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2020Vision.REVISED.MAR25.Pdf Dr. Jerry Pournelle (1933-2017) led an adventurous life and wrote an immense quantity of science fact and fiction for over 50 years --including the NY Times bestsellers Lucifer’s Hammer, Oath of Fealty and Footfall (with Larry Niven). Gizmodo described Jerry as "a tireless ambassador for the future". His predictions and persuasive essays may have changed the course of American history but his view on life and growing up influenced thousands of lives. It's not just bookworm material: Jerry's stories are fast-paced and rollicking, often with a deeper level for the careful reader. He worked well with Larry Niven and Steve Barnes as a co-author combining mystery, science, well-paced drama and outlandish predictions of the future. Look for funny and scary aliens as antagonists and sometimes protagonists: Motie watchmakers rewiring the coffee makers, Sauron supermen, marauding cannibals and the comet-surfing Gil character in Lucifers Hammer; intelligent water creatures like the Starswarm saving the day, even elephant conquerors like the Fipth surrendering to humans in Footfall, or the deadly-fast Grendels known as the supercreatures from Legacy of Heorot. Within Jerry’s stories his themes ranged from politics to military Science Fiction, artificial intelligence to individual acts of courage that save the world. In 1980, Jerry predicted that by the year 2000 anyone in Western Civilization would be able to get the answer to any question that can be answered; that happened a bit faster than anyone thought it would. His Co-Dominium universe (The Mote in Gods Eye, Gripping Hand) predicted the fall of the USSR as well as the invention of the iPad. His Langston Field and faster-than-light travel via the Alderson Drive may prove correct as well. Jerry's column in BYTE was the longest running column in the computer industry. It began in 1980 and continued past the turn of the Century on one of the world’s first blogs, ChaosManor™. Starting on ARPANET, Jerry engaged fans one-on-one to create thought-leading communities. The work continues today with nearly 300 Chaos Volunteers and a subject matter expert advisor available on almost any matter from astrophysics to astronomy. Jerry was a full time writer of technology, science fact and fiction. He was President of the Science Fiction Writers of America and active in the American Association for the Advancement of Science. His essays on future prediction and adventurous tales of fiction appeared in Galaxy Magazine (A Step Farther Out), Analog (A Spaceship for the King), Soldier of Fortune, Twin Circle, and The Atlantic. Pournelle was known for his paleo-conservative political views, which were sometimes expressed in his fiction. He was one of the founders of the Citizens' Advisory Council on National Space Policy, which developed some of the Reagan Administration's space initiatives, including the earliest versions of what would become the Strategic Defense Initiative. Prior to college, Jerry was a signalman in the Korean War at age 16, leaving West Point early to run a New York City playhouse. In 1953– 54, Pournelle attended the University of Iowa and later obtaining two advanced degrees at University of Washington (GO HUSKIES!). His seminal work began as an Aerospace Psychologist for the Human Factors Laboratory at Boeing in Seattle; then a Boeing systems analyst. After completing a second PHD in Political Science he worked in systems analysis and operations research at Aerospace Corporation in Southern California. Since that time, he was a political science professor at Pepperdine University; managed political campaigns; acted as a Deputy Mayor of Los Angeles; consulted to the California Board of Regents; and Science Correspondent for the National Catholic Press, which led to being a full time writer. Mostly he tells stories of clear good guys with difficult decisions and magical engineering solutions to complex problems. His four sons and daughter have recently launched the ChaosManor™ imprint to support Jerry's widow, Roberta. The mission is to help smart kids find their path and achieve their purpose. Look for new eLEGACY editions throughout 2020 that update the classics to include fan art, liner notes and secrets to unlocking what drove this prolific writer and dreamer. Our immense thanks to Larry Niven and wife Marilyn (Fuzzy). www.jerrypournelle.com/sciencefiction/ 20|20 VISION© Created by Jerry Pournelle Copyright 2020 ChaosManor™ A 50 year forecast into the future from 1970. 20/20 VISION was originally published by Avon Books. Copyright © 1974 by Jerry Pournelle. Published by arrangement with the editor. For information write: ChaosManor 1717 E Vista Chino A7-831 Palm Springs CA 92262 or email [email protected] All rights reserved, which includes the right to reproduce this book or portions thereof in any form whatsoever. For information address The Estate of Jerry Pournelle [email protected] Build Me A Mountain—Copyright © 1974 by Ben Bova. Cloak of Anarchy—Copyright © 1973 by Conde Nast Publications. Silent In Gehenna—Copyright © 1973 by Harlan Ellison. The Pugilist—Copyright © 1973 by Mercury Press, Inc. Eat, Drink and Be Merry—Copyright © 1974 by Dian Girad. Prognosis: Terminal—Copyright © 1974 by Dave McDaniel. Future Perfect—Copyright © 1973 by Mankind Publications. A Thing of Beauty—Copyright © 1972 by Conde Nast Publications. CONTENTS: Preface: Jerry Pournelle Do We Live in a Golden Age?—Pournelle Build Me a Mountain—Ben Bova Cloak of Anarchy—Larry Niven Silent in Gehenna—Harlan Ellison The Pugilist—Poul Anderson Eat, Drink, and Be Merry—Diane Girad Prognosis: Terminal—Dave McDaniel Future Perfect—A. E. Van Vogt A Thing of Beauty—Norman Spinrad POSTLOG | CRITIQUE World Future Society is Not in Mortal Combat with SF Worldcon 2020 Bet: The Tontine DEDICATION FOR 20/20 VISIONS Dedicated to a number of key organizations and individuals: Institute for Space Commerce https://iisc.im/ The World Future Society LASFS Los Angeles Science Fiction and Fantasy Society SPACE ACCESS SOCIETY WORLDCON 2020 DRAGONCON 2020 LARRY NIVEN A creative dreamer of dedication and purpose JOHN CARR A brilliant editor and family friend TIM POWERS A fan’s fan of Science Fiction + Writing HENRY VANDERBILT Space Access Society + Conference Leader ROBERTA POURNELLE A mother, wife, grandmother, teacher JENNIFER POURNELLE An officer, educator and archeologist ALEX POURNELLE A stalwart technologist and secret humorist PHILLIP POURNELLE A father, Naval Commander, author RICH POURNELLE A father, space advocate, entrepreneur TIGERNAN POURNELLE Writer, artist, husband FRANK POURNELLE Entrepreneur, husband MICHAEL DONAHUE Faithful Family Friend ERIC POBIRS Technologist|ChaosManor Volunteer RICK HELLEWELL Technologist|ChaosManor Volunteer ALDO SPADONI Aerospace Imagineering + Board of Trustees https://iaaa.org STEVEN BARNES Humanist, Coach, Writer Our immense thanks to Larry Niven and wife Marilyn (Fuzzy). NOTED LIFETIME IMPACT SUBSCRIBERS INCLUDE: Barry Griffiths Robert Chace Chris Stott Michael Brogley Frank Luxem PREFACE TO 2020 VISION By Jerry Pournelle Although I write science fiction, I am primarily in the business of predicting the future. Now you may say that’s the same thing, and I will agree, but my predictions don’t usually come out in story form. Instead they are often long and involved arguments, dreary to read unless you’ve paid for them, and use a lot of mathematics. In fact, there is on this earth an organization, of which I am a member, called the World Future Society. Its membership includes men such as Herman Kahn, Glenn T. Seaborg, Orville Freeman, and other well-known professional prognosticators, and its tools are in large part those of Systems Analysis, Operations Research, Stochastic Modeling, and the like. The World Future Society is an exciting group and its publications are well worth reading. There is, however, a rival organization in the future-predicting business. Science fiction writers are wont to predict the future every whit as much as the scientists of the World Future Society—and science fiction stories may be more influential than the documented tomes produced by the more orthodox “professionals” in the predicting game. It is, of course, old hat to list the astounding predictions made by science fictioneers, and the usual blurb tends to emphasize the ones that have duly come true. Atomic bombs, nuclear power plants, space travel and rocket ships; or, going further back in time, submarines, aeroplanes and telephones; all of these were in point of fact “predicted” by some science fiction writer in some story or another. There’s no point in beating this to the ground; many people know our successes. On the other hand, science fiction writers have predicted a whole mess of things that just haven’t happened. I leave out “wild talents,” psionic machines and techniques that harness extrasensory perception for use at will, because the returns aren’t in from the outlying precincts. I also leave out faster-than-light spaceships because although they are now “known” to be impossible, I’m not all that sure—and besides, it’s hard to write a whacking good “space opera” if you’re restricted to the solar system and what’s known at the moment about relativity. (You can do it, though; I think immediately of Poul Anderson’s Tau Zero as an obvious example.) But even leaving out those favorite SF themes it would be easy to find science fictioneers who predict things that haven’t happened and aren’t going to happen; and somehow when we SF writers get maudlin about our value to the world, we forget all about those. I can just hear the fans protesting at this point. “Whoa!” they’ll say. “You can’t treat everything written by an SF writer as a serious prediction of the future. Sometimes they were just having fun, or speculating about ‘what-if,’ or trying to make a buck. Besides, the professional prognosticators, you among them, have been just as wrong just as often.” All of which is so true as to need no further comment.
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