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California Adaptation Planning Guide

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California Adaptation Planning Guide CALIFORNIA ADAPTATION PLANNING GUIDE March 2020 FINAL PUBLIC REVIEW DRAFT California Adaptation Planning Guide CALIFORNIA ADAPTATION PLANNING GUIDE March 2020 Prepared For: The California Governor’s Office of Emergency Services 3650 Schriever Avenue Mather, CA 95655 www.caloes.ca.gov With Funding Support From: Federal Emergency Management Agency 1111 B roa d wa y, Su ite 12 0 0 Oakland, CA 94607-4052 With Technical Support From: PlaceWorks 3 MacArthur Place, Suite 1100 Santa Ana, California 92707 www.placeworks.com Climate Resolve ICF Michael R. Boswell, Ph.D., AICP Adrienne I. Greve, Ph.D. FINAL PUBLIC REVIEW DRAFT • March 2020 iii California Adaptation Planning Guide Table of Contents Introduction 1 What is the APG?. .2 Who Developed the APG and Why? . 7 Who Should Use the APG? . 10 How Should the APG Be Used? . 11 What Is Climate Adaptation Planning? . .14 How Is California Vulnerable to Climate Change?. 21 What are the State’s Climate Resilience Efforts? . 24 How Is Equity Integrated into Climate Change Adaptation Planning?. 28 How Is Uncertainty Addressed in Climate Adaptation Planning? . 30 Who Should be Involved?. .30 Wrap-Up . .31 Phase 1: Define, Explore, and Initiate 33 Step 1.1: Confirm Motivation and Scope of the Process and Outcome . .35 Step 1.2: Assemble Project Team(s) and Resources. 48 Step 1.3: Identify Community Climate Effects and Elements. 55 Step 1.4: Prepare an Equitable Outreach and Engagement Approach . 66 Phase 1 Wrap-Up. 76 Phase 2: Assess Vulnerability 77 Step 2.1: Exposure. 80 Step 2.2: Sensitivity and Potential Impacts . .86 Step 2.3: Adaptive Capacity . 92 Step 2.4: Vulnerability Scoring. 96 Step 2.5: Outreach and Engagement. 100 Phase 2 Wrap-Up. .102 Phase 3: Define Adaptation Framework and Strategies 103 Step 3.1: Summarize Vulnerability. 105 Step 3.2: Confirm Vision and Goals. 107 Step 3.3: Prepare Adaptation Strategies. 109 Step 3.4: Prioritize Adaptation Strategies. 121 Step 3.5: Conduct Outreach and Engagement . .123 Phase 3 Wrap-up. .130 FINAL PUBLIC REVIEW DRAFT • March 2020 v Phase 4: Implement, Monitor, Evaluate, and Adjust 131 Community and Stakeholder Engagement in Phase 4. 132 Step 4.1: Implement. .132 Step 4.2: Monitor. 142 Step 4.3: Evaluate. .144 Step 4.4: Adjust. .145 Phase 4 Wrap-Up. .147 Definitions 149 Appendix A: Sector Summaries A-1 Agriculture Sector . A-1 Biodiversity and Habitat Sector . .A-4 Emergency Management Sector . .A-8 Energy Sector. .A -11 Forests Sector . .A-15 Land Use and Community Development Sector. A-17 Ocean and Coast Sector. .A-19 Parks and Recreation Sector . A-21 Public Health Sector. A-23 Transportation Sector . A-25 Water Sector. A-28 Appendix B: Adaptation Pathways: An Overview B-1 Steps to Taking an Adaptation Pathways Approach. B-6 Appendix C: Adaptation Planning Resources C-1 State of California Resources . .C-1 Federal Resources . C-4 Nongovernmental Resources. .C-5 Appendix D: Examples of Local Adaptation Strategies by Sector D-1 vi Introduction California Adaptation Planning Guide Endnotes E-1 Introduction. E-1 Phase 1: Define, Explore, and Initiate. .E-3 Phase 2: Assess Vulnerability. E-5 Phase 3: Define Adaptation Framework and Strategies. .E-6 Phase 4: Implement, Monitor, Evaluate, and Adjust . E-7 Definitions . .E-9 Appendix A. E-13 Appendix B. E-16 Appendix C. E-16 Appendix D. E-16 FINAL PUBLIC REVIEW DRAFT • March 2020 vii List of Tables Table 1. What is the California Adaptation Planning Guide. 4 Table 2. Qualitative Description of Historical and Expected Climate Effects in California. 23 Table 3. Types of Equity in Adaptation Planning. .29 Table 4. Estimated Time Frame for All Phases of the APG. .46 Table 5. Example Lists of Climate-Related Effects and Hazards by Source . 57 Table 6. Examples of Lists of Climate Hazards by Community . .58 Table 7. IAP2 Public Participation Spectrum. 74 Table 8. Excerpt of Wildfire History from San Diego County’s LHMP. .81 Table 9. Excerpt of Historic Wildfire Impacts from San Diego County’s LHMP . 88 Table 10. Potential Impact and Adaptive Capacity Scoring Rubric. .98 Table 11. Example Table of Descriptions and Vulnerability Scores . 99 Table 12. Questions to Insure Equity in Adaptation Process . .128 Table 13. Example of Beach Erosion Adaptation Options . 146 Table D-1. Examples of Local Climate Adaptation Strategies by Sector. D-1 viii Introduction California Adaptation Planning Guide List of Figures Figure 1. Adaptation Planning Process . 2 Figure 2. State and Federal Resources Related to the APG. .3 Figure 3. Illustration of the Roles of GHG Emissions Reduction and Climate Adaptation in Combating the Sources and Effects of Climate Change. .16 Figure 4. State Adaptation Sectors. .27 Figure 5. Steps in Phase 1. .34 Figure 6. Types of Plans and Programs. 37 Figure 7. Root Causes and Factors Affecting Sensitivity to Climate Change . .68 Figure 8. Regional Resilience Toolkit’s Identity Stakeholder and Stakeholder Mapping. .72 Figure 9. Steps in Phase 2. .78 Figure 10. Vulnerability Assessment Steps Defined. .79 Figure 11. Vulnerability Score Matrix . 98 Figure 12. Steps in Phase 3. 103 Figure 13. Example Templates and Worksheet from the Regional Resilience Toolkit 124 Figure 14. Long Beach Adaptation Strategy. .125 Figure 15. Example Game to Engage Residents. .126 Figure 16. An Example of Community Adaptation Solutions and Transformative Actions. 127 Figure 17. Steps in Phase 4. 131 Figure B-1. Adaptation Planning Process . B-5 FINAL PUBLIC REVIEW DRAFT • March 2020 ix List of Abbreviations AB Assembly Bill APG Adaptation Planning Guide ART Adapting to Rising Tides BCDC San Francisco Bay Conservation and Development Commission CalBRACE California Building Resilience Against Climate Effects CAL FIRE California Department of Forestry and Fire Protection Cal OES Governor’s Office of Emergency Services CAP climate action plan CBPR community-based participatory research CDPH California Department of Public Health CHAT California Heat Assessment Tool CIP capital improvement program Coastal Commission California Coastal Commission COG council of governments FEMA Federal Emergency Management Agency GHG(s) greenhouse gas(es) GIS Geographic Information Systems ICARP Integrated Climate Adaptation and Resilience Program IPCC Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change IRWM integrated regional water management IRWMP integrated regional water management plan LCP local coastal program LHMP local hazard mitigation plan OES Governor’s Office of Emergency Services OPC Ocean Protection Council OPR Governor’s Office of Planning and Research SB Senate Bill SHMP state hazard mitigation plan TAC technical advisory council WUI wildland-urban interface x Introduction California Adaptation Planning Guide INTRODUCTION Local government has an important role to play in efforts to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and limit the impacts While California’s state of climate change. The State of California government proudly advances provides resources to local governments initiatives to mitigate and adapt to support local action on climate to the effects of climate change, change. The California Adaptation local and regional government Planning Guide (APG) continues this agencies are critical partners effort by providing guidance to support implementing and pushing communities in addressing consequences forward climate action. To best of climate change. serve the people of California on responding to the challenges of To support local and regional adaptation climate change, coordination planning efforts, the state has developed across different levels of an integrated set of policies and tools: government is necessary. Local, • California Adaptation Planning regional, and federal agency Guide (this guide) partners have key jurisdictional • Safeguarding California Plan: responsibilities that must be California’s Climate Adaptation integrated to achieve resilience Strategy (2018 Update) to climate change in every area • Cal-Adapt 2.0 (released October of the state, and California’s 2017 and updated regularly, most administration is a committed recently January 2020) and engaged partner for those • California’s Climate Change agencies’ adaptation efforts. Assessment (most recently updated - from Safeguarding California, in 2018) page 14. • State of California General Plan Guidelines (updated periodically, most recently updated in 2017) • Adaptation Clearinghouse • State Hazard Mitigation (2018 Update) FINAL PUBLIC REVIEW DRAFT • March 2020 1 What is the APG? The APG provides guidance to local governments on local adaptation and resiliency planning. As illustrated in Figure 1 and described in Table 1, the APG presents an updated, step-by-step process that communities can use to plan for climate change. The APG is designed to be flexible and guide communities in adaptation planning that best suits their needs, whether taking a preliminary broad look at adaptation issues or conducting a detailed formal planning process. The APG also provides the most recent summaries of statewide information and guidance on where to find and how to use key planning tools. Since the state’s release of the first APG in 2012, it has been widely used by communities, government agencies, tribal governments, nongovernmental organizations, institutions, and others throughout California to help guide adaptation planning efforts. In 2020, the state updated the APG to reflect the latest best practices; to integrate recent updates to state plans, policies, programs, and regulations (see Figure 2); and to ensure that communities have guidance on using the best
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