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Developing Agricultural Commodity Markets Through a Better Trading Platform

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Developing Agricultural Commodity Markets Through a Better Trading Platform Developing Agricultural Commodity Markets Through a Better Trading Platform 13th Annual Farmer Cooperatives Conference Cooperatives: Looking Forward December 6-7, 2010 Brad Miller, Vice President Practice Leader of Auctions & Competitive Bidding A Better Market Mechanism for Agricultural Commodities Overview Market design Implementation – a case study Results The future 1 Copyright © CRA International. All Rights Reserved. Market Design Challenges • Challenges for all market participants – Negotiations are time-consuming and costly – Parties wonder if they got the best deal – Limited ability to manage risk and uncertainty – Information and transaction costs are too high • Challenges for coops and its members – Need price transparency and reliable price signals – Need credible information about current and future market conditions – Need to manage price and quantity volatility – Coops must continually demonstrate value to members 2 Copyright © CRA International. All Rights Reserved. Market Design Advantages of well-designed, structured bidding mechanisms • Can be designed to best meet the needs of both buyers and sellers • Ability to achieve various goals • Fair, open, transparent, objective, non-discriminatory, quick process • Minimizes information and transaction costs • Effective price discovery mechanism and quantity allocation • Maximizes participants’ interest and participation • Those who value the product the most will win, optimizing prices and revenue • Win-win for both buyers and sellers – No regrets, no complaints – Can use resources better, administer contracts more efficiently, make better planning decisions – Value pie is made larger 3 Copyright © CRA International. All Rights Reserved. Market Design How do you design the market mechanism? • Confirm the objectives • Define the products, draft the contracts – Substitutes vs. complements – Common value vs. private value • Identify the participants – Few vs. many, current vs. new entrants – Range of reasons for participating • Then, determine the optimal market design to meet the needs – Forward auction – one seller, many buyers – Reverse auction – one buyer, many sellers – Multi-seller, multi-buyer exchange • Develop the detailed auction rules • Host Information Website and Bidding Website 4 Copyright © CRA International. All Rights Reserved. Market Design Agricultural commodities -- auctions Auctions provide Transparent significant process efficiency, price discovery, and risk Structured Formal management benefits Process (RFP) Auction Well-constructed auctions will assign The grey products to those who zone value the products the most Informal Bi-lateral There is flexibility in Negotiations Contracts auction design – must be tailored to meet the Opaque objectives of the buyers and sellers Flexible Standardized 5 Copyright © CRA International. All Rights Reserved. Implementation Case study: globalDairyTrade Fonterra is leading dairy exporter, one of the world’s largest dairy producers gDT’s vision: to be trusted by buyers and sellers to discover current market prices for the products being traded and will be accepted globally as a reference price for associated markets gDT platform now recognized worldwide as establishing credible market prices used in the dairy industry Dozens of products and contracts auctioned simultaneously Monthly events starting in July 2008, twice-per-month starting September 2010 Market format is a simultaneous, multiple-round, ascending-price “clock auction” – Bidding occurs round by round – Price for each product announced before each round – Bidders bid desired quantities at the announced prices – After a round, if a product’s demand > supply, then increase the product’s price for next round – Auction closes when demand = supply for each product – Allows for price arbitrage (substitutes) and optimal bundles (complements) 6 Copyright © CRA International. All Rights Reserved. Implementation Case study: globalDairyTrade Customers can bid on any or all of the contract periods, and change their bids between periods and products as the prices change Example: March Trading Session March June September December May Contract 1: Jun Jul Aug Contract 2: Sep Oct Nov Contract 3: Key: Shipment Lag Shipment Period 7 Copyright © CRA International. All Rights Reserved. How does globalDairyTrade work? This is the volume of bids received – this decreases as price increases Fonterra announces the volume that it wishes to sell Volume TOTAL BIDS RECEIVED TOTAL on This is offer price – Offer this increases during the event PRICE ANNOUNCED EACH ROUND 8 Copyright © CRA International. All Rights Reserved. How does globalDairyTrade work? And the starting price Customers bid the total volume that they wish to purchase at the starting price When total demand from all bidders exceeds volume on offer so the price is increased EXCESS DEMAND Volume TOTAL BIDS RECEIVED TOTAL on Offer $2000 $2100 $2200 $2250 $2300 $2325 $2350 PRICE ANNOUNCED EACH ROUND 9 Copyright © CRA International. All Rights Reserved. How does globalDairyTrade work? Customers re-bid at the new, higher, price Demand still exceeds volume on offer so price is increased again EXCESS DEMAND Volume TOTAL BIDS RECEIVED TOTAL on Offer $2000 $2100 $2200 $2250 $2300 $2325 $2350 PRICE ANNOUNCED EACH ROUND 10 Copyright © CRA International. All Rights Reserved. How does globalDairyTrade work? Bidders re-bid at the new higher price Volume TOTAL BIDS RECEIVED TOTAL on Offer $2000 $2100 $2200 $2250 $2300 $2325 $2350 PRICE ANNOUNCED EACH ROUND 11 Copyright © CRA International. All Rights Reserved. How does globalDairyTrade work? Bidders re-bid at the new higher price The price continues to increase and each round bidders re-bid at the new higher price D EM AN D D EC RE AS ES Volume TOTAL BIDS RECEIVED TOTAL on Offer PRICE INCREASES $2000 $2100$2200 $2250 $2300 $2325 $2350 PRICE ANNOUNCED EACH ROUND 12 Copyright © CRA International. All Rights Reserved. How does globalDairyTrade work? The price is increased until the amount bidders are willing to purchase equals the amount we want to sell THIS IS THE PRICE THAT ALL BIDDERS PAY Volume TOTAL BIDS RECEIVED TOTAL on Offer $2000 $2100$2200 $2250 $2300 $2325 $2350 PRICE ANNOUNCED EACH ROUND 13 Copyright © CRA International. All Rights Reserved. How does globalDairyTrade work? 14 Copyright © CRA International. All Rights Reserved. Results: gDT Prices Compared to Corn Prices 120 100 80 60 40 Price Index = 100 for July 2008 20 0 Jul-08 Oct-08 Jan-09 Apr-09 Jul-09 Oct-09 Jan-10 Apr-10 Jul-10 Oct-10 gDT Price Corn Price 15 Copyright © CRA International. All Rights Reserved. Results: gDT Prices Compared to Soybean Prices 120 100 80 60 40 Price Index = 100 for July 2008 20 0 Jul-08 Oct-08 Jan-09 Apr-09 Jul-09 Oct-09 Jan-10 Apr-10 Jul-10 Oct-10 gDT Price Soybean Price 16 Copyright © CRA International. All Rights Reserved. Results: gDT Prices Compared to Wheat Prices 120 100 80 60 40 Price Index = 100 for July 2008 20 0 Jul-08 Oct-08 Jan-09 Apr-09 Jul-09 Oct-09 Jan-10 Apr-10 Jul-10 Oct-10 gDT Price Wheat Price 17 Copyright © CRA International. All Rights Reserved. Results: gDT Prices Compared to Cotton Prices 200 180 160 140 120 100 80 Price Index = 100 for July 2008 60 40 20 0 Jul-08 Oct-08 Jan-09 Apr-09 Jul-09 Oct-09 Jan-10 Apr-10 Jul-10 Oct-10 gDT Price Cotton Price 18 Copyright © CRA International. All Rights Reserved. Results: gDT Provides Transparency and Credibility • Over 300 qualified customers from 56 countries – 100-140 bidders active in round 1 of each trading event – About 65% of the bidders win product • 32 trading events (July 2008 through November 2010) – Over US$ 2.5 billion transacted – 700,000 MT (1.5 million pounds) transacted • More products and volume have been added to the platform – Skim milk powder, whole milk powder, anhydrous milk fat, butter milk powder – Forecast is to transact 578,000 MT (1.3 million pounds) over next 12 months • About 25% of Fonterra’s domestic production is on gDT – There is scope to add value as the co-op members require • Provides reliable, credible prices and market information, benefitting coop members and the marketplace • Followed closely by the rest of the market and by financial institutions 19 Copyright © CRA International. All Rights Reserved. The Future • gDT: possibility of additional sellers joining the platform – thus becoming a multi-seller, multi-buyer platform • Similar trading platform – CranberryAuction – has been developed for Ocean Spray for cranberry concentrate • Can be designed and tailored to meet the needs of both buyers and sellers in a variety of markets • Allow more potential buyers and sellers to participate in the market • Complementary with other transactions – need not replace all other transactions • This is not just theory – there now is extensive experience in a variety of industries – electricity, natural gas, chemicals, telecommunications, etc. 20 Copyright © CRA International. All Rights Reserved. Example: Electricity Procurement Auction 250 Starting Price $100 200 $80 150 $60 Final Price Price ($/MWh) 100 $40 # Tranches of Supply 50 $20 $0 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10111213141516171819202122232425 Round # Tranches Bid Price ($/MWh) 21 Copyright © CRA International. All Rights Reserved. Example: Natural Gas Procurement Auction $4.00 45 Starting Price 40 $3.50 35 $3.00 30 $2.50 25 $2.00 20 Price ($/mcf) Price Final Price $1.50 15 Number of Tranches Bid tranches sold $1.00 10 $0.50 5 $0.00 0 123456789101112131415 Bidding Round # Tranches Bid Price 22 Copyright © CRA International. All Rights Reserved. Brad Miller, Vice President Head, Auctions & Competitive Bidding CRA International d/b/a Charles River Associates John Hancock Tower 200 Clarendon Street Boston, MA 02116 +1-617-425-3000 Tel +1-617-425-3132 Fax www.crai.com.
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