Inflation, Interest Rates, and Hyperinflation

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INFLATION, INTEREST RATES, AND HYPERINFLATION Demand for goods depends on the real interest rate: Y = A(Y, i-B) Demand for money on the nominal interest rate: M/P = L(Y, i) In the long run, economy tends to natural rate of output Yn. This means that it tends to “natural” real interest rate i-B = rn Recipe for steady inflation: let M grow at a steady rate )M/M = gM Then guess that price level also grows at a steady rate B = gM, and that real interest rate remains at rn. Then )(M/P)/(M/P) = )M/M - )P/P = 0 So M/P constant; Y constant at Yn, i constant at rn + gM End of story But notice that higher B => higher i => lower M/P SEIGNORAGE: THE REVENUE FROM MONEY PRINTING Government gets “revenue” by printing additional money; the real revenue is S = )M/P (change in money supply divided by price level) or rewrite it S = ()M/M)(M/P) = gM(M/P) In steady inflation, however, i = rn+gM - and M/P is a decreasing fn. of i So seignorage does not necessarily increase with rate of money growth; typical shape is “inverted U”: But what if the government “needs” seignorage greater than maximum? Turn the equation around: )M ' S M M/P As people start to expect inflation, M/P falls; this means )M/M rises; means further fall in M/P, etc. Result: Hyperinflation!! FIXED EXCHANGE RATES AND DEVALUATION Aggregate demand in an open economy with a fixed exchange rate: No monetary policy! i = i* So Y = A(Y, i*) + NX(Y, Y*, EP*/P) Higher P means lower output because it makes our goods less competitive on world market Meanwhile, AS curve: P = P-1G(Y, z) Suppose we increase E (a devaluation): A devaluation can produce only a temporary expansion in output. But suppose for some reason the economy is currently below Yn. Then a devaluation can “truncate” the process of adjustment, eliminating need for a prolonged deflation: OPTIMAL CURRENCY AREA: Tradeoff between macroeconomic advantages of devaluation or floating, microeconomic advantages of fixed rates or common currency (reduced costs of doing business, less uncertainty) Should two countries fix rates, perhaps adopt common currency? Factors to consider: 1. Labor mobility (makes adjustment easy) 2. Large volume of trade (makes uncertainty costly) 3. Fiscal arrangements (can cushion adjustment) 4. Similarity of economic structure 5. Credibility issues Some interesting cases: Europe; Argentina; Australia; Mexico; Canada.

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