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HC 138 Published on 27 January 2005 by Authority of the House of Commons London: the Stationery Office Limited £17.50 House of Commons Treasury Committee The 2004 Pre–Budget Report First Report of Session 2004–05 Report, together with formal minutes, oral and written evidence Ordered by The House of Commons to be printed 17 January 2005 HC 138 Published on 27 January 2005 by authority of the House of Commons London: The Stationery Office Limited £17.50 The Treasury Committee The Treasury Committee is appointed by the House of Commons to examine the expenditure, administration and policy of the HM Treasury and its associated public bodies. Current membership Rt Hon John McFall MP (Labour, Dumbarton) (Chairman) Mr Nigel Beard MP (Labour, Bexleyheath and Crayford) Mr Jim Cousins MP (Labour, Newcastle upon Tyne Central) Angela Eagle MP (Labour, Wallasey) Mr Michael Fallon MP (Conservative, Sevenoaks) Rt Hon David Heathcoat-Amory MP (Conservative, Wells) Norman Lamb MP (Liberal Democrat, Norfolk North) John Mann MP (Labour, Bassetlaw) Mr George Mudie MP (Labour, Leeds East) Mr James Plaskitt MP (Labour, Warwick and Leamington) Mr Robert Walter MP (Conservative, North Dorset) Powers The Committee is one of the departmental select committees, the powers of which are set out in the House of Commons Standing Orders, principally in SO No. 152. These are available on the Internet via www.parliament.uk The Committee has power to appoint a Sub-committee, which has similar powers to the main Committee, except that it reports to the main Committee, which then reports to the House. All members of the Committee are members of the Sub- committee, and its Chairman is Mr Michael Fallon. Publications The Reports and evidence of the Committee are published by The Stationery Office by Order of the House. All publications of the Committee (including press notices) from Session 1997–98 onwards are available on the Internet at: www.parliament.uk/parliamentary_committees/treasury_committee/treasury_co mmittee_reports.cfm. Contacts All correspondence for the Treasury Committee should be addressed to the Clerk of the Treasury Committee, 7 Millbank, House of Commons, London SW1P 3JA. The telephone number for general enquiries is 020 7219 5769. The Committee’s email address is: [email protected]. The 2004 Pre-Budget Report 1 Contents Report Page Summary 3 1 Introduction 5 2 The economy 6 UK Presidencies of the G7/8 and EU 6 The recent past 7 The outlook 8 The UK’s trade position 9 Household sector consumption & saving 9 The labour market 11 3 The public finances 14 The fiscal balance 14 Declaring the cycle closed 16 Reviewing the fiscal rules 17 Revenues 19 The Treasury’s revenue forecasting record 22 Corporation tax 23 Expenditure 26 Current expenditure 26 End year flexibility and current spending 27 Investment expenditure 28 Funding local services 29 Reporting issues 30 The National Audit Office 31 4 Other issues 33 Efficiency savings 33 Savings and welfare 35 The Saving Gateway scheme 36 Promoting financial inclusion 37 Improved childcare provision 39 Tax avoidance 40 Conclusions and recommendations 44 Formal Minutes 51 The 2004 Pre-Budget Report 3 Summary G7/8 and EU presidency The UK’s joint leadership in 2005 of the G7/8 and the EU puts the Government in a strong position to play a positive role in advancing discussions on global economic institutional reform and fairer treatment of developing countries. The economy 2004 has proved to be another year of solid economic activity in the UK, with evidence of some rebalancing of the economy. The Treasury growth forecast for 2005 is more optimistic than the external consensus, but the gap with other major forecasters probably lies within the bounds of forecasting error. Efforts to raise participation rates and the UK’s skill base are vital to meeting the competitive challenges posed by the global economy. In the near term, the evidence many experts detect of a tightening labour market needs to be monitored extremely carefully. The public finances and the ‘golden rule’ On the Treasury’s current forecast, the golden rule for current borrowing will be met over the current cycle (on the Treasury basis for calculating the rule). The margin for meeting the rule has nevertheless fallen further since the Budget and now stands at £8 billion (0.1% GDP). Many independent forecasters believe that this is too narrow a margin to be confident that the golden rule will be met. Given the significance for the fiscal rules of dating the beginning and the end of the economic cycle, the Treasury should clearly inform Parliament in a timely fashion of its preliminary analysis that the cycle has ended. It is now also appropriate to review the current fiscal rules. Revenues and expenditure Despite strong economic growth and employment, tax receipts—although they have grown strongly by historic standards—are emerging below forecast for the fourth consecutive year. Even so, the fastest growth in receipts since 1997 is projected over the next two years. It is important that forecasts for tax receipts are accurately constructed and avoid an over-optimistic trend. Questions have been raised in particular about the trend for corporation tax receipts and the Treasury should review the assumption that financial company profits will grow as a share of GDP. The Treasury’s forecast for central government current expenditure in 2004-05 requires substantial spending restraint by government departments over the last four months of the financial year. The build up of End-year flexibility entitlement by departments has reached the point where it poses at least a theoretical risk to the achievement of the Government’s fiscal targets. 4 The 2004 Pre-Budget Report The Treasury should provide more detail on the process by which key assumptions are referred to the NAO. We expect to give further examination to suggestions that outside scrutiny of a wider range of the key variables in the forecasts might enhance transparency and credibility. Other expenditure issues The Treasury should take further action to improve the management and delivery of public sector investment and monitor its effectiveness closely. We call for more detail on breakdown of the sums re-allocated from central programmes to local authorities and other expenditure changes affecting local authority financing. Although departmental plans for achieving the Gershon efficiency savings were the subject of advice from the NAO and the Audit Commission, the role of the central scrutiny panel sits uneasily with departments’ accountability for this process. It is not possible to determine what advice was provided by the NAO and Audit Commission nor the extent to which this was acted upon by departments: this advice and each department’s response should be published. Savings and welfare The Committee comments on a range of other issues relating to savings and welfare, including: the possibility of reviewing the plans to reduce the current ISA subscription limits, the extension of the Saving Gateway pilot schemes, the promotion of financial advice to consumers under the programme to tackle financial exclusion, changes to the savings thresholds for welfare benefits, and the plans for increased childcare provision. Tax avoidance The new tax avoidance disclosure regime is working both in terms of allowing the revenue departments to close off avoidance schemes earlier than was the case previously and in having disincentive effects on the tax avoidance industry. Some experts have indicated that the announcement that future legislation to outlaw future income/NIC avoidance schemes will be backdated to 2 December 2004 raises significant issues that could lead to challenge in the courts. The Inland Revenue should, without jeopardising their position, publish a paper setting out their thinking on the principles which will guide the way they implement this announcement. The 2004 Pre-Budget Report 5 1 Introduction 1. The Chancellor of the Exchequer made his annual statement1 introducing the Pre- Budget Report2 on 2 December 2004. The Committee has conducted an inquiry as in previous years, inviting written evidence and holding three sessions of oral evidence, with outside experts3 (9 December), Treasury officials (14 December) and the Chancellor (16 December). This evidence is published with this report,4 and we are most grateful to all those who have contributed. 2. In previous years, we have commented on the advantages which would arise for the House if more systematic and earlier notice were available of the date on which the PBR was to be published.5 In its response to our report last year, the Government reiterated its position that “it will announce the date of the Budget (and the Pre-Budget Report) at the earliest convenient opportunity. However, it may not prove possible to give two months notice.”6 On this occasion, the announcement of the PBR date was made on 11 November. This was only 3 weeks before the PBR itself, a reduction even on the 4 weeks notice given in 2003. We reiterate our view that this is an unsatisfactorily short period of notice for what is meant to be an important event in the economic calendar. 1 HC Debates, 2 December 2004, col 781ff. 2 Cm. 6408 3 Divided into two part-sessions, broadly concentrating on macro-economic issues (Mr Robert Chote of the Institute for Fiscal Studies, Professor Peter Spencer of York University, Mr Martin Weale of the National Institute of Economic and Social Research, and Mr David Walton of Goldman Sachs) and on micro-economic issues (Mr Chote and Mr Weale, accompanied by Mr John Whiting of PricewaterhouseCoopers) 4 See Ev 1 5 Third Report of Session 2003–04, The 2003 Pre-Budget Report, HC 136, para 4 6 Third Special Report of Session 2003–04, HC 478, page 1 6 The 2004 Pre-Budget Report 2 The economy UK Presidencies of the G7/8 and EU 3. The Pre-Budget Report observes that the global economy has been buffeted by a range of forces, including “rising oil prices, large current account imbalances and shifting exchange rates between Europe, Asia and the US”.7 In addition the developing world, particularly sub-Saharan Africa, has continued to make slow progress in its struggle to defeat poverty.
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