Scaling India-Japan Cooperation in Indo-Pacific and Beyond 2025 Corridors, Connectivity and Contours
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This book aims to examine the Economic Partnership without scope and potential of India- overlooking India’s interest, Japan cooperation factoring are testing the character of infrastructure connectivity and India-Japan relations which the corridors in Indo-Pacific. The volume covers at length. volume examines the bilateral, in Indo-Pacific and Beyond 2025 trilateral and multilateral Scaling India-Japan Cooperation contours of the growing partnership in the backdrop of a rising China that is rapidly changing the geo-political order of the region. The volume examines the scope of India-Japan relations beyond 2025 and evaluates how their Dr. Jagannath P. Panda is a common pledge to have a Research Fellow and Centre “partnership for prosperity” Coordinator for East Asia at the is not free from challenges. Institute for Defence Studies China’s Belt and Road and Analyses (IDSA), New Delhi, Initiative, the United States’ India. He is an expert on China, bilateral-oriented approach East Asia and Indo-Pacific. Dr. towards Asia, and the struggle Panda is the Series Editor for to successfully conclude the Routledge Studies on Think Asia. Scaling India-Japan Cooperation Jagannath P. Panda (Ed.) Regional Comprehensive in Indo-Pacific and Beyond 2025 Corridors, Connectivity and Contours ` 1280.00 ISBN 978-93-89137-29-3 KNOWLEDGE WORLD KW PUBLISHERS PVT LTD Editor www.kwpub.com Jagannath P. Panda Scaling India-Japan Cooperation in Indo-Pacific and Beyond 2025 Corridors, Connectivity and Contours Scaling India-Japan Cooperation in Indo-Pacific and Beyond 2025 Corridors, Connectivity and Contours Editor Jagannath P. Panda KNOWLEDGE WORLD KW Publishers Pvt Ltd New Delhi Copyright © 2020 Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses, New Delhi All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system, or transmitted, in any form or by any means, electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording, or otherwise, without first obtaining written permission of the copyright owner. Disclaimer: The views expressed in this book are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect those of the Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses, or the Government of India. Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses No. 1, Development Enclave, Delhi Cantt. New Delhi-110 010 Phone: +91-11-26717983 Website: www.idsa.in ISBN 978-93-89137-29-3 Hardback Published in India by Kalpana Shukla KW Publishers Pvt Ltd 4676/21, First Floor, Ansari Road Daryaganj, New Delhi 110 002 Phone: +91 11 23263498/43528107 Marketing: [email protected] Editorial: [email protected] Website: www.kwpub.com Printed and bound in India The content of this book is the sole expression and opinion of its author(s), and not of the publisher. The publisher in no manner is liable for any opinion or views expressed by the author(s). While best efforts have been made in preparing the book, the publisher makes no representations or warranties of any kind and assumes no liabilities of any kind with respect to the accuracy or completeness of the content and specifically disclaims any implied warranties of merchantability or fitness of use of a particular purpose. The publisher believes that the contents of this book do not violate any existing copyright/intellectual property of others in any manner whatsoever. However, in case any source has not been duly attributed, the publisher may be notified in writing for necessary action. Contents Foreword ix Preface xiii Acknowledgements xvii Notes on Contributors xix List of Abbreviations xxvii 1. India-Japan Cooperation in the Indo-Pacific: A Primer 1 Jagannath P. Panda PART - I Connectivity, Corridors and Contours: The Inter-Continental Context 2. Framing a Eurasia Link in India-Japan Global Ties 23 Jagannath P. Panda and Mrittika Guha Sarkar 3. Innovation, Value Chain and Structural Linkages in Asia-Africa Growth Corridor 56 Srabani Roy Choudhury PART - II Bilateral Perceptions and Strategic Significance: Resources and Technology 4. Infrastructure Connectivity and Corridors in Prime Minister Modi’s Japan Policy 77 K.V. Kesavan 5. Connectivity and Corridors in Shinzo Abe’s Indo-Pacific Foreign Policy: 2025 and Beyond 95 Ryohei Kasai 6. Technology and Resource Imperatives in India-Japan Relations 108 A.D. Gnanagurunathan vi • Scaling India-Japan Cooperation in Indo-Pacific and Beyond 2025 7. Role of Forums and Institutional Mechanisms in the India-Japan Partnership of Prosperity 122 Shamshad A. Khan PART - III Financing Projects and Policies: The Economic Imperatives 8. The Asian Context: Chinese Economy and India-Japan Ties 153 Raviprasad Narayanan 9. Prospects of the Free and Open Indo-Pacific Initiatives and India-Japan Partnership 170 Takashi Terada 10. Infrastructure Financing and Institutional Statecraft: Japan’s Role in India’s Modernisation 195 Titli Basu 11. Infrastructure Investment: EPQI, BRI and the Emerging Asian Contest 219 Amrita Jash PART - IV Infrastructure and Maritime Congruence in Indo-Pacific 12. India-Japan Strategic Partnership: Imperatives for Ensuring ‘Good Order at Sea’ in the Indo-Pacific 243 Abhay Kumar Singh 13. Chabahar: The Fault-line in India-Japan Infrastructure Cooperation 264 Kenta Aoki 14 China’s Maritime Policy in the Bay of Bengal: How does it Affect India’s and Japan’s Maritime Interests? 284 Takuya Shimodaira 15. India and Japan in Bay of Bengal: Strategic Convergence to Maritime Security 303 Madhuchanda Ghosh Index 327 List of Figures, Tables and Map Figure 7.1 India-Japan Summit Level Dialogues in the Cold War and Post-Cold War Period 125 7.2 Mechanisms Emanating from India-Japan Summit 129 7.3 India-Japan Bilateral Trade pre- and post-CEPA 132 7.4 Growing Japanese Industrial Footprint in India 132 8.1 The One Belt One Road—China’s Weltanschauung… 159 8.2 The One Belt One Road—Tightening Belt? 162 9.1 Trade Flows between Japan and India (billion, JP¥) 189 10.1 IMF World Economic Outlook Update, January 2019 199 10.2 Asian Development Outlook 2018, ADB 200 10.3 Regional Share of Global Infrastructure Investment, 2007–40 201 10.4 Foreign Aid Received by India in the last 10 Years 208 10.5 Infrastructure Financing in India’s Strategic Northeast 209 10.6 JICA Soft Loans Major Sector (FY2008/09-2017/18) 210 Tables 2.1 Trade Comparison between Central Asian Republics and India, Japan and China 36 4.1 ODA Loans and Disbursements: Japanese Yen in billions 80 10.1 Financing in Northeast through ADB and JICA 212 13.1 India’s Foreign Policy Matrix (Mandala) 269 Map 2.1 India’s International North-South Transport Corridor and China’s Silk Road Economic Belt (SREB) 37 Foreword Today, one of our most promising bilateral relations of the 21st century is the “India-Japan Special Strategic and Global Partnership”. It is a relationship which is Special in many ways and Global in its implications. Our ties with Japan, both economic and strategic, stand fundamentally transformed in recent years. The relevance of the India-Japan strategic partnership is even more profound in a world in which change and uncertainty are the only constants. The old equilibrium has been disrupted while a new equilibrium is yet to emerge. We may even have entered a century of extended uncertainty. Key drivers of globalisation such as the liberal trading order and the flow of goods, services, capital and technology are being reassessed. Power remains fractured. Traditional and non-traditional security threats, including cross-border terrorism, have grown in magnitude. All known paradigms are experiencing stress. Hedging and multi-alignment are part of every country’s toolkit. This calls for major readjustments and a new consensus. Asia, home to 60 per cent of the global population, has done exceptionally well on the economic front to emerge as the new fulcrum for global economic growth. The continent is witnessing the simultaneous economic rise of several powers accompanied by some of the highest military expenditures in the world. However, a stable regional security architecture has yet to emerge organically. The sheer pace at which China has enhanced its comprehensive national power has also led to questions about the shape of things to come. x • Scaling India-Japan Cooperation in Indo-Pacific and Beyond 2025 Today, there is open friction over sovereignty and territorial claims. There are unresolved boundary disputes. There are also differences with regard to the alternative models of developmental finance for connectivity projects. Asia’s geography is also increasingly being redefined by the emerging concept of the Indo-Pacific which recognises the new realities of growth and development in a much wider arc. The Indo- Pacific also underscores the importance of treating the terrestrial and maritime domains of two great oceans as one seamless strategic space. Today, every country is intertwined in a web of trade and investment ties. The level of interdependence is unprecedented. This makes for very difficult strategic choices when it comes to options for building a stable security architecture. The Asian Century appears inevitable, however, what kind of a century it will be remains unclear. Will it be a century of peace and development, or will it involve long-drawn contestations and wars? Will we follow existing rules of the road? Will there be new rules of the road. Who will define these? Will there be consensus? The challenge before us is to achieve a balance of power and forge a new equilibrium in Asia. Amidst all these challenges, it is important that we continue to strive for peace, progress and development. There is no place for a re-emergence of neo-colonial versions of economic or security domination. There are multiple opportunities for India and Japan to work together on the basis of our national interests. I recall the words of Prime Minister Narendra Modi, who said in his address to the India-Japan Business Leaders Forum in 2018, “India and Japan will play a major role in Asia’s emergence”.