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Development Gains and Growing Pains (2009) ABARE conference paper 09.4 Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society 11–13 February 2009, Cairns, Queensland The energetic north: development gains and growing pains Jane Mélanie, Trish Gleeson, Nikki Rogers and Clare Stark Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics Northern Australia has changed rapidly over the past 10 to 20 years with its regional economies becoming increasingly internationally connected. There have been many gains to the Australian economy through the development and investment opportuni- ties which have presented themselves in this dynamic region of Australia. This includes the development of rich energy and mineral resources, the development of pastoral and agricultural industries, growth in tourism expenditure and investment in strategic transport and communications infrastructure. Along with these development gains, the region faces a number of challenges or ‘growing pains’. Can the prosperity of Northern Australia be sustained as we enter a global recession and longer term pressures emerge? 1 Introduction Northern Australia encompasses north Queensland, northern Western Australia and the Northern Territory and accounts for around 45 per cent of Australia’s land mass but less than 6 per cent of Australia’s population. A large proportion of northern Australia’s land area is owned by indigenous Australians and much of it remains national park. The region is endowed with vast mineral and energy resources, agricultural development potential, pristine wilderness areas and substantial ecotourism and cultural tourism opportunities. The combination of a substantial resource base and proximity to Asian markets has meant the region’s prosperity has been closely linked to the strong economic gains of emerging economies in that region over the past decade. However, this also means the region is highly exposed to the current global economic downturn. ABARE project: 3284 Note: The views expressed in this paper are those ISSN: 1447-3666 of the authors only and not necessarily of ABARE. The energetic north 2 The economic base of northern Australia – the dominance of mining Northern Australia’s economic base comprises a range of industries including mining, agriculture, fisheries and manufacturing (table 1). In the mining sector, iron ore, oil and gas, coal, uranium, lead, zinc, silver and diamonds are all major commodities extracted and exported to the world which contribute heavily to the economic wealth of the region and the nation. In agriculture, beef cattle production, including for live export, is the most widespread agricultural enterprise, which accounted for 45 per cent of northern Australia’s value of agricultural production in 2005-06. Sugar cane accounted for one-quarter of the total value of agricultural production in northern Australia followed by various horticultural crops that together contributed a further 20 per cent to the total value of agricultural production. Significant fisheries and aquaculture activities in the region include the northern prawn fishery, the pearl fishery and the farmed barramundi industry. Tourism is also a major contributor to the northern Australian economy. Three northern Australia regions feature in the top 20 most popular tourism regions in Australia which bring in substantial tourism dollars to the northern Australian economy from international and domestic visitors. In 2007 in tropical north Queensland, tourism expenditure amounted to $2.6 billion; the Whitsundays region of Queensland attracted $705 million in visitor expenditure; and the Darwin region in the Northern Territory attracted $899 million (Tourism Research Australia 2008). 1 Industry gross value added (GVA) and employment by industry, 2007-08 Industry industry industry share of industry share of industry share of number state Industry share of number state GVA state GVA employed employment GVA state GVA employed employment $m % ‘000 % $m % ‘000 % agriculture, forestry and fishing mining Qld 5 466 2.8 83.1 3.8 20 403 10.6 40.3 1.8 WA 3 454 2.5 41.5 3.6 41 820 29.8 70.0 6.0 NT 266 1.9 2.9 2.6 3 434 24.9 5.0 4.5 Aust 25 068 2.6 361.5 3.4 82 633 8.4 172.0 1.6 manufacturing other Qld 18 331 9.6 210.8 9.6 147 706 77.0 1 869.5 84.8 WA 11 901 8.5 103.1 8.9 83 059 59.2 946.1 81.5 NT 942 6.8 4.7 4.2 9 153 66.3 99.2 88.7 Aust 106 428 10.9 1 079.3 10.1 765 780 78.1 8 873.4 83.1 Source: ABS 2008a. ABARE conference paper • 09.4 The energetic north Mining shares of state gross value Despite this wide range of opportunities, the a added, 2007-08 mining sector remains the dominant contributor to economic output. The mining industry makes a much New South Wales larger contribution to gross value added in Western Victoria Australia (30 per cent), Northern Territory (25 per cent) Queensland and Queensland (11 per cent) — referred to hereafter Western Australia as ‘the mining states’ — than in the remaining South Australia states, where mining averages 3.5 per cent or less of Tasmania state gross value added (figure a). Correspondingly, the mining states also contribute a greater share of Northern Territory national mining gross value added than their state Australia share of total gross value added from all industries. % 5 10 15 20 25 30 Western Australia in particular contributed almost half (49 per cent) of all value added by mining (excluding Source: ABS 2008a. services to mining) in Australia in 2007-08 despite the Western Australian economy only making up 15 per cent of national gross value added. Queensland contributed just less than one-quarter (23 per cent) of the national mining gross value added, while the Northern Territory contributed 5 per cent (ABS 2008a). 3 The growth spurt of northern Australia – a major achievement Northern Australia, and indeed the mining states more broadly, have enjoyed a major growth spurt since 2000, predominantly driven by the resources boom and the dynamic population growth occurring in the region. Some of the key indicators and drivers of this growth are explored b Gross state product below. 7 Income growth 6 Strong rises in mineral and energy prices in recent 5 years supported by buoyant demand from emerging 4 market economies in Asia provided substantial 3 stimulus to the Australian economy, with the boost to activity stronger in the mining states of Western 2 Australia, Northern Territory and Queensland. Since 1 the beginning of this decade, economic growth % in the mining states has exceeded growth in the 1995 1998 2001 2004 2007 non-mining states by a significant margin, with the -96 -99 -02 -05 -08 mining states growing at an average annual rate of mining states 4.7 per cent between 2000-01 and 2007-08, which is non-mining states almost double the non-mining states’ average annual Source: ABS 2008a. growth rate of 2.5 per cent (figure b). ABARE conference paper • 09. The energetic north Household disposable income Relatively high gross state product growth rates c per capita have translated into significant growth in household as proportion of non-mining states disposable income per capita in the mining states. 94 This growth has reduced the disparity between mining and non-mining states. In 2007-08, residents 92 of mining states earned on average 92.5 per cent 90 of the average income of residents of non-mining states in nominal terms (figure c). 88 Nonetheless, based on data from the 2006 ABS 86 census, the index of relative socio-economic disadvantage, which considers variables such as low % income, low educational attainment, unemployment, 1995 1998 2001 2004 2007 -96 -99 -02 -05 -08 and dwellings without motor vehicles, shows that the 10 most disadvantaged statistical local mining states areas in Australia were in the Northern Territory or Source: ABS 2008a. north Queensland (ABS 2008b). For example, life expectancy at birth for males (72.1 years) and females (78.1 years) in the Northern Territory were lower than national life expectancies (78.7 and 83.5 years respectively), with the territory also having fewer doctors for every 100 000 people (254), compared with a national rate of 266 for every 100 000 people. A large part of this is related to the relatively high proportion of Indigenous people living in Northern Australia. As such, the development of social infrastructure and the implementation of policies designed to close the socio-economic gap between indigenous and non-indigenous populations remain critical but challenging tasks. Export performance Mining has traditionally held a strong position in Merchandise exports the makeup of Australia’s exports. During a period d of low prices at the start of the decade, the mining 140 industry still contributed to 29 per cent of all 120 Australian export earnings. However, the resources boom strengthened this position, almost doubling 100 the average annual growth rate in resources exports 80 from 5.7 per cent in 2000-01 to 9.8 per cent in 2007- 60 08. As a result, the mining industry accounted for 41 per cent of Australia’s export earnings in 2007-08 40 (ABS 2008c). This growth underpins much of the 20 growth in merchandise exports in the mining states $b since 2003 (figure d). In parallel with the substantial 1988 1992 1996 2000 2004 2008 growth in the value of commodities exports, regional economies in northern Australia have mining states also become more reliant on export markets and, non-mining states therefore, more exposed to external shocks such as Source: ABS 2009. the global financial crisis. 4 ABARE conference paper • 09.4 The energetic north Population and employment Growth of working age population Population growth has also played a role in driving e aged 15-64 years a wedge between the mining states and the 2.5 rest of Australia (Garton 2008).
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