Knowsley Core Evidence Base

KNOWSLEY METROPOLITAN BOROUGH COUNCIL KNOWSLEY MBC: CORE EVIDENCE BASE Draft Final November 2007 Regeneris Consulting Ltd One Ashley Road Altrincham, Cheshire WA14 2DT Tel: 0161 926 9214 Fax: 0161 926 8545 Web: www.regeneris.co.uk Knowsley MBC: Core Evidence Base CONTENTS EXECUTIVE SUMMARY I 1. INTRODUCTION 1 2. KNOWSLEY BOROUGH IN CONTEXT 3 3. THE POPULATION OF KNOWSLEY 7 4. THE ECONOMY, EMPLOYMENT AND ENTERPRISE 15 5. ECONOMIC ACTIVITY AND INACTIVITY 37 6. TRAVEL TO WORK AND INCOMES 46 7. DEPRIVATION 51 8. EDUCATION AND SKILLS 54 9. LAND AND PROPERTY 63 10. HOUSING 69 11. HEALTH 76 12. CRIME 84 13. THE ENVIRONMENT AND QUALITY OF LIFE 90 A-00352 Knowsley MBC: Core Evidence Base Executive Summary i. This report presents a Core Evidence Base for the Metropolitan Borough of Knowsley Metropolitan Borough. It provides data and analysis for Knowsley MBC and the Local Strategic Partnership to help them plan their activities over the next few years by identifying key challenges and opportunities. The evidence it provides will shape three main strategies for the Borough: • Sustainable Community Strategy (SCS) – The Borough Council and the Local Strategic Partnership are preparing a new Sustainable Community Strategy for Knowsley Borough, the document which sets the long-term vision and priorities for the area. The SCS is expected to balance economic, social and environmental goals. • Local Development Framework (LDF) – The Borough is now preparing the documents which will guide local planning policy over the next few years. The LDF has to be based on robust evidence. • Economic Regeneration Strategy – This document will set the vision and strategic priorities for the development of the area’s economy of the next 10-15 years. It also requires a strong evidence base. ii. The Core Evidence Base paints a picture of a Borough which has made significant progress in strengthening its economy and tackling some deep rooted social problems. At the same time, the data underline the tough challenges that remain in the Borough’s efforts to improve the lives of its residents and make the area a more sustainable place. Population iii. The current population of Knowsley Borough stands at around 151,000 in 61,000 households. Over the last 20 years, the population has fallen, but the rate of decline has been slowing. The latest available estimates suggest that the number of residents has actually risen in the last two years. iv. The age structure of Knowsley Borough’s population is broadly similar to that of Merseyside, the North West and the UK average. Its working age population (age 15-64) is a little smaller than the national average, while there is a slightly higher proportion of residents in the 0-14 age groups than regionally or nationally. As is the case in many parts of the UK, the number of older people (over 65 years old) in the Borough has steadily increased over the last 20 years. It rose by 25% between 1985 and 2006. v. There are a number of other notable characteristics of the Borough’s resident population. They include: • The Borough has a comparatively small Black and Minority Ethnic population, representing under 2% of the population; • There are higher than average proportions of lone parent households, which are particularly concentrated in North Huyton, North and South Kirkby. • There is lower than average proportion of single person households. The Economy, Employment and Enterprise vi. Around 55,000 people are employed in the Borough, a figure that has increased significantly in absolute terms over the last decade. It is home to an estimated 3,200 businesses, with around 1,900 recorded as VAT registered. As is the case with employment, the business Ref: A-00352 Page i Knowsley MBC: Core Evidence Base base has expanded over the last few years, reflecting a push for enterprise and the favourable economic climate. vii. However, the way the Borough earns its living is changing. Its manufacturing base remains strong, accounting for 10% of businesses and more than 20% of total employment. However, in the last decade, the main growth sectors have been retail, public services, financial intermediation and labour recruitment. Real estate, renting and other business activities (service companies) now account for around 19% of the business base. This pattern suggests that Knowsley Borough’s economy is gaining a stronger foothold in the service sector, and is becoming more like the UK economy as a whole. Over the next 10-15 years, this trend is likely to continue as the number of service businesses rises. viii. There are mixed messages about the overall performance of the Borough’s economy. The Borough’s GVA per capita (based on that of East Merseyside) lags behind that of Greater Merseyside, the North West and the UK. However, as Figure 1-1 shows, the period since 1998 has seen substantial numbers of new jobs created. This is consistent with major new investments by businesses on the Borough’s industrial parks and an increase of 10% in the business base. Figure 1-1: Employment Change, 1998 - 2004 Source: Annual Business Inquiry, National Statistics (from Nomis Website: www .nomisweb.co.uk ) © Crown Copyright material is reproduced with the permission of the controller of HMSO. ix. The data tells us that Knowsley Borough is both an important location for employment in the Liverpool City Region and a major source of workers for the area. The 2001 Census data indicate a daily net outflow of commuters from Knowsley Borough of around 1,000 people. x. Around 53,000 people travel to work in the Borough each day, with places such as Vauxhall, Birkenhead, Garston, Widnes, Croxteth and Bickerstaffe being the main sources of commuters. Ref: A-00352 Page ii Knowsley MBC: Core Evidence Base xi. Around 54,000 people leave the Borough each day to work elsewhere in the area. Speke, Knotty Ash, Fazakerley and Fairfield are among the most important destinations of out- commuters. xii. The proportion of Knowsley Borough’s out-commuters who are employed in lower skilled occupations is higher than is the case for the in-commuters. The data also suggest that higher paid jobs in the Borough tend to be taken by those who live outside it. Over 33% of in commuters are employed as Managers or senior officials, in professional occupations or associate professional and technical occupations, compared to 28.5% of those residents who work outside the Borough. xiii. The Borough’s award winning efforts to become a more enterprising place are reflected in the data on business creation which show a clear upward trend over the last 10 years. As the business density data in Figure 1-2 below illustrate, Knowsley has a marked change in its business density, the number of businesses per 10,000 of the working age population. This suggests that efforts to stimulate entrepreneurship are paying dividends. However, an additional 233 VAT registrations per year would be required in the Borough to raise its business start up rate to the UK average. Figure 1-2: Business Density, 1999 - 2007 Source: BETA model, 2007 xiv. Employment forecasts provided by Experian/Business Strategies Ltd. for the Core Evidence Base suggest that the Borough will see little overall growth in employment over the next 15 years (based on data for 2005-20). However, the data point to the potential for significant expansion in service sector employment over the same period, particularly in the financial services sector. Communications – which includes the logistics and distribution industry – and the health care sector are also projected to see a strong rate of employment growth. xv. Over the same period, the Borough is expected to experience falls in the number of people employed in some sectors. The food, drink and tobacco industry, the transport sector and Ref: A-00352 Page iii Knowsley MBC: Core Evidence Base hotels & catering are all projected to experience falls in employment. Efforts to support growing sectors, assist people to seek work elsewhere in the Borough and Merseyside and encourage more people to take up enterprise could play an important part in offsetting these effects. Economic Activity and Inactivity xvi. The Core Evidence Base underlines the importance which Knowsley MBC and its partners have attached to ensuring that more residents are in work, training and education. Around 73% of the Borough’s working age population of 89,000 are economically active, a figure which is 3 percentage points behind the North West and 5 percentage points behind the UK. In order to achieve the national rate, an additional 8,500 residents would have to become economically active. xvii. Rates of economic activity are particularly low in North Huyton, where just 56% of the area’s working age population is economically active and a large proportion of these (17%) are unemployed. The rates of economic activity in South Kirkby (61%) and North Kirkby (62%) are also well below the Knowsley Borough average. xviii. The number of people claiming Incapacity Benefit (IB) or Severe Disability Allowance (SDA) is a particularly significant issue for Knowsley Borough. The proportion of the working age population who are on long term sickness benefits is 28%, 12 percentage points higher than the national rate and 7 percentage points higher than the regional rate. Incapacity benefit or Severe Disablement Allowance is claimed by just over 13% of the working age population. While the Borough has clearly had recent success in creating jobs, the latest data indicate that 4.3% of the population are in receipt of Job Seekers Allowance, the highest rate on Merseyside and 2 percentage points ahead of both the national and regional figures. xix. As Figure 1-3 shows, there are clearly positive signs that the Borough is reducing economic inactivity rates.

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