His runners in the month are profitable to follow to both SP and BSP.

The excellent A/E 1.61 means that his runners are being underestimated by the betting market. We have a good Chi of 5.65, indicating that the results are not down to luck and are reliable and the Exp/Wins figure of 13.64 shows we are dealing with a decent sample size.

Granted we are only dealing with a win strike rate of about 15% so how can we improve it without falling into the trap of the dreaded” back fitting”. Let’s start by looking at his results in handicaps and non-handicap races.

Non-Handicaps – 0 winners from 19 runners 0% -19 1 placed 5%

Handicaps – 22 winners from 128 runners 17% +62 A/E 1.78 48 placed 38%

Looking at those stats I am going to concentrate on the trainer’s handicap runners.

Now let’s focus on the race code the horse had its last race in.

Horses that run on the flat turf on their last start look the way to go.

Is there any way we can improve those wins stats further?

Well if you concentrate on his younger horses, aged 3 to 6. we get the following set of results:

So, we now have the basis for a decent Michael Easterby micro angle with following criteria:

Race Type: Handicap only Horses Age: 3 to 6-year-old’s only Last Race Code: Turf only

17 winners from 61 runners 28% +88.5 A/E 2.37 30 placed 49% (Profit to BSP +110.56 and +112.84 backing all runners each-way). A 145% ROI is great and the A/E 2.37 & Chi of 15.32 are both excellent.

Back all Michael Easterby handicap Flat Turf runners that last raced on the turf and are aged 3 to 6-year-old.

Jessica Harrington

It’s usually worth having an Irish trainer in your monthly trainer portfolios. Let’s have a look at the performance of the Jessica Harrington runners in the month.

A pretty good set of results for the trainer and you could pretty much back her horses blind in April. The A/E 1.84 shows we have a trainer whose runners have been underestimated by the market in recent years. A Chi of 8.4 shows we're dealing with a robust stat that is down to skill rather than luck. Just as importantly we have a good sample size with the Exp/Wins at 10.3. The trainer’s runners make a profit to both industry SP and notably to BSP.

If we wanted to drill down into her stats further and looked at her runners aged 3-year- old+ and that were sent off at odds of 16/1 @ under.

A tidy 30%-win strike rate, a solid profit to both Industry SP & BSP and even more importantly an excellent ROI to both ISP & BSP.

Back all Jessica Harrington runners Flat Turf runners aged 3 & older that are 16/1 & under.

John Quinn

The Yorkshire based stable of John Quinn can be described as dual-purpose yard as the trainer does have runners over jumps just like our previous trainers but arguably it’s the flat where he does have the majority of his runners. Below is his record in April on the flat.

Once again, a 22% wins strike rate and a profit give us the basis for a profitable angle for his runners during the month.

Again, you could back all his runners blind in the month but is there a way to make the win strike rate even better?

As the above stats show its worth concentrating on his 3 & 4-year-old runners and if we look at those runners that were sent off at odds of 12/1 & under we get the following set of results:

A healthy 31% strike rate, profits to both ISP & BSP and very close to a 100% return on investment. They are performing 71% better than the market expects which indicates that punters are underestimating the trainer’s runners.

You could of course, just look at his runners at Pontefract & Newmarket which have produced the following:

7 winners from 15 runners 47% +41.88 A/E 2.78 9 placed 60% (Profit to BSP +54.49)

Back all John Quinn 3 & 4-year-olds that are 12/1 & under.

Summary

The weather of course, could play havoc with this month’s Acorns but you have to be hopeful in this game that profits can be obtained.

Like many methods. The above figures are based on historic data and whilst history has a good habit of repeating itself, it often doesn’t.

Both the Jessica Harrington & John Quinn April angles also have odds caps in place so unless you have a crystal ball to hand you don’t have an idea of the starting price before the off. So, the later you back their qualifiers the better.

It is important to remember that these bets are purely for the month of April and as such there maybe too many or indeed to few qualifiers for you.

Until next month.

Click Here to Find out More About Sports Betting Pays

Product Reviews

We have a bumper season of products and services under review this month but will any of them be able to deliver on their promises?

Cost: £45.00 every 28 days or £90.00 every 90 days.

The Trial: This service has continued on a cautious foot during our latest month with us receiving just 23 bets (18 x 1 point win bets and 5 at 1.5 points each way).

Our 51 points staked returned us a profit of just over 17 points using BOG’s which is a very healthy ROI of 33.50%. Sadly as is often the case had you backed using Betfair SP and after having deducted 5% commission you would have shown a loss to a shade less than 5 points.

For our total review period we received 116 Each Way selections which produced 26 outright winners and an additional 27 horse being placed. Had you managed to get the BOG’s prices you would have shown a profit of almost 180 points to the advised odds! Betfair SP’s would have reduced your return by about half but that said a profit over the period to BFSP of over 80 points is an excellent results.

Conclusion: This has been the best review for some time and you will not go far wrong by adding this service to your portfolio.

Join Each Way Hits by clicking here.

Cost: £20.00 per month (14 day free trial).

The Trial: A service which was doing well sadly took a decline this month as even allowing for severe bad weather the service still offered up 141 bets (of which 33 were winners) but which resulted in a loss for the month of 6 points the advised odds and over 17 points loss to BFSP:

Conclusion: Still waiting to see positive results.

Cost: First month £15.00 then £30.00 per month thereafter.

The Trial: A better month this month with a small profit being made of just over 4 points to 1 point level stakes using BFSP. With 36 selections this month we achieved 18 winners with SP’s ranging between 1.36 and 4.48. As we bring our review period to a close we have just about broken even overall and if you like a daily racing tip you may be tempted as what we can say is that the losing runs have been short so if you have a particular staking plan this may work alongside these tips.

Conclusion: May suit the increasing stakes gambler. Click here for more info.

Cost: Pay As You Go Registration £5.00 / 6 Months £199.00

The Trial: A quiet month this month with 9 winners from 58 selections and a small profit of 6.50 points. Our cumulative profit now stands at over 120 points so we are not complaining :)

Readers of On Course Profits can currently get a free trial of the Jeremiah Catskill service, just click here and use the contact form to request a trial and quote the code JC1.

Conclusion: Still worthy of your consideration. Find out more here.

Cost: £37.00 monthly, £74.00 every 3 months, £75.00 every 6 months. All prices are plus VAT.

The Trial: The service has seen a change in fortune this month and recovered the previous month’s losses and more besides giving us 8 winners from 35 selections and a resultant profit of 24 points.

Conclusion: Maybe the pre-launch claims can be met. Will continue to monitor. Full details here.

Cost: £47.00 per month / £94.00 per quarter / £154.00 six monthly

The Trial: With the continual growth of online tipsters, comes something a little different. The service offers 5 selections a day and grades them from 5 points staked down to 1 point so your total lay out on the day is 15 points.

To date we have had 150 selections and 33 winners yielding a profit of just less than 31.50 points to advised prices (27 points to SP).

Conclusion: Early days. Full details here, a little nervous about the staking…

Cost: £30.00 per month / £60 per quarter

The Trial: A Betting Gods service which as the name implies gives a one 1pt each way selection per day.

To date we have received 27 selections which have returned 5 winners and an additional 10 placed selections which to advised prices shows us a profit of almost 17 points (but a loss to SP of just a shade over 2 points).

Conclusion: Early days yet so we will continue to monitor. Click Here

Cost: Ltd Offer - First 6 months = £75.00

The Trial - This is a football service which advises a 5pt stake on the draw. Claiming great bank growth, attributable to compounding profits by increasing stakes for us sadly the service has only been in profit for 2 days in the month.

Our results based on 5 point level stakes show a loss of 22.75 points based on 12 winners from 45 selections

Conclusion: Watching and waiting.

Cost: £50.00 per month, £135 quarterly, £480 annually

The Trial: According to the service’s website since its inception at the beginning of 2017 they have not had a losing month with profits ranging from between 11-31 points.

It is early days but based on BFSP and selections received to date we are currently in profit by almost 7 points.

Conclusion: A promising start. Click here.

Cost: £14.00 for 7 days / £48.00 for 28 days / £90.00 for 90 days

The Trial: Initially the service got off to a flying start with their evening email giving 1 or 2 selections so hopefully you can achieve healthy early prices.

Advised stakes are between 2 and 5 points per race and in the main are each way selections with an occasional win bet.

Unfortunately we have this month received 23 selections of which just 2 hit the mark (one win one placer) giving us a loss of over 40 points

Conclusion: We are sure next month will see a return to form…Click here to find out more about the service.

Tipster Top Ten

All results are based on Advised Stakes and Best Odds Guaranteed and results over the last 90 days at time of writing.

1. Each Way Hits SR 48% ROI 80% Continuing their run at the top of the table this month is Each Way Hits and our Product Reviews bear this out. Specialising in higher price horse race tipping with each way bets as the name suggests, the selections are advised the evening before racing to be placed at Best Odds Guaranteed prices. Recent winners include Dicosimo 20/1, Flashjack 5/1 and Chandos Belle 8/1. Find out more about the service

2. Lucky 7 Naps SR 19% ROI 42% Returning to the fold yet again is Lucky 7 Naps. February closed very strong after landing the 33/1 shot Jetstream at Newcastle and 40/1 shot Warden Hill at Doncaster on the same day!

When the profits are landed they are felt well given the 5 point staking plan, but long losing runs are always a possibility so it can be a bit of a roller coaster ride at times, but if you like rollercoasters go for it! Find out more about the service

3. On The Nose SR 20% ROI 72% On The Nose has landed some nice priced winners of late including Misty Mai 9/1, Mister Whitaker 15/2 and Strategic Heights 6/1.

Staking can be anywhere between 1-5 points depending on the strength of thought on the tip. Find out more about the service

4. Fantastic Eights SR 20% ROI 38% Another returning service is Fantastic Eights. The month of December was only saved by a timely win from a 40/1 shot in Sheneedtherun and January was a sticky month with just breaking even. February saw a healthy return to form with wins from Lighhtentertainment 16/1 Beeno 9/1 and Frankie Balou 9/1. March has been panning out as a bit of an up and down ride so we can say that without the 40/1 shot it is unlikely we would see the service in the table.

That said if you are happy to wait out the losing runs the big priced winners can turn up. Find out more about the service

5. Shrewd Tipster SR43% ROI 36% A very healthy strike rate and ROI make for pleasant reading. February was a level month but January and half way in to March more than make up for the February downturn. Find out more about the service

6. Value Wins SR 35% ROI 34% A faller this month is Value Wins. Another service which struggled during February the profits of earlier in the year have acted as a buoyancy aid, but it looks as though March is on the up. Find out more about the service

7. The Inside Edge SR 35% ROI 16% A ROI of 16% doesn’t sound much when ranked against the other service in our table but you try and get 16% return on your money from the banks! A steady profit is always nice to see and the first quarter of 2018 has got off to a good start for this service. Find out more about the service

8. Winning Way SR 36% ROI 32% We can’t exactly say this service had a flying start in to the New Year as had it not landed the 16/1 shot Essential at the end of January the month would have closed as a loss, but that said they have persevered and returned a profit in February too. March is struggling a little but we still have a way to go before we are at the end of the month. Find out more about the service

9. Andy Bell Racing SR 43% ROI 21% Possible one of the few services which actually had a positive February clearing 75 points profit which was useful given the previous month’s 26 point loss. March is hanging in there but could do with a couple of nice winners to ensure that the month ends in the black rather than the red. Find out more about the service

10. Early Odds SR 21% ROI 20% Another from the past is Early Odds. The year got off to a good start and it has been positive all the way in 2018 so far. Find out more about the service