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Report Sample Willowmoor Restoration Design Hydrology Phase 1 – Hydrologic Characterization October 2013 Willowmoor Restoration Design Hydrology Phase 1 – Hydrologic Characterization Prepared for: King County River and Floodplain Management Section Prepared by: Northwest Hydraulic Consultants Seattle, WA October 2013 Executive Summary King County (County) is planning the Willowmoor Project, a flood control and habitat restoration project for the Sammamish River Transition Zone (TZ), which extends from the Lake Sammamish outlet weir approximately 1,400 feet downstream through Marymoor Park. Northwest Hydraulic Consultants (NHC) was contracted by the County to provide recommendations for design hydrology for the Willowmoor project. The initial phase of this work focuses on characterizing the original U.S. Army Corps of Engineers (Corps) design hydrology within the current hydrologic context and on identifying potential future hydrologic conditions to provide background for a robust project design. The Sammamish River Flood Control Project was completed by the Corps in 1964 to provide spring flood control for the Sammamish River valley. The project was designed to accommodate an event similar to the March 1950 storm, which was the spring flow of record at the time. The design objectives were to eliminate flooding for a design flow of 1,500 cfs in the Sammamish River downstream of Bear Creek while keeping Lake Sammamish levels below 29.0 feet NGVD (32.6 feet NAVD).1 The design flow was characterized by the Corps as a 10-year annual flood or a 40-year spring flood, meaning that on average that flow had a ten percent chance of occurring at all or a 2.5 percent chance of occurring after March 1 in any given year. This frequency estimate is relatively consistent with results of current frequency analysis on 18 years of peak flow data (1940-1957) from the discontinued Sammamish River near Redmond gage that would have been available to the Corps during project design. The original Lake Sammamish outlet weir was modified in 1998 to enhance summer flows to improve fish passage into Lake Sammamish. Modifications included adding a low flow notch and flattening the weir profile on either side of the notch. The change to the weir profile resulted in raising the crest elevation by up to half a foot. Water levels in Lake Sammamish, and corresponding discharges, have been shown to be affected by conditions through the TZ and downstream to Bear Creek. Vegetation management practices in the TZ downstream of the weir have varied over time, and impacts of different vegetation conditions on flow capacity in the TZ have been demonstrated in several previous studies and by shifts in the stage- discharge relationship at the weir corresponding to changes in vegetation management. A reduction in lake outflows associated with high Bear Creek discharges—the Bear Creek backwater effect—has been demonstrated with measurements showing variable discharge at the weir for the same lake level during large events and can be reproduced by a hydraulic model of the system. Existing hydrologic and hydraulic models of the Lake Sammamish/Sammamish River system have been used to characterize existing conditions—e.g., to determine flood inundation extents for FEMA mapping—and to explore the sensitivity or impact to the system of observed and proposed changes in the TZ, such as vegetation and sediment levels. The hydraulic model is well-calibrated to water levels at the weir and downstream of the TZ and reproduces lake levels quite well. The hydrologic models, which have been used to estimate long periods of inflows for the hydraulic model, are less accurate in reproducing observed flows on Bear Creek and Issaquah Creek. Based on nearly 50 years of observed peak flows since construction of the weir, the 10-year flow in the Sammamish River downstream of Bear Creek is currently about 2,000 cfs, which is 33 percent higher than the 10-year flow characterized by the Corps during project design. It seems likely that this increase 1 Lake Sammamish water levels have been customarily expressed relative to the NGVD29 (or MSL) datum. The conversion factor to the NAVD88 vertical datum is +3.59 feet. This report will clearly indicate the datum for any elevations and provide elevations on both scales where reasonable. Willowmoor Design Hydrology Phase 1 i October 2013 is primarily a result of the original project, which increased the capacity of the lake outlet and downstream channel. Development in parts of the basin, especially Bear Creek and east Lake Sammamish, has likely contributed to increased peak flows, but would not be expected to have so substantial an impact in a system with significant storage, as is provided by Lake Sammamish. Examination of precipitation and streamflow trends indicates that climate is also not a driving factor; there is no long-term evidence of increasing precipitation or streamflow trends. Analysis of lake levels, however, shows a significant increase in the amount of time that Lake Sammamish exceeds the Corps-defined ordinary high water (OHW) level of 27 feet NGVD (30.6 feet NAVD). This is consistent with anecdotal reports from lakeside homeowners. Both visual inspection and statistical tests suggest that higher lake levels begin around 1998, and these changes would be consistent with weir modifications that reduce lake outflow at low to moderate lake levels. The data do not link the weir modifications as clearly to maximum lake levels (above about 28 feet NGVD). In looking at the historic events with the highest observed lake levels, we can identify a number of contributing factors. Inflow is certainly a primary driver but cannot explain the lack of strong correspondence between the events with the highest peaks or inflow volumes and those with the highest lake levels. Examination of the record indicates that lake level prior to the event (i.e., the starting condition) and coincident high flows on Bear Creek are also recurring factors in several extreme lake level events. Different lake level response to events where inflow, starting level, and Bear Creek flows are similar also suggests that vegetation conditions in the TZ have an influence on high lake levels. It is interesting to note that nearly 90 percent of the events where the lake has exceeded 29 feet NGVD (32.6 feet NAVD) since 1964 have occurred since 1989, when annual TZ maintenance was discontinued. In contrast, only half of the highest Issaquah Creek flows in the same period have been since 1989. (Issaquah Creek is the largest tributary to Lake Sammamish and the only one with a streamflow record extending back to completion of the Sammamish River project.) The review and analyses documented in this report provide a characterization of the current hydrologic setting and the various factors and influences that have affected performance of the weir and TZ over the past couple of decades. Hydrologic design conditions for the Willowmoor project will need to take into account these various influences on flow and lake level. For this reason, and because the project is expected to have a broader range of objectives, it is unlikely that a single design flow and lake elevation can continue to be used. The design process will also need to take some account of potential future hydrologic conditions to ensure that the selected project will continue to meet performance objectives going forward. Willowmoor Design Hydrology Phase 1 ii October 2013 Table of Contents 1 Introduction ......................................................................................................................................... 1 2 Review of Previous Studies .................................................................................................................. 1 2.1 Project History .............................................................................................................................. 2 2.2 Hydrologic Data Analysis ............................................................................................................... 4 2.2.1 Lake Levels ............................................................................................................................ 4 2.2.2 Hydrologic Trends ................................................................................................................. 6 2.3 Existing Models ............................................................................................................................. 7 2.3.1 HSPF Models ......................................................................................................................... 8 2.3.2 HEC-RAS Model ................................................................................................................... 12 3 Statistical Analysis .............................................................................................................................. 13 3.1 Corps Design Flows ..................................................................................................................... 13 3.2 Lake Level Analysis ...................................................................................................................... 14 3.2.1 Exceedance Analysis ........................................................................................................... 17 3.2.2 Lake Level Trends ................................................................................................................ 19 3.3 Extreme Lake Level Events .........................................................................................................
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