Greek Market Daily
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December 29, 2020 , 2015 Greek Market Daily ` TODAY’S FOCUS The market rose by +2.92% yesterday on higher volumes. Piraeus Bank (+15.06%), Aegean Airlines (+9.60%) and Alpha Bank (+7.18%) were the top outperformers, while ATHEX Data Lamda Development (-0.00%), Coca Cola Hellenic (-0.15%) and Ellaktor (-4.01%) were Close Daily YTD General Index 810.44 2.92% -11.59% the top underperformers. Turnover increased by €18.6m d-o-d to €59.7m with the highest FTSE-Large Cap 1,943.14 3.14% -15.44% trading activity in Alpha Bank (€10.5m), National Bank (€7.6m) and Eurobank (€4.5m). We FTSE-Mid Cap 1,092.77 2.57% -8.57% Euroxx Research Euroxx expect year-end rally to continue, also supported by int’l trends. Market Cap (€m) 53,515 +2.39% -12.6% Turnover (€m) 59.74 45.21% 64.19 MACRO/POLITICS NEWS 835 220 815 200 795 The Greek FinMin said that the Ministry of Finance, in the framework of its public debt 180 775 management programme for 2021, has started the process for a new early repayment of 755 160 IMF loans with maturities in 2021 and 2022, in the near future, amounting to 735 140 715 approximately €3.6bn 120 695 100 According to the official announcement, this It the second early repayment by the current 675 government within a year, thus repaying €6.3bn i.e. c80% of the total IMF loans of c€8bn: 655 80 635 60 "With this new repayment, the Greek State achieves the optimal utilization of its cash 615 40 resources, the reduction of interest rate and FX risk, the reduction of refinancing risk for 595 575 20 the next two years, while the public debt sustainability is further improved. Due to these 555 0 factors, this new early repayment is expected to be positively perceived by both by the 25-Nov 27-Nov 1-Dec 3-Dec 7-Dec 9-Dec 11-Dec 15-Dec 17-Dec 21-Dec 23-Dec Turnover General Index credit rating agencies and the international investment community”. FTSE-Large Cap Movers CORPORATE NEWS Piraeus Bank 15.06% Aegean Airlines 9.60% Alpha Bank 7.18% ➢ Ellaktor <HELr.AT/ELLAKTOR GA, €1.65, U/R, TP: U/R> Announced that National Bank 6.03% PPC 4.90% Reggeborgh Invest with transactions on 18 and 23Dec’20 raised its direct stake Piraeus Port Authority 0.61% in Ellaktor to 14.1761% from 10.3616% previously; remember that it also holds Cenergy 0.59% since 10Sept’20 a call option of 26,882,023 Ellaktor shares, which account for Lamda Development 0.00% 12.5457% of total Coca Cola Hellenic -0.15% Ellaktor -4.01% ➢ Energy Sector – RAE announced that a RES auction is scheduled for 24May’21, Macro Data applications by 22March’21, offering wind (in category I of <50MW) and solar Close Daily (*) YTD (*) energy (in category II of <20MW) capacities of 350MW; moreover, a maximum 3m Euribor -0.54% -0.1 -15.9 price of €53.86/MWh was set 20yr Bond yield 1.02% +0.0 -121.6 10yr Bond yield 0.65% +0.0 -81.7 Greek retail electricity market: IPPs market share dropped to 33.67% in Nov’20 10yr Bond spread +120.1 +0.2 -8 USD / Euro 1.22 0.11% 9.0% (according to data from Greek Energy Exchange - EnEx) – total demand up by 11% Crude Oil 48.17 -0.12% -21.1% y-o-y; Monthly average Clearing Price at €52.66/MWh, up by €5.38/MWh m-o-m, GDP growth -11.7% Q3’20 - down by €2.7/MWh y-o-y CPI -2.1% Nov’20 - Mytilineos’ Protergia ranks first with 7.97%, GEK-Terna’s Heron follows with 6.55%, and (*) in bps unless otherwise stated Hellenic Petroleum-Edison’s Elpedison with 4.67%. As a result, PPC’s retail market share Source: Bloomberg in Nov’20 rose to 66.33%. Remember that the MoU target calls for PPCs’ market share to Corporate/Macro Calendar 29/12/2020: - fall below 50% by 2020e; however, PPC’s management had stated that company’s budget for 2020e assumes a market share of 65%. Regarding the Generation mix traded in the Day-Ahead Market, Natural Gas ranks first with 40% of total, RES follows with 32%, Lignite Plants and Imports contributed 13% and finally, Hydro Plants 2%. 04/01/2021: Piraeus Bank – CoCos Conversion Date 07/01/2021: Ellaktor – EGM ➢ Piraeus Bank <BOPr.AT/TPEIR GA, €1.23, Overweight, TP: €1.55> Announced the 18/01/2021: Eurogroupo Meeting - Brussels signing of a binding agreement with Intrum for the Phoenix NPE portfolio (€1.9bn of residential mortgage NPEs); According to the announcement, the implied valuation of the portfolio based on the nominal value of the senior notes and the sale price of the mezzanine notes corresponds to 50% of the total gross book value of the portfolio; Pro-forma for the transaction, Piraeus Bank’s NPE ratio will be reduced to 44% from 47%, while the NPE coverage ratio will increase to 46% from 45% in Sept’20 ➢ Eurobank <EURBr.AT/EUROB GA, €0.606, O/W, TP: €0.75> According to press reports, Eurobank proceeded with a swap with the Hellenic Republic of GGBs of nominal value of €1.2bn with 30-year GGBs at market value plus cash; Reportedly, Eurobank will realise a capital gain of €155m, hence strengthening its capital ratios by about 40bps Please refer to important disclosures in the Disclosure Appendix December 29, 2020 ➢ PPC <DEHr.AT/PPC GA, €7.50, O/W, TP: €5.50> According to a joint ministerial decision signed by the Ministers of Finance and Energy, PPC will receive a cash injection of €590m as a down payment for the Greek State’s electricity needs for 2021e; first installment of €200m expected by 31Dec’20, and the remaining €390m to be received by Feb’21e Please refer to important disclosures in the Disclosure Appendix December 29, 2020 IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES Analyst Certification The analysts identified on the bottom of this report certify that the written views about each company and security he/she covers reflects only his/her personal opinions and estimates and his/her compensation are not linked to any investment banking services provided by Euroxx. 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